2025年05月26日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周五夜盘铜价偏强运行。基本面：美元指数走弱，紫金卡莫阿项目暂停部分井下作业。铜矿紧张 | | | | 铜 | 格局延续，周度加工费-44 美金。下游开工率环比略走弱，精废价差 860 元左右。交易策略：短期宏观压力存 | | | | | 在，供需依旧偏紧，铜价预期依然区间震荡。风险提示：全球流动性冲击，全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：周五电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.56%，收于 20155 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 325 | | 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2466 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | | | | | | 铝价有支撑，预计铝价维持震荡走势。 | | | | | 操作建议：观望。 | | | | | 市场表现：周五氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日-1.46 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - **Stock Market**: On May 22, the four major A-share stock indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.22% to 3380.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.72% to 10219.62 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.96% to 2045.57 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index declined 0.48% to 990.71 points. Market turnover was 1.1397 trillion yuan, a decrease of 74.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The banking, media, and household appliance sectors led the gains, while the beauty care, social services, and basic chemicals sectors led the losses [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 206.7, 165.28, 72.67, and 48.63 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -20.78%, -17.67%, -11.32%, and -10.85%. The three-year historical quantiles were 3%, 2%, 2%, and 9% respectively, indicating that the futures-spot price difference remained at a low level [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures declined on May 22. The implied yields of the active contracts of two-year, five-year, ten-year, and thirty-year treasury bond futures were 1.399, 1.539, 1.608, and 1.979 respectively, with changes of +53bps, +23bps, -7bps, and +10bps from the previous day [3]. 2. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: The outcome of the tariff talks exceeded expectations, and market risk appetite quickly recovered. In the future, the foreign trade situation and fiscal progress in the second quarter are crucial. It is recommended to go long on IH and IF at low prices. However, micro-cap stocks face concentrated position risks [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, the short-end funding situation is neutral. After the tariff issue is resolved, treasury bonds return to pricing based on the economic fundamentals. In the short term, treasury bond prices have reached a high level and are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal and monetary policies will affect the price trend of treasury bond futures [3]. 3. Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined this week [11]. 4. Tables and Figures - **Table 1**: Provides detailed performance data of stock index futures and spot markets, including codes, names, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and basis information [6]. - **Table 2**: Presents performance data of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including codes, names, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, net basis, and implied yields of CTD bonds [7]. - **Table 3**: Shows the changes in short-term funding rates, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one-week, and DR007 [11]. - **Figure 1**: Displays the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [9]. - **Figure 2**: Tracks domestic meso-level data, including manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and imports and exports [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market conditions of various commodities are complex and diverse, with different trends and influencing factors in different sectors. For example, in the base metals market, aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, while alumina shows a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. In the energy and chemical market, the supply - demand relationship and price trends of different products vary, and factors such as new device production, downstream demand, and international policies have significant impacts on prices [1][6]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of different products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, weather, and trade policies. For example, the price of soybeans is affected by South American and American production and trade policies, and the price of corn is expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - In the shipping market, the Geneva Conference has brought changes to the shipping market, with different trends in the US and European routes, and the short - term EC is expected to be strong, but there are risks of insufficient demand [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.40% to 20,270 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 260 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,458 US dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the actual consumption of aluminum is weakening. Although the tariff issue has eased, it takes time to affect physical demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 0.92% to 3,216 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 105 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had more phased maintenance and production cuts, and the operating capacity decreased. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, alumina shows a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern due to Guinea's policy disturbances. It is recommended to buy call options for the near - term contract. If holding spot or futures long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options to reduce the premium cost [1]. Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract decreased by 0.55% to 22,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 330 yuan/ton Back, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 28.9 US dollars/ton Con. The social inventory decreased by 0.34 tons to 8.04 tons from May 19th to May 22nd [1]. - Fundamentals: The Russian Longxing Mine may face shutdown risks in June. Imported zinc ingots are arriving in China, but the import volume may be less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and the social inventory is increasing [1]. - Trading strategy: In the future, as some smelters end their maintenance and imported zinc ingots arrive, zinc prices may fall due to insufficient consumption support [1]. Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract decreased by 1.36% to 16,670 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 0 yuan/ton Con, and the LME 0 - 3 month spread was 26.12 US dollars/ton Con. The social inventory decreased by 0.88 tons to 5.03 tons from May 19th to May 22nd [1]. - Fundamentals: The production of primary lead enterprises was relatively stable, and the inventory of factories decreased. The loss of secondary lead was slightly repaired, and the discount of secondary refined lead may increase. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises changed little, and the spot market transaction was difficult to improve significantly [1]. - Trading strategy: After the consumption enters the off - season, terminal orders are difficult to improve. It is recommended to buy when the price falls to the low point of the range [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The 2507 contract closed at 7,880 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The position decreased by 9,112 lots to 183,700 lots [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The resumption of production in Sichuan is obvious, and there are production cuts in Xinjiang. The demand for polysilicon has no increase, and the organic silicon industry may enter the annual maintenance stage [2]. - Trading strategy: Since the industry has not implemented effective and continuous production cuts, it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main 2507 contract closed at 62,140 yuan/ton, up 1.70% [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand surplus situation has been alleviated but still exists. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.23% to 16,093 tons, and the estimated monthly output in May decreased by 2.27% to 72,134 tons. The demand growth is lower than expected, and the social inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the supply - demand surplus is alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate or rebound slightly. In the long - term, the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The PS2507 contract closed at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan from the previous day. The position increased by 3,806 lots to 77,300 lots, and the warehouse receipt increased by 10 lots to 460 lots [2]. - Fundamentals: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The supply - side production cut rumors need to be confirmed. In the long - term, the demand may decline, and the price center may move down [2]. - Trading strategy: If there is no further production cut, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose without a strong driving force [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply in South America is loose in the near - term, and the sowing of new US soybeans is going smoothly. The demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand of US soybeans is seasonally weak [3]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driving force lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean price may rebound due to customs clearance disturbances and follow the international market in the medium - term [3]. Corn - Market performance: The corn 2507 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the price of deep - processed corn decreased [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. The grain rights have transferred to channels, and the import of substitutes is expected to decrease. The futures price has fallen to a level with cost - performance compared to wheat and is expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is supported near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [3]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,835 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was - 30 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season. The domestic sugar market is in the pure sales period, and the inventory is low. The import profit has opened, and the domestic sugar mills' pricing may put pressure on the far - month contracts [4]. - Trading strategy: The price may rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [4]. Cotton - Market performance: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price continued to weaken. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to rise [4]. - Fundamentals: The national commercial cotton inventory decreased by 318,600 tons to 3.834 million tons from the end of April to May 15th, a decrease of 7.67% [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [4]. Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market fell yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply in the production area is in the seasonal increase period, and the export has improved month - on - month. The ITS shows that the export from May 1st to 20th increased by 5.3% month - on - month [4]. - Trading strategy: The market is in a weak seasonal stage but not in a clear trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the production in the production area and the biodiesel policy [4]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg 2506 contract and the egg spot price both fell [4]. - Fundamentals: The breeding is in a loss state, and the number of old hens to be culled is expected to increase. The supply remains high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate due to cost support [4]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate due to sufficient supply and cost support [4]. Hogs - Market performance: The hog 2509 contract and the hog spot price both fell [4]. - Fundamentals: The hog supply continues to increase, the farmers' intention to hold and fatten hogs decreases, and the hog price is expected to fall gradually due to the increase in supply and the off - season demand [4]. - Trading strategy: The hog price is expected to decline gradually, and it is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' slaughter rhythm and the second - fattening trend [4]. Apples - Market performance: The price of apples is affected by extreme weather, and the market is worried about the new - season production [4]. - Fundamentals: The new - season apple production in the main production areas, especially in Shaanxi, is affected by hot and dry winds and cold snaps, and the fruit - setting is a problem. The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to remain high in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the bagging situation at the end of May and the apple consumption [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The North China low - price spot was 7,220 yuan/ton, the 09 basis was 40 yuan higher than the futures price, and the basis weakened [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing as new devices are put into production, and the import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and other demands are stable. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive, and attention should be paid to the export situation [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser [6]. PTA - Market performance: The PXCFR China price was 823 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 6,821 yuan/ton in RMB. The PTA East China spot price was 4,860 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 127 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX is low, and the supply of PTA is increasing. The polyester load is at a historical high, and the inventory is at a historical low. The polyester factories have announced production cut plans [6]. - Trading strategy: The PX and PTA are in a de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to take profits on long - short spreads and be cautious about unilateral trading. Pay attention to the short - position opportunities for far - month PTA [6]. Rubber - Market performance: The main RU2509 contract fell 0.3% to 14,810 yuan/ton on Thursday [6]. - Fundamentals: The price of Thai glue remained unchanged, and the price of cup glue decreased. The spot trading was average. The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Methanol - Market performance: The methanol 2509 contract closed at 2,241 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous day [6]. - Fundamentals: The coal price is falling, and the cost support is weak. The domestic methanol production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly, and the import is expected to recover. The demand from the olefin sector is weak, and the traditional demand is stable but has passed the peak season. The coastal inventory is at a low level but is increasing [6][7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adopt a short - position strategy for the 09 contract [7]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The East China PP spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, the 09 basis was 120 yuan higher than the futures price, and the basis was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing as the short - term maintenance is ending, new devices are put into production, and the import of LPG and the operation of PDH devices are normalizing. The demand from downstream industries such as home appliances and automobiles is affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser [7]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price was 4,501 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 96 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply has decreased due to unexpected device maintenance, and the import is expected to be normal. The polyester load is at a historical high, and the inventory is at a historical low. The polyester factories have announced production cut plans [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but it is recommended to be cautious about long positions as the valuation is high [7]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price fell again yesterday. The focus of trading is on the OPEC+ meeting on June 1st and the fifth - round negotiation between the US and Iran tonight [7]. - Fundamentals: If OPEC+ decides to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day, the oil price may fall; if the production increase stops, the oil price may rebound. If the US - Iran negotiation fails, the oil price may rise; if an agreement is reached, the Iranian production may increase by 500,000 barrels per day, which is negative for the oil price [7]. Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The main contract fell slightly yesterday. The East China spot price was 7,700 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene is normal and is expected to increase slightly in May. The inventory of styrene is low and is expected to change from a slight increase to a slight decrease in May. The downstream profit is in a loss state, and the inventory of finished products is decreasing. The home appliance production in May is okay, and the export of plastic products and home appliances may accelerate due to the Sino - US tariff negotiation [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and it is recommended to conduct long - short spreads on the monthly difference [7]. Shipping European Line Container Shipping - Market performance: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract fell 0.95%. Most shipowners announced to increase the European line freight rate on June 1st [8]. - Fundamentals: The US - China tariff reduction has led to an increase in the US - line cargo volume, but the European - line cargo volume is still moderate. The shipowners will adjust the US - line supply, and new large - scale European - line ships are still being launched [8]. - Trading strategy: The short - term EC is expected to be strong, but it is necessary to prevent the freight rate from not meeting expectations due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to conduct long - short spreads for the 06 contract [8].

金融研究 2025年5月22日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 21 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.21%，报收 3387.57 点；深成 指上涨 0.44%，报收 10294.22 点；创业板指上涨 0.83%，报收 2065.39 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.22%， 报收 995.49 点。市场成交 12,144 亿元，较前日增加 31 亿元。行业板块方面，煤炭(+2.55%)，有色 金属(+2.05%)，电力设备(+1.11%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-1.09%)，电子(-0.93%)，传媒(-0.87%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IH>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,615/196/3,599。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-82、-147、35、195 亿元，分别变动-128、-81、+72、+138 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 222.78、178.52、75.78 与 46.03 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-21.62%、-18.46%、-11.52%与-10.04%，三 ...

2025年05月22日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 昨日贵金属市场走强，以伦敦金计价的国际金价站上 3300 美元/盎司。 | | 属 | 【消息面】美国总统特朗普表示庞大的减税方案接近敲定；比特币涨破 10.9 万美元关口，突破其今年 1 月 20 | | | 日特朗普就职时创下的纪录高点；美国财政部拍卖 160 亿美元的 20 年期国债，拍卖惨淡，中标利率站上 5%， | | | 其中间接认购比例为 69.02%，虽然低于上月的 70.7%，但仍高于 67.2%的近期均值；欧盟抛出新的方案，逐 | | | 步将非敏感农产品和工业品的关税降至零、在能源、AI 和数字连接领域的互惠投资与战略采购计划，希望以 | | | 此促成贸易协议，试图在满足美方关切与保护自身利益间取得平衡。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 美国零售巨头塔吉特第一季度销售大幅下滑 2.8%至 238.5 亿美元，可比销售下降 3.8%； | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日继续流出，COM ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market risk preference has quickly recovered due to the better - than - expected results of the tariff talks. The foreign trade situation and fiscal progress in the second quarter are crucial. The market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives, and it is recommended to buy stock index futures at low prices. Short - term IC and IM have more elasticity, while medium - to - long - term IH and IF have more attractive valuations [2][3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the tariff issue is resolved, treasury bonds return to economic fundamental pricing. In the short term, treasury bond prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of treasury bond futures [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Stock Index Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 20, A - share four major stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 3380.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.77% to 10249.17 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 2048.46 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.24% to 997.68 points. Market trading volume was 1211.2 billion yuan, an increase of 92.3 billion yuan from the previous day. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IF>IC>IH. The numbers of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 3836, 199, and 1376 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 46, - 66, - 38, and 57 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +84, +20, - 29, and - 76 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 220.02, 173.97, 72.57, and 45.63 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 20.81%, - 17.6%, - 10.82%, and - 9.77% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 3%, 2%, 3%, and 11% respectively. The futures - spot price difference was still at a low level [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 20, most treasury bond futures fell. The 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.03% to 102.36 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to 105.96 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03% to 108.84 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.03% to 119.26 points [3]. - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 357 billion yuan and withdrew 180 billion yuan, with a net injection of 177 billion yuan. The short - term capital market was neutral recently. In the short term, treasury bond prices have reached a high level and are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price trend of long - term treasury bonds will be affected by fiscal/monetary policies [4]. 3.3 Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of imports, exports, and social activities has declined this week [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex trend, with different metals, industrial products, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping sectors having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by macro - policies and geopolitical events, while agricultural products are influenced by factors such as weather, trade policies, and seasonal demand [1][5][7]. Summary by Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the rise in gold and oil prices also boosts copper prices. The domestic back is still strong, indicating tightness in the near - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed down 0.17% at 20,075 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is weakening. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 0.22% at 3,134 yuan/ton. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. It shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and corresponding option strategies and short - selling operations are recommended [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract of zinc closed down 0.09% at 22,435 yuan/ton. There is a risk of mine shutdown, and the actual import volume may be lower than expected. Consumption is in the off - season, and zinc prices may fall [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract of lead closed down 0.09% at 16,845 yuan/ton. Consumption is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to fall in the short term and maintain range - bound in the medium term [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2507 contract of industrial silicon hit a new low, closing at 7,940 yuan. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate closed down 0.88% at 60,860 yuan/ton. The supply is in excess, and the demand growth is lower than expected. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, and relevant trading strategies are recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the inventory is decreasing rapidly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,061 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The supply - demand of steel is balanced, but the macro - sentiment is deteriorating. It is recommended to close short positions and conduct relevant arbitrage operations [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 724.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan. The supply - demand is neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to close short positions and try long positions [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 844.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean rose overnight. The supply in South America is loose in the near - term, and the sowing of new US soybeans is going well. The domestic soybean is weak in the short term and will follow the international market in the medium term [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn is running weakly. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the short - term spot sentiment may cool down. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,851 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season. It is expected to rebound in the short term and be bearish in the future [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded, and the domestic cotton price also recovered. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand is improving. It is in a weak seasonal stage with no major contradictions [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2507 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost provides support. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures price is expected to decline [6]. - **Apples**: The main apple contract closed at 7,784 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The new - season apple production may be affected by weather, and the market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the off - season and trade policies. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC closed at 4,937 yuan, down 0.3%. The supply is large, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is low, and the PTA supply is increasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking on long - short spreads and be cautious about unilateral trading [7]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,018 yuan, up 0.2%. The supply is rigid, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,250 [7]. - **PP**: The main PP contract fluctuated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a medium level, and the inventory is decreasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. The price is expected to be strong, but caution is needed for long positions [8]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and long - short spreads are recommended. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be boosted by trade policies [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,277 yuan, down 0.4%. The supply is decreasing due to maintenance, and the demand from photovoltaic glass is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1,600 [8]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract rose 1.32%. After the Geneva meeting, tariffs were reduced, and most shipowners announced a price increase on June 1. The demand in the US line has recovered, but the European line is still moderate. The short - term EC is expected to fluctuate strongly, and 8 - 10 long - short spreads are recommended, with caution for the 06 contract [9][10].

