1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning. In the short - term, the focus on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks will drive it to be volatile and strong. In the long - term, if the interest - rate cut in September is realized, the gold price may challenge a new high of $3500. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a steady upward trend, currently at the end of the trend. The long - term trend depends on the energy transition progress, actual interest - rate cut strength, and the repair momentum of the gold - silver ratio [7][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is sideways, possibly at the start. The Fed's over 90% probability of a September interest - rate cut, a two - week low in the US dollar index, and a decline in US bond yields suppress the cost of holding gold. Geopolitical risks are divided, with trade frictions supporting the safe - haven property of gold. The SPDR Gold ETF has continuously increased its positions (nearly 5 tons weekly), and institutional allocation demand has recovered. The short - term is driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, while the long - term depends on the strength of the interest - rate cut, inflation stickiness, and the central bank's gold - buying persistence. A "cautious interest - rate cut" signal from the Fed's August 22 meeting minutes may trigger a correction. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the gold main contract 2510 was expected to be mainly volatile, and grid trading in the 735 - 838 range was recommended. This week, the same strategy is recommended [11][12]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - There are data charts showing the trends of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, silver was affected by a combination of long and short factors. The core support comes from the Fed's over 70% probability of a September interest - rate cut and geopolitical uncertainties. The main suppression is due to the weak industrial fundamentals, inflation resilience, and limited monetary policy easing space. The long - term trend depends on the energy transition progress, actual interest - rate cut strength, and the repair momentum of the gold - silver ratio. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [33]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the silver contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500. This week, the same expectation and range are recommended [36][37]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - There are data charts showing the trends of Shanghai silver futures, COMEX silver futures, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly futures report on soybean meal and soybean oil from August 18 - 22, 2025 [1][2] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - Soybean meal futures are expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [6] 1.3 Section Summaries 1.3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The current domestic soybean meal inventory is still high, and the supply surplus situation is hard to reverse in the short term. However, there are expectations of tightened supply for new - season US soybeans, high export premiums for Brazilian soybeans, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade [6] - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with a strong bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract was expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2980 - 3200 [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with a strong bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may continue a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3250 [10] 1.3.3 Variety Diagnosis - The main force is strongly bullish, with a multi - empty flow of 87.8. The capital energy is basically stable at - 4.3, but there is a high risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 99.1 [13] 1.3.4 Related Data - Data includes weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][21][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - Soybean oil futures are in a slightly bullish oscillation phase. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [29] 2.3 Section Summaries 2.3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a slightly bullish oscillation phase. In the 32nd week, soybean oil production decreased slightly, but due to hot weather, demand was suppressed, leading to accumulated inventory pressure. However, the USDA report cut US soybean planting area, and high Brazilian soybean premiums and fluctuations in competing oils increased cost support [29] - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [29] 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue a bullish run, with attention to possible short - term oscillations and corrections, and an expected operating range of 8100 - 8500 [32] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with a slightly bearish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may continue a bullish run, and short - term oscillations and corrections should be noted [33] 2.3.3 Variety Diagnosis - The main force is slightly bearish, with a multi - empty flow of - 33.7. The main capital has a small inflow with a capital energy of 28.5, and there is a high risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 98.7 [37] 2.3.4 Related Data - Data includes weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, weekly soybean arrivals, weekly soybean inventory, weekly soybean crushing volume, weekly soybean mill operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian soybean premiums. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [43][46][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season in China and the increase in downstream operating rates, short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the weak cost side, continuous accumulation of social inventory, and the new tariff measures by Trump. It is advisable to wait and see [5][12]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum presents a dual - track pattern of "stable growth in China + overseas supplement". The monthly output in China is expected to increase year - on - year, and the output in overseas countries such as Brazil and South Africa is also expected to have a year - on - year increase of over 30% [10]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week, showing a mild recovery trend. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: large - range oscillation. The logic is that China is about to enter the traditional consumption season with rising downstream operating rates, but the weak cost side, continuous inventory accumulation, and new tariff measures may intensify short - term fluctuations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Aluminum in August may be weak first and then strong. For the next week, the range of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract is seen at 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is advisable for now [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: Due to Trump's new tariff measures, short - term fluctuations may intensify, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - Bauxite market: The domestic bauxite fundamentals are not in surplus. The ore price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, and the price in the southwestern region has an upward trend. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the supply in August is tightening, but due to the high port inventory and the resumption of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage degree may be limited, and the ore price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - Alumina market: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 11255 million tons, the operating capacity was about 9570 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.64%, slightly lower than last week's 85.73%. The capacity utilization rate has been rising since May and is currently at a high level since 2022 [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: The supply shows a dual - track pattern. In China, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the output in countries like Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by over 30% year - on - year [10]. - Import and export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. The export volume of aluminum products has declined since June but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Trump's new 50% tariff on aluminum products may lead to a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the year [10]. - Demand: - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week. The construction profile sector remains sluggish, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. - Aluminum strips and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 65.0%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%. The operating rate of aluminum strips is expected to continue to recover in mid - and late August, and the operating rate of aluminum foil is expected to rise after September [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 62.6%. The operating rate will gradually rise in mid - and late August, and the industry is expected to get out of the off - season [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 56.6%, and is expected to continue to rise to about 57% in the third week of August, but the upward space is limited. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 53.0%, and short - term pressure is expected to continue [11]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic aluminum ingots: The social inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 28% from the same period last year. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in China due to the tariff increase by the US [11]. - Aluminum rods: The inventory is 135,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from last week and an increase of about 15% from the same period last year. The demand may still weaken [11]. - LME electrolytic aluminum inventory: It has been increasing slightly since July. Due to overseas resumption of production and weak manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - Profit: - Alumina: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The average production cost in China is about 17600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3000 yuan/ton, also the same as last week, at a relatively high level [12]. - Market expectation: It will maintain a high - level repeated pattern, focusing on weak supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and capital withdrawal pressure. Short - term is inclined to short on rallies, and long - term requires patience for the peak season [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices are generally stable, with no significant changes in the fundamental pattern. The price of thermal coal has been rising since July. The price of alumina has slightly declined, with high production, oversupply, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are in a narrow - range consolidation, waiting for further macro - level guidance. The alloy price has increased slightly, but the price of scrap aluminum is suppressed due to some enterprises' reduction or suspension of production [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Domestic port bauxite inventory has a slight decline. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The aluminum rod inventory has decreased, and the demand may weaken. Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase, possibly due to weak overseas demand and the new position limit rule [18]. Supply and Demand Situation - Profit: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 400 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [20]. - Operating rate: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is relatively neutral, with low expectations for price increases in the second half of this year and a cooling of expectations for the first half of 2026 [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1640 yuan/ton, compared with - 1560 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has slightly rebounded, mainly boosted by the expected Fed rate cut in September. However, due to the continuous decline in manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the market is more divided, and the market may fluctuate widely in the near future [37]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has continued to increase steadily. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has been declining since August, while some institutional positions have increased net long positions. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has been continuously reduced since mid - July and is now slightly net long. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The soybean meal and soybean oil futures are both in a wide - range oscillation stage. For soybean meal, the high inventory and good US weather suppress price increases, while the expected shortage of fourth - quarter supply and rising Brazilian soybean premiums support the price. For soybean oil, high domestic soybean arrivals and high - level oil mill operations lead to inventory accumulation, but uncertainties in biodiesel policy and Sino - US relations cause concerns about future supply [7][27] Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. - Trend logic: In the 31st week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2539 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.36%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons (0.14%) from the previous week. Good weather in the US main production areas strengthens the expectation of a bumper harvest, and sufficient domestic soybean arrivals and high - level oil mill operations result in high inventory, suppressing price increases. However, there is an expected shortage of fourth - quarter soybean supply, and the continuous strengthening of Brazilian soybean premium quotes pushes up import costs. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, and the funds were relatively bearish. The M2509 was expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 3150 in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, and the funds are strongly bullish. The M2601 is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2980 - 3200 [10][11] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, and weekly inventory days [19][21][22] Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. - Trend logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 31st week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 428,200 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1174 million tons, an increase of 293,000 tons from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals and high - level oil mill operations lead to high - level crushing volume, but the weak terminal consumption causes continuous inventory accumulation. Uncertainties in biodiesel policy and Sino - US relations cause concerns about future supply. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [27] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, and the funds were strongly bullish. The Y2509 was expected to run strongly in the short term, with an expected operating range of 8000 - 8400. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, and the funds are relatively bullish. The Y2601 is expected to continue to run strongly, but attention should be paid to possible short - term oscillatory corrections, with an expected operating range of 8100 - 8500 [30][31] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][43][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The soda ash and glass futures markets are currently in a volatile phase. For soda ash, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to factors such as high inventory, oversupply, and weak demand, despite cost support from rising raw material prices. For glass, the market will continue its weak oscillation because of the mismatch between weak reality and policy expectations, with supply - demand contradictions intensifying [6][27]. - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][10][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was weak with minor price fluctuations. The mainstream prices were 1060 - 1510 yuan/ton for light soda ash and 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton for heavy soda ash. Supply initially tightened due to enterprise maintenance but later recovered, while demand remained weak. With the weakening of macro - level benefits, market sentiment turned cautious and bearish. High inventory and oversupply will keep the market in a narrow - range oscillation. A wait - and - see approach is suggested [6]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. Prices of light and heavy soda ash increased. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly, with active purchasing by spot - futures traders and downstream demand being the main driver. Most enterprises had full orders and some stopped accepting new ones. Policy supported prices, but limited by over - capacity, the upside was restricted. The futures were oscillating at a high level. It was expected that soda ash 2509 would trade between 1200 - 1350, and a wait - and - see approach was recommended [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market was weak last week with small price changes. Supply tightened first due to maintenance and then recovered, while demand was weak. Market sentiment turned cautious and bearish, and high inventory and oversupply pressured prices. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and soda ash 2601 will trade between 1250 - 1400. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10]. 3.3 Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly production, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventories, daily basis, and weekly production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China. The multi - short flow is - 34.2 (slightly bearish for the main force), the capital energy is 62.9 (significant capital inflow), and the multi - short divergence is 89.2 (high risk of a market turnaround) [11][14][20]. Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Overall, the glass market is in an oscillating trend. Last week, the price of 5mm float glass in China generally declined, with the largest drop of about 70 yuan/ton in North China and 30 - 40 yuan/ton in other regions (except for the stable price in the Northwest). Demand was weak, and downstream enterprises focused on inventory clearance. Supply increased due to复产, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Affected by the gap between weak reality and policy expectations, the market lacked confidence and will continue its weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [27]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating strongly last week, but the increase was mainly driven by policy benefits with weakening momentum later. Some regions saw price corrections or reduced purchasing. The market was mainly driven by downstream rigid - demand restocking, with insufficient supply - demand support. The glass futures fluctuated greatly with a weak performance on the board. It was expected that glass 2509 would trade between 950 - 1150, and an empty - position wait - and - see approach was recommended [30]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price of 5mm float glass in China generally declined last week. Demand was weak, and downstream enterprises cleared inventory. Supply increased due to复产, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Affected by the gap between reality and policy expectations, the market lacked confidence and will continue its weak oscillation. It is expected that glass 2509 will trade between 950 - 1150, and an empty - position wait - and - see approach is recommended [31]. 3.3 Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, weekly production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory. The multi - short flow is - 88.9 (strongly bearish for the main force), the capital energy is 26.0 (slight capital inflow by the main force), and the multi - short divergence is 96.5 (high risk of a market turnaround) [33][38][46].

Report Overview - Report Name: Futures Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore [2] - Report Date: August 11 - 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rebar futures and iron ore futures are both in a consolidation phase, and investors should wait for the next clear trend [7][31] Summary by Section Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures has entered a consolidation range [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly production is 2.21 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.11 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.68 million tons, and social inventory is 5.89 million tons. The daily - level price is in a downward channel, and the capital side is slightly bearish [7] - Mid - term strategy: Wait for the consolidation phase to complete [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered a consolidation range [10] - This week's strategy: Wait patiently for the next mid - term trend [10] - Hedging advice for spot enterprises: Wait for the consolidation phase to complete [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading advisory department of Great Wall Futures [15] Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures has entered a consolidation phase [31] - Trend judgment logic: Global shipments last week were 30.61 million tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 25.07 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 90.12 million tons, and domestic major ports' inventory was 136.57 million tons. The daily - level price is in a sideways phase, and the main capital shows a relatively obvious bullish attitude [31] - Mid - term strategy: Wait for the next clear trend during the consolidation phase [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of iron ore futures entered a consolidation range [34] - This week's strategy: Wait for the next clear trend during the consolidation phase [34] 3. Relevant Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading advisory department of Great Wall Futures [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 7,700 - 10,000 yuan. It's recommended to consider grid trading within the range [6][7][10]. - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 63,000 - 80,000 yuan. It's recommended to buy a small amount when the price retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range [32][33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Industrial silicon futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon decreased slightly. As of August 8, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,900 yuan/ton, 10,000 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,100 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price is in a downward channel, and the long - position camp of the main force has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 7,700 - 10,000 yuan [6][7]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate showed mixed trends. As of August 8, the mainstream price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,950 yuan/ton. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a sideways phase, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 63,000 - 80,000 yuan [32][33]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Buy a small amount when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range. - This week's strategy: Buy a small amount when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range [36][37]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [40][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations. In the short term, the aluminum price is under pressure due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season, but it may turn stronger after a weak start in August. There is a possibility of the price breaking through the 21,000 mark with the support of potential positive factors in late August [5][12]. - For the medium - term, one can consider mid - line long - position layout below 20,000 yuan [5]. - In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Although the price is expected to be relatively strong, a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory [8][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The short - term lack of new stimulus policies, a decline in investors' risk appetite, and the withdrawal of funds from the industrial products sector have narrowed the volatility of the aluminum price. With inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season, the price is under pressure in the short term. However, as August is the transition period between the off - season and peak season, combined with the decline of the US manufacturing index and the expectation of interest rate cuts, as well as domestic support policies, the price may turn stronger after a weak start in August [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider mid - line long - position layout below 20,000 yuan [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The price in August may be weak first and then strong. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to trade in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price in late August is still expected to be strong, but a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual inventory in futures at low prices [9]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The domestic bauxite market is not in surplus. The bauxite price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, while that in the south - western region may rise. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the bauxite supply in August may tighten, but due to the significant increase in previous imports and high port inventories, as well as the resumption of production of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage of bauxite may be limited, and the price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 95.8 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.73% (85.58% last week), reaching the highest level since 2022 [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.45 million tons, the operating capacity is about 44.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 97%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum supply shows a dual - track pattern of "stable domestic growth + overseas supplement". Domestically, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the electrolytic aluminum output in countries such as Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by more than 30% year - on - year [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,400 yuan/ton. Since June, the export volume of aluminum products has declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Considering the suspension of Sino - US tariff confrontation, the export resilience will remain in the second half of the year, but the growth rate is expected to slow down compared with the first half [10]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. The operating rate and order volume of construction profiles are low, the off - season atmosphere in the automotive profile industry remains, the new orders for photovoltaic profiles are insufficient, and the processing fees are too low, resulting in low order - taking willingness of enterprises. The orders of photovoltaic frame enterprises are relatively saturated. In the short term, it is expected to operate stably [11]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 64.0% this week. The industry generally has low expectations for the consumption boost from terminal peak - season stocking in August, and the inertia of enterprise production cuts is difficult to change. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 68.4%. The orders for air - conditioning foils have decreased by 5 - 10% year - on - year due to the large - scale summer equipment maintenance plan of air - conditioning terminals. With the mixed news of the cancellation of purchase tax incentives for new energy vehicles in 2026, the aluminum foil industry is expected to further shrink, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend [11]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises remained stable at 61.8%. Although the industry is showing signs of emerging from the off - season, the characteristics of the traditional peak season have not fully emerged. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 55.6%, continuing the recovery trend since July. However, under the triple pressures of the unresolved Sino - US tariff issue, high aluminum prices, and negative feedback, the weak and stable pattern of the industry is difficult to break. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.1%. The terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and the off - season atmosphere dominates the market. In the short term, the operating rate of sample enterprises is expected to remain stable, but the industry as a whole will continue to decline [11]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 566,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 32% from the same period last year. Since June, the outbound volume of aluminum ingots has continued to decline and is at a low level in the past two years, but it has stabilized since August. The inventory may decrease in late August due to the potential early arrival of the traditional peak season. The inventory of aluminum rods is 138,200 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and an increase of about 17% from the same period last year. In the short term, the off - season theme of downstream industries remains unchanged. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July after a continuous slight decline since May 2024. Considering the overseas resumption of production and the decline of manufacturing data in Europe and the United States, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,000 yuan/ton (2,800 yuan/ton last week), at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: Before entering the consumption peak season, downstream enterprises mainly make rigid purchases. Without significant positive news, the spot is expected to trade at a discount, and the futures price will fluctuate at a high level. In late August, attention should be paid to potential positive factors such as policies (steady - growth plans), the peak season ("Golden September and Silver October"), and the Fed's interest rate cuts, with the possibility of breaking through the 21,000 mark [12]. - **Personal View**: The price is still expected to be strong, but a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan [12]. - **Key Concerns**: The progress of domestic steady - growth policies and whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season arrives early [12]. - **Direction**: Large - range oscillations [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The bauxite price is rising slightly and is expected to oscillate in the range of 70 - 75 US dollars/ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and the domestic supply is expected to tighten marginally before September, but there may be fluctuations in the short term. The alumina price rose and then fell again this week. With the increase in operating capacity, the alumina market is in surplus, and the previous speculation based on anti - involution has subsided [13]. - The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly after reaching a high point. The holders of goods are trying to support the price, but the supply is loosening. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid purchases, and the market is mainly focused on selling rather than replenishing at high prices. The recycled aluminum market still faces the problem of tight scrap aluminum supply, with obvious cost support, but the weak consumption and high social inventory restrict the price increase space. Attention should be paid to whether the demand expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is fulfilled in mid - to late August [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging. In the second half of the year, the domestic alumina market is in overall surplus, but there are regional structural shortages, and the inventory accumulation pressure is greater than the reduction pressure [17]. - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas is 566,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 32% from the same period last year, mainly due to the off - season demand and high prices, which have slowed down the outbound rhythm. However, the inventory is still at a relatively low level compared with the historical average and is difficult to change in the short term. The inventory of aluminum rods is 138,200 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and an increase of about 17% from the same period last year. In the short term, the off - season theme of downstream industries remains unchanged [17]. - Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory continued to accumulate, mainly due to weak overseas demand. In addition, since June 20, the LME has implemented a new position limit rule for near - month contracts, which may have forced some hidden inventories to become visible [17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. The production arrangement of primary aluminum alloy enterprises is still cautious under the weak and stable pattern. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased slightly, but the operating rate in August may remain at a low level. The operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable and is expected to rise slightly in mid - August. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly, with obvious off - season characteristics. The operating rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly, and that of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable [22]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is relatively neutral but weaker than last month. The market has low expectations for the price increase in the second half of the year but is more optimistic about the first half of 2026 [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,560 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,480 yuan/ton last week [34]. - The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position of overseas funds decreased slightly. After 11 consecutive weeks of net long - position increase, both the long and short sides increased their positions slightly, indicating increasing market divergence. The market is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the near future [37]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main force increased slightly and steadily this week, with both the long and short sides increasing their positions slightly. The net long position of funds mainly from financial speculation has been decreasing since August, while the funds mainly from mid - and downstream enterprises have been continuously reducing their net short positions since mid - July and are now in a balanced state. Based on the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [40].

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report - Report Period: August 11 - 15, 2025 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning. Last week, the gold price showed a volatile and upward - biased trend due to multiple factors. In the short - term, it is range - bound, affected by the US dollar index and geopolitical risks. If the Fed starts a rate - cut cycle in September, the gold price is expected to rise further. Geopolitical risks can also push up the price. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a steady upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the silver price trended upward in a volatile manner. In the long - term, it benefits from global loose monetary policies and the de - dollarization trend, but the weak industrial demand during the rate - cut cycle may suppress the price. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver has the potential for a supplementary increase. It is also recommended to wait and see [31]. 3. Summary by Section Gold Futures 3.1. Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is sideways, possibly at the start. Last week, the price was driven by weak non - farm payrolls strengthening rate - cut expectations, a falling US dollar, geopolitical risks, and increased capital positions, showing a volatile and upward - biased trend. Short - term is range - bound, affected by the US dollar index and geopolitical risks. If the Fed cuts rates in September, the price may rise further, and geopolitical risks can push it up [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in a volatile operation, and grid trading was recommended in the 735 - 838 range [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold main contract 2510 is still expected to be mainly in a volatile operation, and grid trading is recommended in the 735 - 838 range [12]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [19][21][23]. Silver Futures 3.1. Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the price trended upward in a volatile manner. In the long - term, it benefits from global loose monetary policies and de - dollarization, but weak industrial demand during the rate - cut cycle may suppress the price. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver has the potential for a supplementary increase [31]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500 [35]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2510 is still expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500 [36]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [41][43][45].

2025.08.04-08.08 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈现震荡偏强走势，先跌后涨。主要驱动因素包括：美元 指数上涨施压金价，但实际收益率下降和地缘政治风险（巴以冲突升级 担忧）提供支撑，推动反弹。美联储政策预期受经济数据疲软（如耐用 品订单下滑）影响，鹰派立场承压但通胀担忧利好。全球央行购金行为 和中长期避险需求增强支撑。成交量和持仓量在8月1日上升，显示市场 活跃度提高。整体受美元、美债、地缘及政策多因素博弈主导。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行，建议：750－800区间进行网格 交易。 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：735－838区间进行 网格交易。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 本报告数据来源为Wind、 ...