节前下游备库情绪一般，盘面反弹力度较弱 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 煤焦周度报告 20250428 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 宏观情绪主导，节前预计震荡走势；现货二轮提涨开启，暂未落地 | | | 供给 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭供应回升明显 | | | 需求 | 铁水加速回升，钢厂刚需采购为主；投机情绪一般，出口利润下滑，建材现货成交量仍偏低 | | | 库存 | 钢厂刚需采购，焦企略降库，总库存微降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭盘面利润震荡运行 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差略走强 | | | 总结 | 上周中美贸易摩擦预期反复摇摆，美方态度反复，中方否认开启谈判，加之节前下游备库情绪一般，双焦反弹力度偏弱。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨 0.87%至1566，焦煤09合约涨0.37%至956。焦炭方面，二轮提涨开启，焦企开工延续小幅回升。需求方面，铁水加速回升，短期 ...

股指期货周报 品种研究报告 2025 年 4 月 28 日 股指期货周报 正信期货研究院 政治局会议加强预期，指数节前或维持震荡 市场回顾：4 月政治局会议落地、宏观政策预期加强对市场底部形成 支撑，但基本面驱动不足、业绩报告面临检验、关税政策仍存扰动， 多空交织下指数陷入宽幅震荡，板块涨多跌少。截至 4 月 25 日当周， 沪深 300 涨 0.38%、上证 50 跌 0.33%、中证 500 涨 1.20%，中证 1000 涨 1.85%；IF 涨 0.82%、IH 跌 0.21%、IC 涨 1.83%，IM 涨 2.56%。Shibor 隔夜利率下行 11 个基点，DR007 基本持平，银行间市场利率保持平稳。 宏观基本面：4 月 25 日中央政治局会议召开，会议强调，要加紧实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松 的货币政策。会议指出，要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消 费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。4 月份的中央政治局会议认识 到当前外围环境带来的不确定性已经从风险因素转化为现实因素，外 需回落背景下，内需引擎作用加强，宏观政策调控预期进一步加强， 稳定就业的同时要 ...

观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格小幅下降， 淘鸡日龄小幅下降，大小码价差基本持平，鸡苗价 | | | | 格高位持续回落。 | | | 供应 | 今年蛋价跌破饲料成本的时间有限，所以养殖端大多选择延养或换羽。换羽鸡一般需30天左 | 偏空 | | | 右才开产，叠加五一旺季预期从而引发清明后鸡蛋供应偏紧。但五一之后，随着换羽鸡陆续 | | | | 开产，同时南方将逐渐进入梅雨季，或将面临供强需弱格局。 | | | | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量小幅下降，流通库存和生产环节库存大幅上升。 | | | 需求 | 近期销区市场库存压力上升，蛋商拿货主要以刚需为主，产区走货偏慢，但节日效应仍存短 | 中性 | | | 期支撑。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润大幅走低，低于近4年同期平均水平。 | 偏多 | | | 目前养殖利润处于盈亏平衡附近，若出现持续亏损，养殖户可能加速淘汰低效产能。 | | | | 本周鸡蛋基差小幅走低，期货近月合约仍处于小幅贴水状态。 | | | 价量 | 目前鸡蛋期货近远期价差处于中等水平。 ...

纸浆：供需僵持，浆价区间震荡为主 正信期货纸浆周报 20250428 研究员：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 供应端：上周纸浆产量为46.59万吨，环比增加0.43万吨，增幅0.93%；阔叶浆产量18.17万吨、化机浆产 量20.29万吨；预计本周阔叶浆产量约20.1万吨、化机浆产量约20万吨。 需求端 ： 生活用纸市场，采购刚需为主，部分纸企出货滞缓，库存压力较大 ， 预计本周生活用纸产量约 29.2万吨；双胶纸市场，生产变化不大，终端消费不振，下游印厂开工水平较低，预期本周双胶纸 产 量 约 19.3万吨；铜版纸市场，生产变化不大，终端消费难有跟进，出口订单有一定支撑 ， 预计本周铜版纸产量 约7.8万吨；白卡纸市场，存停机检修或技改计划，产量将有所减少，预计本周白卡纸总产量约30万吨。 库存端：上周国内港口库存量为210.6万吨，环比增加3.7万吨（或+1.79%）；青岛港库存量134.7万吨； 预计本周纸浆港口库存量约208万吨，变动不大。 策略：行业库存高位，下 ...

正信期货生猪周报 2025-4-28 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 供需趋平衡 现货偏震荡 观点小结 | 生猪 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 本周样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重小幅增加、标肥价差小幅走阔、大猪占比持续增加。 | 偏空 | | | 今年以来生猪期货近远月价差居高不下，期限结构几乎处于水平状态，反映出当前市场对供需关 | | | | 系的均衡预期。从远月来看，生猪产业资金主导的套保行为强化期现联动性，使得期货远月合约 | | | | 定价主要围绕成本运行。而近月受疫病扰动与养殖情绪提振，抗跌性明显增强。 | | | | 3月份官方母猪存栏4039万头，同比增加1.2%，环比下降1%，去年5月以来母猪产能延续增加，由 | | | | 此推导理论出栏在今年二季度或延续偏大格局。 | | | 需求 | 本周屠宰订单小幅增加，屠宰利润小幅下降，鲜效率持续下降，冻品库存小幅回升处于近4年历史 | 偏多 | | | 同期低位。 | | | | 近期二育逢低进场意愿加强，冻品库存也出现明显回升，使得二季度猪价或存短期支撑。 | | | 利润 | 自繁自养养殖 ...

