Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices are oscillating at a high level. Overseas, the weather in US cotton - growing areas has been favorable recently, with the drought - affected area of US cotton remaining at 3% as of July 22, and the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton at 57% as of July 20, higher than last week and last year. Also, the net export sales of US cotton last week were only 100,000 bales, which put pressure on US cotton. However, the high - temperature and low - rainfall weather in the western US cotton - growing areas in the coming week is unfavorable for cotton growth, and the strong performance of US crude oil and US grains provides support for US cotton. With these mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. - In the domestic market, on the supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and the import of cotton is relatively low. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the operating rate of spinning mills is decreasing, and the finished - product inventory is constantly accumulating. Currently, the new - season cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bloom stage, the soil moisture is fair, and the high - temperature situation in the growing areas has recently eased. - Strategy: With mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. In China, the low import of cotton and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory lead to a relatively fast inventory - reduction speed. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. In addition, the downstream demand is still weak, combined with the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, which will limit the upward range of Zhengzhou cotton futures [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - US cotton is affected by both positive and negative factors and is oscillating. In China, due to low cotton imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory, the inventory - reduction speed is fast. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. The weak downstream demand, increased new - season cotton planting area, and alleviated Xinjiang high - temperature will limit the rise of Zhengzhou cotton [8]. 3.2 Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 68.23 cents per pound, down 0.53 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.77%. The CF2509 contract closed at 14,170 yuan per ton, down 100 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.70% [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton Growth**: As of the week of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year. The boll - setting rate was 33%, up from 23% the previous week and compared with 40% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 33%. The budding rate was 71%, up from 61% the previous week and compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 75% [14][18]. - **US Cotton Exports**: In the 2024/2025 season, the net export sales of US upland cotton were - 32,700 bales, significantly lower than the previous week and the four - week average. In the 2025/2026 season, the net export sales were 132,600 bales. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton was 184,800 bales, a week - on - week increase of 18% but a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average [14][22]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills**: As of July 24, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 67.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%. The operating rate continued to decline this week. The cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 27.90 days of storage, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.63% [14][26][29]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of July 24, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 353,300 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [14][31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions cotton basis, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but no specific data or analysis is provided [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Palm oil has support from the industrial side, but short - term attention should be paid to the transmission of the cooling sentiment in the industrial products sector to the oil and fat sector. The overall growth of US soybeans is good, the premium of Brazilian soybeans is firm, and Argentina has lowered the soybean export tax, so CBOT soybeans are running weakly. In July, Malaysian palm oil production increased and exports declined, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory at the end of the month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased in May - June, and domestic sales were boosted by the implementation of biodiesel in line with the annual plan, with inventory stabilizing in May. The vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in the first half of July, but the market expects an increase in palm oil imports in the second half of the year. In operation, the North American market is waiting for biodiesel news, CBOT soybean oil is consolidating at a high level, and domestic and foreign palm oils are running at a high level supported by good exports from Indonesia. Hold the previous low - position long positions, but be aware of the short - term price correction risk of oils and fats due to the cooling sentiment in the industrial products sector [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - Last week, soybean and palm oils were consolidating at high levels, while rapeseed oil gave back the previous week's gains. In the producing areas, from July 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 9 - 15%, and production from July 1 - 20 increased by 6 - 12%. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 50% and 30.5% month - on - month in May and June respectively, and the inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% to 2.9 million tons. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, a week - on - week decrease of 2%; the premium of Brazilian soybeans is 155 - 160 cents per bushel; Argentina lowered the soybean export tax from 33% to 26% [7]. - In China, the weekly spot trading of soybean oil was average, and palm oil was mainly for rigid demand. Five new palm oil purchase contracts for August were added last week. Soybean and palm oils have accumulated inventory to 1.09 million tons and 0.57 million tons respectively. The CBOT soybeans are running weakly due to lack of support. Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to accumulate inventory at the end of July. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased in May - June, and the inventory stopped increasing at the end of May. The vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in the first half of July, and the market expects an increase in palm oil imports in the second half of the year. In operation, the North American market is waiting for biodiesel news, CBOT soybean oil is consolidating at a high level, and domestic and foreign palm oils are running at a high level. Hold the previous low - position long positions, but be aware of the short - term price correction risk of oils and fats [7][8]. 2. Market Review - Last week, domestic and foreign palm oils and soybean oils fluctuated at high levels, while Zhengzhou rapeseed oil gave back the previous week's gains [10]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, a week - on - week decrease. The premium of Brazilian soybeans last week was 155 - 162 cents per bushel; Argentina lowered the soybean export tax from 33% to 26% [13]. - **Palm Oil**: From July 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 9 - 15%, and production from July 1 - 20 increased by 6 - 12%. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 50% and 30.5% month - on - month in May and June respectively; the inventory at the end of May was 2.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.27%. The vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in the first half of July [13]. - **Import and Crushing**: In June, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative import of 49.37 million tons from January - June, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In June, it imported 0.35 million tons of palm oil, with a cumulative import of 1.07 million tons from January - June, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. In June, it imported 0.15 million tons of rapeseed oil, with a cumulative import of 1.18 million tons from January - June, a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. In June, it imported 0.1845 million tons of rapeseed, a month - on - month decrease of 45% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.69%. The soybean crushing rate and soybean inventory of oil mills are relatively high; the rapeseed crushing rate of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, and the rapeseed inventory is still low [13]. - **Inventory**: As of mid - July, soybean oil has accumulated inventory for 12 consecutive weeks to 1.09 million tons; rapeseed oil inventory is 0.73 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous high; palm oil has continued to increase inventory to 0.57 million tons. The accumulation of soybean and palm oil inventories has driven the total inventory of the three major oils and fats to increase to 2.32 million tons, compared with 1.89 million tons in the same period last year [13][44]. - **Spot Price**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats were narrowly sorted. As of July 25, the price of soybean oil was 8,323 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 0.36% from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 9,080 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 0.33% from the previous week; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,610 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.93% from the previous week [13][49]. - **Demand**: The overall spot trading of oils and fats last week was average. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 83,200 tons, compared with 80,200 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2,348 tons, compared with 2,448 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, compared with 4,500 tons in the previous week [13][52]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not provided in detail in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices were in a low - level oscillation. Abroad, as of July 22, the drought - affected area of US corn remained at 9%, and the good - to - excellent rate remained at 74%, in line with expectations. As of the week ending July 17, the net export sales of US corn were 1.38 million tons, also in line with expectations, and the US corn futures oscillated weakly. Domestically, wheat harvesting is basically over, and reserve depots in many places have entered the market to purchase, supporting wheat prices. Corn is in the off - season between harvests. Recently, auctions of imported corn have continued, but the transaction rate has gradually declined. Meanwhile, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises is generally low, and the short - term corn spot price has stopped falling. In terms of demand, current feed enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories, and the off - season of aquaculture demand restricts restocking. Feed enterprises purchase as needed. Corn processing is also entering the off - season, and processing profits remain at a low level. The strategy is that with multiple factors at play, the US corn market oscillates weakly. In China, the purchase by reserves supports the firm wheat price. The short - term low supply of corn supports the spot price, while the continued auction of imported corn and the existing bearish sentiment in the market lead to an oscillating corn futures market. In the medium - to - long - term, as grain sources gradually shift to channels, channel merchants hold back supplies, port inventories are continuously consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a supply - demand gap in the third quarter. However, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high, and corn prices may rise first and then fall [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The CBOT12 corn closed at 419.00 cents per bushel, down 9.00 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 2.10%. The C2509 corn closed at 2,311 yuan per ton, down 3 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.13% [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 External Market - Weather: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is average, and the temperature is low [14] - Growth: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 67% in the same period last year. As of the same week, the silking rate was 56%, up from 34% the previous week but lower than 58% last year and the five - year average. The dough stage rate was 14%, up from 7% the previous week, lower than 16% last year but higher than the five - year average of 12%. As of the week ending July 22, about 9% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 4% last year [23] - Export: As of the week ending July 17, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 