Group 1: Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending November 27, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 920,194 tons, at the lower end of the estimated range, compared to 2,110,449 tons in the same period in 2024. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 11,867,705 tons, compared to 21,817,878 tons in the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending October 23, U.S. current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 1.4498 million tons, in line with expectations, with exports loaded at 1.3882 million tons. The current - market - year new sales were 1.544 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0 tons [1]. - As of the week ending October 23, U.S. current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 640,000 tons, higher than expected, with exports loaded at 319,700 tons. The current - market - year new sales were 706,800 tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0 tons [1]. Group 2: Brazil's Soybean Production Forecasts - PatriaAgronegocios slightly raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 171.89 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the mid - November estimate and a 1.4% expansion from 2024/25. The sown area is expected to reach 48.58 million hectares, a 0.9% increase from the previous estimate [1]. - StoneX lowered Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 177.2 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from its November estimate, due to reduced output potential in major producing states [1]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 89% of the expected area, behind last year's 91%. The core south - central region completed 99% of the first - season sowing, higher than 97% last year [1]. Group 3: Malaysia's Palm Oil Data - In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield down 2.09% and oil extraction rate up 0.36% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [1]. Group 4: Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 2, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the domestic spot price was 89280, the LME spot price was 11311, and the spot ratio was 7.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.03, with a profit of - 1332.99. The domestic March price was 89320, the LME March price was 11242, and the ratio was 7.93 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22550, the LME spot price was 3334, and the spot ratio was 6.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.43, with a profit of - 5558.00. The domestic March price was 22620, the LME March price was 3066, and the ratio was 5.55 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21730, the LME spot price was 2852, and the spot ratio was 7.61. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.30, with a profit of - 1955.44. The domestic March price was 21900, the LME March price was 2880, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119850, the LME spot price was 14698, and the spot ratio was 8.15. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a profit of - 1597.05 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16975, the LME spot price was 1941, and the spot ratio was 8.75. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.69, with a profit of 117.55. The domestic March price was 17055, the LME March price was 1983, and the ratio was 11.37 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 1810, 1850, 1820, and 1710 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 539, 977, 1423, and 1869 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 205, 235, 250, and 270 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, and 578 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 265, 300, 310, and 320 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 459, and 579 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 20, 0, 25, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1120, 1330, 1510, and 1800 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 330, and the theoretical spread was 6322 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 1725 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 36 and 792 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 165 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 132 and 264 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80 and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 137 and 250 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 2, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.95, 4.08, 5.24, 0.97, 1.28, and 0.75 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.63, 3.89, 5.62, 0.93, 1.45, and 0.65 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with some near - end devices restarting,开工 rising, polyester load slightly increasing, inventory decreasing, and basis strengthening, while PX domestic operation decreasing and overseas devices reducing load, there are opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees. [1] - For MEG, with domestic coal - chemical devices restarting, overseas devices under maintenance, and port inventory stabilizing, there are short - term selling put opportunities, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak. [1] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end operation is stable, with inventory pressure limited in the short term due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long term, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation. [1] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, with national explicit inventory stable and Thai cup - lump price stable, the strategy is to wait and see. [1] Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, PTA spot price increased by 75, polyester margin decreased by 76, and PTA load increased by 0.2. [1] - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarted. [1] - **Market Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, with limited inventory accumulation slope, and there are opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees. [1] MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, MEG outer - market price increased by 1, and coal - made profit increased by 19. [1] - **Device Changes**: Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarted. [1] - **Market Outlook**: The inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and there are short - term selling put opportunities, but the long - term pattern is weak. [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25, and short - fiber profit decreased by 25. [1] - **Device Status**: The near - end device operation is stable, with an operation rate of 97.5%. [1] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long term, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation. [1] Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 90. [1] - **Market Outlook**: With national explicit inventory stable and Thai cup - lump price stable, the strategy is to wait and see. [1] Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, and styrene domestic profit remained at - 138. [4]

