油脂震荡、白糖下挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块先扬后抑,马棕油产量和出口环比皆增加,但产量增幅 大于出口增幅,库存有增加预期,加之原油走软削弱棕榈油生柴吸引 力,棕榈油反弹空间受限,后市或偏弱运行。白糖受外盘跌势拖累而 下挫,国内进口糖利润窗口打开,后市到港量或将增大,对白糖带来 潜在供应压力,糖价短期或偏弱波动。生猪持续下跌,标肥价差倒挂, 中大猪产能释放,天气升温后猪肉需求转弱,施压猪价下跌,弱势料 持续。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油:先扬后抑,震荡偏弱 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约先扬后抑,收长影线小阳,行 情震荡,弱势未变: 1.原油走软削弱棕榈油生柴吸引力,马来西亚棕榈油产量和出口 数据环比增长,南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会(SPPOMA)和 MPOA 发 布的高频数据显示,5月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增长3.72% 和 3.51%,而出口亦增长,相关检验机构高频数据显示 5月1-20 日 马来西亚棕榈油出口量环比增加 1.55%和 1.53%。产量增幅大于出口 增幅,棕榈油库存有增加预期,棕油期价反弹受限,震荡回落。 2.国内棕榈油进口成本下行,买船量增加且已超过刚需,棕榈油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Focus on the US-Iran talks today for crude oil, and continue to look for shorting opportunities in polyolefin varieties [1] - Most of the analyzed commodities have a bearish or cautious outlook due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, and geopolitical issues Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: OPEC+ discussing large - scale production increase in July and potential new Iran nuclear deal create supply - demand concerns; medium - term supply surplus exists [2][3] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term oscillation; hold short positions on the hourly cycle [2][3] Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Cost pressure from falling crude oil, increased supply expected due to ethylene plant maintenance recovery and new capacity in Q2 [6] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term decline; hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 7465 [6] PX - **Logic**: Low profit, ongoing plant maintenance, increased downstream PTA demand; cost logic dominates after crude oil decline [7][10] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term rise; wait for shorting opportunities after breaking the support [10] PTA - **Logic**: Both supply and demand increase, but cost logic dominates after crude oil decline [11][13] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term rise; wait for shorting opportunities after breaking the support [13] PP - **Logic**: Limited impact from ethylene plant failure, narrowing export profit, future supply and cost pressures [17] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term decline; hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure and take - profit at the May 21 high [17] Methanol - **Logic**: Slightly lower domestic start - up, low traditional demand, potential port inventory build - up [18] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level decline; hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with take - profit at the May 22 high [18] Rubber - **Logic**: Short - term positive sentiment digested, high tire inventory, low demand, potential supply increase [21] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term oscillation; short at the upper end of the range on the hourly cycle [21] PVC - **Logic**: Expected increase in start - up after maintenance, weak terminal real - estate demand [25] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline; look for shorting opportunities on the hourly cycle [25] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Improved demand from polyester, but future supply pressure from new ethylene capacity [27] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term rise; hold 15 - minute short positions, stop - loss at 4455 [27] Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline; transfer 15 - minute short positions to the hourly cycle [28][30] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: Limited impact from ethylene plant failure, future supply increase of butadiene putting pressure on cost [32] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline; transfer 15 - minute short positions to the hourly cycle after breaking support [32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new round of production increase plan has pushed crude oil to increase positions and decline again, and polyester has followed. Polyolefins continue to focus on short - selling opportunities [1] - The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil always exists, and short - term geopolitical factors focus on the fifth round of US - Iran negotiations on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The news of OPEC+ discussing large - scale production increase in July pushed crude oil to increase positions and form a long negative line in the afternoon. The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic exists, and there is a tendency for a new Iran nuclear agreement. The short - term geopolitical focus is on the US - Iran fifth - round negotiation on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line, and the end of the session accelerated the decline. The short - term may test the previous low. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2] Styrene (EB) - Logic: There is pressure from the decline of crude oil at the cost end. At the supply end, the ethylene plant maintenance is restored, new production capacity is put into operation in the second quarter, and the supply is expected to increase strongly under the current high profit of styrene [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to yesterday's high [5] PX - Logic: PX profit is at a low level, the device is still in the maintenance period, the downstream PTA start - up rate is increasing, the demand is improving, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [7][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [10] PTA - Logic: The supply - end devices of PTA have increased, and at the same time, the polyester load and textile start - up rate at the demand end have also increased. The short - term fundamentals have improved, but after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [11][14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [14] PP - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved 2% of PP production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the expectation of demand improvement brought by the Sino - US easing, the actual export profit has narrowed, and the short - term export demand is difficult to have obvious increments. In the future, it will still face the supply pressure brought by the restart of the device and the cost pressure brought by the decline of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined without changing the downward path. