金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美联储当红理事沃勒：就业市场若严重下滑，可能令美联储更多、更快降息。 中国外交部：中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。央视网： 特朗普考虑对华关税分级方案。虽然短期基本面表现尚可，难以构成政策加 码的必要条件，但考虑到出口链产销环比走弱带来的压力，政策仍有提前发 力的充分条件。传市场卖出限制部分解禁，而月底会议或有利好指引。股指 或震荡运行。 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-04-25 公司资质 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 考虑到超预期政策可能出台后对债市的冲击，尽管特别国债发行情况较好， 但机构对长债和超长债减持力度反而有所加强。4 月份 5000 亿元 MLF 净投 放，体现了在政府债加速发行的背景下货币政策保持呵护的基调。不过资金 利率如不能显著下台阶，总量的持续充裕并不能带动曲线的有效下移。短期 内尚未看到较强的趋势行情信号。目前持有债券最重要还是平衡好利率下行 预期与现实的低 carry 甚至负 carry 的关系。 ◆ 策略建议： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 4 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 观望 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： 看涨期权空头持有。 | | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 剧烈震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 区间波动 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 逢低做多 | | ◆豆粕： ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 23 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 1.22%至 77890 元/吨。特 朗普政府关税立场的调整对于铜价不利影响有所减弱，而在美国 232 条 款铜关税调查中，力拓、托克集团等美国铜行业的主要参与者呼吁限制 铜矿石和废铜的出口，而不是对进口征收关税，以此推动国内铜生产。 美国是中国最大废铜供应国（年出口约 60 万吨），这一举措若实施将再 次冲击全球贸易格局，推高全球铜价。基本面上，铜精矿 TC 跌破-30 美 元/吨，创近年新低，但受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然维持高位， 3 月精炼铜产量为 124.8 万吨，同比增加 8.6%，4 月电解铜产量同比预 计仍有增长，显示产出的韧性。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库 并未受到明显影响。3 月需求旺季，带动了铜材产量如期增长。3 月中国 铜材产量达 212.5 万吨，创近几年同期新高。下周面临假期备货需求， 预期去库趋势仍然延续。基本面整体偏强，而宏观面上废铜出口可能受 限、鲍威尔鹰派表态否认政策托底以及关税影响等因素交织，中美博弈 背景下铜价或将继续激烈变动。下周沪铜维持偏强震荡，建议区间谨慎 交易。 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 4 月 23 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 5006 元/吨（+71），常州市场价 4780 元/吨（0），主力基差-226 元/吨（-71），广州市场价 4850 元/吨（+5）， 杭州市场价 4830 元/吨（0）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2450 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。目前海外局势 动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强，PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱 势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口 和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、 经济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 23 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2496 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to move sideways, while treasury bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Temporarily hold off on trading rebar; iron ore is expected to be weak; coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7] - Non - ferrous Metals: Trade copper cautiously within a range; hold off on trading aluminum; consider shorting nickel at high prices; trade tin and silver within a range; buy gold on dips after a full correction [1][11] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to move sideways; hold short positions in soda ash call options [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply; apples are expected to strengthen; PTA is expected to be weak [1][32] - Agricultural Livestock: Pigs are expected to trade within a range; eggs are expected to be weak; go long on corn on dips; soybean meal is expected to be strong; oils and fats are expected to move sideways [1][35] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex, with factors such as Trump's tariff policies, PMI data, and central bank policies affecting the market. Different industries and commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [5][7][11] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Although the short - term fundamentals are okay, considering the pressure from the weakening export chain, the index futures may move sideways [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the market adjustment, and considering the improvement of the capital situation, the risk of further weakening of the bond market is not high, and treasury bonds may rise slightly [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price has rebounded, but the policy is expected to be uncertain, and the demand may decline seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Iron Ore**: Although there are some supporting factors, the negative feedback from the finished product end and the expected increase in overseas supply may lead to a weak trend [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are in a state of game, and they are expected to move sideways in the short term, with attention paid to relevant factors such as terminal demand and profit repair [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The fundamentals are strong, but the macro - factors are complex. It is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [11] - **Aluminum**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Nickel**: Although there are some positive factors, the overall supply is still excessive. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [14][15] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may recover. It is recommended to trade within a range [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as market recession expectations and central bank policies, they are expected to move sideways. It is recommended to trade within a range or buy gold on dips [17] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is expected to move sideways, with attention paid to policy and export factors [19] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. It is expected to move sideways, with attention paid to inventory and demand factors [21] - **Rubber**: The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected to move sideways, with attention paid to weather and demand factors [22] - **Urea**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to