1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp market lacks clear guidance, and pulp prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the ongoing deadlock in the supply - demand fundamentals, high port inventories, abundant spot market supplies, no substantial improvement in downstream demand, and low operating rates, the price of the pulp 2511 contract is predicted to fluctuate between 5110 - 5320 this week [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Coniferous pulp prices remained relatively stable, while broad - leaf pulp prices declined. Among them, broad - leaf pulp such as Jin Yu, Xiao Niao, and A Er Pai decreased by 0.97%, 1.22%, and 1.22% respectively. Chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, natural pulp declined, and sugarcane pulp increased. The chemical mechanical pulp Kun He in Shandong was quoted at 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the natural pulp Jin Xing was quoted at 4900 yuan/ton, down 2.0%; the sugarcane pulp in South China was quoted at 4000 yuan/ton, up 2.56% [11][13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated horizontally within a 100 - point range last week, closing at 5192 yuan/ton on the weekly line, with no change from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 122.0 million lots, a decrease of 49.9 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 29.3 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 million lots [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The contango of the futures - spot basis widened slightly. The basis contango between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 688 yuan/ton, 24 yuan/ton wider than the previous week [18]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, closing at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter on the weekly line, up 1.1% from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 12.2 million lots, a decrease of 0.879 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 3.15 million lots, an increase of 0.43 million lots [19]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week's pulp production was 47.9 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons (0.21%) compared to the previous week. It is expected that the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp will be about 20.7 tons and chemical mechanical pulp will be about 20.5 tons [21]. - **Weekly Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.3%, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 86.7%, a decrease of 1.2% [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, domestic pulp production was 212.4 tons, a 2.51% increase compared to the previous month [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical and Broad - leaf Pulp**: In July 2025, the production of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 89.6 tons, a 4.8% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.2%, a decrease of 0.8%. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 91.7 tons, a 2.92% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.0%, an increase of 2.4% [31]. - **Monthly Production Margin of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: In July 2025, the production margin of broad - leaf pulp was 512.7 yuan/ton, a 3.87% increase compared to the previous month. The production margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 307.9 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 69 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In June 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.0306 million tons, a 0.48% increase compared to the previous month and a 16.12% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 18.5777 million tons, a 4.2% increase compared to the same period last year [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 27.86 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons (0.14%) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 63.1%, a decrease of 0.1% [41]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, copperplate paper production was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (1.28%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 56.6%, a decrease of 1.3%. Offset paper production was 21 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (6.06%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.0%, an increase of 1.6% [44]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, white cardboard production was 30.7 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons (3.02%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.74%, a decrease of 1.94%. Corrugated paper production was 46.17 tons, a decrease of 0.91 tons (1.93%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.9%, a decrease of 1.22%. Boxboard paper production was 61.91 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons (1.51%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.68%, an increase of 1.32% [47][50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Tissue paper prices remained stable, while cultural paper prices declined. Whiteboard paper and white cardboard prices were basically stable. Corrugated paper prices increased slightly, and boxboard paper prices remained stable [51][53][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tissue paper was 65.33%, an increase of 2.33% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 74.59%, an increase of 1.29% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of offset paper was 55.96%, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper was 57.6%, an increase of 1.25% compared to the previous month [58][60]. - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In July 2025, the predicted domestic demand was 3.23 million tons, the predicted consumption was 3.215 million tons, and the actual pulp consumption was 3.321 million tons, an increase of 3.94% compared to the previous month and 3.3% compared to the same period last year [64]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (2.71%) compared to the previous week. Among them, Qingdao Port's inventory is 1.385 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (1.42%); Changshu Port's inventory is 485,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (5.64%); Tianjin Port's inventory is 60,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (3.23%) [67][70]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are 244,200 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.69%) compared to the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 225,000 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.75%) [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA lacks new drivers and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to limited changes in domestic installations, a slight warming in the terminal atmosphere, and a lack of significant contradictions between supply and demand [1][5]. - MEG is in a de - stocking cycle, with limited downside space. The supply - demand structure is relatively