投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 缩量确认关键支撑 等待放量反弹机会 ——股指周报2025.04.28 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 | 本期观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | 股指 | 1、中信建投研究，此次政治局会议并未涉及到调整预算、出台大规模增量刺激政策的 | IC/IM 的组合套 | 1）外部市场环境； 2）地缘政治因素； 3）宏观政策调整。 | | | 表述，强调既定政策"加紧实施"、"用足用好"，符合预期。主因当前既定政策还有大幅 | | | | | 空间未用，没有必要安排增量政策。下半年预计仍有增量财政政策，中央对外部冲击已 | | | | | 有充分估计，明确"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备 | | | | | 政策"。出台的时间节点我们预计在三季度中后期，一是彼时当前财政空间或已充分使 | | | | | 用，二则往年也有参考经验。消费领域，提出 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 供应减量，双硅低位震荡 ——铁合金周报20250428 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F03099603 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0020978 需求：成材周产量微增 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1-1 1-13 1-25 2-6 2-18 3-2 3-14 3-26 4-7 4-19 5-1 5-13 5-25 6-6 6-18 6-30 7-12 7-24 8-5 8-17 8-29 9-10 9-22 10-4 10-16 10-28 11-9 11-21 12-3 12-15 12-27 硅铁周消费量：万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1-1 1-13 1-25 2-6 2-18 3-2 3-14 3-26 4-7 4-19 5-1 5-13 5-25 6-6 6-18 6-30 7-12 7-24 8-5 8-17 8-29 9-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Politburo meeting, the market gradually returns to the supply - demand fundamentals. The five major steel products are continuously destocking. The increase in production is mainly concentrated in hot - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with both weekly production and demand decreasing, and destocking slightly slowing down, but the overall inventory is low, and there is a shortage of specifications in the market, resulting in a strong willingness to support spot prices. Hot - rolled coils have both increasing production and demand, with short - term demand having certain resilience, and the export pressure has not fully emerged, but attention should be paid to the weakening of export orders from May to June. Recently, there has been an obvious increase in billet export feedback, which helps to relieve the pressure of overall steel supply. At the same time, there are rumors of steel mills controlling production and reducing volume, which need to be continuously monitored. Before the holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [3]. - For iron ore, the supply of iron ore has increased, and the port has started to accumulate inventory. The supply - demand is loose, and the price still faces pressure. The short - term price tends to fluctuate in a low - level range. Before the May Day holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and there are great uncertainties in the overseas market during the holiday, so it is recommended to hold a light position [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the production of coking coal is stable, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a relatively high level. There is certain restocking support in the market before the holiday, and the port coking coal continues to destock, but the absolute quantity is still at a historical high level in the same period, and the medium - and long - term loose pattern remains unchanged. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, and the game of the second round of coke price increase has intensified, and whether it can be implemented before the holiday remains to be seen. The increase in hot metal provides certain support for the raw material end, but considering the limited subsequent increase and the enhanced willingness of funds to leave the market before the holiday, the price still shows pressure, and the overall situation shows a low - level shock, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The macro - environment has warmed up, and steel prices have rebounded from the low level. The spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have both shown a low - level rebound trend, and the basis has widened. The inventory of the industry continues to be destocked, but the destocking of rebar and hot - rolled coils has slowed down to varying degrees. Due to the relatively low absolute inventory of rebar and the shortage of specifications in the market, the willingness to support prices is strong. The export pressure of hot - rolled coils has not fully emerged [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly production is 229.11 tons (down 0.05% month - on - month, up 3.18% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly production is 317.5 tons (up 0.99% month - on - month, up 0.60% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production increased slightly, and electric furnace production decreased [16][18][23]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is +98 yuan/ton (up 34.25% week - on - week, down 36.36% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is +29 yuan/ton (up 31.82% week - on - week, down 79.72% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 259.94 tons (down 5.07% month - on - month, down 2.31% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions is 12.13 tons (up 9.10% month - on - month, down 19.14% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 324.36 tons (up 0.06% month - on - month, up 0.28% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 702.33 tons (down 4.21% month - on - month, down 25.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 367.69 tons (down 1.83% month - on - month, down 10.32% year - on - year) [42][47]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 12.14% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year; the transaction land area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.26% week - on - week and decreased by 30.78% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% respectively. The cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2% respectively [51][54]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 27.584 million tons (up 13.16% month - on - month, up 6.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 25.128 million tons (up 8.06% month - on - month, up 27.06% year - on - year) [62]. - **Demand**: Hot metal daily output is 2.4435 million tons (up 423,000 tons month - on - month, up 683,000 tons year - on - year), and the port ore handling volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 3.2792 million tons (up 5.95% month - on - month, up 1.16% year - on - year) [67]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports of iron ore is 142.61 million tons (up 1.46% month - on - month, down 3.