1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price fluctuated within a week, which was in line with expectations. The macro - level driving force was limited, and the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts was slightly dampened. The US economic "hard data" remained resilient, reducing the probability of the Fed's action in July. The tariff game led to pressure on the macro - sentiment. In China, the manufacturing data rebounded slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. - The mid - year long - term contract negotiation ended at $0, severely hitting the long - term profitability of smelters. The domestic production remained high, and the profit from sulfuric acid and by - products barely offset the losses. The domestic off - season deepened, the spot premium declined from its high, but due to the internal - external price difference, the increase in domestic exports weakened the inventory accumulation expectation. The LME squeeze problem was alleviated, with inventory in Asian warehouses increasing and the premium declining. - During the tariff game, the macro - expectation may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the tariff expectation game around July 9th, especially the investigation of copper 232. The copper price showed a pull - back on the weekly chart, and the strategy of selling near - month CALL and buying far - month PUT should be continued [4][85]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In June, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, unchanged from the previous month. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose 0.7% to 49%, while France's dropped 2% to 47.8%. The US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52%, unchanged from the previous month. In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, staying below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New orders and new export orders improved slightly, and the service industry PMI gradually stabilized [12]. - The US economic "hard data" was resilient, reducing the probability of the Fed's action in July. The tariff game with the July 9th deadline set by the US led to pressure on the macro - sentiment. In China, the manufacturing data rebounded slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, and the "anti - involution" action was gradually put on the agenda [4][13][85]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In 2024, the global copper mine production was 2283.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%, with a market surplus of 301,000 tons. In 2025, from January to April, the cumulative production of copper mines was 752.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%, and in April, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 252.2 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 2811.4 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, the import of copper concentrate was about 240 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the monthly average import from January to May 2025 [27]. TC - On July 4th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 44.25 dollars per dry ton, an increase of 0.56 dollars per dry ton from the previous period. The CSPT group will hold a meeting on July 11th. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory on July 4th was 666,200 physical tons, an increase of 42,700 physical tons from the previous period, mainly from Qinzhou Port. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate in 2025 was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. Refined Copper Production - In June 2025, the SMM China electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.3%, and increased by 12.93% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative production increased by 674,700 tons, an increase of 11.40%. It is expected that in July, the national electrolytic copper production will further increase by 155,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%, and by 1.222 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.88% [37]. Refined Copper Import Volume - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, the export was 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In May 2025, the import of electrolytic copper was 292,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In May 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 185,200 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 962,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.98% [47]. Refined - Scrap Price Difference - The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased, and the average price difference between refined and scrap copper rods widened. The supply of recycled copper raw materials tightened, and the demand was suppressed by policies and costs. Recycled copper rod enterprises faced losses and were expected to shift to anode plate production, and the supply of anode plates in the second half of the year would be relatively loose [51]. Consumption End - **Power and Grid Investment**: From January to December 2024, the cumulative power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative power investment was 257.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, and the grid investment was 203.986 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [52]. - **Wire and Cable**: No specific data provided. - **Air Conditioning**: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioning production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioning production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to May 2025, the air - conditioning production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The industry entered the off - season [56]. - **Automobile**: In May 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. In the new - energy vehicle sector, in May 2025, the production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%. From January to May 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% [61]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new - construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [63]. Other Elements Inventory - As of July 4th, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 400,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,700 tons. The LME copper inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 95,300 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 3,039 tons to 84,600 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 11,600 tons to 221,000 tons. As of July 3rd, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 72,900 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous week. Due to the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, the import loss of domestic copper widened, and some smelters began to plan export business [68]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 24th, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 29,433 lots, a monthly increase of 6,852 lots. The non - commercial long position was 70,781 lots, a monthly increase of 837 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 41,348 lots, a monthly decrease of 6,015 lots. The COMEX copper price rose due to the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, and the long position increased slightly [70]. Premium - As of July 4th, the LME copper spot premium was $95.35 per ton, and the LME squeeze problem was alleviated. The domestic copper spot premium showed a trend of rising first and then falling. It is expected that under the pressure of high copper prices and increasing inventory, the spot premium will continue to be suppressed, but the decline space is limited [76]. Basis - As of July 4th, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 790 yuan per ton [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,100 tons week - on - week. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans a 2 - month shutdown for maintenance, expected to affect monthly output by about 1,000 tons. In May, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 9,700 tons, a significant 38% decrease month - on - month. China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,510 tons to 138,300 tons week - on - week, and overall inventory remains high. In the medium - to - long - term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still large [5]. - Demand side: In July, downstream production scheduling increased slightly month - on - month. Power production scheduling declined, and there was some rush - to - export behavior in energy - storage cells. The terminal market maintained a rapid growth rate, with the preliminary forecast of 1.017 million new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales in China, a 25% year - on - year increase [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 6.0% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week - on - week. Overseas mines have a strong price - holding sentiment, and the purchasing enthusiasm of non - integrated lithium salt plants has increased [5]. - Strategy: The improvement of macro - sentiment and the reduction of warehouse receipts drive buying, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. The meeting mentioned "anti - involution competition", which stimulates the market's buying sentiment. It is necessary to observe the implementation of policies. In the short term, the sentiment may still have some support, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - **5 - month lithium spodumene imports decreased slightly month - on - month**: From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In May, imports were 605,000 tons, a 2.9% decrease month - on - month. Imports from Australia and South Africa increased, while those from Zimbabwe decreased [9]. - **Lithium concentrate prices stabilized and rebounded**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 6.0% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week - on - week. Overseas mines have a strong price - holding sentiment, and non - integrated lithium salt plants have higher purchasing enthusiasm [12]. - **June domestic lithium carbonate production increased slightly month - on - month**: In June, SMM's total lithium carbonate production increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year. Production from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes increased, while that from the recycling end decreased [16]. - **June Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China remained low**: From January to May, China imported 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 15.3% year - on - year increase. In June, Chile exported 10,200 tons to China, a 41% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month increase [20]. - **Spot prices stabilized and rebounded**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 yuan/ton, a 1.9% week - on - week increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rebounded [21]. Demand Side - **Global new - energy vehicle market started well**: From January to April, global new - energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million, a 25.5% year - on - year increase. In China, from January to May, new - energy vehicle sales were 5.605 million, a 44.0% year - on - year increase [29][32]. - **Power battery production maintained a high growth rate**: In May, China's total production of power and other batteries was 123.5 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month and 47.9% year - on - year increase [36]. - **Domestic mobile phone shipments increased slightly year - on - year**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [41]. - **In May, some provinces had a "rush - to - install" trend**: From January to May, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new - energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with power and capacity increasing by 110% and 112.94% year - on - year respectively [45]. - **July downstream production scheduling increased slightly month - on - month**: Power production scheduling declined, and there was some rush - to - export behavior in energy - storage cells [51]. Other Indicators - **Non - integrated lithium salt plants had cost inversion**: The theoretical production cost of manufacturers using purchased spodumene was 71,749 yuan/ton, with a negative theoretical production profit of 9,849 yuan/ton [48]. - **This week, the basis narrowed**: The basis of lithium carbonate was - 980, and the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices remained flat at 1,600 yuan/ton [54]. - **The spread between contracts widened**: The term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was horizontal, and the spread between the first - nearby and near - month contracts was - 200, 300 less than last week [57].

社库累库且现货贴水，预计盘面上方空间有限 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国非农就业人数大超预期，7月降息概率迅速下滑；国内以旧换新政策将继续，反内卷政策抬头；7月9日临近，关注美国对外关税政策。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 供给：5月，在产产能环比增加210万吨，开工率环比小幅上升；矿石端，国内到港量周度环比增加，数值仍处在正常范围内 进口： 2025年5月中国氧化铝净出口14.25万吨，环比大幅减少，连续14个月净出口；出口盈利小幅收敛 需求：电解铝在产产能小幅增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝生产完全成本为2821.9元，盈利300.3元/吨，成本微幅下滑，利润小幅减少；烧碱价格最新价3540元/吨，周度环比上涨10元/吨 进口矿到港量周度环比反弹，数据暂在正常范围内；进口矿价较为稳定，韧性较强，下跌概率不大，对氧化铝存成本支撑；国内矿端库存仍在 偏高位置；氧化铝周产环比增加，社库延续累库，现货近两 ...

