Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the trends of oils and fats diverged. The centers of soybean and palm oils moved up, while rapeseed oil declined. The USDA July report reflected the impact on US biodiesel and foreign tariffs. The consumption of US biodiesel from soybean oil was increased, soybean crushing was up, exports were down, and inventory was up. The new crop growth was good, and CBOT soybeans were under pressure. In June, Malaysian palm oil production decreased as expected, but the unexpected drop in exports led to a slight inventory build - up. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil production resumed growth in early July, and BMD crude palm oil fluctuated. Operationally, the market traded on the decline in June Malaysian palm oil production last week, and both domestic and foreign palm oils continued their strong trend. However, the increase in July production limited its short - term upside. Seek long - term long opportunities on dips [7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Table of Contents 1. Main Views - Last week, the trends of oils and fats diverged. In the producing areas, the MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production and exports in June decreased by 4.48% and 10.52% respectively, and inventory increased by 2.41%. In early July, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 35% and exports increased by 5 - 12%. The USDA report adjusted the 25/26 US soybean exports, crushing, and inventory. In China, the weekly trading volume of soybean and palm oils was average. New palm oil purchase contracts were added, and soybean oil inventory reached 102 tons while palm oil inventory stopped increasing. The strategy is to seek long - term long opportunities on dips as the short - term upside of palm oil is limited by the increase in July production [7]. 2. Market Review - Last week, US soybeans tested the 1000 mark, the centers of domestic and foreign palm oils moved up, Dalian soybean oil stopped falling and rebounded, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil's center of gravity moved down [9]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA July Report**: The 25/26 US soybean exports were estimated to be down 70 million bushels, crushing up 50 million bushels, and ending inventory up 15 million bushels. The 25/26 US soybean oil biofuel consumption was 15.5 billion pounds [12][13]. - **US Soybean Good - to - Excellent Rate**: As of the week ending July 6, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as the previous week [16]. - **Brazilian Soybean Premium**: Last week, the Brazilian soybean premium rose to a maximum of 155 cents per bushel, hitting an 8 - month high [17]. - **June Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: In June, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.69 million tons (down 4.48% month - on - month), exports were 1.26 million tons (down 10.52% month - on - month), and inventory was 2.03 million tons (up 2.41% month - on - month). In early July, production increased by 35% and exports changed from - 28% to 12% [12][20]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Policy**: Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. The US threat of a 32% tariff may reduce Indonesian palm oil exports to the US by 15 - 20% [25]. - **Indian Palm Oil Import**: It was estimated that India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% to 953,000 tons, reaching an 11 - month high [28]. - **Domestic Oilseed Crushing Profit**: The price of by - product protein meal rebounded. The spot and futures crushing profits of imported rapeseed reached 200 - 300. The import profit of palm oil was in a slight deficit [31]. - **Oil Mill Operating Rate and Inventory**: In July, the oil mill crushing operating rate declined, and soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed crushing operating rate stopped falling, and rapeseed inventory decreased. As of early July, soybean oil inventory reached 1.02 million tons, rapeseed oil inventory was 760,000 tons, and palm oil inventory was 520,000 tons [34][39][42]. - **Spot Price and Trading Volume of Oils and Fats**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats diverged. As of July 11, the price of soybean oil rose slightly, palm oil rose, and rapeseed oil fell. The overall trading volume of oils and fats was average [46][49]. 4. Spread Tracking - No specific content provided other than the section title [56]

Report Information - Report Name: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025-7-14 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Overall Rating: Oscillating [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply: National egg spot prices have generally risen recently. The traditional price increase from July to August is driven by factors such as accelerated chicken culling during the rainy season, Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling, and decreased egg production due to high temperatures. However, this year's Mid-Autumn Festival is close to National Day, and the limited industry losses have led to insufficient capacity reduction. The seasonal rebound is expected to be delayed and limited in amplitude [3]. - Demand: This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas increased slightly, the shipping volume in the main production areas fluctuated slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links decreased significantly. As the rainy season nears its end, the egg storage conditions have improved, the purchasing意愿 of egg merchants has increased, and the sales speed and trading volume in the sales areas have increased [3]. - Profit: The breeding profit has continued to decline, significantly lower than the comprehensive cost, and at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. This week, the egg basis decreased slightly, and the premium of the near-month futures contract is at a historical high [3]. - Price and Volume: Currently, the spread between the near and far futures contracts of eggs has decreased slightly and is at a moderately high level. From the perspective of positions, the institutional positions of the main egg futures contract show a net short and oscillating state [3]. - Strategy: The premium of the near-month contract is at a historical high, and the near end faces significant spot selling pressure. The far end is expected to gradually improve as the capacity reduction expectation strengthens. Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding profit losses, the pattern of weak near and strong far in the egg futures is expected to continue. Operationally, considering that the spread between the near and far futures contracts is at a relatively high level, 9 - 11 and 9 - 12 reverse spreads can still be considered [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Spot Price: Analyzes the main production area price vs. the main sales area price [4][5] - Egg Basis: Analyzes the basis of each egg futures contract [7][8] - Egg Spread: Analyzes the spread between each egg futures contract [10][11] - Futures Institutional Net Position: Analyzes the long - short difference and ratio of institutional positions in the September egg futures contract [13][15] Supply Analysis - Laying Hen Inventory: Analyzes the laying hen inventory and its structure [16][17] - Chicken Culling Situation: Analyzes the chicken culling price and the average culling age [18][19] - Replenishment Situation: Analyzes the price of commercial laying hen chicks and the utilization rate of hatching eggs [21][22] - Large and Small Egg Situation: Analyzes the prices of large and small eggs and the seasonal chart of the price difference [23][24] Demand Analysis - Shipping Volume and Sales Volume: Analyzes the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas [25][26] - Inventory: Analyzes the inventory in the production and circulation links [27][28] - Substitutes: Analyzes the seasonal charts of the price ratios of eggs to pork and vegetables [31][33] Profit Analysis - Breeding Profit: Analyzes the current and expected profits and the comprehensive breeding profit of laying hens [34][35] - Egg - Feed Price Ratio: Analyzes the egg - feed price ratio, its equilibrium point, and the seasonal chart [37][38]

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs (2025-7-14) [2] - Research Team: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Investment Rating - Overall Strategy: The long - term trend of the live pig industry in 2025 is in a pressure period, with a forecast of price decline, but policy regulation may shorten the pressure period and slow down the decline. The operation strategy is to dynamically construct a bull spread for the September live pig contract, with an overall rating of "oscillation" [3] - Supply: Rated as "偏多" (Bullish) [3] - Demand: Rated as "偏空" (Bearish) [3] - Profit: Rated as "中性" (Neutral) [3] - Price and Volume: Rated as "中性" (Neutral) [3] Core View - In the first half of 2025, listed pig enterprises showed obvious differentiation in scale expansion. Leading enterprises consolidated their positions, and some enterprises sought breakthroughs through radical expansion or regional deep - cultivation. Cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and refined operation are the keys to survival in the industry [3] - The average weight of commercial pig slaughter in sample breeding enterprises has been decreasing, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter has increased slightly. The leading enterprise, Muyuan, has taken the lead in reducing weight and production capacity in the industry [3] - High - temperature weather and school holidays have a negative impact on pork consumption, which may limit the upward trend of pig prices [3] - The self - breeding and self - raising profit is near the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is at the average level in the same period of the past four years. The downward space of futures is limited due to a small discount [3] Section Summary Price and Volume Analysis - **Spot Price**: Analyzes the price and seasonal chart of live pigs in Henan [4][5] - **Basis**: Analyzes the basis of each live pig futures contract [7][8] - **Spread**: Analyzes the spread between each live pig futures contract [10][11] - **Futures Institutional Net Position**: Analyzes the long - short difference and ratio of institutional positions in the September live pig futures contract [13][14] Supply Analysis - **Breeding Sows Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory of breeding sows [16][17] - **Piglet Supply**: Analyzes the price ratio of piglets to live pigs in Henan and the number of newborn piglets [19] - **Live Pig Slaughter**: Analyzes the average weight seasonal chart and slaughter structure of commercial pigs in sample breeding enterprises [22][23] - **Standard - Fat Price Difference**: Analyzes the daily and seasonal charts of the standard - fat price difference [25][26] Demand Analysis - **Live Pig Slaughter**: Analyzes the daily slaughter rate and seasonal profit chart of key live pig slaughter enterprises [27][28] - **Frozen Product Inventory**: Analyzes the storage rate and fresh - meat efficiency of frozen products in key slaughter enterprises, as well as the seasonal chart of the storage rate [30][32] - **Substitutes**: Analyzes the seasonal price ratio of pork to eggs and vegetables [34] Profit Analysis - **Breeding Profit**: Analyzes the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for breeding, as well as the seasonal profit chart of self - breeding and self - raising [36][37] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: Analyzes the pig - grain ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Although OPEC+ will complete the plan to exit the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million tons ahead of schedule, the price increase in Saudi Arabia for the Asian region combined with the peak demand season will support the downside of oil prices. The implementation of the increased production has a certain lag, and once it is implemented, it will still impact the market. Short - term trading should be mainly based on short - term band operations, focusing on the WTI range of $60 - 70, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis - **Price Trends**: From July 7 - 11, international oil prices fluctuated strongly. Despite uncertainties in trade frictions, peak - season demand and low inventories supported oil products. As of July 11, WTI and Brent settled at $67.93/barrel (+2.46%) and $69.78/barrel (+2.34%) respectively; INE SC settled at 512.26 yuan/barrel (+2.36%) [8]. - **Financial Aspects**: Against the backdrop of the postponement of tariff implementation and the easing of the Middle East situation, investors' risk appetite increased significantly, and the US stock market remained at a high level. As of July 11, the S&P 500 index reached 6259.75, continuing its rebound since mid - April [12]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility continued to decline this week, while the dollar index rebounded. As of July 11, the crude oil volatility ETF was at 37.06, and the dollar index was at 97.87. Crude oil volatility declined with the easing of risks, and the dollar index rebounded due to the reduced expectation of a rate cut but was still under pressure overall [15]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of July 8, the net long positions of WTI management funds decreased by 28,900 contracts to 145,700 contracts, a monthly decline of 16.6%; the speculative net long positions increased by 3,600 contracts to 63,700 