Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the black industry is to maintain a volatile pattern, with trading mainly within a range [1]. - For rebar, the investment strategy is short - term trading [4][6]. - For coking coal and coke (double - coking), the strategy is neutral and wait - and - see [28]. - For iron ore, the investment strategy is to expect a volatile and upward - trending market [70]. Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern. Although the raw material prices of coking coal and coke have risen, they have not driven up steel prices. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, but the inventory accumulation speed has slightly accelerated. The static valuation of rebar futures is neutral, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and industrial - end implementation [6]. - The coking coal market has supply - side disturbances and cautious demand - side sentiment, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The coke market has a game between steel and coking enterprises, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the marginal improvement space is limited [31]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and upward - trending. Although there are expectations of a decline in molten iron demand, considering potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in molten iron will not be significant, which is beneficial for iron ore [71]. Summary by Directory Rebar Main Points - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of coking coal futures rose significantly, but rebar prices fluctuated narrowly. The latest rebar apparent demand increased by 7.38 tons week - on - week, production increased by 10.12 tons, and inventory increased by 10.39 tons. The supply - demand contradiction in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - demand relationship remains relatively balanced, but the inventory accumulation speed has slightly accelerated [6]. - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price was lower than the EAF flat - rate electricity cost and higher than the EAF off - peak electricity cost, with a neutral static valuation [24]. - **Driving Factors**: On the macro - level, the overly optimistic expectations have cooled down, and attention should be paid to the changes in Sino - US tariff policies. On the industrial - level, the actual supply - demand is balanced, and attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption progress of coking coal mines [6]. Trading Strategy - Short - term trading, with RB2510 focusing on the range of [3100 - 3300] [7]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Domestic main production areas are affected by frequent accidents, underground production disturbances, and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" policy, resulting in continuous supply - side disturbances and a tight overall supply pattern. The customs clearance volume at Mongolian ports is gradually recovering, but the downstream's receiving sentiment is cautious [31]. - **Demand**: The strengthening of the futures price has slightly boosted the sentiment in the spot market, but the operations of downstream coking and steel enterprises and intermediate trading links are still cautious. The online auctions of coal mines show differentiation, with both rises and falls. Most coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure, and the pit - mouth quotations remain stable overall [31]. - **Outlook**: The coking coal market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the "276" policy in domestic coal mines, the continuity of Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the changes in the replenishment rhythm of coking and steel enterprises [31]. Coke - **Supply**: After five rounds of price increases for coke, the profitability of mainstream coking enterprises has marginally improved, driving a slight increase in the start - up rhythm. However, due to the continuous rise in raw material coal prices, the cost pressure of some coking enterprises has not been fully alleviated, and there is a slight production - restriction phenomenon. The overall start - up remains stable [31]. - **Demand**: With the marginal improvement in coke arrivals, the inventory pressure of steel mills has slightly eased, and the replenishment is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The molten iron production remains high and volatile, providing rigid support for coke, but some steel mills may plan maintenance due to profit considerations, and the procurement rhythm is cautious [31]. - **Cost**: The price of coking coal remains high and volatile, with the increase of some coal types narrowing and the trading enthusiasm cooling down, but the overall cost center is still at a relatively high level, providing certain support for the coke price [31]. - **Outlook**: The coke market has a game between steel and coking enterprises, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the marginal improvement space is limited. Attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal, the profit changes of steel mills, and policy dynamics [31]. Trading Strategy - Neutral and wait - and - see [31]. Iron Ore Main Points - **Market Review**: Last week, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell, with the weekly line closing in the red and overall small fluctuations. After the macro - sentiment at the beginning of the month subsided, commodities generally showed a correction, but the correction range of the black series was small due to factors such as military - parade production restrictions and coking coal disturbances [71]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are gradually recovering after the end - of - fiscal - year rush of overseas mines, but the current shipment volume has slightly declined. The arrivals continue to increase due to the previous shipment rush, and the port inventory has further decreased. Domestic northern mines have seen a slight decline in production due to rainfall [71]. - **Demand**: The profitability of steel mills has continued to rise to a new high this year. Large blast furnaces are under maintenance, and the molten iron production has slightly decreased. Steel mills have replenished their inventories, but the inventory level is still lower than the same - period level [71]. - **Outlook**: The market is starting to price in events such as military - parade production restrictions, crude steel production restrictions, and blast furnace maintenance, which means there are expectations of a decline in molten iron demand. However, considering the many potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in molten iron will not be significant, which is beneficial for the iron ore market. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will be volatile and upward - trending [71]. Trading Strategy - Consider using iron ore as the long - leg when shorting other black - series varieties, and focus on the 770 support level for the 09 contract [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Plastic: There is an expectation of a rebound in downstream开工, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Polyethylene downstream is still in the traditional off - season, with no obvious boost in terminal demand. Although the overall downstream开工 rate has increased, the continuous restocking strength is insufficient. The market's expectation of anti - involution policies will still support the market. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 2509 contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 7200 - 7500 [5][6]. - PP: The pressure on the disk trend is relatively large, and it will fluctuate in the short term. During the off - season of demand, the downstream开工 rate remains stable. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" and the recent takeaway market competition will support downstream demand to some extent. However, there are many new production capacities on the supply side, and the disk pressure is still expected to be large. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 2509 contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 6900 - 7200 [7][8]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 8, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week. The average price of LDPE was 9533.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%. The average price of HDPE was 7987.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7483.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. The LLDPE South China basis was 185.29 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.11%. The 6 - 9 month spread was 70 yuan/ton (+25), with the basis narrowing and the month spread widening [6]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 63.35 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.91 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.32 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.20 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1060 yuan/ton (+10). The profit of oil - based PE was - 352 yuan/ton, an increase of 138 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PE was 989 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 84.08%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 66.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. The maintenance loss this week was 7.87 tons, a decrease of 1.28 tons from last week [6]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of agricultural film was 13.07%, an increase of 0.44% from last week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 49.30%, an increase of 0.60% from last week. The operating rate of PE pipes was 29.00%, an increase of 0.33% from last week [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 57.57 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.09% [6]. PP Market Changes - On August 8, the closing price of the polypropylene 2509 contract was 7062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 7246.67 yuan/ton (-8.33), a month - on - month decrease of 0.11%. The PP basis was 185 yuan/ton (-36), with the basis narrowing. The 5 - 9 month spread was 24 yuan/ton (-2), with the month spread narrowing [8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 63.35 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.91 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.32 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.20 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1060 yuan/ton (+10). The profit of oil - based PP was - 343.52 yuan/ton, an increase of 129.54 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PP was 519.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165.41 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China this week was 77.31%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.71 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91% [8]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 48.90% (+0.50%). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 41.10% (-0%), the operating rate of BOPP was 60.80% (+0%), the operating rate of injection molding was 56.73% (+0%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.23% (+0.06%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 58.71 tons (+3.95%); the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 5.18% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 8.08% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 2.08% month - on - month [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The price of bauxite is supported by the rainy season in Guinea and the uncertainty of a large mine's复产. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, while the downstream demand of aluminum is affected by the off - season and the decline of PV installation rush. The aluminum price rebounds at the support level but still faces inventory accumulation pressure, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips in August [3]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in August [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite remains stable at $74 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea affects bauxite mining and transportation, and the resumption of a large mine encounters variables. The operating capacity of alumina increases by 700,000 tons to 95.35 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increases by 42,000 tons to 3.285 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases by 30,000 tons to 44.259 million tons. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's operating rate rises by 0.1% to 58.7%, but shows a weakening trend due to the off - season and PV factors. The aluminum ingot inventory accumulates, and the aluminum rod inventory decreases. The market for recycled cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate continues to decline. The aluminum price rebounds at the support level but is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in August [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in August [4]. 2. Macro - economic Indicators No text summary information provided, only some charts about US Treasury yields, US dollar index, and RMB exchange rate are presented [6][7]. 3. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan remain stable due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as frequent rainfall. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite remains stable at $74 per dry ton, and the bauxite shipping volume shows a downward trend due to the rainy season and the uncertainty of a large mine's resumption [10]. 4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina is 113.02 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons; the operating capacity is 95.35 million tons, with a weekly increase of 700,000 tons, and the operating rate is 84.4%. The domestic spot weighted price is 3,289.3 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 10.6 yuan per ton. The national alumina inventory is 3.285 million tons, with a weekly increase of 42,000 tons. Newly invested capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north are gradually contributing to production. Some alumina enterprises are under maintenance [14]. 5. Alumina Important High - frequency Data No text summary information provided, only some charts about alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and shipping volume are presented [16][17][18][19]. 6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 45.232 million tons, remaining unchanged weekly; the operating capacity is 44.259 million tons, with a weekly increase of 30,000 tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases steadily, with the remaining small - scale capacity in Guizhou Anshun resuming production, the replacement capacity of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin being put into production, and the technical transformation project of Baise Yinhai gradually resuming power - on production [23]. 7. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - frequency Data No text summary information provided, only some charts about aluminum rod processing fees, Shanghai aluminum forward curve,动力煤 prices, and aluminum import profit are presented [25]. 8. Inventory No text summary information provided, only some charts about aluminum rod, aluminum ingot, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum inventories are presented [27][28][29][30]. 9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remains stable at 53.1% weekly. The market is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises in the southwest and south China are on high - temperature holidays. Although the orders of large sample factories are relatively stable, the overall operating rate continues to decline [33]. 10. Cast Aluminum Alloy Important High - frequency Data No text summary information provided, only some charts about cast aluminum alloy prices, forward curve, price difference, and import profit are presented [35][37][38][39]. 11. Downstream开工 - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreases by 0.5% to 49.5% weekly. Industrial profiles, especially automotive and PV profiles, show a weakening trend, and construction profiles have low order volumes due to weak terminal demand [43]. - **Aluminum Plates and Strips**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increases by 0.8% to 64% weekly. Some downstream industries such as automotive, electronics 3C, and construction start to stock up for the peak season, but the industry has insufficient expectations for the peak - season stocking to boost consumption in August [43]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises remains stable at 61.8% weekly. Some grid orders need to be delivered, but some aluminum alloy cable orders are still average. There are significant differences in the shipment expectations of enterprises in August, and the traditional peak - season characteristics have not fully emerged [46]. - **Primary Aluminum Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increases by 1% to 55.6% weekly. In the context of a significant decline in the output of primary aluminum processing sectors such as aluminum rods and aluminum poles, the primary aluminum alloy sector undertakes the task of aluminum - water alloying to some extent. The industry is in a weak and stable pattern due to weak demand in the off - season and the impact of high - temperature holidays [46].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the glass industry. Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the medium to long term, so it is considered bearish. However, considering the possible improvement in sales in Hebei and the relatively strong macro - expectations, short - term long positions can be tried for the 01 contract [3]. - The 09 contract has limited upside and downside space, and it is recommended that short positions stop profit and exit [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to try short - term long positions. The 01 contract should pay attention to the support level of 1160 - 1170 and try short - term long positions for one week [2][3]. 02 & 03 Market Review - **Price Changes**: As of August 8, the 5mm float glass market price in North China was 1,180 yuan/ton (-60), in Central China was 1,190 yuan/ton (-30), and in East China was 1,270 yuan/ton (-40). The glass 09 contract closed at 1063 yuan/ton last Friday, down 39 for the week [10]. - **Spread Changes**: As of August 8, the difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 269 yuan/ton (+115). The basis of the glass 09 contract last Friday was 77 yuan/ton (-21), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 133 yuan/ton (-11) [12][15]. 04 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,592 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was - 322 yuan/ton (-37). - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,180 yuan/ton (+9), and the gross profit was 0 yuan/ton (-69). - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,106 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was 84 yuan/ton (-27) [16][20]. 05 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 158,355 tons/day (+600), with 223 production lines in operation. The No. 1 float line of Zhejiang Futele restarted with a daily melting volume of 600T/D [22]. 06 Inventory - As of August 8, the national inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,184.7 million weight boxes (+234.8). Inventories in North China, Central China, East China, South China, and Southwest China all increased, and the inventories in Shahe and Hubei factories also rose [26][32]. 07 Deep - processing - On August 4, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 87% (+7%). On August 7, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (+2.2%). At the beginning of August, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.55 days (+0.25) [33]. 