1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New peanuts are about to be listed, and the price of peanuts has been continuously adjusted weakly this month. The new peanuts in Jiangxi and other places are listed in small quantities, and the procurement of new rice in the wholesale market is limited. The off - season procurement enthusiasm is low, and the support is insufficient. The drought in some areas may affect the growth of spring peanuts. The oil mills' purchase of oil peanuts is mostly suspended, the start - up rate is low, and the price of peanut oil is weakly adjusted. The enterprise start - up rate of peanut meal is low, and the downstream procurement is not active [6]. - The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased slightly, and the total output is expected to remain high. After the small amount of new peanuts are listed, the price has weakened. The short - term market price is likely to continue the weak trend. In the short term, the spot price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and market demand. For futures, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating for nearly a year. Given the continuous increase in planting area and unchanged demand, the short - term price is likely to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on whether the price will decline rapidly. Trend traders can try an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints - The planting area of new - season peanuts increases slightly, and the total output is expected to be high. The new peanuts in Jiangxi are listed in small quantities, and the price weakens after a small increase in supply. The short - term market price is likely to continue to decline. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and demand. Futures are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term focus is on the downward trend. Trend traders can use an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3.2 Market Review - **Overall Situation**: The peanut weighted index has been oscillating and declining this month, while the oil and fat sector has been oscillating and rising. Since September 2024, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating, and the price continued to fall this month with increased trading volume and a reduced decline, indicating some support at the lower limit of the range. The oil and fat sector is stronger than peanuts, and attention should be paid to its callback volume and price [8][10]. - **2510 Contract**: The price of the 2510 contract has been oscillating downward this month, with a rapid decline after rising. There is some buying support at around 8100, but whether the price can strengthen in the short term depends on the follow - up of buying [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Oil Mill Inventory and Start - up Rate**: The end - of - month inventory of peanut oil is 39,090 tons, a decrease of 510 tons from the previous month. The start - up rate of oil mills is 4.32%, a decrease of about 2.52% from the previous month [16]. - **Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha)**: The Baisha peanut price has been continuously weakening this month as the old peanut inventory is being consumed and the bargaining space has increased [19]. - **Peanut Oil Price Trend**: The average price of first - class ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this month is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically the same as last month [23]. - **Peanut Meal Price Trend**: The peanut meal price has been oscillating narrowly this month, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal have been oscillating upward [27]. - **Imported Peanut Quantity and Price**: The cold - storage new refined peanuts imported from Sudan are quoted at 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton with almost no stock. The Senegalese oil peanuts are quoted at 7,800 yuan/ton, with good quality at 8,000 yuan/ton and refined peanuts at 8,500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume is small. There will be few subsequent arrivals of African peanuts [31]. - **Market Price Index Compared with Last Month**: In the wholesale market, the overall peanut price is mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price is relatively stable [33]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report provides the data source for the basis spread of peanuts - Baisha but does not elaborate on the specific spread situation [35][37]

Report Title - Steel and Ore Monthly Report 2025 - 08: Industrial Expectations Disappointed, Black Rebound Halted [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center's Black Industry Group [2] Report Main Views Steel - **Price**: Spot prices rebounded significantly, and the futures market was strong. In July, the螺纹10 contract rose 208 to 3205, and the hot - rolled coil futures price rose 267 to 3390. Shanghai's spot prices for rebar and hot - rolled coil increased by 220 and 170 respectively [8]. - **Supply**: Blast furnace production remained high, and electric furnace supply increased significantly. As of August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.05% at the end of July [11][18]. - **Demand**: Speculative demand for building materials increased significantly, while both domestic and foreign demand for plates decreased month - on - month. In July, the average monthly apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1% [24][27]. - **Profit**: Blast furnace profits continued to increase, and electric furnace production turned profitable. By August 1, the blast furnace profitability rate reached 65.4%, and the average profit of electric furnace rebar at off - peak electricity was 81 yuan/ton on July 30 [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation rate of building materials was slower than expected, and plate inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 1, rebar social inventory increased by 