Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic situation is influenced by various factors, including government policies, corporate events, and international agreements. The report presents a comprehensive analysis of different sectors, such as agriculture, energy, industry, and finance, and provides investment suggestions based on the market conditions of each sector [6][7]. - Different sectors have different market trends and investment opportunities. For example, the agricultural sector may face supply - demand imbalances, while the energy and industrial sectors are affected by factors like production capacity, inventory, and geopolitical situations. The financial sector is influenced by market sentiment, policy expectations, and international trade relations [10][12][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On June 27, 2025, among chemical products, the prices of some products like coking coal, coke, and plastic increased, while others such as natural rubber, asphalt, and crude oil decreased. Some products like 20 - number rubber and ethylene glycol remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. The government is confident in minimizing the adverse impacts of external shocks and promoting sustainable economic development [6]. - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government will implement licensing management for digital asset trading and related services. It also plans to regularize the issuance of tokenized government bonds and promote diversified applications in multiple fields [6]. - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that China's economy continues to improve, and "Made in China" is accelerating the transformation to "Created in China" [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain number of compliance applications for EU rare - earth export licenses and will strengthen the approval work [6]. - Huawei, Microsoft, Xiaomi, and other companies have announced important business decisions, such as Huawei's cash subsidies for car purchases, Microsoft's negotiation deadlock with OpenAI, and Xiaomi's new car and AI glasses releases [7]. - The US Treasury has reached an agreement with G7 allies to exempt US companies from some taxes, and the Trump administration will remove the "899 retaliatory tax clause" from the tax - reform bill [7]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market: It shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range fluctuation. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [10]. - Oil market: The trading volume of oils decreased on June 26. There is a lack of market drivers, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - Sugar market: After the price repairs the basis, it may continue a technical rebound. Attention should be paid to the resistance level at 5800 yuan [10]. - Corn market: It is in a short - term balance range. It is recommended to wait and see, and short - sell lightly if the support level is broken [10]. - Pig market: The supply is relatively stable, and the futures contract is testing the 14000 pressure level [12]. - Egg market: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand. In the medium term, there are expectations of supply - demand transformation. The futures market is expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea market: The price has increased significantly. Supply may decrease at the end of the month. The market may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to export policies and agricultural demand [12]. - Caustic soda market: The fundamental situation lacks strong support. Although the price rebounded on Thursday, the upward space is not optimistic [12]. - Coking coal market: Affected by environmental protection, production has decreased. The downstream has replenished stocks slightly, and the market is oscillating and rebounding [14]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum market: Due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and improved macro - sentiment, the prices are running strongly [14]. - Alumina market: The fundamental situation is expected to remain relatively loose in the short term, and the price is expected to decline slightly [14]. - Steel market: The supply - demand structure of five major steel products has weakened, and the inventory has started to increase. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. - Ferroalloy market: The prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese have shown signs of stabilization. It is recommended that industrial hedging wait for the opportunity when the futures price is at or above the spot price [16]. - Lithium carbonate market: It shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price has broken through the previous low - level platform. It is recommended to wait and see, and go long lightly if the resistance level is effectively broken [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock index: After three consecutive days of sharp rises, the upward momentum slowed down on Thursday. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for IM and IC [16][17]. - Options: Trend investors can go long on the CSI 1000 and short on the SSE 50 for arbitrage. Volatility investors can hold long straddles to bet on increased volatility [17].