optimistic, and it is expected to undergo narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: OPEC+ production increase brought bearish pressure, geopolitical tensions eased, and the global economy remained weak, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to cost reduction and poor terminal support. As of August 8, the Asian PX closing price was $831.67 per ton CFR China, down $14 per ton from August 1 [17]. - **PX Device Status**: There were no device changes during the week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 82.35%, unchanged from the previous week; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 71.95%, a decrease of 0.03% [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Difference**: As of August 8, the PX - naphtha price difference was $261.2 per ton, up $19.38 per ton from August 1. The downstream market was in the off - season, and the terminal market support was poor, but with the commissioning of new PTA devices, there was an expected increase in demand, resulting in narrow - range fluctuations in the PX - naphtha price difference [23]. 3.2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, some installations in East China were shut down for maintenance or reduced production due to efficiency issues, leading to a significant reduction in overall supply. The terminal was in the traditional off - season, and demand changes were minimal. The supply - demand balance sheet shifted to de - stocking. However, due to the impact of OPEC production increase on crude oil prices, the PTA price center oscillated downward. As of August 8, the PTA spot price was 4,670 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 17 [26]. - **Device Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA dropped to 75.92%, a decrease of 3.75% compared to the previous week. Multiple installations in East China were shut down or under maintenance, and some enterprises reduced production due to efficiency issues, resulting in a significant reduction in domestic production this period. In August, with the mass production of Hailun Petrochemical and maintenance plans of Tongkun, Yisheng, and Hengli, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA devices may drop to around 74% [29]. - **Processing Fees**: The processing fees of PTA decreased significantly this week due to increased long - term supply pressure, active sales by major producers, and tight supply of raw material PX. With an expected increase in supply and average demand, the supply - demand balance sheet shows narrow - range de - stocking. However, due to efficiency issues, some enterprises reduced production. PTA is expected to rebound at a low valuation, and the processing fees may be slightly repaired [30]. - **Supply - Demand Balance in August**: In August, with the mass production of new PTA devices and multiple planned maintenance installations, and considering the potential reduction in polyester load due to continuous losses, the supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - range balance [33]. 3.3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: At the beginning of the week, influenced by crude oil and macro factors, the price of ethylene glycol declined. However, the de - stocking of supply and demand provided positive support, limiting the market decline. When the price dropped to around 4,450 yuan, it stabilized and rebounded. As of August 8, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4,456 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,480 yuan per ton [39]. - **Device Utilization**: The overall capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China was 61.42%, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 58.28%, a decrease of 0.39%, and the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 66.47%, an increase of 2.59%. In August, for domestic production, some existing devices will restart and undergo maintenance simultaneously, and the restart of a major factory in Jiangsu is postponed, resulting in a slight increase in overall production [42]. - **Port Inventory**: As of August 7, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 48.57 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons compared to August 4 and an increase of 5.85 tons compared to July 31. As of August 13, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 10.17 tons, including 3.57 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5.9 tons in Taicang, and 0.7 tons in Jiangyin [45]. - **Processing Profits**: The supply - demand de - stocking logic still exists. After a decline this week, ethylene glycol rebounded. The prices of the raw material market fluctuated, resulting in both increases and decreases in the sample profits of each ethylene glycol process. As of August 8, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $98.67 per ton, a decrease of $14.29 per ton compared to the previous week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 21.33 yuan per ton, a decrease of 93.53 yuan compared to the previous week [48]. 3.4. Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 86.21%, a 0.39% increase compared to the previous week. After the commissioning of Youshun's new device, the load gradually increased, and Huaya's device restarted after a short - term shutdown, resulting in a slight increase in domestic polyester supply. It is expected that the domestic polyester production will increase slightly next week [51]. - **Terminal Impact on Polyester**: In July, polyester factories were affected by terminal restrictions and poor profit levels, resulting in a decline in the polyester operating rate, but the decline was limited. In August, with both maintenance and restart plans and new device commissioning, but considering the poor demand outlook, it is expected that the monthly polyester production will decline slightly [52]. - **Differentiation in Polyester Product Capacity Utilization**: This week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 90.66%, a 0.85% decrease compared to the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 86.49%, a 1.81% increase compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.36%, a 1.85% increase compared to the previous week [57]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: Due to pre - replenishment, the factory sales data was average this week, and the finished product inventory increased slightly [58]. - **Polyester Product Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased slightly. Polyester products were mostly in a wait - and - see state this week, with limited downward space and partial cash - flow repair [62]. - **Textile Industry Situation**: As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, a 0.24% increase compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 6.84 days, a decrease of 0.49 days compared to the previous week. In August, the inquiry atmosphere for domestic autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but due to high inventory in fabric production factories and sufficient supplies from middlemen, there was no significant improvement in domestic and foreign orders, and factories had little intention to increase production [67]. 