Report Title - Macro atmosphere rebounds, steel prices rebound from lows - Weekly Report 20250512 [1] Core Views - The implementation of the "package of financial policies" by the State Council Information Office and the substantial progress in the China - US talks have boosted market confidence, and the macro atmosphere has improved. After the holiday, affected by factors, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased. It is expected that the demand will improve on a low - base basis in the week after the holiday, and steel prices will be supported at low levels and show a phased rebound [3]. - The supply of iron ore shows a phased contraction, and the iron ore supply - demand structure has improved, which, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere, leads to a phased rebound of the black series after over - decline. The main iron ore contract should pay attention to the pressure around 730 - 750 [4]. - After the holiday, the overall supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and the online auction turnover rate is still low. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, but the second - round price increase of coke has been shelved. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, it is stable in the short - term at low levels and should be treated with an oscillatory view [5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - After the holiday, with the implementation of macro - policy expectations, the market returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. Affected by the holiday, the demand for the five major steel products declined significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, the market pessimism rose, the futures prices fell significantly, the spot prices decreased synchronously, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 223.53 tons (down 4.22% month - on - month and 3.07% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 320.38 tons (up 0.34% month - on - month and down 1.46% year - on - year). The production of both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar decreased [15][17][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast - furnace operating rate remained stable at 84.62% (up 0.34 month - on - month and 4.99% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate slightly decreased to 72.73% (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 13.32% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils shrank month - on - month. The rebar profit was + 90 yuan/ton (down 29.69% week - on - week and 24.37% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil profit was + 30 yuan/ton (down 39.47 week - on - week and 58.93% year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 213.9 tons (down 26.67% month - on - month and 26.32% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 309.53 tons (down 6.97% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year). The demand for rebar declined significantly, and the demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 653.63 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year), with the factory inventory increasing and the social inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 365.12 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and down 13.37% year - on - year), with the factory inventory slightly decreasing and the social inventory increasing [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 18.97% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 12.36% month - on - month and 58.37% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% [46][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 97.82 (up 0.64% month - on - month and down 15.95% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2422.5 tons (down 4.64% month - on - month and 0.95% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2354.6 tons (down 3.88% month - on - month and up 9.70% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily pig - iron output was 245.64 tons (up 0.22 tons month - on - month and 6.39 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.21 tons (down 5.01% month - on - month and up 5.95% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.48 days (down 3.94% month - on - month and 9.60% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 14238.71 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and 3.83% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8958.98 tons (down 4.03% month - on - month and 3.91% year - on - year) [66][71]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 89.92% (up 0.20% month - on - month and 3.26% year - on - year), the coal - washing plant operating rate was 62.42% (down 0.87% month - on - month and 2.62% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 13.37 tons (up 63.10% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [73][77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was + 1 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month and 62 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.05% (down 0.50% month - on - month and up 4.29% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 775.13 tons (down 4.33% month - on - month and up 7.69% year - on - year), the steel - mill coking coal inventory was 787.41 tons (up 0.36 month - on - month and 6.33% year - on - year), and the port coking coal inventory was 297.81 tons (down 4.48% month - on - month and up 30.91% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 65.09 tons (down 2.94% month - on - month and up 43.53% year - on - year), the steel - mill coke inventory was 671.03 tons (down 0.62% month - on - month and up 20.53% year - on - year), and the port coke inventory was 229.08 tons (down 3.80% month - on - month and up 2.97% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week and 780 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 700 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][103]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread also widened. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread widened in the short - term [105][110]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 碳酸锂市场加速下行，基差扩大叠加库存压 力 --碳酸锂周报2025-05-09 作 者：刘培洋 研 究 助 理 ：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 联 系 方 式：0371-58620083 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂周跌1.72%至65700元/吨，工业级跌1.77%，基差周 | 短期价格或测试 | | | | 60000元/吨整数 | | | 环比激增88.73%至2680元/吨，现货升水结构强化。 | 关口，关注江西 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约暴跌3.43%至63020元/吨，持仓量逆势增13.27%，波动率 | | | | | 云母提锂成本支 | | | 929显示空头主导。 | | | | 【供应方面】：4月全国产量环比降14.81%，江西锂云母路线同比大增97.06%，青 | 撑力度。 | | | | 风险提示： | | | 海盐湖产量环比增8.33%。 | 1.仓单注 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（83）期 发布日期：2025-05-13 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/5/13 | 2025/5/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 872.00 | 889.50 | -17.50 | -1.967 | | | 焦炭 | 1,456.50 | 1.471.50 | -15.0 | -1.019 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,000.00 | 15,025.00 | -25.0 | -0.166 | | | 20号胶 | 12,795.00 | 12,820.00 | -25.0 | -0.195 | | | 塑料 | 7,127.00 | 7,090.00 | 3 ...

晨会纪要 中原期货研究所 2025 第（82）期 发布日期：2025-05-12 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/9 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 869.00 | 877.50 | -8.50 | -0.969 | | | 焦炭 | 1,441.00 | 1,446.50 | -5.50 | -0.380 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,560.00 | 14,620.00 | -60.0 | -0.410 | | | 20号胶 | 12,310.00 | 12,415.00 | -105.0 | -0.846 | | | 塑料 | 6,960.00 | 6,976.00 | -1 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（81）期 发布日期：2025-05-09 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/5/9 | 2025/5/8 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 882.00 | 894.00 | -12.0 | -1.342 | | | 焦炭 | 1,464.00 | 1,478.00 | -14.0 | -0.947 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,705.00 | 14,710.00 | -5.0 | -0.034 | | | 20号胶 | 12,560.00 | 12,535.00 | 25.0 | 0.199 | | | 塑料 | 7,022.00 | 7,016.00 | 6.0 | 0 ...

