1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil have risen significantly, but their upside may be limited due to increased supply. Cotton has strengthened due to the significant reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs, and the sugar has also risen strongly. Meanwhile, some products like apples are in a continuous decline [1][2][3][6][9][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Palm oil and soybean oil have risen sharply, driven by the surge in CBOT soybean oil. However, the supply of domestic palm oil and soybean oil is increasing, which may limit their upside. Cotton has risen strongly, supported by the reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs, and the orders of textile enterprises may increase in the future [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 has risen significantly, driven by the sharp increase in soybean oil. The proposed extension of the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has boosted CBOT soybean oil. But the sharp increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory in April may limit its upside. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8100 and resistance at 8210 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 has risen strongly, driven by the sharp increase in external soybean oil. The proposed extension of the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has boosted CBOT soybean oil. Although the tight supply pattern of domestic soybean oil will gradually ease, the follow - up increase may be limited. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7812 and resistance at 8000 [3]. 3.2.3 Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 has risen strongly, basically recovering the previous day's decline. The significant reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs has boosted the market sentiment. Although the textile industry is in the off - season, the short - term strategy is to hold a small number of long positions, with support at 13260 and resistance at 13600 [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The sugar main contract 2509 has risen strongly, driven by the sharp increase in external raw sugar futures prices. The decline in Brazilian sugar production and the strong domestic sugar sales and production data have provided upward momentum. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to hold a small number of short - term long positions, with support at 5885 and resistance at 5940 [9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 has oscillated and closed up, driven by the strength of US soybeans. However, the large - scale arrival of imported soybeans in China in May and the increase in supply may limit its upside. The strategy is to observe the resistance of the 10 - day moving average. If it is broken, close short positions; otherwise, continue to hold them, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2923 [10][12]. 3.2.6 Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 main contract 2507 has oscillated and closed up, showing a sideways pattern. The limited supply of domestic soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the weak downstream demand have affected the price. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 4127 and resistance at 4199 [13]. 3.2.7 Corn - The corn main contract 2507 has rebounded and closed up after two days of adjustment. The Sino - US tariff reduction has a limited impact on corn, and the insufficient supply of corn still supports the price. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 2338 and resistance at 2363 [15]. 3.2.8 Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2509 has risen significantly, affected by the slowdown in the slaughter rhythm of the supply side. However, the high inventory of large pigs and the weak demand limit the upside. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14095 [18]. 3.2.9 Eggs - The egg main contract 2506 has first declined and then risen, with narrow - range oscillations. The slowdown in terminal replenishment and the high egg - laying hen inventory limit the upside. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 2900 and resistance at 2924 [19][21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The apple main contract 2510 has continued to decline. The high price in the producing area, the slowdown in sales, and the increase in substitute consumption have suppressed the price. The strategy is to hold a small number of short positions, with support at 7650 and resistance at 7770 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the China-US negotiation joint statement, short - term bullish factors have landed, and the market is still in an emotional state. Although 50% of the tariffs on China are still high, it has restarted a new trade situation. Most risk assets have basically returned to the level before April 2, 2025. Recently, there have been supply - side disturbances in many varieties, and bulls are likely to push up prices. After the emotional release, the fundamental logic should be re - examined [1]. - In the medium term, the rebound of crude oil is much weaker than other risk assets, mainly due to the increasing expectation of supply surplus under the continuous acceleration of OPEC+ production increase. Short - term non - supply - demand logics are regarded as phased rises rather than reversals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities near the previous high (WTI main contract at $64). For oil - chemical varieties, wait for the right - side short - selling opportunities after short - term breakouts [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It is testing the medium - term pressure level corresponding to $63 of WTI today. If it fails to break through the medium - term pressure, it will retest the support at 468 [2]. - **Strategy**: In the hourly cycle, after the previous short - position index, look for a new position - increasing and reverse - wrapping pattern, or wait for the price to break below the low on May 13 and then look for a right - side rebound short - selling opportunity. If the short - position is stopped out, wait for a new position - increasing and reverse - wrapping signal [2][3]. Styrene (EB) - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with a reduction in positions today, and the short - term trading volume is insufficient, so the upside space is limited. The short - term support is the low on May 13 [9]. - **Strategy**: Still on the sidelines [3][9]. PX - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. Some funds left the market with a reduction in positions at the end of the session today. The short - term support refers to the low on May 13 [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [3][10]. PTA - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with