1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken last week, market sentiment cooled significantly, and it is expected that there is still room for correction in the black market, but differentiation among varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and focus on the correction space [7]. - For iron ore, the supply decreased slightly week - on - week last week, demand increased marginally, and the supply - demand structure improved week - on - week. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the ore price may maintain the current oscillating and slightly strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - Last week, the rebar price corrected from a high level, hot - rolled coils oscillated, and the trends of coils and rebar diverged. The rebar 10 contract fell 25 to close at 3188, and the spot price also corrected. The rebar in East China was reported at 3320 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week [13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week and an increase of 11.89 tons year - on - year [15]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.39%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 21.74 percentage points year - on - year. The average start - up rate was 76.39%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 23.97 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - The supply of the five major steel products last week was 871.63 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.3%. Among them, the rebar output decreased by 0.7 tons week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.7 tons [28]. 3.1.3 Demand - From August 6th to 12th, the national cement outbound volume was 2.608 million tons, a decrease of 1.27% week - on - week and a decrease of 19.88% year - on - year. The direct supply of infrastructure cement was 1.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week - on - week and a decrease of 3.64% year - on - year. The speculative demand for building materials also declined [31]. - For hot - rolled coils, from August 1st to 10th, the national passenger car market retail volume was 452,000 vehicles, a decrease of 4% year - on - year and an increase of 6% compared with the same period last month. Domestic manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [34]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was - 47 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [37]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products last week was 14.1597 million tons, an increase of 406,100 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 2.95%. The social inventory of rebar increased significantly, and the rebar factory inventory increased by 40,000 tons [41]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - plant inventory increased by 21,000 tons, and the social inventory increased slightly by 8,400 tons [44]. 3.1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 10 was 112, a narrowing of 5 compared with last week. The basis of hot - rolled coils was - 9, a narrowing of 21 compared with last week [47]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 81, with the inversion deepening by 8 compared with last week [50]. 3.1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 251, widening by 36 compared with last week. The spot spread was 130, widening by 20 compared with last week [53]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - Last week, the iron ore price oscillated after a correction, with narrow fluctuations. The 09 contract rose 7 to close at 790, and the trading volume and open interest both declined. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [59]. 3.2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.467 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in August was 30.543 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 1.2 million tons compared with last year [62]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 25.97 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons compared with last month and an increase of 320,000 tons compared with last year [68]. 3.2.3 Rigid Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons/day, an increase of 0.34 tons/day week - on - week, an increase of 0.54 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 11.89 tons/day compared with last year [71]. 3.2.4 Speculative Demand - The average daily port trading volume last week was 954,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons week - on - week [75]. 3.2.5 Port Inventory - As of August 15th, the total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 12.71 million tons compared with the same period last year [78]. 3.2.6 Downstream Inventory - On August 14th, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 27.7594 million tons, an increase of 196,600 tons compared with the previous period [81]. 3.2.7 Shipping - The sea freight from Western Australia to China was 9.93 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars week - on - week. The sea freight from Brazil to China was 24.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars week - on - week [84]. 3.2.8 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, remaining flat compared with last week. The 01 contract was at a discount of 19.5, remaining basically flat compared with last week [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of the glass industry are currently weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season. For the soda ash industry, the fundamentals have not improved, and it will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. - For soda ash, the industry pattern has not significantly improved. Supply - side production has rebounded and remained at a high level, while demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short - term upstream inventory has increased again, and the absolute inventory level is high, which is difficult to provide sufficient support based on fundamentals. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and coal price fluctuations. For glass, the fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange recently. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [4][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - This week, the spot price slightly decreased, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas in North China and East China saw price drops in heavy soda ash. The national market prices of heavy and light soda ash both slightly decreased. The futures price was stable with a slight upward trend. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract increased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [5][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the production of soda ash increased, with both light and heavy soda ash production rising. The overall operating rate increased, with the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process slightly decreasing and that of the co - production process increasing significantly [4][13]. 3.1.