1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a strong upward trend. Recently, urea enterprises had a mix of device maintenance and复产, and the supply was expected to decline in the short - term and then recover. On the demand side, there was an expected marginal weakening of agricultural top - dressing demand. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, and the start - up was expected to gradually recover from a low level after the second half of the month, with finished product inventory still in the process of de - stocking. Regarding exports, export expectations were frequently disturbed recently, and the domestic - foreign price difference remained high. The domestic urea port inventory had increased to 48.9 tons month - on - month. Overall, agricultural demand replenishment and export release drove the continuous de - stocking of urea enterprise inventory. Macro and export expectations strongly disturbed the futures market. In the short term, the urea futures price might continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The upper resistance level of the UR2509 contract was around 1,780 - 1,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Device maintenance and复产 coexisted, and supply was expected to decline in the short - term and then recover [4]. - **Demand**: Attention should be paid to the pre - sales and start - up of autumn fertilizers. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, and the start - up of melamine decreased [4][34]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to increase, and the inventory pressure of urea enterprises eased. Urea enterprise inventory was 96.77 tons (month - on - month decrease of 5.08 tons), port inventory was 48.9 tons (month - on - month increase of 4.9 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (month - on - month increase of 10.82%) [4][31]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and urea profits increased month - on - month [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the 09 basis changed little [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price showed a strong upward trend this week [6]. - **International Urea Price**: International urea prices increased significantly [10]. - **Supply**: The weekly urea production was 138.18 tons (+1.12%), including 107.23 tons of coal - based urea production (+0.21%) and 30.95 tons of gas - based urea production (+4.42%), with an average daily output of 19.7 tons. Some enterprises had planned maintenance [16][20][24]. - **Inventory**: As mentioned above, port inventory increased and enterprise inventory decreased [27][31]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 29.83% (+0.58%), and the finished product inventory was 67.26 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.62 tons). The start - up rate of melamine was 62.56% (-0.22%) [34]. - **Raw Material End**: Coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend [36]. - **Profit**: The production profit of urea fixed - bed and water - coal slurry devices was analyzed, and the profit increased month - on - month [42][43]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the 09 basis changed little [45]. - **Urea - related Product Spread**: The spreads between urea and related products such as liquid ammonia and ammonium chloride were analyzed [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Silicon Ferrosilicon - Last week, the silicon ferrosilicon futures market rose after a surge but continued to lift its center of gravity. Rumors on Thursday drove a rapid rebound in the market, but local enterprises did not receive relevant news. Supply and demand data showed little fluctuation, with raw material costs expected to remain stable and manufacturer inventories slightly increasing after a halt in decline. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5400 - 5800 [4]. Manganese Silico - Manganese - Last week, the weekly supply of manganese silico - manganese increased while demand decreased, and the futures market slightly declined after a surge. The short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, but the overall manganese ore inventory is low, and the cost support has strengthened. The alloy trading idea is short - term long and long - term short, and the industry can consider hedging when the basis is repaired and the upper pressure level is reached. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5700 - 6000 [22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Silicon Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises was 9.87 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 13.7% year - on - year). The output in June 2025 was 41.41 tons (down 0.18% month - on - month and 14.13% year - on - year) [6]. Demand - The consumption of silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 2.01 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 2.9% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [9]. Inventory - Manufacturer inventory was 7.02 tons (up 4.8% week - on - week and 22.8% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.38 days (up 0.18 days month - on - month and 0.83 days year - on - year) [11]. Cost - Electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The prices of other raw materials such as semi - coke remained stable. The cost of silicon ferrosilicon in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, and the profit increased [14]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract was 90 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,519 (up 8,242 week - on - week and 6,903 year - on - year) [17]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [19]. Manganese Silico - Manganese Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent manganese silico - manganese enterprises was 18.2 tons (up 1.2% week - on - week and down 18.2% year - on - year). The national output in June was 75.23 tons (up 1.3% month - on - month and down 19.1% year - on - year) [24]. Demand - The weekly consumption of manganese silico - manganese was 12.49 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 3.7% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [26]. Inventory - The sample enterprise inventory was 22.08 tons (down 0.67% week - on - week and up 51.4% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.49 days (up 0.34 days month - on - month and 0.42 days year - on - year) [29]. Cost - Manganese ore quotes were firm. Electricity prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the cost of manganese silico - manganese in various regions decreased slightly while the profit increased [36]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton, down 48 week - on - week. The number of manganese silico - manganese warehouse receipts was 85,037 (down 3,649 week - on - week and 43,238 year - on - year) [31]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global trade pattern is at a critical turning - point in 2025. The US's erratic tariff policies are driving the global trade system towards greater diversification, and the influence of the US in global trade is gradually weakening [7]. - Some economic policies and events, such as the extension of the EU's suspension of counter - measures against US tariffs, the possible implementation of US tariffs on other countries, and the acceleration of local special bond land acquisition projects, are having an impact on the market [8]. - Different sectors in the market, including agriculture, energy, industry, and finance, are showing various trends and challenges, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to different situations [10][11][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro Indicators**: On July 14, 2025, compared with July 11, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 279.13 points (-0.625%), the Nasdaq Index decreased by 45.13 points (-0.219%), and the S&P 500 declined by 20.71 points (-0.330%). The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.026 (0.027%), while the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - **Foreign Contracts**: COMEX gold rose by 37.3 (1.119%), COMEX silver increased by 1.45 (3.854%), NYMEX crude oil went up by 1.88 (2.811%), and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.54 (2.236%). Some metals like LME copper, LME aluminum, etc., showed small declines [2]. - **Domestic Contracts**: In the metal category, gold and silver prices increased, while copper, zinc, and other metals decreased slightly. In the chemical industry, most products such as coke, plastic, and PTA rose, while some like natural rubber and 20 - number glue declined. In the agricultural products sector, some products like yellow soybean No. 1 and palm oil increased, while others like corn and corn starch decreased [2][4] 3.2 Macro News - Global trade is evolving, with the US's position weakening and emerging economies becoming new growth points. Diplomatic activities, such as the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, are promoting international cooperation [7]. - Domestic economic research and policy - related activities are underway, like the National Development and Reform Commission's research in Hebei and the proposal of interest - rate cuts by a former Fed official [7]. - Trade policies and tariff issues are the focus of international attention, including the possible implementation of US tariffs and the EU's response [8] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - The peanut market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be slightly strong in the short - term but still on a downward trend. The oil market is trading lightly, with prices expected to fluctuate. Corn prices are under pressure due to factors like wheat substitution, and short - term bearish thinking is recommended [10]. - The price of live pigs has peaked and declined. Egg prices are rising, and there is a certain support for the spot market, but there are still pressures such as production capacity release and delivery [10][11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - The price of caustic soda is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure in the range of 2500 - 2600 yuan/ton. The urea market price is stable, and the UR2509 contract should pay attention to the pressure around 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton [11] 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to factors such as the proposed US tariff increase and Fed policy uncertainty. Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but may be restricted by weak orders and export difficulties. Alumina prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the May high [11][13] - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate, and the prices of ferroalloys are short - term bullish and long - term bearish. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be firm in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The lithium carbonate market is multi - empty intertwined, and band operation is recommended [13][15][16] 3.3.4 Options and Finance - The A - share market has a positive trading sentiment, and the financial sector is expected to be the main driving force in the short - term. Options trading shows certain characteristics, and different investment strategies are recommended for trend and volatility investors [18][21][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with some indices and commodities rising while others falling. The macro - economic environment is influenced by various policies and events, and different sectors have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [2][4][6]. - The "anti - involution" policy expectations in some industries are rising, which may lead to a bottom - up rebound in the prices of some commodities and have a positive impact on PPI and CPI [18]. - In the stock market, A - shares are performing well, but there are still risks of abnormal fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to the performance of different indices and sectors [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Index and Commodity Price Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On July 11, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.433% to 44650.64, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.094% to 20630.66, the S&P 500 rose 0.275% to 6280.46, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.569% to 24028.37 [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.316% to 3333.00, COMEX silver rose 2.787% to 37.63, while NYMEX crude oil fell 2.079% to 66.87 and ICE Brent oil fell 1.852% to 68.88 [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - From January 1, 2025, the basic pension for retirees who completed retirement procedures and received pensions by the end of 2024 will be increased by 2% [6]. - The US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates and considered appointing a "shadow chairman" to pressure the Fed [6]. - China's automobile production and sales in June 2025 increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively, and new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 26.4% and 26.7% year - on - year [7]. - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, 2025 [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range shock. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term but still in a downward trend [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: The trading volume of oils and fats increased, and it is expected to be volatile in the near future [11]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar has broken through the shock range, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The risk lies in the rebound of raw sugar and the arrival of imported sugar [11]. - **Corn**: The supply of corn is under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a stop - loss at 2330 yuan [11]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing, and the room for price increase is limited [13]. - **Eggs**: The price of eggs is expected to rise seasonally, and the futures market is expected to rebound [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: Due to the rebound of coal prices and positive market sentiment, caustic soda has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the pressure in the range of 2500 - 2600 yuan/ton [13]. - **Urea**: The price of urea is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to export quotas and the follow - up of autumn fertilizers [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The increase in copper tariffs and policy uncertainty put pressure on copper prices, while low inventory supports aluminum prices but weak orders may limit the upside [15]. - **Alumina**: The macro - market atmosphere drives the increase in alumina prices, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the May high [15]. - **Steel Products**: The price of steel products is expected to be strongly volatile due to factors such as the closure of ports during the Mongolian Naadam Festival and the relatively stable inventory [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Affected by rumors and policy expectations, ferroalloys rose strongly, and the long - term over - capacity pattern remains [15]. - **Double Cokes**: Due to the port closure and the expected increase in coke prices, double cokes are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance. It is recommended to trade in the range of 63,000 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose, and the trading volume increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC, and be cautious about market fluctuations [19][20]. - **Options**: The trading volume and open interest of some options increased, and the implied volatility changed. Trend investors can conduct long - 50 and short - 1000 arbitrage, and volatility investors can buy straddles [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that China's June CPI turned positive after four consecutive months of decline, and the core CPI continued to rise. The US announced new tariff policies, and the Fed's internal views on interest rates are divided. The EU is ready to counter - US trade measures. These factors will have an impact on the global financial and commodity markets [7][8]. - In the commodity market, different varieties have different trends. For example, agricultural products such as peanuts are in a weak supply - demand situation, while the outlook for oils and fats is relatively strong. In the energy and chemical sector, urea shows a short - term upward trend, and in the industrial metals sector, copper prices are affected by tariff policies, and aluminum is in a weak market situation [12][13][14]. - In the stock market, A - shares are affected by factors such as "anti - involution" policies and trade tariff policies. The market can be observed from new and traditional directions, and investors need to pay attention to market fluctuations [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Global Stock Indexes**: On July 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.492% to 44458.30, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.945% to 20611.34, the S&P 500 rose 0.606% to 6263.26, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.059% to 23892.32 [2]. - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.31 with a 0.076% increase, the US dollar index fell 0.051% to 97.44, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold rose 0.347% to 3322.50, COMEX silver fell 0.867% to 36.61, etc. In the domestic market, gold rose 0.548% to 771.02, silver fell 0.326% to 8870.00, etc. [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **China's Economic Data**: In June, China's CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, hitting a 14 - month high. The PPI fell 0.4% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year [7]. - **US Tariff Policy**: Trump announced new tariff policies on 8 countries, with tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective from August 1 [7]. - **China's Employment Policy**: The State Council issued new employment support policies, including expanding loan support, increasing unemployment insurance return ratios, etc. [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to view it as a low - level shock [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The total turnover of oils and fats decreased by 75% compared with the previous trading day. The开机率 of domestic oil mills is expected to rise slightly, and the market is expected to be strong and volatile [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to continue a technical rebound, but attention should be paid to the pressure at the 5800 integer mark [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market is under pressure from imports and wheat substitution. The 2330 yuan level is the key point, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs in the next 2 - 3 months is relatively abundant, and the room for price increases is limited [14]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to bottom out and rebound due to factors such as reduced production and increased demand [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals of caustic soda lack strong support, and it rebounds with the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [14]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is relatively sufficient, and the demand is gradually recovering. The futures price shows a strong and volatile trend [14]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The US tariff policy on copper has a significant impact on copper prices. The aluminum market is in a weak situation due to factors such as increased production and weak demand [14][15][16]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity of alumina has decreased, and the cost is expected to decline slightly. The price rebounds with the market, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the May high [16]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is affected by the off - season and macro - environment. The steel price fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the resistance