Report Title - Macro atmosphere rebounds, steel prices rebound from lows - Weekly Report 20250512 [1] Core Views - The implementation of the "package of financial policies" by the State Council Information Office and the substantial progress in the China - US talks have boosted market confidence, and the macro atmosphere has improved. After the holiday, affected by factors, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased. It is expected that the demand will improve on a low - base basis in the week after the holiday, and steel prices will be supported at low levels and show a phased rebound [3]. - The supply of iron ore shows a phased contraction, and the iron ore supply - demand structure has improved, which, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere, leads to a phased rebound of the black series after over - decline. The main iron ore contract should pay attention to the pressure around 730 - 750 [4]. - After the holiday, the overall supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and the online auction turnover rate is still low. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, but the second - round price increase of coke has been shelved. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, it is stable in the short - term at low levels and should be treated with an oscillatory view [5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - After the holiday, with the implementation of macro - policy expectations, the market returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. Affected by the holiday, the demand for the five major steel products declined significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, the market pessimism rose, the futures prices fell significantly, the spot prices decreased synchronously, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 223.53 tons (down 4.22% month - on - month and 3.07% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 320.38 tons (up 0.34% month - on - month and down 1.46% year - on - year). The production of both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar decreased [15][17][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast - furnace operating rate remained stable at 84.62% (up 0.34 month - on - month and 4.99% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate slightly decreased to 72.73% (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 13.32% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils shrank month - on - month. The rebar profit was + 90 yuan/ton (down 29.69% week - on - week and 24.37% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil profit was + 30 yuan/ton (down 39.47 week - on - week and 58.93% year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 213.9 tons (down 26.67% month - on - month and 26.32% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 309.53 tons (down 6.97% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year). The demand for rebar declined significantly, and the demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 653.63 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year), with the factory inventory increasing and the social inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 365.12 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and down 13.37% year - on - year), with the factory inventory slightly decreasing and the social inventory increasing [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 18.97% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 12.36% month - on - month and 58.37% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% [46][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 97.82 (up 0.64% month - on - month and down 15.95% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2422.5 tons (down 4.64% month - on - month and 0.95% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2354.6 tons (down 3.88% month - on - month and up 9.70% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily pig - iron output was 245.64 tons (up 0.22 tons month - on - month and 6.39 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.21 tons (down 5.01% month - on - month and up 5.95% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.48 days (down 3.94% month - on - month and 9.60% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 14238.71 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and 3.83% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8958.98 tons (down 4.03% month - on - month and 3.91% year - on - year) [66][71]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 89.92% (up 0.20% month - on - month and 3.26% year - on - year), the coal - washing plant operating rate was 62.42% (down 0.87% month - on - month and 2.62% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 13.37 tons (up 63.10% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [73][77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was + 1 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month and 62 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.05% (down 0.50% month - on - month and up 4.29% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 775.13 tons (down 4.33% month - on - month and up 7.69% year - on - year), the steel - mill coking coal inventory was 787.41 tons (up 0.36 month - on - month and 6.33% year - on - year), and the port coking coal inventory was 297.81 tons (down 4.48% month - on - month and up 30.91% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 65.09 tons (down 2.94% month - on - month and up 43.53% year - on - year), the steel - mill coke inventory was 671.03 tons (down 0.62% month - on - month and up 20.53% year - on - year), and the port coke inventory was 229.08 tons (down 3.80% month - on - month and up 2.97% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week and 780 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 700 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][103]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread also widened. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread widened in the short - term [105][110]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 碳酸锂市场加速下行，基差扩大叠加库存压 力 --碳酸锂周报2025-05-09 作 者：刘培洋 研 究 助 理 ：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 联 系 方 式：0371-58620083 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂周跌1.72%至65700元/吨，工业级跌1.77%，基差周 | 短期价格或测试 | | | | 60000元/吨整数 | | | 环比激增88.73%至2680元/吨，现货升水结构强化。 | 关口，关注江西 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约暴跌3.43%至63020元/吨，持仓量逆势增13.27%，波动率 | | | | | 云母提锂成本支 | | | 929显示空头主导。 | | | | 【供应方面】：4月全国产量环比降14.81%，江西锂云母路线同比大增97.06%，青 | 撑力度。 | | | | 风险提示： | | | 海盐湖产量环比增8.33%。 | 1.仓单注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The release of the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade high-level talks has significantly improved the market sentiment. The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, and many sectors are expected to benefit. The market risk preference has increased, but there are still uncertainties in the future, and investors need to remain cautious [7][18]. Summary by Directory Macro News - The China-US economic and trade high-level talks jointly released a statement, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US will cancel 91% of the additional tariffs, and China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [6]. - China has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals for export and will organize a series of actions. The export control of strategic minerals is crucial for national security and development [6]. - The Minister of Commerce hosted a round - table meeting with foreign trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry will work with relevant departments to help foreign trade enterprises solve difficulties and promote the stable development of foreign trade [6]. - On May 12, the A - share market rose strongly, with over 4100 stocks rising. The macro - economic situation has improved, and the market is optimistic about the export and technology sectors [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications have exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications for automobile trade - in reached 3.225 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 53% [7]. - The Bank of China and other departments have issued the "30 Financial Measures for Nansha, Guangzhou" to strengthen financial support for Nansha's construction [8]. - The acquisition of autumn grain in 2024 has been completed, with a cumulative acquisition of 345 million tons, a relatively high level in recent years [8] Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is relatively stable, and the market has entered the stage of speculation on planting area. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Oils and Fats: The external market lacks strong support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Sugar: The Brazilian new - crop season has a good start, but the domestic consumption is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips near the support level of 5860 yuan/ton [11]. - Corn: The fundamentals are mixed. It is recommended to go long on dips near the support level of 2350 yuan/ton [11]. - Hogs: The spot price is stable with a weak trend. The futures market is mainly for intraday trading, and beware of basis repair [11][13]. - Eggs: The spot price is rising slightly, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. The futures market follows the spot [13]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic spot price is strong. The market may continue to fluctuate at a high level, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunities [13]. - Caustic Soda: The supply is narrowing, and the market sentiment is warming up. The 2509 contract rebounds [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply of coking coal is relatively sufficient, and the spot price may still decline. Due to the improvement of the macro - environment, the double - coking market is stable for the time being [13]. Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Affected by the China - US talks, copper and aluminum are boosted. Pay attention to the pressure at the previous gap [13][14]. - Alumina: The spot price is relatively strong, and the 2509 contract repairs the discount. Pay attention to the pressure at 2900 yuan/ton [14]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - news is positive, and the market demand is improving. The steel price is expected to continue to rebound [14]. - Ferroalloys: Due to the expansion of production cuts in Ningxia and the improvement of the macro - environment, the double - silicon market rebounds and fluctuates in a range [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold short positions near the key pressure level of 64,500 yuan/ton [14][16]. Options and Finance - Stock Index: The trade tension is relieved, and the market may continue to rebound. Focus on the technology sector and pay attention to the opportunities of high - to - low switching between sectors [18][19]. - Options: The A - share market is strong, and the implied volatility of options rises. Trend investors should defend, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to go long on volatility [20].