an increase in positions today. The short - term support refers to the low on May 13 [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. Currently on the sidelines [3][16]. PP - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with a reduction in positions today. The new short - term support is at 7130 [18]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines, wait for short - term breakouts [3][18]. Urea - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It oscillated within the day today, retested the short - term support at the low on May 8, but there was no trading volume to match the pattern [19][22]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3][22]. Methanol - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. After rising with an increase in positions today, it showed a short - term trend reversal, and the short - term slope is too large. The support is temporarily at 2330 [23]. - **Strategy**: On the sidelines in the hourly cycle [3][23]. Rubber - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term oscillating structure. It rose with an increase in positions today and reached the upper edge of the oscillation range again. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8. It is currently in a narrow - range oscillation for oversold repair [26]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3][26]. Caustic Soda - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. After oscillating within the day today, there was a large - scale reduction in positions and an upward movement at the end of the session, indicating that some short - sellers left the market [27]. - **Strategy**: Mainly on the sidelines [3][27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It rose with an increase in positions today. The short - term support is at 43150 [29]. - **Strategy**: On the sidelines due to the divergence between medium - and short - term trends [3][29]. Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It is regarded as a continued rebound today. The short - term support is at 7100 [30]. - **Strategy**: In the hourly cycle, on the sidelines [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After the release of the China - US negotiation joint statement, short - term bullish factors have materialized, and the market is still in an emotional state. The new US tariffs on China have been reduced from 165% to 50%, which, although still high, restarts trade and leaves room for future negotiations. After the short - term bullish factors are exhausted, the market will return to fundamental logic after the emotional release [1]. - In the medium term, the rebound of crude oil is much weaker than other risk assets due to the increasing supply surplus expectation under OPEC+ continuous accelerated production. Unless there is an Iranian geopolitical risk, the current stage of crude oil rally is expected to end. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It opened high and closed low today, testing the medium - term pressure level of WTI $63. If it fails to break through, it will test the support at 460. - Strategy: Hold short positions (non - right - hand side). Wait for the anti - package pattern as a signal to short again, with the stop - loss referring to the hourly high at 22:00 last night [4][5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had a limit - up with increased positions today, and the short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe [9]. (3) PX - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [10]. (4) PTA - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. (5) PP - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded with reduced positions today, broke through the pressure/stop - profit level, and is considered to have a short - term trend reversal. The new short - term support refers to today's low. - Strategy: Take profit on the remaining short positions and then observe [17]. (6) Urea - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term support refers to the low on May 8th. - Strategy: Look for low - buying opportunities based on the reversal pattern above the short - term support [18][21]. (7) Methanol - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today and remained below the upper limit of the previous range. - Strategy: Observe mainly on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Rubber - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It opened high and closed low today, falling back after reaching the upper limit of the oscillating range. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8th. - Strategy: The general idea is to short at high levels, but observe mainly on the hourly cycle under the current oscillating structure [26]. (9) Caustic Soda - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased positions and rose today, with opportunities for long positions based on the reversal pattern, but the strategy has not prompted recently. - Strategy: Observe mainly [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had an oscillating market today, and the short - term support temporarily refers to the 4200 level. - Strategy: Observe due to the divergence between medium - term and short - term trends [31]. (11) Plastic - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and rose in the late session with reduced positions, and the sustainability is questionable. The short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly cycle [32][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The USDA May supply - demand report had mixed impacts on agricultural products. The prices of some products like cotton rose, while others such as palm oil, sugar, and bean粕 declined. The overall agricultural product market showed a diversified trend with different influencing factors for each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract continued to rise despite a pull - back. The Sino - US high - level economic and trade talks' positive outcome, domestic macro - benefits, and reduced commercial inventory supported the price increase. However, the textile industry is in a off - season [2]. - Technically, it showed strength. The strategy is to go long on dips with a support level of 13270 and a resistance level of 13475 [3]. Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract reversed and fell. The MPOB April report showed a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory, while exports met expectations. The large increase in production and inventory pressured the price [4]. - The contract entered a downward trend. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 7812 and a resistance level of 8000 [4]. Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract rebounded but then fell sharply. Overseas raw sugar price drops and the opening of the domestic sugar out - of - quota import profit window limited its rebound [6]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 5827 and a resistance level of 5892 [6]. Bean粕 - The bean粕 main 2509 contract continued to decline. Although the USDA report was bullish for US soybeans, fast sowing in the US and large domestic soybean imports increased supply, weakening downstream demand [9]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 2865 and a resistance level of 2900 [9]. Bean一 - The bean一 main 2507 contract oscillated and fell. Stable domestic soybean prices due to less remaining beans at the grass - roots level were offset by weak downstream demand and increased imported soybean supply [10]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold short positions with a support level of 4130 and a resistance level of 4175 [12]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract rose first and then fell. The USDA report increased US soybean oil demand in biofuels, but large domestic soybean imports and increased supply pressured the price [13]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term shorting with a support level of 7770 and a resistance level of 7866 [13]. Corn - The corn main 2507 contract continued to fall. The Sino - US tariff reduction may increase imports, and rumors of state corn reserve auctions added bearish sentiment. Substitute pressure and weak downstream demand also contributed to the decline [15]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 2335 and a resistance level of 2361 [15]. Pig - The pig 2509 contract oscillated at a low level. High inventory on the breeding side and weak demand after the May Day holiday led to an oversupply situation [17]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 13800 and a resistance level of 13915 [17]. Egg - The egg main 2506 contract oscillated and fell. High egg - laying hen inventory and sufficient egg supply limited the price rebound [19]. - Technically, it faced downward pressure. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 2900 and a resistance level of 2933 [19]. Apple - The apple main 2510 contract gapped down. High apple prices in production areas and increased substitute consumption from competing fruits pressured the price [22]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 7690 and a resistance level of 7800 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Cotton and sugar prices are rising, while hog prices are falling. Other products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc., also have their own specific market conditions and price trends [1]. Summary by Variety Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract soared. Positive factors include the substantial progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, domestic macro - benefits, and a decline in port inventory. However, the textile industry is in the off - season, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13100 and resistance at 13300 [2][3]. Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract rose strongly. Overseas market price increases and strong domestic demand (April sales rate reached a 25 - year high) boosted the price. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 5859 and resistance at 5900 [4][8]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2509 contract fluctuated, first falling and then rising, but the downward trend remained. The increase in domestic soybean imports and inventory put pressure on prices. The strategy is to hold light short positions on rallies, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2912 [7]. Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract rebounded, driven by the strengthening of crude oil. However, the increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the expected increase in domestic supply limit the rebound space. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 7940 and resistance at 8076 [9]. Soybean No.1 - The soybean No.1 main 2507 contract rebounded and fluctuated. Although there is support from less remaining beans in the Northeast, weak demand and the expected increase in imported soybeans limit the rebound space. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 4127 and resistance at 4185 [11]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract fluctuated upward, driven by the strengthening of crude oil. However, the increase in imported soybeans and inventory may limit the upward space. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 7762 and resistance at 7852 [14]. Corn - The corn main 2507 contract adjusted at a high level. Profit - taking and the expected increase in US corn imports put pressure on the price, but factors such as less remaining grain in the producing area and strong demand limit the adjustment space. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 2360 and resistance at 2389 [15][17]. Hog - The hog 2509 contract continued to decline weakly. High inventory and weak demand led to the downward trend. The strategy is to short on rallies, with support at 13800 and resistance at 13930 [18]. Egg - The egg main 2506 contract rebounded. Spot price increases due to补货 demand and approaching festivals supported the rebound, but high egg - laying hen inventory limits the rebound space. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 2898 and resistance at 2940 [20]. Apple - The apple main 2510 contract rebounded slightly. Although the inventory is at a five - year low, the slowdown in sales and uncertain fruit - setting conditions due to abnormal weather make the market trend uncertain. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 7800 and resistance at 7903 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the Sino-US economic and trade negotiation, the short - term upward drive in sentiment may come to an end. The current 50% tariff on China is still relatively high, and the bullish trading has been quite sufficient. The short - term bullish factors for crude oil are exhausted, and without the Iranian geopolitical risk, the stage - rise of crude oil is expected to end. For oil - chemical products, maintain a medium - term bearish view and wait for short - selling opportunities after short - term breakouts [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose with a reduction in positions, and the volume did not match, so it is not considered a reversal. Look for reversal patterns that do not exceed the medium - term pressure level of 500 to try secondary entry of medium - term short positions [4][5] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long - Yang line, breaking through the short - term pressure on April 29. The pre - holiday short positions should be stopped for profit and then wait and see [5][6] PX - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose. Pay attention to the low point on the night of