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the short - term pressure and take - profit referring to yesterday's high [18] Methanol - Logic: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly month - on - month, the traditional demand fell to the year - on - year low, the port inventory remained stable at a low level, but it is facing the arrival pressure of the increase in Iranian shipments in early May, and the port inventory accumulation expectation is strong [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure of methanol is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined, continuing the downward path. The strategy is to transfer the 15 - minute - level short positions yesterday to the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 2285 line [20] Rubber - Logic: The short - term emotional bullishness of Sino - US easing has basically been digested. Currently, tire enterprises have the highest inventory year - on - year, the start - up rate is at a year - on - year low, downstream tires are not subject to equal tariffs, there is no expectation of export demand recovery, and the EU has launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, involving about 1.2 billion tires. At the supply end, the implementation effect of Thailand's suspension of the opening - cut order is not good, the production areas are gradually opening - cut, and the increment expectation is strong without abnormal weather, still showing a weak supply - demand expectation [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Recently, the trading volume at the upper edge of the shock range was insufficient, and it was difficult to break through. The upper pressure still refers to the high point on April 8th. Recently, it is still a narrow - range shock to repair the oversold situation by trading time for space. The hourly - cycle strategy is to short at the upper edge of the range [24] PVC - Logic: The start - up rate is the same as that of previous years, and there is an expectation of an increase in the start - up rate after the maintenance season. The terminal real - estate demand is still insufficient, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand continues [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of PVC is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term pressure still focuses on the 5015 line. The hourly - cycle strategy is to look for the opportunity to short when a reversal pattern appears [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The start - up rate of downstream polyester has increased, and the demand has improved. However, after the digestion of the unexpected shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant last week, the actual involved production capacity is about 6%, but the expected shutdown time is short and the impact is limited. In the future, it will face the supply pressure brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of EG is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term support below refers to the 4315 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 4455 line [30] Plastic - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term support below refers to the 7100 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with the take - profit referring to the 7225 high [31][33] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved about 2% of butadiene production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the digestion of emotions, it will face the pressure of increased butadiene supply brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity in the future. The butadiene storage capacity is low, and the price is likely to fall sharply after inventory accumulation, putting pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost end [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of synthetic rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term support still focuses on the low point on May 13th. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 12300 line [35][37]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows mixed performance. Palm oil, apples, and pigs are under downward pressure, while soybeans are rising, and cotton remains stable. The performance of each variety is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and international trade policies [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil market is under pressure due to factors such as increased production, rising inventories, and falling crude oil prices. The 2509 contract has reversed and fallen sharply, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position [1][2] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is driven by external markets, but the expected increase in domestic soybean arrivals and inventory may limit its upward space. The 2509 contract is oscillating upward, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Soybean Oil - The soybean oil market is affected by falling crude oil prices and increased domestic supply. The 2509 contract has fallen sharply, and the strategy is to sell at high prices [6] Corn - The corn market has rebounded technically, but the upcoming large - scale arrival of new wheat and the substitution effect may resist the rebound. The 2507 contract has rebounded from a low level, and short positions should be closed [9] Pig - The pig market is under pressure due to capacity release and weak demand. The 2509 contract has continued to fall, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position [10][12] Cotton - The cotton market is supported by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and good export data, but downstream demand has not fully recovered. The 2509 contract is fluctuating at a high level, and a light - long position is recommended [13][15] Sugar - The domestic sugar market has strong production and sales, but the upcoming increase in imports may put pressure on prices. The 2509 contract is oscillating, and short - term trading is recommended [16] Egg - The egg market is facing pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The 2507 contract is oscillating at a low level, and a light - short position is recommended [18] Apple - The apple market is affected by slowed sales and the impact of seasonal fruits. The 2510 contract has continued to fall sharply, and a light - short position is recommended [21] Peanut - The peanut market is supported by pre - holiday stocking and reduced imports. The 2510 contract has pulled back after rising, and a light - long position is recommended [22][24]

逻辑:今早美媒爆出以色列可能对伊朗发动袭击,原油受地缘担 忧小幅跳空高开,但无后续消息原油收复大半涨幅,解读与昨日哈梅 内伊讲话一样可视作美伊第五轮谈判前的施压,目前看美伊均有达成 新伊核协议动机,倾向于会出现新伊核协议。短期地缘关注美伊第五 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 品种 偏空 震荡 原油 空单持有 偏空 偏容 空单试空机会 EB 偏空 偏多 观望等短期破位 PX 观望等短期破位 偏空 偏多 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PP 小时观望,15分钟有试空机会 塑料 偏空 偏多 15 分钟有空单试空机会 甲醇 偏空 偏空 偏空 小时观望,15分钟有试空机会 偏多 EG 震荡区间上沿逢高空 橡胶 偏空 震荡 寻反抽结束做空机会 PVC 偏空 偏空 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏多 小时观望,15分钟有试空机会 板块观点汇总 轮谈判。中期供应过剩驱动的下一个时间节点是 6 月 1 日的 OPEC+ 月度会议。 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期下跌结构,小时级别短期震荡 结构。今日减仓反弹长上沿,视作反抽。策略上小时周期空单持有。 数据来源:天富期货研询部、文华财经 原油受消息扰动反抽之下聚酯类与聚烯烃 类分化,优先关注 ...