643,000 tons, up from 98,000 tons the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 734,000 tons, up from 566,000 tons the previous week [27] 3.2.2 Domestic Inventory - Feed Enterprises: As of July 24, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.87 days, down 0.47 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 0.68% [31] - Deep - processing Enterprises: From July 17 to July 23, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.0624 million tons of corn, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week. Affected by weak downstream demand, the processing profit of corn starch weakened again. As of July 23, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.005 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [36][40] - Port Inventory: As of July 18, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 340,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 262,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 940,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 10,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 481,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week; the imported barley was 395,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week [42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as the 9 - 1 spread of corn, the starch - to - corn spread, the corn basis, and the wheat - to - corn spread are mentioned [45][46]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, soybean meal prices first rose and then fell. On the cost side, recent rainfall in US soybean - producing areas has been good, but some areas have faced high - temperature threats. As of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, slightly higher than the previous week and last year. As of July 17, the soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68%, lower than expected, which supported US soybeans. Last week, the net export sales of US soybeans were 400,000 tons, in line with expectations but down from the previous week. With the approaching of August 1, the slow progress of tariff negotiations between the US and other countries has increased market concerns about US soybean demand. Amidst the mix of positive and negative factors, US soybeans have been oscillating downward. In the domestic market, recent soybean arrivals have been sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has returned to normal, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Meanwhile, recent downstream restocking has weakened, but the spot price of soybean meal has remained stable due to the influence of the futures market. Additionally, oil mills' soybean and soybean - meal inventories are in an accumulation cycle, with short - term soybean inventories slightly decreasing and soybean - meal inventories continuously increasing. The strategy is that US soybeans are oscillating downward due to the mix of positive and negative factors; in the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient in the third quarter, the oil - mill operating rate has reached a high level compared to the same period, the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, and current downstream restocking has weakened, so the spot price will remain oscillating. In the short term, as Sino - US economic and trade consultations are approaching, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US tariffs; in the long term, US soybeans have entered the weather - sensitive period. Favorable weather in the early - stage production areas has limited speculation, and the temperature in US soybean - producing areas will be high first and then low in the next two weeks, so attention should be paid to potential weather - related speculation [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the CBOT soybean closed at 1021.75 cents per bushel, down 13.25 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.28%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 3021 yuan per ton, down 35 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.15% [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather**: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall and low temperatures in US soybean - producing areas [12] - **US soybean growth**: As of the week of July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. The US soybean flowering rate was 62%, up from 47% in the previous week, compared with 63% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 63%. The US soybean pod - setting rate was 26%, up from 15% in the previous week, compared with 27% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 26%. As of the week of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 7% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year [12][21] - **US soybean exports**: As of the week of July 17, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were 161,000 tons, compared with 272,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 239,000 tons, compared with 530,000 tons in the previous week [12][25] - **Brazilian soybeans**: The estimated Brazilian soybean exports in July are 12.11 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons year - on - year. Recently, the Brazilian real has been stable, US soybeans have been oscillating, and the near - month soybean premium has stopped rising and adjusted [12][31] Supply - **Imports**: In the 29th week (July 12 - July 18), the total arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was 31.5 ships, about 2.0475 million tons of soybeans [12][35] Demand - **Pressing**: In the 30th week (July 19 - July 25), the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%, 380 tons higher than the estimate [12][35] - **Transactions**: In the 30th week, soybean - meal transactions increased to 692,600 tons, an increase of 4.51%; pick - up increased to 942,100 tons, an increase of 1.72% [12][39] Inventory - **Oil - mill inventory**: In the 29th week, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, the soybean - meal inventory increased, and the unfulfilled contracts decreased. Among them, the soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, a decrease of 152,500 tons from the previous week; the soybean - meal inventory was 998,400 tons, an increase of 112,200 tons from the previous week [12][44] 3. Spread Tracking - No specific spread - tracking analysis content was provided except for listing items such as soybean - meal basis in Jiangsu, oil - to - meal ratio, soybean - meal 9 - 1 spread, and soybean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread [47][51][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - New