Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with an increase in unexpected maintenance, continuous recovery of polyester开工 and relatively healthy inventory, there is still room for load - up. The supply of raw material PX is gradually returning, and the near - term supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue to improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [2][3][7] - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based restart and a slight decline in coal - based开工 lead to an overall increase in load. With a decline in arrivals and stable shipments during the week, port inventory is decreasing. The downstream stocking level is stable, the basis is strongly maintained, and the profit - to - price ratio is basically stable month - on - month. In the future, although the EG开工 has risen to a relatively high level, port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term due to fewer arrivals. The pattern is good and the profit is not low. In the far - month, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation with the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [7] - For polyester staple fiber, the开工 of near - end Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased slightly to 91.9%, the production and sales are basically stable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the开工 of polyester yarn has increased, raw material stocking has increased, and finished product inventory has continued to decrease, but the profit is weak. In the future, as the inventory reduction speed of polyester yarn finished products has accelerated, the stocking demand has emerged. The开工 of staple fiber remains high but has not increased significantly. With the continuation of inventory reduction, attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices [7] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory is stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction, and the price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [7] Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, crude oil rose from 65.8 to 68.8, PTA internal spot goods rose from 4690 to 4850, and PTA processing difference rose from 128 to 175. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot is 2509(+22). The new 1.6 - million - ton line of Sanfangxiang's new device has been put into production [2] - **Market Situation**: With an increase in unexpected near - end TA maintenance, the开工 has decreased significantly. The polyester load has continued to increase, the inventory has decreased month - on - month, the basis has strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee has improved. The domestic PX开工 has increased slightly [2] MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of MEG external disk rose from 523 to 534, the price of MEG internal disk rose from 4458 to 4542, and the coal - based MEG profit rose from 372 to 463. The basis of MEG spot is around 09(+95) [7] - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device has restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device has been under maintenance [7] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber rose from 6555 to 6675, and the short - fiber profit rose from 35 to - 14. The spot price is around 6600, and the market basis is around 10 - 130 [7] - **Market Situation**: The开工 of near - end Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased slightly to 91.9%, the production and sales are basically stable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. The downstream polyester yarn end has seen an increase in开工, an increase in raw material stocking, and a continuous decrease in finished product inventory, but the profit is weak [7] Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot remained at 1790, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14680 to 14470. The weekly change of RU main contract was 85, and the weekly change of NR main contract was 135 [7] - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [7] Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 830, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) rose from 747 to 751, and the price of styrene (CFR China) rose from 890 to 905. The daily change of EPS (East China ordinary material) was 150, and the daily change of styrene domestic profit was 0 [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - PG futures prices fluctuated and strengthened, mainly due to the bottom - up rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs. The basis weakened, and the spreads between different contract months changed. The warehouse receipt registration volume decreased slightly. The external market prices strengthened slightly, and the internal - external price spreads fluctuated. The fundamentals showed that port supply and demand both decreased, and inventory was basically flat. Refinery production increased, but factory inventories decreased due to increased demand. The operating rates of PDH, alkylation, and MTBE changed to different extents, and the production profits of related products also showed different trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed different degrees of change. For example, on August 25, South China LPG was 4545, with a daily increase of 55; East China LPG was 4402, with a daily increase of 4; Shandong LPG was 4540, with a daily increase of 30. The 09 - 10 month spread was - 587 (- 78), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 82 (+ 2). The cheapest deliverable on Monday was East China civil LPG at 4402. FEI, CP, and PP prices rose, and the production profits of FEI and CP for PP production fluctuated [1] Weekly View - PG futures prices fluctuated and strengthened. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4398. The basis weakened to 520 (- 19), the 9 - 10 month spread was - 509 (- 38), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 80 (+ 0). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12887 (- 1). External market prices strengthened slightly, and internal - external price spreads fluctuated. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle East to the Far East decreased. The naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. The production profits of related products such as PDH - made propylene, alkylation oil, etc. changed to different extents. Fundamentally, port supply and demand both decreased, inventory was basically flat, refinery production increased by 1.94%, and factory inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (- 0.67pct), and the alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (- 0.67pct) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on various iron ore products including spot prices, price changes, import profits, and exchange - contract prices. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Data - **Australian Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 776, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of 9; PB powder price is 780, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 10; Mac powder price is 766, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 3; etc. [1] - **Brazilian Iron Ore**: Ba - Hun price is 812, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 3; Ba - Cu IOC6 price is 788, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 26; etc. [1] - **Other Regions' Iron Ore**: Ukrainian fine powder price is 890, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 16; 61% Indian powder price is 741, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 10; etc. [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 989, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 12. [1] Exchange - Contract Data - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 price is 787.0, with a daily change of 17.0 and a weekly change of 15.0; i2605 price is 763.0, with a daily change of 15.5 and a weekly change of 13.0; i2509 price is 806.5, with a daily change of 17.5 and a weekly change of 16.5. [1] - **FE Contracts**: FE01 price is 99.84, with a daily change of - 0.68 and a weekly change of - 1.36; FE05 price is 97.55, with a daily change of - 0.66 and a weekly change of - 1.18; FE09 price is 100.59, with a daily change of - 0.58 and a weekly change of - 1.31. [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center, dated August 26, 2025 [3] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, in corn, prices in Changchun remained 2230, while in other regions like Weifang and Jinzhou, there were fluctuations. The basis changed by 41, trade profit decreased by 20, and import profit decreased by 4. In starch, prices in Heilongjiang remained 2850, while in Weifang it decreased by 50. The basis increased by 17, and processing profit increased by 22 [4] Market Analysis - Short - term: New - season corn is about to be listed, market sentiment is cautious, and port spot prices are weakening, causing the futures price to decline. But due to limited supply increase, there is no expectation of a sharp drop. Starch prices follow raw material price fluctuations, with high production, low downstream demand, and rising inventory, pressuring prices. - Long - term: Corn prices are expected to decline due to increased production and lower costs. Starch prices are bearish due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [5] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming had little change, the basis decreased by 18, and the import profit increased by 33. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 170 [6][24] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices. The uncertainty of Brazil's later - stage production increases. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar. Imported sugar is arriving at ports, and the processing sugar price cut is putting pressure on the futures [7][24] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 80, the price of imported M - grade US cotton increased by 1, the import profit and other data also changed. For cotton yarn, the price of Vietnamese yarn remained stable, the spot price increased by 20, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 59, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 64 [10] Market Analysis - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risk events, the April low can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [10] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and other regions decreased, the basis increased by 10, the price of white - feather broilers remained stable, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.20, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.01 [14] Market Analysis - In July, high temperatures reduced egg - laying rates, and post - plum - rain replenishment drove up egg prices. But due to sufficient stocks in food factories and reduced procurement, the Mid - Autumn Festival demand was weakened. In August, supply was high and demand was low, causing prices to fall. Attention should be paid to the culling of old hens and cold - storage egg release [14] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained 7300.00, the national inventory decreased by 36.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 24.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 47.00. The basis for different contracts also changed [21][22] Market Analysis - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The yield in the western region may increase, while Shandong may have a 20% reduction. The current - season apple consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest apparent inventory in five years and slightly slower de - stocking. The price is stable for now. Attention should be paid to the final yield determination [22] Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and other regions had minor changes, and the basis decreased by 70 [22] Market Analysis - There are policy expectations for a production - capacity turning point in the long - term, but medium - term supply pressure remains. Seasonally, there are factors supporting demand. The spot price rebounded at the weekend. There is an expectation of reduced supply at the end of the month, and consumption may improve with school - opening replenishment. The restart of state reserves is boosting market sentiment. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [22]

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility Index and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is IV minus HV [4] - The implied volatility quantile rankings of some varieties are as follows: 300 Index (0.83), China Securities (0.84), PTA (0.80), 5 - year (0.43), 50ETF (0.39), PVC (0.38), etc. The historical volatility quantile rankings of some varieties are also presented, such as PTA (0.27) [4][5]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2][10][18] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3][11][19] - Report Date: August 26, 2025 [3][11][19] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [14][22] Futures Market Futures Contracts - The BU main contract price was 3,512 on August 25, with a daily increase of 29 and a monthly increase of 51 [4][12][20]. - BU06 was 3,372, up 12 daily and 54 monthly [4][12][20]. - BU09 was 3,545, with an unspecified daily change and a monthly increase of 48 [4][12][20]. - BU12 was 3,432, up 32 daily and 62 monthly [4][12][20]. - BU03 was 3,394, up 32 daily and 72 monthly [4][12][20]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on August 25 was 257,555, an increase of 46,827 from the previous day and 43,392 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The open interest was 411,487, a