Report Overview - The report is the 114th issue of the Morning Meeting Minutes in 2025, released on June 26, 2025, by Zhongyuan Futures Research Institute [2]. 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic and political situation is complex, with international trade patterns changing, geopolitical conflicts affecting the market, and China's domestic policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting economic development [7][8]. - The commodity market shows different trends. Agricultural products are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating slightly; energy - chemical products have different price movements due to factors such as supply and demand changes and policy expectations; industrial metals are affected by factors such as inventory and demand, with prices mostly in a state of shock; the stock and option markets are also affected by various factors, and investors need to pay attention to market trends and policy changes [4][12][18]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On June 26, 2025, in the chemical industry, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, plastic, etc. rose, while crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, etc. fell. For example, natural rubber rose 135.0 to 13,905.00, with a rise - fall rate of 0.980%, and crude oil fell 3.80 to 504.80, with a rise - fall rate of - 0.747% [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **International**: Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and stated China's stance on economic globalization. US President Trump mentioned negotiations with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement and expressed his views on the Israel - Iran conflict. He also said that China can continue to buy oil from Iran and hopes China will also buy a large amount of oil from the US [7][8]. - **Domestic**: China is accelerating the construction of a unified national market, expanding domestic demand, and promoting innovation in various fields such as medicine and new energy vehicles. For example, the state is promoting the development of high - end equipment manufacturing, smart photovoltaics, etc., and the National Medical Products Administration is taking measures to speed up the approval of innovative drugs and medical devices [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory removal and poor downstream demand, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: On June 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased significantly. With the expected end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the oil market is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling is recommended [12]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is suppressed by Brazil's peak - season sugar pressing, while the domestic market has support from low inventory and the upcoming summer consumption season. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 5750 - 5800 range and pay attention to the support at 5700 [12]. - **Corn**: The market is in a state of mixed long and short factors. With factors such as the strong price - holding attitude of traders in the Northeast and the weakening demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply is relatively stable, and the futures market is affected by policy expectations and supply concerns. The main 09 contract is testing the pressure in the 13800 - 14000 range [14]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak. In the medium term, there are expectations of supply - demand transformation. The futures market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for long - entry opportunities [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly. With some enterprises planning to shut down for maintenance at the end of the month, supply is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to export policies and agricultural demand [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to continue to run at a low level due to the lack of strong fundamental support [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by factors such as safety inspections and environmental protection, the market sentiment has improved, but the overall demand is still weak, and the short - term trend is stable and volatile [14][16]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper inventory has decreased, and the price is under pressure at the 80,000 - yuan level. Aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose in the short term, and the price is expected to decline slightly and run at a low level in the medium term [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot market is in a wait - and - see state, with weak trading volume. Rebar inventory has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased slightly. Steel prices are under pressure but may fluctuate due to the improvement of the macro - environment [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have rebounded strongly, and the basis has narrowed rapidly. They are expected to follow the overall upward trend of commodities in the short term [16][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see, and if the price stabilizes above 61,000 yuan, a small - position long - entry can be considered [18]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen strongly, and the international stock market shows different trends. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the domestic market risk appetite has increased. Investors should pay attention to trading volume, the performance of the non - banking financial sector, and the formation of leading sectors [18][20]. - **Options**: For trend investors, it is recommended to go long on the CSI 1000 and short on the SSE 50 for arbitrage. For volatility investors, it is recommended to hold a long - straddle position to bet on increased volatility [21][23].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（113）期 发布日期：2025-06-25 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/25 | 2025/6/24 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 786.00 | 784.00 | 2.0 | 0.255 | | | 焦炭 | 1,357.00 | 1,351.50 | 5.50 | 0.407 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,765.00 | 13,665.00 | 100.0 | 0.732 | | | 20号胶 | 11,865.00 | 11,790.00 | 75.0 | 0.636 | | | 朝彩 | 7,258.00 | 7,250.00 | 8.0 | 0.110 | | | ...

Report Overview - This is the 112th issue of the morning meeting minutes from Zhongyuan Futures Research Institute, released on June 24, 2025, covering macro news, price changes of major varieties, and morning meeting views on main products [2]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the impact of macro events on the market, such as Iran's missile strike on a US military base leading to a significant drop in international oil prices and a rise in US stocks. It also presents views on various futures products including agricultural products, energy chemicals, industrial metals, and options finance, suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on market conditions [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Macro News - Iran launched a missile strike on a US military base in Qatar, with no US casualties reported. International oil prices dropped about 9%, and US stocks rose [5]. - The 12th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened, hearing research reports on topics like improving fertility support policies and promoting AI development [5]. - On Monday, the A - share market fluctuated upwards. Cross - border payment concept stocks soared, and oil and gas, shipping stocks strengthened due to the Middle East situation. Bank stocks rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to 3381.58 points [5]. - Nine ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan for the high - quality development of the gold industry from 2025 - 2027, aiming to increase gold resources by 5% - 10% and gold and silver production by over 5% [5]. - As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Solar and wind power generation capacities increased significantly [6]. - Many securities firms are researching stablecoins, and stablecoin concept stocks have been intensively investigated. The stablecoin industry is expected to develop in a compliant manner [6]. - Xiaomi Group will release new products on June 26, with the sales target of its new SUV challenging Tesla Model Y [6]. - Toyota will raise car prices in the US starting from July 1 [6]. - Apple is negotiating with the EU Commission on App Store rules and may make concessions [6]. - International asset management institutions are accelerating their layout in the Chinese market. As of June 23, foreign - funded public funds in China have established 26 new funds this year, with a fundraising scale of 32.401 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to last year [7]. 3.2 Price Changes of Main Varieties 3.2.1 Chemicals - On June 24, 2025, among chemical products, crude oil dropped the most, with a decline of 6.406% to 537.70 yuan, followed by asphalt, methanol, and fuel oil, with declines of 1.164%, 1.398%, and 1.30% respectively. Some products like coking coal, coke, 20 - number rubber, and glass rose slightly [3]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products - Among agricultural products, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and other products declined slightly, while white sugar rose 0.192% to 5732.00 yuan, and cotton No. 1 and cotton yarn also had small increases [3]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Products 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut: The spot market is stable but weak. The short - term futures market will likely continue to fluctuate weakly, waiting for new drivers [10]. - Edible Oils: On June 17, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 55%. With positive policies for biodiesel in the US and rising crude oil prices, the edible oil market is expected to be strong [10]. - White Sugar: On June 23, the futures price rose 0.46%. The supply pressure is significant, but domestic inventory pressure is limited and the summer consumption peak provides support. It is recommended to go long at low prices near the support level, while being vigilant against the risk of price drops due to imported sugar [10]. - Corn: On June 23, the futures price rose slightly. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to trade within the 2390 - 2430 yuan range, paying attention to new wheat listings and deep - processing profit recovery [10]. - Live Pigs: The current price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is relatively stable, and the futures market is affected by policy expectations and supply concerns. The main 09 contract is testing the 13800 - 14000 yuan pressure range [10]. - Eggs: The current price is stable, with some areas showing weakness. The futures market is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities [10]. 3.3.2 Energy Chemicals - Urea: The price continues to decline. Supply is expected to decrease in July, and the demand support is limited. The short - term futures market may fluctuate weakly [11]. - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to remain low due to lack of fundamental support [11]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is temporarily stable, and the iron - water daily output provides some support. However, the rebound height is expected to be limited [11]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper inventory decreased, and the price is under pressure at the 80,000 - yuan level. Aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [13]. - Alumina: The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the short term and remain low in the medium term [13]. - Steel Products: The production of rebar increased while demand decreased, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The production and demand of hot - rolled coils both increased, and the inventory decreased. The short - term steel price is supported, but the high - temperature and rainy season in the off - season still exerts pressure [13]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: The supply increased last week, and the demand is weak. With the impact of overseas situations, the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have rebounded to some extent [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices when the price rebounds to the pressure area [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: The short - term A - share market has stabilized and rebounded. It is recommended to control positions and buy index futures at low prices. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities for IM and IC when the market slumps [15]. - Stock Index Options: On June 23, A - share indexes rose, and most sectors increased. Different index futures and options showed different trends in terms of positions, trading volume, and basis. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options to bet on increased volatility [16].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 地缘冲突升级 风险偏好降低 ——股指周报2025.06.23 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作上，随着5 | | | | 1、券商中国，随着美联储维持利率不变，全球市场进入新一轮观望期。多家外资机构 | 月经济数据的披 | | | | 表示，通胀走势、贸易政策与地缘政治的不确定性，正深刻影响市场预期。在全球经济 | 露，市场对于基 | | | | 面临多重扰动的背景下，美联储选择"按兵不动"，但这并未完全减弱市场波动，投资机 | 本面或存在一定 | | | | 构对未来资产价格的再评估与区域配置的调整意愿依然强烈。券商中国记者注意到，从 | 的分歧，叠加目 | | | | 资产类别到区域配置，外资的战略重心正在发生微妙变化。相较于对美国市场的谨慎态 | 前海外地缘局势 | | | | 度，欧洲、日本与新兴市场正逐步获得更高的权重。 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 天气压制现货反弹，盘面重回区间震荡 ——鸡蛋周报2025-06-23 作 者：刘四奎 执业证书编号：F3033884 交易咨询编号：Z0011291 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 分析师微信 公司官方微信 期货回顾 2440 3589 3172 3189 3312 2953 2701 2936 3618 3662 3382 3420 3553 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 鸡蛋期现货市场分布（元/500kg） -1149 -732 -749 -872 -513 -261 -496 -1178 -1222 -942 -980 -1113 -1400 -1200 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 基差 基差 • 期货： 鸡蛋期货上周整体表现强劲，突破上涨 为主，继续升水现货，现货企稳上涨带来 的情绪远远大于实际的支撑。后续现货依 旧受制于天气和阶段供需压力，但是期货 开始开启了周期转换，阶段性的筑底成功。 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro - geopolitical situation boosts energy prices, providing support. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. However, the demand for rebar in the off - season is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the next two weeks. Hot - rolled coil demand shows some resilience, and its inventory turns from increasing to decreasing. Steel prices still face the pressure of short - term supply - demand weakening, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil rebounds, and the arrival volume increases. Currently, steel mills' profits are good, and the daily output of molten iron increases. But as the off - season deepens, the terminal demand weakens, and the supply increment may be greater than the demand increment. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For coking coal and coke, as some previously减产 mines resume production, the production of coking coal increases slightly. The fourth round of price cuts for coke starts, and the daily output of molten iron increases, giving some support to coking coal and coke. The prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Geopolitical situations disturb the market, and steel prices oscillate at a low level. The energy price increase provides support for commodities. The industry continues to reduce inventory, with rebar inventory reduction slowing down and hot - rolled coil inventory turning from increasing to decreasing. Market transactions are concentrated in the low - price area [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output is 212.18 tons (up 2.22% month - on - month, down 7.96% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output is 325.45 tons (up 0.25% month - on - month, up 1.47% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increases while electric furnace output decreases [16][18][23]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate is 83.82% (up 0.49% month - on - month, up 2.16% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate is 70.93% (down 4.16% month - on - month, up 0.75% year - on - year) [28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is + 155 yuan/ton (up 14.81% week - on - week, up 59.79% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is + 100 yuan/ton (up 66.67% week - on - week, up 4.17% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 219.19 tons (down 0.35% month - on - month, down 7.04% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 330.69 tons (up 3.38% month - on - month, up 3.68% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 551.07 tons (down 1.26% month - on - month, down 28.95% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 340.17 tons (down 1.52% month - on - month, down 18.15% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: Real estate sales volume increases slightly at a low level, and land market transactions decrease month - on - month. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 3009.8 tons (up 8.81% month - on - month, up 6.25% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2562.7 tons (up 7.47% month - on - month, up 3.63% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron is 242.18 tons (up 0.57 tons month - on - month, up 2.24 tons year - on - year), and the port dredging volume is 313.56 tons (up 4.09% month - on - month, up 3.21% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports is 13894.16 tons (down 0.28% month - on - month, down 6.92% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 8936.24 tons (up 1.56% month - on - month, down 3.02% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines is 84.49% (up 0.93% month - on - month, down 3.41% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants is 61.34% (up 6.94% month - on - month, down 7.86% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 9.52 tons (down 12.31% month - on - month, down 38.27% year - on - year) [77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is - 23 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate is 73.42% (down 0.73% month - on - month, up 0.12% year - on - year) [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Independent coking plant coking coal inventory is 665.62 tons (down 0.55% month - on - month, down 10.82% year - on - year), steel mill coking coal inventory is 774.45 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, up 2.37% year - on - year), and coking coal port inventory is 303.31 tons (down 2.79% month - on - month, up 29.34% year - on - year) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Independent coking plant coke inventory is 80.93 tons (down 7.31% month - on - month, up 126.38% year - on - year), steel mill coke inventory is 634.2 tons (down 1.34% month - on - month, up 14.04% year - on - year), and coke port inventory is 203.11 tons (unchanged month - on - month, down 0.12% year - on - year) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi is 1170 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1030 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 720 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil shrinks, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil widens slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke shrinks, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens slightly [105][111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic data in May still showed resilience, and the Fed continued to pause rate cuts in its June meeting. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and changes in US tariff policies. In the supply - demand aspect, the quantity of low - concentration caustic soda delivered to major downstream industries in Shandong Province is expected to remain high this week, with non - aluminum downstream industries and traders resistant to high prices. There are both newly - added maintenance enterprises and downstream enterprises in the province, which is expected to have limited impact on the market. After the new alumina production capacity is put into operation, the demand has increased. The market has an expectation of continued price cuts, but the expectation is not too bad. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the liquid caustic soda market has changed little, lacking new support, and the caustic soda 2509 contract may continue to operate at a low level. The upper reference pressure level is 2,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has declined, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has converged. The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, 98% flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and alumina in Shandong have all decreased to varying degrees, with the price of liquid chlorine dropping by 98%. The prices of raw salt and viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures contracts compared with those of soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipt quantity [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In the week from June 13 - 19, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, while those in the Northwest and East China increased their loads after equipment maintenance. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate in North China will slightly increase to about 81.8% this week, with a weekly output of about 798,600 tons [20]. - **Downstream (Alumina)**: The supply of alumina has decreased. An alumina enterprise in the southern region reduced its production capacity due to ore issues, slightly intensifying the tight supply situation in the south. As of June 19, the built - in production capacity of Chinese alumina was 112.4 million tons, the operating production capacity was 87.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 77.89% [26]. - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 366,500 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest increased month - on - month, while those in North China, East China, and South China decreased [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of June 20, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong first decreased and then increased, with an average weekly price of 1 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 78.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. It is expected to further decline to 77.02% this week. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 501 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.27% [35][36].

