Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The CIT ruling on tariffs was just a short - term emotional disturbance. After the CAFC's decision, most commodities erased the previous day's rebound. Tariffs will likely continue as long as Trump is in power. The trading strategy should focus on the fundamental logic to find the strength and weakness of varieties. For the energy - chemical sector, crude oil, three types of rubber, and polyolefins have clear downward fundamental logic [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Market Situation - The CIT ruling on tariffs was a short - term emotional boost, but the CAFC's decision restored the tariffs, and most commodities erased the previous day's rebound. The trading should focus on the fundamentals [3][4]. Commodity Analysis Crude Oil - **Logic**: OPEC+ finalized the 2027 production benchmark, and the production increase plan will be discussed on Saturday. Kazakhstan can't reduce oil production. There's a high possibility of a new Iran nuclear deal [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌结构 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 468. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 468 [5]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but the supply is expected to increase due to the early resumption of maintenance devices. The cost support is weak, and the demand is hard to improve [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price followed the decline of crude oil. The short - term pressure is at 7343. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 7343 [8]. PX - **Logic**: The PX devices are in maintenance, and the downstream PTA's operation rate has increased. However, the cost logic may dominate the market after the decline of crude oil [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期震荡 structure. The price fell after reducing positions, and the previous upward breakthrough was false. The strategy is to wait and see [12]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply may increase, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. The demand is relatively strong, but the cost logic may dominate after the decline of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期震荡 structure. The price fell after reducing positions, and the previous upward breakthrough was false. The strategy is to wait and see [16]. PP - **Logic**: The supply is stable, but there are new production capacity expectations in June. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is hard to increase [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile and ended lower. The short - term pressure is at 6980. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 6980 [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic operation rate decreased slightly, but the overseas operation rate increased. There are high import expectations in June, and the demand is flat [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level下跌结构. The price was volatile and continued to decline. The short - term pressure is at 2255. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 2255 [25]. Rubber - **Logic**: The demand is weak with high inventory of automobiles and tires. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the supply will increase in June [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 14000. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails [26]. PVC - **Logic**: The real - estate data in April was poor, and the terminal demand is hard to improve. The supply will increase after the resumption of device maintenance [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile and continued to decline. The short - term pressure is at 4980. Look for short - selling opportunities after the reversal pattern [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The overall supply operation rate decreased slightly, and the arrival of goods increased. The polyester load remains high [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile, and the short - term pressure is at 4405. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 4405 [33]. Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 7120. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 7120 [37]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The supply of butadiene will increase in June, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. The demand is weak [41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 11580. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 11580 [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with most oil - related products falling, sugar being weak, while corn is stabilizing and rising. The prices of various products are affected by factors such as international market trends, domestic supply and demand, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 fell sharply, dragged down by the decline of soybean oil. The Malaysian production area is in the production - increasing season, and the domestic spot trading is cold. The strategy is to close long positions and wait for an opportunity to short - sell, with support at 8000 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 continued to decline and expanded its decline, driven by the continuous fall of US soybean oil futures. Domestic supply pressure increased due to large - scale imports of soybeans and high - level oil - mill压榨. The strategy is to maintain a light short position, with support at 7600 and resistance at 7700 [3]. (3) Sugar - The sugar main contract 2509 continued to fall and was weakly running. Domestic production increased and there were concerns about increased imports. The strategy is to maintain a light short position, with support at 5750 and resistance at 5800 [5]. (4) Peanut - The peanut main contract 2510 reversed and fell sharply after a sharp rise, dragged down by the overall decline of the oil sector. Although there are some factors supporting the price, the demand is limited. The strategy is to reduce long positions, with support at 8368 and resistance at 8528 [8]. (5) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 oscillated at a high level. The supply increased due to the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in oil - mill operation rate. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 2940 and resistance at 2984 [10]. (6) Corn - The corn main contract 2507 stabilized and rose. The reduction of remaining grain in the production area and the decline of port inventory supported the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2330 and resistance at 2342 [11][13]. (7) Live Pig - The live pig main contract 2509 rebounded first and then declined, with limited rebound. The market is back to the influence of fundamental supply - demand. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 13380 and resistance at 13750 [14][16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 oscillated downward. The textile industry is in a seasonal demand trough, and the demand for cotton is weak. The strategy is to wait patiently for a breakthrough and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13235 and resistance at 13370 [17]. (9) Egg - The egg main contract 2507 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend has not reversed. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The strategy is for short - sellers to take profits, with support at 2869 and resistance at 2980 [19]. (10) Apple - The apple main contract 2510 continued to rebound. The low inventory and the expected reduction in the new season supported the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 7645 and resistance at 7710 [21].