08 & 09 Demand - **Automobile**: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 145,000 and year - on - year increase of 287,000), and sales were 2.904 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 218,000 and year - on - year increase of 352,000). In July, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 987,000, with a penetration rate of 54% [45]. - **Real Estate**: In June, China's real estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters (-2% year - on - year), new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (-9%), construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (+5%), and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (-7%). The real estate development investment in June was 1.042416 trillion yuan (-12% year - on - year) [53]. 10 Soda Ash Market - **Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,400 yuan/ton (0), in East China was 1,350 yuan/ton (-25), in Central China was 1,325 yuan/ton (-50), and in South China was 1,500 yuan/ton (0). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,332 yuan/ton last Friday (+76) [55][57]. - **Basis**: The basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract last Friday was 76 yuan/ton (-43) [59]. 11 & 12 & 13 Cost - end Soda Ash - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method was 1,305 yuan/ton (+5), with a gross profit of 56 yuan/ton (-1); the cost of the joint - alkali method was 1,790 yuan/ton (-5), with a gross profit of 69 yuan/ton (-38) [63][65]. - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 744,600 tons (week - on - week increase of 44,800), including 423,400 tons of heavy soda ash (week - on - week increase of 24,700) and 321,200 tons of light soda ash (week - on - week increase of 20,100). The inventory was 1.8651 million tons (week - on - week increase of 69,300). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 7,715 (+4,925) [72][78]. - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 378,700 tons (week - on - week decrease of 39,600). The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 90.69% (week - on - week decrease of 19.14%). The soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories in July were 25.8 days [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and government bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore and coking coal are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is suitable for range trading or observation, aluminum is recommended to buy on dips, nickel is suggested to observe or short on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are suitable for range trading [1][11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soda ash is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage [1][21]. - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment, apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][36]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies, corn is expected to have range fluctuations, soybean meal is expected to have limited increases, and oils are at a high - level with an increasing risk of correction [1][40]. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events, resulting in different trends for different varieties. For example, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's economic data, and trade policies all have an impact on the market [6][11]. - Most varieties are in a state of fluctuating operation, and investors should choose appropriate investment strategies according to the characteristics of each variety, such as range trading, short - long arbitrage, and buying on dips [1]. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and China's economic data, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Government Bonds**: In the short term, the market lacks a clear trend, and the yield is at a neutral level, so it is expected to fluctuate [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season, and the short - term is expected to remain volatile. Investors can observe or conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the supply is increasing, considering the possible macro - benefits in the fourth quarter, the iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly and can be used as a long - leg in the short - other - black - varieties strategy [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is tight, and the coke market has mixed factors. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by factors such as China's economic improvement and low inventory, but facing the pressure of inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is decreasing, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price falls [12][14]. - **Nickel**: With an oversupply pattern in the medium - long term, it is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the demand is in the off - season. It is suitable for range trading in the range of 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Fed's policies and trade policies, they are expected to fluctuate and are suitable for range trading [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply and uncertain export sustainability, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4900 - 5100 [21][23]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply and stable demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental benefits and a warm macro - environment, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [25][26]. - **Rubber**: With limited cost and supply support and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15200 - 15600 [27][28]. - **Urea**: With supply and demand in a balanced state, it is suitable for range operation in the range of 1700 - 1830 [30]. - **Methanol**: With supply and demand stabilizing, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31][32]. - **Polyolefins**: With high supply pressure and low - season demand, they are expected to fluctuate in the range of L2509: 7200 - 7500 and PP2509: 6900 - 7200 [32][33]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage due to the weak spot market and expected inventory accumulation [33][35]. Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic production expectations, they are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment [36][37]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With slow sales and normal new - fruit growth, they are expected to fluctuate weakly [37][39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. Different contracts have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [40][42]. - **Eggs**: With high supply and uncertain demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long term, there are supply gaps, and different contracts have different investment strategies [46][47]. - **Oils**: With expected negative reports and high inventory, there is an increasing risk of correction, but there are also some supporting factors. Different varieties have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [48][55].