晨会纪要 中原期货研究所 2025 第（82）期 发布日期：2025-05-12 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/9 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 869.00 | 877.50 | -8.50 | -0.969 | | | 焦炭 | 1,441.00 | 1,446.50 | -5.50 | -0.380 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,560.00 | 14,620.00 | -60.0 | -0.410 | | | 20号胶 | 12,310.00 | 12,415.00 | -105.0 | -0.846 | | | 塑料 | 6,960.00 | 6,976.00 | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed an upward trend on May 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for three consecutive days. The military - industrial stocks remained strong, and the AI hardware direction strengthened. However, sectors such as PEEK materials and gold declined. The market trading volume decreased to 1.32 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28% to 3352 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.65% [8]. - In the futures market, different varieties had different price trends. For example, in the chemical industry, crude oil increased by 1.887%, while PVC decreased by 0.455%. In the agricultural products sector, straight fragrant rice increased by 0.928%, and cotton No. 1 decreased by 0.116% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - China and Russia deepened their comprehensive strategic partnership, and the two leaders witnessed the exchange of more than 20 bilateral cooperation texts in multiple fields [7]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade talks, stating that the US should correct wrong practices and cancel unilateral tariffs, and China will not sacrifice principles [7]. - The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the US reducing tariffs on UK - made cars to 10% and on steel and aluminum to zero. They also agreed to start negotiations on a digital trade agreement [7]. - The EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and sued the US at the WTO over its tariff policies [8]. - OpenAI made a major personnel adjustment, with co - founder and CEO Altman focusing more on core technologies [8]. 3.2 Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is stable, with limited speculation. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - Oils and fats: The external market lacks support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - Sugar: Affected by international sugar prices and domestic supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rebounds, paying attention to support and resistance levels [12]. - Corn: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is not advisable to chase long at the current price, and aggressive investors can try to go long lightly [12]. - Hogs: Spot prices are weak, and futures are range - bound. It is advisable to operate intraday [12][14]. - Eggs: Spot prices are weak, and the mid - term market faces pressure. Consider shorting in the far - month contracts [14]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The market price is stable, with high daily production and inventory de - stocking. The market may continue to consolidate at a high level [13][14]. - Caustic soda: The market fundamentals change little, and the 2509 contract may continue to operate at a low level [14]. - Coking coal and coke: Trading is weak, and they may oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Prices are low due to factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy and trade agreements [16]. - Alumina: The spot price is relatively firm, and the 2509 contract may be in low - level consolidation [16]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The market sentiment is weak, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening. Pay attention to support levels [16]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese ore shows signs of stabilizing, and the double - silicon market is in weak oscillation [16][18]. - Lithium carbonate: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate in the range of 63,000 - 65,000 yuan [18]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock index: The index maintains a strong consolidation, and the strategy is to buy on dips. Consider arbitrage strategies [18][19]. - Options: For trend investors, it is advisable to defend. Volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility drops [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a strong performance on May 6, with nearly 5000 stocks rising, and certain concepts such as controllable nuclear fusion and rare earth permanent magnets surging. The market's trading volume increased to 1.36 trillion yuan. The market sentiment was positive, but it still faced challenges from external factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision and international trade policies [7]. - Different sectors of commodities presented various trends. For example, most chemical products' prices increased on May 7 compared to May 6, while some agricultural products had mixed price movements. Each commodity had its own supply - demand relationship and influencing factors [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - China and the US will conduct economic and trade talks. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland [7]. - The A - share market had a good start after the "May Day" holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.84%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.97%, and the Northbound 50 Index rose 3.21%. The market trading volume reached 1.36 trillion yuan [7]. - China will adopt more proactive macro - policies and is confident in achieving the 5% growth target in 2025. It will continue to build a unified domestic market and expand high - level opening - up [7]. - Apple AI may launch some functions in the Chinese mainland in the iOS 18.6 system, with Baidu Wenxin Yiyan as the core cloud intelligent engine and Alibaba providing the review mechanism. Also, Apple may change the iPhone release pattern from 2026 [7]. - Xiaomi is accelerating the development of self - developed SoC chips, with a team of about 1000 employees operating independently. The new - generation chip's performance is comparable to Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen2 [8]. - The Fed is facing a dilemma, and there are hints that it may postpone interest - rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May, and is more concerned about Fed Chairman Powell's policy stance [8]. - The EU will formulate counter - measures against US tariffs on EU products, with an expected impact on 549 billion euros of EU exports to the US. If negotiations fail, the EU plans to impose tariffs on 100 billion euros of US goods [8]. - In the Japan - US tariff negotiations, the US refuses to cancel the 10% benchmark tariff and the additional 14% tariff on Japan, putting Japan in a difficult situation [8]. - The UK and India signed a free - trade agreement, which is expected to increase bilateral trade by 25.5 billion pounds annually in the long run [9]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is stable, with oil mills' demand providing some support. There is sufficient supply, and the market is in the stage of speculating on planting area, with few topics for speculation [13]. - **Oils and Fats**: According to MPOB monthly report forecasts, Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports in April 2025 are expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is raised. The domestic market is expected to follow the external market's trend after the holiday, but the upside is limited [13]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is suppressed by Brazil's good start of the sugar - crushing season and India's strong production forecast, while the domestic market has a good de - stocking rhythm. Traders are advised to go long with a light position near 5860 yuan, and add positions if the price breaks through 5910 yuan [13]. - **Corn**: The market is in a tug - of - war. Port inventories are high, suppressing price increases, but state purchases