甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/04 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/11/2 7 801 2100 2073 2410 2410 2390 2590 247 317 -34 -11 - 2025/11/2 8 801 2110 2080 2410 2410 2390 2593 247 317 -19 -20 - 2025/12/0 1 801 2115 2085 2425 2410 2390 2595 247 317 -14 -15 - 2025/12/0 2 801 2127 2100 2435 2475 2390 2600 - 317 - -25 - 2025/12/0 3 801 - - - 2475 - - - - - -24 - 日度变化 0 - - - 0 - - - - - 1 - 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/04 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/27 100 2744 115035 35873 -1077.91 56.44 32.0 48.0 16.56 157175 6075 2025/11/28 115 3017 115035 35244 -1071.50 -68.33 32.0 48.0 44.69 159425 6575 2025/12/01 100 3573 115035 31495 -1332.99 -112.30 31.0 47.0 69.10 159425 6475 2025/12/02 120 3264 115035 30568 -1557.87 -95.77 38.0 48.0 69.18 161800 6300 2025/12/03 155 3604 115035 28969 -1649.33 -113.35 38.0 48.0 88.38 162150 56875 变 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/04 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/11/27 | 3210 | 3220 | 3210 | 3250 | 3480 | 3360 | | 2025/11/28 | 3210 | 3260 | 3210 | 3250 | 3510 | 3390 | | 2025/12/01 | 3250 | 3310 | 3290 | 3310 | 3560 | 3430 | | 2025/12/02 | 3250 | 3320 | 3300 | 3310 | 3560 | 3440 | | 2025/12/03 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - On December 3, the Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 78, down 36 from the previous day; the East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 88, down 46; the South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was 18, down 46 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread was -25 with no change; the 12 - 03 spread was -52; the 01 - 02 spread was -9, down 4 [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - The BU main - contract (01) price on December 3 was 2952, up 36. The trading volume was 510923, up 67578 (13% increase), and the open interest was 442532, down 32101 [3]. - The contract size remained at 4690 [3]. 3. Spot Market - On December 3, Brent crude oil was at 62.5, down 0.7. The prices of Jingbo, Zhenjiang Warehouse, and Foshan Warehouse decreased by 10, while Hongrun's price remained unchanged [3]. 4. Profits - On December 3, the asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 163, up 25, and the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 776, up 21 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, focus on opportunities for low - level positive spreads and expanding processing fees [2][10] - For MEG, in the short - term, consider selling put options, while in the long - term, the overall pattern is expected to be weak [3] - For polyester short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [3] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber price affected by rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Near - end TA partial device restarts, start - up increases, polyester load slightly rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens, and spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks. In the future, TA maintains high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so the inventory accumulation slope is not high, and PX pattern is good [2] - PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34), and Honggang 250 - million - ton device restarts [9] MEG - Near - end domestic coal - chemical industry restarts intensively, start - up increases, overseas partial devices are under maintenance, port inventory is stable at the beginning of next week, weekly arrival forecast is low, basis weakens, and coal - based profit slightly improves. In the future, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and the current valuation compression space may be limited. Pay attention to short - term put - selling opportunities, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [3] - Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarts, and MEG spot basis is near 01(-1) [3] Polyester Short - Fiber - Near - end device operation is stable, start - up is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material inventory decreases, and finished product inventory accumulates. In the future, short - fiber demand basically maintains the previous state, short - fiber export maintains high growth, short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and pay attention to warehouse receipt situation [3] - Spot price is near 6337, and market basis is near 01 - 100 [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - National explicit inventory is stable and at a low absolute level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - Daily changes show that ethylene price is stable, pure benzene price has minor changes, and styrene price increases. Domestic profits of styrene, EPS, and PS have different degrees of improvement [7] PX - PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the shipping space in the second half of December, and the expected trend is stable with a slight increase [3]. - The EC2602 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there is a game for the peak - season price height. Although high shipping capacity limits the upside, there is no overly pessimistic expectation because the pre - Spring Festival concentrated shipment has not fully started, the cargo volume on the European route has been strong this year with obvious seasonal features, and the contract covers the freight rates from the second half of January to the first ten days of February, and the seasonal freight rate peak is usually 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival [3]. - The short - term downside space of the EC2604 contract is small, and it is still recommended to adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **EC2512**: Yesterday's closing price was 1653.5, up 1.22%, trading volume was 523, and open interest was 3813 with a decrease of 216 [2]. - **EC2602**: Yesterday's closing price was 1540.1, up 0.38%, trading volume was 22299, and open interest was 35008 with a decrease of 1354 [2]. - **EC2604**: Yesterday's closing price was 1083.1, up 1.03%, trading volume was 3303, and open interest was 18997 with a decrease of 156 [2]. - **EC2606**: Yesterday's closing price was 1254.5, up 1.73%, trading volume was 381, and open interest was 2167 with an increase of 13 [2]. - **EC2608**: Yesterday's closing price was 1380.1, up 0.38%, trading volume was 247, and open interest was 157 with a decrease of 18 [2]. - **EC2610**: Yesterday's closing price was 1042.2, up 0.95%, trading volume data was not clear, and open interest was 3889 with a decrease of 57 [2]. 