金融研究 2025年5月20日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 19 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0%，报收 3367.58 点；深成指 下跌 0.08%，报收 10171.09 点；创业板指下跌 0.33%，报收 2032.76 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0%， 报收 995.25 点。市场成交 11,189 亿元，较前日减少 52 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+1.99%)，环保 (+1.87%)，房地产(+1.75%)涨幅居前；食品饮料(-0.9%)，汽车(-0.33%)，银行(-0.32%)跌幅居前。 从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,560/160/1,691。沪深两市，机构、主力、大 户、散户全天资金分别净流入-38、-86、-9、133 亿元，分别变动-102、-46、+57、+91 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 203.34、168.99、73.95 与 43.29 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-18.95%、-16.78%、-10.84%与-9.09%，三年期历史分位数分别为 4%、3%、3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and different trends in the short and long term [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: After Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, the dollar weakened, supporting copper. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the spot market is also tight after the contract change. The domestic inventory increased by 0.72 million tons this week. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly, while the aluminum product start - up rate decreases slightly. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The alumina plant has more phased maintenance and production cuts, and the operating capacity decreases. The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production. It is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and it is recommended to buy call options [1]. - **Lead**: The consumption enters the off - season, and it is difficult to improve terminal orders. The lead price has reached a strong resistance level of 17,000 yuan, and it is expected to decline in the short term and oscillate within a range in the medium term [1]. - **Silicon**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The short - term production in Sichuan has recovered significantly, and there are production cuts in Xinjiang. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the demand growth rate falls short of expectations. The futures price is falling and the position reaches a new high. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting lightly later [2]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore at home and abroad is still tight. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The building materials market has weak supply and demand, but the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The plate demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to close short positions, hold short positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and try the reverse spread of rebar 7/10 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand are neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to close short positions and try long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The overall supply and demand are relatively loose, and the futures are in a premium structure. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating, and the domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and follow the international market in the medium term. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - **Corn**: The supply and demand are tightening marginally. The spot is weak, and the futures price oscillates and consolidates [5]. - **Sugar**: The market expects an enhanced supply - surplus pattern in the 25/26 sugar - making season. The futures price is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price rebounds slightly, and the domestic cotton price oscillates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production area is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the export improves. It is in a seasonal weak stage, and pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [5]. - **Eggs**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The supply increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - **Apples**: The new - season apple production is expected to decrease due to weather, and the price is at a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate strongly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies as the supply will be loose [7]. - **PVC**: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA maintain the de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the spread and be cautious about unilateral trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Affected by the rumored purchase and storage and slight de - stocking of inventory, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: It oscillates weakly, and it is recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the long term, it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **MEG**: The short - term supply and demand are de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about long positions [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The trading strategy is to short on rallies. Pay attention to the OPEC meeting and the US - Iran negotiation [9]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, it will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to do long - spread trading [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The number of maintenance increases, and the downstream demand weakens. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to stop falling and stabilize as the downstream alumina price rises [9].

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. - Report Type: Financial Futures Morning Report Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On May 16, the four major A-share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4% to close at 3367.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.07% to close at 10179.6 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.19% to close at 2039.45 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.57% to close at 995.24 points. Market turnover was 1.1241 trillion yuan, a decrease of 66.3 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, automobiles (+1.91%), machinery and equipment (+0.83%), and composites (+0.77%) led the gains; beauty care (-1.31%), non-bank finance (-1.21%), and food and beverage (-1.06%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3,000/225/2,186 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 6.4 billion, -4 billion, -6.6 billion, and 4.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +30.7 billion, +24.8 billion, -13.5 billion, and -42 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 134.32, 114.05, 43.09, and 21.46 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -22.13%, -19.95%, -11.08%, and -7.9% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 2%, 1%, 3%, and 13% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a relatively low level [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - On May 16, treasury bond futures fell across the board. The 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.02% to close at 102.38 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to close at 105.72 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.05% to close at 108.48 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.1% to close at 118.91 points [3] Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - The results of the tariff talks exceeded expectations, and the market risk appetite quickly recovered. In the future, the foreign trade situation and fiscal progress in the second quarter are crucial. Pay attention to the recovery of the foreign trade industry and the performance of the domestic demand sector [3]. - From four perspectives, the market is expected to stabilize. First, the RMB exchange rate has held the key level, and there is no need to worry about the drag of the exchange rate on the broader market index for the time being. Second, there are signs of capital inflows into popular industry indexes (such as embodied intelligence, AI, semiconductors, etc.), which may further promote the stabilization and recovery of small - cap indexes. Third, judging from the market performance after May Day in previous years, market trading volume will increase within 1 - 2 weeks, which may help the index start a new round of rise. Fourth, the valuation of the broader market index is at a relatively low level, while the fundamentals of the economic improvement remain stable. It is recommended to buy stock index futures on dips. In the short term, IC and IM have more elasticity, and in the medium and long term, IH and IF have more attractive valuations [3] Treasury Bond Futures - In the short term, the short - end liquidity is neutral. On the macro side, the results of the Sino - US tariff talks have eased more than expected. After the tariff issue is resolved, treasury bonds return to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, the treasury bond price has reached a high level and is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the trend of treasury bond futures prices. If the domestic economy improves further with policy support, the price of long - term treasury bonds may gradually cool down; otherwise, the long - term price may still remain in a high - level shock situation [4] Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities has declined this week [7] Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts (IC, IF, IH, IM) and their corresponding spot indexes, including price, change, trading volume, turnover, open interest, daily increase in open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [12] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including price, change, trading volume, turnover, open interest, daily increase in open interest, CTD bond, yield change, net basis, quantile, and IRR. It also shows the short - term capital interest rate market changes [14][17]