招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 昨日贵金属市场大幅走强，白银涨幅超过 5%。 | | 属 | 【消息面】 | | | 特朗普 5 月 30 日上周五称，6 月 4 日起，将把美国进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的 25%上调至 50%；欧盟表 | | | 示如果双方无法达成一致，最迟 7 月中，可能打击超千亿美元进口美国产品的欧盟反制措施就要生效；美国 | | | 称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识；周末俄乌冲突加剧，俄罗斯重要战略武器遭到攻击。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 48.5，连续三个月萎缩，进口指标创十六年新低，不及预期和前值；订单量 | | | 连续第四个月萎缩，进口指数创 2009 年以来新低，出口指数创五年新低，物价支付指数仍高企。；欧元区 5 | | | PMI 月制造业 为 49.4，萎缩放缓，产出连续第三个月增长，显示复苏迹象。 | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1206 吨，较前一交易日减少 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. Be cautious with near - month contracts due to the potential risk of micro - cap stocks dragging down IC and IM indices [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Suggest short - term long and long - term short strategies. Short - term, buy T and TL on dips; long - term, hedge T and TL on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance (May 30)**: The four major A - share stock indices回调. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47% to 3347.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to 10040.63 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.96% to 1993.19 points, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index fell 0.94% to 977.03 points. Market turnover was 1.1642 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.2 billion yuan from the previous day. Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+1.2%), banks (+0.64%), and pharmaceutical biology (+0.37%) led the gains, while industries such as automobiles (-1.91%), comprehensive (-1.87%), and electronics (-1.85%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1116/134/4160 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 19.3 billion, - 15.9 billion, 9.7 billion, and 25.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 31.5 billion, - 11.2 billion, +25.6 billion, and +17.1 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 149.36, 111.67, 54.63, and 45.5 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 17.7%, - 14.07%, - 10.16%, and - 12.13% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 7%, 8%, 5%, and 7% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The deep discount of small - cap stock indices recently may be due to the expansion of neutral product scale this year. Since the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of neutral short positions may still be high, so the deep discount may continue. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips and be cautious with near - month contracts [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance (May 30)**: The yields of most treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.379, a decrease of 3.19 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.497, a decrease of 3.13 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.657, an increase of 0.3 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.984, a decrease of 3.1 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 2.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.056, and an IRR of 1.85%; for the 5 - year, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 3.25 bps, a net basis of - 0.054, and an IRR of 1.84%; for the 10 - year, the CTD bond is 220010.IB, with a yield change of - 2 bps, a net basis of - 0.029, and an IRR of 1.76%; for the 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25 bps, a net basis of 0.031, and an IRR of 1.58% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank's currency injection was 291.1 billion yuan, and currency withdrawal was 142.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current situation of strong supply and weak demand in the cash bond market is expected to change. In the futures market, the long - end bullish force is strong. It is recommended to take short - term long and long - term short positions, buy T and TL on dips in the short - term, and hedge T and TL on rallies in the long - term [2]. Economic Data High - frequency data shows that in May, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined, while the real estate market's prosperity increased [10].