decrease of 9,629 from the previous day and 24,832 from the previous month [4][12][20]. Futures Inventory - The futures inventory was 30,940, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 700 from the previous month [4][12][20]. Spot Market Market Prices - The Shandong market price was 3,520, up 20 from the previous day and down 100 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The East China market price was 3,720, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The South China market price was 3,480, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The North China market price was 3,650, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The Northeast market price was 3,880, unchanged from the previous day and the previous month [4][12][20]. Price Differences - The price difference between Shandong and East China was -200, up 20 from the previous day and down 90 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The price difference between Shandong and Northeast was -360, up 20 from the previous day and down 100 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The price difference between East China and South China was 240, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 from the previous month [4][12][20]. Basis and Calendar Spread Basis - The Shandong basis was 8, down 9 from the previous day and down 151 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The East China basis was 208, down 29 from the previous day and down 61 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The South China basis was -32, down 29 from the previous day and down 91 from the previous month [4][12][20]. Calendar Spread - The 03 - 06 spread was 22, up 20 from the previous day and 18 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The 06 - 09 spread was -173, down 13 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The 09 - 12 spread was 113, down 7 from the previous day and down 14 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The 12 - 03 spread was 38, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The spread between the first and second contracts was 29, down 6 from the previous day and 7 from the previous month [4][12][20]. Crack Spread and Profit Crack Spread - The asphalt - Brent crack spread data was unavailable after August 15, with a value of -30 on July 25 and 28 on August 15 [4][12][20]. Profit - The asphalt - Marrow profit data was unavailable after August 15, with a value of -96 on July 25 and -42 on August 15 [4][12][20]. - The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit data was unavailable after August 15, with a value of 436 on July 25 and 511 on August 15 [4][12][20]. - The Marrow - type refinery comprehensive profit data was unavailable after August 15, with an unspecified value on July 25 and 754 on August 15 [4][12][20]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China was -126 on August 25, up 3 from the previous day [4][12][20]. - The import profit from Singapore to South China was -1,061 on August 25, up 4 from the previous day and down 26 from the previous month [4][12][20]. Related Prices - Brent crude oil was $67.7 on August 25, up $0.1 from the previous day and $1.1 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The Shandong gasoline market price was 7,618 on August 25, down 51 from the previous day and 121 from the previous month [4][12][20]. - The Shandong diesel market price was 6,476 on August 25, down 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous month [5][13][21]. - The Shandong residue market price was 3,635 on August 25 [5][13][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with a slight rebound in absolute prices on Friday. The peak summer demand season for crude oil has ended, and the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The supply from South America has been realized, and the market is focused on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of the US "punishment" measures against India for purchasing Russian oil. On August 21, India stated that it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the risk of an embargo, but trade frictions still have uncertainties. - On Thursday, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Iran, involving two Chinese companies. This round of sanctions has a potentially significant impact, and subsequently, the Dubai market's monthly spread strengthened. - From a macro perspective, the expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September has increased, and the macro sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have slightly decreased, US commercial inventories have decreased, gasoline inventories have decreased, and diesel inventories have increased. This week, the refining margins in Europe and the US have strengthened, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel have also strengthened. - Currently, refineries are at their peak operating rates. The latest estimate shows that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the monthly spread of crude oil is expected to face pressure. - In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - $70. In the medium term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will decline to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the crack spread price expectation for European diesel in the fourth quarter has been raised. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Iran killed six armed men who intended to attack a key facility in the country. These armed men were equipped with US - made automatic weapons and other equipment, and seven of them were foreign nationals. The seized documents indicated that they had an Israeli background and might have been trained by the Israeli intelligence and special operations agency (Mossad). - In August, there were continuous supply disruptions of 95 - octane gasoline at gas stations in Crimea due to temporary difficulties in transporting light petroleum products across the Kerch Strait. There was also a gasoline shortage in the Russian Far East. In the Trans - Baikal Territory, the sale of 95 - octane gasoline was temporarily restricted because of a delay in the shipment of gasoline from refineries. - According to the British Financial Times, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ruled out the possibility of direct negotiations with the US and accused Washington of trying to force Iran to submit. [3][4] Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day. - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day. - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. - US EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending August 15 were - 2.72 million barrels, compared with an expected - 915,000 barrels and a previous value of - 792,000 barrels. - US EIA refined oil inventories for the week ending August 15 were 2.343 million barrels, compared with an expected 928,000 barrels and a previous value of 714,000 barrels. - From August 15 - 22, the operating rate of major refineries decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel at Chinese refineries both decreased, with gasoline inventories decreasing and diesel inventories increasing. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries also declined month - on - month. [4][5] Price Data - From August 18 - 22, the price of WTI crude oil increased by $0.14, Brent by $0.06, and Dubai by $0.11. The price of SC crude oil increased by 2.70 yuan, and OMAN by $0.05. - The price of domestic gasoline remained unchanged, while the price of domestic diesel increased by 17 yuan. The price of Japanese naphtha CFR increased by 2.05 dollars, and the price of Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $0.6. - Other spreads such as Brent 1 - 2 monthly spread, WTI - BRENT, etc. also had corresponding changes. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products from August 19 to August 25, 2025, including different types of steel in multiple locations such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. For example, the price of Beijing's threaded steel remained at 3240 from August 19 - 21 and dropped to 3220 on August 22. The price of Tianjin's hot - rolled coil decreased from 3390 on August 19 to 3340 on August 22 and then rose to 3400 on August 25, with a change of 60 [1]. Basis and Spread No information provided. Production and Inventory No information provided.

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Report Date: August 26, 2025 [1] Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1505.00, with a daily increase of 52.00, a weekly increase of 101.00, a monthly increase of 174.00, and an annual increase of 7.50% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Pick - up Price is 948.00, with a daily decrease of 14.00, a weekly decrease of 6.00, a monthly decrease of 65.00, and an annual decrease of 19.66% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Mongolian No. 5 is 1380.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 160.00, and an annual decrease of 17.37% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1470.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 20.00, and an annual decrease of 13.53% [2] Inventory - The total inventory is 3473.61, with a weekly increase of 50.04, a monthly decrease of 43.06, and an annual decrease of 2.68% [2] - Coal mine inventory is 275.64, with a weekly increase of 17.97, a monthly decrease of 2.80, and an annual decrease of 14.55% [2] - Port inventory is 255.49, with a weekly decrease of 21.85, a monthly decrease of 66.01, and an annual decrease of 25.59% [2] - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 805.80, with a weekly decrease of 2.86, a monthly increase of 14.70, and an annual increase of 14.08% [2] - Coking coking coal inventory is 976.88, with a weekly decrease of 11.04, a monthly increase of 47.77, and an annual increase of 20.44% [2] Coking Indicators - Coking capacity utilization rate is 74.42, with a weekly increase of 0.08, a monthly increase of 0.97, and an annual increase of 3.16% [2] - Coking coke inventory is 86.17, with no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 0.80, and an annual decrease of 0.75% [2] Futures Data - The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1244.00, with a daily increase of 58.50, a weekly increase of 11.00, a monthly increase of 20.50, and an annual decrease of 7.58% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 1063.00, with a daily increase of 33.50, a weekly increase of 14.50, a monthly decrease of 137.00, and an annual decrease of 19.92% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 1198.50, with a daily increase of 57.00, a weekly increase of 5.00, a monthly decrease of 34.00, and an annual decrease of 11.84% [2] - The 05 basis is 8.53, with a daily decrease of 58.50, a weekly decrease of 11.00, a monthly decrease of 82.57, and an annual decrease of 243.98 [2] - The 09 basis is 189.53, with a daily decrease of 33.50, a weekly decrease of 14.50, a monthly increase of 74.93, and an annual decrease of 0.30 [2] - The 01 basis is 54.03, with a daily decrease of 57.00, a weekly decrease of 5.00, a monthly decrease of 28.07, and an annual decrease of 0.77 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is 181.00, with a daily increase of 25.00, a weekly decrease of 3.50, a monthly increase of 157.50, and an annual increase of 8.78 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is - 135.50, with a daily decrease of 23.50, a weekly increase of 9.50, a monthly decrease of 103.00, and an annual increase of 3.23 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is - 45.50, with a daily decrease of 1.50, a weekly decrease of 6.00, a monthly decrease of 54.50, and an annual decrease of 4.37 [2] Charts - There are multiple charts showing the price trends of different types of coking coal (Liulin Main Coking Coal, Mongolian Port Raw Coal Pick - up Price, etc.), inventory trends (coal mine inventory, port inventory, etc.), and other related data from 2021 to 2025 [3][4][5][6][7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The risk appetite in the market has continued to rise this week. Despite the poor performance of domestic economic and financial data, the stock market sentiment remains high. In the fundamentals, the downstream orders in copper have shown support around 7.8, and the substitution effect of refined and scrap copper has continued to appear. In August, with full - scale supply, a small increase in inventory is expected, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly from January to June due to aluminum ingot imports. August is expected to be a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. Aluminum product exports have improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand has declined, and overseas demand has dropped significantly. An inventory increase is expected in August. In the short - term off - season, attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has not increased smoothly, while imported TC has further increased. In August, the increase in smelting output has been further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas, there may be a shortage of supply in some periods. Domestically, social inventory has fluctuated and increased, while overseas LME inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, a short - position configuration is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in month spreads [5]. - For nickel, pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. Nickel plate inventories at home and abroad remain stable. In the short - term, the fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about anti - involution policy games. With the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in the US, opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chromium iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain stable. Fundamentals are generally weak, and in the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [6]. - Lead prices have fluctuated this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries is tight. The production of recycled lead remains at a low level, and the TC quotation is in a mess. On the demand side, the inventory of battery products is high, and the peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. In August, primary supply is expected to increase, recycled production may decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but the inventory is still expected to remain at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8]. - Tin prices have fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore is at a low level, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Overseas, the resumption of production in Wa State is restricted in the short - term, and African tin ore has unstable short - term output. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and there is an expectation of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the growth rate of photovoltaic demand is expected to decline. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while overseas consumption is strong, and LME inventory is at a low level. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price is low [11]. - For industrial silicon, the resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand balance is in a state of slight inventory reduction. The core of the supply - demand balance lies in the resumption rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures market has fluctuated greatly this week due to the expected start - up of salt lakes and mica mines. In the spot market, the peak season effect is obvious, and the inventory is still high. The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the price has strong downward support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot premium remained unchanged at 150, the scrap - refined copper price difference increased by 401, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 401. The spot import profit decreased by 432.51 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Market risk appetite remains high. Downstream orders have support around 7.8, and the substitution effect of refined and scrap copper is obvious. The waste copper market is disturbed, and if the production of recycled copper rods continues to decline, it may stimulate the consumption of refined copper. In August, a small increase in inventory is expected, but the market may focus on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 3. The SHFE social inventory increased by 54.10, and the exchange inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement later. Aluminum product exports have improved, while photovoltaic and overseas demand have declined. An inventory increase is expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 110, and the social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE futures import profit decreased by 90.69 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices have fluctuated widely. Domestic TC has not increased smoothly, while imported TC has increased. In August, smelting output has increased. Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has resilience, and overseas, there may be a short - term supply shortage. Social inventory has increased, and LME inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to rebound, and long - term short - position configuration is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in month spreads [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged at 57.0, and the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 700. The spot import profit decreased, and the futures import profit decreased by 1465.31 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains high, demand is weak, and the premium is stable. Nickel plate inventories at home and abroad remain stable. In the short - term, the fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is about policy games. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 25 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased. Nickel and chromium iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain stable. Fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the social inventory remained at 6. The LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000, and the futures import profit decreased by 25.37 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices have fluctuated. Supply is tight, and the production of recycled lead is low. Demand is weak, and the battery market is in a non - prosperous peak season. Although there is a peak - season expectation from July to August, terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. In August, primary supply is expected to increase, recycled production may decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but the inventory is still expected to remain high. Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot import profit decreased, and the LME inventory increased. The trading volume increased by 599 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices have fluctuated widely. Supply is restricted by low processing fees and production cuts at home and abroad. Demand has an expectation of a peak season for electronic consumption but a decline in photovoltaic growth. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas consumption is strong. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price is low [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 22, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased to - 345, and the 553 East China basis decreased to 505. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 51,166 to 51,049 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand balance is in a state of slight inventory reduction. The core of the supply - demand balance lies in the resumption rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1400 to 82,500, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1400 to 80,200. The main - contract basis decreased by 1820, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 640 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market has fluctuated greatly due to supply - side disturbances. In the spot market, the peak - season effect is obvious, and the inventory is still high. The core contradiction is long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the price has strong downward support [16].