Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rebound, which was in line with the daily report's bottoming - out judgment. The far - month contracts were stronger. It was recommended to control risks by holding an empty position during the holiday and set stop - losses [2]. - The core issue was the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract might be in the bottoming - out process. It was recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - The main contract remained weak in the short - term, while the far - month contracts were stronger, which was in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - preferring investors were advised to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - As of September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [3]. - As of September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service industry PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in September was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. 3.3 Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continued, and the negotiation had no substantial progress. The tariff war had gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price decreased slightly. The core issue was the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract might be in the bottoming - out process [4]. - On September 26, the main contract 2510 closed at 1139.0, down 1.86%. The trading volume was 22,000 lots, and the open interest was 32,400 lots, a decrease of 3095 lots from the previous day [4]. - Although liner companies announced a freight rate increase in late October, there were doubts about the implementation of the increase. Under the long - short game in the market, the price fluctuated widely and declined. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract remained weak, and the far - month contracts were stronger, in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - preferring investors were advised to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still followed the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: For each contract, it was recommended to take profits when the price rose, wait for the price to stabilize after a correction, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. 3.6 Geopolitical News - On September 27, local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) was reported to have agreed to a Gaza cease - fire plan proposed by the US, but Hamas had not yet commented on the report. - On September 26, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defended Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip and multiple Middle Eastern countries at the UN General Assembly, and his speech was protested by many parties [6].

Price Trends - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for Europe route is at 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period[3] - Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index is at 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period[3] - SCFIS for the US West route is at 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period[3] - NCFI for the US West route is at 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period[3] Economic Indicators - Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 50.5, above the expected 49.5 and previous 49.8[4] - Eurozone August Services PMI preliminary value is 50.7, slightly below the expected 50.8 and previous 51[4] - Eurozone August Composite PMI preliminary value rises to 51.1, the highest since May 2024, improving for three consecutive months[4] Market Strategy - It is advised not to increase positions and to set stop-loss orders due to significant price fluctuations in the market[2] - The main contract closed at 1173.0 with a rise of 3.99% on September 25, with a trading volume of 389,000 lots[5] - The market is currently in a bottoming process, suggesting a cautious approach to trading and monitoring future price movements[5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - MSK announced a price increase for late - October freight rates, causing the market to rise significantly. However, it is not recommended to add more positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [5]. - In the short - term, the main contract remains weak, and far - month contracts are stronger. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Do not hold positions stubbornly and set stop - losses. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the pull - back to stabilize before making further judgments [5]. 3. Content Summaries 3.1 Freight Indexes - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [3]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [3]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; for the US - West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [3]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than expected [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. 3.3 Market and Strategy - On September 25, the main contract 2510 closed at 1173.0, up 3.99%, with a trading volume of 3.89 million lots and an open interest of 3.55 million lots, a decrease of 5414 lots from the previous day [5]. - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and far - month contracts are strong. Stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Pay attention to the market trend, do not hold positions stubbornly, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international instability, each contract maintains seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [5]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the pull - back to stabilize before making further judgments [5]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Sino - US tariff issue continues to be postponed, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [5]. - The Houthi armed forces launched a drone attack on Israel on September 24, causing at least 22 people to be injured [6]. - The Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. issued an action plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 - 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amidst the long - short game, the market is in the bottom - building process. It's not advisable to increase positions further, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices has boosted the sentiment of long - positions to some extent, but the market pulled back after the morning surge due to capital withdrawal, showing a generally strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1198.21 points on September 19, down 199.90 points from the previous period. Its European - line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; the US - West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase. The trading volume was 24,680 lots, and the open interest was 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. It's recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has made no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [5]. - The United Nations investigation committee stated on September 23 that the Israeli government intends to establish permanent control over the Gaza Strip and ensure a Jewish majority in the occupied West Bank. In July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - On September 24, the Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. issued a plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 to 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a bottom - building process under the game of long and short positions. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. The core issue is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be at the bottom - building stage. It is advisable to participate with a light position or just observe [1][3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; for the US - West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase, a trading volume of 24,680 lots, and an open interest of 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices may have boosted the bullish sentiment, but the market pulled back after rising due to capital withdrawal in the afternoon, showing a strong - side volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and far - month contracts are strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when prices rise for each contract, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The extension of Sino - US tariffs has shown a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, and the ship and crew were safe [5]. - The United Nations stated that Israel intends to permanently control the Gaza Strip, and in July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - The Ministry of Transport and other departments issued an action plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 - 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [4] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [4] - Offset paper: Bearish [4] - Edible oils: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Hold for observation [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: Hold for observation [9] - PR: Hold for observation [9] - PF: Bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus after the National Day will gradually shift to the reality. The fundamentals of various commodities have different characteristics, and their prices will show different trends under the influence of supply, demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the financial market, the stock index and bond market are affected by policies and economic data, showing a volatile trend. The price of precious metals is driven by factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Overseas supply has declined slightly, but the arrival volume at 47 ports has increased. The demand has rebounded, and the steel mills' profit ratio has declined. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the contract is undergoing a high-level adjustment [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The coal mine shutdown news and the "anti-involution" expectation have promoted the rebound of the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is expected to be weaker than last year, and the demand has rebounded. The double-coke shows an oscillating and bullish trend [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The production of finished products has declined slightly, the supply remains relatively high, the apparent demand has increased slightly, and the inventory pressure has continued to increase. The total demand is difficult to show a counter-seasonal performance, and the price is oscillating [2]. - **Glass**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has called on the industry to raise prices, and the short-term price increase may drive downstream restocking. The supply is stable, the demand has improved slightly, and the price is oscillating and bullish before the festival [2]. - **Soda ash**: The price is adjusting, and the long-term real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is oscillating. The State Council Premier's speech and the Ministry of Commerce's statement have an impact on the market. It is recommended to control risk preferences and maintain the current position of long stock index [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market interest rate is fluctuating, and the bond trend is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies drive the price. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish [3]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume has decreased, the supply is tight, the cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to range-bound [4]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable, the cost support has increased, the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4]. - **Offset paper**: The production is relatively stable, the demand is in the off-season, the supply-demand contradiction is prominent, and the price is bearish [4]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Edible oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, the inventory has increased, the export is weak, the demand for soybean oil is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [4]. - **Meal**: The yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, the domestic supply pressure is significant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [4]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight has increased, the supply is abundant, the demand is weak, the price is oscillating and bullish in the short term, and the slaughter rate is expected to decline and then stabilize [6]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply pressure has decreased, the demand has improved, the inventory has declined, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX**: There are potential supply risks, the supply-demand margin has improved slightly, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The cost provides support, the supply and demand have both increased, and the price follows the cost [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased slightly, the supply pressure has increased, and the price is affected by the cost [9]. - **PR**: The cost has increased, the supply has decreased, and the market trading atmosphere may be limited [9]. - **PF**: The factory inventory is not high, the international oil price has risen, and the market is expected to be bullish [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate is continuously falling, the bullish sentiment has subsided, and the market has declined again. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not advisable to hold positions stubbornly [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic, with large fluctuations. The core of the movement is the trend of the spot freight rate. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index Changes - On September 22, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 13.24% to 783.71 points, the SCFIS (European route) dropped 12.9% to 1254.92 points, the NCFI (European route) dropped 7.65% to 673.61 points, the SCFIS (US West route) dropped 11.6% to 1193.64 points, and the NCFI (US West route) dropped 23.30% to 944.89 points [3]. - On September 19, compared with the previous period, the SCFl announced price dropped 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, the CCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 2.1% to 1125.30 points, the SCFI European route price dropped 8.8% to 1052 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) dropped 6.2% to 1537.28 points, the SCFI US West route dropped 31.0% to 1636 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US West route) dropped 2.2% to 757.45 points [3]. Economic Data - In August, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI initial value rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, reaching the highest level since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In August, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [4]. Market and Contract Information - On September 23, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 28,500 lots and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23, local time, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reported that a ship heard an explosion about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen. The ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine. Since the new round of the Israel - Palestine conflict in October 2023, Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip have caused more than 60,000 Palestinian deaths, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating bullish [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillating [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: Bullish [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillating [5] - Pulp: Bottom - range consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating bullish [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On - the - sidelines [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: On - the - sidelines [11] - PR: On - the - sidelines [11] - PF: On - the - sidelines [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as scheduled. After the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Market sentiment is affected by various factors such as policies, international relations, and economic data. It is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current position for stock index long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas supply has slightly declined, but the global shipping volume is still at a high level in recent years. The arrival volume at 47 ports has increased. The daily average pig iron output has rebounded, driving up demand. Steel mills' profit ratio has declined, but the motivation for active production cuts is still insufficient. The iron ore 2601 contract is adjusting at a high level [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The suspension news from coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti - involution" have pushed up the double - coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season has boosted demand. Some coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase [2]. - **Rebar and coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine suspension news have affected the market. The output of finished products has slightly decreased, but the supply remains high. The apparent demand for five major steel products has slightly increased, but the inventory pressure continues to rise. The real estate investment continues to decline, and the overall demand is weak. The cost increase has driven up the price of finished products, and the rebar 2601 contract is oscillating bullishly in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The supply is stable, and the demand has limited growth. The downstream deep - processing factory orders have slightly improved. The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect the production cost. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold - repair path [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. There was capital inflow in the banking and precious metals sectors and outflow in the catering, tourism, and education sectors. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current long - position for stock indexes [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased by 1bp. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The US debt problem, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks affect the price. The Fed's interest rate cut and geopolitical risks support the bullish trend of gold and silver [4]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume at ports has decreased. The arrival volume from New Zealand has declined, and the cost support has weakened. The spot price is stable, and the futures delivery willingness has increased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has strengthened, but the demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - **Double - gum paper**: The production is relatively stable, but it is in the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and it should be treated bearishly [5]. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the inventory has risen. The export is weak. The US bio - fuel policy is controversial. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean oil has increased. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [5][6]. - **Meals**: The yield of US soybeans has been adjusted, and the export demand is weak. The domestic supply pressure is significant, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs may continue to rise slightly. The supply is abundant, the demand from the terminal market is weak, and the slaughter price has declined. The slaughter rate is expected to decline and then stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short term [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the cost in Hainan has decreased. The demand from tire enterprises has increased, and the inventory has declined. The price is expected to oscillate widely [11]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX has potential supply risks; PTA's supply and demand have both increased, but the marginal supply - demand has weakened; MEG's supply pressure has increased; PR and PF are affected by geopolitical and cost factors. The market trends are complex, and some are recommended to be observed on the sidelines [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the bullish sentiment has faded. The market is weakening, and it is not recommended to add more positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Tariff issues have a marginal effect. In the short - term, wait for the market to bottom; in the long - term, take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [4]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Indexes - From September 19th to 22nd, multiple freight rate indexes declined. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped 13.24%, the SCFIS (European route) fell 12.9%, and the NCFI (US West route) decreased 23.30% [3]. Economic Data - In August, the manufacturing PMI in China was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI all showed improvement. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - The US August manufacturing and services PMI data were better than expected [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop loss on long positions and wait for the bottoming opportunity. Do not hold positions stubbornly and set stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to temporarily observe or participate with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. Market Conditions - On September 23rd, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 28,500 lots, and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4,522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23rd, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].