peanuts are about to hit the market, and peanut prices are oscillating weakly. The overall peanut prices this week showed a weak adjustment. With the drought in Henan's production area alleviating, traders are accelerating inventory clearance, and there is a strong willingness to clear out lower - quality supplies. The demand side remains weak, with sluggish transactions in the domestic market and strong wait - and - see sentiment among demanders. The short - term downward trend in market price transactions may continue. In the short term, the spot price is likely to remain oscillating weakly, and the long - term market mainly depends on the impact of weather on the growth of new - season peanuts and whether there is a significant improvement in market demand. For futures, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating in the range of 7800 - 8400 for nearly a year. Given the continuous growth of peanut planting area in the past two years and no obvious change in the demand side, the short - term price trend is more likely to oscillate weakly within the range. Trend traders can construct an insurance strategy by combining long futures contracts and buying out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 levels lower. Band traders can buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the upper end, but should pay attention to position management [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints - New peanuts are about to be launched, and the short - term spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. The long - term market depends on weather and demand. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Suggestions for different types of traders are provided [7]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Peanut and Oilseed Sector - The peanut weighted index maintains a narrow - range oscillation, with the buying and selling sides in a relatively balanced state, waiting for the price to break through the small - range. The oilseed sector has encountered some pressure at the upper end of the range, and the key is to see if there is follow - up selling [9][10]. 2.2 Peanut 2510 Contract - Last week, the price of the 2510 contract rose to near the upper end of the range, and then the buying power weakened. This week, the price回调 to near the lower end of the range, showing a short - term weak oscillation pattern [14]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Oil Mill Inventory and Operating Rate - The weekly inventory of peanut oil is 39,160 tons, a decrease of 60 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of oil mills is 4.29%, a decrease of about 0.34% compared to last week [17]. 3.2 Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha) - The drought in Henan has eased, and the upcoming launch of new peanuts has accelerated the clearance of lower - quality supplies. The short - term downward trend in market price transactions may continue [20]. 3.3 Peanut Oil Price Trend - The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main production areas this week is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week [24]. 3.4 Peanut Meal Price Trend - The prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have fallen back after hitting resistance at the upper end of the range, while the peanut meal price maintains an oscillating pattern [28]. 3.5 Imported Peanuts - The new - crop Sudanese imported refined peanuts are priced at about 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and the old - crop at about 8500 yuan/ton, with a slightly weakening price and low inventory and few transactions. Senegalese oil peanuts are priced at about 7800 yuan/ton, and refined peanuts at about 8500 - 8600 yuan/ton, with weak prices and few transactions. African supplies will have few subsequent arrivals. Brazilian high - oleic peanuts of 34/38 specification are priced at 12,000 yuan/ton, and 38/42 specification at 11,500 yuan/ton, with average sales [32]. 3.6 Market Price Index Compared to Last Month - The prices in some domestic markets are slightly weak, with low arrival volumes. Traders mainly consume their previous inventories, and the terminal market sales are slow [35]. 4. Spread Tracking 4.1 Basis Spread - Not elaborated further in the provided content, only the basis chart and data source are given [37][38]

正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格大幅上涨， 淘鸡日龄小幅增加，大小码价差大幅走高，鸡苗价格持 | | | | 续下降。 近年来，养殖设备的升级会减少高温导致蛋率下降比例，但仍呈现季节性特征。高温天气的持续， | | | 供应 | 产蛋率有望进一步下滑，同时随着时令蔬菜逐渐减量，鸡蛋的替代效应将凸显。但今年以来，淘 | 偏空 | | | 鸡价格与鸡蛋比价居高不下，且一直处于近年同期最高，表明淘鸡力度不足，或将限制季节性反 | | | | 弹幅度。 | | | | 本周主销区销量小幅增加，主产区发货量小幅增加，流通库存和生产环节库存持续处于低位。 随着中秋节备货启动，蛋商采购意愿有所回升，各环节库存持续大幅下降，需求边际明显改善。 | | | 需求 | 近期现货经过快速拉涨后出现企稳，但并未下跌，说明终端抵触情绪并不太浓，高价蛋进入市场 | 偏多 | | | 初期会有过渡期，在过渡期价格会有所反复。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润持续走高，处于近4年同期最低水平。 | 中性 | | | 本周 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs (2025-7-28) [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bullish [3] - Demand: Bearish [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Sideways [3] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing issues such as over - capacity and suggesting measures like culling sows and controlling fat pig weights [3]. - In the short term, the average weight of commercial pig sales by sample breeding enterprises increased slightly, the price difference between standard and fat pigs continued to decline, and the proportion of large pig sales increased significantly [3]. - Slaughter starts increased slightly this week, with narrow - fluctuating slaughter profits and a slight increase in frozen product inventory, which is at a low level in the same period of the past 4 years. High temperatures have suppressed pork consumption, and concentrated procurement has decreased due to construction site closures [3]. - Self - breeding and self - raising profits are near the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is at the average level of the same period in the past 4 years. The basis of live pigs has decreased rapidly, and the near - month contracts are at par [3]. - The price difference between near - and far - term live pig futures contracts is oscillating downward, at a normal level in the same period of history. The net short position of institutional investors in the main live pig futures contract is oscillating [3]. - With policy support and corporate actions, it is expected that the market path in the second half of the year may be similar to that in 2023, with pig prices rising moderately and weights decreasing significantly. The operation strategy is to dynamically