Group 1: Coal Price Information - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5500 is 818.0, with a daily change of -3.0, a weekly change of -12.0, a monthly change of 42.0, and an annual change of -7.0 [1] - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5000 is 718.0, with a daily change of -3.0, a weekly change of -17.0, a monthly change of 35.0, and an annual change of -12.0 [1] - The latest price of Guangzhou Port 5500 is 860.0, with a daily change of 0.0, a weekly change of -5.0, a monthly change of 50.0, and an annual change of -40.0 [1] - The latest price of Ordos 5500 is 575.0, with a daily change of -10.0, a weekly change of -20.0, a monthly change of 35.0, and an annual change of -45.0 [1] - The latest price of Datong 5500 is 625.0, with a daily change of -10.0, a weekly change of -20.0, a monthly change of 35.0, and an annual change of -65.0 [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6000 is 732.0, with a daily change of 0.0, a weekly change of 0.0, a monthly change of 50.0, and an annual change of -105.0 [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6200 is 760.0, with a daily change of 0.0, a weekly change of 0.0, a monthly change of 50.0, and an annual change of -105.0 [1] Group 2: Terminal and Inventory Information - The available days for 25 provincial terminals is 24.9, with a daily change of -0.3, a weekly change of 5.0, a monthly change of 4.0, and an annual change of 7.3 [1] - The coal supply for 25 provincial terminals is 553.2, with a daily change of 2.8, a weekly change of -55.4, a monthly change of -86.9, and an annual change of -69.7 [1] - The inventory of northern ports is 2596.0, with a daily change of 53.0, a weekly change of 94.0, a monthly change of 425.0, and an annual change of -123.3 [1] - The number of ships at northern anchorages is 71.0, with a daily change of 2.0, a weekly change of -24.0, a monthly change of -11.0, and an annual change of 20.0 [1] - The inbound volume of northern ports is 162.3, with a daily change of -8.7, a weekly change of -24.4, a monthly change of -11.1, and an annual change of 12.3 [1] - The throughput of northern ports is 163.2, with a daily change of 9.2, a weekly change of -20.6, a monthly change of 5.9, and an annual change of -57.6 [1] - The daily consumption of 25 provincial terminals is 548.5, with a daily change of 7.4, a weekly change of -94.7, a monthly change of -97.5, and an annual change of -105.9 [1] - The inventory of 25 provincial terminals is 13680.9, with a daily change of 19.3, a weekly change of 860.4, a monthly change of 176.4, and an annual change of 2163.4 [1] Group 3: Shipping Index and Freight Information - The CBCFI shipping index is 850.3, with a daily change of -13.8, a weekly change of -152.0, a monthly change of -269.7, and an annual change of -40.6 [1] - The freight from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai (4 - 5 DWT) is 33.9, with a daily change of -0.7, a weekly change of -7.6, a monthly change of -13.6, and an annual change of -1.9 [1] - The freight from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou (5 - 6 DWT) is 49.1, with a daily change of -0.7, a weekly change of -6.3, a monthly change of -10.9, and an annual change of -1.6 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 794 with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 3, with an import profit of -12.47; PB powder is at 797 (daily +4, weekly +3, import profit -19.15); Macfarlane powder is at 787 (daily +6, weekly 0, import profit 11.93); Jinbuba powder is at 750 (daily +4, weekly +3, import profit 10.26); mainstream mixed powder is at 738 (daily +8, weekly +8, import profit 0.53); super special powder is at 690 (daily +7, weekly +17, import profit -7.92); Carajás powder is at 890 (daily +9, weekly +5, import profit -14.24) [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore is at 828 (daily 0, weekly -7, import profit -6.30); Brazilian coarse IOC6 is at 774 (daily +4, weekly +3); Brazilian coarse SSFG is at 779 (daily +4, weekly +3) [1]. - **Other Types**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is at 885 (daily +5, weekly +6); 61% Indian powder is at 739 (daily +4, weekly +3); Karara concentrate powder is at 885 (daily +5, weekly +4); Roy Hill powder is at 784 (daily +4, weekly +3, import profit 16.70); KUMBA powder is at 856 (daily +4, weekly +3); 57% Indian powder is at 625 (daily +7, weekly +17); Atlas powder is at 733 (daily +8, weekly +8) [1]. - **Domestic Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder is at 1013 (daily -1, weekly -1) [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 801.0 (daily +7.0, weekly +10.5), with a monthly spread of -48.5; i2605 is at 777.5 (daily +9.5, weekly +14.0), with a monthly spread of 23.5; i2609 is at 752.5 (daily +9.0, weekly +16.0), with a monthly spread of 25.0 [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is at 102.20 (daily -1.19, weekly +1.45), with a monthly spread of -4.80; FE05 is at 99.56 (daily -1.07, weekly +1.15), with a monthly spread of 2.64; FE09 is at 97.40 (daily -0.99, weekly +0.98), with a monthly spread of 2.16 [1].

玉米：本周，现货市场依旧维持紧张的氛围，农户销售进度加快，但是市场供应依旧短缺，粮源主要被贸易商囤积。短期看，供应保持低位与 下游企业补库需求的双重驱动下，玉米价格仍将保持强劲势头。值得关注的是，贸易商屯粮待涨，一定程度上延缓了售粮压力的集中释放，后 续关注产区粮源供应变化和港库库存的累积状况。中长期来看，本年度玉米市场供需格局仍维持偏紧态势，种植成本仍将对价格形成强支撑， 预计在农户售粮压力逐步释放后，现货价格有望开启新一轮上涨周期。 淀粉：短期看，淀粉报价跟随原料价格波动。新季玉米上市后，深加工采购积极性增加，开机率也逐步上调，不过由于下游补货依旧平缓，造 成产业去库缓慢，在高库存的压制下，淀粉价格依旧承压。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，若淀粉 报价出现大幅回落，届时会刺激下游补货积极性提升，带动价格走强。 | | | | | | | 农产品早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品 ...