豆粕上涨、油脂震荡 一、农产品板块综述 焦点关注:豆粕主力合约 2509 合约上涨收长阳,突破短期横盘 区间,走势转强: 1. 南美阿根廷大豆产区遭遇暴雨袭击,可能损害大豆作物,美 豆走高,对国内豆类行情有所提振。国内市场 5 月 20 日主流油厂豆 粕成交暴增,创下逾一年新高,油厂积极预售2026年5月-7月基 差合约,大型饲料集团和贸易商积极采购,提振豆粕市场情绪。但是 国内进口大豆集中到港,市场预计 5 月份进口大豆到港 1300 万吨,6 月到港 1200万吨,油厂大豆周度压榨量将快速回升到 200万吨以上, 5月油厂豆粕库存将明显回升,或将限制豆粕的回升幅度。 2、豆粕主力 2509 合约大幅上涨,站上短期均线,向上突破短 期横盘区间,技术转强,策略上空单平仓,主力2509 合约支撑 2880, 阻力 2950。 (二) 棕榈油:反弹震荡,涨幅受限 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约窄幅震荡,涨幅受限: 1.棕榈油产地进入增产季,产量增长,南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协 会(SPPOMA)发布的数据显示,5月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量 环比增长 3.72%,而出口亦增长,相关调查机构数据显示 5 月 1 ...

一、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆粕: 震荡下跌 焦点关注:豆粕主力合约 2509 合约继续震荡下跌,受供应增加 压力: 1. 国家粮油信息中心预计 5 月份进口大豆到港 1300 万吨，6 月到港 1200 万吨,油厂大豆周度压榨量将快速回升到 200 万吨以上, 5 月油厂豆粕库存将明显回升，豆粕价格承压下跌。 2、豆粕主力 2509 合约扩大跌幅,期价继续在各均线之下运行, 技术偏弱，策略上轻仓空单，主力 2509 合约支撑 2865，阻力 2906。 豆粕、玉米下跌 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕期价震荡下行,因进口大豆集中到港,油厂压榨量将大量回 升,供应增加,施压豆粕走低。玉米持续下跌,小麦即将上市,贸易 商腾库收麦,玉米短期上量增加,且市场传闻将进行进口玉米拍卖, 令期价承压下行。鸡蛋跳空下行,因蛋鸡存栏高位,端午备货临近尾 声，走货放缓，中间环节库存增加，蛋价承压下行。 2.。豆油主力 2509 合约反弹收阳,但期价仍在均线系统之下波 动,技术弱势尚未改变,策略上轻仓空单,主力 2509 合约支撑 7706, 阻力 7806。 (二) 棕榈油:反弹震荡 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约反弹震荡: 1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, for individual commodities, the mid - term and short - term structures are as follows: - Crude oil: Mid - term and short - term both are bearish [1] - EB: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - PX: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - PTA: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - PP: Mid - term bearish, short - term switching for verification [1] - Urea: Mid - term neutral (sideways), short - term bullish [1] - Methanol: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - Rubber: Mid - term bearish, short - term sideways [1] - Caustic soda: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG): Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - Plastic: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening of the Iranian geopolitical situation has led to a continued decline in crude oil prices. The mid - term downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse due to the expected mid - term surplus caused by OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and short - term downward drivers include the significant weakening of potential geopolitical bullish factors and the expected increase in Iranian crude oil supply after the lifting of sanctions [1]. - For other commodities, short - term bullish factors are often related to macro - sentiment relief, downstream demand expectations, or temporary supply disruptions, but most face the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price after the release of short - term sentiment [1][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude oil - Logic: OPEC+ accelerating production increases leads to a mid - term surplus expectation, making the mid - term downward trend difficult to reverse. In the short term, the potential geopolitical bullish factors have significantly weakened, and the increase in Iranian crude oil supply after the lifting of sanctions is a short - term downward driver [1]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also bearish. Today, it increased positions and declined, continuing the downward path. The short - term resistance above is around 465. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 465 [1][2]. Benzene ethylene (EB) - Logic: The rebound of the early - week disk was driven by the relief of macro - sentiment, the expected recovery of downstream export demand, and the Hengli plant failure. However, the supply will return to normal, and it will face the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price after the release of short - term sentiment [6]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. Today, it tested the short - term support at 7515 after a decline. Whether it breaks through effectively is unclear, and it needs to wait for one or two more hourly lines for confirmation. The strategy is to wait for a short - selling opportunity on the rebound after breaking the support or try when it effectively breaks down and is not a long - negative line [6]. PX - Logic: The relief of macro - sentiment, the expected new round of "export rush" in the downstream, and the continuous de - stocking of PX and PTA have promoted the valuation repair and rebound. However, the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price will gradually appear