contracts, a monthly increase of 6%. Since July, peak - season demand has gradually supported oil prices, but the net long positions decreased due to high valuations [18]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Production**: In May, OPEC's production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 2.7022 million barrels per day. Most countries, except Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, have started to implement the production increase plan, especially Saudi Arabia. However, the increase in May of the eight countries that agreed to increase production was far lower than planned, mainly because some countries began to implement their submitted compensatory production cut plans [23]. - **OPEC+ Production Cut Situation**: According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in May was 2.199 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 barrels per day. Iraq and the UAE still had significant over - production, but the over - production amount has started to decrease, indicating that the compensatory production cut plan may be taking effect [26]. - **Saudi and Iranian Production**: In May, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 177,000 barrels per day to 9.183 million barrels per day. Iran's crude oil production decreased by 25,000 barrels per day to 3.303 million barrels per day. The impact of US sanctions on Iran may be gradually reflected in its crude oil production [30]. - **Russian Crude Oil Supply**: According to the OPEC statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in May was 8.984 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 barrels per day, remaining relatively stable at a low level. According to the IEA statistical caliber, its production was 9.17 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 160,000 barrels per day, presumably affected by compensatory production cuts [40]. - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week of July 11, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 424, 1 less than the previous week and 54 less than the same period last year. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian region has decreased significantly, and the potential for crude oil production increase may be limited [44]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of July 4, US crude oil production remained stable at 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week, but a year - on - year increase of 0.64%. Although US crude oil production is at a historical high, low oil prices may dampen producers' enthusiasm and limit the growth space of US oil production [47]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Total Petroleum Product Demand**: As of the week of July 4, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.863 million barrels per day, an increase of 376,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 0.55%. The four - week average shows that US petroleum demand continues to recover in the peak season, but the recovery speed is slower than in previous years [51]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: As of July 4, US crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day to 13.385 million barrels per day; consumption increased by 276,000 barrels per day to 20.564 million barrels per day; refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.006 million barrels per day; refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [55]. - **US Gasoline, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the gasoline crack spread was $23.4 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.34 per barrel. The weekly demand for gasoline and heating oil increased month - on - month. The four - week average demand for gasoline was lower than in previous years, while that of heating oil was better than last year [59]. - **European Diesel, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the ICE diesel crack spread was $26.81 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.43 per barrel. The extremely cold weather and low temperatures had limited impact on heating oil demand, and the positive effect was weaker than in the first quarter, mainly showing a volatile trend. Diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventories and restocking needs [63]. - **Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation**: In May, China's crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.406 million tons year - on - year to 59.111 million tons (-2.32%); imports decreased by 370,000 tons year - on - year to 46.6 million tons (-0.79%). Since March, state - owned refineries have reduced their purchases of Russian seaborne oil and increased procurement from alternative supplies in the Middle East, West Africa, and South America [67]. - **Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth**: International institutions such as EIA and IEA have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth, while OPEC maintains last month's judgment. In June, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 800,000 barrels per day (down), 720,000 barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 1.05 million barrels per day, 740,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively [72]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: As of July 4, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased significantly by 707,000 barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 4.29%; SPR inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 46,400 barrels to 212,000 barrels [73]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the four - week period ending July 4, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 1.358 million barrels per day to 3.256 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.1006 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [77]. - **WTI and Brent Month - to - Month Spreads**: As of July 11, the WTI M1 - M2 month - to - month spread was $1.41 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $4.13 per barrel. The WTI month - to - month spread maintained a back structure, and the monthly spread indicator strengthened slightly on a weekly basis. The Brent month - to - month spread also maintained a back structure, with the M1 - M2 spread at $1.2 per barrel and the M1 - M5 spread at $2.96 per barrel [81][84]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In July, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 104.61 million barrels per day, and demand would be 103.54 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.07 million barrels, which continued to increase compared to last month. The EIA believes that OPEC's production increase plan and the production increase outside the group will continue to drive the strong growth of global liquid fuel production [88].

