Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Date: November 28, 2025 [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints stated in the provided content Group 4: Data Summary Basis and Spread - Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) on 11/27 was 53, with a daily change of 36 [3] - East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) on 11/27 was 83, with a daily change of 36 [3] - South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) on 11/27 was 33, with a daily change of 26 [3] - 12 - 01 spread on 11/27 was -22, with a daily change of -15 [3] - 12 - 03 spread on 11/27 was -51, with a daily change of -32 [3] - 01 - 02 spread on 11/27 was -5, with a daily change of -11 [3] Futures Contract - BU main contract (01) price on 11/27 was 3007, with a daily change of -36 [3] - Volume on 11/27 was 376,428, with a daily change of 33,817 [3] - Open interest on 11/27 was 414,242, with a daily change of 31,972 [3] - Combined orders remained at 4,690 with no change [3] Crude Oil and Spot - Brent crude (Jingbo) on 11/27 was 63.1 (price 3000), with a change of 0.7 (price change 0) [3] - Hongrun spot price on 11/27 was 2980, with no change [3] - Zhenjiang Warehouse spot price on 11/27 was 3090, with no change [3] - Foshan Warehouse spot price on 11/27 was 3040, with a change of -10 [3] Profit - Asphalt - Ma Rui profit on 11/27 was 181, with a daily change of -38 [3] - Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit on 11/27 was 772, with a daily change of -30 [3]

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Singapore high - sulfur cracking weakened rapidly this week, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO cracking dropped rapidly. The EW strengthened this week [4]. - Singapore 0.5% cracking weakened oscillatively this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatively, and the basis strengthened slightly [4]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased, Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased [5]. - The expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks strengthened, the prices of external gasoline and diesel dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week [5]. - After the Al Zour refinery caught fire and shut down on October 21, the Singapore basis started to rebound recently [5]. - Global residue has entered an inventory accumulation cycle, external cracking is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillatory pattern. Maintain a high - short idea for the internal and external prices of FU01, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [5]. Group 2: Data Changes Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 8.19 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 0.57 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.30 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 14.12 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 13.55 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 1.50 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | - 7.62 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 5.26 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 1.93 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 4.81 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 1.12 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.40 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 3.48 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 1.25 | | FOB VLSFO | 5.98 | | 380 basis | - 1.23 | | High - sulfur internal - external price difference | 2.1 | | Low - sulfur internal - external price difference | - 3.8 | [3] Domestic FU | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 4 | | FU 05 | 0 | | FU 09 | - 6 | | FU 01 - 05 | 4 | | FU 05 - 09 | 6 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 10 | [3] Domestic LU | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 0 | | LU 05 | 19 | | LU 09 | 9 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 19 | | LU 05 - 09 | 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 9 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, due to low supply and downstream enterprises' restocking demand, corn prices will remain strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern remains tight, and planting costs will strongly support prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices and are pressured by high inventory. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - Sugar: The global and domestic sugar supply is in a loose pattern. Maintain a short - selling strategy, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. - Cotton: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [9]. - Eggs: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. - Apples: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. - Pigs: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, prices in different regions changed slightly. For example, the price in潍坊 increased by 10, while the price in other regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and trade profits also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply is low, and downstream enterprises need to restock, driving up prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is tight, and planting costs support prices. Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short - term and depend on downstream consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price in some regions decreased, the basis decreased by 24, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7618 [6]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the cost of domestic sugar is the key support. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the cost of domestic sugar may be broken through. The supply is loose, and the short - selling strategy is maintained, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, and the import profit, warehouse receipts + forecasts, and other data also changed [9]. - **Analysis**: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, and long - term long positions are suitable [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in some production areas increased, and the basis increased by 22 [12]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases due to the longer storage time. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis of different months had corresponding changes [13][14]. - **Analysis**: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 95 [15]. - **Analysis**: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16].