品种投资策略报告 2025 年 7 月 7 日 正信化工团队 策略提供 黄益 Tel：027-68851659 Email: huangyi@zxqh.net 投资咨询编号：Z0020858 赵婷 Tel：027-68851659 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 服务公众号 正信期货研究院 纯碱：供需宽松，弱势难改 摘要 中期看，纯碱大方向的趋势走弱并没有改变，依旧是以偏空思路对 待。目前上游库存偏高，由于库存分布较为集中，三季度检修季内 若供应端大装置出现意外情况或者宏观政策出台，可能阶段性刺激 盘面，但整体供应压力下预计难有反弹空间。到三季度末随着年度 检修基本结束，纯碱行业将面临较明显的库存压力，届时也可以选 择逢高做空 01 合约，不过由于绝对价格相对低位，轻仓操作为佳。 请仔细阅读最后一条免责条款 1 专业成就未来 半年度报告 品种投资策略报告 目录 请仔细阅读最后一条免责条款 2 专业成就未来 一、行情回顾 二、供给端分析 三、需求端分析 四、库存端分析 五、成本利润端分析 六、总结与展望 品种投资策略报告 一、 行情回顾：供需过剩格局难改，阶段性检修支 ...

原油：等待驱动指引，油价震荡整理 正信期货原油周报 20250707 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：全球贸易前景向好，特朗普喊话美联储降息。据CME"美联储观察" ：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为 95.3%，降息25个基点的概率为4.7%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为32.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为64.3%， 累计降息50个基点的概率为3.1%。 Ø 供应端：地缘风险逐步消退，后续供应端变量在于欧佩克+的产量政策和执行情况。美国方面，特朗普"大而美法 案"结束了对太阳能和风能的长期支持，同时为石油、天然气和煤炭生产创造了友好的环境。美国至7月4日当周石 油钻井总数425口，前值432口。欧佩克方面，据与会代表称，在周六举行的线上会议上，八个关键联盟成员国同意 将日产量提高54.8万桶，超出市场预期且高于此前该组织计划的41.1万桶/天。 Ø 需求端：高频数据来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High inventory pressure on pulp ports persists, with limited improvement in downstream demand. Paper mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand, and the operating rate remains low. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 4960 - 5220 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the market prices of spot pulp decreased slightly. In Shandong, the prices of coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood dropped by 50 yuan/ton, with declines of -0.84%, -0.83%, and -0.80% respectively. The prices of broadleaf pulp like Goldfish, Birdie, and Alpine decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with declines of -0.49% - -0.74%. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural pulp, and non-wood pulp remained stable [9][13]. - **Pulp Futures Market Review**: Last week, the pulp futures contract SP2509 oscillated within a 120-point range, closing at 5068 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.55%) for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.525 million lots, a decrease of 912,000 lots from the previous week, and the weighted open interest was 325,000 lots, an increase of 27,500 lots [14]. - **Pulp Futures-Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the larger decline in the spot price of coniferous wood pulp than that of pulp futures, the basis discount continued to shrink. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 832 yuan/ton, a reduction of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week [18]. - **Log Futures Market Review**: Last week, the main log futures contract 2509 oscillated in a range, closing at 795.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.0 yuan/cubic meter (+0.51%) from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 102,000 lots, a decrease of 34,600 lots, and the weighted open interest was 27,600 lots, a decrease of 8,700 lots [20]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, pulp production was 474,000 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons (-1.82%) from the previous week. Among them, broadleaf pulp production was 205,000 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production was 201,000 tons. It is expected that this week's domestic broadleaf pulp production will be about 206,000 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production will be about 200,000 tons [4][22]. - **Capacity Utilization of Broadleaf Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broadleaf pulp was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week, and that of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 84.3%, a decrease of 0.8% [27]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In June 2025, domestic pulp production was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons (-3.36%) from the previous month. Among them, wood pulp production was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons (-7.69%), and non - wood pulp production was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (-2.69%) [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemimechanical Pulp and Broadleaf Pulp**: In June 2025, domestic chemimechanical pulp production was 855,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons (-2.4%), with a capacity utilization rate of 85.0%, an increase of 0.8%. Broadleaf pulp production was 891,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons (-4.5%), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.6%, a decrease of 1.1% [32]. - **Monthly Production Profit of Broadleaf Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp**: In June 2025, the production profit of broadleaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167.3 yuan/ton (-25.31%) from the previous month and a decrease of 1,503.03 yuan/ton (-75.28%) from the same period last year. The production profit of chemimechanical pulp was -376.9 yuan/ton, a reduction of losses by 41.1 yuan/ton [36]. - **Pulp Imports**: In May 2025, pulp imports were 3.016 million tons, an increase of 123,200 tons (4.26%) from the previous month and an increase of 196,000 tons (6.95%) from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imports were 15.55 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (2.1%) from the same period last year [38]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 281,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (0.36%) from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.5%, an increase of 0.1% [40]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, copperplate paper production was 77,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (1.32%), and the capacity utilization rate was 56.9%, an increase of 