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises increased, and the overall production - sales rate increased. However, the demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid needs. Next week, the demand for float glass is expected to increase slightly, while that for photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. The net export volume decreased in June [4][21]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of soda ash enterprises increased slightly. The inventory of light soda ash increased, while that of heavy soda ash decreased [4][29]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of the co - production method (double - ton) and the ammonia - soda method both decreased slightly [4][33]. 3.1.6 Strategy - The soda ash industry pattern has not improved significantly. Supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and coal price fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - The spot price was stable with a slight decrease. The futures price of the main 2601 contract increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [37][42]. 3.2.2 Supply - Last week, the daily output and weekly output of float glass remained unchanged. The operating rate increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged. There were 223 production lines in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut - down lines [36][47]. 3.2.3 Demand - As of mid - August, the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, but the downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate end - stage recovery was weak, and the new - construction willingness at the front - end was low. In July, the production and sales of automobiles decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year and were at a relatively high level in recent years [36][56]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 2.55% month - on - month, and inventories in all regions increased to varying degrees [36][63]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of float glass produced by coal - gas, natural gas, and petroleum coke all decreased slightly [36][77]. 3.2.6 Strategy - The fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of pulp shows initial marginal improvement. International pulp mills are actively reducing production and switching production, leading to a tightening of domestic circulating supply. The downstream procurement sentiment has slightly improved, with leading paper mills entering the market to purchase. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2511 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 5200 - 5450 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed that softwood pulp remained relatively stable, while hardwood pulp increased slightly. Among them, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 5850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4200 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (or +2.94%) from the previous week. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp were flat compared to the previous week [10][13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated and rebounded in a range of more than 140 points, closing at 5306 yuan/ton for the week, up 114 yuan/ton (or +2.2%) [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the smaller increase in the spot price of softwood pulp than that of pulp futures, the basis discount has decreased. The basis discount between softwood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract is 544 yuan/ton, a reduction of 144 yuan/ton compared to last week [18]. - **Log Futures Review**: Last week, the main log futures contract 2509 showed a slight oscillatory decline, closing at 815.0 yuan/cubic meter for the week, down 15.5 yuan/cubic meter (or -1.87%) from the previous week [19]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 48.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons (or +0.42%). It is expected that the domestic production of hardwood pulp will be about 21.0 tons and chemical mechanical pulp will be about 20.9 tons this week [4][21]. - **Capacity Utilization of Hardwood Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 76.6%, up 0.3% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 87.1%, up 0.4% week - on - week [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, the domestic pulp production was 212.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2 tons (or +2.51%) [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical Pulp and Hardwood Pulp**: In July 2025, the domestic chemical mechanical pulp production was 89.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 tons (or +4.8%), with a capacity utilization rate of 84.2%, down 0.8% month - on - month; the hardwood pulp production was 91.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 tons (or +2.92%), with a capacity utilization rate of 83.0%, up 2.4% month - on - month [31]. - **Monthly Production Profit of Hardwood Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: In July 2025, the production profit of hardwood pulp was 512.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.1 yuan/ton (or +3.87%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 307.9 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month loss reduction of 69 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In July 2025, the pulp import volume was 287.68 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.38 tons (or -5.08%), and a year - on - year increase of 55.22 tons (or +23.75%) [36]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 28.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 tons (or +0.68%); the capacity utilization rate was 63.5%, up 0.4% week - on - week [40]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 7.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 tons (or +1.3%); the offset paper production was 20.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons (or -1.43%) [42]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the white cardboard production was 31.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 tons (or +2.61%); the white board paper production was 18.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons (or -3.23%); the corrugated paper production was 46.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 tons (or -1.93%); the boxboard paper production was 61.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.92 tons (or +1.51%) [45][48]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the prices of tissue paper and cultural paper remained stable compared to the previous week; the price of white board paper increased slightly, while the price of white cardboard remained stable; the price of corrugated paper increased slightly, while the price of boxboard paper remained stable [49][52][55]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tissue paper was 65.33%, up 2.33% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 74.59%, up 1.29% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of offset paper was 55.96%, down 0.41% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper was 57.6%, up 1.25% month - on - month [57][59]. - **Domestic Actual Pulp Consumption**: In July 2025, the actual pulp consumption was 332.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.6 tons (or +3.94%), and a year - on - year increase of 10.6 tons (or +3.3%) [63]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall pulp port inventory shows an accumulation trend, with the inventory of mainstream port samples at 209.