1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches based on the specific situation of each commodity, such as waiting for buying opportunities after a pullback, selling short at high prices, or taking a wait - and - see approach [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and high copper prices leading to a need for consolidation. The supply side has low processing fees and slightly increasing domestic inventory. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract closed down 0.22% on Friday. Supply is stable with high - load production, while demand has a 1% drop in weekly aluminum product开工率. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices due to weakening price support [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract closed down 0.07% on Friday. Supply capacity increased by 400,000 tons, and demand is stable. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and buying long - term call options [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices rebounded last week. Supply is high with a slight decline in weekly output, and demand is expected to increase 2 - 3% in July before entering the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices after the market consensus is reached [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and short - term tin ore shortages. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The 2510 contract was flat. The market has a balanced supply - demand situation with low inventory pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and try a 10/1 reverse spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply - demand is neutral, and the trading strategy is to wait and set up long positions in the far - month coil - ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. The trading strategy is to wait [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans were closed on Friday. Supply is loose in the near - term and normal in the far - term, and demand is in line with expectations. The trading strategy is to follow the international cost side, and the focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract declined. The supply - demand is tightening, but wheat substitution and increased imports may suppress prices. The trading strategy is range trading [4][5]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar had small increases. International sugar is expected to decline, and domestic sugar will follow the international trend. The trading strategy is to sell short [5]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton was closed on Friday, and Zhengzhou cotton was strong. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices and trade in a range [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Prices declined slightly on Friday. Supply is decreasing marginally but still high, and demand is increasing. The trading strategy is to focus on production and policies [5]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract was flat. Supply is high, and demand is affected by weather. The trading strategy is range trading [5]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and the trading strategy is range adjustment [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [6]. - **PVC**: The v2509 contract declined 0.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and the trading strategy is to wait [6]. - **PTA**: PX prices are rising, and PTA is in a de - stocking phase. The trading strategy is to hold PX long positions, do PTA positive spreads, and short processing fees at high prices [6]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract declined 0.36%. Supply is affected by rain, and demand has some pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and then short after the US tariff policy is clear [6]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract declined 0.1%. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and the trading strategy is to wait [6][7]. - **PP**: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is mixed. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is low. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August. Supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - **Styrene**: The contract rebounded slightly on Friday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract declined 0.8%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices [8].

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 沥青供应端影响因素 ——沥青专题报告（三） 2025年7月4日 • 安婧 • anjing@cmschina.com.cn • 执业资格号Z0014623 沥青的转产工艺 数据来源： 《炼油厂总工艺流程设计 ➢ 沥青转产焦化料的原理：焦化料顾名 思义是指延迟焦化装置的原料，从左 图可知焦化料即是调和或未调和的 减 压渣油，并且由图可知延迟焦化装置 和沥青氧化 /调和装置的原料相同， 因此焦化料（减压渣油）若用于产沥 青则不能用于延迟焦化装置，使得两 条生产线存在"此消彼长"的关系。 ➢ 转产一般只发生在地方炼厂，因沥青 是地炼的主产品，沥青利润对地炼综 合利润起决定性作用，但对于主营炼 厂而言，沥青是其副产品，主营炼厂 的开工率 /产量主要考虑的是炼油综 合利润。 ➢ 由于产沥青的地炼通常加工的是中重 质高硫原油，因此这里的焦化料（减 压渣油）通常指的是高硫渣油。 ➢ 炼厂可根据沥青生产利润以及通过对 比沥青价格与焦化料价格来调节道路 》，招商期货 沥青的产量。 沥青供应影响因素分析——地炼利润 理论上，地炼沥青产量调整的逻辑推演： 1.首先，只有沥青生产利润>0时，炼厂才会生产沥 ...