3.5. Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost End**: OPEC+ production increase brought bearish pressure, geopolitical tensions eased, and the global economy remained weak, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to cost reduction and poor terminal support [68]. - **Supply End**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA dropped to 75.92%, a 3.75% decrease compared to the previous week, and domestic production decreased significantly. The total capacity utilization rate of domestic ethylene glycol was 61.42%, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week [69]. - **Demand End**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 86.21%, a 0.39% increase compared to the previous week. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, a 0.24% increase compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 6.84 days, a decrease of 0.49 days compared to the previous week. The inquiry atmosphere for domestic autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but there was no significant improvement in orders, and factories had little intention to increase production [69]. - **Inventory**: PTA was in a de - stocking state this week. As of August 7, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 48.57 tons, an increase compared to the previous period [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the coal mine over - production inspection intensified again, and some coal mines in Shanxi received notices to organize production according to the 276 - working - day plan. The sentiment of going long on coking coal remained strong, driving up the price of coking coal and coke. The downstream procurement rhythm of coking coal and coke slowed down, and speculative demand weakened. However, the supply - side disturbances in coal mines may last until around the National Day, so coking coal is still prone to rise and hard to fall. After a short - term rapid increase, the upward momentum is expected to weaken. Coke has few contradictions and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend supported by coking coal costs. The strategy is to exit short positions in coking coal and focus on the 9 - 1 reverse spread [3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Coke Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - The futures market rallied again last week, and it is prone to rise in the short term. The fifth round of spot price increases was implemented, and the sixth round has started. The steam freight rate remained stable. For example, the coke 01 contract rose 4.55% to 1734. The prices of various types of coke in different regions and ports all increased to varying degrees, such as the Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price rising from 1180 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton [6][8][9]. 1.2 Supply - Coke enterprise profitability improved slightly, and the supply of independent coke enterprises increased slightly. As of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of the national independent coke enterprise full - sample was 74.03%, a 0.34 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the daily coke output was 65.1 tons, a 0.29 - ton increase from the previous week. However, the coking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 86.3%, and the daily coke output decreased by 0.17 tons to 46.8 tons [27][33]. 1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong rigid demand support. Speculative goods increased, export profits declined, and the daily trading volume of building material spot improved slightly. As of August 8, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.75%, a 0.29 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, a 0.15 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the daily pig iron output was 240.32 tons, a 0.39 - ton decrease from the previous week; and the steel mill profitability rate was 68.4%, a 3.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [36]. 1.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased slightly, while steel mills' and coking plants' inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined. As of August 8, the total coke inventory decreased by 8.25 tons to 907.16 tons, with port inventory increasing by 3.05 tons to 218.15 tons, independent coke enterprise full - sample inventory decreasing by 3.89 tons to 69.73 tons, and 247 sample steel mill inventory decreasing by 7.41 tons to 619.28 tons [42][45]. 1.5 Profit - Coke enterprise profitability improved slightly, but the coke futures market profit continued to decline. The national 30 independent coke enterprise sample had a ton - coke profit of - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week. The coke 01 futures market profit decreased by 64.85 yuan/ton to 138.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [53]. 1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened oscillatingly. The coke 01 basis decreased by 56.2 to - 206.42 compared to the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 39 to - 83 compared to the previous week [57]. 2. Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - The futures market rallied again last week, and it is prone to rise in the short term. The spot price increase slowed down. For example, the coking coal 01 contract rose 10.04% to 1227. The prices of various types of coking coal in different regions and origins showed different trends, such as the price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal dropping from 1500 yuan/ton to 1480 yuan/ton [60][62][63]. 2.2 Supply - The supply in the production area was still restricted, the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly, the number of customs - cleared vehicles of Mongolian coal rebounded, and the import of coking coal from January to June decreased year - on - year. As of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.22%, a 1.19 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the daily clean coal output was 26.04 tons, a 0.59 - ton increase from the previous week. In 2025, from January to June, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 52.9 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 7.26% [71][74]. 2.3 Inventory - The downstream replenishment rhythm slowed down, the coal mine inventory reduction slowed down, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of August 8, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 5.21 tons to 26.0769 million tons, with mine enterprise coking coal inventory decreasing by 2.6 tons to 245.66 tons, port inventory decreasing by 4.77 tons to 277.34 tons, coal washing plant clean coal inventory increasing by 2.1 tons to 288.11 tons, independent coke enterprise full - sample inventory decreasing by 4.81 tons to 9.8792 million tons, and 247 sample steel mill inventory increasing by 4.87 tons to 8.866 million tons [77][80]. 