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 90.7303 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year) [73]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operation rate of coking coal mines is 88.38% (up 0.78% month - on - month, up 3.37% year - on - year), and the operation rate of coal washing plants is 63.01% (up 1.79% month - on - month, down 6.15% year - on - year). The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 138,100 tons (down 2.48% month - on - month, up 63.94% year - on - year) [79]. - **Demand**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions is 75.36% (down 5.86% week - on - week, down 18.65% year - on - year) [82]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 9 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month, up 117 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants is 75.27% (up 2.53% month - on - month, up 15.23% year - on - year) [88]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants is 8.2006 million tons (down 1.21% month - on - month, up 26.74% year - on - year), and the coking coal inventory at the port is 3.2479 million tons (down 3.73% month - on - month, up 47.29% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants is 688,200 tons (up 1.27% month - on - month, up 35.74% year - on - year), and the coke inventory at the port is 2.4358 million tons (down 1.02% month - on - month, up 15.83% year - on - year) [94][100]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1,300 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 600 yuan/ton year - on - year) [106]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly widened, and the spread between rebar 05 - 10 contracts has shown a narrow - range fluctuation. The spread between iron ore 05 - 09 contracts has narrowed, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly widened [108][113].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro Aspect**: Domestic important meetings have released positive policy signals, and the negative impact of US tariffs has weakened. Market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation [4]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: It is expected that the previously overhauled plants will resume production this week. The market's end - of - month settlement prices are gradually released, and demand for restocking has slowed down. The East China liquid caustic soda market is expected to be weak and stable. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. To keep inventory levels stable, some enterprises have offered discounts on sales, which is reasonable [4]. - **Overall Logic**: The weak operation of alumina prices continues to have a negative feedback effect on caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the cost - end support below. Caustic soda may be weak and consolidate at a low level this week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has weakened again. The basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has fluctuated steadily. From April 18th to April 24th, the price of 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 820 yuan/ton to 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22%; the price of 50% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda dropped from 1460 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74%. The prices of other products such as raw salt, flake caustic soda, and light soda ash remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures (active contracts) compared with soda ash, alumina, PVC futures, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipts [15][16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Affected by newly added overhaul plants in Northwest, Central, and South China, the load decreased, while the load in North and Southwest China increased after the overhaul of plants ended. In Shandong, there were both复产 and减产 enterprises, and the复产 capacity was greater than the减产 capacity, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 4.0% to 91%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda will rise to about 84%, and the weekly output will be about 809,500 tons [20]. - **Downstream - Alumina**: There were both production increases and decreases in the alumina market during the week. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina increased significantly. Some previously overhauled alumina enterprises resumed production after the overhaul, while some enterprises started roasting furnace overhauls due to unstable product quality. As of April 24th, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 85.4 million tons, and the operating rate was 81.97% (+ 0.23%) [25]. - **Inventory Side**: As of April 24th, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 24.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The storage capacity ratios in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased month - on - month, while those in North, East, and South China decreased month - on - month [29]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 143 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25%. At the beginning of the week, the supply was stable, but downstream enterprises carried out plant overhauls due to profit shrinkage, resulting in a significant reduction in demand, poor trading atmosphere, and mostly lower prices. The price of liquid chlorine in Jiangsu also decreased following the trend in Shandong, with the current mainstream price at around - 250 yuan/ton. The downstream operating rate was not high, and purchases were made on demand. The mainstream price in Anhui was - 50 yuan/ton. The domestic PVC market continued to operate weakly [32]. - **Chlor - alkali Cost and Profit**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 347 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 46.41%. During the week, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the price of liquid chlorine decreased slightly, resulting in an overall increase in chlor - alkali profits [35].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 铜铝有所回暖，警惕假期风险 ——铜铝周报2025.04.28 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内重要会议释放政策利多信号，美国关税利空减弱， | 沪铜2506合约 | | | | 市场避险情绪有所降温，关注谈判情况。