Report Title - The report is titled "Commodity Atmosphere Warms Up, Alloy Center of Gravity Lifts - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20250623" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views Silicon Ferrosilicon - Last week, both supply and demand of silicon ferrosilicon increased, and the futures price center of gravity slightly lifted. With overseas situation disturbances, the overall commodity trend repaired, and the black series including alloys showed short - term stabilization signs. The previous large discount of the silicon ferrosilicon futures has ended, and it followed the overall commodity to lift its low - level center of gravity. The price has initially entered the rebound target range. Industrial hedging can wait for the futures to reach par to premium opportunities [4] Manganese Ferrosilicon - Last week, the manganese ferrosilicon futures price repeatedly rose and then fell. Fundamentally, both supply and demand increased, and enterprises continued to accumulate inventory. Manganese ore quotes rose following the futures. Although the short - term driving force is not obvious, the overall manganese ore inventory is low. With the high operating rate of silicon - manganese plants, the ore price has been firm recently, and the cost - side support has strengthened [23] Summary by Section Silicon Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises was 9.79 tons (a 2.9% increase from the previous week and a 14.4% decrease year - on - year). The output in May 2025 was 41.48 tons (a 5.76% decrease from the previous month and a 7.45% decrease year - on - year) [6] Demand - The consumption of silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 1.99 tons (a 1.8% increase from the previous week and a 5.2% decrease year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 868.51 tons (a 1.12% increase from the previous week and a 2.58% decrease year - on - year) [9] Inventory - Enterprise inventory (bi - weekly data) was 6.8 tons (a 2.7% decrease from the previous period and a 31.6% increase year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.38 days (an increase of 0.18 days from the previous month and an increase of 0.83 days year - on - year) [11] Cost - The prices of main and auxiliary materials remained stable during the week. For example, the electricity price in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, and the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu also remained stable. The cost of silicon ferrosilicon in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, while the profit increased [15] Basis - The futures price rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The number of silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 12,535 (a decrease of 2,693 from the previous week and a decrease of 83 year - on - year). The basis of the 09 contract was 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - No specific data summary is provided in the text, but relevant charts show the trends of contract positions and precipitated funds over time [20] Manganese Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 17.6 tons (a 1.8% increase from the previous week and an 18.1% decrease year - on - year). The national silicon - manganese output in May was 74.3 tons (a 7.8% decrease from the previous month and a 7.8% decrease year - on - year) [25] Demand - The weekly consumption of silicon - manganese was 12.3 tons (a 1.2% increase from the previous week and a 4.3% decrease year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 868.51 tons (a 1.12% increase from the previous week and a 2.58% decrease year - on - year) [28] Inventory - Enterprise sample inventory (bi - weekly data) was 20.59 tons (a 5.1% increase from the previous period and a 208% increase year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.49 days (an increase of 0.34 days from the previous month and an increase of 0.42 days year - on - year). The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly last week [31] Cost - The futures price stop - falling drove an increase in manganese ore inquiries, but downstream still mostly waited and watched. The prices of some raw materials such as electricity and semi - coke remained stable, while the prices of some manganese ores changed slightly. The cost of silicon - manganese in different regions decreased slightly, and the profit increased [38] Basis - The futures price was still at a discount. The number of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts was 94,951 (a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week and a decrease of 17,547 year - on - year). The 09 basis was 234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 from the previous week [33] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - No specific data summary is provided in the text, but relevant charts show the trends of contract positions and precipitated funds over time [40]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 下游追涨情绪谨慎，尿素价格再度转弱 ——尿素周报2025.06.23 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——下游追涨情绪谨慎，尿素价格再度转弱 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1. 供应：部分装置存检修计划，供应预计将有所减量； | | | | | 2. 需求：农需部分跟进，出口需求逐步释放； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存压力有所缓解； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格弱稳运行，尿素利润环比增加； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏强运行，09基差走强。 | | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | | 6. 整体逻辑： | 短期盘面 ...