纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/06 SP主力合约收盘价： 5530.00 | 日期 | 2026/01/05 | 2025/12/31 | 2025/12/30 | 2025/12/29 | 2025/12/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5530.00 | 5532.00 | 5568.00 | 5510.00 | 5630.00 | | 折美元价 | 692.18 | 691.61 | 696.05 | 686.78 | 702.06 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.03615% | -0.64655% | 1.05263% | -2.13144% | 0.46395% | | 山东银星基差 | 35 | 58 | 22 | 80 | -40 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 30 | 28 | -8 | 50 | -70 | | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the futures market has changed little. For the 02 contract, its price mainly depends on the spot market and enters the delivery logic, making it difficult to predict the future price decline rhythm. It is not recommended to enter the market at the current price level [3]. - The valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, but there is short - term upward risk. The strategy is to go short on rallies [3]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Based on the long - term logic of resuming navigation and the off - season, the 10 contract should be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Futures Contract Data - **EC Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 are 1855.5, 1198.0, 1389.0, 1502.3, and 1082.6 respectively, with daily increases of 3.01%, 2.74%, 1.54%, 0.15%, and 2.13% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 are 657.5 and - 191.0 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 22.2 and 10.9, and week - on - week changes of - 12.2 and - 29.6 [2]. Spot Index Data - **SCHIS (European Line)**: On January 6, 2025, it was 3387.69 points, a decrease of 3.59% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: On December 26, 2025, it was 1690 dollars/TEU, an increase of 10.24% from the previous period [2]. European Line Spot Situation - **Week 2**: MSK's price remained flat at 2500 dollars, but the opening price at Hamburg Port was 2600 dollars (+100). Some PA routes saw price cuts, while OA routes had price increases. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [4]. - **Price Increase Notices**: Some shipping companies issued price increase notices for the second half of January. For example, on January 1, MSC announced price increases for 20GP and 40GP containers on the European line to 2400/4000 dollars respectively [4]. - **MSK's Week 3 Opening Price**: It was 2600 dollars, and the price at Hamburg was 2700 dollars (+100) [4]. Geopolitical News - On December 31, 2025, the Israeli military chief of staff stated that the Israeli army would continue to disarm Hamas [4]. - On January 5, 2026, the Israeli army warned residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate as it planned to attack Hamas and Hezbollah military facilities [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market showed internal differentiation this week, with the internal market fluctuating. It soared after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then declined. The external market rose, and the official price of January CP was higher than expected. The overall market was affected by factors such as the Venezuela event, oil prices, and PDH device conditions. The internal - external valuation was high, but the basis was low, and the feedback of poor PDH profits might occur, with a bearish driving force [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On January 5, 2026, the prices of civil LPG in East China, Shandong, and South China were 4413 (+37), 4400 (+150), and 4860 (+270) respectively. The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+30). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The basis was 216 (-49), the 02 - 03 month spread was 109 (+2), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 180 (+14). As of 20:00 PM, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 512 and 517.5 US dollars respectively [1]. Weekly Data - This week, the internal market fluctuated. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 month spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 month spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30). The domestic civil LPG was differentiated, with the cheapest delivery product being Shandong civil LPG at 4250 (-20), East China at 4376 (-8), and South China at 4590 (+80). The external market rose, and the official price of January CP for propane and butane was 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively. The internal - external market strengthened. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane in January were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates declined, and the FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (a month - on - month decrease of 5.5) [1].

焦煤日报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/1/6 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1403.00 | -47.00 | -47.00 | -102.00 | 0.21% Peak Downs | 228.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 6.50 | 21.50 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 960.00 | 0.00 | -10.00 | -28.00 | 4.35% Goonyella | 229.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 8.50 | 18.50 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1340.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -80.00 | -4.29% 盘面05 | 1097.00 | -18.50 | -5.00 | -70.00 | -6.56% | | 安泽主焦 | 1500.00 | 0.00 | -100.00 | 0.00 | 5.63% 盘 ...

