1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a weak state. Supply pressure is increasing due to the release of new production capacity and slow elimination of backward capacity, while demand is limited after the Dragon Boat Festival. The cost of feed is around 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty. The breeding profit is at a seasonal low. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds and mainly conduct JD reverse spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Review - The egg futures market shows a positive market structure, with the near - month contracts following the decline of the spot market and the far - month contracts oscillating weakly. The market is still in a weak state, and although there are bottom - fishing behaviors in the market, they are ineffective. The market maintains a structure of near - weak and far - strong [6]. 3.2 Spot Review - Last week, the egg spot market was generally stable, but there was an adjustment over the weekend, mainly led by the decline in northern sales areas. The production areas were relatively stable, while the egg prices in southern production areas, especially those near the plum - rain area, continued to decline. After the festival, the pulling effect of the sales areas on the spot market is expected to be weak, and the spot price will continue to search for a bottom [13]. 3.3 Supply - **New production capacity**: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, which is basically at a high level, and the new volume is higher than the historical average [18]. - **Elimination of production capacity**: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination of production capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [18]. - **Laying hen inventory**: The inventory of laying hens remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new production capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination is delayed, which may lead to an increase in phased supply [18]. 3.4 Elimination End - The elimination of backward production capacity has started but has not entered an accelerated phase. The price of eliminated chickens has fallen from a high level, the elimination volume has been increasing but is still at a four - year low, and the elimination age is around 520 days, showing an obvious downward trend [21]. 3.5 Other Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Seasonality**: The market is in a transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and a certain turnaround is expected to occur in mid - June [25]. - **Production area**: Currently, producers in the production areas are actively selling. With the increasing high - temperature weather, new chickens are constantly starting to lay eggs [25]. - **Consumption end**: The stocking is over, the overall demand is average, and the weather factor suppresses the egg price [25]. - **Substitute products**: Vegetable prices are about to enter a seasonally strong stage, which will support the egg price to some extent. Pork prices continue to weaken, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have shown a phased increase [27]. 3.6 Cost & Profit - **Cost end**: The price of corn is running at a high level, and the spot price of soybean meal is stable with a slight decline. The overall cost has oscillated and slightly decreased. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty [30]. - **Breeding profit**: The breeding profit has fallen below the feed cost and reached the comprehensive breeding cost. The seasonal weakness has not ended. The negative feedback of production capacity caused by profit losses is gradually taking effect, and attention should be paid to the elimination of backward production capacity [31]. 3.7 Capital and Basis - **Capital**: Short - term funds continue to operate at a high level without signs of leaving the market, and short - selling funds have obvious suppression [34]. - **Basis**: The basis is running at a low level. Currently, the overall contract shows a premium structure, which will continue to suppress the market in the short term. The basis has a strengthening trend in the later stage, which depends on when the spot price stabilizes [36]. 3.8 Spread - The decline of the spot price suppresses the near - month contracts, and the strategy is mainly to conduct reverse spreads in the phased period [39].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.06.09 中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供应压力回升 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.76%（+2.19%），氨碱法75.65%（环比+4.24%），联碱法80.41%（+3.87%)；周 产量70.41万吨（+1.91万吨），轻碱产量32.18万吨（+0.66万吨），重碱产量38.22万吨（+1.25 万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需70.14万吨（-3.61万吨），轻碱表需35.01万吨（+2.30万吨），重碱表需35.12万吨 （-5.65万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存162.70万吨（+0.27万吨），轻碱库存79万吨（-2.83万吨），重碱库存 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 宏观氛围转暖 低位有所止跌 ——铁合金周报20250609 投 资 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0016415 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：端午归来宁夏部分厂家复产，产量低位迅速回升。 需求：铁水产量见顶，成材进入淡季对合金需求转弱。 | | | | | 库存：钢厂库存回落，厂家库存止降回升。 | | 需求不及 | | | 成本：青海宁夏周度电费小降1分，成本重心继续回落。 | 短期观望或 | 预期/供 | | 硅铁 | | 反弹偏空。 | 应减产超 | | | 基差：盘面贴水幅度较大。 | | 预期 | | | 总结：上周硅铁供增需弱，受商品反弹氛围提振价格止跌。前期供应快速收缩带 | | | | | 动平衡表缺口不断扩大，近两周显性库存消化下降较快，但降库之后企业开工意 | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 ——尿素周报2025.06.09 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1. 供应：装置检修变化有限，日产维持高位运行； | | | | | 2. 需求：夏季肥逐步进入收尾阶段； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业延续累库，港口库存变化有限； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格弱稳运行，尿素利润环比增加； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏弱运行，09基差走强。 | 短期尿素期价延 | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | | 6. 