Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.10.20 [1] - Author: Shen Wen [2] - Report Source: Research and Consulting Department of Zhongyuan Futures [1] 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views 2.1 Soda Ash - This week, the spot price of soda ash remained stable. Supply decreased due to maintenance, but is expected to increase as previously maintained units resume production. Demand is weak, with some enterprises having poor shipping and a slight accumulation of alkali plant inventory. High supply and inventory strongly suppress soda ash prices, and the futures price continues to fluctuate weakly. In the medium to long term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand under the pattern of new capacity release. Opportunities for shorting on rebounds after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered. The SA2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton [5]. 2.2 Glass - This week, the spot price of float glass fluctuated. The overall supply was stable, while demand was weak, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. The futures price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the cold - repair dynamics of production lines under the condition of profit losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week View Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%. The weekly output was 74.05 tons, a decrease of 3.03 tons. Light soda ash output was 32.50 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons, and heavy soda ash output was 41.55 tons, a decrease of 1.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 69.98 tons, a decrease of 1.11 tons. Light soda ash demand was 30.43 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons, and heavy soda ash demand was 39.55 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons [5]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 16.13 tons, unchanged from the 9th. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.87 tons, unchanged [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [6]. - Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2% [6]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price - As of October 16, 2025, in the central China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 120 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures price was weak, and the glass futures price dropped significantly [11][14]. 3.2.2 Price Difference - As of October 16, 2025, the 1 - 5 price difference of soda ash was - 90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 price difference of glass was - 137 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the glass - soda ash arbitrage price difference was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Fundamentals 3.3.1 Supply - Soda Ash: The weekly output decreased, but is expected to increase as maintenance units resume production. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate decreased, with the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate at 89.42% (a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%) and the joint - production capacity utilization rate at 75.74% (a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%) [26][35]. - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired [6]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [39]. - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [51]. 3.3.3 Profitability - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of joint - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton [54]. - Glass: The report provides cost and profit data for float glass production using coal and natural gas as fuels, but specific analysis is not given [55][56][57][58].

Report Title - "Sugar Market Oscillates to Find the Bottom: A Battle between Cost Support and Supply Pressure - Sugar Weekly Report from October 13 - 17, 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current sugar market is in an oscillating bottom - finding stage. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between global supply growth (Brazil's sugar production increased by 10.76% year - on - year) and domestic cost support (production cost of 5400 yuan). The price will oscillate in the range of 5350 - 5450 yuan, and the effectiveness of cost support should be noted [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - The 11 - number sugar continuous contract's closing price dropped by 3.73% to 15.5; the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased by 1.53% to 5412 yuan/ton; the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all declined, with decreases ranging from 0.34% to 0.70%. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract expanded by 17.32% to 298 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5.06% to 8418. The proportion of bullish sentiment towards Zhengzhou sugar dropped by 5 percentage points to 15%, the bearish proportion increased by 10 percentage points to 55%, and the neutral proportion decreased by 5 percentage points to 30% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not elaborated in the given content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not elaborated in the given content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not elaborated in the given content 2.2 Production and Sales of Main Sugar - Cane Producing Areas in China - Not elaborated in the given content 2.3 Production and Sales of Main Sugar - Beet Producing Areas in China - Not elaborated in the given content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not elaborated in the given content 2.5 China's Sugar Import and Export - Not elaborated in the given content 2.6 China's Main Sugar Importing Countries - Not elaborated in the given content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - Brazil's in - quota processing cost decreased by 4.18% to 4177 yuan, and the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 4.27% to 5332 yuan. The in - quota import profit increased by 9.97% to 1743 yuan, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 56.95% to 587 yuan. The premium and discount decreased by 600% to - 0.3, and the shipping cost increased by 0.70% to 38.9 yuan. Thailand's in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.44% to 4236 yuan, and the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 2.49% to 5410 yuan. The in - quota import profit increased by 5.06% to 1683 yuan, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 28.79% to 510 yuan. The premium and discount remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 yuan [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.2 Sugar - Cane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.5 Sugar Import and Export in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums, Discounts, and Shipping Costs - Not elaborated in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased. The production of rebar decreased while demand increased, and the apparent demand rebounded significantly due to the low - base effect, with inventory turning from an increase to a decrease. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down. The fundamentals improved month - on - month, but the sustainability of demand is questionable. In the short term, there is no obvious negative feedback pressure, and steel prices will fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased. The molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Supported by high molten iron output, the fundamentals are not under obvious pressure, and prices are more affected by macro and terminal demand, showing short - term weak fluctuations [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the production of coking coal in the main producing areas has mostly returned to normal, and the overall supply has not changed much. The demand for coking coal has slightly improved, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure at present. Coke enterprises' profits have shrunk, and the second round of price increases has started, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. High molten iron output at the same period provides some support for the prices of coking coal and coke, and they should be treated as range - bound [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first week after the holiday, affected by tariff sentiment, steel prices declined overall. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, with rebar showing reduced production and increased demand, and the apparent demand rebounding significantly due to the low - base effect. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down. However, due to the suppression of macro - sentiment by tariffs and the concentrated delivery in the middle of the month, the prices of the black series declined under pressure [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 201.16 tons (down 1.10% month - on - month and 17.58% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 321.84 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 5.42% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production decreased, while electric furnace production increased. The blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly [16][18][23]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was - 66 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan/ton week - on - week and 348 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 57 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan/ton week - on - week and 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 219.75 tons (up 43.46% month - on - month and down 9.75% year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.78 tons (down 6.29% month - on - month and 13.80% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.55 tons (up 6.96% month - on - month and down 1.00% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory turned from an increase to a decrease, with both factory and social inventories declining. Hot - rolled coil inventory increase slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising slightly [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the transaction of commercial housing improved, but the land market transaction remained weak. In September 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2825 tons (up 5.94% month - on - month and 14.81% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2519.4 tons (down 17.28% month - on - month and up 5.69% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: Molten iron daily output was 240.95 tons (down 0.59 tons month - on - month and up 6.59 tons year - on - year), the ore - unloading volume at 45 ports was 315.72 tons (down 3.45% month - on - month and 3.12% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.21 days (down 0.10% month - on - month and 3.08% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 14278.27 tons (up 1.81% month - on - month and down 6.93% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8982.73 tons (down 0.70% month - on - month and 0.27% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.92 days (up 1.74% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 87.33% (up 6.64% month - on - month and down 1.48% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal - washing plants was 35.79% (up 1.33% month - on - month and down 15.59% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 15.30 tons (down 13.71% month - on - month and up 36.84% year - on - year) [77]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 61.59 (down 38.41% week - on - week and 19.15% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 89.33% (down 4.69% week - on - week and up 28.15% year - on - year) [80]. - **Coke Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month and 37 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.24% (down 1.25% month - on - month and unchanged year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 84.72% (down 0.95% month - on - month and 2.06% year - on - year) [86]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 852.98 tons (up 4.13% month - on - month and 10.38% year - on - year), the steel mills' coking coal inventory was 788.50 tons (up 0.97% month - on - month and 7.36% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 272.71 tons (down 7.55% month - on - month and 33.58% year - on - year) [92]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 37.59 tons (down 11.64% month - on - month and 1.36% year - on - year), the steel mills' coke inventory was 639.44 tons (down 1.75% month - on - month and up 13.58% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 195.15 tons (up 0.03% month - on - month and 8.28% year - on - year) [98]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the second - round price increase, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1550 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 250 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The rebar basis widened, and the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread narrowed. The coil - to - rebar spread slightly decreased, and the coking coal and coke 1 - 5 spreads slightly increased [105][111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: China's September economic data was released, the US government continued to be in a "shutdown" with key economic data missing, and Fed officials signaled potential interest rate cuts [4]. - Fundamentals: Market supply was becoming more relaxed. There was still a rigid - demand base on the demand side, but high copper prices significantly suppressed purchasing willingness, leading to strong market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. - Overall logic: Amid rising Sino - US trade frictions and increased market risk - aversion, in