after the release of short - term sentiment [7]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support still refers to the low point on May 13. The strategy is to wait for a short - selling opportunity on the rebound after breaking the support [9]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the relief of macro - sentiment, the expected new round of "export rush" in the downstream, and the continuous de - stocking of PX and PTA have promoted the valuation repair and rebound. But it will face the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price after the release of short - term sentiment [10]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support still refers to the low point on May 13. The strategy is to wait for a short - selling opportunity on the rebound after breaking the support [12]. PP - Logic: The low inventory this week, the short - term shutdown of Iranian plants, and the short - term sentiment of Sino - US relaxation stimulated the rebound. However, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable as the short - term sentiment fades and import pressure rises [13]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term upward structure may end. Today, it broke below the non - standard short - term support at 7135. The strategy is to look for a short - selling opportunity when the rebound fails to break through 7155 and forms a reversal pattern [15]. Urea - Logic: The news of opening up exports has been confirmed, but the total export volume will not exceed that in 2023. After the bullish factors are digested, the supply side has a strong expectation of increase due to sufficient profits. The upward space of this round of increase driven by export news is limited [16]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support below still focuses on the low point on May 8. The position has decreased at the recent high, and the trading volume has weakened, which needs to be tracked. The strategy is to wait and see for now [16]. Methanol - Logic: Similar to PP, the low inventory this week, the short - term shutdown of Iranian plants, and the short - term sentiment of Sino - US relaxation stimulated the rebound. However, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable as the short - term sentiment fades and import pressure rises [19]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level upward structure. It decreased positions and declined today. The short - term support still refers to 2330. The trading volume has weakened at the recent high, and the short - term upward trend is difficult to sustain. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and look for a short - selling opportunity after the breakdown [19]. Rubber - Logic: The short - term bullish sentiment of Sino - US relaxation has basically been digested. The tire enterprise operating rate has dropped significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. Although Thailand has postponed the start of tapping, the actual implementation may not be comprehensive, and the supply increase expectation is strong under normal weather conditions. It is still an expectation of weak supply and demand [23]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is sideways. The trading volume is insufficient at the upper edge of the oscillation range recently, and it is difficult to break through. The upper resistance still refers to the high point on April 8. It is still in a narrow - range oscillation to repair the oversold situation. The strategy is to wait and see for now [23]. Caustic soda - Logic: Low profit, high operating rate, non - aluminum off - season, and the expected recovery of alumina demand after restart. The short - term contradiction is not clear [24]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It decreased positions and declined today, and there are concerns in terms of trading volume. The short - term support below is around 2515. The strategy is to wait and see [24]. Ethylene glycol (EG) - Logic: The short - term bullish sentiment of Sino - US relaxation has basically been digested, the sentiment has weakened, and the upward space for further rebound is limited [26]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. The short - term support below refers to 4315. The strategy is to wait and see due to the divergence between the mid - term and short - term trends [26]. Plastic - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It decreased positions and declined today, and the short - term support below refers to 7100. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [30].