2025年07月04日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | 基本面：美国大漂亮法案在众议院通过，美国非农数据超预期，降息预期延迟。国内周度库存增加 0.57 万吨， | | | 铜 | 华东华南平水铜升水 80 元和 30 元。伦敦结构 109 美金 back。 | | | | 交易策略：突破 1 万美金后或有震荡整理，但上行方向不变。 | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.41%，收于 20580 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 330 元/吨， | | | | | LME 价格 2608.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境呈现利好。但沪铝基本面面临需求走弱及成本支撑趋弱的双重压力，存在潜在下行风险， | | | | 建议谨慎看多。 | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏 ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [1] - Report Company: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - For stock index futures, in the short - term, the discount of stock indices is reverting and the direction is unclear, so a neutral strategy can be considered; in the medium - to long - term, a bullish view on the economy is maintained, and it is recommended to allocate IF, IC, IM forward contracts on dips; for near - month contracts, there is a risk of decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [2]. - For treasury bond futures, the long - end has strong bullish power, betting on a further decline in future policy rates. A strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended, buying T and TL on dips in the short - term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long - term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market Performance - On July 3, the four major A - share stock indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3461.15 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17% to 10534.58 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.9% to 2164.09 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.24% to 984.95 points. Market turnover was 1333.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.6 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while coal, transportation, and steel led the losses. In terms of market strength, IF>IM>IC>IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 3270, 283, and 1863 respectively. Net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 3.6 billion yuan, - 6.1 billion yuan, - 5 billion yuan, and 7.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 19.4 billion yuan, + 11.3 billion yuan, - 9.8 billion yuan, and - 20.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. Basis and Trading Strategy - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 135.04, 102.86, 40.07, and 21.55 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 16.63%, - 13.57%, - 7.89%, and - 6.18% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 11%, 9%, 15%, and 19% respectively. The trading strategy is as described in the core views [2]. Stock Index Futures Contracts Performance - Details of the performance of various stock index futures contracts such as IC, IF, IH, and IM in terms of price, trading volume, open interest, basis, etc. are provided in Table 1 [6]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On July 3, the yields of most treasury bond futures rose. For active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.301, unchanged from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.441, up 0.24 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.565, up 0.6 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.904, up 0.42 bps [3]. Cash Bonds and Trading Strategy - The current active contract is the 2509 contract. Information on the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is provided. In terms of trading strategy, the long - end has strong bullish power, and a short - term long and long - term short strategy is recommended, buying T and TL on dips in the short - term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long - term [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Contracts Performance - Details of the performance of various treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL in terms of price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, etc. are provided in Table 2 [8]. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real estate sentiment have contracted. Changes in short - term funding rates are also presented in Table 3 [12].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 2nd, A-share four major stock indexes pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 3454.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.61% to 10412.63 points, the ChiNext Index down 1.13% to 2123.72 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index down 1.22% to 982.64 points. Market turnover was 1.4051 trillion yuan, a decrease of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, steel (+3.37%), coal (+1.99%), and building materials (+1.42%) led the gains; electronics (-2.01%), communication (-1.96%), and national defense and military industry (-1.94%) led the losses [1]. - From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,943/190/3,282 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were -15.8 billion, -17.4 billion, 4.8 billion, and 28.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -6.7 billion, -3.4 billion, +2.5 billion, and +7.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 120.68, 86.75, 40.48, and 24.95 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -14.49%, -11.15%, -7.78%, and -6.94% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 12%, 16%, and 18% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the stock index discount is reverting, and the current direction is unclear. A neutral strategy can be considered. In the medium - to long - term, the report maintains the judgment of being long on the economy. Using stock indexes as long - term substitutes has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indexes, so caution is advised [1]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Yield Changes**: On July 2nd, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.302, down 1.59 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.442, down 1.56 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.561, down 1.71 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.902, down 2.12 bps [2]. - **Spot Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -0.6 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.054, and an IRR of 1.76%; for the 5 - year, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of -1.25 bps, a net basis of -0.081, and an IRR of 1.88%; for the 10 - year, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a net basis of -0.126, and an IRR of 2.04%; for the 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -2 bps, a net basis of -0.003, and an IRR of 1.51% [3]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 98.5 billion yuan and withdrew 365.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: On the futures side, the long - end buying power is strong, possibly betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates. It is recommended to be short - term long and medium - to long - term short. Short - term, buy T and TL on dips, and medium - to long - term, hedge T and TL on rallies [3]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real - estate market sentiment have contracted [11].

