中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（97）期 发布日期：2025-06-03 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/5/30 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 726.00 | 726.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 焦炭 | 1,308.00 | 1,308.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,405.00 | 13,405.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 11,865.00 | 11,865.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 塑料 | 6,960.00 | 6,960.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,875.00 | 6,875.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Data Summary - **Stock Indices**: On May 30, 2025, major US stock indices (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500) and the Hang Seng Index showed gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.355%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.114% [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold and silver prices increased, while most base metals on the LME had mixed performance. In the domestic market, precious metals generally rose, while base metals mostly declined. Energy - related commodities like NYMEX crude and ICE Brent crude dropped, and most domestic chemical and agricultural products also showed price fluctuations [2][4]. 2. Macro - Economic News - **Legal and Trade**: The US Federal Appellate Court suspended a ruling against Trump's global tariffs. The US has cut off some channels for selling semiconductor design software to China. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires [7][8]. - **Economic Policies**: The Chinese government issued a plan to improve the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental elements. The Fed Chair met with Trump to discuss economic development without discussing monetary policy expectations [7][9]. - **Economic Data**: Shanghai's foreign trade in the first four months of this year increased by 1%, with exports growing 13.8%. China's large - scale light industry enterprises' revenue and profit increased by 4.9% and 3.8% respectively in the first four months [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: Spot supply is low due to farming seasons, prices are stable with an upward bias. Traders are cautious about chasing prices up, and attention should be paid to oil mills' purchase stops and supply rhythm [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: Market trading volume decreased significantly. Weather conditions in the US and Australia are favorable for oilseed production, and the market lacks upward momentum, suggesting a weak and volatile outlook [12]. - **Sugar**: The price has broken through the key support level. Fundamentally, supply pressure exists, and it is recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to support levels [12]. - **Corn**: Supply pressure remains, and demand is weak. Technically, the price is in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see, with the possibility of a long - position trial if the resistance is broken [12]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices stabilized and rebounded. The futures contract is oscillating around 13,500, waiting for a direction [12]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are stable in the short - term but face medium - term pressure due to capacity and weather factors [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: In Shandong, the price is expected to be stable in the short - term, and the 2509 contract continues to trade at a low level [14]. - **Urea**: Supply is high, demand growth is slow, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to agricultural demand replenishment and export fulfillment [14]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Overseas tariff risks remain, and prices are oscillating. Copper inventories are decreasing, and aluminum inventories also declined [14]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are firm, but there is a medium - term surplus expectation. The 2509 contract may fluctuate around 3000 [16]. - **Steel Products**: The sentiment in the spot market has improved, and inventories are decreasing. However, due to macro - uncertainties, steel prices are in a low - level oscillation, and it is advisable to hold a light position before the holiday [16]. - **Silicon - based Alloys**: They are in a weak trend. Silicon iron lacks self - driving forces, and silicon manganese is affected by overseas ore supply and cost factors [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are weakening due to reduced iron production and pessimistic market sentiment [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The price has broken through the support level, and it is recommended to hold short positions while being cautious of rebounds [18]. 3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share indices rebounded on May 29. Before the holiday, it is necessary to control risks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming PMI data and holiday consumption data [18][19]. - **Options**: On May 29, A - share indices rose, and futures indices showed different trends in basis and volume. Trend investors should be defensive, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after volatility reduction [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the financial market, including macro - economic indicators, commodity prices, and major news events. It also offers trading suggestions for various commodities and financial instruments based on their current market conditions and fundamentals [2][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On May 29, 2025, major global stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index, NASDAQ Index, S&P 500, and Hang Seng Index all declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropping 0.578% to 42098.70 [2]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: SHIBOR overnight decreased by 2.824% to 1.41, while the US dollar index rose 0.542% to 100.44. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold rose 0.385% to 3312.40, while LME tin dropped 2.823% to 31495.00. In the domestic market, most commodities showed price fluctuations, with some rising and some falling [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed meeting minutes indicated that policymakers believe the economy faces higher uncertainty and should be cautious about interest - rate cuts, waiting for the impact of Trump's tariff policies to become clearer. Fed official Williams emphasized the importance of keeping inflation expectations stable [6][7]. - **International Trade and Policy**: China will implement a visa - free policy for ordinary passport holders from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain from June 9, 2025, to June 8, 2026. The US - China tariff reduction may support the profit growth of relevant export industries in the second quarter, but long - term external demand remains uncertain [7]. - **Industry News**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the current oil production quota plan and will discuss a potential 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in July production on May 31. Saudi Arabia's stock market has been hit by falling oil prices, and its budget requires an oil price of $96 per barrel [7][8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: Due to factors like the busy farming season, peanut supply is low, and prices are stable with an upward trend. However, traders are not eager to buy at high prices. It is not recommended to chase high prices in the futures market [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market lacks upward momentum. The weather in the US Midwest is favorable for sown areas, and Australia's oilseed - growing regions are expected to have normal weather conditions. It is advisable to view the market as weakly volatile [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures price is in a weak - oscillating trend. Brazil's improved weather has accelerated sugarcane harvesting, and the domestic market is pressured by increased imports and uncertain consumption. It is recommended to wait for a clear direction [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The reduction of remaining grain in production areas supports prices, but the substitution effect of wheat and weak demand are concerns. It is recommended to trade within the 2300 - 2350 yuan range [12]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price has stabilized and rebounded. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and with the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, procurement demand has increased. The futures market is waiting for a direction [12]. - **Eggs**: The egg spot price is stable. Although there is short - term support from domestic sales in production areas, the long - term outlook remains weak due to factors such as high - age laying hens and weather conditions [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain stable in the short term. The market has digested the expected June device maintenance, and non - aluminum downstream industries are restocking due to rigid demand [13]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price has slightly increased, but new orders are average. High supply pressure persists, and it is necessary to monitor agricultural demand replenishment and export fulfillment [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Overseas tariff risks still exist, and the prices of copper and aluminum continue to oscillate. The inventory of copper has decreased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum has also declined [13][15]. - **Alumina**: Affected by concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the supply of alumina is expected to remain tight. The 2509 contract has rebounded from a low level, and attention should be paid to the 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton pressure range [15]. - **Steel Products**: The trading volume in the steel spot market is weak, and prices are generally down. The total inventory of rebar has slightly increased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The black - metal sector is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The decline of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has slowed down. The supply of ferrosilicon decreased last week, and the demand increased. Ferromanganese is affected by overseas ore supply expectations, and the cost center has shifted down [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal has been restricted, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. The market is bearish, and the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a weak - oscillating state. The cost support has shifted down, and demand is structurally differentiated. It is recommended that short - position holders pay attention to the key support level of 59,500 yuan [17]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: On May 28, A - share indices oscillated and adjusted, with more stocks falling than rising. The new consumption field has performed well, but it may face short - term pressure due to high valuations. The overall trend of the Shanghai Composite Index may be oscillating consolidation, and short - term attention should be paid to the gap on May 7 [17][18]. - **Options**: For trend investors, a defensive strategy is recommended. Volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility decreases to bet on an increase in volatility [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets show complex trends. Stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 in the US have risen, while some commodity prices like COMEX gold and silver have fallen. In the domestic market, various commodities also present different price changes. Macroeconomic events, including international trade negotiations and domestic economic data releases, have an impact on market sentiment and price trends. Different sectors, such as agriculture, energy - chemical, and industrial metals, have their own supply - demand characteristics and price outlooks [2][6][7][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On May 28, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose by 740.58 points (1.78%) to 42343.65, the Nasdaq Index rose by 461.95 points (2.465%) to 19199.16, the S&P 500 rose by 118.72 points (2.046%) to 5921.54, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 99.66 points (0.428%) to 23381.99 [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold fell by 1.727% to 3299.