construct a bullish call spread for the September live pig futures contract [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Analyzes aspects including live pig spot prices, basis, price differences between contracts, and institutional net positions [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers sows in stock, piglet supply, pig sales, and the price difference between standard and fat pigs [16][19][21][23] Demand Analysis - Includes pig slaughter, frozen product inventory, and substitutes [25][28][32] Profit Analysis - Focuses on breeding profits and the pig - grain ratio [35][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution trend continues to ferment, and the black market remains at a high level. For steel, the spot price has risen significantly, and the futures price has rebounded from a low level. The supply shows a marginal decline, with the growth of short - process rebar supply and the decline of plate production. Demand is affected by factors such as high - temperature weather and the automotive off - season, with the direct demand for building materials falling and the demand for plates weakening. The inventory of building materials has a slower growth rate, and the plate inventory has a slight accumulation. For iron ore, the price has risen strongly, the supply has tightened, the demand has slightly declined, the port inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream inventory has also accumulated. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market is difficult to reverse, and the callback space for the black market is expected to be limited. The strategy for both steel and iron ore is to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The rebar price has risen again, with the 10 - contract rising 209 to 3356, and the spot price in the East China region reaching 3430 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 180 yuan. The hot - rolled coil price also shows an upward trend [10][13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 83.46%, remaining flat compared to last week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.81%, a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal output is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills is 55.49%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points. The total output of the five major steel products is 866.97 million tons, a decrease of 1.22 million tons. Rebar production has increased slightly by 2.9 million tons, mainly contributed by the short - process, while hot - rolled coil production has decreased by 3.65 million tons [17][26][29]. 3.1.3 Demand - From July 16th to July 22nd, the capacity utilization rate of 506 concrete mixing stations is 7.04%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points week - on - week, and the shipment volume is 140.95 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.13%. The terminal demand has declined due to high - temperature weather and typhoons, but the speculative demand has increased significantly due to the rising price. The consumption of building materials has increased by 2.7% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates has decreased by 1.7%. The domestic automotive market is in the off - season, and the upstream production has weakened [32][36]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast - furnace steel mill profitability rate is 63.64%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points. The average cost of 76 independent electric - arc - furnace building - steel mills is 3342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton, and the average profit is - 33 yuan/ton, while the off - peak electricity profit is 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [40]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products is 1336.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.16 million tons. The rebar social inventory accumulation rate has slowed down, and the factory inventory has decreased by 7.43 million tons, while the social inventory has increased by 2.8 million tons. The hot - rolled coil factory inventory has increased by 0.69 million tons, and the social inventory has increased by 1.56 million tons [44][47]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 - contract basis is 96, a narrowing of 27 compared to last week. The hot - rolled coil basis is 24, a narrowing of 26 [50]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread is - 43, a repair of 1 compared to last week, with little change [53]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread - The futures plate - rebar spread is 151, a narrowing of 12 compared to last week, and the spot spread is 90, remaining flat. The current spread is at a neutral - high level, with limited profit space [56]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore 09 - contract has risen 17.5 to 802.5, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port has risen 7 to 780 yuan/ton. The market sentiment is bullish, and port transactions have increased [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - From July 14th to July 20th, the global iron ore shipment volume is 3109.1 million tons, an increase of 122.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil is 2552.0 million tons, a decrease of 6.8 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia is 1629.4 million tons, a decrease of 108.9 million tons, and the shipment volume to China is 1443.6 million tons, an increase of 13.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil is 922.6 million tons, an increase of 102.1 million tons. The 19 - port shipment volume from Australia and Brazil is 2479.0 million tons, a decrease of 19.2 million tons. The Chinese 47 - port arrival volume is 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons [64][67][70]. 3.2.3 Rigid Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons, and the iron ore demand has slightly declined [73]. 3.2.4 Speculative Demand - The average daily port transaction volume is 100.3 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons, and downstream steel mills are replenishing inventory normally [77]. 3.2.5 Port Inventory - The total inventory of 47 ports is 14395.68 million tons, an increase of 14.17 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume is 329.33 million tons, a decrease of 9.43 million tons. The number of ships at the port is 102, an increase of 4 [80]. 3.2.6 Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder for 114 steel mills is 2794.77 million tons, an increase of 75.95 million tons [84]. 