support the price. It is expected to move sideways within a range [25] - **Methanol**: The supply is high, and the demand is stable. It is expected to move sideways within a range [27] - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways at a low level [29] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [30] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by Trump's tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see [32] - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the price is expected to strengthen, but attention should be paid to macro risks [33] - **PTA**: Although the supply - demand is good, the cost decline and weak terminal demand may lead to a weak trend [33][34] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to trade within a range [35][37] - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short at high prices [38][39] - **Corn**: The short - term price is supported, and the long - term price may rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is tight, and the long - term price is expected to be strong. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [41][42] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term is in a high - level shock, and the long - term may first decline and then rise. Be cautious when chasing up [42][48]

市场对贸易战反转交易又开始产生预期，债券收益率也出现调整。调整幅度 看，各期限均调整 1BP 左右，长端调整略多。不过从美方的完整发言看，并 没有展示强烈的主动谈判和妥协意愿，双方真正的接触可能还需要等待一段 时间和一些契机。目前距离交易贸易战反转主线还为时尚早。经过周三的调 整后，部分期限距离填补 7 日的利率跳空缺口更进一步。而且考虑到资金面 的逐步好转，债市进一步走弱的风险并不高。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨；制 造业 PMI 不降反升好于预期。关税冲击服务业，欧元区 4 月综合 PMI 几乎零 增长，德法均陷入萎缩。特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部： 打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开，若美方真想谈，就该停止威胁讹诈。虽然短 期基本面表现尚可，难以构成政策加码的必要条件，但考虑到出口链产销环 比走弱带来的压力，政策仍有提前发力的充分条件，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 研究咨询部 2025-04-24 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 ...

国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。特朗普松口，欲将对中国减税，说一个月 内达成协议，短期有震动变化，继续观望。到了下半年，我们要面对几 个变数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种 植棉花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%， 新年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨， 2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比较大。显然目前美国贸 易战选择了先打，将会造成一波伤害，之后是否有握手言和的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with each product facing different market conditions. For example, in the short term, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as holidays, production, and consumption, showing a trend of high - level volatility; in the long term, factors such as production capacity changes, weather, and policy will have an impact on prices [1][2][5][6]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Current Situation**: On April 24, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14.4 - 15.1 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.6 - 15.3 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg. The price in the morning was stable with a slight downward trend. The supply in April continued to increase, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs continued to narrow. The demand was limited by the high price and off - peak consumption season [1]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased slowly, and the production performance improved. From April to September 2025, the supply showed an increasing trend. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year. The supply pressure in the second quarter was still high, and the pig price was at risk of decline under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Starting from December 2024, the pig production capacity was reduced, but the reduction range was limited [1]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of increased and postponed supply, the pig price rebound was under pressure, but the decline of the futures price was also limited due to the early realization of weak expectations. For the 07 contract, the pressure level was 13800 - 14000, and the support level was 13300 - 13400; for the 09 contract, the pressure level was 14600 - 14800, and the support level was 13800 - 14000. It was advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options for the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. Egg - **Current Situation**: On April 24, the price of eggs in Shandong Dezhou was 3.3 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.7 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. The approaching May Day holiday increased the terminal consumption expectation and supported the egg price, but the supply was relatively sufficient due to the large number of laying hens starting to lay eggs and the slow elimination of production capacity [2]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: High breeding profits drove high enthusiasm for replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025, resulting in an increase in the number of newly - opened laying hens in the second quarter. The supply was expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year, but the impact of the elimination of old hens on the phased supply needed to be noted [2]. - **Strategy**: The 06 contract was slightly at a discount to the spot price, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The 08 and 09 contracts were bearish in the long - term logic, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and the elimination of hens [2]. Oil - **Current Situation**: On April 23, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 0.98% to 48.47 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.71% to 4035 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price