the medium term, the shortage of copper mines and the interest - rate - cut logic remained, suggesting a bullish approach [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: Similar to copper, China's September economic data was released, the US government was in a "shutdown", and Fed officials signaled rate cuts [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained flat. In October, with the traditional peak season, the proportion of molten aluminum gradually increased, and overall demand remained stable. The cost support weakened as alumina prices continued to fall, and the overall cost of electrolytic aluminum shifted downward. After the holiday, the second - week social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased again, and it was expected that domestic aluminum ingot inventories would enter a destocking trend in the second half of October [6]. - Overall logic: With little change in fundamentals, aluminum prices were expected to continue trading in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the driving impact of the macro - market [6]. Alumina - Macro: The same macro - situation as copper and electrolytic aluminum [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the domestic alumina operating capacity was at a high level. Although a 400,000 - ton operating capacity in Shanxi was cut due to rainy - season supply issues, there was still an oversupply pressure in the domestic alumina market, and the national weekly alumina operating rate decreased slightly. Only a few northern enterprises had taken production - cut actions as the profit margin of alumina was compressed, but the industry still had an average profit compared to the net average price, and there were still long - term order delivery needs. On the demand side, as of last Thursday, the alumina raw - material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.126 million tons, a cumulative increase of 32,000 tons week - on - week. As winter storage approached, some aluminum plants' spot - purchasing enthusiasm had increased, but the overall spot market remained in a state of oversupply [8]. - Overall logic: The alumina market remained in an oversupply situation, lacking new driving factors, and was expected to operate weakly at a low level [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly price changes**: The document shows the weekly cumulative percentage changes of various metals including Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, etc., but specific values are not fully detailed in text form [15]. - **Weekly news**: News included Codelco's increase in 2026 copper premium to European customers, concerns from Japan, Spain, and South Korea about the decline in copper smelting and refining fees, changes in Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper and aluminum delivery points, LME's plan to launch a new mechanism for low - carbon metal premium, and the cost and profit situation of China's electrolytic aluminum industry in September 2025 [16]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Domestic inflation data**: In September, CPI同比 was - 0.3% (previous value - 0.4%), core CPI同比 was 1.0% (previous value 0.9%), and PPI同比 was - 2.3% (previous value - 2.9%). It was the first time since April 2024 that CPI and PPI both rebounded. The narrowing of the CPI decline was mainly due to the base effect, and the core CPI reached a 19 - month high [18]. - **Domestic import and export data**: In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year (previous value 4.4%), and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year (expected 1.4%, previous value 1.3%). Exports showed a pattern of "strong in Europe, weak in the US", with strong growth in emerging markets. Imports reached a 1.5 - year high, and the quarterly import growth turned positive for the first time after three consecutive quarters of negative growth [20]. - **Next - week macro - outlook**: It includes data such as China's October LPR, 1 - 9 months' national real estate development investment, September industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as events like the press conference on national economic operations and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. For the international market, it includes the eurozone's October manufacturing PMI and the US September CPI and October manufacturing PMI [22]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - **Spot market**: The copper processing fee TC remained weak [25]. - **Domestic market**: The open interest of Shanghai copper options reached a new high. The open interest of copper futures, options, and international copper futures showed different trends. The net position of the top 10 traders and the futures closing price of cathode copper were also presented [28]. - **Overseas market**: The US dollar index weakened, and the LME copper price, LME copper basis, and COMEX copper non - commercial net position were analyzed [32]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories of copper in Shanghai bonded areas, SHFE, LME, and COMEX were shown. Social inventories of copper increased week - on - week as of October 16. The weekly operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 62.5% from October 10 - 16, and it was expected to rise to 66.26% from October 17 - 23 [33][38]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic market**: The spot price of electrolytic aluminum turned to par. The A00 aluminum ingot premium, the price difference between primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots, and the social inventories of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum were presented. The open interest of Shanghai aluminum futures declined [42][43]. - **Overseas market**: The US dollar index weakened, and the LME 3 - month aluminum price, LME aluminum basis, and LME aluminum total inventory were analyzed [47]. - **Downstream开工率**: As of October 17, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.5%. Different sub - industries had different trends, with some expected to rise and some to fall [48]. - **Recycled aluminum alloy**: As of October 16, the spot price of recycled aluminum alloy increased week - on - week. The supply was tight, demand recovery was less than expected, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the social inventory began to gradually destock. The import loss narrowed [52]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot market**: Alumina spot prices declined, and the prices of alumina in different regions, the average spot price index, and the prices of related raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda were presented [62]. - **Futures market**: The inventory of alumina futures increased, and the basis, as well as the relationship between alumina futures prices and the prices of aluminum and caustic soda futures, were