200,000 tons month - on - month, and hot - rolled coil social inventory increased by 2% in July [35][38]. - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated, and the futures - spot spread accelerated its decline. The rebar 10 - contract basis widened by 4 from the end of June to August 1, and the hot - rolled coil basis inverted [41]. - **Summary**: In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, molten iron production remained high, and electric furnace production increased significantly. Overall supply was abundant. Demand for plates was weak due to the seasonal off - peak for manufacturing. Considering the weakening support logic in the black industry, there is significant pressure for a correction in the futures market. Maintain a short - selling strategy in the short term [3]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Spot ore prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. In July, the futures price rose 63.5 to 779, and the Rizhao Port PB powder price rose 64 to 779 yuan/ton [52]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. In July, the weekly average global shipment volume was 30.73 million tons, a decrease of 3.59 million tons from the previous month [55]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production remained high, and demand was expected to remain resilient. In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, and molten iron production remained high. It is expected that the average daily molten iron production in August will be between 2.37 and 2.4 million tons [64]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks passively. As of August 1, the 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 1.74 million tons month - on - month [70]. - **Shipping**: Shipping prices increased significantly [76]. - **Spread**: There was no trading space for the futures spread, but attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]. - **Summary**: In July, supply tightened while demand remained high, and the fundamentals were strong. Later, affected by the weakening industrial logic, ore prices declined from their highs. Considering the short window period for short - selling and the more certain weakening of finished products, short - selling iron ore is not recommended for now. Instead, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore [3]. Strategies - For steel, continue to hold the short positions recommended in the weekly strategy and watch for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore and the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term trend of palm oil remains unchanged despite short - term corrections. In July, CBOT soybean fell below the 1000 mark, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range. There are multiple factors affecting the market, including policies, production, and exports. The soybean oil trend is strong, and long positions at previous low levels of palm oil can be held [7][8]. 3. Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Main Points - **Market situation**: In July, CBOT soybean fell below 1000, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range [7]. - **External policies**: The public comment period for the biodiesel policy was extended to October 31; the US imposed a 19% tariff on palm oil from India and Malaysia; the EU gave zero - tariff treatment to 1 million tons/year of Indonesian palm oil exports, and imposed a 3% tariff on the part exceeding 1 million tons [7]. - **Production areas**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 7 - 14% and production increased by 7%, with the reference price of crude palm oil in August raised to 3864.12 Malaysian ringgit/ton. From May to June, Indonesia's exports increased by 50% and 43% respectively, and the reference price of crude palm oil in August was raised to 910.91 US dollars/ton. The good rate of US soybeans was 68 - 70%, the June crushing volume was 185.709 million bushels, and the D4 credit limit was 629 million gallons. Argentina reduced the export taxes on soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal [7]. - **Domestic situation**: Affected by export news, the spot trading volume of soybean oil increased in July, with a maximum daily trading volume of 100,000 tons. Palm oil was mainly for rigid demand, and new purchase orders were added in August. The inventories of soybean oil and palm oil increased to 1.09 million tons and 600,000 tons respectively, and the rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline to around 700,000 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: Due to the good growth of US soybeans, high crushing volume in June, uncertainty in the biodiesel policy, and Argentina's reduction of export taxes, CBOT soybeans fell below 1000. Malaysia's palm oil production increased and exports declined in July, and the inventory was expected to continue to increase at the end of the month. Indonesia's palm oil exports were good from May to June, production was suppressed by industry supervision, and biodiesel consumption met the plan, with the inventory stopping increasing at the end of May. There were multiple news in the export end. The soybean oil trend is strong, and long positions at previous low levels of palm oil can be held [8]. 