金融研究 2025年5月30日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 29 日，A 股四大股指全线反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.7%，报收 3363.45 点；深成指 上涨 1.24%，报收 10127.2 点；创业板指上涨 1.37%，报收 2012.55 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.61%， 报收 986.3 点。市场成交 12,134 亿元，较前日增加 1,795 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+3.62%)， 医药生物(+2.37%)，电子(+2.1%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-0.59%)，银行(-0.24%)，食品饮料(-0.23%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,468/109/831。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 121、-47、-160、85 亿元，分别变动+179、+81、-180、-79 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 147.78、121.11、61.1 与 46.89 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-16.85%、-14.7%、-11%与-12.1%，三年期历史分位数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for various commodities shows different trends and characteristics, with each commodity facing unique supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these fundamentals [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. The Trump administration's tariff appeal, a weaker dollar, and low risk appetite put pressure on base metals. Social inventory decreased weekly, and downstream stocking was limited. It is expected to continue range - bound in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract price rose 0.52% to 20,185 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level with increasing operating capacity, while demand is slowing with a slight decline in the aluminum product start - up rate. The continuous inventory reduction supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract price fell 0.90% to 2,964 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity release, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also rising. The expected supply surplus suppresses futures prices, but there is uncertainty in Guinea's mining policy [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price rose 1.24% to 22,780 yuan/ton. Social inventory decreased. The supply is relatively loose with high raw material inventory in smelters and the resumption of some smelters. Apparent consumption shows resilience. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose 0.09% to 16,715 yuan/ton. The supply of recycled lead increases with new capacity and production resumption, while demand from lead - acid battery markets is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a small range [1][2]. - **Tin**: The price continued to weaken. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and concerns about increased supply from Myanmar's resumption of production led to a bearish market. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The price hit a new low. Supply did not contract significantly, and there was a high inventory. Demand from the polysilicon industry may decline in May. The price is expected to oscillate between 7,000 - 8,000 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The 2507 contract price fell 2.52%. Supply increased with a weekly output of 16,580 tons (up 3.03% week - on - week). Demand growth was slow, and inventory was high with a slight decrease. It is recommended to hold short positions or short sell far - month contracts [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price showed a differentiated performance. Supply was relatively stable in the short term, and inventory decreased but remained high. Demand in the component segment was weak. After the 06 contract delivery month, consider short - selling the 07 contract on rebounds [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price rose. Steel demand increased marginally, and production decreased. It is recommended to close long positions and consider short - selling for aggressive investors [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price rose. Port inventory decreased, and iron - water production decreased slightly. Supply was in line with the seasonal pattern, and the medium - term supply surplus remained. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price fell. Iron - water production decreased slightly, and the first - round price cut was implemented, with a second - round cut proposed. Supply was relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Supply is loose in the near - term from South America and the sowing of new US soybeans is accelerating. Demand is seasonally weak. US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic market will follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price rebounded slightly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally this year. The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen due to wheat price support [5]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract price fell 0.21%. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The domestic market is affected by import and inventory conditions. The price trend follows the raw sugar market and is expected to be bearish [5][6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated downward. Yarn prices are weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rebounded. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand for exports has improved. The price is expected to be in a weak but not smooth phase [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated narrowly. Supply is high, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract price rebounded after hitting a low. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak due to high temperatures. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy [6]. - **Apples**: The price is at a high - level oscillation. New - season production is affected by extreme weather, and there are concerns about yield. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing with new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices, and demand is in the off - season for agricultural films. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price fell 0.6%. Supply is expected to increase with new device production and some maintenance. Inventory is decreasing, and demand for exports has slowed. It is recommended to close short positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract price fell 1.35%. Raw material prices are falling, and the market is weak. It is recommended to close short positions gradually and consider an arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell 3%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing with the resumption of maintenance and new device production, and demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8][9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price fluctuated. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and Kazakhstan's non - reduction stance increased supply concerns. The price is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and OPEC meeting [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase with inventory accumulation, and demand is affected by downstream profit and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be short - sold in the medium term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell 1.5%. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price rose 1.2%. Some manufacturers' inventory is tight, and the price is rising. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On May 28th, the four major A-share stock indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to 3339.