1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening of the US economy is persistent but has not fully reached a recession. Tariff policies are gradually showing their impact, which may accelerate the recession process. The Fed is still reluctant to cut interest rates, and its expected management direction is unclear, causing market concerns that the Fed will only act after a recession occurs, putting pressure on copper prices from a valuation perspective. In China, policy stimulus supports domestic demand [5][14][82]. - The main logic at the industrial level is whether smelting production cuts actually occur. Under the triple pressure of eroded profits, tight ore supply, and poor copper price performance, smelting difficulties are more severe than last year. Prices may fall to eliminate some production capacity, but copper prices will regain price elasticity after supply contraction [5][82]. - Before the holiday, driven by strong domestic buying sentiment, copper prices filled some gaps and maintained a relatively strong oscillating trend. However, due to continuous capital outflows from the market, the rebound space may be limited, with resistance seen at the 77,500 yuan level. After the holiday, copper prices may decline. Attention should be paid to changes in the US economy. The macro - logic has shifted, and recession trading has inertia, but there is still room for short - to medium - term games. The main price range after the holiday is expected to be between 70,000 and 77,000 yuan. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the price decline after the US economy reaches an inflection point [5][82]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level - **PMI of Major Economies**: In April, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded. The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7%, up 0.1% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3% to 48%, and France's decreased by 0.3% to 48.2%. The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but the service level dropped 3 percentage points to 51.4%. In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month, continuing the seasonal rebound trend. However, external demand dragged down the overall recovery, and the second quarter will face the pressure of seasonal off - peak and the withdrawal of macro - policies [12]. - **Economic Situation and Copper Price Impact**: The weakening of the US economy is persistent but has not fully reached a recession. Tariff policies may accelerate the recession process. The Fed's unclear interest - rate policy makes the market worried, putting pressure on copper prices. In China, policy stimulus supports domestic demand [5][14][82]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In 2024, the global copper concentrate market was in surplus. In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%, and the annual production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In February 2025, global copper mine production was 1.803 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.29%, and the refined copper market had a surplus of 61,000 tons. China's copper concentrate imports also increased. In December 2024, imports were 2.522 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, cumulative imports were 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In March 2025, imports were 2.394 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to March were 7.108 million tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous year [21][24]. - **TC (Treatment and Refining Charges)**: As of April 25, the average domestic copper concentrate TC was - 42.52 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 7.81 US dollars from the previous week. The spot TC for scattered orders became negative and the situation worsened, but copper concentrate port inventories began to increase to 750,000 tons [28]. - **Refined Copper Production**: In March 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production increased by 63,900 tons month - on - month, a 6.04% increase, and a 12.27% year - on - year increase. The cumulative production from January to March increased by 274,500 tons, a 9.4% increase. In April, some smelters had maintenance plans, but the overall production remained stable through adjustments in raw material input [33]. - **Refined Copper Import and Export**: In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%, and exported 457,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. From January to March 2025, China imported 842,600 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.06%, and exported 117,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 156.25% [39]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of scrap copper, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. The annual cumulative import in 2024 was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative import was 382,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.86% [42]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread**: The average spread between scrap and refined copper rods this week was 993 yuan per ton, up 489 yuan month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises improved marginally, and the weekly sample finished - product inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises was 2,600 tons, up 850 tons month - on - month. After the tax - related issues are resolved, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises is expected to continue to rise [46]. - **Consumption - end Demand**: - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, power infrastructure investment increased by 12.14% year - on - year, and grid investment increased by 15.26% year - on - year. From January to March 2025, power infrastructure investment decreased by 2.5% year - on - year, and grid investment increased by 24.8% year - on - year [50]. - **Air - conditioner Production**: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; the cumulative production from January to December was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to March 2025, the air - conditioner production was 74.4576 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [55]. - **Automobile Production**: In March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%. From January to March, automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2%. New - energy vehicle production and sales were 3.182 million and 3.075 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 50.4% and 47.1% [57]. - **Real - estate Market**: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In March 2025, the real - estate completion area was 131 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.3%, and the new - construction area decreased by 24.4% year - on - year [60]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 452,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 203,500 tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 54,800 tons to 116,800 tons; COMEX copper inventory increased by 8,850 tons to 132,000 tons. As of April 24, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 88,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous week [62]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Position**: As of April 22, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 24,765 lots, an increase of 5,288 lots week - on - week. Non - commercial long positions were 78,607 lots, up 3,145 lots week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 53,842 lots, down 2,143 lots week - on - week. Although the non - commercial long position reached a four - month low, it remained in a net - long state [66]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of April 25, the LME copper spot discount was 16.41 US dollars per ton. The LME copper spot premium and discount fluctuated. In China, the social inventory decreased rapidly. The domestic spot premium is expected to rise above 200 yuan per ton before the May Day holiday [76]. - **Basis**: As of April 25, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals average price of copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 840 yuan per ton [78].

Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 需求指引偏平淡，锂价震荡偏弱 碳酸锂周报20250428 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少488吨至16900吨，部分锂盐厂在4-6月检修，供应有少许减量。进口方面，据智利 海关，3月智利出口至中国碳酸锂规模为1.66万吨，环比增加38%，回升至均值水平。本周碳酸锂社会库存环比增加259吨 至13.19万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.24万吨、4.28万吨和3.66万吨。冶炼厂和下游小幅累库，整体去 库压力较大。中长期维度，今年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，5月下游暂无大的需求增量，531抢装结束后，国内储能面临需求环比下滑的风险。终端市场方面，据乘 联分会4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比增长20%，环比下降 ...

原油：多空交织反复，油价震荡反弹 正信期货原油周报 20250428 研究员：付馨苇 从业资格编号：F03101045 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：美国关税政策仍存不确定性，美伊谈判结果的反复也加剧市场波动。据CME"美联储观察" ：美联储5月 维持当前利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为8.3%。美联储6月维持当前利率不变的概率为37.3%，降息 25个基点的概率为57.8%，降息50个基点的概率为4.9%。 Ø 供应端：地缘方面，美国对伊朗制裁措施还未完全落地，关注美伊暂定于5月3日举行的高级别会议，其结果将决定 制裁力度。欧佩克方面，欧佩克及其减产同盟国希望考虑在6月份继续加快石油产量增长，虽有成员国根据前期超产 情况提交补偿计划，但哈萨克斯坦称产油国利益大于同盟国利益，补偿减产或难落地，关注5月5日欧佩克会议。 Ø 需求端：美国油品即将进入季节性旺季，炼化端因提前备货开工率回升，美汽油裂解价差季 ...

PTA：假期终端减产预期下，PTA延续成本主导 MEG：向上动能不足，乙二醇延续震荡格局 正信期货聚酯周报 20250428 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net 产业链周度重要数据 | | 价格 | 变动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 63.02 | -2.57% | 美元/桶 | 价格 | 涨跌 | 美元/吨 | | BRENT | 66.87 | -1.60% | 原油 | 581.75 | 2.47% | 石脑油 | | 价格 | 涨跌 | 美元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | | 581.75 | 2.47% | 石脑油 | | 价格 | 641 | 美元/吨 | 价格 | 655.5 | 美元/吨 | 价格 | 752 | 美元/吨 | 价格 | 790 | 美元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

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正信期货有色金属套利周报20250428 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 | | 品 种 | 策 | 略 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跨 期 | 锌 | 正 | 套 | TC持续快速上调 炼厂扭亏为盈 受国内外 ， 。 锌矿山投产周期影响 锌矿供给将周期性由 ， | | | | | | 紧转宽松 若全年需求无大的亮点 供需平 ， ， 建议逢低滚动参与 衡倾向于向过剩端移动 ， 锌的跨期正套 。 | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | | 国内精炼锌产出边际恢复 年内全球新投产 ， 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 而铝因国内产 ， | | | | | | 能限制 基本面强于锌 建议逢低滚动参与 ， ， | | | | | | 多铝空锌 。 | 2 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资金流动情况 第二部分：有色金属库存与利润情况 第三部分 ...

豆粕现货由紧转松，连粕冲高回落 豆粕周报 20250428 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1 目录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 主要观点 本周豆粕冲高回落。 成本端，当前美豆产区天气良好，截至20日种植率录得8%高于预期；不过上周美豆出口净销售录得27.7万 吨符合预期，叠加美豆油强势反弹，拉动美豆震荡走高。 国内，近期现货市场持续炒作缺货，叠加五一备货刺激下游成交转好，油厂大豆库存触底反弹，而豆粕大 幅去库至12.55万吨，为近10年同期低位。 策略：短期随着油厂开机逐渐增加，豆粕现货或将迎来回调，连粕整体面临压力；不过美豆强势对连粕形 成支撑，多空交织连粕或震荡运行；同时中长期新季美豆面积减少仍存在支撑，建议连粕09逢低做多。 当周CBOT大豆收于109.25美分/蒲，较上周收盘上涨12.50点，周涨幅1.19%； 当周M2509豆粕收于3031元/吨，较上周收盘上涨10点，周涨幅0.33%。 CBOT大豆 M2509豆粕 行情回顾 数据来源：文华财经，正信期货 CBOT大豆与M2509豆粕 截至4月25日收盘， 基本面分析 | 类别 | 关键词 | 描述 | | ...

新疆棉花播种接近尾声，郑棉低位震荡 棉花周报 20250428 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu ...

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