整体逻辑： | 续偏弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 关税扰动多变，铜铝缺乏方向 ——铜铝周报2025.06.09 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：中美贸易谈判释放利多信号，美国最新非农数据好于预 | 沪铜2507合约 | | | | 期，市场降息预期下降。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：国内5月电解铜产量超预期增加，但预计从6月开始受检 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | | 修计划影响持续下降。受美国关税政策影响，LME去库延续，全球库 | | | | 铜 | 存继续转移至美国市场，结构性紧张或支撑铜价。 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜矿紧张预期和美国对铜征收关税预期继续支持铜价， | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | | 76000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macro aspect shows that the Sino-US trade negotiations have released positive signals, and their progress should be monitored. In terms of supply and demand, there were many device overhauls in the caustic soda market at the beginning of June. The liquid caustic soda markets in Shandong and East China were both driven by "supply contraction", and the spot quotes were firm. However, the overall scale of overhauls in June was smaller than that of the previous month, and there was still pressure from new production capacity, which suppressed the market. During the week, the terminal demand showed differentiation. The main downstream in Shandong could support the price, but the non-aluminum market resisted high prices, and terminal procurement was inactive. Overall, the supply and demand situation in the liquid caustic soda market has changed little and lacks support. After the caustic soda 2509 contract broke through the lower limit, it should be treated with a bearish mindset. The upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2509 contract is around 2,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is around 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The 32% liquid caustic soda basis in Shandong widened. From May 30 to June 5, 2025, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained at 880 yuan, the price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda decreased by 10 yuan to 1,410 yuan with a decline of -0.7%, and the price of 99% caustic soda flakes remained at 3,350 yuan. The price of light soda ash decreased by 50 yuan to 1,350 yuan with a decline of -3.57%, the price of alumina increased by 5 yuan to 3,275 yuan with an increase of 0.15%, the price of pulp decreased by 50 yuan to 6,150 yuan with a decline of -0.81%, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 600 yuan to 69,000 yuan with a decline of -0.86%, while the prices of sea salt, viscose staple fiber, and ternary precursor remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: Relevant data on the closing prices of the active contracts of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the number of warehouse receipts are presented [16]. 02 Market Analysis - **Supply Side - Production and Operating Rate**: From May 30 to June 5, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%. The completion of device overhauls in the Northwest and Central China drove up the load, while new device overhauls and production cuts in North China and South China led to a decline in the load. The load in the Northwest increased by 2.2% to 90.5%, and in Central China, it increased by 6.2% to 90.2%. In North China, the load decreased by 3.7% to 77.1%, and in South China, it decreased by 4.6% to 83.1%. The load in Shandong decreased by 3.3% to 86.4%. It is estimated that the caustic soda capacity utilization rate this week will be around 83.1%, and the weekly output will be around 800,600 tons. Multiple enterprises in North China and South China had device overhauls during the reporting period [20][23]. - **Downstream - Alumina**: The profit margin of alumina has widened, increasing the production willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises completed their overhauls during the reporting period and resumed normal production. As of June 5, the built capacity of alumina in China was 112.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 77.00% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of June 5, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 382,100 wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of -2.67% and a year-on-year increase of 5.52%. The capacity utilization ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 23.22%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06%. The capacity utilization ratios in the Northwest, North China, and East China decreased month-on-month, while those in Central China, Northeast China, South China, and Southwest China increased month-on-month. In North China, after continuous price increases in the Shandong market, high-price non-aluminum purchases decreased. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and due to factors such as inventory accumulation in overhauled devices, some areas experienced a slight increase in inventory. However, most enterprises cleared their inventories at the end of the month, driving down the inventory in North China. In East China, the regional supply decreased, non-aluminum industries replenished their inventories at the end and beginning of the month, and the export orders were shipped as needed, resulting in a decline in inventory [30]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of June 5, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 1 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 101%. A chlor-alkali enterprise in Zibo, Shandong entered overhaul during the week, reducing the market supply and driving up the price of liquid chlorine in the surrounding areas. However, the chlorine-consuming downstream devices in Liaocheng, Shandong were unstable during the week, and some production enterprises reduced their loads to promote sales. As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 80.72%, a month-on-month increase of 2.53% and a year-on-year increase of 5.56%. Among them, the utilization rate of the calcium carbide method was 82.31%, a month-on-month increase of 4.10% and a year-on-year increase of 8.49%; the utilization rate of the ethylene method was 76.53%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.59% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.56%. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises was 635 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 28.28% [34][35].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（101）期 发布日期：2025-06-09 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/8 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 778.00 | 757.00 | 21.0 | 2.774 | | | 焦炭 | 1,336.00 | 1,342.00 | -6.0 | -0.447 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,605.00 | 13,545.00 | 60.0 | 0.443 | | | 20号胶 | 11,970.00 | 11,965.00 | 5.0 | 0.042 | | | 塑料 | 7,078.00 | 7,034.00 | 44.0 | 0.62 ...

公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（99）期 发布日期：2025-06-05 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/4 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 757.00 | 768.00 | -11.0 | -1.432 | | | 焦炭 | 1,342.50 | 1,367.50 | -25.0 | -1.828 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,530.00 | 13,655.00 | -125.0 | -0.915 | | | 20号胶 | 11,830.00 | 12,020.00 | -190.0 | -1.581 | | | 朝彩 | 7,026.00 | 7,049.00 | -2 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Tariff Increase, Steel Prices Under Pressure - Weekly Report 20250603 [1] - Researcher: Lin Na [2] - Contact Information: Email: linna_qh@ccnew.com; Phone: 0371 - 58620083 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is facing downward pressure due to the increase in import steel tariffs and the approaching of the off - season. Steel prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term. Iron ore, coking coal, and coke are also expected to show weak trends due to supply - demand imbalances [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Steel prices have continuously declined due to the intensification of overseas risk disturbances and the approaching of the off - season. Futures prices have dropped significantly, and the basis has widened [9]. - Spot prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke have all decreased. The long - and short - position holdings of futures contracts have changed, and inventory has generally decreased [9]. 02. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis Production - National weekly production of rebar decreased by 2.58% week - on - week to 225.51 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 4.54% week - on - week to 319.55 million tons [15][17]. - Rebar production from blast furnaces and electric furnaces both decreased, with blast furnace production at 200.12 million tons (down 1.22% week - on - week) and electric furnace production at 25.39 million tons (down 12.08% week - on - week) [22]. Operating Rate - The blast furnace operating rate remained stable at 83.87% (up 0.22% week - on - week), and the electric furnace operating rate increased to 77.78% (up 0.78% week - on - week) [27]. Profit - Rebar profit slightly increased to +90 yuan/ton (up 2.27% week - on - week), while hot - rolled coil profit decreased to +33 yuan/ton (down 17.5% week - on - week) [31]. Demand - Rebar apparent consumption increased by 0.63% week - on - week to 248.68 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased by 4.43% week - on - week to 326.93 million tons [36]. Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.83% week - on - week to 581.05 million tons, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 2.17% week - on - week to 332.81 million tons, with both factory and social inventories decreasing [40][45]. Downstream Industries - In the real estate market, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.12% week - on - week, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.97% week - on - week [48]. - In April 2025, automobile production and sales decreased by 12.9% and 11.2% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 8.9% and 9.8% year - on - year respectively [51]. 03. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 3.72% week - on - week to 2830.6 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 17.91% week - on - week to 2536.5 million tons [58]. Demand - Daily hot metal production decreased by 1.69 million tons week - on - week to 241.91 million tons, and the port clearance volume of iron ore decreased by 0.13% week - on - week to 326.68 million tons [63]. Inventory - Iron ore inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 13866.58 million tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 1.92% week - on - week to 8754.33 million tons [69]. 04. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased by 0.94% week - on - week to 85.49%, and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 29.10% week - on - week to 14.97 million tons [75]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants decreased by 24 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 39 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.28% week - on - week to 75.66% [83]. Demand - The daily hot metal production was 241.91 million tons (down 1.69 million tons week - on - week) [5]. Inventory - Coking coal inventory in independent coking plants decreased by 2.88% week - on - week to 716.64 million tons, and coking coal inventory in ports increased by 0.51% week - on - week to 303.09 million tons [89]. - Coke inventory in independent coking plants increased by 7.15% week - on - week to 78.33 million tons, and coke inventory in ports decreased by 2.65% week - on - week to 217.18 million tons [95]. Spot Price - Coking coal prices showed a weak trend, and the second - round price reduction of coke was implemented [96]. 05. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has widened, and the spread between the 10 - 01 contracts of rebar has widened [103]. - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore has slightly widened, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has slightly narrowed [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents macro news, price changes of various futures contracts, and morning meeting views on major varieties, offering a comprehensive analysis of the market situation across multiple industries [4][7][13]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry Futures - On June 4, 2025, among chemical futures, most contracts showed price increases. For example, the price of coking coal rose by 19.50 to 738.50, with a growth rate of 2.712%; the price of coke increased by 21.0 to 1,320.00, a growth of 1.617%. However, some contracts declined, such as 20 - number rubber, which dropped by 30.0 to 11,780.00, a decrease of 0.254% [4]. 2. Agricultural Product Futures - In the agricultural product futures market, prices also showed mixed trends. For instance, the price of No. 1 yellow soybean decreased by 12.0 to 4,122.00, a decline of 0.290%, while the price of No. 2 yellow soybean rose by 20.0 to 3,556.00, an increase of 0.566% [4]. 3. Macro News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, but China firmly opposed this and demanded the US to correct its actions [7]. - US President Trump announced an increase in the import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from June 4, 2025 [7]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with a Japanese delegation, emphasizing the need to strengthen Sino - Japanese industrial cooperation [7]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held talks with the EU Commissioner, focusing on urgent and important issues in China - EU economic and trade cooperation [8]. - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [8]. - Stablecoins have become a focus among brokerage analysts, with many related phone conferences and research reports [8]. - China's domestic refined oil prices saw the "fourth increase" this year, with gasoline and diesel prices per ton increasing by 65 yuan and 60 yuan respectively [8]. - China officially released a water conservancy standard AI large - model, filling the gap in intelligent tools in the water conservancy standardization field [9]. 4. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties a. Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market has stabilized. With weak demand from traders and the approaching end of oil mill acquisitions, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Oils and Fats: There is a lack of new positive drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Sugar: With improved weather in Brazil's main sugar - producing areas and increased domestic imports, the market supply pressure is significant. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - Corn: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price has fallen below the previous support level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the technical support in the 2300 - 2317 range [13]. - Hogs: The price in the northern market is relatively stable, while in the southern market, there is limited room for price movement. The futures contract is oscillating around 13,500 [13][15]. - Eggs: The spot price is stable, but with expected weakening demand after the holiday and quality issues, the price is under pressure. The futures market is also showing a weak trend [15]. b. Energy and Chemicals - Urea: With high supply and slow - growing agricultural demand, the price is under pressure in the short term. However, export expectations and summer fertilizer replenishment may provide some support [15]. - Caustic Soda: With less maintenance of caustic soda plants in June and weakening terminal demand, the market is bearish [15]. - Coking Coal: The online auction of coking coal has seen many unsuccessful bids, and prices have dropped significantly. The market is cautious, and the medium - term downward trend remains unchanged [15]. c. Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Affected by the US tariff increase and a weakening US dollar, the prices of copper and aluminum are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with aluminum under more pressure [17]. - Alumina: Due to reduced supply from maintenance and production cuts, the spot price is relatively strong. The 2509 contract may fluctuate around 3000, but there is still an expectation of medium - term oversupply [17]. - Steel: Steel prices are showing a downward trend, and the market is cautious due to the approaching high - temperature and rainy season. The medium - term downward trend remains unchanged [17]. - Ferroalloys: After the Dragon Boat Festival, ferroalloys continued to decline. With limited production cuts on the supply side, weak demand in the off - season, and expected weakening costs, they are expected to remain bearish [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: With significant supply pressure and weak demand, the price is expected to remain within the 58,000 - 61,000 range. It is recommended to sell short when the price rebounds [19]. d. Option Finance - Stock Index: On June 3, A - share indexes rebounded slightly. The market is expected to show index oscillations in June, with medium - and large - cap stocks potentially outperforming. It is recommended to take a defensive approach in trading [19]. - Options: On June 3, A - share indexes rose slightly. The futures and options markets showed different trends, and investors are advised to take a defensive approach and consider buying wide - straddle options to bet on increased volatility [20].