2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 01 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread both weakened. The coking coal 01 basis decreased by 134.5 to - 232 compared to the previous week. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50 to - 157.5 compared to the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 39 to - 11.5 compared to the previous week [92][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Fundamentals: Since July, the cease - fire between Israel and Hamas has cooled the Middle East tension, weakening the impact of geopolitical conflicts on precious metal prices. The U.S. tariff trade policy is fickle. Trump postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9th to August 1st and sent tariff letters to trading partners. Trade progress boosts the U.S. dollar and market risk sentiment, while deadlocks in negotiations with some countries support the safe - haven appeal of precious metals. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rising, precious metal prices are expected to break through the oscillation range. COMEX gold futures reached a high of $3451.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures hit $39.91 per ounce [3]. - Capital: Last month, COMEX gold and silver inventories increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. Gold and silver ETF fund inflows increased, and hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold. The global demand and reserves of gold maintained growth, and ETF investment demand remained strong, providing bottom support for precious metal prices [3]. - Strategy: As tariff sentiment eases, the impact of trade policy changes on precious metal prices will gradually weaken. The weak U.S. labor data and the rising expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut will boost precious metal prices. The Shanghai gold price is bullish in the long - term, has an upward trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. The Shanghai silver price shows a slight increase in the short - term, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities and buy on dips in the medium - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Key Indicator Changes: COMEX gold futures rose 1.97% to $3416 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased 2.37% to $37.11 per ounce. COMEX gold inventory rose 4.5% to 3871.56 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased 1.09% to 50666.16 million ounces. The speculative net long - position of COMEX gold increased 10.7% to 22.36 million lots, while that of COMEX silver decreased 6.3% to 5.94 million lots [6]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: Since July, the gold - silver ratio at home and abroad has been falling, but it is still significantly higher than the long - term average, indicating that the silver price is undervalued and has the opportunity to make up for the increase [7]. - Price Difference: The price difference between domestic and foreign markets of gold and silver has decreased compared with last month. In July, affected by tariffs and interest - rate cut expectations, precious metal prices showed an oscillating trend [10]. 3.2 Macro - environment - U.S. Dollar Index: In July, the U.S. dollar index first rose and then fell, affected by U.S. economic data and tariff policies. The strong non - farm payrolls report in early July strengthened the U.S. dollar, while the trade agreement uncertainties with Japan, the EU and other countries, along with Trump's pressure on the Fed, weakened the U.S. dollar [13]. - U.S. Treasury Yields: The real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries first rose and then fell last month, causing precious metal prices to oscillate [15]. - Key Economic Data: In June, the U.S. core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE price index rose 2.6% year - on - year. The CPI in June also rebounded. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, below expectations, while the ISM services PMI in June was 50.8, slightly higher than expected. Retail sales in June increased 0.6% month - on - month. In July, ADP employment increased by 104,000, but the labor market cooled. Non - farm payrolls in July dropped to 73,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [20][23][26]. - Fed's Decision: In July, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged with a 9 - 2 vote. There are differences within the Fed, and it maintains a wait - and - see stance. The U.S. tariff trade policy is volatile, and recent trade progress has boosted the U.S. dollar and market risk sentiment [32]. - Central Bank Gold Buying: 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase gold reserves in the next 12 months. In the second quarter of 2025, global gold demand increased 3% year - on - year. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, and global central banks' gold - buying demand will support the gold price [33]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: As of July 29, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long - positions increased by 2.16 million lots to 22.36 million lots, while CMX silver speculative net long - positions decreased by 0.4 million lots to 5.94 million lots [36]. - ETF Positions: As of August 1, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 4.85 tons to 953.08 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 187.66 tons to 15056.66 tons, indicating accelerated fund inflows into gold and silver ETFs [37]. 3.4 Other Elements - Inventory: As of August 1, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased 4.5% to 3871.56 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased 1.09% to 50666.16 million ounces [41]. - Demand: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2296.35 tons. In the second quarter of 2025, global gold demand increased 3% year - on - year. The global silver gap is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and industrial demand for silver remains strong [44]. - Outlook: As tariff sentiment eases, the impact of trade policies on precious metal prices will weaken. The U.S. labor market imbalance provides an opportunity for the Fed to cut interest rates, which will boost precious metal prices. Central banks' gold - buying strategies also support precious metal prices. However, attention should be paid to the impact of tariff implementation, economic data, and geopolitical risks [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at its late - July meeting, but the probability of a September rate cut increased, with greater internal divergence. The non - farm payrolls data on Friday night was significantly below expectations, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in precious metal prices. In China, relevant meetings have concluded, and subsequent policies are awaited [6]. - As macro events gradually land, there is likely to be a macro - policy window period, and the market is more likely to return to fundamental logic. Attention should be paid to hedging opportunities during the off - season [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina - Industry Fundamentals 3.1.1 Supply - In June 2025, China's alumina total capacity was 11,292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.56% and a month - on - month increase of 50 million tons. The in - production capacity was 9,315 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.14% and a month - on - month increase of 365 million tons [11]. - In June 2025, China's alumina production was 774.