levels of rebar at 3100 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3250 - 3300 yuan [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market rebounds in the short term, but the long - term over - capacity situation remains. The trading idea is short - term long and long - term short [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the Naadam Festival in Mongolia, the coking coal price rebounds, and the double - coking market is short - term strong and volatile [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is supported by factors such as maintenance and low warehouse receipts, but it is also restricted by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations [17]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Indexes**: A - shares are affected by factors such as "anti - involution" policies and trade tariff policies. The market can be observed from new and traditional directions. Investors should pay attention to market fluctuations and choose appropriate investment strategies [17][18][19]. - **Options**: Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions to bet on increased volatility [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is expected to have increased volatility in July, with the pricing theme likely revolving around "domestic policy formulation + interim report performance disclosure + escalating external changes". The market may see a shift in market - cap style towards mid - cap stocks, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate steadily upwards [17]. - Different sectors have different trends. For example, the agricultural product market has mixed trends, with peanuts in a weak supply - demand situation, and sugar facing import pressure; the energy - chemical sector has varying fundamentals, such as the lack of strong support for caustic soda and the inventory reduction of urea; the industrial metal sector has different outlooks for different metals, and the overall steel price may face a callback pressure; the option - financial sector shows an upward - oscillating structure for the stock index, and specific strategies are proposed for option trading [11][13][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro Indicators**: On July 7, 2025, compared with July 4, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 344.11 (0.774%), the Nasdaq Index rose 207.97 (1.020%), the S&P 500 rose 51.93 (0.834%), the Hang Seng Index fell 153.88 (- 0.639%), and SHIBOR overnight fell 0.002 (- 0.152%). The US dollar index and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained almost unchanged [2]. - **External Futures**: COMEX gold rose 10.5 (0.315%), COMEX silver rose 0.095 (0.256%), LME copper fell 99.5 (- 1.0%), LME aluminum fell 8 (- 0.307%), etc. Some products like ICE11 - sugar, ICE2 - cotton, etc. remained unchanged [2]. - **Domestic Futures**: In the metal sector, gold fell 0.06 (- 0.008%), silver rose 12 (0.135%); in the chemical sector, coking coal rose 6 (0.715%), coke fell 3 (- 0.209%); in the agricultural product sector, yellow soybean No.1 fell 8 (- 0.195%), yellow soybean No.2 rose 6 (0.167%) [2][4]. 3.2 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang attended the 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit and proposed to establish a China - BRICS New - quality Productivity Research Center and set up the BRICS New Industry "Golden Egret" Excellence Scholarship [6]. - China's Ministry of Finance announced measures for the procurement of some EU - imported medical devices in government procurement activities, and the Ministry of Commerce stated that the measures only target EU - imported products, and products produced by European - funded enterprises in China are not affected [6]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the trade negotiation is at a deadlock in the final stage, and there may be several major announcements in the next few days. If an agreement is not reached by August 1, tariffs will return to the April level [7]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members [7]. - The market generally expects that the new RMB loans and social financing in June will increase month - on - month [7]. - As of now, the national cumulative purchase of wheat exceeds 50 million tons, and the expected purchase of new - season summer grain is about 100 million tons, with wheat accounting for about 85 million tons [8]. - The global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts are in a weak supply - demand situation, with slow inventory clearance and a recommended view of low - level oscillation [11]. - On July 4, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 75% compared with the previous trading day. The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 27th week was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%. The international sugar price is under pressure, while the domestic sugar price is at a key resistance level of 5780 yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the price trend [11]. - On July 3, the corn futures main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the price has fallen below the 40 - day moving average support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the import corn auction and other factors [11]. - The live - pig spot price reached a peak and then declined. Although the supply was tightened in July, the demand was suppressed by high temperatures, and the future increase is limited. The futures market may return to weakness after the basis repair [13]. - The egg price was stable last week and weakened over the weekend. The market has a strong bearish expectation, and the futures market is expected to oscillate in a range or weaken again [13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical - The caustic soda market has a bearish atmosphere, with supply expected to increase. It lacks strong fundamental support and should pay attention to the pressure at 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [13]. - The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is expected to increase after a short - term decline, and the inventory is decreasing. The futures price may oscillate and consolidate, and the UR2509 contract should pay attention to the 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton range [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - The copper and aluminum market has a positive macro sentiment. After breaking through the pressure level, a bullish view can be taken [15]. - The alumina market has a relatively loose supply, and the production cost is expected to decline slightly. The price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the May high [15]. - The steel price has limited upward momentum in the short term, and there is a risk of a small - scale callback. Rebar should pay attention to the pressure around 3100 yuan, and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the pressure around 3250 yuan [15]. - The ferroalloy market has a short - term bullish and long - term bearish view. If there is no policy intervention, the supply pressure will increase. The industry can consider hedging at the upper pressure level [15]. - The double - coke market has limited upward space and should be treated with an oscillating view [15]. - The lithium carbonate futures price has risen, but there is inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the 65000 - yuan pressure level and the 63000 - yuan support level [17]. 