and reduced imports are improving market expectations. Short - term trading is recommended in the 2340 - 2390 yuan range [13]. - **Hogs**: The national hog price is stable. Group farms are holding back supplies, and there is a game between supply and demand. The terminal consumption is weak, and the futures market's main contract has shifted. Short - term operations are recommended [13][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is weakening. The inventory in production areas is increasing, and the southern sales areas are facing pressure. There are opportunities for short - selling on the futures market [15]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is rising. The daily production is high, and the inventory of upstream enterprises is accumulating. With the approaching of summer fertilizer demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The market is volatile and strengthening, and caution is advised for unilateral operations [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply of caustic soda is still in excess, although there are some new - capacity releases and demand changes. The price lacks upward momentum, and the 2509 contract may continue to trade at a low level [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market at ports is weakening after the holiday, and the second - round price increase of coke is on hold. The prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure, but may stabilize after the government's meeting [15]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum may continue to trade at a low level due to uncertainties in US tariff negotiations and the US economic downturn. Copper is relatively stronger due to support from the mining end [17]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is increasing. Although there are short - term production cuts, the supply is still excessive in the medium term. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - term [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased during the holiday. The market may get a short - term boost from the government's financial policies, but overall, they will trade in a low - level range [17]. - **Silicon Ferroalloys**: The prices of silicon ferroalloys are falling. Steel mills are expected to start new rounds of procurement with a price - cutting attitude. The prices of silicon ferroalloys may trade at a low level in the short term [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is falling, with a bearish supply - demand situation. The cost support is weakening, and short positions are recommended to be held, but beware of a rebound [18]. 2.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Indexes**: The A - share market had a good start on May 6. The market sentiment is positive, and there are opportunities for low - buying and combination arbitrage strategies [18][19]. - **Stock Index Options**: The A - share market rose on May 6, and the options market showed different trends in terms of volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors are advised to defend, and volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility decline [19].

中原期货研究所 中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（76）期 发布日期：2025-04-29 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 宏观要闻 1、我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励 企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加强就业公共服务等举措； 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括"一业一策""一企一策"加大支持力度、帮助出口企业规避 风险、扩大服务产品出海、鼓励外资企业境内再投资等；在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务 消费、强化失能老年人照护、推动汽车消费扩容、构建技能导向的薪酬分配制度等；在积极扩 大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金 融工具等；在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房 地产市场稳定态势、加大对实体经济的金融支持等。这些若干举措将成熟一项、出台一项。 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the A - share market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with daily trading volume remaining above one trillion. For index options, the overall strategy is to focus on defense or go long on volatility. Specifically, for index options, the trend strategy is to focus on defense, and the volatility strategy is to buy wide - straddle options after the decline in volatility to go long on volatility. For example, for the CSI 300 index, the weekly K - line showed three consecutive positives, but the Wednesday color K - line indicator remained green, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned red. For the CSI 1000 index, the daily line first rose and then declined, and the weekly line returned to the 120 - week moving average. For the SSE 50 index, it remained above the 850 - day moving average, and the daily three - color K - line indicator remained red [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 CSI 300 Index Options (IO) - Index performance: The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range oscillation. The weekly K - line showed three consecutive positives, but the Wednesday color K - line indicator remained green, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned red [10][12] - Option data: The 2505 contract of CSI 300 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options both at 3800, and the option pain point was also 3800. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased. The current - month IF futures contract was at a discount to the underlying, and the spot - futures basis narrowed, while the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract widened. The trading volume of IO options decreased, and the open interest increased. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the open - interest PCR increased [14][17][20] 3.2 CSI 1000 Index Options (MO) - Index performance: The CSI 1000 index's daily line first rose and then declined, and the weekly line returned to the 120 - week moving average. The Wednesday color K - line indicator remained green, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned red [38][41] - Option data: The 2505 contract of CSI 1000 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options at 6000 and 5800 respectively, and the option pain point was 5900. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased. The current - month IM futures contract was at a discount to the underlying, and the spot - futures basis narrowed, while the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract widened. The trading volume of MO options decreased, and the open interest increased. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the open - interest PCR increased [43][46][49] 3.3 SSE 50 Index Options (HO) - Index performance: The SSE 50 index remained above the 850 - day moving average. The weekly K - line closed in the negative, and the Wednesday color K - line indicator remained gray, while the daily three - color K - line indicator remained red [67][69] - Option data: The 2505 contract of SSE 50 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options at 2750 and 2650 respectively, and the option pain point was 2650. The implied volatility increased. The current - month IH futures contract was at a discount to the underlying, and the spot - futures basis narrowed, while the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract widened. The trading volume of HO options increased, and the open interest increased. Both the trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of options increased [71][73][77]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 需求暂未见明显改善，关注夏季肥补货节奏 ——尿素周报2025.04.28 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——需求暂未见明显改善，关注夏季肥补货节奏 | 品种 | 1. 供应：日产维持高位运行； | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2. 需求：阶段性需求支撑较弱； 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存持续累积； | | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格窄幅波动，尿素利润环比下降； | | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：5-9价差偏弱震荡，05基差走弱。 | | | 保供稳价政策、 | | | 6. 整体逻辑： | | UR2509合约关 | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | ...