有色金属套利周报20250714 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 | | 品 种 | 策 略 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国内需求进入淡季 下游企业开工率趋降 ， ， 订单量减少 铝棒持续累库 社库拐点临 。 ， | | 跨 期 | 铝 | 套 反 | 近 铝价有冲高回落的风险 而淡季结束 ， 。 | | | | | 后 需求有望重新为铝价提供支撑 建议逢 ， ， | | | | | 低滚动参与铝的跨期反套 。 | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出明显恢复 年内全球新投产 ， | | | | | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 而铝社库偏低 ， | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | 对价格存有支撑 基本面强于锌 建议逢低 | | | | | ， ， | | | | | 滚动参与多铝空锌 。 | 2 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory of pulp remains at a high level, with a loose supply side in the fundamental aspect and limited improvement in the downstream demand side. The operating rate is maintained at a low level. However, the futures market is easily affected by macro - sentiment recently. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 5130 - 5390 this week [4] Summary by Directory 1 Paper Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp declined slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star increased by 20 yuan/ton (or +0.34%) to 5920 yuan/ton, while the prices of coniferous pulp Cariboo and Northern Wood remained flat at 6000 yuan/ton and 6200 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine remained unchanged at 4020 yuan/ton, 4020 yuan/ton, and 4030 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe, virgin pulp Venus, sugarcane pulp, bamboo pulp, and reed pulp also remained stable [9][13] - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2509 oscillated and rebounded within a 230 - point range last week. It closed at 5234 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton (or +3.28%) for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.422 million lots, a decrease of 103,000 lots compared with the previous week, and the weighted open interest was 274,000 lots, a decrease of 51,200 lots [14] - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 686 yuan/ton, and the discount amplitude decreased by 146 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [18] - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 oscillated within a narrow range last week. It closed at 786.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 9.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 1.13%) compared with the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 87,800 lots, a decrease of 13,700 lots, and the weighted open interest was 28,700 lots, an increase of 1,200 lots [20] 2 Paper Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Pulp Weekly Output**: Last week, the pulp output was 475,000 tons, a slight increase of 1,000 tons (or +0.21%) compared with the previous week. The output of broad - leaf pulp was 206,000 tons, and the output of chemical mechanical pulp was 202,000 tons. It is expected that the output of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 210,000 tons and the output of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 200,000 tons this week [4][22] - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.2%, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 84.8%, an increase of 0.5% compared with the previous week [27] - **Monthly Pulp Output**: In June 2025, the domestic pulp output was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons (or - 3.36%) compared with the previous month. Among them, the output of wood pulp was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons (or - 7.69%), and the output of non - wood pulp was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (or - 2.69%) [28] - **Monthly Production Profit**: In June 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167.3 yuan/ton (or - 25.31%) compared with the previous month, and a decrease of 1503.03 yuan/ton (or - 75.28%) compared with the same period last year. The production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 376.9 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 41.1 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [36] - **Pulp Imports**: In May 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons, an increase of 123,200 tons (or +4.26%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 196,000 tons (or +6.95%) compared with the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (or +2.1%) compared with the same period last year [38] 3 Paper Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper output was 279,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (or - 0.71%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.2%, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous week [40] - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the output of coated paper was 78,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or +1.30%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.3%, an