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons (or +2.49%); among them, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 137.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 tons (or -0.72%); the inventory at Changshu Port was 53.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons (or +10.52%); the inventory at Tianjin Port was 6.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons (or +5.0%) [64][68]. - **Pulp Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 24.18 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2455 tons (or -1.01%); the total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 22.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1856 tons (or -0.82%) [69].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 2,288 tons to 19,600 tons week-on-week, with a slight increase in the production of spodumene and mica. In July, Chile exported 13,600 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 33% increase month-on-month and a 13% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 692 tons to 142,400 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has stopped production, creating a short - term supply - demand gap [6]. - Demand side: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side. In July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the terminal market were 987,000 units, a 12.0% increase year-on-year and an 11.2% decrease month-on-month [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [6]. - Strategy: In the short term, the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine will create a supply - demand gap of thousands of tons, and it is expected that the lithium price will be strong. If the mine resumes production quickly, the lithium price may fall. If the scope of mine shutdowns expands, the lithium price center will further increase [6]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Supply Side - **Lithium spodumene imports**: From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In June, the import volume was 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month-on-month. In May, imports from Australia decreased by 31% month-on-month, from South Africa increased by 87% month-on-month, and from Zimbabwe increased by 3% month-on-month [10]. - **Lithium concentrate price**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [13]. - **Domestic lithium carbonate production**: In July, China's monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded 80,000 tons for the first time, a 4% increase month-on-month and a 26% increase year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling increased by 14% and 10% respectively month-on-month, while that from lepidolite and salt lakes decreased by 8% and 2% respectively [16]. - **Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China**: From January to June, China's cumulative import of lithium carbonate was 118,000 tons, a 11.3% increase year-on-year. In June, Chile exported 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. - **Spot price**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton, also with a slight week-on-week increase [23]. Demand Side - **Positive electrode factory capacity utilization**: From January to June, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate positive electrodes was 1.48 million tons, a 47.8% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production of ternary positive electrodes was 278,000 tons, a 9.9% increase year-on-year. In May, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.8%, and that of ternary materials was 49.5% [30]. - **Global new energy vehicle market**: From January to May this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million units, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million units, a 23.3% increase year-on-year, and US sales were 517,000 units, a 9.9% increase year-on-year [34]. - **China's new energy vehicle market**: From January to June, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 6.934 million units, a 40.3% increase year-on-year. From July 1st to July 20th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 537,000 units, a 23% increase year-on-year and a 12% decrease month-on-month [37]. - **Power battery production**: In June, China's total production of power and other batteries was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase month-on-month and a 51.4% increase year-on-year. From January to June, the cumulative production was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% increase year-on-year [42]. - **Domestic mobile phone shipments**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [47]. - **New energy storage installation**: From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new - type energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% increase in power and a 112.94% increase in capacity year-on-year. In June, the installed capacity was 2.33 GW/5.63 GWh, a significant decrease year-on-year and month-on-month [50]. - **August downstream production scheduling**: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side [56]. Other Indicators - **Non - integrated lithium salt factory cost**: The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene is 79,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,201 yuan/ton week-on-week. The theoretical production profit is - 11,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 201 yuan/ton week-on-week [53]. - **Basis**: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 5,060, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The basis of the contract turned negative [59]. - **Contract spread**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, with the spread increasing by 920 compared to last week [64].

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Copper Weekly Report 20250811 [2] - Researchers: Wang Yanhong, Zhang Jiefu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - In the macro - aspect, copper prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation within 78000 - 78500. After the copper tariff was implemented, the first stage of COMEX copper's sharp decline to narrow the price difference ended. US "hard data" started to weaken, with the manufacturing level hitting a 9 - month low and three - month non - farm payroll data being sluggish. The market anticipates a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear. In China, risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [4][91]. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, the term structure continued to flatten, and China's copper output in July reached a new high. The key lies in overseas fundamental changes, especially the future flow of 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (a 170,000 - ton increase this year). It may flow back to the LME copper market, and the price may be adjusted through COMEX copper's continued decline and a subsequent strength reversal [4][91]. - Regarding the strategy, the domestic copper price game has become dull with both long and short positions reducing. Since the main price variables are overseas and it is currently in a window of macro - expectation changes with a flat fundamental situation, some put - option positions can be added in the low - volatility environment [4][91]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - **PMI and Economic Data**: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, and China declined. The US manufacturing PMI hit a 9 - month low, and China's manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders decreased, raw material prices rose, and finished - product inventory declined [13][14]. - **Interest - rate Expectations**: The US "hard data" weakened, and the market expects a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear [14]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [14]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - **Global Production**: In 2024, the global copper mine output was 22.835 million tons, a 2.54% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative output was 9.524 million tons, a 3.27% increase. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus in 2025 [22]. - **China's Imports**: In 2024, China imported 28.114 million tons of copper concentrate, a 2.1% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative import was 14.7543 million tons, a 6.4% increase, but the import data in June declined [26]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - The SMM import copper concentrate index on August 8 was - 38.06 dollars/ton, up 4.03 dollars/ton from the previous week. The PT Gresik smelter's extended maintenance and the approaching expiration of Indonesia's export quota led to a rise in spot TC [31]. Refined Copper Production - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper output increased by 3.94 tons month - on - month. It is expected to decline by 0.6 tons in August due to supply shortages [37]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper and exported 457,500 tons. In 2025, from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons (an 8.6% decrease), and exports were 307,900 tons (a 1.97% increase) [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 2.25 million tons of copper scrap. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.1454 million tons, a 0.5% decrease. The import source structure changed [48]. Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, power investment increased by 12.14%, and grid investment increased by 15.26%. In 2025, from January to June, power investment increased by 5.9%, and grid investment increased by 14.6% [53]. - **Wire and Cable**: Related to grid investment, no detailed new data provided [55]. - **Air - conditioning**: In 2024, the air - conditioning output increased by 9.7%. In 2025, from January to June, it increased by 5.5%, and the industry entered the off - season [58]. - **Automobile**: From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, real - estate completion and new - start areas declined. In June 2025, the completion area declined by 14.3%, and the decline narrowed [66]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the three exchanges was 502,000 tons, a 28,000 - ton increase. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 79,000 tons, a 2,100 - ton decrease [72]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions - As of August 5, the CFTC non - commercial long net positions were 20,686 lots, a 16,661 - lot decrease. Both long and short positions decreased [74]. Premiums and Discounts - As of August 8, the LME copper spot was at a discount of - 69.55 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium first declined and then rose. Imported goods will suppress the premium in the future [85]. Basis - As of August 8, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 210 yuan/ton [87]. Strategy - In the current situation of dull domestic copper - price game, with major price variables overseas, in the window of macro - expectation changes and flat fundamentals, add some put - option positions in the low - volatility environment [4][91]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Short - and medium - term strategy: The anti - involution trading is over, and the market returns to the fundamental reality. The expectation that zinc will shift from balance to surplus remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out short positions on rallies [6]. - Macro aspect: As of August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 9.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 90.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 4.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 46.5% [7]. - Fundamental aspect: Last week, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market eased, and zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Inventory showed a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventories continued to decline while domestic inventories continued to accumulate, which is the result of the geographical differentiation of refined zinc output. Overseas smelters face high costs. With the long - term treatment charge (TC) at a record low, high - cost overseas smelters are under great loss pressure, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization and production cuts. In contrast, domestic smelters have low costs and currently enjoy good smelting profits from both long - term and spot TCs. As a result, domestic smelting output has increased significantly, with the output in July having a year - on - year growth rate of over 20%. The trend of an expanding import loss of refined zinc also reflects the different situations of smelting at home and abroad. It is expected that the import loss will continue to widen, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the refined zinc export window opening. From a global perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore has gradually become looser, and the increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. Although the transmission from mine - end production increase to smelting output expansion has been delayed due to production cuts by overseas smelters, considering the sufficient existing and new smelting capacities in China, which can absorb the incremental output from the mine end, the increase in global zinc ore output will ultimately translate into an increase in refined zinc production. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden concern of a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the current level. Whether the demand is estimated to be relatively optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, which will put downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part I: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate Output - In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% [8]. - The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80 per ton, the lowest in history and halved compared to the previous year. High - cost overseas smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was severely overestimated, and the trend of a marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed as shown by the change in spot TC [8]. 