0.6%. Offset paper production was 203,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (-0.49%), and the capacity utilization rate was 57.0%, a decrease of 0.2% [44]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: In the packaging paper market last week, the production of white cardboard was 313,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (3.3%), and the capacity utilization rate was 76.34%, an increase of 2.44%. The production of white board paper was 194,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (-0.51%), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.79%, a decrease of 0.36%. The production of corrugated paper was 472,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons (-1.29%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.36%, an increase of 0.01%. The production of boxboard paper was 613,500 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons (1.29%), and the capacity utilization rate was 67.75%, an increase of 1.49% [47][50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, in the tissue paper market, the price of Shandong wood pulp large - roll base paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.84%), while the prices of Sichuan bamboo pulp and Guangxi sugarcane pulp large - roll base paper remained stable. In the cultural paper market, the price of Shandong 70g offset paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.99%), and the price of double - copper paper remained stable. The prices of white board paper and white cardboard remained stable, while the price of corrugated paper decreased slightly, and the price of boxboard paper remained stable [51][55][57]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, tissue paper production was 1.193 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (-2.37%) from the previous month and an increase of 101,000 tons (9.25%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 63.0%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.5% from the same period last year. White cardboard production was 1.29 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (0.78%) from the previous month and a decrease of 42,000 tons (-3.15%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 73.3%, an increase of 2.58% from the previous month and a decrease of 4.8% from the same period last year. Offset paper production was 862,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons (-3.04%) from the previous month and a decrease of 38,000 tons (-4.22%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 56.37%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month and a decrease of 7.23% from the same period last year. Copperplate paper production was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (-2.97%) from the previous month and a decrease of 50,000 tons (-13.26%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 56.35%, an increase of 0.15% from the previous month and a decrease of 6.85% from the same period last year. The actual domestic pulp consumption in June 2025 was 3.195 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons (-1.6%) from the previous month and an increase of 4,000 tons (0.13%) from the same period last year [59][64][67]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp in China shows a trend of inventory accumulation. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.213 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons (2.31%) from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port is 1.378 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.92%), the inventory of Changshu Port is 598,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons (9.52%), and the inventory of Tianjin Port is 62,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (-3.39%) [68][70]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, pulp futures warehouse receipts were 242,800 tons, a decrease of 5,996 tons (-2.41%) from the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 221,900 tons, a decrease of 5,699 tons (-2.5%) [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With the expectation of supply increase and the arrival of the terminal seasonal off - season, downstream procurement is mainly on - demand, and there is a certain expectation of polyester load reduction. The supply - demand weakening expectation is strong. It is expected that PTA will continue to be weak in the short term, and the TA9 - 1 spread will continue to decline [6]. - MEG: The domestic production of ethylene glycol has a slight increase, the overseas device load decreases, and there is an expectation of reduced imports. However, the downstream polyester demand declines, and the supply - demand structure has no obvious positive support. It is expected that ethylene glycol will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. Although the spot supply of PX was tight during the week, the large decline in costs dragged down the PX price. As of July 4, the closing price of Asian PX was 840 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton compared with June 27 [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The planned maintenance of some PX devices was implemented, resulting in a slight decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization was 84.4%, a decrease of 2.01% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization of Asian PX was 73.48%, a decrease of 1.1% [20]. - **Price Spread**: As of July 4, the PX - naphtha price spread was 260.9 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 US dollars/ton compared with June 27. Due to insufficient positive support in the fundamentals and weak demand expectations, the price spread declined from a high level [21]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: With the recovery of Hengli Petrochemical and Yisheng New Materials, the weaving load has been decreasing since the traditional off - season. The performance of polyester was not ideal, and the capacity utilization decreased. In addition, there were new device commissioning plans in July, and the expectation of supply - demand contradiction deterioration was strong, which hindered the purchasing enthusiasm and led to a significant weakening of the basis. As of July 4, the PTA spot price was 4835 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 101 [26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The unexpected load reduction of Yisheng Hainan limited the increase in PTA capacity utilization. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization was 79.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. In July, Helen Petrochemical planned to be put into production, and Hengli had a maintenance plan. It was expected that the PTA capacity utilization would fluctuate slightly [29]. - **Processing Fee**: With the arrival of the traditional off - season at the terminal, the demand - side support was insufficient, and the supply side recovered. Under the expectation of supply - demand deterioration, the PTA processing fee dropped significantly this week. Next week, there was still an expectation of supply increase, and with the approaching of new device commissioning, it was expected that the PTA processing fee would decline slightly [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, although the maintenance of upstream PX was acceptable, new PTA devices were planned to be put into production, and polyester production cuts were implemented. The PTA supply - demand margin weakened, and the balance sheet was expected to accumulate inventory [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: After the geopolitical situation was alleviated, ethylene glycol prices fell and then rebounded from the bottom due to the news of Saudi device shutdown. As of July 4, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4361 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4390 yuan/ton [39]. - **Domestic Production**: The total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol was 59.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. In July, with the restart of maintenance enterprises, domestic production was expected to increase. In terms of imports, although the devices in Malaysia and Iran restarted, the Saudi device shutdown led to a slight increase in overall supply [42]. - **Import Volume**: As of July 3, the total port inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 542,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with June 30 and an increase of 36,300 tons compared with June 26. As of July 9, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 84,300 tons [45]. - **Processing Profit**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol increased month - on - month, but the import arrival was expected to decrease. During the traditional demand off - season, the downstream polyester load continued to decline. As of July 4, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 93.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24.09 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 19.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170.73 yuan/ton compared with last week [49]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester was 88.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Although the load of some filament enterprises increased during the week, the large - scale production cut of Yisheng Hainan's device led to a slight decline in domestic polyester supply. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [52]. - **Polyester Output**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and the large cash - flow pressure of polyester, it is expected that the monthly output of polyester will decline significantly [54]. - **Inventory of Filament Factories**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament increased by 1.28% compared with the previous period, mainly due to the output increase brought by the restart of previously maintained devices. The average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber decreased by 0.30% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was stable [59]. - **Inventory of Polyester Products**: Due to poor demand performance, the factory sales data remained sluggish, and the finished product inventory gradually increased [60]. - **Polyester Cash - Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased, and manufacturers successively carried out price promotions during the week. The transaction center decreased month - on - month, and the cash - flow of most models was compressed [64]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of July 3, the operating load of the weaving industry was 58.09%, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 8.32 days, a decrease of 0.74 days compared with last week. The current textile market is cautiously bearish, and downstream orders have insufficient sustainability [69]. 3.5 Summary of the Fundamental Situation of the Polyester Industrial Chain - **Cost End**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. The large decline in costs dragged down the PX price [71]. - **Supply End**: The weekly average capacity utilization of PTA increased slightly, while the total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol decreased slightly [71]. - **Demand End**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester decreased, and the operating load of the weaving industry declined. Terminal consumption was weak, and downstream orders had insufficient sustainability [71]. - **Inventory**: The PTA supply - demand balance sheet shifted from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China increased [71].