3.2.7 Shipping - The shipping freight from Western Australia to China is 10.48 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.85 US dollars, and the shipping freight from Brazil to China is 24.07 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.93 US dollars [87]. 3.2.8 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread is 30, a narrowing of 2 compared to last week. The 09 - contract is at a discount of 1.7, showing a near - flat state between the futures and spot prices [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Fundamentals: Last week, the US made progress in tariff trade, reaching tariff agreements with countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. China and the US will hold the third round of economic and trade consultations, and market risk sentiment has declined, weakening the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, tariff trade policies still carry risks, leading to an oscillatory adjustment in precious metal prices. US President Trump pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut interest rates during a visit to the Fed building for renovation, which raised concerns about the Fed's independence. COMEX gold futures rose and then fell, while COMEX silver futures maintained an oscillatory trend [2]. - Capital: Last week, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased, and hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold and silver [2]. - Strategy: The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, continuing to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai silver has a slight upward trend in the short - term, and it is advisable to look for long - entry opportunities. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy when the price drops sharply to the lower edge of the oscillatory range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Key indicators' price changes: The spot price of London gold decreased by 0.35% to $3343.50 per ounce, COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.51% to $3338.50 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract fell by 0.39% to 777.32 yuan per gram. The spot price of London silver increased by 1.22% to $38.74 per ounce, COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.26% to $38.33 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose by 1.28% to 9392 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Gold - silver ratio: The gold - silver ratios of both the domestic and international markets decreased compared to last week, and both continued to repair to around 80 - 85, but were significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price was undervalued. The 50% tariff on copper in the US may drive enterprises to use silver as a substitute, increasing silver demand [10]. - Price spreads between domestic and international markets: The price spreads of gold and silver between domestic and international markets increased compared to last week. Affected by the US tariff trade policy and the Fed's independence, precious metals showed an oscillatory trend [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - US dollar index: Trump's continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, causing a slight decline in the US dollar index, which supported the precious metal prices [14]. - US Treasury real yields: Last week, the real yield of the 5 - year US Treasury increased slightly, while that of the 10 - year US Treasury decreased. Affected by the changing expectations of US tariff policies and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metal prices oscillated [17]. - Inflation and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4% and the expected 2.6%. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.8% and slightly lower than the expected 3%. The impact of tariffs on commodity inflation has emerged, but the transmission to service inflation is not significant. The Fed will maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term, and the market expects a 62.4% probability of an interest - rate cut in September [22]. - Key US economic data: - PMI: In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, slightly higher than the expected 48.8, and the service PMI was 50.8, slightly higher than the expected 50.6 [25]. - Retail sales: In June, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, reversing the decline in May. Core retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased by 0.5% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [25]. - Employment data: In June, ADP employment decreased by 33,000, far lower than the expected increase of 95,000. Non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000 [31]. - Fed's independence: Trump's visit to the Fed and pressure on Powell to cut interest rates, as well as a lawsuit against the Fed and the criticism from the US Treasury Secretary, have raised concerns about the Fed's independence [34]. - US tariff trade: The US has made progress in tariff trade, but the policy remains uncertain. The US has reached tariff agreements with some countries, and is approaching the August 1 tariff deadline. The 50% tariff on copper may bring positive factors to silver [34]. - Central bank gold purchases: 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold investments in the next 12 - 24 months. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks net - purchased 244 tons of gold. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, which supports the price of gold in the long - term [35]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge funds: As of the week ending July 22, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 39,900 lots to 253,000 lots, and CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 12,000 lots to 60,600 lots [38]. - ETFs: As of July 25, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 13.47 tons to 957.09 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 572.22 tons to 15,230.43 tons, indicating an accelerated inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs [39]. 