analyzed [64]. - **Supply and demand**: Supply decreased slightly as a Shanxi alumina enterprise reduced production. As of October 16, the built - in capacity of Chinese alumina was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 96.3 million tons. Demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises remained stable, with some procurement activities [69]. - **Cost and profit**: As of October 17, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2980.53 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 34.93 yuan/ton. Ore prices were in a stalemate, caustic soda prices first rose and then fell, and动力煤 prices increased [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price rebounded slightly. Recently, many urea enterprises have shut down their devices for maintenance, resulting in a significant phased decrease in daily production, which is expected to gradually recover to over 190,000 tons after the end of the month. On the demand side, the reserve demand has moderately increased, but the rainy weather has affected the agricultural demand to some extent, and the overall downstream demand is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. Overall, there has been no obvious improvement in the supply - demand situation of urea, and the high - inventory pattern strongly limits the rebound space. The futures price continues to trade at a low level. In the future, attention should be paid to export policies and off - season storage procurement [4]. - For the UR2601 contract, focus on the trading range of 1,550 - 1,670 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: The daily production of urea has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), including 1.05 million tons of coal - based urea and 270,300 tons of gas - based urea, with an average daily production of 189,000 tons. There are many planned shutdowns of urea enterprises, such as Henan Zhongyuan Dahua Group Co., Ltd., Yunnan Dawei Ammonia Co., Ltd., CNOOC Fudao Co., Ltd., and Linggu Chemical Group Co., Ltd. [4][20][24] - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 24.18% (-1.32%), and the finished product inventory is 709,100 tons (a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous period). The production of autumn fertilizers is coming to an end, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers is at a low level. The operating rate of melamine is 55.18% (-10.29%), showing a significant month - on - month decline [4][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 6.71 days (a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 days) [4][30]. - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price is oscillating strongly, and the profit of urea has decreased month - on - month [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Breakdown - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly this week [6]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price has shown a mixed trend of rising and falling [10]. - **Supply**: The daily production has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), and the average daily production is 189,000 tons. Many enterprises have planned shutdowns [16][20][24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the pre - sales days of enterprises have decreased [26][30]. - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine enterprises have decreased [32][33]. - **Raw Material End**: The coal price is trading strongly [35]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [44]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: Relevant data on spreads such as liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride (in terms of pure nitrogen) are presented [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate between 74,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention on the continuous game between supply increment and demand resilience. The current market is in an upward phase after breaking through the oscillation range, and the core contradiction lies in the game between the 4.32% increase in supply - side capacity utilization rate and the high - growth in demand - side new energy vehicle sales. Inventory depletion supports the price to break through the upper limit of the original oscillation range, but the significant decline in open interest indicates that funds are cautious about continuous growth [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: The weekly average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.41% to 75,750 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed to 50 yuan/ton (a 90.2% week - on - week decrease). The main futures contract rose 4.07% to 75,700 yuan/ton, with open interest dropping 28.35% to 159,000 lots. The prices of other lithium salts also showed different degrees of increase, such as the price of electric - carbon lithium hydroxide increasing by 0.81% - 0.76% [2][4] - **Price Premium and Discount Changes**: For raw materials, the premium and discount of mica - based materials increased by 100, and that of salt - lake and recycled materials increased by 200; for enterprises, the premium and discount of Ganfeng Lithium decreased by 100, and that of Jiuling Lithium decreased by 200 [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Lithium Carbonate Production**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate reached 74.39% (a 4.32% week - on - week increase), and the weekly output of 20,635 tons hit a record high [2] - **Production by Region and Raw Material Source**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Mid - and Down - stream Consumption**: In September, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 22.9% year - on - year, and the retail sales in the first half of October reached 367,000 units, remaining at a high level, but downstream procurement weakened after the holiday [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The port inventory of lithium ore decreased by 5.17% to 55,000 tons week - on - week, and the import cost support still exists [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation**: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged week - on - week [28] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The freight rates for bulk and container transportation from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained stable [28] - **Lithium Carbonate Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Seasonal Changes in Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 11,983 week - on - week, with significant decreases in some warehouses such as Shanghai Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Warehouse and COSCO Shipping Nanchang Warehouse [41] Cost and Profit - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate was 74,294 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 244.19% week - on - week to 1,456 yuan/ton, with the