2025年07月03日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行，伦敦价格突破 1 万美金。 | | | 基本面：昨日美国小非农数据不增反降，数据后美债收益率下行。供应端铜矿和精铜紧张有增无减，市场担 | | 铜 | 忧 232 落地后铜价受影响。伦敦结构 74 美金 back。华东华南平水铜现货升水 90 元和 50 元。 | | | 交易策略：在反内卷的情况下，商品呈现偏多氛围，铜宏观环境和基本面均支持价格走强，维持逢低买入思 | | | 路。 | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.31%，收于 20580 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 320 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2591 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境呈现利好。但沪铝基本面面临需求走弱及成本支撑趋弱的双重压力，存在潜在下行风险， | | | 建议 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Views - Short - term: For stock index futures, with the short - term regression of index futures discount and unclear direction, a neutral strategy can be considered; for treasury bond futures, long - end buying power is strong, suggesting a short - long and long - short strategy, buying T and TL contracts on dips in the short - term and hedging on rallies in the long - term [1][2]. - Medium - to long - term: Maintain the view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Stock Index Market**: On July 1, A - share four major stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to 3457.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.11% to 10476.29 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.24% to 2147.92 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.86% to 994.8 points. Market turnover was 1496.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive, pharmaceutical and biological, and banking sectors led the gains, while computer, commercial and retail, and communication sectors led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC>IM>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2628, 247, and 2542 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 9.1 billion, - 14 billion, 2.3 billion, and 20.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 10.8 billion, - 8.3 billion, + 4.9 billion, and + 14.2 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 163.37, 117.07, 47.76, and 26.71 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 18.85%, - 14.5%, - 8.91%, and - 7.23% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 6%, 8%, 10%, and 17% respectively [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 1, treasury bond futures yields showed a pattern of short - term rising and long - term falling. Among active contracts, the implied interest rates of two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year bonds were 1.318 (up 0.93bps from the previous day), 1.453 (down 0.72bps), 1.577 (down 1.12bps), and 1.922 (down 1.39bps) respectively. For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bonds' yield changes, net basis, and IRR of different - term treasury bond futures were also provided [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 131 billion yuan and withdrew 406.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan [2]. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Consider a neutral strategy; medium - to long - term: recommend allocating IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips; be cautious with near - month contracts due to the risk of small - cap stocks falling [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term, buy T and TL contracts on dips; long - term, hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2]. Economic Data High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real - estate market sentiment have contracted [9]. Short - term Funding Rates The current prices of SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 are 1.37, 1.37, 1.53, and 1.55 respectively, showing different changes compared with the previous day, a week ago, and a month ago [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, in the short - term, the stock index discount is reverting and the direction is unclear, so a neutral strategy can be considered; in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to buy IF, IC, IM forward contracts on dips as the judgment of a bullish economy is maintained [1]. - For bond futures, the long - end has strong bullish power, and it is suggested to take a short - long and long - short strategy, buying T and TL on dips in the short - term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the medium - to long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On June 30, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59% to 3444.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.83% to 10465.12 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.35% to 2153.01 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.54% to 1003.41 points. Market turnover was 1517.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Defense and military (+4.35%), media (+2.83%), and communication (+1.9%) led the gains, while non - bank finance (-0.77%), banks (-0.34%), and transportation (-0.09%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4054/237/1126 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows were 1.7 billion, - 5.7 billion, - 2.6 billion, and 6.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +5.4 billion, +6.0 billion, - 0.3 billion, and - 11.2 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 135.58, 96.59, 42.88, and 22.99 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.24%, - 11.66%, - 7.78%, and - 6.05% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 13%, 11%, 16%, and 20% respectively [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On June 30, the yields of bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.311, up 3.32bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.464, up 2.88bps; the ten - year bond was 1.593, up 2.55bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.937, up 2.49bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the two - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.041, and an IRR of 1.73%; for the five - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 220027.IB, with a yield change of +0.37bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.033, and an IRR of 1.77%; for the ten - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 220010.IB, with a yield change of +0.77bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.108, and an IRR of 1.42%; for the thirty - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.229, and an IRR of 1.13% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 331.5 billion yuan and withdrew 220.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 111 billion yuan [2]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real - estate market sentiment have contracted [10].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each commodity, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on market conditions and trends. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed a slightly stronger oscillation yesterday. With a focus on US interest - rate cut expectations and a weakening US dollar, the tight supply of copper ore continued. London inventory decreased by 650 tons, and the spot was in short supply. The trading strategy is to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed up 0.73% yesterday. The supply side saw a slight increase in operating capacity, while the demand side had a slight decline in the aluminum product开工 rate. Given the positive macro - environment but potential downward risks in fundamentals, a cautious bullish view is recommended [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 1.26% yesterday. Supply and demand were both stable. With the spot price stabilizing and the futures price converging to the basis, it is expected to oscillate within a range, and a wait - and - see approach is advised [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract had a high - opening and oscillating performance on Monday. Affected by factory production cuts and coal price increases, the spot price stopped falling. With supply contraction in the northwest and potential restarts in polysilicon, the futures price may have limited upside. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract closed down 0.77% yesterday. Supply reached a record high in June, and demand was weak in the near - term. Inventory was at a high level. The near - term may see a slight rebound, but a wait - and - see or sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [1][2]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract had a high - level oscillation on Monday. Supply may increase, and demand is expected to decline in the third quarter. After the media's attention on the photovoltaic industry's competition, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract showed a weak oscillation. Inventory increased slightly, and supply - demand was relatively balanced but with a seasonal deterioration trend. The futures premium narrowed, and a short - selling strategy for the 2510 contract is recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract had a weak oscillation. Supply and demand were neutral, with a marginal strengthening in the short - term but an over - supply situation in the medium - term. The futures was in a contango structure, and a short - selling strategy for the 2509 contract is recommended [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract had a weak oscillation. Supply was relatively loose but improving. The futures was at a premium, and a short - selling strategy for the 2509 contract is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans showed mixed performance overnight. Supply was loose in the near - term and normal in the US in the long - term. Demand was seasonally weak in US exports but supported by bio - diesel policies. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [3]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price rose. Supply - demand tightened, and the spot price is expected to be strong. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed down 0.22%. With Brazil's ethanol policy having limited impact on sugar production, the domestic market is expected to follow the weak trend of raw sugar. A short - selling strategy in the futures market and selling call options are recommended [3]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell overnight, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated weakly. International supply conditions were good, and domestic inventory decreased. A wait - and - see approach with an oscillation - range strategy is recommended [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price fell slightly. Supply was marginally weakening but still high year - on - year, and demand increased in exports. It is in a seasonal weak phase, and attention should be paid to production and bio - diesel policies [3]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract rose, and the spot price was stable. Supply was high, and demand was affected by price and weather. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was strong, and the spot price rose. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but in the medium - term, supply will increase, and the price will decline [5]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed up slightly. The opening price of early - maturing varieties may support the futures price, but market expectations may change with supply increases. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract had a slight oscillation yesterday. Supply increased domestically while imports may decline. Demand improved marginally. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [6]. - **PVC**: The v09 contract closed down 1.3%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory decreased. A strategy of closing short positions and selling call options above 4950 is recommended [6][7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is at a medium - low level, and PTA supply decreased. Polyester load decreased slightly. PX long - positions can be held, and PTA positive spreads can be considered in the short - term, while short - selling processing margins on rallies is recommended in the long - term [7]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract closed down 0.43%. Inventory in Qingdao increased unexpectedly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with short - positions held above 14000 and positive spreads of RU - NR held [7]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract closed down 2.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory accumulated unexpectedly. Selling call options above 1250 is recommended [7]. - **PP**: The main contract had a slight oscillation. Supply increased, and demand was differentiated. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [7][8]. - **MEG**: Supply is at a high level and may increase, and inventory is at a low level. With a balanced supply - demand situation, short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: After the geopolitical premium subsided, the oil price entered an oscillation mode. In the short - term, the price has limited downside, but in the long - term, it is expected to be bearish due to over - supply. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The main contract had a slight oscillation. Supply may increase in the future, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [8][9]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract closed down 2.4%. Supply increased, and inventory accumulated at a high level. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and selling out - of - the - money call options above 1400 is recommended [9].