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26% to 10003.27 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.31% to 1985.38 points, and the STAR 50 Index slipped 0.23% to 970.64 points. Market trading volume was 1.0339 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In the industry sectors, textile and apparel (+1.17%), environmental protection (+0.89%), and coal (+0.74%) led the gains, while basic chemicals (-0.79%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.78%), and national defense and military industry (-0.72%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,750/181/3,477 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -5.8 billion, -12.8 billion, 2.1 billion, and 16.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -2.9 billion, -1 billion, +2.5 billion, and +1.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On May 28th, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the actively traded contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.376, unchanged from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.497, also unchanged; the ten - year bond was 1.618, down 0.7 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.985, down 0.1 bps [3]. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is speculated that the deep discount of small - cap stock indices recently is due to the expansion of neutral product scale since this year. As the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high, so the deep discount may continue. It is recommended to go long on the economy, and it is advisable to allocate IF, IC, IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [2]. - For treasury bond futures, although the current spot bonds show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, this pattern is expected to change in the future. The government bond net supply rhythm may slow down in June, the long - term liability cost of insurance may be lowered in July, and the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, which may increase the demand for bond market allocation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and short in the long - term, buy T and TL contracts on dips in the short - term, and hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and basis. For example, for IC2506, the price change was -0.26%, the current price was 5568.0 points, and the basis was 69.2 points [5]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table presents the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including code, name, price changes, trading volume, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rates. For instance, for TS2506, the price change was -0.01%, the current price was 102.2 points, and the net basis was 0.0 [6]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities has declined, while the real estate market has improved [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged. Gold is recommended to be bought at an opportune time, and silver is advised to be shorted on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio at an appropriate time [1]. - **Aluminum**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has rebounded, and inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals support the aluminum price, which is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the supply pressure has caused the futures price to fall. However, the Guinean mining policy is still highly uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Zinc**: The long - short forces are deadlocked, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - guidance and consumption sustainability [3]. - **Lead**: The contradiction between raw material supply and consumption intensifies, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate within a small range. Interval operation is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The downward driving force is limited, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 8000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday supply changes [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The near - month supply - demand surplus has eased, but the surplus pattern remains. It is recommended to hold short positions or short the far - month contracts on rallies [3][4]. - **Multi - Crystal Silicon**: After the 06 - contract delivery month, consider shorting the 07 - contract on rebounds. When the 06 - 07 spread breaks through the previous high, consider closing long - spread positions [4]. - **Rebar**: It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the rebar 2510 contract [5]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate, and the domestic soybean market will follow the international market in the medium term. Attention should be paid to trade policies and US soybean yields [7]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [7]. - **Sugar**: The market outlook is bearish [7]. - **Cotton**: An interval - oscillation strategy is recommended [7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a seasonally weak stage, but the decline is not smooth. Attention should be paid to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Pigs**: The futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate downward [7]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4850 [9]. - **PTA**: Buy PX after a pull - back, and short the PTA processing margin on rallies [9]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to close short positions in batches and wait and see, and consider a long - RU short - NR arbitrage [10]. - **PP**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - **MEG**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but be cautious when going long [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The core of trading depends on the US - Iran negotiation and the OPEC meeting. If OPEC continues to increase production and the US and Iran reach an agreement, the oil price may fall further [10]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, the market will fluctuate, and in the medium term, short on rallies [10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold fell below $3300 per ounce [1]. - **News**: EU - US trade negotiations have optimistic sentiment, the "TACO" trading is popular, OPEC + will discuss production increase in July, and the Fed is more cautious about the economic outlook [1]. - **Economic Data**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.236 million barrels in the week of May 23, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index in May was - 9 [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic gold ETF had a small outflow, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.02 tons, and some silver inventories changed [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy gold at an opportune time, short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.72% to 20,185 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity, and the aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has rebounded, and inventory continues to decline, supporting the price. It is expected to be volatile [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 0.89% to 2991 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants resumed production, and new production capacity was released, with a slight increase in operating capacity [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the supply pressure has caused the futures price to fall. The Guinean mining policy is uncertain [3]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract decreased by 0.38% to 22,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc mining resources are relatively abundant, and the supply is relatively loose. The apparent consumption shows resilience [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The long - short forces are deadlocked, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract decreased by 0.62% to 