长江期货尿素周报： 上下有限 区间震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 尿素：上下有限 区间震荡 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格先强后弱，8月8日尿素2509合约收盘价1728元/吨，较上周上调19元/吨，涨幅 1.11%。尿素现货河南市场日均价1771元/吨，较上周上调17元/吨，涨幅0.97%。基差：尿素主力基差震荡运行， 周度基差运行区间-8-45元/吨，8月8日河南市场主力基差43元/吨，较上周基本持平，期间8月5日收盘基差-8元/吨。 价差：尿素9-1价差走弱，表现为01合约升水，8月8日9-1价差-23元/吨，周度运行区间-23——-10元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率82.72%，较上周降低2.21个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.47%， 较上周降低3.15个百分点，尿素日均产量18.98万吨。成本端无烟煤市场价格稳中偏强调整，下游用煤企业原料煤采 购仍以刚需为主，对高价煤接受度一般。截至8月7日，山西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价820-890元 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [6][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - buy on dips; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [6][12][14] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuate [23][25][27] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apple - fluctuate weakly; Jujube - fluctuate weakly [38] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pig - short on rallies; Egg - short on rallies; Corn - range fluctuate; Soybean meal - limited upside; Oils - limited rebound [41][44][45] Core Views - The global market shows mixed performance with different indexes having various trends. In the futures market, different products are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes, resulting in different expected price movements [2][6] - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may fluctuate due to the combination of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of the domestic market. The 10 - year treasury bond may fluctuate around 1.70% [6] - In the black building materials sector, the supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced, and it may enter a short - term fluctuating pattern. Iron ore may fluctuate strongly, and coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate due to supply and demand factors [7][8][10] - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper may fluctuate weakly at a high level. Aluminum may be bought on dips considering its supply - demand and inventory situation. Nickel may fluctuate, and tin and precious metals may fluctuate within a certain range [12][14][18] - In the energy and chemicals sector, products like PVC, caustic soda, and styrene may fluctuate due to cost, supply - demand, and macro - factors. Soda ash is recommended for a short 09 and long 05 arbitrage [23][25][27] - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn may fluctuate and adjust. Apple and jujube may fluctuate weakly due to supply - demand in the spot market [38] - In the agricultural and livestock sector, pigs and eggs may be shorted on rallies. Corn may fluctuate within a range, soybean meal may have limited upside, and oils may have a limited rebound [41][44][45] Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: Fluctuate. Influenced by Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic market resilience, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover [6] - Treasury Bonds: Fluctuate. The 10 - year treasury bond may use 1.70% as the central position of the operating range, considering the current market situation and upcoming events [6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: Fluctuate. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season, and it may enter a short - term fluctuating pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption progress of coking coal [7][8] - Iron Ore: Fluctuate. The market starts to trade events such as military parade, crude steel production restrictions, and blast furnace maintenance. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, it may fluctuate strongly [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuate. For coking coal, the supply is disturbed, and the demand is cautious. For coke, the supply and demand are in a balanced state with multiple factors affecting the market [10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Fluctuate weakly at a high level. Affected by macro - data, supply - demand in the industry, and tariff policies, it may continue to fluctuate weakly [12][13] - Aluminum: Fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite and alumina, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum, and the demand and inventory situation all affect the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [14][15][16] - Nickel: Fluctuate. The nickel market has an oversupply pattern, and the price may fluctuate within a certain range [18] - Tin: Fluctuate. The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, and it is recommended for range trading [20] - Gold and Silver: Fluctuate. Affected by US economic data, trade policies, and Fed's interest - rate policies, they are expected to fluctuate with support at the bottom [20][22] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Fluctuate. High supply, uncertain export sustainability, and macro - factors may lead to short - term fluctuations [23][24] - Soda Ash: Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and the supply is increasing, so this arbitrage strategy is recommended [35][36][37] - Caustic Soda: Fluctuate. The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slowing growth rate. It may fluctuate within a certain range [25][26] - Styrene: Fluctuate. The cost, supply - demand, and macro - factors affect the price, and it may fluctuate within a certain range [27][29] - Rubber: Fluctuate. The cost and supply support are limited, and the demand is weak, so it may fluctuate slightly [30][31] - Urea: Fluctuate. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, so the price may fluctuate within a certain range [32][33] - Methanol: Fluctuate. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. It may fluctuate due to the overall industrial product price fluctuations [33] - Polyolefins: Fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It may fluctuate within a certain range [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Fluctuate and adjust. The global cotton supply and demand situation and the domestic market situation may lead to price fluctuations [38] - Apple: Fluctuate weakly. The slow sales of apples in the spot market and the normal growth of new fruits may lead to price pressure [38][39] - Jujube: Fluctuate weakly. The new - season situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area may lead to price fluctuations [39] Agricultural and Livestock - Pig: Short on rallies. The short - term supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. Different contracts have different price trends and trading strategies [41][43] - Egg: Short on rallies. The current supply and demand situation and the long - term supply trend affect the price, and different contracts have different trading strategies [44][45] - Corn: Range fluctuate. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the long - term cost is decreasing. It may fluctuate within a certain range [45][46] - Soybean Meal: Limited upside. The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply may have a gap. Different contracts have different trading strategies [47][48] - Oils: Limited rebound. The supply - demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors, and the price may have a limited rebound [49][50][54]

Overall Investment Outlook - The stock index is expected to fluctuate, influenced by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and the resilience of the domestic market [1] - The 10 - year treasury bond is likely to fluctuate, with 1.70% as the central position of the operating range [2] Stock Index Core View - Trump nominated Stephen Milan, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, as a Fed governor until the end of January next year. Fed Governor Waller is considered a top candidate for Fed Chair by the Trump team. The number of continued unemployment claims in the US last week rose to the highest since the end of 2021. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 4.1%. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month - on - month, and the central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 9th consecutive month. The stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the stock index may fluctuate [1] Strategy Recommendation - The stock index is expected to have a fluctuating trend [1] Market Review - The main contract futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 fell by 0.15%, 0.01%, 0.64%, and 0.30% respectively [5] Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator shows that the market has a rebound trend [5] Treasury Bond Core View - The market on Thursday continued the recent favorable pattern, with the yield moving downward. Although the July import and export data announced on Thursday were much better than expected and the previous values, the market did not price them much. Other fundamental data may decline in the short term. Considering the approaching major event in September, production restrictions may increase, and the intensity of production activities will decline. The 10 - year treasury bond will likely have 1.70% as the central position of the operating range [2] Strategy Recommendation - The treasury bond market is expected to fluctuate [3] Market Review - The 10 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year main contracts of treasury bonds rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained unchanged [6] Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,092.60 | - 0.15 | 54,603 | 149,221 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,797.80 | - 0.01 | 29,486 | 56,447 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,226.40 | - 0.64 | 48,504 | 106,065 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,750.00 | - 0.30 | 119,420 | 179,795 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.62 | 0.05 | 55,898 | 168,410 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.83 | 0.05 | 49,908 | 116,978 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.37 | 0.03 | 98,360 | 97,159 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.37 | 0.00 | 31,654 | 83,798 | [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coke and coking coal - fluctuate [6][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - buy on dips; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [11][14][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefin - wide - range fluctuate [21][23][25]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apple - fluctuate weakly; Jujube - fluctuate weakly [37][38][40]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuate; Soybean meal - range fluctuate; Oils - fluctuate strongly [41][43][47]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro - financial, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It assesses the impact of events such as tariffs, policies, and supply - demand relationships on prices and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by events like Trump's tariff policies and Fed's stance, with the Fed's mixed signals on interest rates and corporate investment moves, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After a monthly - level adjustment, the bond market is expected to recover in the short - term due to factors like the macro data vacuum period, stable and loose capital, and institutional demand for position - filling. However, the previous adjustment was not deep, so the recovery will be limited [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is affected by factors such as the new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" and the supply - demand balance. The futures price is above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, and it is expected to enter a fluctuating pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Considering the decline in iron ore shipments and the expected decrease in iron - water demand, but with potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be considered as a long - leg in shorting other black varieties, with the 09 contract supported at 770 [8]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: For coking coal, the supply is limited, and the demand has returned to normal after restocking. The price is expected to fluctuate. For coke, after the fifth price increase, the supply has increased, and the demand is stable. It is expected to follow coking coal and fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate stance, tariff policies, and supply - demand in the off - season, the copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. The technical support is at 77600 [11]. - **Aluminum**: The bauxite shipment from Guinea is decreasing, and the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are changing. With the decline in downstream demand and inventory accumulation, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to build long positions at low levels [13]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap is improving, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to fluctuate, and range trading is recommended [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data, interest - rate expectations, and tariff policies, the precious metals' prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy on dips [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4900 - 5100 [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2530, with short - term long opportunities in the far - month contracts [25]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals are not favorable, and the macro is positive. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [27]. - **Rubber**: With limited cost and supply support, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15200 - 15600 [28]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually picking up. The price is expected to be supported at the bottom and pressured at the top, with range trading recommended [32]. - **Methanol**: The supply is slightly increasing, and the demand is stable. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the overall industrial product prices [33]. - **Polyolefin**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, and the supply is increasing. It is recommended to short the 09 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [37]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are both increasing, and the inventory is rising. The Xinjiang production is expected to be good, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [38]. - **Apple**: The spot market is weak, with slow inventory clearance and seasonal fruit competition. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [38]. - **Jujube**: The new - season production in the producing area is uncertain, and the sales area has limited arrivals. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [40]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the supply will increase significantly after September. In the long - term, the supply will continue to grow. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the 05 - 03 arbitrage [42]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by the high - temperature season, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the long - term supply is expected to increase due to high - level replenishment. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the elimination situation [43]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350. It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally and consider the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage [44]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to have limited upside. In the long - term, there may be a supply gap. It is recommended to build long positions cautiously in the short - term and adjust positions in the long - term [46]. - **Oils**: Although there are positive factors such as the expected reduction in palm oil supply and the improvement of soybean oil inventory, the short - term supply - demand situation and high inventory may limit the upward rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and consider arbitrage strategies [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Futures - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, with companies like Apple building factories in the US being exempt; under tariff pressure, Apple invests an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing. Trump orders an extra 25% tariff on India, but Apple is unaffected. Indian media reports that Modi will visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. The Swiss leader's attempt to persuade Trump before the 39% tariff takes effect is allegedly unsuccessful. The US-Japan trade agreement dispute persists, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis. With the expectation of a Fed rate cut and the resilience of the domestic market, the stock market trading volume and index continue to recover, and index futures may fluctuate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Recently, as the macro narrative temporarily fades, a low-volatility state may return to the bond market. Coupled with the refined operation of the roll spread by trading desks, the narrowing of the recent fluctuation range may be inevitable. In the short term, the relatively favorable conditions for the bond market mainly come from: the window period of macro data and the expectation that data such as social financing may weaken, the continuous stable and loose capital situation, and the need for some institutions to replenish positions after portfolio adjustments. However, the previous bond market adjustment was not a deep one, so the recent recovery will also be relatively limited [2]. Strategy Recommendations Index Futures - Fluctuate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Fluctuate [2]. Market Review Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.37%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.19%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.09%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.34% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10-year main contract remained unchanged, the 5-year main contract rose 0.02%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.02% [5]. Technical Analysis Index Futures - The KDJ indicator shows that the market has a rebound trend [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-06 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,097.00 | 0.37 | 42,038 | 144,956 | | 2025-08-06 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,796.20 | 0.19 | 23,697 | 55,640 | | 2025-08-06 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,263.20 | 1.09 | 37,260 | 103,512 | | 2025-08-06 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,762.60 | 1.34 | 106,338 | 178,409 | | 2025-08-06 | 10-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.56 | 0.00 | 64,393 | 170,929 | | 2025-08-06 | 5-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.78 | 0.02 | 47,098 | 121,825 | | 2025-08-06 | 30-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.33 | -0.04 | 78,797 | 100,822 | | 2025-08-06 | 2-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.37 | 0.02 | 27,216 | 86,480 | [7]