Core View - The report provides data on the implied volatility index, historical volatility, and their spreads of financial and commodity options, as well as the quantile rankings of implied volatility and volatility spreads, to reflect the relative levels of implied volatility of different options [3][5] Summary by Related Catalog Implied Volatility Index, Historical Volatility, and Their Spread Chart - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike prices above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract. The larger the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility, the higher the implied volatility relative to historical volatility; the smaller the difference, the lower the implied volatility relative to historical volatility [3] Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking Chart - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is the implied volatility index minus historical volatility [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2512 contract is approaching the delivery logic, with P1 around 1,550 - 1,600 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin positions, expecting a stable - to - rising trend. [3][11] - The EC2602 contract is undervalued. The core of going long is to wait for the signal of cargo capacity explosion. The cargo volume on the European route is strong this year. Considering factors such as the late Chinese New Year, the incomplete start of pre - holiday concentrated shipments, and the positive impact of December price cuts on January price increase implementation, if the peak season is gradually realized, EC2602 may have more upside potential. [3][11] - For the EC2604 contract, a short - selling approach on rallies is still recommended. [3][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1,631.1, with a change of 1.13% and 6.07% (unclear). The basis was 8.3, the trading volume was 1,737, the open interest was 4,501, and the open interest change was - 7/31 - 2,857. [2][10] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1,471.9, the basis was 167.5, the trading volume was 41,467, and the open interest was 40,111. [2][10] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,072.2, with a change of 1.67%. The basis was 567.2, the trading volume was 7,369, the open interest was 18,743, and the open interest change was 42. [2][10] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1,215.2, with a change of 2.11%. The basis was 424.2, the trading volume was 519, and the open interest was 2,254. [2][10] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1,339.0, with a change of 2.15%. The basis was 300.4, the trading volume was 257, the open interest was 1,630, and the open interest change was - 20. [2][10] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1,021.0, with a change of 0.87%. The basis was 618.4, the trading volume was 954, the open interest was 3,975, and the open interest change was 2,715. [2][10] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's spread was 558.9, with a daily change of 0.6 and a weekly change of - 53.8. [2][10] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 159.2, with a daily change of - 66.0 and a weekly change of 14.5. [2][10] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 399.7, with a daily change of 66.6 and a weekly change of - 68.3. [2][10] Spot Market Indicators (European Route) - SCHIS: Updated weekly on Mondays. As of November 24, 2025, it was 1,639.37 points, with a current - period increase of 20.75% and a previous - period decrease of 9.78%. [2][10] - SCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. As of November 28, 2025, it was 1,404 dollars/TEU, with a current - period increase of 2.71% and a previous - period decrease of 3.55%. [2][10] - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. As of November 28, 2025, it was 1,449.34 points, with a current - period increase of 1.14% and a previous - period increase of 2.09%. [2][10] - NCFI: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1,024.64 points, with a current - period increase of 7.671% and a previous - period decrease of 2.83%. [2][10] Recent European Route Spot Situation - The average price in Week 49 was 2,360 dollars, equivalent to 1,650 points on the futures market. The price increase in early December failed. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2,200 dollars, setting the tone. OA was at 2,300 - 2,400 dollars, PA was at 2,100 - 2,200 dollars, with a current central price of 2,270 dollars, equivalent to 1,580 points on the futures market. MSC plans to raise the price of second - half of December cabin positions to 3,500 dollars, and ONE to 2,800 dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin positions in early December. [4][12] Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the second phase of the agreement. [5][13] - On November 29, Hezbollah in Lebanon stated that it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on its senior commander. [5][13]

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/01 SP主力合约收盘价： 5198.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/28 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/26 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5198.00 | 5184.00 | 5208.00 | 5212.00 | 5220.00 | | 折美元价 | 639.16 | 639.16 | 642.20 | 641.47 | 641.40 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.27006% | -0.46083% | -0.07675% | -0.15326% | -0.15302% | | 山东银星基差 | 212 | 241 | 257 | 253 | 270 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 187 | 251 | 227 | 238 | 280 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/01 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/24 | 58.84 | 62.22 | 64.50 | 0.48 | 0.59 | -3.38 | 0.29 | 189.66 | 17.44 | 240.61 | 38.84 | | 2025/11/25 | 57.95 | 62.48 | 64.33 | 0.52 | 0.68 | -4.53 | 0.30 | 185.72 | 15.52 | 235.38 | 36.38 | | 2025/11/26 | 58. ...