3.3.4 Option - Financial - The stock index has an upward - oscillating structure. In July, the market volatility may increase, and the market - cap style may shift to mid - cap stocks. It is recommended to pay attention to IF, IM, and IC for low - buying opportunities [17]. - In the option market, different indexes have different trends. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions to bet on increased volatility [19]. 3.4 Personnel Information The report lists the names, qualification certificates, and investment - consulting certificates of relevant personnel in the agricultural product, industrial product, and financial option sectors [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - aspect, the economic and policy environment has an impact on different industries. The stock market is in an upward trend with strong bulls, but there are also uncertainties in the market expectations. In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [19][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Indicators - On July 4, 2025, compared with July 3, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.774% to 44828.53, the Nasdaq Index rose 1.020% to 20601.10, the S&P 500 rose 0.834% to 6279.35, and the Hang Seng Index fell 0.625% to 24069.94. SHIBOR overnight fell 3.663% to 1.32, the US dollar index fell 0.087% to 97.03, and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.16 [2]. - For commodities, COMEX gold fell 0.971% to 3336.00, COMEX silver rose 0.680% to 37.04, LME copper fell 0.584% to 9951.50, etc. [2]. 3.2 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce has no information on the report of the US President's potential visit with a business delegation, and hopes the US and China can promote healthy and stable development of economic and trade relations [7]. - The US has revoked the requirement for three major chip - design software suppliers to apply for government permission for their business in China [7]. - The State Council will replicate 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free - Trade Zone, with 34 measures extended to other free - trade zones and 43 to the whole country [7]. - The US House of Representatives passed Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [8]. - China and the EU held the 13th high - level strategic dialogue, and China will ensure normal demand for rare - earth exports from European enterprises [8]. - In June, the Caixin China Services PMI was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, and the Composite PMI output index rebounded 1.7 percentage points to 51.3 [8]. - From January to May, China's service trade volume was 32543.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%, with exports growing 15.1% and imports growing 2.7% [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will address the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range adjustment. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [11]. - For oils and fats, on June 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 57% compared with the previous trading day. About 12% of US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought in the week of June 24, and the palm oil export volume from June 1 - 25 in Malaysia increased [11]. - On July 3, the sugar futures main contract closed at 5767 yuan/ton. The domestic sugar market has good sales data, but international sugar prices are weak. It is recommended to go long with caution [11]. - On July 3, the corn futures main contract closed at 2363 yuan/ton, slightly down. The supply - demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - The price of live pigs is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is stable and the demand is improving. The futures main contract is strong [13]. - The price of eggs is stable. The short - term supply exceeds demand, but there are positive expectations in the medium - term. It is recommended to try to go long [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - For caustic soda, the market sentiment has improved, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [13]. - The price of urea fluctuates slightly. Supply is expected to decrease in July, and demand is increasing. The futures price may continue to fluctuate [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - For copper and aluminum, the market macro - sentiment is positive, and a long - position thinking can be adopted after breaking through the pressure level [15]. - For alumina, the cost is expected to decrease slightly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the May high [15]. - For steel products, the steel price is firm in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [15]. - For ferroalloys, the price rebound may release supply pressure in the long - term. A short - term long and long - term short strategy is recommended [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal market fluctuates, and coke has a price - increase expectation, but the raw - material support is weakening [15]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see. If it breaks through the previous high, a small - position long position can be considered [17]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - The stock market is in an upward trend. The main indexes have reached new highs, and the technology and pharmaceutical sectors are performing well. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC, and adjust positions according to market sentiment [19][21]. - For options, different options have different volume and position changes, and trend investors should focus on defense, while volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions [22].