油脂续跌、玉米破位下行 一、农产品板块综述 油脂继续下跌,受到外盘美豆油暴跌拖累,因市场担忧美豆油在 生物燃料需求不及预期,令美豆油重挫,带动国内油脂板块走跌。棕 油产区进入增产季,马棕油4月产量和库存激增,后续月份将逐月增 加,压制棕榈油期价下跌。玉米期价破位下行,玉米深加工和养殖业 将进入淡季,需求或下降,小麦上市,替代压力增大,多头回吐令玉 米期价承压,后市或转入下行趋势。生猪再度重挫,生猪存栏高位, 出栏均重高企,供应增大,气温升高后,肉类需求转弱,且替代增多, 施压猪价下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油:持续下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约持续下跌,受到美豆油暴跌的 带动: 1.由于市场对美国可再生燃料义务(RVO)大幅低于此前预期的 担忧骤升,美豆油生物燃料需求可能不及预期,空头情绪升温,导致 美豆油暴跌,带动棕榈油期价持续下挫。且马棕榈油进入增产季,马 来西亚棕榈油总署(MPOB)的月度报告显示马来西亚 4月棕榈油产 量及库存激增,市场预计后期棕榈油产量将逐月上升,利空因素压制 棕櫚油期价下挫。 2.国内棕榈油进口买船量增加且已超过刚需,预期库存从低位回 升,压制棕榈油期价。大连 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. The oil and fat sectors are experiencing a significant decline, the live pig market has tumbled, and the egg market is also under pressure due to high inventories. On the other hand, the cotton market is fluctuating at a high level, and the sugar market is experiencing a decline and consolidation. The soybean meal market is rising in a volatile manner, and the soybean market is continuing to move sideways after a pullback. The corn market is falling in a volatile manner, the apple market is oscillating at a low level, and the trend remains downward [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The entire oil and fat sector has dropped significantly. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the market lacks confidence in the demand for US soybean oil in biofuels. The production and inventory of palm oil in producing areas have surged, bringing seasonal supply pressure. Domestic soybean oil is also under pressure from the expected increase in supply due to the rising operating rate of oil mills. The live pig market has tumbled due to high inventories at the breeding end, sufficient supply of standard and fat pigs, and weak downstream demand. The egg market has also declined under the pressure of high inventories [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main palm oil contract 2509 has dropped significantly, giving back most of the previous day's gains. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the market is worried that the demand for US soybean oil in biofuels will fall short of expectations, and bullish sentiment has cooled rapidly. The monthly report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that the production and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia increased sharply in April, suppressing the upward space of Malaysian palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil main contract 2509 closed with a long negative line, falling below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 8018 and resistance at 8200 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main soybean oil contract 2509 has dropped significantly, giving back all of the previous day's gains. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, market sentiment has reversed, causing the price to fall. The high - level decline of crude oil futures prices has led to concerns that the demand for US soybean oil in biofuels will fall short of expectations. In the domestic market, imported soybeans have arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the operating rate of oil mills has increased, leading to an expected increase in soybean oil supply. The main soybean oil contract 2509 has reversed and tumbled, breaking below most moving averages, indicating a weakening technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7744 and resistance at 7808 [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pig - The live pig contract 2509 has tumbled, giving back all of the previous day's gains and hitting a new low, opening up downward space. At the breeding end, the inventory of live pigs is at a high level, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased in May, and the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises has increased month - on - month. In addition, the price difference between standard and fat pigs has narrowed or even inverted, and farms are actively selling large - weight pigs, increasing the supply pressure. On the demand side, after the May Day holiday, the purchase and sale of pork has declined, catering and tourism consumption has cooled down, and residents mainly focus on household consumption. With sufficient substitutes, mainstream slaughterhouses lack an increase in orders, and demand support is insufficient. The Dalian live pig main contract 2509 has reversed and tumbled, with sharp daily fluctuations. The price has broken through the moving average system and the previous fluctuation range, hitting a new low, and the downward space may be opened, indicating a weakening technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 13650 and resistance at 13890 [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The main cotton contract 2509 has fluctuated narrowly at a high level after a strong upward movement, undergoing technical correction, and the upward trend remains unchanged. After the high - level talks between China and the US on economy and trade, bilateral tariffs have been significantly reduced, exceeding market expectations. Some orders may be restarted during the buffer period, boosting market sentiment. Terminal enterprises in Zhengzhou have successively shipped orders that were suspended from processing or shipping before the release of equal tariffs, alleviating inventory pressure. Coupled with domestic macro - level positives, cotton prices are supported. The main cotton futures contract 2509 has fluctuated narrowly at a high level after a strong upward movement, undergoing technical correction. The price is still fluctuating above the medium - term moving average, and the MACD red column is expanding, indicating a strong technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 13275 and resistance at 13500 [7][9]. 