原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/26 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/06/19 | - | 78.85 | - | 1.17 | 1.77 | - | 3.51 | - | - | - | - | | 2025/06/20 | 73.84 | 77.01 | 71.20 | 1.17 | 1.53 | -3.17 | 3.72 | 232.95 | 20.83 | 254.18 | 29.75 | | 2025/06/23 | 68.51 | 71.48 | 69.88 | 1 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 618.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 -252.0 25省终端可用天数 23.5 0.1 3.6 2.6 5.9 秦皇岛5000 545.0 2.0 10.0 10.0 -225.0 25省终端供煤 568.5 9.0 -40.1 -71.6 -54.4 广州港5500 710.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 -210.0 北方港库存 2863.0 11.0 -8.0 -278.0 139.2 鄂尔多斯5500 405.0 0.0 10.0 15.0 -255.0 北方锚地船舶 87.0 4.0 16.0 17.0 33.0 大同5500 460.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 -270.0 北方港调入量 138.4 -31.3 -25.9 -1.1 -18.1 榆林6000 562.0 0.0 5.0 -5.0 -318.0 北方港吞吐量 178.3 19.9 18.0 -4.4 15.1 榆林6200 590.0 0.0 5.0 -5.0 -319.0 CBCFI海运指数 718.6 9.1 30.4 18.4 15 ...

农产品早报 | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/26 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/19 | 2240 | 2330 | 2420 | 2450 | -75 | -10 | 400 | 2800 | 2950 | 145 | -72 | | 2025/06/20 | 2240 | 2330 | 2430 | 2460 | -79 | 0 | 410 | 2800 | 2950 | 144 | -72 | | 2025/06/23 | - | 2330 | 2440 | 2460 | -78 | 0 | 418 | 2850 | 2950 | 151 | -70 | | 2025/06/24 | - | 2330 ...

免责声明: | | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/26 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷 现货 | CP预测合 同价 | | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 纸面进口 利润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/06/1 9 | 4670 | 4650 | 4550 | 615 | 607 | - | 603 | 5000 | 7850 | -397 | 128 | | 2025/06/2 0 | 4660 | 4657 | 4630 | 616 | 602 | 82 | 610 | 5040 | 7900 | -410 | 110 | | 2025/06/2 3 | 4695 | 4623 | 4810 | 621 | 606 | 80 | 603 | 5520 ...