increase of 0.4% compared with the previous week. The output of offset paper was 202,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.49%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.8%, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous week [44] - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the output of white cardboard was 301,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons (or - 3.83%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.41%, a decrease of 2.93% compared with the previous week. The output of white board paper was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.52%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.44%, a decrease of 0.35% compared with the previous week. The output of corrugated paper was 463,600 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (or - 1.9%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.15%, a decrease of 1.21% compared with the previous week. The output of boxboard paper was 619,000 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons (or +0.9%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.35%, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous week [47][50] - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In the tissue paper market, the prices of wood pulp, bamboo pulp, and sugarcane pulp base paper remained stable. In the cultural paper market, the price of double - copper paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.93%), while the price of double - offset paper remained unchanged. In the white board paper market, the prices remained stable, while in the white cardboard market, the price of some products decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.26%). The prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper remained stable [51][55][57] - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the output of tissue paper was 1.193 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (or - 2.37%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.0%, a decrease of 1.5% compared with the previous month. The output of white cardboard was 1.29 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (or +0.78%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.3%, an increase of 2.58% compared with the previous month. The output of double - offset paper was 862,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons (or - 3.04%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.37%, an increase of 0.1% compared with the previous month. The output of coated paper was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (or - 2.97%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.35%, an increase of 0.15% compared with the previous month. The actual consumption of domestic pulp in June 2025 was 3.195 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons (or - 1.6%) compared with the previous month [59][64][67] 4 Paper Pulp Inventory Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.179 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (or - 1.54%) compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port is 1.364 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons (or - 1.02%). The inventory of Changshu Port is 605,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons (or +1.17%), and the inventory of Tianjin Port is 59,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (or - 4.84%) [70][71] - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 238,500 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons (or - 0.65%) compared with the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 218,700 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons (or - 0.7%) [75]

盘面整体情绪有所缓和，现货贴水走阔 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国非农就业人数大超预期，7月降息概率迅速下滑；国内以旧换新政策将继续，反内卷和供给侧改革声音出现，对盘面影响较大；美国对 外关税政策出台，比例较前期提升，但后续不确定性仍较大。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 2.1.1 氧化铝产能：6月在产产能同比增加9.14%，环比增加365万吨 据阿拉丁数据,2025年6月中国氧化铝总产能为11292万吨，同比增加8.56%，环比增加50万吨； 2025年6月中国氧化铝在产 产能为9315万吨，同比增加9.14%，环比增加365万吨。 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 10,000.00 11,000.00 12,000.00 2018-04 2018-09 2019-02 2019-07 2019 ...

玻璃：预期好转，关注月末补库力度 纯碱：基本面偏空，轻仓参与 正信期货玻璃纯碱周报 20240714 首席研究员：徐婧 投资咨询编号：Z0012091 Email: xujing@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 首席研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号： Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel： 027-68851659 1、纯碱内容要点 | 因素 | 因素综述 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 上周纯碱产量70.89万吨（-0.00，-0.00%)，其中轻碱产量30.88万吨（-0.43），重碱产量40.01万吨（+0.43）。纯碱开 | | | 工率81.32%（-0.00%），其中氨碱82.56%（+1.24%），联产70.33%（-3.03%）。 | | 需求 | 上周纯碱企业出货量为65.51万吨，环比上周-1.70%；纯碱整体产销率为92.4%，环比上周-1.59%。上周纯碱需求略有转弱， | | | 下游企业以刚需拿货为主。下周浮法预期略有增量，光伏玻璃有减量预期。5月纯碱进口0.15万吨，环比-0.31万吨；出口 | | | 18.17万吨， ...

Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, copper prices declined. The US copper tariff policy had two unexpected changes: a 50% tariff rate and implementation between late July and early August. This high - tariff and fast - implementation policy ended the ongoing export - to - US arbitrage path, increased price pressure on LME copper, and caused inventory to show an inflection point. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on SHFE copper and short on LME copper [4][86]. - The mid - year long - term contract negotiation settled at $0, severely hitting smelters' long - term profitability. Currently, domestic production remains high, and sulfuric acid and by - product profits barely cover losses, with an extremely unhealthy profit structure. On the demand side, the domestic off - season is deepening, spot premiums are falling from high levels, but due to the internal - external price difference, increased domestic exports lead to a weak expectation of inventory accumulation. The LME squeeze problem has eased, Asian warehouse inventories have increased, and premiums have declined [4][86]. - Copper prices saw a significant reduction in positions and a decline this week, indicating that most of the previous active long positions in the domestic market have left. There is still a lack of active short - selling power. It is necessary to monitor changes in LME copper. With insufficient domestic short - selling power and during the tariff game phase, macro expectations may continue to face pressure. Keep an eye on the progress of US copper tariffs. As copper prices closed in the negative on the weekly chart, continue to hold the strategy of selling near - month CALL options and buying far - month PUT options [4][86]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Macro - level - In June, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, unchanged from the previous month. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose 0.7% month - on - month to 49%, while France's manufacturing PMI declined 2% month - on - month to 47.8%. The US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52%, unchanged from the previous month. In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New orders and new export orders improved slightly in June, and the service industry PMI gradually stabilized [12]. - The high tariff rate and fast implementation ended the export - to - US arbitrage path. The market profited from the short - term price difference decline of COMEX copper and LME copper. The implementation of the US copper tariff increased price pressure on LME copper, and inventory began to show an inflection point [4][13][86]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - According to ICSG data, in December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%. From January to December 2024, global copper concentrate production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. The 2024 market had a surplus of 301,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 52,000 tons in the previous year. In April 2025, global copper mine production was 1.909 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. From January to April 2025, cumulative copper mine production was 7.526 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. In April 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 12,000 tons in March. In the first four months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 233,000 tons, similar to the surplus of 236,000 tons in the same period last year [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import of copper ores and concentrates was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, copper concentrate data were generally lower than market expectations. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [27]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On July 11, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - $43.79 per dry ton, an increase of $0.46 per dry ton from the previous period. The CSPT group decided not to set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate in the third quarter of 2025. In 2025, the long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. Refined Copper Production - In June 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 3,400 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.3%, and increased by 12.93% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production increased by 674,700 tons, an increase of 11.40%. In July 2025, it is expected that national electrolytic copper production will further increase, with a month - on - month increase of 15,500 tons (1.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 122,200 tons (11.88%) [37]. Refined Copper Import Volume - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, imports were 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, exports were 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In May 2025, China imported 292,700 tons of electrolytic copper, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 217,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. The cumulative import in 2024 was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In May 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 185,200 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 962,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.98% [47]. Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference - This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 25.45%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 3.05 percentage points year - on - year. The average price difference between scrap and refined copper rods this week was 991 yuan per ton, a decrease of 558 yuan month - on - month. Due to the decline in copper prices, recycled copper rod enterprises' raw material inventory was relatively abundant, and the number of operating days increased. The weekly finished product inventory of recycled copper rod sample enterprises was 5,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 250 tons. The decline in copper prices significantly narrowed the price difference between scrap and refined copper rods, eliminating the economic benefits of recycled copper rods. Cable enterprises preferred to purchase refined copper rods from traders, and recycled copper rod enterprises faced increasing sales pressure [51]. Consumption - end - In 2024, from January to December, power source cumulative investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. In 2025, from January to May, power source cumulative investment was 257.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, and grid investment was 203.986 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [52]. - In 2024, in December, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. In 2025, from January to May, the air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The monthly production declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate slowed down, indicating that the industry entered the off - season [56]. - From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. From January to June 2025, domestic automobile sales were 12.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. Among them, domestic sales of traditional fuel vehicles were 6.693 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. In June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.4% and 26.