3.2 Market Review - In July, CBOT soybean fell below the 1000 integer mark, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US soybeans**: The good rate of US soybeans was 68 - 70%; the June crushing volume was 185.709 million bushels, the D4 credit limit for biodiesel was 629 million gallons (602 million gallons in May). The Brazilian soybean premium rose to 185 cents/bushel, a nearly two - year high. Argentina reduced the soybean export tax from 33% to 26%, and the export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [13]. - **Palm oil**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 7 - 14%, production increased by 7%, and the "reciprocal tariff" imposed by the US on Malaysia was reduced from 25% to 19%. From May to June, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased, and the reference price of crude palm oil in August was raised to 910.91 US dollars/ton. The US imposed a 19% tariff on Indonesian palm oil. India's palm oil imports in June increased to 956,000 tons [13]. - **Import and crushing**: In June, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative import of 49.37 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; imported 350,000 tons of palm oil, with a cumulative import of 1.07 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%; imported 150,000 tons of rapeseed oil, with a cumulative import of 1.18 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 25.7%; imported 184,500 tons of rapeseed, a month - on - month decrease of 45% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.69%. In July, the soybean crushing operation rate remained high, and the inventory accumulation progress of soybean in oil mills slowed down; the rapeseed crushing operation rate and oil mill inventory were both low [13]. - **Inventory**: By the end of July, the soybean oil inventory increased for three consecutive months to 1.09 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory decreased for more than two months to 710,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous high; the palm oil inventory accumulated to 590,000 tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous low. The total inventory of the three major oils increased to 2.32 million tons, compared with 1.94 million tons in the same period of the previous year [13]. - **Spot price**: In July, the spot prices of oils generally rose. As of July 31, the soybean oil price was 8343 yuan/ton, a 2% increase from the previous month; the palm oil price was 8968 yuan/ton, a 5.61% increase from the previous month; the rapeseed oil price was 9665 yuan/ton, a slight 0.68% increase from the previous month [13]. - **Demand**: In July, the spot trading volume of soybean oil increased, while that of rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased significantly. The trading volume of soybean oil was 463,200 tons (381,500 tons in June); the trading volume of palm oil was 10,375 tons (27,449 tons in June); the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 4500 tons (76,000 tons in June) [13]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the part of spread tracking in the text.

Group 1: Main Views - This month, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was bearish, with increased planting area, slightly decreased yield per unit, and slightly increased ending stocks. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, suppressing U.S. commodities. The weather in U.S. cotton-growing areas was favorable, and the export of U.S. cotton was weak. In China, the commercial cotton inventory was decreasing, imports were low, downstream demand was in the off - season, and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariff measures was negative for cotton textile exports. The new cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature situation had eased [6]. - The strategy is to note that the good weather in U.S. cotton - growing areas and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariffs have pressured U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, low imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory have led to a relatively fast de - stocking process, but downstream demand is still weak, and Sino - U.S. tariffs continue to suppress terminal exports. With an increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, Zhengzhou cotton first rose and then fell. Pay attention to weather changes in growing areas, and Zhengzhou cotton will continue to bottom out at a low level [6]. Group 2: Market Review - As of July 31, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.22 cents per pound, down 0.82 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly decline of 1.21%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,650 yuan per ton, down 90 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 0.66% [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis External Market - U.S. Cotton - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to be 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the harvest area is expected to be 8.66 million acres, an increase of 470,000 acres; the yield per unit is expected to be 809 pounds per acre, a decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the output is expected to be 14.6 million bales, an increase of 600,000 bales; the total supply is expected to be 18.71 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales; the total consumption is expected to be 14.2 million bales, unchanged; the ending stocks are expected to be 4.6 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales [15][16]. - **Goodness - to - Grade Ratio**: As of the week of July 27, the goodness - to - grade ratio of U.S. cotton was 55%, lower than the previous week but higher than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the squaring rate was 80%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [20]. - **Exports**: As of July 24, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2024/2025 season were 39,000 bales, compared with - 33,000 bales in the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 72,000 bales, compared with 133,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 1.0088 million bales, accounting for 93.31% of the July USDA report [24]. Domestic Market - **Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of July 31, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 66.