2.2 Zinc Concentrate Import Volume and Treatment Charge - From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate in China was 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports has boosted the TC [11]. - As of August 8, according to SMM, the TC for imported zinc concentrate was reported at $82.3 per ton, and the TC for domestic zinc concentrate was reported at 3,900 yuan per ton. Both domestic and imported ore TCs have been raised several times recently [11]. 2.3 Smelter Profit Estimation - As the TC has been continuously raised, the smelter's profit has been continuously improved [14]. 2.4 Refined Zinc Output - In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18% [18]. - In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc output was 601,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. As the profit recovers, the output is gradually increasing [18]. 2.5 Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 180,000 tons [20]. - The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part II: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side 3.1 Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.31% [25]. - The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. 3.2 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) slowed down [27]. - The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction starts and construction were still weak [27]. 3.3 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic automobile output was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% [30]. - In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted in stages, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. Part III: Other Indicators 4.1 Inventory - During the off - season, the social inventory of zinc has been continuously accumulating. With the continuous increase in domestic smelter output, the trend of social inventory accumulation will continue [32]. 4.2 Spot Premium or Discount - As of August 8, the LME 0 - 3 premium or discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.23 per ton [35]. - With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium has declined [35]. 4.3 Exchange Position - As of August 1, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 25,513 lots [38]. - The weighted position volume of SHFE zinc has declined recently [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Views - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased; the reported meeting between Trump and Putin is expected to have a significant short - term impact on the market; China's July CPI data beat expectations, and under the influence of "anti - involution" and positive policy expectations, the probability of macro funds entering the market to go long has increased [6]. - After the Fed's July FOMC meeting and China's mid - year economic meeting, the short - term macro environment is in a window period, but the Trump - Putin meeting may increase market volatility. Currently, the Shanghai aluminum industry is in the off - season, with a slightly wider spot discount, general overall trading, and still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The 21,000 level is an important resistance level. Considering that social inventory is still relatively low compared to the same period, and the sentiment in China's capital market remains strong under expectation guidance, it has a strong driving effect on the Shanghai aluminum price. Therefore, the market is likely to oscillate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 [8]. Summary by Directory Alumina - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In June, the in - production capacity increased by 3.65 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly. The weekly domestic arrival volume of ore increased, but the shipment volume from Guinea decreased significantly. In June 2025, China's net alumina exports were 68,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease, with 15 consecutive months of net exports, and the export profit margin slightly narrowed [9]. - In July 2025, China's total alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.65% and a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 94.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.37% and a month - on - month increase of 1.5 million tons [11]. - In June 2025, China's alumina output was 7.7493 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the cumulative output this year was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - In July 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 83.75%, at a moderately high level in history, returning to the same level as last year, with a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. There is still significant upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating high supply elasticity [17]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Cost - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $77 per ton, up $0.5 per ton from the previous week; the CIF average price of Australian bauxite remained unchanged at $69 per ton [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,640 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.27% [30]. Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,847.8 yuan per ton, with a profit of 418 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The alumina export profit was 73 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 26 yuan per ton [9][33][36]. Inventory - As of August 7, the port inventory of alumina was 310,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons [39]. Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply situation. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In June, it returned to an oversupply pattern [42]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In July 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68% and a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 98.40, with a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the cumulative output this year was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [24][48]. - In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.78, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. It is at a historically high level, and there is limited upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating low supply elasticity [51]. - In June 2025, China's net electrolytic aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 58,600 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 18,300 tons; the cumulative net imports from January to June were 1.1635 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,700 tons. The import channel for electrolytic aluminum has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - As of August 7, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,275 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 320 yuan per ton. The scrap - to - primary aluminum price differential was 1,545 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 90 yuan per ton [58]. - In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons; the cumulative imports from January to June were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.88%. The monthly import volume is currently increasing year - on - year but has declined significantly month - on - month and is approaching the level of the same period in 2024. Future imports may still be affected by tariff policies [61]. Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.8737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the cumulative output this year was 32.7679 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [64]. - In June 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 166,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the cumulative output this year was 909,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [67]. Cost - The domestic spot price of alumina was relatively stable, while the overseas spot price increased slightly in the short term [70]. - The latest price of pre - baked anodes was 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [73]. - The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,670 yuan per ton, and the latest price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan per ton, both unchanged week - on - week [76]. Profit - The recent smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum was 16,899 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan per ton. Based on cost calculations and the spot aluminum price, the overall profit of electrolytic aluminum was 3,850 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 122 yuan per ton [79]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum was 1,533 yuan per ton, a significant week - on - week widening of 156 yuan per ton [82]. Inventory - As of August 7, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major consumption areas was 566,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 tons, with no change during the week. The overall inventory increased week - on - week, but the rate of increase slowed significantly during the week, indicating off - season characteristics in the downstream [85]. - In July 2025, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 545,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons. The absolute value is currently at a historically low level, returning to the level of the same period in 2023 [88]. - As of August 7, the domestic inventory of aluminum rods was 138,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons and a decrease of 56,000 tons during the week. The current inventory of aluminum rods remains relatively high compared to the same period in history [91]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China ranged from 20,460 to 20,710 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 140 yuan per ton. The spot price was quoted against the August contract. The spot price increased with the market, the spot discount widened, and the off - season deepened. The downstream's acceptance of high prices continued to decline, and overall trading was general [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: The US tariff policy has increased the average import tariff to the highest level in a century, leading to complex international trade situations and increasing the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The weak US non - farm payrolls data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data have raised market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for precious metals [3]. - Capital: Last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month. Gold ETF funds inflows increased, while silver ETF funds inflows slowed. Hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold, and the non - commercial net long positions in silver slightly decreased [3]. - Strategy: Multiple factors are positive for precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will be strong in the short - term. The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, with an upward trend in the short - term. For the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to short - term long - entry opportunities and buy on dips in the medium - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: The prices of gold and silver in both domestic and foreign markets generally increased last week. For example, the spot price of gold in the London market increased by 1.41%, and the COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.24%. The prices of silver also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - Gold - to - Silver Ratio: The gold - to - silver ratio in both domestic and foreign markets decreased last week, and it is expected to continue to repair under the loose monetary policy, which will open up the price elasticity space for silver [10]. - Price Difference: The price difference between domestic and foreign precious metals slightly increased. The US tariff policy and economic data have affected the market, and precious metals showed a strong trend [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Factors - US Dollar Index: Weak US economic data has increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut, causing the US dollar index to weaken and providing support for precious metal prices [14]. - US Treasury Yields: The real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries decreased slightly, increasing market concerns about the US economic slowdown and being positive for precious metals [17]. - Key Economic Data: In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The CPI in June also rebounded. The July ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the services PMI was 50.1, indicating a slowdown in the economy. Retail sales in June rebounded, and employment data showed a weakening labor market [23][26][29][32]. - Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The weak economic data has significantly increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Trump's nomination of a dovish Fed governor has further pushed up the rate - cut expectations [35]. - Central Bank Gold Buying: 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. The global central bank's gold - buying trend provides support for precious metal prices [37]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: As of August 5, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 13,500 lots to 237,100 lots, while CMX silver speculative net long positions decreased by 8,700 lots to 50,700 lots [40]. - ETF Positions: As of August 8, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.56 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 65.86 tons [41]. 3.4 Other Elements - Inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.34% to 38.585 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.03% to 506.4924 million ounces. Low silver inventories and strong industrial demand provide room for price increases [45]. - Demand: In August 2025, the global gold reserve increased, and the total global gold demand in the second quarter increased by 3% year - on - year. The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage in 2025, with strong industrial demand [48]. - Key Events This Week: The US will release economic data such as CPI, PPI, and retail sales, and Fed officials will give speeches, which may provide more guidance for the Fed's rate - cut decision [51].