3.2 Month - spread Data - **EC2512 - 2504**: The spread was 8.9, compared with 561.5 the previous day, 558.7 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was 46.8 [2]. - **EC2512 - 2602**: The spread was 14.0, compared with 99.4 the previous day, 144.2 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was - 83.1 [2]. - **EC2502 - 2604**: The spread was - 5.1, compared with 462.1 the previous day, 414.5 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was 129.9 [2]. 3.3 Index Data - **SCFIS (European Route)**: Updated on Mondays, as of December 1, 2025, it was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, and up 20.715% in the last period [2]. - **SCFI (European Route)**: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period, and down 3.58% in the last period [2]. - **CCFI**: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period, and up 2.09% in the last period [2]. - **NCFI**: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period, and down 2.83% in the last period [2]. 3.4 Recent European Route Shipping Information - In the first half of December, the price increase announcement failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 US dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the futures market. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 US dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 US dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market [4]. - YML reduced the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 US dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 US dollars [4]. - In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 US dollars, ONE to 2800 US dollars, and MSK's opening price was 2400 US dollars. It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January shipping space in early December [4]. - MSK's opening quotation for Week 51 was 2400 US dollars, a 200 - dollar increase from the previous period, equivalent to 1660 points on the futures market [4]. - MSK added a new ship, MDV ELECTRA, on January 20, with unknown shipping capacity [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Iron Ore Spot and Forward Market - The latest price of the Platts 62 Index is $107.80, with a daily change of $1.20 and a weekly change of $0.45 [1] - Different iron ore varieties such as Newman powder, PB powder, and Mac powder show various price changes in terms of daily, weekly, and import profit [1] Exchange Futures Market - For the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the latest price of i2601 is 799.5 yuan, with a daily change of -1.0 yuan and a weekly change of 2.5 yuan. The monthly - spread is -46.5, with a daily change of 27.8 and a weekly change of -6.7 [1] - The latest price of i2605 is 777.0 yuan, with a daily change of 1.5 yuan and a weekly change of 3.5 yuan. The monthly - spread is 22.5, with a daily change of 50.3 and a weekly change of -9.2 [1] - The latest price of i2609 is 753.0 yuan, with a daily change of 1.5 yuan and a weekly change of 4.5 yuan. The monthly - spread is 24.0, with a daily change of 74.3 and a weekly change of -12.2 [1] Other Market Data - PB block/block ore premium, U - ball/ball pellet premium, and other premiums also have corresponding price changes [1] - There are price differences and changes in basis/inside - outside market spreads and monthly spreads [1]

| 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3878.00 | 4531.05 | 2963.08 | 3036.79 | 6996.36 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.51 | -0.51 | -0.52 | -1.12 | -0.62 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 13.94 | 11.80 | 31.88 | 27.19 | 18.37 | | 环比变化 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.16 | 0.04 | -0.02 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.39 | 2.70 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | 0.01 | 0.01 | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪深300 | | 最新值 | -112 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, production and sales, inventory and profit data of glass and soda ash, and shows the relevant historical data trends through charts, but does not clearly put forward the core viewpoints [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Glass - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in some regions changed slightly. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass of Shahe Safety increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, while that of Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1044.0 to 1036.0. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1169.0 to 1125.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased from 1037.0 to 1020.0 [1]. - **Production and Sales**: On December 3, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 109, in Hubei was 99, in East China was 98, and in South China was 131 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's coal - fired glass increased from 105.7 to 113.3, while the profit of South China's natural gas glass remained at - 188.1. The profit of North China's natural gas glass increased from - 306.6 to - 304.5. The profit of 05FG and 01FG on the natural gas futures market decreased [1]. Soda Ash - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in some regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1160.0 to 1130.0. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1244.0 to 1233.0, and the SA01 contract price decreased from 1183.0 to 1165.0 [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the second - phase project of Yuanxing was put into production. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was about 1120, and the price delivered to Shahe was about 1130 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's ammonia - soda process first increased and then decreased, while the profit of North China's combined - soda process increased [1].

| 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/27 | 351.22 | 390.78 | -7.41 | 651.68 | -260.90 | 25.79 | 39.56 | | 2025/11/28 | 353.76 | 391.86 | -7.40 | 658.00 | -266.14 | 26.28 | 38.10 | | 2025/12/01 | 352.55 | 394.14 | -7.12 | 645.54 | -251.40 | 25.52 | 41.59 | | 2025/12/02 | 348.23 | 390.52 | -7.51 | 645. ...