16,700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of recycled lead is strongly supported, the supply of primary lead is stable, and the lead consumption is weak [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a small range, and interval operation is recommended [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 07 contract closed at 7340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand is weak. The market is pessimistic about continuous inventory reduction [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 8000 yuan. Wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday supply [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main 2507 contract closed at 60,380 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is in surplus, the production decreased by 3.23% week - on - week, the demand growth is lower than expected, and the inventory is high with a slight reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month surplus has eased, but the surplus pattern remains. Hold short positions or short far - month contracts on rallies [3][4]. Multi - Crystal Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 07 contract closed at 35,100 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is relatively stable, the inventory has decreased, and the demand in the downstream is weak [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the 06 - contract delivery month, consider shorting the 07 - contract on rebounds, and close long - spread positions when the spread breaks through the previous high [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2510 contract closed at 2957 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for building materials decreased, and the production increased slightly. The inventory reduction slowed down [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the 2510 contract [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract closed at 699.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply from Australia increased, and that from Brazil decreased. The supply - demand is neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract closed at 765 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production decreased slightly, the first round of price cuts has been implemented, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell overnight due to accelerated sowing [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply in South America is loose in the near term, and the US soybean sowing is going smoothly in the long term. The demand in South America is dominant in the short term, and the US soybean demand is seasonally weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans will fluctuate, and the domestic market will follow the international market in the medium term [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the deep - processing corn price fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand is tightening marginally, the substitution imports are expected to decrease, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [7]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5786 yuan/ton, down 0.4% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar market is affected by imports [7]. - **Operation Strategy**: The market outlook is bearish [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US cotton price fell overnight, and the domestic cotton price fluctuated narrowly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton budding rate in the US is behind, and the domestic textile enterprise inventory has increased slightly [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use an interval - oscillation strategy [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market continued to rebound, with both supply and demand increasing [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in the producing areas is seasonally increasing, and the export has improved [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is in a seasonally weak stage, and attention should be paid to production and policies [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract continued to decline, and the spot price rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost provides support [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, with the near - term strong and the far - term weak, and the spot price mostly fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the cost is low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate downward [7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The price remained at a high level with fluctuations [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Extreme weather affected apple fruiting, the inventory is low, and the market is worried about the new - season output [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and see [8]. Energy Chemical LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the basis weakened, and the import window was closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, the import is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [9]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract closed at 4704 yuan/ton, down 1.3%, and the trading was light [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the inventory reduction has slowed down, and the export demand has eased [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4850 [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX price is 836 US dollars per ton, and the PTA spot price is 4880 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX supply is at a neutral level, the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term, and the polyester industry has some changes [9]. - **Trading Dimension**: Buy PX after a pull - back, and short the PTA processing margin on rallies [9]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The RU2509 contract fell by 4.36% to 13,805 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The raw material price is slightly loose, the spot buying sentiment is strong, and the inventory has changed [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions in batches and wait and see, and consider a long - RU short - NR arbitrage [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the basis was stable, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, the export window is open, and the downstream demand has different performances [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, short the far - month contracts on rallies [10]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price is 4494 yuan/ton, and the basis is 144 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is at a medium - low level, the inventory is at a medium - low level, and the polyester industry has some changes [10]. - **Trading Dimension**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but be cautious when going long [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly [10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC did not adjust production in July, and the US - Iran situation affects the oil price [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The core depends on the US - Iran negotiation and the OPEC meeting. If OPEC continues to increase production and the US and Iran reach an agreement, the oil price may fall further [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the basis was strong [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and downstream inventories are expected to accumulate slightly, and the downstream demand is affected by the US - China tariff situation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market will fluctuate, and in the medium term, short on rallies [10][11].