免责声明 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分 析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资 建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 临汾出厂价 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 吕梁出厂价 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1000.00 ...

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold: Latest price is 4352.95, change is 45.00 [1] - London Silver: Latest price is 74.22, change is 2.23 [1] - London Platinum: Latest price is 2226.00, change is 0.00 [1] - London Palladium: Latest price is 1660.00, change is 0.00 [1] - WTI Crude Oil: Latest price is 57.32, change is -0.10 [1] - LME Copper: Latest price is 12892.00, change is 396.50 [1] - US Dollar Index: Latest price is 98.46, change is 0.19 [1] - Euro to US Dollar: Latest price is 1.17, change is -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar: Latest price is 1.35, change is -0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen: Latest price is 156.86, change is 0.18 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS: Latest price is 1.94, change is 0.01 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver Inventory: Latest is 13989.52, change is 10.81 [1] - SHFE Silver Inventory: Latest is 669.55, change is -22.09 [1] - Gold ETF Holdings: Latest is 1065.13, change is -5.43 [1] - Silver ETF Holdings: Latest is 16444.14, change is 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver Inventory: Latest is 832.11, change is 0.00 [1] - SGE Gold Deferred Fee Payment Direction: Latest is 1, change is -1.00 [1] - SGE Silver Deferred Fee Payment Direction: Latest is 2, change is 0.00 [1] Group 3: Data Sources - The data in the above charts are from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [2]

Report Title - The report is titled "Iron Alloy Morning Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are provided in the report Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on January 6, 2026, the latest prices of 72 silicon iron in different regions were: 5270 yuan in Ningxia (down 30 yuan daily, up 20 yuan weekly), 5280 yuan in Inner Mongolia (down 40 yuan daily, up 10 yuan weekly), 5250 yuan in Qinghai (unchanged daily and weekly), and 5250 yuan in Shaanxi (down 20 yuan daily, up 30 yuan weekly). The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5650 yuan (unchanged daily and weekly). The export price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 1025 US dollars (up 5 US dollars daily and weekly), and that of 75 silicon iron was 1075 US dollars (up 5 US dollars daily and weekly) [2] - For silicon manganese, on January 6, 2026, the latest factory - ex prices of 6517 silicon manganese in different regions were: 5650 yuan in Inner Mongolia (unchanged daily, up 60 yuan weekly), 5570 yuan in Ningxia (unchanged daily, up 50 yuan weekly), 5730 yuan in Guangxi (down 20 yuan daily, up 30 yuan weekly), and 5700 yuan in Guizhou and Yunnan (unchanged daily, up 50 yuan weekly). The price of 6014 silicon manganese in Guangxi was 5050 yuan (unchanged daily and weekly) [2] Supply - The monthly production of silicon iron by 136 Chinese enterprises from 2022 - 2026 is presented in the report, as well as the weekly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises (with a capacity ratio of 95%) during the same period. The monthly capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are also provided [5] - The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 is shown, along with the monthly procurement price and quantity of 6517 silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group during this period [7] Demand - The report shows the monthly estimated and corrected production of crude steel in China from 2022 - 2026, the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the monthly procurement quantity and price of FeSi75 - B silicon iron by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the monthly demand for silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data) from 2022 - 2026 [5][8] Inventory - For silicon iron, the weekly inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are provided, as well as the daily total number of silicon iron warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange during the same period. The monthly average available days of silicon iron inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the whole of China are also presented [6] - For silicon manganese, the daily total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange from 2022 - 2026 are shown. The weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026, the monthly average available days of silicon manganese inventory in China, and the monthly export quantity of silicon manganese in China are also provided [8] Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, the report presents the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026, the market mainstream price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, the production cost of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the profit of silicon iron in Ningxia when converted to the main contract on the futures market and the spot profit, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron [6] - For silicon manganese, the report shows the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to Steel Union's data), the profit of Guangxi's silicon manganese when converted to the main contract on the futures market, and the profit of Ningxia's silicon manganese when converted to the futures market from 2022 - 2026 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the inland market has bottomed out, and the port market is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for significant inventory reduction is high MTO operation rate. Currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments, and short - term shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the change in oil prices. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors, and if oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the upper limit of methanol prices [2]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas market in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia is stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion situation and US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so monitor the commissioning of new plants [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production rate is stable. The production of drawn products is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of mid - upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, pay attention to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support the price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the accumulation of static inventory contradictions is slow, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Monitor exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rate [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2145 to 2233, with a daily change of 23 on January 5. The price of South China spot increased from 2120 to 2205, with a daily change of 12 on January 5. Other regional prices also showed certain changes [2]. - **Viewpoint**: The inland market has bottomed out, and the port market is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, MTO profit restricts the upside of methanol. Monitor Venezuelan shipments and oil price changes [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of华东LD increased from 8175 to 8700, with a daily change of 375 on January 5. Other prices also had corresponding changes. The主力期货 price decreased from 6465 to 6449, with a daily change of - 23 on January 5 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is neutral. Pay attention to LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new plant commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 5690 to 5730, with a daily change of 50 on January 5. The主力期货 price decreased from 6292 to 6330, with a daily change of - 18 on January 5 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. Monitor exports and PDH plant maintenance [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4520 to 4530, with a daily change of - 70 on January 5. The基差(高端交割品) increased from - 20 to - 250, with a daily change of 10 on January 5 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Monitor exports, coal prices, etc. [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities' threaded steel and Tianjin, Shanghai, and other places' hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. For instance, the price of Beijing threaded steel decreased from 3160 on December 26, 2025, to 3130 on January 5, 2026, with a change of - 40. The price of Tianjin hot - rolled coil decreased from 3150 on December 26, 2025, to 3150 on January 5, 2026, with a change of - 10 [1] Basis and Spread - No relevant content Output and Inventory - No relevant content