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The operating rate continued to decline, downstream orders did not change significantly, and the sales of spinning mills were slow. The operating rate of inland spinning mills was about 50%, while that in Xinjiang remained stable [28]. - **Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of July 31, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days was 27.80 days, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [31]. - **Cotton Inventory**: As of July 25, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.3056 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 151,900 tons (a decrease of 6.18%). As of July 31, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 335,400 tons [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Since July, the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine has cooled down the Middle East situation, weakening the impact of geopolitical conflicts on precious metal prices. The US tariff and trade policies are erratic, and Trump's continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has led to concerns about the Fed's independence. The COMEX gold futures price reached a maximum of $3451.7 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures price reached a maximum of $39.91 per ounce. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to break through the trading range in the future [2]. - Last month, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. The capital inflows of gold and silver ETFs increased, and hedge funds increased their holdings of gold [2]. - The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, with an upward trend in the short - term. It is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. The price of Shanghai silver is slightly rising in the short - term, and it is advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In terms of price changes, the spot price of London gold decreased by 0.06%, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.97%, and the Shanghai gold main contract price decreased by 0.69%. The spot price of London silver decreased by 0.04%, the COMEX silver futures price increased by 2.37%, and the Shanghai silver main contract price increased by 1.23%. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 4.5%, and the total position increased by 1.74%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.09%, and the total position increased by 4.13% [4]. - Since July, the gold - to - silver ratio in both domestic and foreign markets has been continuously declining, but it is still significantly higher than the long - term average, indicating that the silver price is undervalued and has the opportunity to make up for the increase in the future [5]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign precious metals has decreased compared with last month. Affected by tariffs and interest rate cut expectations in July, precious metal prices showed a volatile trend [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - The US dollar index rose and then fell in July. The strong non - farm payrolls report in June strengthened the US dollar, but the uncertainty of trade agreements and Trump's pressure on the Fed weakened the US dollar. The weak non - farm payrolls report in July further weakened the US dollar [11]. - The real yields of the US 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds rose and then fell last month. Affected by the changing US tariff policies and the revised expectations of the Fed rate cut, precious metal prices fluctuated [13]. - In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year - on - year, both higher than expected. The inflation rebound, combined with the weakness in consumer spending and the labor market, has intensified the policy differences within the Fed. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [18]. - In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. Except for energy, the prices of other CPI sub - items increased year - on - year. The impact of tariffs on commodity inflation has emerged, but the transmission to service inflation is not significant. The Fed maintained the interest rate in July [21]. - In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, lower than expected and below the boom - bust line. In June, the ISM service PMI was 50.8, slightly higher than expected. In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, both exceeding expectations [24]. - In July, the US ADP employment increased by 104,000, but the proportion of consumers thinking that "jobs are difficult to obtain" reached a nearly four - and - a - half - year high. The non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a weak labor market [27]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July. There were two dissenting votes, indicating increased internal differences. The US tariff policy is erratic, and the trade progress has boosted the US dollar and market risk sentiment, while the uncertainty has increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals [30]. - According to the World Gold Council's survey, 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, which helps to hedge risks and promote RMB internationalization [31]. 3. Position Analysis - As of July 29, 2025, the net long position of CMX gold speculators increased by 21,600 lots to 223,600 lots, and hedge funds increased their holdings of gold. The net long position of CMX silver speculators decreased by 4,000 lots to 59,400 lots [34]. - As of August 1, 2025, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF increased by 4.85 tons to 953.08 tons, and the holdings of SLV silver ETF increased by 187.66 tons to 15,056.66 tons. Overall, the capital inflows of gold and silver ETFs accelerated last month [35]. 4. Other Elements - As of August 1, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 38.7156 million ounces, a 4.5% increase from last month, and the COMEX silver inventory was 506.6616 million ounces, a 1.09% increase from last month [39]. - In July 2025, the global gold reserve was 36,305.84 tons, an increase of 31.55 tons from last month. China's gold reserve was 2,296.35 tons, an increase of 1.86 tons from last month. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year. The global silver shortage is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and the industrial demand for silver remains strong [42]. - As the tariff sentiment eases, the impact of trade policy changes on precious metal prices will gradually weaken. The US economic data shows that inflation is moderate, and the weak non - farm payrolls data in July provides an opportunity for the Fed to restart a moderate rate cut. The precious metal prices are expected to break through the trading range in the future, and it is recommended to buy on dips [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July, coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell, with significant fluctuations in the futures market. By July 31, coke 09 rose 12.47% to close at 1601, and coking coal 09 rose 24.09% to close at 1045.5. Looking ahead to August, the market is expected to return to fundamentals, with short - term corrections in the futures market. Coke is expected to follow coking coal in the correction, but the overall correction space may be limited. The strategy is to lightly short coking coal in the short - term and monitor coal mine production trends around mid - to late August to decide on exiting short positions and looking for potential long - entry opportunities [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coke Monthly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - In July, coke prices rebounded significantly and are facing a phased correction in August. Spot prices had four rounds of increases in July and a fifth round at the beginning of August. For example, the Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price increased from 980 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton. Freight rates for coke transportation showed a mixed trend, with some routes increasing and some decreasing [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprise supply recovered slowly. As of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises was 73.69%, with a slight increase compared to the previous week and the previous month. The daily coke output was 64.81 tons, also showing a slight increase [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong support for raw material demand. As of August 1, the average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.71 tons. Speculative sentiment was strong at first and then weakened, export profits declined, and building material sales improved temporarily and then weakened again [33][36]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Coke inventories at coke enterprises and steel mills decreased, while port inventories increased, resulting in a decline in total inventories. As of August 1, the total coke inventory was 915.41 tons, a decrease compared to the previous week and the previous month [39]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit per ton of coke did not improve significantly, and the coke futures market profit declined. As of July 31, the profit per ton of 30 independent coke enterprises was - 45 yuan/ton, with a slight increase compared to the previous month. As of August 1, the coke 09 futures market profit decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 304.5 yuan/ton [50]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 converged, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. As of August 1, the coke 09 basis was - 111.18, an increase compared to June, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39, a decrease compared to the previous month [54]. 3.2 Coking Coal Monthly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - In July, coking coal prices rose strongly and then fell sharply, and are facing a phased correction in August. Spot prices rebounded significantly. For example, the price of Jinzhong medium - sulfur primary coking coal increased from 930 yuan/ton to 1400 yuan/ton [57][60]. 3.2.2 Supply - In July, coal mine复产 was slow, and the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly. Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to a high level, but from January to June, coking coal imports decreased year - on - year. By the end of July, the daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port exceeded 1100 vehicles [63][66][71]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories, coal mine inventories decreased significantly, and total inventories declined. As of August 1, the total coking coal inventory was 2493.27 tons, a decrease compared to the previous week and the previous month [74]. 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 was basically at par, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened. As of August 1, the coking coal 09 basis was 10, an increase compared to the previous month, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 107.5, a decrease compared to the previous month [99].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Short - term macro expectations have adjustment pressure after being fulfilled, but the medium - and long - term policy guidance remains bullish [4] - The domestic economy will maintain a weak reality. Pay attention to the improvement opportunities of cyclical industries that reverse deflation [4] - Domestic and overseas liquidity is expected to be loose, and the domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, but there are also some unfavorable factors such as the increase in the pressure of equity financing and the marginal increase in the pressure of share unlocking [4] - After a short - term sharp rise, the valuations of various indices have entered the neutral to high level in history, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4] - In August, it is recommended to reduce long positions or conduct short - term shorting of IC and IM during rebounds, and go long on IF and IH during sharp drops. Also, use out - of - the - money put options to protect against adjustment