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：当前国内铜精矿加工费仍然处于负值，铜价高位回落后， | 位79000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 终端消费有所恢复，社会库存延续性去库；截至4月24日，全国主流 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 地区铜库存降至18.17万吨，连续八周去库。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：特朗普关税言论反复摇摆，市场情绪有所缓和，铜价 | 75000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 向 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（75）期 发布日期：2025-04-28 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 959.00 | 956.00 | 3.0 | 0.314 | | | 焦炭 | 1,577.00 | 1,566.00 | 11.0 | 0.702 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,795.00 | 14,720.00 | 75.0 | 0.510 | | | 20号胶 | 12,355.00 | 12,300.00 | 55.0 | Q.447 | | | 塑料 | 7,154.00 | 7,150.00 | 4.0 | 0.056 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（73）期 发布日期：2025-04-24 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/4/24 | 2025/4/23 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 961.50 | 962.50 | -1.0 | -0.104 | | | 焦炭 | 1,594.50 | 1,595.00 | -0.50 | -0.031 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,555.00 | 14,695.00 | -140.0 | -0.953 | | | 20号胶 | 12,345.00 | 12,530.00 | -185.0 | -1.476 | | | 塑料 | 7,179.00 | 7,214.00 | - ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - shares continued the pattern of strong heavy - weight stocks and weak small - cap stocks this week, with sluggish market trading. On April 18, the A - share trading volume was less than one trillion, hitting the lowest level since the "924" market last year [2]. - For index options, different strategies are recommended for different varieties. For index options, the trend strategy is mainly defensive or a long - 50 and short - 1000 spread, and the volatility strategy is to buy a wide - straddle after the volatility drops to bet on the increase in volatility [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1沪深300股指期权（IO） - The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly. The weekly line returned to the 120 - week moving average, and the three - color K - line indicator on the weekly line remained green. The daily three - color K - line indicator turned gray [2][10][13]. - The IF futures current - month contract's premium to the underlying asset decreased, and the premium of the next - month contract to the current - month contract increased [21][24]. - The trading volume of IO options shrank, and the position in April did not exceed that of last month. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the position PCR increased. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased, tending to be stable. The strike prices of the maximum positions of both call and put options decreased [2][29][32][35]. - The expiration settlement price of the April contract of CSI 300 index options was at a six - month low, and the exercise rate increased [37]. 3.2中证1000股指期权（MO） - The daily line of the CSI 1000 index first rose and then fell. The weekly line barely held the 850 - week moving average, and the three - color K - line indicators on both the daily and weekly lines remained green [2][41][43]. - The IM futures current - month contract's premium to the underlying asset decreased, and the premium of the next - month contract to the current - month contract also decreased [51][53]. - The trading volume of MO options shrank, but the position in April exceeded that of last month. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the position PCR increased. The implied volatility decreased. The range of strike prices of the maximum positions of call and put options narrowed [2][59][62][65]. - The expiration settlement price of the April contract of CSI 1000 index options was at a five - month low, and the exercise rate decreased [67]. 3.3上证50股指期权（HO） - The SSE 50 index returned to the 850 - day moving average. The weekly line had two consecutive positive candles, and the three - color K - line indicator on the weekly line turned gray. The daily three - color K - line indicator turned red [2][71][73]. - The IH futures current - month contract's premium to the underlying asset decreased, and the premium of the next - month contract to the current - month contract first expanded and then shrank [81][83]. - The trading volume of HO options increased, but the position in April did not exceed that of the previous six months. Both the trading volume PCR and the position PCR of options increased. The implied volatility stabilized. The strike prices of the maximum positions of both call and put options moved up [2][90][93]. - The expiration settlement price of the April contract of SSE 50 index options was at a two - month low, and the exercise rate increased [98].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market shows a clear contradiction of oversupply and low valuation in the current stage. After the seasonal stocking, the weather factor will continue to suppress the market. It is recommended to short after the rebound and continue the JD59 positive spread strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market Review - **Egg Futures**: Last week, the futures market showed concerns about the short - term spot price increase. The futures market was stagnant and needed further guidance from the spot market. Although the spot market may still have room to rise, the futures market has started to reflect the post - holiday spot price expectations. It will still take time for the market to break away from the bottom range [6]. - **Egg Spot**: Last week, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by downstream stocking, the spot price rebounded from the bottom and fluctuated in the range of 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty. However, after the May Day stocking, the downstream market will return to weakness, and the weather will become the main factor suppressing the spot price [6]. 3.2 Supply Side - **New - added Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2024 to January 2025, which remains at a high level and is higher than the historical average [10]. - **Eliminated Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the normal eliminated capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [10]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new - added capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination volume is high, which may lead to a slowdown in phased supply [10]. 