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The cumulative production this year was 4,515.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - In June 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 82.49, at a relatively high - middle position in history, returning to the same level as last year and a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. There is still significant upward space, indicating high supply elasticity [17]. - In June 2025, China's alumina net exports were 6.87 million tons, with a continuous net - export pattern for 15 months and a significant month - on - month decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative net exports were 107.18 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.1.2 Demand - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The cumulative production this year was 2,237.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [24]. 3.1.3 Cost - The Guinea bauxite price increased slightly week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $73.5 per ton, a $0.5 increase from last week. The CIF average price of Australian bauxite was $69 per ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - The caustic soda price was 3,650 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,834.3 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.1 yuan per ton. The smelting profit was 426.5 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.1 yuan per ton [33]. - The alumina export profit was 99 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 24 yuan per ton [36]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of July 31, the port inventory of alumina was 2.5 million tons, a 1.2 - million - ton decrease from July 24 [39]. 3.1.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply pattern. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In June, it returned to an oversupply pattern [42]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,520.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58% and a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million tons. The in - production capacity was 4,415.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% and a month - on - month increase of 2 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.38, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The cumulative production this year was 2,237.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [48]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.68, a year - on - year increase of 1.16% and a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. It is at a relatively high position in history, with limited upward space and low supply elasticity [51]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports were 17.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.86 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 million tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative net imports were 116.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77 million tons [56]. - On August 1, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 19,955 yuan per ton, a 245 - yuan decrease compared to July 24. The refined - scrap spread was 1,635 yuan per ton, a 75 - yuan increase compared to July 24 [58]. - In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 15.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 101.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.88% [61]. 3.2.2 Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product production was 587.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.17 million tons. The cumulative production this year was 3,276.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [64]. - In June 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 166.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2.4 million tons. The cumulative production this year was 909.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [67]. 3.2.3 Cost - The domestic alumina spot price stabilized with a slight rebound, and the overseas spot price increased slightly in the short term [70]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [73]. - The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,670 yuan per ton, and the latest price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan per ton, both unchanged week - on - week [76]. 3.2.4 Profit - The recent electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was 16,882 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan per ton. The overall profit was 3,728 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 318 yuan per ton [79]. - Currently, the electrolytic aluminum import loss was 1,377 yuan per ton, a significant week - on - week narrowing of 228 yuan per ton [82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of July 31, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major consumption areas was 54.5 million tons, a 3.3 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 1 - million - ton increase during the week [85]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 54.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.8 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 7.5 million tons. The absolute value is at a relatively low position in history, returning to the same level as in 2023 [88]. - As of July 31, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 13.99 million tons, a 0.21 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 0.14 - million - ton decrease during the week. The inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, with little weekly change [91]. 3.2.6 Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China was between 20,490 - 20,690 yuan per ton, a 310 - yuan week - on - week decrease. The spot price against the 08 contract showed a high - level decline in both the spot and futures markets, with the spot turning to a discount and the discount widening. Due to the deepening off - season, the downstream's acceptance of high prices continued to decline, and overall trading was average [94].