May 9 as the short - term support. Wait for the breakdown of the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [5][10] PTA - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose. Pay attention to the low point on the night of May 9 as the short - term support. Wait for the breakdown of the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [5][13] PP - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bearish. The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Today's decline in positions and rebound is not considered a trend reversal. It is relatively weaker than PX and PTA. The remaining pre - holiday short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit is still referenced at the 7060 level [5][17] Urea - Medium - term structure is oscillating, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Technically, it oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support below is referenced at the low point on May 8. Look for opportunities to go long on dips without breaking the support [5][18] Methanol - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is oscillating. The hourly - level has a downward structure. Today, it declined in positions and rose above the short - term pressure level of 2250, and the short - term trend is considered reversed. Stop the loss of short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][21] Rubber - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is oscillating. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term oscillating structure. Today, it increased positions and rose but did not break through the upper edge of the oscillating range. The upper pressure is still referenced at the high point on April 8. In the near term, it is doing an oversold repair through narrow - range oscillation by trading time for space. The general strategy is to short on rallies, but there is no short - term opportunity [5][22][25] Caustic Soda - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose, and there was an opportunity to enter long positions in the form of a reversal pattern within the day, but the strategy has not prompted recently, so still mainly wait and see [5][27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose above the short - term pressure level of 4250, and the short - term trend is considered reversed. Stop the profit and loss of previous short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][31] Plastic - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level's short - term downward structure has ended. Today, it declined in positions and rose above the high - point pressure level on April 30, and the short - term decline may end. Stop the profit of short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][32]

Overall Summary of the Agricultural Products Sector - Cotton breaks through and rises, but weak downstream demand may limit the rebound space. Soybean meal drops significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. Palm oil continues to be weak with an expected increase in supply. Corn runs at a high level supported by multiple factors [1]. Variety Strategy Tracking Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton shows a third consecutive positive trend, breaking through and strengthening technically. Factors such as the upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting on tariffs, domestic macro - favorable policies, low imported cotton volume, and decreased port inventory support the rebound. However, weak downstream demand after the consumption peak season may resist the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 12875 and resistance at 13000 [1][2]. Soybean Meal - The main 2509 contract of soybean meal first rises then falls sharply, continuing the downward trend. The increasing national oil mill压榨量 strengthens the expectation of loose supply, pressuring the futures price. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2914 [3]. Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil first rises then falls, with a continuous decline. The expected increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the increase in China's procurement volume suppress the price. The technical situation remains weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7944 [5]. Sugar - The main 2509 contract of sugar rebounds, boosted by short - covering. The strong production and sales data in the domestic sugar market provide upward momentum. However, the technical weakness has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions and observe whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average resistance, with support at 5808 and resistance at 5859 [8]. Soybean No.1 - The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 continues to decline. The stable price of inland soybeans, light market trading, increasing imported soybean supply, and weak downstream demand suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell, with support at 4138 and resistance at 4188 [9][11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil rises then falls, with a volatile market. The improvement of soybean supply and the increase in oil mill operating rate will lead to an increase in supply and inventory, limiting the upward space. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 7752 and resistance at 7806 [12]. Corn - The main 2507 contract of corn oscillates and closes positively, running at a high level. Factors such as the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain, strong willingness of traders to hold and support prices, the linkage between wheat and corn prices, and the intention of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory support the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2370 and resistance at 2387 [14]. Live Pigs - The 2509 contract of live pigs first declines then rises, with a volatile trend and a downward trend remaining. High inventory in the breeding end, increased planned slaughter volume in May, and weak demand after the May Day holiday suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell at high prices, with support at 13820 and resistance at 14000 [17]. Eggs - The main 2506 contract of eggs first rises then falls, with a continuous downward trend. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow elimination of old hens, and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to sufficient supply and slow inventory digestion. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2875 and resistance at 2900 [20]. Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds slightly but remains weak. The slowdown in post - holiday sales, high - level long - liquidation on the futures market, and technical weakness continue. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss set, with support at 7765 and resistance at 7864 [21][23].