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell by 0.758% to 33.39 dollars/ounce. In the domestic market, for example, the price of gold fell by 0.117% to 770.70, and the price of silver rose by 0.389% to 8249.00 [2]. - **Currency and Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR overnight rate fell by 3.586% to 1.45, the dollar index fell by 0.085% to 99.53, and the dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.19 [2]. 2. Macroeconomic News - **International Trade**: Premier Li Qiang attended the ASEAN - China - GCC Summit, emphasizing cooperation in multiple fields. The EU is seeking to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, and the US may lower tariffs on some countries. There are also expectations for the completion of trade agreements such as the China - GCC Free Trade Agreement [6]. - **Domestic Economy**: In April, the profits of China's large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 3% year - on - year, with new - kinetic - energy industries showing rapid profit growth. In May, the second - hand housing market in Guangzhou showed year - on - year growth [7]. - **Consumer Confidence**: In May, the US consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98, exceeding all economists' expectations [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: Affected by factors such as the busy farming season, the supply of peanut spot goods is low, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. However, the market lacks upward momentum, and it is not recommended to chase the high in the futures market [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: The US soybean planting rate is lower than expected, and the commodity market atmosphere is weak. The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar futures is in the range of 5800 - 5850 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see. If it breaks through the 5850 - yuan pressure level, a small - position long position can be tried [11]. - **Corn**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2340 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Pigs**: The pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures contract is oscillating around 13500, waiting for a direction [13]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is stable in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term due to factors such as high - age laying hens and weather [13]. 3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to run steadily in the short term, and the 2509 contract continues to run at a low level [13]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The UR2509 contract is expected to run in the range of 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Overseas tariff risks still exist, and the prices of copper and aluminum continue to oscillate and consolidate [13]. - **Alumina**: Affected by factors such as production capacity changes and supply disturbances, the 2509 contract of alumina rebounds from a low level, and attention should be paid to the pressure range of 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton [15]. - **Black Series**: Black series products such as steel and iron alloys are generally in a downward trend. It is not recommended to chase short positions in the short term [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is weak, and the second - round price cut of coke has been implemented. The prices of both continue to run weakly [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see. If it breaks through the 61500 - yuan pressure level, a small - position long position can be tried [15][16]. 3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows weak upward momentum, and it is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities [18][19]. - **Options**: On May 28, it is the last trading day of the May contracts of ETF options on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle positions to bet on increased volatility after the decline in volatility [20].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（93）期 发布日期：2025-05-27 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/27 08:00 | 2025/5/26 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 41603.07 | 41859.09 | -256.020 | -0.612 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 18737.21 | 18925.73 | -188.520 | -0.996 | | 标普500 | | 5802.82 | 5842.01 | -39.190 | -0.671 | | 恒生指数 | | 23282.33 | 23601.26 | -318.930 | -1.351 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.51 | 1.57 | -0.059 | -3.770 | | 美元指数 | | 98.96 | 98.98 | -0.015 | -0.015 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.18 | 7.18 | 0 | 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand structure of the steel industry has weakened on a month - on - month basis, and steel prices are under downward pressure. The market is affected by factors such as overseas tariff threats and domestic policy vacuums, with a focus on the changes in the industrial supply - demand structure. The destocking of the five major steel products has slowed down, and the prices of raw materials have declined, dragging down the prices of finished products [3]. - The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke are also under downward pressure. The supply of iron ore has a potential increase, while demand is weakening. For coking coal and coke, the market is weak due to factors such as reduced mine开工率, low transaction