3.4 Other Elements - Gold and silver inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventories were 37.7624 million ounces, a 1.53% increase from the previous week, and COMEX silver inventories were 500.3207 million ounces, a 0.62% increase. The 50% tariff on copper may drive up the price of silver due to its industrial demand [43]. - Gold and silver demand: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36,305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2,296.35 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, global total gold demand increased slightly year - on - year. The global silver deficit is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and the industrial demand for silver remains strong [46]. - Key events to watch this week: This week, important events include the third round of China - US economic and trade consultations, the release of US economic data such as PCE, core PCE, and the July non - farm payroll report, the Fed's July interest - rate meeting, and the approaching August 1 tariff deadline [48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of commodities is driven by macro - sentiment. PTA may experience a short - term decline from high levels under the expectation of a fall in commodity sentiment due to new device production and poor terminal performance. MEG is expected to mainly follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with its cost support limited and supply pressure postponed [6]. - The cost side shows that crude oil continues to fluctuate widely, and PX is expected to run warmly in the short term. The supply side of PTA remains stable, while the total supply of MEG is expected to increase. The demand side of polyester is expected to change little, and the terminal demand is weakly declining [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Market Review**: OPEC+ is still in the process of increasing production, and geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in international crude oil. PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment despite limited support from cost and a weakening naphtha [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Tianjin Petrochemical's maintenance led to a narrow decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 82.81%, down 0.35% from last week, and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 72.87%, down 0.28% [21]. - **Price Spread**: The PX - naphtha price spread rebounded slightly as naphtha prices weakened and commodity sentiment was good in China. As of July 25, the PX - naphtha price spread was 292.5 dollars/ton, up 30.55 dollars/ton from July 18 [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro factors, PTA had a weak rebound. The supply was stable, demand shrank slightly, and the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory. As of July 25, the PTA spot price was 4900 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 5 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There were no significant changes in PTA devices this week, and the capacity utilization fluctuated narrowly at 80.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. In July, Helen Petrochemical plans to start production, and Hengli has a maintenance plan, so the PTA capacity utilization is expected to fluctuate slightly [30]. - **Processing Fee**: The PTA processing fee was significantly repaired. Although the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory and downstream procurement enthusiasm was blocked, there was an expectation of increased maintenance at low processing fees, so the processing fee is expected to continue to be repaired at a low level next week [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, with the commissioning of new PTA devices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, the supply - demand of PTA turned to inventory accumulation [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro and cost factors, ethylene glycol rebounded significantly. After breaking through and rising, it entered a high - level volatile trend. As of July 25, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4579 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4580 yuan/ton [40]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Some devices reduced their loads, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization decreased slightly. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 59.20%, up 0.71% compared to the previous period. In July, domestic production is expected to increase, and overall supply will increase slightly [44]. - **Port Inventory**: Due to weak terminal demand, the ethylene glycol port inventory fluctuated at a low level. As of July 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was 47.5 tons, up 1.57 tons from July 21 [46]. - **Processing Profit**: Ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level, and processing profits increased across the board. As of July 25, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 81.9 dollars/ton, up 20.69 dollars/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 75.2 yuan/ton, up 35.73 yuan/ton from last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Side of the Industry Chain Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Due to large - scale production cuts, the polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly to 86.4%, down 0.29% from the previous period. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [54]. - **Production Volume**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and high cash - flow pressure, the polyester monthly output is expected to decline significantly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The capacity utilization of polyester products was differentiated. The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 92.09%, down 0.85% from the previous period; the average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was 84.78%, down 1.64% from the previous period; and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.58%, up 0.22% from last week [61]. - **Inventory**: Due to downstream centralized replenishment, the inventory of polyester products decreased significantly [62]. - **Cash - Flow**: With the significant increase in raw material prices, the cash - flow of polyester products was compressed, and the cash - flow loss expanded [67]. - **Weaving Market**: The off - season atmosphere in the weaving market deepened, and the start - up rate continued to decline. As of July 24, the comprehensive start - up rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.59%, down 0.24% from the previous period, and the average terminal weaving order days were 6.94 days, a decrease of 0.33 days from last week [70]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Crude oil declined, and PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment [72]. - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization remained flat, and the MEG capacity utilization increased slightly [72]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and the weaving industry start - up rate was low with weak terminal demand [72]. - **Inventory**: PTA inventory shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area fluctuated [73].