Report Title - The market has returned to a weak state after the holiday stocking: Strategy Weekly Report 2025-04-28 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a state of oversupply, with low valuations in the short term. After the holiday stocking, the upside potential for spot prices is limited, and futures have started to reflect post-holiday expectations, with the market trending downward [3] Section Summaries Periodic and Spot Market Review - Egg futures: Last week, the futures market showed a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness. As the spot basis for near-term contracts converged, and long-term contracts reflected expectations, the market began to decline following the peak and fall of spot prices. However, considering that near-term contracts were at par with spot prices and closely followed the decline, while the basis for long-term contracts remained high, the market as a whole remained in a weak cycle compared to the same period. It will still take time to break out of the bottom range [6] - Egg spot: Last week, supported by stocking, spot prices rebounded significantly. However, as downstream sales slowed and inventories accumulated in production areas, spot prices firmly declined. Spot prices oscillated in the range of 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per jin. Currently, price increases are mainly passed on to downstream, but the market will return to weakness after the May Day stocking, and weather conditions will become the main factor suppressing spot prices [6] Supply Side - New capacity: From March to June 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2024 to January 2025, which generally remained at a high level, with the new volume higher than the historical average [10] - Elimination capacity: From March to June 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively moderate [10] - Laying hen inventory: The inventory has remained at a high level. The growth rate of normal new capacity has been relatively stable, and the elimination volume has been high, which may lead to a temporary slowdown in capacity supply [10] Elimination End - Elimination chickens: The price of elimination chickens has been oscillating at a high level, and the increase in egg prices has slowed down the elimination process. The elimination volume has significantly decreased, and the average elimination age is around 530 days, showing a continued downward trend from a high level [13] Seasonal and Market Factors - Seasonality: The seasonal strength has shifted, and the replenishment demand has gradually ended, transitioning to the traditional weather-driven trend [15] - Production area: Currently, inventories are accumulating in production areas, and downstream purchases are made on an as-needed basis. The southern weather is unfavorable for storage, and overall quality issues are affecting egg prices [15] - Consumption: After the holiday stocking, arrivals have increased [15] Substitute Products - Vegetables: Vegetable prices are weak, and as supply has recovered, the support for egg prices has weakened [17] - Pork: Pork prices have continued to decline, and the substitution effect on eggs is not significant [17] - Other meats: The prices of other meats have shown a staged increase [17] Cost and Profit - Raw materials: Corn and soybean meal prices have rebounded from low levels. Corn prices have been supported by policy-driven purchases, while soybean meal has remained stable with a slight upward trend due to short-term spot shortages [21] - Cost: Costs have been continuously rising. Currently, the feed cost is around 2.66 yuan per jin, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.96 yuan per jin [21] - Breeding profit: There has been a rebound, but the industry has not yet emerged from the seasonal low [21] Capital and Market Trends - Capital: This week, funds left the market after the rebound and then re-entered. Short-selling funds in the main contracts regained momentum [24] - Basis: The basis has declined from a high level, and spot prices have significantly dropped after the holiday. However, the basis is expected to stabilize and strengthen later, providing some support to the futures market [26] - Spread: The near-term strength and long-term weakness driven by stocking have ended, and the market has returned to a contango structure [29]