煤矿逐步复产，盘面反弹受阻 煤焦周度报告 20250707 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面延续反弹，但基本面有所走弱，涨势恐难持续；现货暂稳 | | | 供给 | 焦企开工延续小幅下滑，供应尚未恢复 | | | 需求 | 铁水转而下滑，钢厂后续补库力度或减弱；投机情绪偏好，出口利润维持正值，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 下游补库，上游、港口去库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润小幅回升 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水扩大，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周初煤矿复产消息传来，双焦走弱；周三、周四受反内卷提振大幅拉涨；周五市场情绪有所回落，加之铁水回落，双焦再度走弱；整体维持震荡走势。 截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨1.6%至1433，焦煤09合约涨0.66%至839.5。焦炭方面，焦化厂因环保、部分检修等，供应未完全恢 ...

有色金属套利周报20250707 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 | | 品 种 | 策 | 略 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 国内需求进入淡季 订单量减少 铝棒开始 ， 。 累库 社库拐点临近 铝价有冲高回落的风 | | 跨 期 | 铝 | 反 | 套 | ， ， 险 而淡季结束后 需求有望重新为铝价提 。 ， | | | | | | 供支撑 建议逢低滚动参与铝的跨期反套 ， 。 | | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出明显恢复 年内全球新投产 ， | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 而铝社库偏低 ， | | | | | | 对价格存有支撑 基本面强于锌 建议逢低 ， ， | | | | | | 滚动参与多铝空锌 。 | 2 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资金流动情况 第二部分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption this week brings uncertainty. The impact of tariff policies on the market remains uncertain, and it's necessary to guard against the negative emotional impact of Trump's extreme pressure. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and the market expects positive signals from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [4]. - In the medium - term, real estate sales are seasonally rising at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and seasonally warming up in summer. Consumption is boosted by fiscal subsidies, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export is ending, with a possible decline in the third quarter. Domestic anti - involution policies may reverse the commodity supply - demand balance and lead to a rebound in prices [4]. - Domestically, liquidity is generally loose, while overseas, it is marginally tightening. The US dollar index is expected to rebound from oversold levels. The domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, but the pressure of share unlocks remains [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral to high level, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - The stock market may rise in an oscillating manner in the third quarter. It is recommended to actively go long on stock index futures after sharp declines due to tariff policy shocks this week. In terms of style, first go long on IC and IM, then on IF and IH, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: Last week, US stocks led the rise, and the Hang Seng Technology Index led the decline. The performance order is Nasdaq > S&P 500 > CSI 300 > Shanghai Composite Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > German Stock Market > Nikkei 225 > STAR 50 > Hang Seng Technology [8]. - **Industry Performance**: Steel led the rise, and comprehensive finance led the decline. The order is Steel > Bank > Building Materials > Medicine... > Transportation > Comprehensive > Computer > Comprehensive Finance [12]. - **Futures Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.22%, 0.3%, 0%, and - 0.05% respectively last week, with the discounts of IF and IH significantly narrowing. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.05%, - 0.23%, - 0.27%, and - 0.31% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.05%, - 0.31%, - 0.44%, and - 0.48% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IF, IC, and IM significantly widening [15][16]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 19.71 billion yuan, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.01% to 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 302.83 billion yuan, an increase of 13.89 billion yuan from last week, and the share was 199.171 billion shares, with a redemption of 1.48 billion shares from last week [25]. - **Industrial Capital**: In the first week of July, equity financing was 3.67 billion yuan, with 1 company. Among them, IPO financing was 640 million yuan, private placement was 0 yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.03 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing declined significantly. The market value of stock unlocks last week was 90.83 billion yuan, an increase of 33.28 billion yuan from the previous week, remaining at the second - highest level this year [28]. 