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Report date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes - From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, WTI increased by $0.90 to $58.32, BRENT increased by $0.91 to $61.76, and OMAN decreased by $10.50 to $421.70 [3] - The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.03 to $0.39, and the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by $0.01 to -$3.44 [3] - The domestic gasoline price decreased by $70.00 to $7090, and the domestic gasoline - BRENT spread decreased by $61.00 to $3536 [3] Inventory Data - In the week of December 19, US crude exports decreased by 1.048 million barrels per day to 3.616 million barrels per day [4] - US domestic crude production decreased by 0.018 million barrels to 13.825 million barrels per day [5] - Commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 0.0405 million barrels to 425 million barrels, a 0.1% increase [5] Group 3: News Summary Geopolitical News - The US asked Venezuela's interim leader to stop selling oil to US adversaries, crack down on drug smuggling, and expel personnel from countries hostile to Washington [3] - The US plans to intercept an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil [4] - Netanyahu informed Iran through Putin that Israel has no intention to escalate the situation or attack Iran [4] Industry News - The US Energy Secretary will meet with oil executives to discuss the "revival" of Venezuela's energy industry after Maduro's arrest [4] Group 4: Weekly Views - Before the holiday, crude oil prices fluctuated. On January 2, overseas crude oil closed lower. Over the weekend, the US - Venezuela incident escalated [6] - In the short term, the market faces geopolitical risks. Venezuelan sea - borne imports and exports may be blocked, and the Iran - Israel situation has also intensified [6] - In the short term, if Venezuela enters a political transition period, production may decline, but it won't change the global supply pattern. In the long term, production may increase [6] - The US has asked oil companies to invest in Venezuela, but industry insiders are cautious [6] - OPEC+ decided to maintain the suspension of production increases in the first quarter and did not discuss the Venezuela issue [6] - In the short term, crude oil prices may be affected by logistics disruptions and geopolitical premiums, but the upside is limited. In the long term, Venezuela may be the biggest supply - increase uncertainty in 2026 - 2027 [6]