关税扰动市场反弹,但偏弱结构未改 行情日评: 今日市场受短期关税消息扰动在连续下跌后出现情绪修复,多数 品种出现反弹。关税是否真的就此取消?如何理解昨晚"美国国际贸 易法院(CIT)裁定特朗普 4 月 2 日对等关税政策越权且违法"这一 事件。 短期结构 品种 中期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 震荡 空单持有 偏空 空单持有 偏空 EB 偏空 空单止损 農汤 PX 空单止损 偏空 震荡 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PP 偏空 偏空 空单持有 塑料 甲醇 偏空 偏空 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EG 寻反抽结束做空机会 橡胶 偏空 偏空 寻反抽结束做空机会 PVC 偏空 偏空 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 板块观点汇总 我们认为短期有情绪利好扰动(昨晚到今天的反弹,盘面已反应), 但实际判决未必能执行,关税仍难被取消。主要原因是 CIT 裁定后虽 然理论上海关需要在 1-3 天内停止征税,但 CIT 作为联邦法院的裁决 并非终局,特朗普政府有权向上诉至联邦巡回上诉法院(CAFC)法院 提出异议,并申请暂缓执行(目前已上诉),如果 CAFC 维持 CIT 判 决,特朗普政府可向最高法院申请调卷令,目前 ...

棕油上涨、花生大涨 一、农产品板块综述 油脂强势走高,棕油领涨,因马棕油产量增幅放缓,而出口增幅 扩大,支撑棕油期价走高,继续关注后续产地产量变化。豆油先跌后 涨,受到棕榈油强势带动而缩减跌幅,但进口大豆到港集中,油厂开 机率上市,豆油供应增加,豆油期价承压,后续仍有走跌压力。花生 暴涨,受到油脂板块强势的带动,加之花生贸易商惜售以及进口花生 米偏低等因素支撑花生期价大幅上涨,创近半年新高,后续料将偏强 运行。玉米走势企稳,产区余粮见底以及港口库存下降支撑玉米期价 逐渐回稳有升。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅上扬 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约继续大涨,受到马棕榈油增产 放缓以及出口强劲的提振: 1.高频数据显示,马来西亚 5 月 1-25 日标搁油出口环比增幅在 7%-11%之间,而同期产量环比增幅在 0.73%,产量增幅不及出口增 幅,给市场注入偏多影响,因印度当前棕榈油库存偏低,有阶段性补 库需求,提振马棕榈油出口。 2.国内豆棕现货价差倒挂加深,棕榈油现货交投冷清,棕榈油消 费偏弱。大连棕榈油主力 2509 合约强劲上扬,站上 40 日均线,MACD 红柱放大,技术强势。策略上轻仓多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Crude oil is waiting for the OPEC meeting to drive the market, while aromatics have confirmed a breakdown, and polyolefins continue to be weak. Most varieties in the sector are rated as bearish in both the medium and short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Overseas macro - path is unclear, with potential macro - risks this week due to issues like US and Japanese bond auctions and a rising VIX index. OPEC+ is expected to accelerate production increase in the medium - term, and short - term US refined oil inventories are rising. There is a possibility of new Iran nuclear deal [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Closed down more than 1% today, with short - term pressure at 461 [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but high - profit led to early resumption of previously shut - down plants, increasing supply. Pure benzene faces arrival pressure, and downstream demand is hard to improve [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, new low with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7195 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7195 [5]. (3) PX - **Logic**: PX plants are in maintenance, with low operating rates. Downstream PTA's operating rate is rising, and PX is in a de - stocking phase. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 6775 [9]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 6720 [9]. (4) PTA - **Logic**: PTA plant operating rates are rising, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. Downstream polyester operating rates are firm. However, the cost factor may dominate after crude oil decline [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 4800 [13]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 4750 [13]. (5) PP - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates are stable, but new production capacity is expected in June. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. Export profits are rising, but short - term exports are hard to increase [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, oscillated today. Short - term pressure at the high point on May 26 [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 6980 [16]. (6) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, but overseas operating rates increased, with high import expectations in June. Demand is basically flat year - on - year, and it is under pressure [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level downward structure, continued to decline today. Short - term pressure at 2255 [17]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at the high point on May 22 [17]. (7) Rubber - **Logic**: Terminal automobile and tire inventories are at high levels, and there is no sign of improvement in demand. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, and domestic inventories are accumulating against the season [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the oscillation range with new low and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 14550 [19]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound fails to break through the pressure in the hourly cycle [19]. (8) PVC - **Logic**: April real - estate data is still poor, and downstream demand is hard to improve. Plant maintenance is gradually ending, and supply is expected to increase [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4980 [22]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities with reversal patterns in the hourly cycle [22]. (9) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates decreased slightly, but arrivals increased. Downstream polyester load remains high [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the short - term support at 4315 with a long - negative line and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4405 [23]. - **Strategy**: Transfer 15 - minute short positions to the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 4405 [23]. (10) Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7120 [25]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7120 [25]. (11) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In June, plants are expected to resume production after maintenance, increasing butadiene supply. Butadiene storage capacity is low, and price may fall after inventory accumulation. Terminal demand is weak [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Long - negative line with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 11580 [27]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 11580 [27].