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/3 08:00 | 2025/7/2 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44484.42 | 44494.94 | -10.520 | -0.024 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20393.13 | 20202.89 | 190.240 | 0.942 | | 标普500 | | 6227.42 | 6198.01 | 29.410 | 0.475 | | 恒生指数 | | 24221.41 | 24072.28 | 149.130 | 0.620 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.37 | -0.002 | -0.146 | | 美元指数 | | 96.75 | 96.78 | -0.032 | -0.033 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.17 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/1 | 涨 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（118）期 发布日期：2025-07-02 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/2 08:00 | 2025/7/1 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44494.94 | 44094.77 | 400.170 | 0.908 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20202.89 | 20369.73 | -166.840 | -0.819 | | 标普500 | | 6198.01 | 6204.95 | -6.940 | -0.112 | | 恒生指数 | | 24072.28 | 24284.15 | -211.870 | -0.872 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.42 | -0.055 | -3.868 | | 美元指数 | | 96.65 | 96.65 | 0.005 | 0.005 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.16 | 7.16 | 0 | 0 | | 主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The A - share market showed an upward trend last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high this year. The market is expected to have mainly structural opportunities during the upcoming interim report season. Investment directions to focus on include sectors with good interim report performance and high certainty, assets with high safety margins, the large - consumption sector boosted by policies, and core assets of innovative drugs [8]. - The performance of various commodity sectors is diverse. For example, some chemical products like PTA and PX had price increases, while some agricultural products like palm oil and corn had price decreases. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3]. - In the stock and option markets, there are opportunities and risks. For A - shares, the recent performance of the market is strong, but attention should be paid to factors such as the impact of US Treasury over - issuance on liquidity in July. In the option market, different index options have different characteristics and trading strategies [22][23][25]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - From June 28th - 29th, 2025, the 2025 Listed Companies Forum was held in Wenzhou. Representatives from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hong Kong stock exchanges released multi - dimensional reform signals. More than 30 A - share companies have submitted applications for H - share listings, and over 20 A - share companies have announced H - share listing plans [6]. - China decided to conditionally resume imports of some aquatic products from Japan under certain conditions [6]. - Hikvision strongly opposed the Canadian government's decision to shut down its Canadian subsidiary. The Chinese embassy in Canada also expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [7]. - Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao said that Hong Kong should play a role in "connecting internally and communicating externally" and seize opportunities [7]. - In the first half of this year, theme funds related to innovative drugs, humanoid robots, the Beijing Stock Exchange, and new consumption had good investment returns, while AI theme funds had relatively poor performance [7]. - Last week, the A - share market rose. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high this year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 3.73% and 5.69% respectively. The market is expected to have mainly structural opportunities in the future [8]. - The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 1st. It is predicted that gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 600 yuan/ton [8]. - From January to May this year, domestic passenger ship passenger volume increased by 7.37% year - on - year, international - voyaging ship arrivals and departures increased by 2.45% year - on - year, and international - voyaging ship cargo volume increased by 1.66% year - on - year, indicating an improving economic situation [8] 3.2 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market: The price is basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [12]. - Oil market: The trading volume decreased, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile [12]. - Sugar market: The sugar price may continue to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [12]. - Corn market: It is recommended to operate with a light position in the short term, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [12]. - Pig market: The spot price is slightly stronger, and the futures market needs to see if the spot price can provide further support [14]. - Egg market: The supply exceeds demand, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile [14]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea market: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the short - term market may fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to export quotas [13][14]. - Caustic soda market: The fundamentals lack strong support, and although the price rebounded on Thursday, the upward space is not optimistic [14]. - Coking coal market: Affected by safety inspections, the start - up rate decreased, and the short - term trend is firm, but continuous rebound depends on terminal demand and supply reduction [15][16]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum market: Driven by positive trade negotiation information, the prices are strong [16]. - Alumina market: The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be low in the medium term. Attention should be paid to macro - market sentiment [16]. - Steel market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils rose at night on Friday, but the upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure of inventory accumulation in the off - season [16]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese market: The supply and demand situation is complex, and the trading strategy is short - term long and long - term short [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate market: The price has broken through the upper limit of the shock range, but the high inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait for the inventory inflection point signal [18]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock index market: The market is strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the support at 3410 and trading volume. For theme stocks, pay attention to low - buying opportunities for IM and IC [22][23]. - Option market: The trading volume of options increased last week, and different index options have different characteristics. Trend investors can consider long - 1000 and short - 50 arbitrage, and volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions [25].