贸易冲突升级，钢价弱势下跌 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 | 报告主要观点 | | --- | 钢矿周度报告 2025-04-08 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢 | 价格 | 现货大幅下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | | 供给 | 高炉产量继续增加，电炉产量季节性回升 | | | 库存 | 建材库存去化速度加快，板材库存去化偏慢 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比增加同比偏低，板材需求近强远弱 | | 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润偏平，电炉亏损扩大 | | | 基差 | 基差小幅走扩，关注正套机会 | | | 总结 | 受美国加征关税影响，全球商品明显走弱，国内对冲政策暂未落地，宏观情绪转弱；产业变化：近期高炉产量增加，电炉开工继续回升，整体供应加速回 升；需求方面，终端需求环比增加，砂石发运同步走高，土建需求转好明显；建材总库存加速去化，板材库存降幅收窄，建材与板材强弱格局 ...

钢矿月度报告 2025-04 金三不及预期，黑色弱势回调 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢 | 价格 | 现货震荡下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | | 供给 | 高炉加速复产，电炉产量季节性回升 | | | 库存 | 建材库存季节性去化，板材库存降速偏平 | | | 需求 | 建材需求增速放缓，板材内外需韧性仍存 | | 材 | 利润 | 原料让利下跌，利润高位运行 | | | 基差 | 期现同步下跌，价差倒挂持续 | | | 总结 | 美国再提全球汽车加征关税，国内工业企业利润里跌幅收窄，宏观整体偏空。产业变化：本月高炉继续复产，铁水产量连续增加，电炉同步增产，整 体供应仍在回升，但速度已放缓；品种方面卷螺同步增产，五大材供应高于去年同期；需求方面，终端开工继续回升，制造业需求仍然稳定；库存来 看，建材总库存累积速度放缓， ...

国储支撑减弱，玉米高位回落 玉米月报 202503 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu/ 科学课件 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In March, soybean meal fluctuated and declined. The USDA report on US and South American soybean production had a neutral impact. South American soybean harvest accelerated and exports increased, while US soybean exports were weak. However, the market expected a significant reduction in the intended planting area of new - season US soybeans, which supported the rebound of the US soybean futures after a decline. In China, due to the shortage of soybeans in oil mills and seasonal shutdown for maintenance, the operating rate of oil mills decreased continuously in March. The downstream trading and pick - up were average. With the expectation of a large increase in imported soybeans in April, the high - priced soybean meal spot prices dropped, dragging down the Dalian soybean meal futures. - It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on Dalian soybean meal under the intertwined long and short factors at home and abroad [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of the close at 15:00 on March 31, the monthly CBOT soybean closed at 1031.25 cents per bushel, up 6.25 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 0.61%. The monthly M2505 soybean meal closed at 2851 yuan per ton, down 81 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 2.76% [12]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Balance Sheet - **US Soybeans**: There were no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet in March compared to February. The planting area, harvest area, yield, etc. remained unchanged, with only minor changes in seed use and residual amounts [14]. - **Global Soybeans**: Global soybean production and domestic crushing were increased by 3 million tons to 352.84 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 3 million tons to 121.41 million tons. In China, crushing was increased by 2 million tons to 105 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 2 million tons to 43.96 million tons. In Argentina, domestic crushing was increased by 1 million tons to 42 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 1 million tons to 24.95 million tons [13][19]. 3.2.2 Weather - In the next 15 days, the overall rainfall and temperature in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas are normal [13]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week ending March 20, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 338,000 tons, and the cumulative sales were 45.7601 million tons, accounting for 92.13% of the export forecast in the March USDA report [29]. - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of the week ending March 23, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 76.4%, compared with 66.3% in the same period last year [32]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: The estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in March was 15.56 million tons, about 2.01 million tons more than the same period last year. Affected by Sino - US tariffs, the Brazilian soybean premium has temporarily stabilized [37]. 3.2.4 Supply - From January to February, the import of soybeans was 13.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8%. In the 12th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, with a decrease of 650,000 tons to 2.518 million tons [13][41][53]. 3.2.5 Demand - In March, the soybean crushing volume was 5.7605 million tons, a decrease of 785,900 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 2.733 million tons from the same period last year. The trading volume of oil mills in March was 2.0812 million tons, a decrease of 1.02 million tons from the previous month, and the pick - up volume was 2.7017 million tons, a decrease of 186,400 tons from the previous month [13][44][50]. 3.2.6 Inventory - In the 12th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, while the soybean meal inventory increased. The soybean inventory was 2.518 million tons, a decrease of 650,000 tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 749,200 tons, an increase of 66,200 tons from the previous week [53]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentions tracking the basis of soybean meal in Jiangsu, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the 05 soybean - rapeseed meal spread, and the 05 oil - meal ratio, but no specific data analysis is provided [55][56][57].