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.8% of total automobile sales. From January to June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of total automobile sales [61]. - In 2024, from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [63]. Other Elements Inventory - As of July 11, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 424,300 tons, a weekly increase of 23,500 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 108,700 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 13,200 tons to 234,200 tons. Domestic exports to LME led to overall inventory accumulation. As of July 10, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 78,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from last week [68]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of July 8, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 39,604 lots, a weekly increase of 5,914 lots. The non - commercial long position was 80,843 lots, a weekly increase of 6,218 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 41,239 lots, a weekly increase of 304 lots. The speculation of a 50% tax rate on COMEX copper prices led to a rapid increase, with long - position holders adding positions and the net long position expanding [70]. Premium and Discount - As of July 11, the LME copper spot was at a discount of $21.57 per ton. The concern about LME copper squeeze was relieved, and the spot premium quickly changed to a discount pattern. With the increase in Asian warehouse inventories, the LME squeeze crisis eased. This week, copper prices declined, and downstream procurement sentiment improved, but due to the seasonal off - season, downstream orders improved limitedly. Shanghai's inventory decreased slightly this week, mainly consuming previously imported low - price goods. Next week, approaching the delivery date, holders will actively sell goods under the high monthly spread, and the SHFE copper spot discount will expand, but the discount range is expected to be limited. After the contract change, holders will start quoting at a premium of 150 - 200 yuan per ton, but actual transactions are unlikely to improve significantly [80]. Basis - As of July 11, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Grade 1 copper and the continuous third - month contract was 400 yuan per ton [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 690 tons week-on-week to 18,800 tons. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance for 2 months, expected to affect the monthly output by about 1,000 tons. In June, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 10,200 tons, a 6% increase month-on-month and a 41% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2,446 tons week-on-week to 140,800 tons. The overall inventory remains at a high level. In the medium to long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still significant [5]. - Demand side: According to research, the downstream production schedule in July increased by 2%-3% month-on-month. The energy storage market improved slightly, slightly exceeding market expectations. The terminal market maintained a relatively fast growth rate. From June 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.017 million, a 25% increase year-on-year [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 2.3% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week-on-week. Due to the recovery of lithium salt prices, the procurement enthusiasm of non-integrated lithium salt plants has increased [5]. - Strategy: The improvement of macro sentiment, the decline of import data, and the reduction of warehouse receipts drive the market's bullish sentiment. In July, both supply and demand are expected to increase, but the improvement of the fundamentals of lithium carbonate itself is limited. In the short term, the "anti-involution" may still have some support on the emotional side. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate. Pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side 5 - Month Lithium Spodumene Import Volume Decreased Slightly Month - on - Month - From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In May, the import volume was 605,000 tons, a 2.9% decrease month-on-month. Imports from Australia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were 371,000 tons, 52,500 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively, with a 24.1% increase, a 29.9% increase, and an 8.2% decrease month-on-month [9]. Lithium Concentrate Price Continued the Rebound Trend - This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 2.3% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week-on-week. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to hold prices. Due to the recovery of lithium salt prices, the procurement enthusiasm of non-integrated lithium salt plants has increased [12]. June Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production Increased Slightly Month - on - Month - In June, SMM's total lithium carbonate production increased by 8% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes increased by 11%, 9%, and 7% respectively, while the production from the recycling end decreased by 7% [16]. June Chile's Export of Lithium Carbonate to China Remained at a Low Level - From January to May, China imported 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 15.3% increase year-on-year. In June, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 10,200 tons, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. Spot Price Stabilized and Rebounded - This week, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 63,750 yuan/ton, a 2.3% increase week-on-week. The market transaction was relatively dull. Lithium salt plants held prices and were reluctant to sell, while downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude and mainly made rigid procurement [21]. Demand Side Global New Energy Vehicle Market Started Well - From January to April this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. From January to April, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million, a 23.3% increase year-on-year. From January to May in China, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 5.605 million, a 44.0% increase year-on-year [29][32]. Power Battery Production Maintained a High Growth Rate - In May, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 123.5 GWh, a 4.4% increase month-on-month and a 47.9% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production was 568.1 GWh, a 62.6% increase year-on-year [36]. Domestic Mobile Phone Shipment Increased Slightly Year - on - Year - In the first quarter of 2025, the shipment of China's smartphone market was 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year. From January to December 2024, the production of China's electronic computer整机 in the first quarter was 85.322 million units, a 9.6% increase year-on-year [41]. "Rush to Install" Tide Appeared in Some Provinces in May - From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% and 112.94% increase in power and capacity year-on-year respectively. In May, due to the upcoming implementation of the "Document No. 136", a "rush to install" tide appeared in some provinces [45]. July Downstream Production Schedule Increased Slightly Month - on - Month - This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 2,515 yuan/ton, a 115 yuan/ton decrease from last week. According to research, the downstream production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month [51]. Other Indicators Non - Integrated Lithium Salt Plants Faced Cost Inversion - The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 71,749 yuan/ton, a 2,210 yuan/ton increase week-on-week. Under the current lithium price, these manufacturers have fallen into losses [48]. This Week's Basis Narrowed - This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was -530, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained flat week-on-week at 1,600 yuan/ton [54]. The Price Difference between Contracts Widened - This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure. The price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, increasing by 1,800 yuan compared with last week [57].