risks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Stock Market Performance**: In the past month, A - shares led the rise, and the Nasdaq led the decline. The growth rate rankings of various indices are as follows: ChiNext > CSI 500 > Dow Jones > FTSE Emerging Markets > Hang Seng Index > Nikkei 225 > FTSE Europe > Nasdaq Composite. In terms of industries, steel led the rise, and comprehensive finance led the decline [7][8][12] - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.7%, 0.45%, 0.12%, and 0.35% respectively, and the discounts of each futures contract significantly narrowed. The inter - period spread rates of the four major stock index futures (current month and next month) and (next quarter and current month) also changed, with different trends for different contracts [20] 2. Fund Flow - **Margin Trading and Stabilization Funds**: In July, margin trading funds flowed in 134.35 billion yuan to reach 1.98 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading balance in the market value of tradable shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 0.07% to 2.33%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds exceeded 3 trillion yuan, an increase of 78.13 billion yuan from the previous month, but the share decreased by 11.65 billion shares [23] - **Industrial Capital**: In July, equity financing was 46.49 billion yuan, and the scale of equity financing significantly declined to a low level. The market value of share unlocking was 288.39 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 69.89 billion yuan, and the marginal increase continued [26] 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: In July, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 36.43 billion yuan, and the MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan. The overall liquidity supply was neutral to loose [28] - **Money Demand**: In July, the net demand for money in the bond market was 208.386 billion yuan, maintaining a high level, driven by the debt financing needs of national bonds, local government bonds, and enterprises [31] - **Fund Price**: In July, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 49.1bp, - 73.1bp, and - 10.7bp respectively, and the issuance rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit also decreased. The overall fund price rebounded slightly at a low level [34] - **Term Structure**: In July, the yield term structure of bonds flattened slightly, and the credit spread between national bonds and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [38] - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: In July, the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted degree narrowed, the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.5%, and the US dollar against the RMB oscillated at the central level of the nearly three - year range [41] 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 31, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally rebounded but was at a relatively low level in the same period. The second - hand housing sales seasonally declined. The real estate market was generally weak, but rigid demand supported the lower limit [44] - **Service Industry Activities**: As of August 1, the subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained high, and the service industry economic activities were at a high level. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities decreased, and the service industry economic activities tended to grow naturally and stably [48] - **Manufacturing Tracking**: In July, the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry were differentiated. The overall internal and external demand of the manufacturing industry was still under pressure [52] - **Goods Flow**: The goods flow and passenger flow remained at a relatively high level, but the growth in some fields cooled down weekly. The highway and railway transportation were relatively weak, and there was a seasonal decline after August [57] - **Import and Export**: The export rush after the Sino - US trade talks ended, and the export was expected to be under pressure from August to September [59] - **Overseas Situation**: In the US in July, the employment market was mixed, the ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to the lowest level in the year, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased [62][66] 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: In the past month, the risk premium of the stock - bond market decreased, and the foreign capital risk premium index also decreased. The relative valuation levels of major indices were not low, and the attractiveness of small - cap stocks decreased significantly [69][74] - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to the seasonal law, the stock market is in a period of seasonal shock decline and structural differentiation from August to September. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading and arbitrage opportunities of different index futures [77]

注重政策持续性 猪价稳定运行 正信期货生猪月报 2025-8-4 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 生猪 | 中期观点 | 月度评级 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 本月样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重降幅放缓、标肥价差先抑后扬、大猪出栏占比大幅增加。 | 7月30日召开政治局会议，会议在部署下半年经济工作重点的同时，更加侧重于长期规划部署。对于反内卷会议要 | | | | 供应 | 求"依法依规治理企业无序竞争"，相比7月1日中央财经委会议要求少了"低价"二字。长期来看，价格由供需决 | 偏多 | 定，人为管控价格，对经济反而不利。未来对于市场充分竞争的行业，估计价格上涨的空间不大，而对于国家管控 | | 能力强的行业，价格的提升空间可能相对大一些。 | | | | | 本月屠宰开工小幅上升，鲜效率明显下降，冻品库存小幅走高仍处于近4年历史同期低位。 | | | | | 需求 | 偏空 | | | | 近期高温抑制居民猪肉消费，多处工地停工导致集中采购锐减，需求季节性淡季凸显。 | | | | | 利润 | 自繁自养养殖利润处于盈亏平衡附近，猪粮比价低于近4年同期平均水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the egg industry this month is bearish [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, under the background of high inventory, the pace of capacity reduction is significantly insufficient, so the traditional peak consumption season for eggs may not see a strong price increase [3]. - The current high price difference between large - and small - sized eggs, along with the strong price of culled hens, indicates more new additions and fewer eliminations, which may suppress the price elasticity during the traditional consumption peak season [3]. - The acceptance of high - priced eggs in the terminal market is low, and high - temperature and high - humidity weather restricts circulation efficiency, leading to a slowdown in the movement of eggs in the production areas [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - This month, the egg basis has risen significantly, and the near - month futures contracts are slightly at a discount. The spread between near - and far - term egg futures has decreased significantly and is at a medium level. From a position perspective, the institutional net position of the main egg futures contract shows a bearish and volatile state [3]. Supply Analysis - The price of culled hens from sample breeding enterprises has risen significantly this month, and the average age of culled hens has decreased. The price of chicks has continued to decline, indicating an increase in new supplies and a decrease in eliminations [3]. Demand Analysis - This month, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas have increased slightly. The inventory in the circulation and production links first decreased and then increased, reaching a high level compared to the same period in history. The terminal market's acceptance of high - priced eggs is low, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase has declined [3]. Profit Analysis - This month, the breeding profit first declined and then rose, and is currently around the break - even point. The egg - feed price ratio and its equilibrium point are also analyzed [3]. Strategy - The strategy is bearish. As the futures price has rapidly caught up with the decline, the premium on the futures has been repaired to near par. It is expected to follow the spot price later, but due to high inventory this year, the peak season may not be prosperous. Short - term trading is advised to wait and see [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the pulp supply side is abundant while the improvement on the demand side is limited. With the policy and fundamentals presenting a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors, there is a lack of a single - sided driving force. It is expected that the main futures contract will operate in a wide - range oscillation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: In July, the spot market price of pulp showed a pattern of weak softwood pulp and strong hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood in Shandong decreased, while the prices of hardwood pulp like Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine increased. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural pulp, sugarcane pulp, and bamboo pulp were stable, and the price of reed pulp in Northeast China decreased [11][12]. - **Pulp Futures Market Technical Chart Analysis**: Since its listing in November 2018, the weighted monthly K - line chart of pulp futures has generally shown a converging triangle consolidation pattern. It is expected that the pulp price will continue to oscillate above the lower track of the converging triangle in August [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: In July, the main pulp futures contract increased, and the overall increase in the spot price of wood pulp was less than that of the futures, so the basis discount margin decreased [19]. - **Log Futures Market Review**: In July, the log futures contract 2509 showed a continued oscillating rebound. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: It is estimated that the pulp production in August will be 2.126 million tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase, and the total supply will be 7.326 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase [23]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, the domestic pulp production increased slightly. The capacity utilization rate of hardwood pulp increased, while that of chemimechanical pulp decreased [25][30]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In June 2025, the pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp increased. The import volume of natural pulp decreased month - on - month, and that of chemimechanical pulp increased [31][34][37]. - **Pulp Import Average Price**: In June 2025, the average import price of pulp continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The average import price of hardwood pulp was basically flat month - on - month, and that of natural pulp increased slightly [39][44]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In July 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp increased [45]. - **Wood Pulp Usage**: In July 2025, the wood pulp usage in household paper and white cardboard increased month - on - month, while the wood pulp usage in offset paper and coated paper increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [49][52]. - **Downstream Paper Production**: In July 2025, the monthly production of downstream household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard all increased month - on - month [56][57][59][63]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In July, the spot prices of household paper and cultural paper continued to decline month - on - month, the prices of whiteboard paper and white cardboard decreased slightly month - on - month, the price of boxboard paper remained stable, and the price of corrugated paper decreased slightly [66][67][69]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: In July, the overall port inventory showed a de - stocking trend, but the inventory in Qingdao Port increased. The inventories in Changshu Port and Gaolan Port decreased [71][75]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: In July, the pulp futures warehouse receipts increased [76].