3.3 Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens fluctuates at a high level, the elimination volume slows down significantly, the average elimination age is about 530 days, and the elimination enthusiasm is increasing [13]. 3.4 Market Factors - **Seasonality**: The seasonal strength - weakness conversion occurs, and the restocking demand is still the main support for the current market [15]. - **Production Area**: The inventory in the production area is not high, and purchases are made on demand. The future weather in the south is not conducive to storage, and quality issues will affect egg prices [15]. - **Consumption End**: After holiday stocking, the inventory has been transferred to the downstream [15]. - **Substitute Products**: Vegetable prices are weak, and the supply has recovered, so the support for egg prices has weakened; pork prices continue to decline, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious; other meat prices have strengthened in the short term [17]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material End**: Corn and soybean meal prices have rebounded from the low level. Corn is supported by policy - based purchases, and soybean meal remains stable with a slight upward trend due to short - term spot shortages [22]. - **Cost End**: The cost continues to rise. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.6 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.9 yuan per catty [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The breeding profit has rebounded, but it has not yet emerged from the seasonal low [22]. 3.6 Capital and Market Indicators - **Capital Flow**: After the rebound this week, funds left the market and then re - entered. The short - selling main funds exerted force again [25]. - **Basis**: The basis has fallen from a high level. The spot price has dropped significantly after the holiday, but the basis has stabilized and strengthened later, which is expected to provide some support for the market [27]. - **Spread**: With the rebound of the spot price, the near - term contracts are supported, and the spread has strengthened. In the future, the positive spread strategy will be the main approach [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, the weekly output continued to decline, consumption slightly rebounded, traders were cautious with low - inventory. Steel mills pressured prices during procurement, and the game continued. Although the approaching Politburo meeting improved the market atmosphere and provided some support at low prices, the medium - term bearish pattern remained unchanged, and prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level. Strategies could be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For silicomanganese, the mills' losses persisted, production continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, weekly consumption decreased, and the pressure from high - level warehouse receipts remained. The price of manganese ore weakened, and port inventory was at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicomanganese remained loose, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly at a low level [28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - The output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 10030 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72% and a year - on - year increase of 9.02%. In March 2025, the ferrosilicon output was 50270 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.85% and a year - on - year increase of 18.02% [7]. 3.1.2 Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 2050 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% and a year - on - year increase of 3.45%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 872710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.42% [9]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory (bi - weekly data) was 9490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.15% and a year - on - year increase of 50.45%. The steel mill inventory days in March were 16.26 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.42 days. The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 13757, a week - on - week increase of 2552 and a year - on - year decrease of 1587 [12][20]. 3.1.4 Cost - The electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the price of oxidized iron scale dropped, leading to a slight decline in costs. Although the profit in Inner Mongolia improved, overall losses still existed [4][17]. 3.1.5 Basis - The basis of the main contract was 218 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 146 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.6 Position - The total position of ferrosilicon increased [21]. 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 18860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62% and a year - on - year increase of 18.57%. In March 2025, the national silicomanganese output was 89910 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.68% and a year - on - year increase of 6.52% [31]. 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 12630 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 3.44%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 872710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.42% [34]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory (bi - weekly data) was 15760 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.57%. The steel mill inventory days in March were 16.61 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.58 days. The number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 119504, a week - on - week increase of 2003 and a year - on - year increase of 67274 [37][38]. 3.2.4 Cost - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port continued to decline, and the cost of silicomanganese kept moving down. Although the electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased and the profit improved, losses still persisted [28][44]. 3.2.5 Basis - The basis of the main contract was +154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [28]. 3.2.6 Position - The total position of silicomanganese increased on a weekly basis [45].