短线多空交织原油再度反弹 摘要: 短线看昨晚多空交织,哈萨克斯坦公开表示 5月没有减产计划, 此前减产补偿落地可能性继续降低,但盘面未反应利空而是在美国财 政部又一次发布对伊朗的新制裁后延续反弹,近期短线利多始终围绕 有关伊朗方面。但目前仍是反弹而非反转看待。 原油中期三大驱动:供需、宏观、地缘目前均未看到反转,仍偏 空看待。短期看，五一假期内 OPEC+在 5 月会议上确认 6 月加速增产 41.1 万桶/日,与五月增产幅度保持一致,此前 220 万桶/日的减产 补偿计划额度回补大半,究其原因还是哈萨克斯坦、伊拉克等国对减 产配额的阳奉阴违,使沙特有意再度通过加速增产表达不满,沙特表 达出新一轮价格战倾向。OPEC+连续加速增产后,原油市场供应过剩 预期进一步加剧,原油中长期的下行压力增大。但除了供需驱动外, 地缘方面可能是潜在的短期变数:五一期间美伊第三轮谈判推迟,美 对伊朗再度发起新一轮制裁,以及胡塞袭击以色列机场后以表态伊朗 为幕后帮手,使伊朗方面的地缘驱动变动成为潜在可能的"短线突发 驱动"。考虑到原油阶梯式的盘面走法,落地到交易策略上,节前空 单可把止盈进一步下移至今日高点,如止盈后再等反弹逢高空 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the recent trends and influencing factors of various agricultural products. Overall, the prices of some products are under pressure due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand, while others are supported by factors like strong demand and limited supply [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Sugar - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of sugar gapped down and fell sharply, affected by the decline in the external market [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season has a strong start, with sufficient supply and expected production increase, which strengthens the market's expectation of loose supply. The domestic import profit window for out - of - quota sugar is open, and the subsequent arrival pressure may increase. The spot trading is light [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 5800 and resistance at 5849 [2]. (2) Soybean No.1 - **Trend**: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 reversed and fell sharply, entering a downward trend [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The acceptance of high - priced domestic soybeans in the market is low, and the overall market trading is light. The arrival of imported soybeans eases the shortage of soybeans in oil mills, and the consumption of soy products enters the off - season [3]. - **Strategy**: Close long positions and hold light - position short positions, with support at 4100 and resistance at 4194 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of palm oil first declined and then rose, but the price is still in a downward trend [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The decline of the Malaysian palm oil futures price in the external market is narrowed by short - covering. The export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil is lower than the production growth rate, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The domestic import profit of palm oil rises, and the subsequent purchases increase, but the demand is still suppressed by the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7974 [5]. (4) Soybean Oil - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: The overall inventory of the three major domestic oils has increased, and the inventory of soybean oil has increased significantly. With the increase in the arrival of soybeans, the oil mill's operating rate will rise, and the supply of soybean oil will increase [7]. - **Strategy**: Conduct short - term trading, with support at 7712 and resistance at 7782 [7]. (5) Soybean Meal - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal oscillated narrowly, and the downward trend remained unchanged [10]. - **Influencing Factors**: The operating rhythms of soybean oil mills in different regions are different, and the spot prices in the north and south are differentiated. With the increase in soybean supply, the oil mill's operating rate will rise, and the supply of soybean meal will increase. The downstream feed enterprises are cautious, and the trade enterprises have some purchases [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 2895 and resistance at 2930 [10]. (6) Corn - **Trend**: The main 2507 contract of corn declined slightly and fluctuated at a high level [11]. - **Influencing Factors**: The remaining grain in the corn - producing areas is almost sold out, and the trading entities are reluctant to sell. The operating rate of downstream corn starch enterprises has increased, and the demand from feed enterprises has also gradually increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly [13]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position long positions on dips, with support at 2351 and resistance at 2387 [13]. (7) Live Pigs - **Trend**: The 2509 contract of live pigs was restricted in rebound, oscillated and declined, and the downward trend continued [14]. - **Influencing Factors**: The存栏 of the breeding end is at a high level, and the willingness to sell has increased. The planned slaughter volume in May has increased. After the May Day holiday, the demand has decreased, and the support from the demand side is insufficient [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions on rallies, with support at 13800 and resistance at 13940 [17]. (8) Eggs - **Trend**: The contracts of eggs showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main 2506 contract of the near - month oscillated slightly, but the downward trend remained unchanged [18]. - **Influencing Factors**: The存栏 of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. During the May Day holiday, the spot price continued to fall, the market demand decreased, and the inventory digestion was slow [18]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 2850 and resistance at 2905 [18]. (9) Cotton - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of cotton oscillated and closed up, continuing the rebound trend [20]. - **Influencing Factors**: The meeting between Chinese and US senior officials on tariff issues has boosted market sentiment. The strong rise of cotton yarn futures has driven the rise of cotton. However, the weak downstream demand limits the rebound height [20]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position long positions, with support at 12885 and resistance at 13015 [20]. (10) Apples - **Trend**: The main 2510 contract of apples fell sharply, and the trend turned downward [22]. - **Influencing Factors**: After the festival, the purchase speed of market merchants has slowed down. The apple inventory is still at a five - year low, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down slightly. The futures price was under pressure from long - position liquidation and broke through the support level [22]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions and set stop - losses, with support at 7722 and resistance at 7828 [22].