rates, and the expectation of a second price cut for coke [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As the domestic macro - policy entered a vacuum period, the market focus returned to the industrial fundamentals. The five major steel products continued to destock, but the destocking slowed down. With the approaching of the rainy season, the market was hesitant. After the first price cut of coke, the cost reduction further dragged down the steel price [9]. - The prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke in the spot and futures markets generally showed a downward trend, and there were also corresponding changes in positions, basis, spreads, and inventories [10]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National weekly production of rebar increased to 226.53 tons (month - on - month +1.34%, year - on - year - 3.02%), and that of hot - rolled coil decreased to 311.98 tons (month - on - month - 2.62%, year - on - year - 3.91%). The production of both blast furnace and electric furnace rebar increased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly to 83.69% (month - on - month - 0.55%, year - on - year +2.69%), while the electric furnace operating rate increased to 77.18% (month - on - month +2.63%, year - on - year +5.15%) [16][18][28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit shrank to +88 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 14.56%, year - on - year - 46.99%), and hot - rolled coil profit improved on a month - on - month basis to +40 yuan/ton (week - on - week +29.03%, year - on - year - 54.55%) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption decreased to 247.13 tons (month - on - month - 5.06%, year - on - year - 1.11%), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased to 313.06 tons (month - on - month - 4.99%, year - on - year - 4.51%). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.53 tons (month - on - month - 13.33%, year - on - year - 32.27%) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased to 604.22 tons (month - on - month - 2.52%, year - on - year - 22.94%), with the decline slowing down, the factory inventory slightly increasing, and the social inventory continuing to decline. Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased to 340.19 tons (month - on - month - 2.12%, year - on - year - 17.66%), with both factory and social inventories decreasing [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% month - on - month and 0.19% year - on - year, while the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.20% month - on - month and 40.61% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in April 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month - on - month but up 8.9% and 9.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipping volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased to 2729.2 tons (month - on - month +0.85%, year - on - year - 0.75%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased to 2151.3 tons (month - on - month - 5.28%, year - on - year - 11.25%). The iron ore price index was 99.58 (month - on - month - 2.57%, year - on - year - 16.86%) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 243.6 tons (month - on - month - 1.17 tons, year - on - year +6.8 tons), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports increased to 327.09 tons (month - on - month +0.99%, year - on - year +12.13%). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.57 days (month - on - month - 0.03%, year - on - year - 8.34%) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased to 13987.83 tons (month - on - month - 1.26%, year - on - year - 5.87%), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 8925.48 tons (month - on - month - 0.40%, year - on - year - 4.43%). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 22.94 days (month - on - month - 3.57%, year - on - year +2.55%) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased to 86.3% (month - on - month - 3.32%, year - on - year - 1.19%), the operating rate of coal washing plants increased to 62.36% (month - on - month +0.45%, year - on - year - 8.71%), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased to 15.93 tons (month - on - month +2.97%, year - on - year - 10.20%) [77]. - **Transaction Rate**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 61.01% (week - on - week +17.01%, year - on - year - 39%), and the weekly transaction rate was 59.98% (week - on - week - 2.09%, year - on - year +7.74%) [79]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 15 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 22 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 49 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.18% (month - on - month - 0.07%, year - on - year +3.10%). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 75.87% [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants decreased to 737.89 tons (month - on - month - 1.93%, year - on - year - 3.85%), the steel mill coking coal inventory increased to 798.58 tons (month - on - month +0.96%, year - on - year +6.15%), and the coking coal port inventory decreased to 301.56 tons (month - on - month - 1.48%, year - on - year +31.40%) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased to 73.1 tons (month - on - month +11.70%, year - on - year +58.19%), the steel enterprise coke inventory decreased to 660.59 tons (month - on - month - 0.48%, year - on - year +18.26%), and the coke port inventory decreased to 223.10 tons (month - on - month - 0.90%, year - on - year +5.09%) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of coking coal is weakening, and the first price cut of coke has been implemented. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1230 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 720 yuan/ton), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1150 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 50 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 650 yuan/ton) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between the 10 - 01 contracts of rebar has slightly widened. The 9 - 01 spread of iron ore has slightly shrunk, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has fluctuated within a narrow range [105][111].