changed by 20 - 100 yuan/ton to 8890 - 9270 yuan/ton, the soybean oil price rose 50 - 60 yuan/ton to 8090 - 8390 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil price rose 10 yuan/ton to 9420 - 9780 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian inventory started to rise in March, and the production continued to increase in April. Although the export was strong, the market was still trading the future production increase expectation. In the short term, the 07 contract of Malaysian palm oil was expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, the price was likely to decline from May to July [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The South American soybean supply pressure was huge in the second quarter, but factors such as Sino - US negotiations, the improvement of US biodiesel demand, and the decrease in the sowing area of new - season US soybeans were in a game. The 07 contract of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate around 1050 in the short term. The domestic soybean oil supply pressure was huge in the second quarter, and the price was likely to fall first and then rise from July to September [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed market was in a high - level shock. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level, and the short - term supply pressure was still large. After the opening of Australian rapeseed imports, the shortage of long - term rapeseed supply was expected to be partially alleviated, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, it was advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term. For the spread trading, it was advisable to expand the spread of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil [8]. Soybean Meal - **Current Situation**: On April 23, the US soybean 07 contract rose 4.25 cents to 1050.25 cents/bushel. The domestic spot basis strengthened significantly, and the 05 contract price also rose. The short - term price was expected to remain strong due to the low inventory, but there was a risk of a high - level decline as the soybean arrival increased at the end of April [8]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: Tariff policies led to an increase in the cost of importing US soybeans and a decrease in the supply. The domestic market would transfer more positions to South America, which was expected to drive up the prices of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the long term. The sowing area of US soybeans was expected to decrease, and the domestic soybean meal price was expected to be strong in the long term [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, it was advisable to be short at high prices in the short term, paying attention to the 3150 pressure level, and be long at low prices in the long term, paying attention to the 2900 support level. For the spread trading, it was advisable to do long - short spreads for the 5 - 9, 7 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [8]. Corn - **Current Situation**: On April 23, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2210 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2250 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose 10 yuan/ton to 2366 yuan/ton. The supply and demand game in the market intensified, but the market was still optimistic about the future price [9]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: The new - season corn production was expected to decrease, and the import continued to decrease, which provided an upward driving force for the price. However, the reduction in production might be less than expected, and the price increase space was limited due to factors such as the decrease in planting costs and the supply of substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend was expected to be stable and slightly strong. It was advisable to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the 2280 support level of the 07 contract [9].

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业团队 2025/4/24 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 张佩云 咨询电话：027-65777100 从业编号：F03090752 投资咨询编号：Z0019837 周三，螺纹钢期货价格反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3210 元/吨，较前一日上 涨 50 元/吨，05 合约基差 151（-3）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日，特朗普 表示，将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，市场预期好转；产业层面， 根据钢谷、兰格钢铁与找钢网统计口径，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需仍 处于年内高位，去库速度较快。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌 至电炉谷电成本附近，仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平； 驱动方面，政策端，预计中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大 规模刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求 季节性下滑，预期偏弱，预计反弹空间有限。策略上，暂时观望为宜。(数 据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，铁矿期货价格小幅上涨。特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸 易紧张情绪有所缓和。 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格再度下跌，杭州中天螺纹钢 3160 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 30 元/吨，05 合约基差 154（+3）。宏观层面，印度自 4 月 21 日开始，将对某些钢铁进口实施 12%的临时关税，以遏制进口激增，越 南工贸部已接到请求，希望扩大反倾销案件的范围，国内一季度经济数 据发布，整体偏好，GDP 同比增长 5.4%，短期可能不会出台大规模刺 激政策；产业层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需大幅增加，去库速度加 快，不过市场担忧需求见顶，通常而言，五月份钢材需求会季节性下滑， 旺季窗口期已经不长。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉 谷电成本附近，仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方 面，政策端，预计中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模刺 激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性 下滑，市场预期偏弱，预计价格震荡偏弱运行。策略上，暂时观望为宜。 (数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，铁矿期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 767 元/湿吨（- 2）。普氏 62%指数 99.3 ...