一、农产品板块综述 油脂走势分化,棕油偏强运行,因产地增产放缓而出口增幅较大 支撑马棕榈油反弹,但受制于后续产量将持续扩增,棕榈油回升空间 或受限,连棕油9月合约在近期波动区间上沿位置有阻力。而豆油走 势偏弱,国内进口大豆集中到港,油厂压榨量显著回升,供应增加令 豆油承压下跌。白糖大幅下跌,受外盘原糖跌势拖累,国内市场对后 期进口糖到港增加预期亦令自糖承压。农副产品生猪和鸡蛋延续下跌 趋势,供应充裕和需求偏弱持续压制行情走低。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油: 震荡上扬 油脂震荡、白糖大跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约继续反弹走高,因马棕产地棕 榴油增产放缓以及出口增加提振: 1.高频数据显示,马来西亚 5 月 1—25 日棕榈油出口环比增幅在 7.3%―35%之间，而同期产量环比增幅在 0.73%，产量增幅不及出口 增幅,给市场注入偏多影响,因印度当前棕榈油库存偏低,有阶段性 补库需求,提振马棕榈油出口。但马棕油处于季节性增产,后续产量 会逐渐增加,而出口或是阶段性增长,持续性仍有待观察,马棕油库 存仍有增长预期,料限制后续棕榈油反弹空间。 2.国内棕榈油现货需求疲软,库存仍相对偏低,供需矛盾不突 ...

一、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆粕和菜粕: 震荡上涨 焦点关注:豆粕 2509 合约和菜粕 2509 合约震荡上扬,豆粕需 求增加支持豆粕走高，而菜粕涨幅较大，受到库存大幅去库的提振; 1. 下游饲料企业增加豆粕添比,豆粕需求增加,同时临近端午 假期,低库存企业积极提货补库,油厂库存仍处于历史同期低位,库 存压力不大。粮油商务网数据显示,截至第 21 周国内豆粕库存 20.8 万吨，环比增加 59.75%。而菜粕工厂成交率和提货量皆大幅增加, 且油菜籽工厂开机率处于非常低水平,菜粕库存大幅下降,粮油商务 网数据显示，截至第 21 周末，菜粕库存 2.3 万吨，环比下降 34.86%， 低库存支持菜粕走高。 两粕上涨、鸡蛋大跌 一、农产品板块综述 两粕震荡上涨,临近端午,下游企业积极提货补库,支撑豆粕价 格,菜粕价格受到库存去化的提振,两粕联袂上涨,但是由于进口大 豆集中到港,油厂开机率提升,豆粕供应增加,或限制豆粕的反弹空 间。鸡蛋持续大跌刷新低点,因养殖端蛋鸡存栏高位,供应充足,加 之天气转热,鸡蛋存储环境变差，中间商和养殖端加大抛售，鸡蛋承 压大跌,后市仍有下行空间。 2、豆粕主力 2509 合约和菜粕 25 ...

原油等待 OPEC 会议驱动:聚烯烃偏弱,芳 烃偏强格局延续 (一) 原油: 逻辑:海外宏观路径依旧不清晰,但近期美债日债拍卖出现滞销, 关注本周三次美债拍卖情况,VIX 指数有所抬头，关注周内警惕宏观 风险可能;供需方面中期 OPEC+继续加速增产,6月1日的部长级会 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 品种 偏空 空単持有 原油 震荡 偏空. 偏空. 空単特有 EB 寻反抽结束做空机会 偏空. 偏空. PX 偏空 偏空 寻反抽结束做空机会 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PP 塑料 偏空 偏空 空单持有 偏空 空単持有 甲醇 偏空 小时观望,15分钟空单持有 偏空 偏多 EG 偏空 偏空 震荡区间上沿逢高空 橡胶 偏空. 偏空. 寻反抽结束做空机会 PVC 偏空 BR 橡胶 偏空 空単持有 板块观点汇总 议市交易的时间下一次节点,短期美国成品油出现累库,留意美国需 求不及预期可能;地缘方面美伊第五轮谈判后特朗普表示会谈"非常 好"，主观仍推断新伊核协议达成可能较大。 图 1. 1: 原油 2507 日线图 数据来源:天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1. 2: 原油 2507 小时图 (二) 苯乙烯: 逻辑:库存 ...