profit margin significantly narrowing [2] Lithium - Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Material Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Material Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium - Battery Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium - Battery Recycling**: Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales - In September, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 22.9% year - on - year, and the retail sales in the first half of October reached 367,000 units, remaining at a high level [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The cotton market is in a stalemate this week. Domestically, new cotton acquisition progresses slowly, and the global cotton supply pressure is significant while overseas demand shows no improvement. In the short term, cotton has support below and pressure above. It is recommended to go long with a light position in the short - term and mainly wait and see [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 01 Market Review US Cotton Weekly Market Review - US cotton fluctuated weakly this week. With the market pre - digesting the Fed's decision to restart interest rate cuts, the weakening dollar boosted a weak rebound in cotton futures. As of the week ending September 26, hedge funds and large speculators held a net short position of 45,420 contracts in cotton, an increase of 2,771 contracts from the previous week. Long positions were 69,367 contracts, a decrease of 751 contracts from the previous week, and short positions were 114,787 contracts, an increase of 2,020 contracts from the previous week [9]. Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly this week, quoted at 13,210 - 13,380 yuan/ton, with the Friday closing price at 13,335 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10 yuan or 0.08%. As of October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 2,653, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 183, totaling 2,836, equivalent to 119,112 tons [10]. - Since the start of the acquisition this year, the purchase price of seed cotton has shown a trend of first falling and then rising. As of now, the overall average price is lower than the same period last year. Spot trading has temporarily become dull, and textile mills maintain just - in - time procurement [13]. - The spot basis is generally stable and slightly weak, with some batches still offering slight discounts [16]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013. The Xinjiang cotton region is particularly prominent, with an expected total output of about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the country's total output [19]. - The listing progress of new cotton is slower than in previous years [21]. Import - In August, China imported 73,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6% and a month - on - month increase of 36.9%. Among the main source countries, Australian new cotton has become the preferred supplementary source in the market, with the import proportion increasing to 77%, and Brazil accounting for 15%. In the 2024/25 season, China's cotton imports decreased, with a total annual import of 1.053 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.5% [27]. Demand - Demand is lower than in previous years. Domestic demand has no obvious positive factors, and exports have slightly improved [29]. - The operating rate has declined compared to before the holiday. Due to the pressure of subsequent order connection, fabric mills mainly wait and see in raw material procurement and purchase according to orders [35]. Profit - This week, the processing profit of ginning mills is 431 - 525 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills is - 695.6 - - 570.1 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to last week [38]. Inventory - As of the week ending October 17, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 278,000 tons, and 202,800 tons lower than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons. During the handover period of the new and old seasons in September, there was a shortage of suitable raw materials, and the demand side did not improve significantly. Textile mills replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis, so the raw material inventory decreased slightly and steadily [44]. 03 International Market Global Cotton Supply and Demand - According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in September, the global total cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's total output increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [46]. US Cotton Export - Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have suspended disclosure [49]. US Cotton Growth Status - Not provided in detail in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In September, China's economic data was gradually released, the US government continued to be in a "shutdown" state with key economic data missing, and Fed officials gradually signaled interest - rate cuts [4]. - Supply - demand: In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, some plants are expected to enter maintenance, tightening market supply, and with the approaching demand procurement cycle, liquid caustic soda prices are expected to rise steadily. In Shandong, with the shipment of orders from other provinces and the decline in enterprise inventories, some enterprises may continue to raise prices. The low - concentration caustic soda market is expected to rise slightly, while the high - concentration caustic soda may be sold at lower prices [4]. - Overall logic: Recently, the spot price in Shandong has been relatively strong, but there is a certain expectation of production cuts in the alumina industry. Coupled with the improvement of enterprise profits due to the recovery of liquid chlorine prices, the caustic soda 2601 contract will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [4]. - Strategy advice: For the caustic soda 2601 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2600 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2300 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot market**: From 2024/10 to 2025/10, data on the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, the price difference of 32% caustic soda between Shandong and Jiangsu, and Shandong and Zhejiang were presented. Also, data on the basis, the market prices of flake caustic soda (99%) in Shandong and the northwest, the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and raw salt in Shandong, and the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong were shown [9][12]. - **Futures market**: From 2024/10 to 2025/10, data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, alumina, PVC, and soda ash, the number of caustic soda warehouse receipts were presented [15]. - **Weekly market review (20251010 - 20251016)**: The prices, price changes, and price change rates of products such as raw salt, liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, alumina, viscose staple fiber, and lithium hydroxide were provided. For example, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased from 815 yuan/ton to 830 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.84%, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased from - 100 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 150% [18]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side - Output and operating rate**: From 20251010 - 1016, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a decrease of 2.6% compared to the previous period. Loads in the northwest, north, east, south, and northeast regions all declined [20]. - **Supply side - Enterprise maintenance situation**: Enterprises in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, Tianjin, and Liaoning have maintenance plans, with different maintenance times and durations [22]. - **Downstream demand**: In the alumina industry, due to high profits in the electrolytic aluminum industry and shrinking profits in the alumina industry, electrolytic aluminum plants have made small - scale purchases for replenishment, but the transaction price is still declining. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased by 1.02% week - on - week [26]. - **Inventory**: As of 20251016, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous period and an increase of 13.83% compared to the same period last year. The inventory situation varied in different regions [29]. - **Liquid chlorine**: As of October 16, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.43%. The liquid chlorine market is expected to be stable with a downward trend in the near future. As of October 17, 2025, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, and it is expected to rise to 78.47% this week [33]. - **Chlor - alkali cost - profit**: From 20251010 - 20251016, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 394 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.54% [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors such as international trade policies, monetary policies, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. The A - share market is in a phase of high - level adjustment, but the medium - term trend remains unchanged. The price trends of different commodities show differences based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [5][6][19][20] - For different commodity futures, specific trading strategies are proposed according to their price trends and fundamental analysis, including short - term selling on rallies, long - term buying on dips, and range - bound trading [9][10][11][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On October 20, 2025, most chemical futures prices rose compared to the previous day. For example, the price of coking coal increased by 49.0 to 1,228.00 with a 4.156% increase; the price of coke increased by 53.50 to 1,729.50 with a 3.192% increase. However, the price of LPG decreased by 101.0 to 4,119.00 with a - 2.393% decrease [3] - For specific products: - Urea: The supply is expected to increase after the maintenance reduction, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price continues to consolidate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the participation in the Indian tender and the off - season storage procurement [10] - Caustic soda: The spot price in Shandong is relatively firm, but the new capacity release and the expected reduction in the alumina industry put pressure on the 2601 contract [10] - Coking coal and coke: The supply of coking coal is stable in the short term, the demand is improving, the second - round price increase of coke has been launched, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [10][13] - Logs: The price breaks through the key pressure level, and a bullish strategy can be adopted, but attention should be paid to the inventory pressure [13] - Pulp: The supply - demand is weak, the inventory is at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the support at 5080 - 5100 [13] - Offset printing paper: The supply pressure is increasing, the inventory is rising, and attention should be paid to the support at 4150 [13] - Copper and aluminum: Supported by macro and supply - demand factors, the prices remain high, but macro risks should be watched out for [13][15] - Alumina: The supply is in excess, the 2601 contract is weak, and attention should be paid to the interference of factors such as bauxite [15] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The inventory is decreasing, the demand is improving, the steel price has support at a low level, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [15] - Ferroalloys: The production and consumption of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese change, and the short - term is expected to continue to fluctuate widely [15] - Lithium carbonate: The price breaks through the upper limit of the shock range, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78000. Be vigilant against the impact of new capacity [15][17] 3.2 Agricultural Products - On October 20, 2025, most agricultural product futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of No. 2 yellow soybeans increased by 41.0 to 3,608.00 with a 1.149% increase; the price of yellow corn decreased by 3.0 to 2,114.00 with a - 0.142% decrease [3] - For specific products: - Peanuts: The futures price is in a weak shock, the supply is affected by the weather, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the support at 7900 - 7920 [9] - Sugar: The futures price is slightly rising, the production in Brazil is increasing, the new - season production in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to increase, the domestic inventory is low, and it is recommended to go long lightly near the support at 5400 [9] - Corn: The futures price is falling, the new - grain supply pressure is large, the demand is restricted, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the support at 2100 - 2110 [9] - Live pigs: The national average price is low and fluctuating, the north is rising and the south is falling, and the futures price is expected to weakly rebound [9] - Eggs: The spot price is falling, the supply is sufficient, the demand is average, the futures price is expected to continue to decline, and a calendar spread short strategy is recommended [10] - Cotton: The supply pressure is prominent, the demand is weak, the price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough at 13300 - 13400 [10] 3.3 Macro News - Trump continues to release easing signals, and the US government is quietly relaxing tariff policies. The Supreme Court will hold a hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" in early November [5] - The only silver