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（92）期 发布日期：2025-05-26 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/26 08:00 | 2025/5/23 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 41603.07 | 41859.09 | -256.020 | -0.612 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 18737.21 | 18925.73 | -188.520 | -0.996 | | 标普500 | | 5802.82 | 5842.01 | -39.190 | -0.671 | | 恒生指数 | | 23601.26 | 23544.31 | 56.950 | 0.242 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.57 | 1.47 | 0.10 | 6.826 | | 美元指数 | | 99.07 | 99.12 | -0.058 | -0.058 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.19 | 7.19 | 0 | 0 | | 主力 ...

中原期货研究所 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/22 | 2025/5/21 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 纳斯达克指数 | 41860.44 18872.64 | 42677.24 19142.71 | -816.80 -270.070 | -1.914 -1.411 | | 标普500 | | 5844.61 | 5940.46 | -95.850 | -1.614 | | 恒生指数 | | | | | | | | | 23827.78 | 23681.48 | 146.30 | 0.618 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.51 | 1.51 | 0 | 0 | | 美元指数 | | 99.64 | 99.60 | 0.038 | 0.038 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.21 | 7.21 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/20 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（87）期 发布日期：2025-05-19 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/19 08:00 | 2025/5/16 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 42654.74 | 42322.75 | 331.990 | 0.784 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 19211.10 | 19112.32 | 98.780 | 0.517 | | 标普500 | | 5958.38 | 5916.93 | 41.450 | 0.701 | | 恒生指数 | | 23345.05 | 23453.16 | -108.110 | -0.461 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.65 | 1.40 | 0.250 | 17.806 | | 美元指数 | | 100.74 | 100.98 | -0.244 | -0.241 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.20 | 7.20 | 0 | 0 | | 主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the daily market tracking data of commodity indices, including the performance of macro - indicators,主力合约 of various commodities, and provides morning meeting viewpoints on major varieties, as well as macro - economic news [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro - indicators**: On May 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, the Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.212% to 42051.06, the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.719% to 19146.81, the S&P 500 increased by 0.102% to 5892.58, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.304% to 23640.65, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.071% to 1.41, the US dollar index decreased by 0.120% to 100.96, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.21 [2]. - **主力合约**: COMEX gold decreased by 2.268% to 3180.70, COMEX silver decreased by 2.115% to 32.39, LME copper decreased by 0.078% to 9592.00, LME aluminum increased by 1.305% to 2522.50, LME zinc increased by 2.089% to 2761.50, LME lead increased by 0.176% to 1992.50, LME tin increased by 0.516% to 32890.00, LME nickel increased by 0.413% to 15800.00, ICE11 -号 sugar decreased by 0.550% to 18.08, ICE2 -号 cotton decreased by 1.295% to 65.55, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.093% to 1076.00, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.545% to 292.00, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.065% to 52.20, CBOT corn increased by 0.508% to 444.75, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 1.163% to 62.89, and ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.126% to 65.85 [2]. - **Domestic commodities**: For metals, gold decreased by 1.712% to 748.68, silver decreased by 1.342% to 8085.00, copper decreased by 0.367% to 78650.00, zinc increased by 0.396% to 22800.00, aluminum increased by 0.074% to 20255.00, tin decreased by 0.109% to 265480.00, lead increased by 0.531% to 17025.00, nickel increased by 0.248% to 125540.00, iron ore increased by 0.068% to 737.50, alumina increased by 1.154% to 2979.00, rebar decreased by 0.256% to 3119.00, stainless steel decreased by 0.115% to 13065.00, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.337% to 3256.00 [2]. - **Domestic chemical products**: Coke decreased by 0.270% to 1478.00, natural rubber decreased by 0.328% to 15185.00, 20 -号 rubber decreased by 0.384% to 12985.00, plastic increased by 0.177% to 7352.00, polypropylene PP decreased by 0.097% to 7186.00, (PTA) decreased by 0.082% to 4870.00, asphalt decreased by 0.142% to 3516.00, methanol decreased by 0.507% to 2353.00, ethylene glycol decreased by 0.289% to 4493.00, styrene increased by 1.214% to 7840.00, glass decreased by 0.860% to 1037.00, crude oil decreased by 0.411% to 484.60, fuel oil decreased by 0.033% to 3056.00, soda ash decreased by 0.595% to 1337.00, pulp remained unchanged at 5378.00, caustic soda decreased by 0.237% to 2524.00, PX decreased by 0.058% to 6876.00, and LPG decreased by 0.735% to 4324.00 [4]. - **Domestic agricultural products**: Yellow soybean 1 increased by 0.216% to 4183.00, yellow soybean 2 decreased by 0.560% to 3552.00, soybean meal decreased by 0.549% to 2898.00, rapeseed meal decreased by 0.399% to 2499.00, soybean oil decreased by 0.202% to 7898.00, rapeseed oil decreased by 0.064% to 9432.00, palm oil decreased by 0.098% to 8176.00, white sugar decreased by 0.305% to 5888.00, yellow corn decreased by 0.382% to 2347.00, corn starch decreased by 0.259% to 2695.00, No.1 cotton increased by 0.074% to 13455.00, and cotton yarn decreased by 0.152% to 19745.