Group 1: Aromatics and Rubber Market Overview - The report provides daily and weekly data on various aromatics and rubber products including PTA, MEG, polyester staple fiber, natural rubber, and styrene [1][3][6][10] Group 2: PTA Market Analysis - **Price and Spread Changes**: PTA spot prices and spreads such as PX processing spread, PTA processing spread, and polyester margin have shown fluctuations. The PTA basis has strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee has improved [1] - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 million - ton PTA device has restarted [1] - **Market Outlook**: Near - term TA partial device maintenance led to a decline in operating rate, while polyester load increased, resulting in inventory reduction. In the future, TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, and the cost - side PX pattern is good. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of buying low and positive spreads and expanding processing fees [1] Group 3: MEG Market Analysis - **Price and Spread Changes**: MEG prices have changed slightly, and the basis has weakened. Coal - based MEG profitability is low [3] - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton MEG device has restarted, and Sinochem Quanzhou's 500,000 - ton device has undergone maintenance [3] - **Market Outlook**: Near - term domestic oil - based MEG increased production, while coal - based MEG had partial maintenance and load reduction. Overall operating rate declined, and port inventory accumulated. In the future, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and the current valuation compression space is limited. Attention should be paid to short - term selling put opportunities, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [3] Group 4: Polyester Staple Fiber Market Analysis - **Price and Spread Changes**: Polyester staple fiber prices have changed slightly, and profits have fluctuated [3] - **Market Outlook**: Near - term device operation is stable, production and sales have improved slightly, and inventory is basically flat. In the future, short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [3] Group 5: Natural Rubber Market Analysis - **Price and Spread Changes**: Natural rubber prices have shown some fluctuations, and spreads such as the difference between different rubber types and processing margins have also changed [6] - **Market Outlook**: The national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [6] Group 6: Styrene Market Analysis - **Price and Spread Changes**: Styrene prices and related raw material prices have changed slightly, and domestic profitability of styrene and its downstream products has also fluctuated [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 796 with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 7; PB powder is at 799, up 1 daily and 7 weekly; Mac powder is 784, down 3 daily and unchanged weekly; Jinbuba powder is 752, up 1 daily and 9 weekly; mixed powder is 734, up 2 daily and 7 weekly; Super Special powder is 683, up 2 daily and 8 weekly; Carajás powder is 890, unchanged daily and up 5 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 786, up 1 daily and 7 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian blend is 838, unchanged daily and up 7 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 776, up 1 daily and 7 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 781, up 1 daily and 7 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 880, unchanged daily and up 4 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 741, up 1 daily and 9 weekly; Karara concentrate is 882, unchanged daily and up 4 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 618, up 2 daily and 8 weekly; Atlas powder is 729, up 2 daily and 7 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate is 1014, unchanged daily and weekly [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 799.5, up 2.5 daily and 11 weekly; i2605 is 773, down 0.5 daily and up 20 weekly; i2609 is 748, down 0.5 daily and up 20 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 103.26, up 0.76 daily and 2.06 weekly; FE05 is 100.61, up 0.7 daily and 2.01 weekly; FE09 is 98.38, up 0.62 daily and 1.91 weekly [1]. 3.3 Premium and Spread - **Premium**: Information on PB block/block premium, U - ball/pellet premium is presented in the form of charts but specific numerical data is not summarized here [1]. - **Spread**: For DCE contracts, the spread between i2601 and i2605 is - 51.5, with a daily change of 35.5, down 2.5 daily and 5.5 weekly; the spread between i2605 and i2609 is 26.5, with a daily change of 62, up 0.5 daily and down 14.5 weekly; the spread between i2609 and i2601 is 25, with a daily change of 87, up 0.5 daily and down 14.5 weekly. For SGX contracts, the spread between FE01 and FE05 is - 4.88, with a daily change of - 29.7, down 3.1 daily and 8.1 weekly; the spread between FE05 and FE09 is 2.65, with a daily change of - 32, down 1.6 daily and up 5.3 weekly; the spread between FE09 and FE01 is 2.23, with a daily change of - 39.1, up 0.6 daily and 6 weekly [1]. 3.4 Import Profit - Import profit for Newman powder is - 15.68; for PB powder is - 14.52; for Mac powder is 2.01; for Jinbuba powder is 6.47; for mixed powder is - 17.04; for Super Special powder is - 29.3; for Carajás powder is - 16.79; for Brazilian blend is 1.23; for Roy Hill powder is 14.4 [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG futures prices declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China LPG at 4315 (-49), with the propane - LPG price difference narrowing. [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but more arrivals are expected in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4310 (+0), in Shandong was 4450 (-10), and in South China was 4335 (+5). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 5. The 01 - 02 spread was 89 (-1). FEI was 526.79 (+6.79) and CP was 498.8 (+5.8) dollars per ton. [1] Weekly Changes - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49). [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.995, UK 4.449, France 3.409, Germany 2.679, Italy 3.401, Spain 3.164, Switzerland 0.139, Greece 3.286, Japan 1.795, China 1.844, Australia 4.495, New Zealand 4.228 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.477, UK 3.747, Germany 2.025, Japan 0.968, Italy 2.181, China (1Y yield) 1.410, Australia 3.774 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.354, South Africa zar 17.156, Korean won 1462.650, Thai baht 32.237, Malaysian ringgit 4.132 [3] - The latest values of on - shore RMB 7.080, off - shore RMB 7.074, RMB central parity rate 7.078, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.939 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: Mexican index 62694.730, UK index 9693.930, France CAC 8099.470, Germany DAX 23767.960, Spanish index 16361.800, Japanese Nikkei 50167.100, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 25945.930, Shanghai Composite Index 3875.260, Taiwan index 27554.530, South Korean index 3986.910, Indian index 8545.865, Thai index 1252.710, Malaysian index 1617.460, Australian index 8912.027, emerging - economy index 1370.390 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3556.200, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 266.314, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.370, US high - yield credit - bond index 2892.130, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 408.530, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1799.674 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares 3875.26, CSI 300 4515.40, SSE 50 2972.27, ChiNext 3031.30, CSI 500 6951.28 [4] - Percentage changes: A - shares 0.29%, CSI 300 - 0.05%, SSE 50 0.02%, ChiNext - 0.44%, CSI 500 - 0.20% [4] Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 13.95, SSE 50 11.88, CSI 500 31.67, S&P 500 27.08, Germany DAX 18.43 [4] -环比 changes: CSI 300 0.03, SSE 50 0.03, CSI 500 - 0.07, S&P 500 0.00, Germany DAX 0.04 [4] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 - 0.30, Germany DAX 2.75 [4] -环比 changes: S&P 500 0.00, Germany DAX - 0.02 [4] Fund Flows - Latest values: A - shares - 623.07, main board - 470.76, ChiNext - 114.30, CSI 300 - 77.38 [4] - 5 - day average values: A - shares - 435.46, main board - 401.54, ChiNext - 25.24, CSI 300 - 52.11 [4] Transaction Data of Other Markets Transaction Amount - Latest values: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 17097.94, CSI 300 4177.90, SSE 50 1051.06, small - and medium - sized board 3275.75, ChiNext 4947.35 [5] -环比 changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets - 735.52, CSI 300 - 95.71, SSE 50 78.48, small - and medium - sized board - 297.22, ChiNext - 288.64 [5] Main Contract Basis - Basis: IF - 22.80, IH - 9.87, IC - 55.08 [5] - Magnitude: IF - 0.50%, IH - 0.33%, IC - 0.79% [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Closing prices: T2303 108.12, TF2303 105.68, T2306 107.90, TF2306 105.77 [5] - Percentage changes: T2303 0.05%, TF2303 0.03%, T2306 0.04%, TF2306 0.03% [5] Fund Rates - Rates: R001 1.3706%, R007 1.5185%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800% [5] - Daily changes: R001 - 15.00 BP, R007 0.00 BP, SHIBOR - 3M 0.00 BP [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: November 27, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices closed lower. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations made significant progress, and Zelensky and Trump will discuss the peace plan next week, with Russia being open to it, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US. The risk premium of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly retreated, and the monthly spread of crude oil has declined, showing a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching a new high since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US drilling rigs and fracturing operations has increased, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have risen. Recently, there is still room for downward correction in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With supply exceeding demand, the strategy of shorting crude oil from a high level is maintained. The Brent price is expected to be between $55 and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US draft of the Russia-Ukraine conflict solution [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has resumed oil shipments at its Black Sea terminal [3]. - The Natural Resources Ministry and the Ministry of Electricity of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, along with Dana Gas of the UAE, are currently on-site to investigate a drone attack incident [3]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency has finalized a new rule, granting oil and gas operators an additional grace period of over a year to comply with the mandatory requirements of replacing leaky equipment and regularly monitoring methane leaks set by former President Biden. The Trump administration stated that the rule will affect hundreds of oil and gas sources across the country and is expected to save approximately $750 million in compliance costs over the next decade. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, with a short-term greenhouse effect 80 times that of carbon dioxide. Oil and gas operations are the largest industrial methane emission source in the US, and the Biden-era regulations aimed to reduce methane emissions and the emissions of volatile organic compounds including the carcinogen benzene [3]. 