futures fund in the market, SDIC UBS Silver Futures, upgrades its purchase limit. Silver prices have reached a record high this year, but there is a risk of correction [5] - At the IMF and World Bank Group annual meeting, there are concerns about the economic outlook, and many business people hope to use Hong Kong as a springboard to explore the mainland and Asian markets [6] - China's central bank's two monetary policy tools for the capital market have effectively boosted market confidence and enhanced market stability in the past year [6] - The price of silver has risen significantly this year, and there is a shortage of silver in some areas [6] - Banks are in the critical stage of the "year - end battle", and some small and medium - sized banks have advanced the "good start" campaign for next year [7] - At the 2025 North Bund International Shipping Forum, innovative achievements in high - end shipping services were released, including the first transformation - finance ship financing lease business [7] 3.4 Stock Index Options and Financial Market - On October 17, the three major A - share indexes declined, the trading volume was less than 2 trillion, and most sectors fell. The futures and options of different stock indexes showed different performance characteristics. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles to bet on volatility after the volatility decline [19] - The A - share market is in a high - level adjustment, but the medium - term trend remains unchanged. The price increase logic may be a mid - term investment main line. The market style is currently value - dominant, and the growth style is in a benign adjustment period. It is recommended to buy on dips when the index futures adjust and stabilize [19][20][21]

Report Information - Report Title: Morning Meeting Minutes, Issue (186) in 2025 - Release Date: October 15, 2025 - Research Department: Zhongyuan Futures Research and Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with multiple factors influencing various markets. The Chinese economy shows signs of recovery, but concerns remain due to external trade frictions and internal structural adjustments. Different commodity markets have distinct supply - demand dynamics and price trends, and the stock market is expected to be in a state of high - level volatility in the fourth quarter [5][6][7][16] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Macro News - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem. China also took counter - measures against South Korea's Hanwha Ocean's US subsidiaries in response to US trade investigations [5] - The Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a potential 25 - basis - point rate cut this month. The Chinese central bank aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [6] - US grain shipments to China have significantly declined, with potential losses for US soybean exports. Chinese authorities launched investigations on the shipping and shipbuilding industries and emphasized measures to stabilize industrial growth [6][7] - National enterprise sales revenue has shown a steady upward trend, and tax revenue has been growing positively since February [7] 3.2 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemical Industry**: On October 15, most chemical futures contracts showed price declines. For example, coking coal dropped by 0.867%, coke by 1.360%, and PTA by 0.766%. Only 20 - numbered rubber, methanol, paper pulp, LPG, and РХ showed price increases [3] - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products had price increases, such as yellow soybean No. 1 (0.784%), yellow soybean No. 2 (0.390%), and soybean meal (0.448%), while others like rapeseed oil (- 0.412%) and palm oil (- 0.107%) declined [3] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On October 14, peanut futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. Supply has regional differences, and the current price is near the lower edge of the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the new - grain listing rhythm [10] - **Sugar**: On October 14, sugar futures fell below the key support level. Brazilian sugar supply is increasing, and domestic northern sugar mills are starting production with low inventory. It is advisable to wait and watch, focusing on Brazilian crushing data and domestic production progress [10] - **Corn**: On October 14, corn futures showed a weakening trend. Supply pressure from new grain listing is dominant, and it is expected to continue its weak trend. Attention should be paid to the support range of 2050 - 2080 yuan [10] - **Pigs**: The pig market is under pressure due to concentrated post - festival supply and reduced consumption. It is in a state of deep loss and is expected to continue weakening [10] - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is slightly increasing in the short term. Futures can consider a small - volume long - position in the far - month contract and a calendar spread strategy [10][12] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea price has a slight increase. Supply is affected by some enterprise maintenance, and demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender on the 15th [11][12] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. Supply is supported by enterprise production reduction and maintenance, but demand lacks impetus. The 2601 contract is under pressure [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices are stable, but steel mills' demand is weakening. They are expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [12] 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: After China's trade counter - measures, the US has shown a willingness to ease tensions, and market sentiment has improved. However, aluminum inventory has increased, and there is pressure on the premium. Short - term price corrections should be noted [12][13] - **Alumina**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The 2601 contract is running weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are weakening. Terminal demand is poor after the festival, and inventory is accumulating slightly. Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [13] - **Ferroalloys**: The black - series is weak, and double - silicon is under pressure. Cost support has weakened, and the short - term trend is bearish [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On October 14, the futures price slightly increased. Supply has growth potential, and demand is mixed. Attention should be paid to the 74400 - yuan pressure level [13][14] 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On October 14, A - share indices declined. The stock market is affected by trade frictions and Fed policies. Trend investors can consider low - buying when the index stabilizes, and volatility investors can consider long - volatility strategies [14][16]