第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观周在即，警惕短期波动加剧 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 宏观：国内重要经济会议在即，等待"反内卷"具体政策及国内需求刺激政策落地；美联储月底议息会议将近，关注后续降息节奏；临近8月1号， 关注中美贸易关税政策。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 综合来看，短期国内盘面受"反内卷"预期炒作表现偏强，但周五夜盘已表现为大幅缓和，需警惕整体盘面价格高位回落风险。产业方面，国 内需求逐步进入淡季，加工业开工率下滑，订单减少；社库周度环比及周内均表现为累库，但整体仍偏低，铝棒库存高位，加工费处在较低位置； 现货价格表现偏强，升水快速收敛，整体成交一般。简言之，短期国内预期炒作情绪大概率会有所缓和，需警惕价格高位回落风险，但同时考虑到 下周将是宏观周，需留意宏观事件结果及对盘面的持续影响，结合沪铝持仓量不断增加，当下仍处于相对高位，预计多空博弈将加剧，会增加短期 盘面波动，关注盘面在21000一线的压力。 供给：6月，在产产能环比增加365万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - aspect, copper prices declined from a high level this week, with COMEX copper plummeting 24% in a single week, fully closing the nearly $3000 price gap with LME copper in the past six months. Overseas non - farm data was worse than expected, and previous data was significantly revised down, increasing market expectations of US economic pressure. The Fed maintained the interest rate, and Powell's slightly hawkish stance responded to Trump's administration's pressure for rate cuts. Tariffs are gradually affecting demand. In China, the "anti - involution" movement - driven price increase has ended, but policy continuity will continue, and more implemented policies need attention. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, COMEX copper's pricing of a 50% tariff in its price is unsustainable. The US domestic and export copper trade attractiveness has decreased, affecting COMEX copper positions. After the 50% tariff on downstream primary copper products and exemption for refined copper, the $3000 price gap between US and international copper prices has rapidly converged. The flow of the US's 20 - year high copper inventory and the resulting demand shock will put pressure on international copper prices, and weak demand will be reflected in LME inventory accumulation [5][89]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - **PMI**: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US and Europe declined. The euro - zone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, with Germany at 49.2% and France at 48.4%. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 3.4 percentage points month - on - month. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders both declined, and demand sub - indicators dropped faster [14]. - **Price Performance**: During the "anti - involution" movement in July, domestic commodities generally rose, but copper prices were subdued. If the 50% copper tariff is implemented, price pressure will increase. Domestic macro - policies are driving, but overseas expectations are still insufficient, with rate - cut expectations priced in for September. The Fed's independence has been repeatedly challenged, and the market is still tracking US economic data, with the latest manufacturing PMI significantly dropping below the boom - bust line [15]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper Concentrate Supply** - **Global Production**: In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, up 4.96% year - on - year, and 22.835 million tons for the whole year, up 2.54%. In 2025 May, it was 2.006 million tons, up 6.14% year - on - year, and 9.524 million tons from January to May, up 3.27%. In May 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons [23]. - **China's Imports**: In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate, up 12.3% month - on - month and 1.7% year - on - year, and 28.114 million tons for the whole year, up 2.1%. In June 2025, imports continued to decline. In May, imports were about 2.3497 million tons, up only 1.77% year - on - year, and 14.7543 million tons from January to May, up 6.4% [27]. - **TC**: On August 1, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was - $42.09 per dry ton, up $0.54 from the previous period. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 physical tons, down 39,300 physical tons from the previous period. The 2025 long - term copper concentrate processing fee benchmark was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. - **Refined Copper Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, up 3.47% and 14.21% year - on - year. From January to July, cumulative production increased by 820,800 tons, up 11.82%. In August, due to supply shortages, production is expected to decrease by 6,000 tons month - on - month, down 0.51%, but increase by 154,800 tons year - on - year, up 15.27% [37]. - **Refined Copper Imports and Exports**: In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, up 6.49% year - on - year, and exported 457,500 tons, up 63.86%. In 2025 from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons, down 8.6%, and exports were 307,900 tons, up 1.97% [43]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap, up 25% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year, and 2.25 million tons for the whole year, up 13.26%. In June 2025, imports were 183,200 physical tons, down 1.06% month - on - month but up 8.06% year - on - year. From January to June, imports were 1.1454 million tons, down 0.5% [48]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread**: The weekly operating rate of recycled copper rods was 29.96%, up 0.67 percentage points from last week and 11.52 percentage points year - on - year. The average price spread between scrap and refined copper rods was $654 per ton this week, narrowing by $321. Due to weak terminal consumption, the inventory of recycled copper rod sample enterprises increased by 700 tons to 5,950 tons [51]. - **Consumption - end** - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024 from January to December, power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, up 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, up 15.26%. In 2025 from January to June, power investment was 363.5 billion yuan, up 5.9%, and grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 14.6% [52]. - **Wire and Cable**: No specific data on wire and cable consumption was provided, only related charts. - **Air - conditioners**: In 2024 from January to December, air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, up 9.7%. In 2025 from January to June, production was 163.2961 million units, up 5.5%, with a decline in monthly production and a slowdown in year - on - year growth as the industry entered the off - season [57]. - **Automobiles**: In 2025 from January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million units, up 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, up 41.4% and 40.3% respectively, accounting for 44.3% of total vehicle sales [62]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024 from January to December, real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, down 27.7%, and new construction area was down 23%. In June 2025, the completion area was 226 million square meters, down 14.3%, and new construction area was down 20%, with the "guaranteeing housing delivery" policy showing initial results [65]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 474,000 tons, an increase of 82,900 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 48,500 tons to 141,800 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 72,500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 46,500 tons to 259,700 tons. As of July 31, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 81,100 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons [71]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Position**: As of July 29, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 37,347 contracts, an increase of 3,657 contracts. Non - commercial long positions were 74,650 contracts, with only a 25 - contract increase, and non - commercial short positions were 37,303 contracts, a decrease of 3,632 contracts [73]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of August 1, LME copper was at a spot discount of - $49.25 per ton, returning to a large - discount pattern. The domestic spot maintained a premium, but the term structure flattened, indicating weak demand. The market was in a supply - and - demand double - weak pattern, with transactions mainly for rigid demand [83]. - **Basis**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper average price and the continuous third - month contract was 310 yuan per ton [85]. Strategy - Domestic copper positions remain low, and after the sharp decline of COMEX copper, most positions have left. The multi - empty game at the current price level is not intense. More attention should be paid to LME copper variables. After taking profit on the near - month short call options, it is recommended to increase far - month put option positions at low prices. In the important time window of August - September, copper prices will face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to inventory and capital flow changes [6][90].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US non - farm payroll data for July 2025 released on the evening of August 1st was significantly weaker than expected. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population in July was 73,000, the smallest increase since October last year, far lower than the market expectation of 110,000. The total number of new jobs in May and June was 258,000 less than previously reported, and the unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, which met market expectations but made Trump urge Powell to cut interest rates [5]. - Last week, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market significantly eased, and zinc prices gradually declined. The weekly processing fee continued to rise, and the supply of zinc ore was becoming looser, which was being transmitted to the smelting end. The pressure on the zinc fundamentals was gradually accumulating [5]. - In the long - term, the supply of zinc ore is shifting to a looser state cyclically. Several large zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans in 2025. The increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and the output of refined zinc has continued to expand. It is expected that the production increase situation in the ore and smelting sectors will continue [5]. - On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach a new trade agreement and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated optimistically or pessimistically, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, which will bring downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [5]. - In the short and medium term, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market has significantly declined, the anti - involution trading has ended, and the market has returned to the fundamental reality. The long - term surplus trend of zinc remains unchanged, and short positions can still be established on rallies [5]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 1. Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and it was halved compared to the previous year. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of looser zinc ore supply on the margin remained unchanged [6]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate in China was 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports boosted the processing fee. As of August 1st, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $78.8/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,900 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [9]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [12]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 601,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. As profits rebounded, production was gradually increasing [16]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 180,000 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [18]. 2. Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In June 2025, the domestic galvanized sheet production was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.31%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of the implicit inventory in the industrial chain [23]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but the front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In June 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [28]. 3. Other Indicators - **Inventory**: During the off - season, the social inventory of zinc continued to accumulate. With the continuous increase in the output of domestic smelters, the inventory accumulation trend will continue [30]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of August 1st, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $10.96/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium declined [33]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of July 25th, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 30,194 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently declined [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Macro: On July 27, local time, US President Trump announced that the US had reached a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy US energy products worth $750 billion [5]. - Fundamental: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated and consolidated. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was volatile, and prices dropped significantly on Friday night, showing signs of a potential peak. The fundamentals of zinc have changed little recently, and anti - involution has limited impact on the zinc supply - demand pattern. It is advisable to consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. The supply of zinc ore is becoming more abundant cyclically, with several major zinc mine projects at home and abroad planning to increase production in 2025. The increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the spot TC for zinc ore. The increase in ore supply is being transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelters have increased their operating rates, postponed maintenance, and the output of refined zinc has marginally recovered. It is expected that the production increase trend in the ore and smelting sectors will continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is little expectation of an increase in total zinc demand, with demand expected to remain stable. Whether a more optimistic or pessimistic view is taken on demand, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [5]. - Strategy: In the short - to medium - term, zinc prices have been fluctuating and consolidating after rising due to commodity market sentiment. Anti - involution has limited impact on the medium - to long - term fundamental pattern of zinc. The zinc market is expected to be in surplus this year. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices after the sentiment in the domestic commodity market stabilizes [5]. Group 3: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate Production - In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared to the previous year. High - cost overseas smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term contract TC in 2024 was severely overestimated, and the trend of a marginal increase in zinc ore supply remains unchanged [6]. 2.2 Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports has pushed up processing fees. As of July 25, according to SMM, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $76.25/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [9]. 2.3 Smelter Profit Estimation - With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits have been continuously improved [12]. 2.4 Refined Zinc Production - According to ILZSG, in May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [16]. 2.5 Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 180,000 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [18]. Group 4: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side 3.1 Refined Zinc Initial - Stage Consumption - In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [23]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction starts and construction were still weak [25]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - In June 2025, China's automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43%. In some regions, national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of household appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [28]. Group 5: Other Indicators 4.1 Inventory - During the off - season, social inventories of zinc have been continuously increasing [30]. 4.2 Spot Premium/Discount - As of July 25, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $1.96/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium has declined [33]. 4.3 Exchange Positions - As of July 18, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 21,052 lots. The weighted open interest of SHFE zinc has recently declined [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New peanuts are about to be listed, and the price of peanuts has been continuously adjusted weakly this month. The new peanuts in Jiangxi and other places are listed in small quantities, and the procurement of new rice in the wholesale market is limited. The off - season procurement enthusiasm is low, and the support is insufficient. The drought in some areas may affect the growth of spring peanuts. The oil mills' purchase of oil peanuts is mostly suspended, the start - up rate is low, and the price of peanut oil is weakly adjusted. The enterprise start - up rate of peanut meal is low, and the downstream procurement is not active [6]. - The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased slightly, and the total output is expected to remain high. After the small amount of new peanuts are listed, the price has weakened. The short - term market price is likely to continue the weak trend. In the short term, the spot price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and market demand. For futures, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating for nearly a year. Given the continuous increase in planting area and unchanged demand, the short - term price is likely to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on whether the price will decline rapidly. Trend traders can try an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints - The planting area of new - season peanuts increases slightly, and the total output is expected to be high. The new peanuts in Jiangxi are listed in small quantities, and the price weakens after a small increase in supply. The short - term market price is likely to continue to decline. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and demand. Futures are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term focus is on the downward trend. Trend traders can use an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3.2 Market Review - **Overall Situation**: The peanut weighted index has been oscillating and declining this month, while the oil and fat sector has been oscillating and rising. Since September 2024, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating, and the price continued to fall this month with increased trading volume and a reduced decline, indicating some support at the lower limit of the range. The oil and fat sector is stronger than peanuts, and attention should be paid to its callback volume and price [8][10]. - **2510 Contract**: The price of the 2510 contract has been oscillating downward this month, with a rapid decline after rising. There is some buying support at around 8100, but whether the price can strengthen in the short term depends on the follow - up of buying [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Oil Mill Inventory and Start - up Rate**: The end - of - month inventory of peanut oil is 39,090 tons, a decrease of 510 tons from the previous month. The start - up rate of oil mills is 4.32%, a decrease of about 2.52% from the previous month [16]. - **Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha)**: The Baisha peanut price has been continuously weakening this month as the old peanut inventory is being consumed and the bargaining space has increased [19]. - **Peanut Oil Price Trend**: The average price of first - class ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this month is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically the same as last month [23]. - **Peanut Meal Price Trend**: The peanut meal price has been oscillating narrowly this month, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal have been oscillating upward [27]. - **Imported Peanut Quantity and Price**: The cold - storage new refined peanuts imported from Sudan are quoted at 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton with almost no stock. The Senegalese oil peanuts are quoted at 7,800 yuan/ton, with good quality at 8,000 yuan/ton and refined peanuts at 8,500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume is small. There will be few subsequent arrivals of African peanuts [31]. - **Market Price Index Compared with Last Month**: In the wholesale market, the overall peanut price is mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price is relatively stable [33]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report provides the data source for the basis spread of peanuts - Baisha but does not elaborate on the specific spread situation [35][37]