1. Market Performance and Analysis of Various Commodities 1.1 Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract decreased by 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 270 yuan/ton and an LME price of $2,444.5/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity, while the aluminum product开工率 decreased slightly. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a volatile trend, and the recommended operation is to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.37% to 3,018 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 245 yuan/ton. Some alumina plants have resumed production, and new production capacity has been released, leading to a slight increase in operating capacity. The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the market's expectation of the resumption of some alumina production capacity has increased, causing the futures price to fall. However, the Guinean mining policy remains highly uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract increased by 0.80% to 22,585 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from May 22. The zinc industry in Guangxi has carried out a ten - year back - checking special action, but currently, there is no actual impact. The import volume of zinc concentrates in April exceeded expectations, and smelters' raw material inventories are high. The supply side is relatively loose, and apparent consumption shows resilience. Overall, the long and short positions are in a stalemate, and the zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract increased by 0.15% to 16,805 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from May 22. The new production capacity of recycled lead is being put into operation and resumed, increasing the demand for waste materials. The production of primary lead is relatively stable, and the supply in the spot market is loose. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak. The contradiction between raw material supply and consumption has intensified, and the lead price is expected to maintain a small - range volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within the range [1][2]. 1.2 Industrial Silicon The main 07 contract closed at 7,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The supply side has not shown a significant contraction, and there is a high inventory pressure. The demand for polysilicon may decline in May, and the organic silicon industry has limited procurement of upstream products. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the supply changes after the festival. For speculative purposes, one can wait for the market to rebound and then short the 07 contract or consider shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract [2]. 1.3 Lithium Carbonate The main 2507 contract closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.36% from the previous trading day. In May, the supply was still in an oversupply situation, with a decrease in weekly production and a slower - than - expected growth in demand. Although the sales of new energy vehicles in May have recovered, the growth rate is still gentle. The social inventory is high but shows a slight decline. It is recommended to continue holding short positions or shorting far - month contracts on rallies [2]. 1.4 Polysilicon The main 07 contract closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 405 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply side's weekly production has been relatively stable in the past three weeks, and the production in May may decline compared to April. The inventory has decreased, but it is still relatively high. The demand side shows that the price of the component link has stopped falling, while the prices of the silicon wafer and battery cell links are still falling. It is expected that the production in June will decline by 5% - 7%. After the festival, the 06 - 07 contract may trade on the issue of warehouse receipts. After the warehouse receipt game is close to the end, one can consider shorting on the rebound of the 07 contract [2]. 1.5 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The inventory of building materials in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 2.9% to 4.03 million tons, and the de - stocking margin has significantly slowed down. The supply - demand relationship of steel has weakened marginally but is in line with the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the 2510 contract of rebar [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 696.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australian iron ore to China increased, while that from Brazil decreased. Steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed, and future production will be mainly stable. The supply side is in line with seasonal rules, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 798 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The iron water production has decreased, and steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and the second round has been proposed. The overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 1.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly. The supply side shows that South America is currently supplying abundantly in the near - term, and the sowing of new - crop US soybeans is progressing smoothly. The demand side is mainly dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak. The US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driver lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean arrival volume will be high later, but the short - term demand for soybean meal is good, driving a rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to future trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn fluctuated within a narrow range, and the price of deep - processed corn slightly decreased. The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. With farmers' grain sales basically completed, the bargaining power of channels has increased. The import volume of substitutes is expected to decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The futures price has strong support near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The market expects an enhanced oversupply pattern in the global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. In May, the domestic market has entered the pure sales period. With the control of syrup and premixed powder and low inventory, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, following the trend of raw sugar. Recently, the profit of out - of - quota imports has opened, and domestic sugar mills' point - price operations will put pressure on far - month contracts. It is expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [5]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price weakened. As of May 25, the planting rate of new - crop US cotton was 52%, lower than the same period last year. The production in India in the 24/25 season decreased by 10.4% year - on - year. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to fluctuate. After the macro - level disturbances decreased, the market focus returned to the fundamentals. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded yesterday. The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the estimated production in Malaysia from May 1 - 20 increased by 3.5% month - on - month. The demand side shows that the export has improved month - on - month. Although it is in the seasonal weak stage, there is no major contradiction. It is necessary to pay attention to future production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline, while the spot price rose. The farming is in a loss state, and the culling of old hens is expected to increase temporarily. However, the supply remains high, and with low vegetable prices and unfavorable storage conditions due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the supply is stronger than the demand. With cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract of pigs fell, while the spot price rose. The supply of pigs continues to increase. With the narrowing of the price difference between standard and fattened pigs and rising temperatures, farmers' willingness to hold and fatten pigs has decreased, and they may gradually reduce the weight of pigs for sale. The utilization rate of pigsties has reached a high level, and the role of secondary fattening in boosting pig prices will gradually weaken. High - temperature weather has led to a seasonal decrease in pork consumption. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the cost is low, so the pig price is expected to decline with fluctuations [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed at 7,583 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%. Due to the impact of extreme weather such as hot and dry winds and late frosts, the fruit - setting in apple - producing areas, especially in Shaanxi, has become a problem, raising concerns about the new - crop apple yield. With low current inventory and expected yield reduction, the apple price has temporarily remained at a high - level volatile state. The market has high expectations for the price of new - crop Gala apples, which supports the price of late - maturing Fuji apples. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the fruit - bagging verification at the end of May and future apple consumption [6]. 1.7 Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fluctuated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot in North China was 7,060 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis weakened. New production facilities have been put into operation one after another, and the supply from domestic sources has increased. The import window has closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films has entered the off - season, and other demands remain stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual situation of export - rush after the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In the short - term, it is mainly volatile, and in the long - term, as new production facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [7][8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4,790 yuan, a decrease of 0.3%. The PVC spot price dropped by about 50 yuan, and the volume of spot - futures point - price transactions increased. The supply side is a combination of maintenance and new - facility commissioning, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The inventory de - stocking has slowed down. It is recommended to gradually exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,850 [8]. - **PTA**: The CFR China price of PX is $840/ton, equivalent to 6,959 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 480 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 178 yuan/ton. The supply of PX has increased to a neutral level, and the import supply remains low. The supply of PTA has increased marginally, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is still large. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and the polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. PX and PTA will continue to see inventory reduction. For PX, one can pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback, and for PTA, it is advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [8]. - **Rubber**: The main 2509 contract of natural rubber closed at 14,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87%. The raw material prices have slightly loosened, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly. The continuous large - scale cancellation of 20 - rubber warehouse receipts has led to a significant increase in the NR price, driving up the RU price. The fundamental situation is weak, and the expected increase in supply during the peak season suppresses the price. The RU price lacks upward driving force but has strong support around 14,000 yuan, and it is expected to enter a platform period. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Methanol**: The closing price of the methanol 2509 contract decreased by 0.72% to 2,208 yuan/ton, hitting a new low of 2,181 yuan. The coal price has continued to decline, providing weak cost support for methanol. The supply side has seen multiple large - scale domestic methanol plants restart, increasing the supply pressure. The overseas Iranian plants have all restarted, and the import volume is expected to gradually recover. The demand side shows that the olefin sector has been weak this year, and traditional demand has been lackluster after the May Day holiday. The inventory in coastal areas has increased. It is expected that the supply will be stronger than the demand in the short - term, and the methanol price will be weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [8][9]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,028 yuan, an increase of 0.3%. There are rumors that a production line in Hubei may stop production due to excessive petroleum - coke emissions, leading to a small - scale rebound in the market. The supply is rigid, and the daily melting volume is 157,500 tons. The inventory is at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing enterprises' operating rate is lower than in previous years. The glass price is likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9]. - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly yesterday. The spot price of PP in East China was 7,030 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable. The short - term maintenance of production facilities is gradually ending, and new facilities are being commissioned, leading to an increase in domestic supply. The export window has opened, and the downstream home - appliance production plan for May is still good, while the automobile production plan is average. In the short - term, the supply and demand will both increase, and the market will be mainly volatile and slightly weak. In the long - term, as new facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,512 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 148 yuan/ton. The supply is at a moderately low level. Overseas, some plants are scheduled for restart or maintenance. The inventory in East China ports has decreased to around 680,000 tons. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. The short - term supply and demand situation of MEG shows significant inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong, but the valuation has reached a high level, so it is advisable to be cautious when going long [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price slightly declined yesterday. The overall supply pressure in the crude oil market is large, and the probability of oversupply is high. There are many potential negative factors for crude oil, such as the return of Iranian supply, recession risks, and the risk of OPEC+ continuing to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. It is recommended to use crude oil as a short - position allocation [9][10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The inventory of pure benzene is at a normal level and is expected to slightly increase in June, while the styrene inventory is at a low level and is also expected to slightly increase in June. The downstream is in a loss state, and the finished - product inventory is being reduced. The home - appliance production plan for May is acceptable. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations will lead to an increase in export - rush demand. In the short - term, the market will be mainly volatile, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short on rallies [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,232 yuan, a decrease of 0.7%. The supply side features a combination

2025年05月27日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 昨日贵金属市场震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价站暂时受制于 3350 美元/盎司。 | | 属 | 【消息面】美欧首脑首度通话，特朗普将对欧加税时间从 6 月 1 日延至 7 月 9 日，欧盟承诺"迅速果断"推 | | | 进谈判；日本据称计划拿 LNG 项目+造船技术换美国关税让步，力争 6 月中达成协议；明尼阿波利斯联储主 | | | 席 Neel Kashkari 表示，美国经济面临的最大风险是重大新政策的阴霾，包括贸易壁垒和移民政策，并不确定 | | | 到 9 月份时形式会足够清晰；欧洲央行行长拉加德：欧元可能成为美元的替代，近期全球动荡为"欧元全球 | | | 化时刻"创造契机。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | OPEC+或计划连续第三个月发动 41.1 万桶/日的大规模增产；日本 30 年期和 40 年期收益率双双下跌 7 个基 | | | 点； | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日小幅流出，COM ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Regarding stock index futures, it is speculated that the deep discount of small - cap stock indexes recently is due to the scale expansion of neutral products this year. With the bond bull market not restarted, the high proportion of short positions in neutral products may keep the deep discount. The report maintains the judgment of being bullish on the economy, recommends buying IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips, and advises caution with near - month contracts of IC and IM due to the potential decline risk of micro - cap stocks [3]. - For treasury bond futures, although the current situation of bond spot market shows strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to change. Factors include the increase in government bond maturity in June, the possible reduction of long - term liability costs of insurance in July, and the return of domestic market risk preference to a defensive style. It is suggested to take a short - term long and medium - to - long - term short strategy, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 26, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% to 3346.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.41% to 10091.16 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.8% to 2005.26 points, while the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose 0.17% to 982.26 points. Market trading volume was 1.0339 trillion yuan, a decrease of 148.7 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, media, computer, and environmental protection led the gains, while automobile, pharmaceutical biology, and comprehensive sectors led the losses [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 195.39, 153.86, 68.31, and 47.22 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 20.77%, - 17.4%, - 11.34%, and - 11.21%. The three - year historical quantiles were 3%, 3%, 2%, and 8% respectively, indicating that the futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 26, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond decreased by 173 bps to 1.356, the five - year bond by 373 bps to 1.488, the ten - year bond remained flat at 1.638, and the thirty - year bond decreased by 79 bps to 1.968 [3]. - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided. The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 24.7 billion yuan [4]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined, while the real estate prosperity increased [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the tariff talk results exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid repair of market risk appetite. The foreign trade situation and fiscal progress in Q2 are crucial. It's recommended to go long on IH and IF at low levels as the valuation of the broader market index is low, but there is a concentrated position risk in micro - cap stock index short positions [1] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term capital market is neutral to loose recently. After the "double cut", the interest rate curve tends to flatten. In the short term, treasury bond prices are at a high level and are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect treasury bond futures prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 23, the A - share four major stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to 3348.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to 10132.41 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.18% to 2021.5 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.02% to 980.58 points. Market trading volume was 1182.6 billion yuan, an increase of 42.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, automobiles (+0.42%), pharmaceutical biology (+0.42%), and basic chemicals (+0.05%) led the gains; computers (-1.97%), composites (-1.84%), and media (-1.79%) led the losses [1] - In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1106, 104, and 4200 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 7.6 billion, - 15.6 billion, - 3.6 billion, and +26.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +2.9 billion, - 0.8 billion, - 6 billion, and +3.9 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 209.68, 166.04, 73.47, and 47.05 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 21.88%, - 18.36%, - 11.83%, and - 10.84% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 2%, 2%, 2%, and 9% respectively [1] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 23, treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.371, a decrease of 266 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.523, a decrease of 164 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.639, an increase of 292 bps; the thirty - year bond was 1.975, a decrease of 24 bps [2] - In the open - market operations, the central bank's currency injection was 142.5 billion yuan, and currency withdrawal was 106.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 36 billion yuan [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month's import and export and social activity sentiment declined, while real - estate sentiment increased [10]