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Glass: Market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the restocking intensity at the end of the month. The fundamental situation has weakened in the short term, with frequent regulatory actions from the exchange, so short - term risks should be vigilant. [1][40] -纯碱: The fundamental situation has not improved, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is significantly affected by macro - emotions, and subsequent changes in market sentiment should be monitored. [1][5] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash - **Price**: Spot prices remained stable this week, with the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remaining stable. Futures prices were weakly stable last week, with the main SA2509 contract closing at 1249 (-7), the 9 - 1 spread at - 83 (-6), and the basis of the main 09 contract at +95 (-9). [6][10] - **Supply**: Last week, soda ash production was 744,600 tons (+24,700, +3.46%), with light soda ash production at 321,200 tons (+9,900) and heavy soda ash production at 423,400 tons (+14,800). The operating rate was 85.41% (+5.14%). [5][16] - **Demand**: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%; the overall production - sales rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14%. Demand weakened slightly last week, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a rigid - demand basis. Net exports decreased. [5][25] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8651 million tons (+69,300, +3.86%), with light soda ash inventory at 717,600 tons (+24,600) and heavy soda ash inventory at 114,750 tons (+44,700). [5][32] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of the dual - ton combined - soda process was +68.5 yuan/ton (-38), and the profit of the ammonia - soda process was +56.2 yuan/ton (-0.9), remaining basically flat overall. [5][37] 2. Glass - **Price**: Spot prices were stable with a slight decline last week. The main 2509 contract closed at 1063 (-39), the 9 - 1 spread was - 133 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +197 (-1). [40][41][48] - **Supply**: Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 159,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The production was 110.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%. The operating rate was 75.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [40][54] - **Demand**: As of the end of July, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 compared to the previous period. Downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate market recovery was weak, while the automobile production and sales situation in June was at a relatively high level in recent years. [40][63] - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.95%. Inventory increased in all regions. [40][70] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +111.05 yuan/ton (-27.09); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was - 150.36 yuan/ton (+0); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was - 130.57 yuan/ton (-7.14). Industry profits were stable in the short term. [40][84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: This week, the supply - demand structure of steel products continued to weaken. The market sentiment was still volatile due to the continuous speculation of production cuts by Tangshan rolling mills. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position in the short - term and focus on the callback space [5]. - **Iron Ore**: This week, the supply of iron ore was relatively stable, and the demand changed little. The supply - demand structure change was neutral. In the short - term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the decline may be smaller than that of steel products. The recommended strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The spot price of steel products decreased slightly, and the futures market fluctuated. The Shanghai rebar futures contract 10 rose 10 to close at 3213, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 to 3340 yuan/ton [9][12]. - **Supply**: The blast furnace operation rate increased slightly, while the EAF production decreased slightly. The total supply of the five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons to 869.21 tons this week. Rebar production increased by 10.12 tons, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7.9 tons [13][25]. - **Demand**: The demand for building materials decreased, and the demand for plates weakened slightly. The national concrete shipment volume decreased by 3.13% week - on - week. In July, the domestic demand for plates weakened significantly due to the unexpected decline in automobile sales [26][31]. - **Profit**: The profit of long - process production remained high, while the profit of EAF production decreased. The blast furnace profit rate was 68.4%, and the average profit of independent EAF construction steel mills was - 35 yuan/ton [32][34]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of building materials continued to increase, and the inventory of plates accumulated at an accelerated pace. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23.47 tons to 1375.36 tons [35][38]. - **Basis**: The basis of building materials narrowed significantly, and the basis of plates widened. The rebar 10 basis narrowed by 30 to 117, and the hot - rolled coil basis widened by 23 to 12 [42][44]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread was - 73, and the inversion deepened by 19 compared with last week. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread [45][47]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread widened. The current spread is at a moderately high level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity for the 01 spread to narrow [48][50]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The spot price of iron ore fluctuated, and the futures market had a narrow - range movement. The 09 contract rose 7 to close at 790, and the spot price of Rizhao Port PB fines rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [54][56]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased, and the supply from distant sources tightened. The 47 - port arrival volume increased by 303 tons to 2622.4 tons [57][65]. - **Rigid Demand**: The pig iron production decreased slightly, and the demand declined slightly. The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons compared with last week [66][68]. - **Speculative Demand**: The port trading volume decreased, and the downstream restocking was weak. The average daily port trading volume last week was 95.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons compared with the previous week [69][72]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly. As of August 8, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14267.27 tons, an increase of 45 tons compared with the previous week [73][75]. - **Downstream Inventory**: The steel mill inventory decreased slightly. The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 74.41 tons to 2756.28 tons [76][78]. - **Shipping**: The shipping freight rates showed mixed trends. The freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 0.31 dollars/ton to 9.98 dollars/ton, and the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao increased by 0.27 dollars/ton to 24.075 dollars/ton [79][81]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread narrowed, and the futures and spot prices were basically at parity. The 9 - 1 spread narrowed by 9.5 to 16.5, and the 09 contract was at a discount of 3.3 [83][85].