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 202.75 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase of 65.22 billion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. After the end of the quarter, the open - market operations recovered liquidity. MLF had a net injection for four consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral [30]. - **Money Demand**: Last week, the net money demand for national debt was 19.993 billion yuan, for local debt was 4.361 billion yuan, and for other bonds was 34.787 billion yuan. The total net money demand in the bond market was 59.141 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [33]. - **Fund Price**: DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 27.4bp, - 9.9bp, and - 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.42%, 1.36%, and 1.31%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 5.9bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 8.1bp to 1.59%. The overall fund price was oscillating at a low level [36]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yield curve flattened. The central bank's liquidity recovery in the open market made the short - end stronger, and the credit spread between national debt and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [40]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 4th, the US 10 - year bond rate increased by 6.0bp to 4.35%, the inflation expectation increased by 4.0bp to 2.33%, and the real interest rate increased by 2.00bp to 2.02%. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread widened by 6.40bp to - 270.78bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11% [43]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 3rd, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally recovered to 3.329 million square meters, but was still at a low level compared to the same period in 2019. Second - hand housing sales seasonally declined to the lowest level in the past seven years. The overall real estate market sales were weak, and more incremental policies were expected [46]. - **Service Industry Activity**: As of July 4th, the subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained high, with a daily average of 83.58 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a 32.5% increase compared to the same period in 2021. The service industry's economic activity seasonally recovered in summer. The Baidu Hundred - City Traffic Congestion Delay Index remained flat compared to last week, at a neutral level in the past three years [50]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Last week, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate declined across the board. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills decreased by 0.54%, that of asphalt increased by 0.2%, that of cement clinker enterprises decreased by 6.7%, and that of coke enterprises decreased by 0.18%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased by 0.45% compared to last week [52]. - **Goods Flow**: Both goods flow and passenger flow remained at relatively high levels. The number of civil aviation flights for summer tourism consumption increased strongly, while highway transportation was relatively weak, with limited growth, and there was a risk of a second seasonal decline from July to August [57]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of exports, the logic of rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks continued. The port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded after a short - term decline. From July to August, it was necessary to guard against the risk of a second decline due to renewed trade frictions after the expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption [60]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US May non - farm payrolls report slightly exceeded expectations, but the structure implied a cooling signal. The US non - farm employment showed certain resilience, and the service industry PMI rebounded unexpectedly. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in 2025 was reduced to 2 times, with a cut of about 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a rate cut in July dropped to 4.7% [62][66]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium last week was 3.35%, a 0.06% decrease from last week, at the 68.8% percentile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 4.24%, a 0.21% decrease from last week, at the 24.3% percentile, indicating a low level of foreign - capital attractiveness. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 79.9%, 72.9%, 78.2%, and 60.3% percentiles in the past five years respectively, and the attractiveness of each index's valuation decreased marginally [69][74]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal rules, the stock market is in a seasonally oscillating and rising period with structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. In general, the market is likely to rise in July. Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM on pullbacks, short - term shorting on sharp rises of IF and IH, and medium - term long - term on sharp declines. This week, the market is greatly disturbed by the uncertainty of US tariff policies. If there are negative impacts, pay attention to going long on the growth style on sharp declines [77]. - **Financial Calendar**: This week's financial calendar includes China's June CPI and PPI data, and attention should be paid to whether prices have stabilized and rebounded. Overseas markets should focus on the US Treasury auctions and the progress of the Trump administration's tariff policy negotiations with other countries [79]