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - China's counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs remain in effect. The US imposed two rounds of tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl, and China took counter - measures in a timely manner [7]. - To implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, China has suspended the inclusion of 28 US entities in the export control list and 17 US entities in the unreliable entity list for 90 days starting from May 14. The US has adjusted its tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% of reciprocal tariffs, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. It has also adjusted the tax on small - value parcels [7]. - In April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, about 4 basis points lower than the previous month [8]. - China's first comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut in 2025 has taken effect. Starting from May 15, the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% reserve requirement ratio), and the reserve requirement ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies has been lowered by 5 percentage points, expected to inject about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market [8]. - Seven departments, including the central bank and the financial regulatory authority, have jointly issued a document proposing 15 policy measures to promote the development of science and technology finance in seven aspects, providing full - life - cycle and full - chain financial services for scientific and technological innovation [8]. - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission has held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that existing policies will be promoted to take effect earlier, and incremental policies will be studied and reserved according to the situation [9]. - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2083 at 16:30, down 71 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.2090 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 35 basis points to 7.1956, the highest since April 3 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is relatively stable, with oil mills' demand providing some support. There are few topics for speculation. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - **Oils and fats**: About 15% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week. Argentina has raised its forecast for the 2024/25 soybean harvest. The external oil market lacks strong support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - **Sugar**: On May 14, the sugar futures contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The supply in Brazil has decreased significantly, while domestic demand is strong. However, the opening of the import profit window may bring pressure. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, with resistance at 5950 yuan/ton and support at 5850 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: On May 14, the corn futures contract closed at 2356 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The supply in the northern ports is decreasing, but wheat substitution suppresses demand. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish view, with support at 2340 yuan/ton [11]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable with a slight decline. The supply exceeds demand, and the consumption is weak. The futures contract is oscillating at the bottom of the range. It is recommended to operate intraday [11]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price is stable. Food factories' demand for the Dragon Boat Festival is increasing, but the trade volume is decreasing. The egg price has limited room for further increase, and the medium - term capacity pressure remains [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic soda**: The supply in Shandong is narrowing, but non - aluminum industries' demand is cautious. The 2509 contract has rebounded [13]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price is stable, with high daily production. The inventory has decreased significantly. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is decreasing seasonally, while agricultural demand is increasing. The market may continue to oscillate at a high level [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum have been boosted by the progress of China - US negotiations. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous gap positions [13]. - **Alumina**: Some alumina plants have maintenance and production - reduction plans, and new production capacity is ramping up. The cost has decreased, and the 2509 contract has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 3000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: The spot market has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The steel prices are expected to continue to rebound, with resistance at 3150 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [14]. - **Silicon iron and silicon manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are stable. The steel mills' pressure on prices is obvious. The two products may rebound slightly, with resistance at 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 6000 yuan/ton for silicon manganese [14]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The coking coal market is weak, and the coke price is under pressure. The two products are stable in the short term but remain relatively weak [14]. - **Lithium carbonate**: On May 14, the futures contract closed at 65200 yuan/ton, up 3%. The supply has decreased, but the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see the effectiveness of the breakthrough, with resistance at 68000 yuan/ton and support at 63500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: On May 14, the three major A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points. The trading volume was 1.35 trillion yuan. The futures indices of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 all rose with increased positions and volume. The PCR of option trading volume decreased, while the PCR of option positions increased, and the implied volatility increased. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after the volatility decreases [17].