铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/04 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17125 1963 8.70 三月 17180 2007 11.33 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 55.95 跨期套利跟踪 2025/12/04 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 340 360 360 290 理论价差 546 991 1444 1897 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 55 95 115 130 理论价差 217 339 462 584 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 70 120 135 140 理论价差 220 342 463 584 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 30 0 5 -20 理论价差 211 318 425 532 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 170 370 630 840 锡 5-1 价差 380 理论价差 6437 期现套利跟踪 2025/12/04 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -55 285 理论价 ...

波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间: 2025/12/3 一、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 0.80 ईम्न 65 0.59 PTA 0.71 45 0.40 15 0.68 50ETF 0.30 五年 0.57 PTA 0.26 白街 0.24 PVC | 0.15 天峻 0.16 r 天殿 0.12 300粒指 0.11 下米 0.10 雪 好 0.08 铁,4,6 0.05 50ETF 0.08 台新 0.05 线,46 0.04 L 雄花 PVC 0.01 0.00 棒花 互能 0.00 0 0.2 03 0.1 0.4 05 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 a 0.1 0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0 a 1 免费声明:本文所有内得均不符成改造仪、对文中信息的准确推料免费性不作任何保证;仅供学习交流。技资录像此作出的任何投资决策与产企司无关、授权仪为我 公司所有、未来市面许可。任何比高科个人不得以年同形式相談。提到发布。如引用、行发、规定明出处为水安和货公司、且不得进行有浮聚富的引用、量节科健改。 0.81 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on December 3, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5100 and 5170 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of -30 and 20; the latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5448 and 5410, with daily changes of -18 and -10 and weekly changes of 0 and -14 [2] - For silicon manganese on December 3, 2025, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, and Guizhou 6517 were 5530, 5520, 5550, and 5520 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 10, 0, and 0 and weekly changes of 10, 40, 20, and 20; the latest price of the main contract was 5728, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of 92 [2] Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (capacity ratio 95%), and the capacity utilization rates of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4] - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly production and the procurement prices and quantities of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6] Demand - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the estimated and actual production of Chinese crude steel, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement quantity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand of silicon manganese in China (Steel Union caliber) [4][7] Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory, inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, and the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of the two [5] - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons), and the average available inventory days in China [7] Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including electricity prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the market price of blue charcoal, the production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia (including folding the main contract and spot profit) and the export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy [5] - The cost - related data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the prices of chemical coke, semi - carbonated manganese blocks, and manganese ore, and the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (Steel Union caliber) [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the CESCO copper conference shows that institutions and the industry generally agree on the idea of buying on dips. The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. - For aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum ingot inventories have decreased significantly, and downstream consumption is fair. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - For zinc, the zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For lead, the lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. - For tin, the tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 20, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 309, and the LME inventory increased by 2,375 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 80, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased significantly, and downstream products also showed inventory reduction [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 180, the LME zinc inventory increased by 350, and the LME zinc注销仓单 decreased by 250 [1][2]. - **Market Outlook**: The zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,290 [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 304 hot - rolled coils increased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the lead price decreased, the LME lead inventory decreased by 3,925, and the LME lead注销仓单 decreased by 3,900 [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the tin price increased, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15, and the LME tin注销仓单 remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the basis of 421 silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 170, and the basis of 553 silicon in East China and Tianjin also increased by 170. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 50, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 770 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9].

Report Summary Price Performance - London Gold price is 4214.75, down 24.10 [1] - London Silver price is 57.44, down 0.05 [1] - London Platinum price is 1677.00, up 37.00 [1] - London Palladium price is 1462.00, up 14.00 [1] - WTI Crude price is 58.64, down 0.68 [1] - LME Copper price is 11193.50, down 48.00 [1] - US Dollar Index is 99.32, down 0.09 [1] - Euro to US Dollar is 1.16, unchanged [1] - British Pound to US Dollar is 1.32, unchanged [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 155.87, up 0.39 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 14181.12, down 1.90 [2] - SHFE Silver inventory is 594.63, up 20.93 [2] - Gold ETF holdings are 1048.29, down 1.72 [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver deferred fee payment direction is 1, down 1.00 [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver (second entry) deferred fee payment direction is 2, unchanged [2]

伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下降较难，盘面01给进口无风险套机会，认为01终点仍是高库存，偏向逢高 做15反套。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 塑 料 ...

原油成品油早报 二、库存 ·美国至11月28日当周API原油库存 248万桶，前值-185.9万桶。 ·美国至11月28日当周API汽油库存 313.6万桶，前值53.9万桶。 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/03 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | 58.65 | 63.13 | 64.41 | 0.77 | 0.59 | -4.48 | 0.20 | 188.90 | 16.21 | 232.55 | 34.54 | | 2025/11/27 | - | 63.34 | - | ...

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/3 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1594.81 | 0.00 | -54.61 | 57.81 | -9.99% 高炉开工率 | 87.98 | | -0.60 | -0.63 | -0.62% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1845.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 55.00 | 7.89% 铁水日均产量 | 234.68 | | -1.60 | -1.68 | 0.35% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1770.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 55.00 | -9.46% 盘面05 | 1761 | 18.00 | 2.50 | -149.00 | -10.22% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1810.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 55.00 | -9.27% 盘面09 | 1833.5 | 3 ...

| 乖 永安期货 | | --- | | YONGAN FUTURES | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/03 | 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3897.71 | 4554.33 | 2978.47 | 3071.15 | 7040.30 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.42 | -0.48 | -0.51 | -0.69 | -0.87 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.05 | 11.90 | 32.32 | 27.14 | 18.39 | | 环比变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.40 | 2.69 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | -0.01 ...

纸浆早报 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6200 | -101.50 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 730 | 5410 | -577.04 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 680 | 5425 | -77.59 | 注：上一日汇率 - 7.07 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | | 2025/11/26 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2 ...