jis 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/26 数据来源: Mysteel、Wind 免责 | | | 指标 | 5/26 | 6/18 | 6/23 | 6/24 | 6/25 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11545 | 11740 | 11575 | 11230 | 11225 | -5 | -515 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 52882 | 16777 | 10874 | 10659 | 7623 | -3036 | -9154 | | | ETE | 主力合约成交量 | 175284 | 104964 | 102647 | 110263 | 37814 | -72449 | -67150 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10420 | 12290 | 6630 | 6630 | 6630 | 0 | -5660 | | | | 虚实比 | 25.38 | 6.83 | 8.20 | 8.04 | 5.75 | -2 | ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/06/25 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/06/18 | 3200 | 3120 | 3190 | 3230 | 3160 | 3220 | | 2025/06/19 | 3200 | 3070 | 3180 | 3230 | 3160 | 3190 | | 2025/06/20 | 3200 | 3070 | 3180 | 3230 | 3150 | 3190 | | 2025/06/23 | 3200 | 3070 | 3170 | 3180 | 3150 | 3190 | | 2025/06/24 | 3150 | 3060 | 3150 | 3170 | 3140 | 3180 | | 变化 | -50 | -10 | -20 | -10 | -10 | -10 | | 日期 | 天津热 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical situations. The U.S. announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and Iran declared retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A cease - fire between Israel and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Fundamentally, EIA U.S. commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, global oil inventories were basically flat, and diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The oil futures monthly spread continued to strengthen, approaching the 2022 level. The medium - to - long - term fundamental oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are greatly amplified by geopolitical factors [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From June 18 - 24, 2025, WTI decreased from $75.14 to $64.37, a change of - $4.14; BRENT decreased from $76.70 to $67.14, a change of - $4.34; DUBAI decreased from $70.84 to $69.13, a change of - $0.75. Other related products also showed price changes, such as SC decreasing by 55.90 yuan, and domestic gasoline - BRT increasing by 262.00 yuan [3] 2. Daily News - On June 24, Iranian President Pezeshkian announced that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel ended, and reconstruction work would start. Israel's plot to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and cause social unrest failed, while its important facilities were damaged. Israel's Prime Minister's Office confirmed the attack on an Iranian radar facility and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [3] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 427.7 million barrels, compared with an expected - 18.3 million barrels and a previous value of - 1013.3 million barrels [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 1.075 million barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 0.3 million barrels to 13.431 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 2.65% decrease), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.23 million barrels to 402.3 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.672 million barrels per day to 5.504 million barrels per day. The U.S. four - week average supply of crude oil products was 19.981 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease from the same period last year [4] - In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, the Shandong local refinery operating rate fell, the production of gasoline and diesel increased, the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased, gasoline and diesel were stocked up, the main refinery comprehensive profit rebounded, and the local refinery comprehensive profit improved [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The report mainly offers data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data for stock and bond futures. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: On June 24, 2025, yields varied across major economies. For example, the US was at 4.296%, and Japan at 3.864%. Changes over different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year) also differed. The US had a latest change of - 0.053, a one - year change of 0.074 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields on June 24, 2025, were as follows: the US at 3.900%, and Japan at 0.733%. There were also different changes over various time - periods. The US had a latest change of 0.060 and a one - year change of - 0.850 [3]. - **Dollar to Major Emerging Economy Currency Exchange Rates**: On June 24, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar to the Brazilian real was 5.511 with a 0.26% latest change. Rates and changes varied for other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On June 24, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6092.180 with a 1.11% latest change. Different indices had different performance over various time - frames. The S&P 500 had a one - year change of 12.16% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different types of credit bond indices (US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, etc.) had positive changes over different time - periods. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.42% and a one - year change of 5.35% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: On June 24, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3420.57 with a 1.15% increase. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., also had their respective closing prices and percentage changes [4]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were provided. The CSI 300 had a PE (TTM) of 13.03 with a 0.13环比 change [4]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium values and their环比 changes were given for different indices. The CSI 300 had a risk premium of 3.70 with a 0.00环比 change [4]. - **Fund Flow**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flow were presented for different segments of the A - share market. The A - share market had a latest fund flow value of 491.60 and a 5 - day average of - 240.08 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: Latest trading volume values and环比 changes were provided for different market segments. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a latest trading volume of 14145.82 with a 2919.75环比 change [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage changes were given for futures contracts such as IF, IH, and IC. The IF contract had a basis of - 51.63 and a - 1.32% change [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: On June 24, 2025, the T00 contract closed at 109.025 with a 0.00% change, and the T01 contract closed at 109.045 with a 0.02% change [5]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates such as R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were provided along with their daily changes. R001 was at 1.4380% with a - 12.00 BP daily change [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is in a low - valuation state, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With macroeconomic instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. Overall inventory is neutral. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. The basis is + 100, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under neutral to excessive pressure. If exports continue to boom or PDH device maintenance increases, supply pressure can be alleviated [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150. Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [10]. 3. Summary by Sector Methanol - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 100, South China spot by 133, and Northwest converted - to - futures price by 18. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract basis increased by 30. The MTO profit on the futures market increased by 187 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has started. Iranian production has decreased, but non - Iranian supply has increased, and domestic supply has also risen [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, North China LL decreased by 115, and East China LD decreased by 75. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 194 [6]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Shandong propylene decreased by 90, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 188. The basis increased by 60 [6]. - **Inventory and Supply**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under over - capacity, the 09 contract is under pressure [6]. PVC - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northwest calcium carbide decreased by 25, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 80 [10]. - **Inventory and Supply**: Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing, and the load is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability [10].

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