3.2 Inventory - **API Inventory Data**: For the week ending November 21, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels, compared with a previous value of an increase of 4.448 million barrels; the API gasoline inventory increased by 0.539 million barrels, compared with a previous value of an increase of 1.546 million barrels; the API refined oil inventory increased by 0.753 million barrels, compared with a previous value of an increase of 0.577 million barrels [4]. - **EIA Report Data**: In the week of November 21, US crude oil exports decreased by 560,000 barrels per day to 3.598 million barrels per day; US domestic crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels to 13.814 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 2.774 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 0.65% increase; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.381 million barrels per day, a 0.05% decrease compared to the same period last year; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 411.4 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.436 million barrels per day, an increase of 486,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - **Domestic Gasoline and Diesel Inventory**: From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.2331 million tons, a 1.75% decrease, and diesel inventory was 12.2708 million tons, a 4.25% decrease. The inventories of both gasoline and diesel in major refineries and social sectors decreased, while those in local refineries increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated [5]. - **Fujairah Refined Oil Inventory**: As of the week ending November 24, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 197,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The light distillate inventory decreased by 934,000 barrels to 6.291 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory increased by 205,000 barrels to 3.393 million barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 926,000 barrels to 11.165 million barrels [5]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices closed lower. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations made significant progress, and Zelensky and Trump will discuss the peace plan next week, with Russia being open to it, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US. The risk premium of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly retreated, and the monthly spread of crude oil has declined, showing a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching a new high since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US drilling rigs and fracturing operations has increased, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have risen. Recently, there is still room for downward correction in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With supply exceeding demand, the strategy of shorting crude oil from a high level is maintained. The Brent price is expected to be between $55 and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US draft of the Russia-Ukraine conflict solution [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Monthly Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 17 on 11/26, with a daily change of 25 and a weekly change of 15 [4][12] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 47 on 11/26, with a weekly change of 5 [4][12] - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was 7 on 11/26, with a daily change of 25 and a weekly change of -15 [4][12] - The 12 - 01 spread was -7 on 11/26, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 0 [4][12] - The 12 - 03 spread was -19 on 11/26, with a weekly change of 30 [4][12] - The 01 - 02 spread was 6 on 11/26, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 21 [4][12] 3.2 Futures Market - The BU main contract (01) was 3043 on 11/26, with a daily change of -25 and a weekly change of -15 [4][12] - The trading volume was 342,611 on 11/26, with a daily change of 100,034 and a weekly change of -96,590 [4][12] - The open interest was 382,270 on 11/26, with a daily change of 38,521 and a weekly change of 52,113 [4][12] - The delivery volume was 4,690, with no daily or weekly change [4][12] 3.3 Spot Market - Brent crude oil was $62.5 on 11/26, with a daily change of -$0.9 and a weekly change of -$1.0 [4][12] - Jingbo's price was 3000 on 11/26, with a weekly change of -20 [4][12] - Hongrun's price was 2980 on 11/26, with no daily or weekly change [4][12] - Zhenjiang Warehouse's price was 3090 on 11/26, with a weekly change of -10 [4][12] - Foshan Warehouse's price was 3050 on 11/26, with a weekly change of -30 [4][12] 3.4 Profit - The asphalt Ma Rui profit was 219 on 11/26, with a daily change of 42 and a weekly change of 49 [4][12] - The comprehensive profit of Ma Rui - type refineries was 802 on 11/26, with a daily change of 38 and a weekly change of 47 [5][13]

Group 1: Overall Information - The research report is from the Non - ferrous Team of the Research Center on November 27, 2025, covering copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Copper - This week, copper prices rose first and then fell slightly. Downstream consumption has been weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts for copper downstream is ongoing. The LME copper had concentrated warehousing, suppressing the Cash - 3M spread. The scrap - refined copper price difference has widened, and the scrap copper subsidy policy in Jiangxi has loosened slightly. The downstream's willingness to place orders rebounds around 85,000 yuan, which may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1] - The changes from November 20 to November 26 include a 5 - unit increase in spot premium, a 70 - unit increase in scrap - refined copper price difference, a 74.73 - unit increase in spot import profit, an 86.48 - unit increase in three - month import profit, a 425 - unit increase in LME cancelled warrants, and a 75 - unit decrease in LME inventory [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices continued to decline, and aluminum ingot inventories remained flat. Aluminum rods, sheets, strips, and foils saw slight inventory reduction. Downstream consumption is okay, and the acceptance of high prices has increased. In the short term, it may show a volatile trend. Overseas and domestic production capacities are gradually being put into operation. It is expected that the supply - demand will be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2] - From November 20 to November 26, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices decreased by 40, 40, and 30 respectively. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2000, and the aluminum LME cancelled warrants decreased by 2000 [1][25] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic and imported TC is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The new production of Huoshaoyun zinc ingots started in November, with a monthly output of about 8,000 - 10,000 tons. In December, the maintenance of most smelters is expected to reduce production by more than 10,000 tons. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory is fluctuating, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity, and the positive arbitrage opportunity for 01 - 03 [5] - From November 20 to November 26, the Shanghai zinc ingot price remained unchanged, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 20, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 10, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1925, and the LME zinc cancelled warrants increased by 2450 [5] Group 5: Nickel - On the supply side, the price of nickel sulfate is relatively firm, and the output of pure nickel has decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is generally weak. After the price decline, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has strengthened slightly. Both domestic and overseas inventories are continuously increasing. In the short term, the fundamentals are weak. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [8] - From November 20 to November 26, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 950, the Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 200, the Russian nickel premium decreased by 100, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1038, and the LME nickel cancelled warrants increased by 630 [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the production schedule of steel mills in October increased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory is at a high level. Fundamentally, it remains weak. The Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [10] - From November 20 to November 26, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 50, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 25 [10] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices fell, and the sales situation improved. On the supply side, the recovery of recycling profits has stimulated resumption of production, and the production of primary lead remains at a high level. The supply is loose. On the demand side, the battery production rate remained flat this week, and the monthly battery inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the social inventory has started to increase. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, ranging from 17,100 to 17,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see the increase in warehouse receipts and the price - support situation of waste batteries [11][13] - From November 20 to November 26, the spot premium decreased by 10, the spot import profit increased by 61.97, the futures import profit increased by 52.91, the LME lead inventory increased by 400, and the LME lead cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [11] Group 8: Tin - This week, the center of tin prices rose. On the supply side, the processing fee at the ore end remains low, and the rebound space is limited. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. There are still differences in the output overseas. In the short term, the fundamentals are okay, mainly following the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will mainly show restorative growth with limited elasticity, and the demand will determine the upside space. It is recommended to hold at low prices close to the cost line or use it as a long - position in non - ferrous metals [16] - From November 20 to November 26, the spot import profit decreased by 4181.61, the spot export profit increased by 3654.24, the LME tin inventory increased by 40, and the LME tin cancelled warrants increased by 105 [16] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, while some factories in Inner Mongolia and Gansu resumed production. In late November, Sichuan and Yunnan may reduce production by about 20 units. In Q4, the supply - demand of industrial silicon is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operating rate is low. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [19] - From November 20 to November 26, the 421 Yunnan basis, 421 Sichuan basis, 553 East China basis, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 60, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 289 [19] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - Affected by the expected lithium - battery demand and market sentiment, the price of lithium carbonate was strong before. After the exchange adjusted the transaction handling fee and trading limit, the market sentiment declined significantly. The resumption of production of mines in Jiangxi also affected the market. The raw material supply is still tight, and the profit margin of the smelting end is small. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and downstream inquiries have decreased. After the price decline, some downstream enterprises have started post - point - pricing. In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [21] - From November 20 to November 26, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price both increased by 750, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 435 [21]