中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/5/7 | 2025/5/6 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 914.00 | 911.50 | 2.50 | 0.274 | | | 焦炭 | 1,515.00 | 1,502.00 | 13.0 | 0.866 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,910.00 | 14,815.00 | 95.0 | 0.641 | | | 20号胶 | 12,610.00 | 12,555.00 | 55.0 | 0.438 | | | 塑料 | 7,041.00 | 6,987.00 | 54.0 | 0.773 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,027.00 | 6,995.00 | 32.0 | 0.457 | | | (PTA) | 4,450.00 | 4,362.00 | 88.0 | 2.017 | | | PVC | 4,910.00 | 4,854.00 | 56.0 | 1.154 | | | 沥青 | 3,42 ...

中原期货研究所 中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（76）期 发布日期：2025-04-29 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 宏观要闻 1、我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励 企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加强就业公共服务等举措； 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括"一业一策""一企一策"加大支持力度、帮助出口企业规避 风险、扩大服务产品出海、鼓励外资企业境内再投资等；在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务 消费、强化失能老年人照护、推动汽车消费扩容、构建技能导向的薪酬分配制度等；在积极扩 大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金 融工具等；在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房 地产市场稳定态势、加大对实体经济的金融支持等。这些若干举措将成熟一项、出台一项。 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the A - share market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with daily trading volume remaining above one trillion. For index options, the overall strategy is to focus on defense or go long on volatility. Specifically, for index options, the trend strategy is to focus on defense, and the volatility strategy is to buy wide - straddle options after the decline in volatility to go long on volatility. For example, for the CSI 300 index, the weekly K - line showed three consecutive positives, but the Wednesday color K - line indicator remained green, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned red. For the CSI 1000 index, the daily line first rose and then declined, and the weekly line returned to the 120 - week moving average. For the SSE 50 index, it remained above the 850 - day moving average, and the daily three - color K - line indicator remained red [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 CSI 300 Index Options (IO) - Index performance: The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range oscillation. The weekly K - line showed three consecutive positives, but the Wednesday color K - line indicator remained green, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned red [10][12] - Option data: The 2505 contract of CSI 300 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options both at 3800, and the option pain point was also 3800. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased. The current - month IF futures contract was at a discount to the underlying, and the spot - futures basis narrowed, while the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract widened. The trading volume of IO options decreased, and the open interest increased. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the open - interest PCR increased [14][17][20] 3.2 CSI 1000 Index Options (MO) - Index performance: The CSI 1000 index's daily line first rose and then declined, and the weekly line returned to the 120 - week moving average. The Wednesday color K - line indicator remained green, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned red [38][41] - Option data: The 2505 contract of CSI 1000 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options at 6000 and 5800 respectively, and the option pain point was 5900. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased. The current - month IM futures contract was at a discount to the underlying, and the spot - futures basis narrowed, while the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract widened. The trading volume of MO options decreased, and the open interest increased. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the open - interest PCR increased [43][46][49] 3.3 SSE 50 Index Options (HO) - Index performance: The SSE 50 index remained above the 850 - day moving average. The weekly K - line closed in the negative, and the Wednesday color K - line indicator remained gray, while the daily three - color K - line indicator remained red [67][69] - Option data: The 2505 contract of SSE 50 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options at 2750 and 2650 respectively, and the option pain point was 2650. The implied volatility increased. The current - month IH futures contract was at a discount to the underlying, and the spot - futures basis narrowed, while the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract widened. The trading volume of HO options increased, and the open interest increased. Both the trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of options increased [71][73][77]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 需求暂未见明显改善，关注夏季肥补货节奏 ——尿素周报2025.04.28 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——需求暂未见明显改善，关注夏季肥补货节奏 | 品种 | 1. 供应：日产维持高位运行； | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2. 需求：阶段性需求支撑较弱； 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存持续累积； | | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格窄幅波动，尿素利润环比下降； | | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：5-9价差偏弱震荡，05基差走弱。 | | | 保供稳价政策、 | | | 6. 整体逻辑： | | UR2509合约关 | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 假期备货结束，市场重回弱势 ——策略周报2025-04-28 作 者：刘四奎 执业证书编号：F3033884 交易咨询编号：Z0011291 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 分析师微信 公司官方微信 本周观点 期现货回顾 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 【供应方面】：现阶段，新增产能不断释放，淘汰和 换羽同步进行，整体供应相对平稳，上游库存不高， | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 下游库存偏低，整体供应压力未能集中释放，等待天 气原因带来的供应增加。 【需求方面】：需求上，五一备货结束后，市场进入 | | | | | 疲软状态，南方温湿天气逐渐影响蛋品质量，节后存 | | | | | 在补库需求，但是整体支撑有限，毕竟供需影响偏大。 | 1、反弹后的做空。 | 1、上游库存消化情况 | | 鸡蛋 | 【成本利润】：原材料价格震荡走强，成本企稳反弹， | 2、继续JD59反套。 | 2、假期消费提振情况 | | | 截止上周，饲料成本2.66元/斤左右，综合养殖成本 | | 3、下游节后补库情况。 | | ...