(一) 棕榈油: 震荡下行 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约震荡下行，持续弱势; 油脂下挫、生猪反弹 一、农产品板块综述 油脂全线下跌，豆油破位下行，跌破本月横盘区间，因进口大豆 集中到港,油厂开机率显著上升,豆油供应增加,施压期价走低。棕 榈油亦进入跌势,棕榈油进口买船增加,库存逐渐回升,当日现货价 格大幅下跌,压制棕榈油期价走低。生猪低位反弹,技术修正,月底 部分猪企有缩量拉涨心态,但是中大猪产能释放,需求淡季,生猪反 弹空间有限,主趋势仍将下行。鸡蛋再度大跌,回吐上周反弹幅度, 因蛋鸡存栏高位,鸡蛋供应充足,下游需求偏弱,鸡蛋跌势料持续。 二、品种策略跟踪 2.国内棕榈油进口成本下行,买船量增加且已超过刚需,棕榈油 库存开始累库,粮油商务网数据显示,截至第20周末,国内棕榈油 库存 30.66 万吨，周环比增加 3.79%。5 月 26 日国内棕榈油现货价格 集体下跌，天津地区跌幅较大，当日下跌 350 元/吨至 8670 元/吨。 广州和江苏棕榈油价格皆跌破 8500 至 8420 和 8470 元/吨。 1.马来西亚棕榈油产量和出口数据皆环比增长,南部半岛棕榈油 压榨商协会（SPPOMA）发布的 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes multiple petrochemical products, suggesting that the polyolefin category is weak while the aromatic hydrocarbon category is strong. Overall, most products have a bearish medium - term outlook, with varying short - term trends. The report provides logical analyses and technical tracking for each product, along with corresponding trading strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Overseas macro - path is unclear, with potential macro - risks. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase in the medium - term, and there is a risk of US demand falling short of expectations in the short - term. There is a high possibility of a new Iran nuclear deal. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Consider today's price increase as a rebound on reduced positions, with short - term pressure at 475. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but supply is expected to increase due to early resumption of previously shut - down plants. Cost support is weak, and downstream demand has limited growth. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today's price decline on increased positions. Short - term pressure at 7345. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit reference moved down to 7345 [5]. (3) PX - **Logic**: PX plants are in maintenance, with low operating rates and good short - term fundamentals. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil prices. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support refers to the low on May 13. - **Strategy**: Wait for a short - selling opportunity after the support is broken [9]. (4) PTA - **Logic**: Supply - side plant operating rates are increasing, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. Demand - side polyester operating rates are strong. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil prices. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support refers to the low on May 13. - **Strategy**: Wait for a short - selling opportunity after the support is broken [13]. (5) PP - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates are stable, but new production capacity is expected to come on stream in June. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and downstream demand support is insufficient. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation with significant position increases, indicating strong downward momentum. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure and stop - profit referring to the high on May 21 [17]. (6) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates have decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, but overseas operating rates are increasing, and imports are expected to rise in June. Demand is basically flat year - on - year, and the market is under pressure. - **Technical Tracking**: Downward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation, with price increases on reduced positions and decreases on increased positions. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit reference at the high on May 22 [18]. (7) Rubber - **Logic**: Demand is weak, with high inventories of terminal automobiles and tires. There is no expectation of export demand recovery, and the EU has launched an anti - dumping investigation. Domestic inventories are accumulating against the season. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level and short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly level. Today's price decline on increased positions. The upper pressure of the oscillation range refers to the high on April 8. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the upper edge of the oscillation range on the hourly cycle [21]. (8) PVC - **Logic**: Real - estate data in April is still poor, and downstream demand is difficult to improve. Plant maintenance is ending, and supply is expected to increase. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term pressure at 4980. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a reversal pattern on the hourly cycle [24]. (9) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates have decreased slightly, and arrivals are increasing. Demand - side polyester operating rates remain high. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level and short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support at 4315. - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss at 4455 [25]. (10) Plastic - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term pressure at 7120. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit moved down to 7120 [27]. (11) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In June, plants are expected to resume production after maintenance, leading to a potential increase in butadiene supply. Demand is weak due to high inventories of terminal automobiles and tires. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's long - negative candlestick. The upper pressure refers to 12120. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29].