3.2.5 Sugar - The main sugar contract 2509 has declined and oscillated, closing with a small negative line with a lower shadow, and the trend is not yet clear. Overseas raw sugar futures prices have fallen from high levels as the market focuses on the future production growth in Brazil. The domestic window for importing sugar outside the quota has opened, increasing the pressure of future sugar arrivals at ports. However, it will take time for the imported sugar to arrive. Currently, the domestic market still relies on domestic sugar supply. The sugar sales rate in April was relatively fast, and with the approaching of the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has a demand for stocking up, supporting sugar prices. The main sugar contract 2509 has declined and oscillated, with limited decline. The strategy can be short - term trading for now, with support at 5873 and resistance at 5904 [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - The main soybean meal contract 2509 has oscillated and closed with a positive line, driven by the strength of US soybeans. The domestic spot price of soybean meal has varied. The low operating rate in some areas has supported a small rebound in the soybean meal price. However, imported soybeans have arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the overall operating rate of national oil mills has rebounded, with a strong expectation of sufficient soybean meal supply. Currently, the soybean meal price is close to the cost price of oil mills, and the oil mills' prices are relatively firm. The main soybean meal contract 2509 has closed with two consecutive positive lines, and the price has stood above the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, indicating a warming technical pattern. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2906 and resistance at 2950 [12]. 3.2.7 Soybean - The main soybean contract 2507 has risen and then fallen, closing with a small negative line with an upper shadow, showing an oscillating and continuously sideways movement. There is little remaining soybeans at the grass - roots level, and the supply of soybeans in domestic producing areas is limited. Farmers are busy with spring plowing, and overall trading is light. The purchase and sales pattern in the sales areas is also stable, with little price change. Imported soybeans have arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the supply is gradually increasing. Oil mills' demand for domestic soybeans has decreased. The downstream soybean product industry has entered the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. The main soybean contract 2507 has risen and then fallen, encountering resistance in the upward movement, and the price has returned to the short - term sideways range. The strategy is to close short positions and wait for opportunities, with support at 4132 and resistance at 4196 [15]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main corn contract 2507 has oscillated and closed with a negative line, giving back the previous day's rebound, showing a weakening technical pattern and facing further adjustment pressure. The grass - roots grain sales progress is approaching the end, and last week's sales progress remained stable. Corn starch processing enterprises are making losses, and the operating rate has declined. The prices of wheat and corn are close, and during the upcoming concentrated listing period of wheat, the substitution pressure may increase. After the corn price reached a high level, downstream feed enterprises have low acceptance and limited purchases. The Dalian main corn contract 2507 has declined, testing the support of the 20 - day moving average again, and the technical pattern shows weakening pressure. The strategy can be short - term trading for now, with support at 2326 and resistance at 2356 [16][18]. 3.2.9 Egg - The main egg contract 2506 has dropped significantly, approaching the previous low, and the downward space may be opened. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, with 1.329 billion in April, a month - on - month increase of 11 million. The number of newly - laid hens has increased, and there is an expectation of a continued increase in inventory. The supply of eggs is sufficient. The terminal market has limited acceptance of high - priced eggs, the sales pace has slowed down, and inventory digestion is slow. Egg prices are weakening steadily. With the rising temperature, eggs are not easy to store, and the trading link may accelerate the shipment. The demand side is seasonally weakening, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The main egg contract 2506 has dropped significantly, falling far from the moving average, and may open the downward space, showing a weak technical pattern. The strategy is to continue to short, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [19]. 3.2.10 Apple - The main apple contract 2510 has oscillated narrowly at a low level, closing with a small positive line with an upper shadow, and the downward trend remains unchanged. In the apple - producing areas, farmers are busy with farm work, the cold - storage packaging and shipping have decreased, the sales pace is average, and the market in the producing areas is stable. Currently, competing melons and fruits are gradually coming to the market, increasing alternative consumption and impacting the demand for apples, suppressing the apple price. The main apple contract 2510 has oscillated at a low level, and the price is fluctuating near the previous low. The MACD green column continues to expand, showing a weak technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7688 and resistance at 7770 [21].