Group 1: Stock and Bond - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2] - Market interest rates are consolidating, Treasury bonds are rebounding narrowly, and it is advisable to hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] Group 2: Coal and Steel - Some shut - down coal mines in Linfen will resume production one after another. Under the "anti - involution", the supply of finished steel is expected to shrink, the futures market rebounds, and raw materials follow the upward trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policies and demand follow - up [3] Group 3: Gold - Trump extends the tariff suspension period, and the proposed tax rate increase triggers a resurgence of market risk aversion. The market postpones the earliest time for the Fed to cut interest rates to October. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes this week. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation [3] Group 4: Logs - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will shift down, the supply pressure will ease, the average daily outbound volume remains at about 67,000 cubic meters, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [3] Group 5: Natural Rubber - The weather in Southeast Asian producing areas is improving, rubber tapping work is gradually resuming. The demand for glue series is dragging down, showing a divergence from the price of raw material cup lumps. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is declining. The supply - demand contradiction at both ends has not been significantly alleviated, and the price of natural rubber continues to be under pressure [4] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The estimated planting area of US soybeans is only slightly reduced, the continuous improvement of weather in the US Midwest boosts the soybean production outlook, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest and continue to be exported. About 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July, the oil mill operating rate remains high, the提货量 of oil mills has declined, the bean meal inventory has risen rapidly, and bean meal is in a weak and volatile state [5] Group 7: Oil - related Products - Against the background of geopolitical easing and production increase, oil prices still lack strong positive factors. PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA's supply - demand outlook weakens and it follows cost fluctuations in the short term; MEG's supply - demand weakens and the futures market is under pressure [6] Group 8: Live Pigs - Currently, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding end is strong, the shipment of live pigs in many northern regions is smooth, and the pig price may continue to rise in the short term. After entering July, the supply of live pigs in the south is expected to be tight, which may take over from the north and lead a new round of price increases [7]

2025年7月7日 星期一 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿将陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应有望收缩,盘面 迎来反弹,原料跟涨,关注政策的具体文件落地以及需求跟进情况。 黄金 油粗 美豆种植面积预估仅下调有限,美中西部天气持续改善提振大豆产量前景, 南美大豆丰产持续出口。7月份进口大豆到港约1000万吨,油厂开机率维持高 位,油厂提货量高位,豆粕库存快速攀升,豆粕短期偏震荡。 譯張 CPEC+加大增产力度施压油价,PX持续去库,跟随油价波动;PTA供需预期转 弱,短期跟随成本波动;MEC供需趋弱,盘面承压。 生猪 市场对美联储降息预期下降,最早降息时间可能推至10月,关注本周美联储 会议纪要:大而美法案通过. 加之7月9日贸易关税暂停最后期限临近,特朗 普关税信函增加市场不确定性,避险情绪回升。预计黄金维持高位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环增,供应压力回升,日均出库量维持在6 万方以上,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货首次交割对原木价格的影响。 橡胶 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000: Uptrend [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Palm oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillation [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [9] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply - side reform news and production resumption, with the supply expected to increase and the demand to weaken [2]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil market rebounds due to production reduction policy speculation and supply - side reform news, but the overall demand is weak [2]. - The glass market has no substantial positive factors, with inventory at a high level and demand expected to weaken [2]. - The stock index futures and options market shows different trends among different indices, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices considering economic resilience and reduced market risk aversion [2][4]. - The Treasury bond market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The precious metals market, especially gold, is affected by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies, and is expected to remain in high - level oscillation [4]. - The pulp and log markets show different supply - demand situations, with pulp having a supply - demand double - weak pattern and logs having increasing supply pressure [5]. - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as production, export policies, and supply - demand relationships, and is expected to be in high - level oscillation [5]. - The soybean meal and related products market is affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and trade relations, and is expected to be in an oscillatory state [7]. - The live pig market has a short - term upward trend due to supply - side factors and increased downstream demand [7]. - The rubber market is affected by supply - side weather conditions and demand - side capacity utilization, and is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend [9]. - The polyester - related product market has different trends, with some products following cost fluctuations and some facing supply - demand changes [9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The recent price is affected by sentiment. The global shipment and arrival volume have declined but are still at a high level in recent years. There is an expectation of increased shipment later, and the port inventory is in the process of destocking. In the medium - and long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by supply - side reform news and production resumption, the supply is expected to increase. The coke price is under pressure from steel mills, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased [2]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Due to production reduction policy speculation and supply - side reform news, the supply is expected to shrink, and the price rebounds. However, the overall demand is weak, and the total demand is difficult to show an inverse - seasonal performance [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial positive factor, with high inventory and expected weakening demand. The short - term valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by sentiment [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: Different indices show different trends. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors are different. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices considering economic resilience and reduced market risk aversion [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Affected by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, trade policies, and geopolitical risks, the gold market is expected to remain in high - level oscillation, and the price of silver is also in a high - level oscillatory state [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost support weakens, the demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern is double - weak. The price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Logs**: The arrival volume is expected to increase, the supply pressure rises, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery [5]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: Affected by production, export policies, and supply - demand relationships, the inventory continues to rise, and the market is expected to be in high - level oscillation [5]. Oilseeds and Meals - **Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, No. 2 soybeans, and No. 1 soybeans**: Affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and trade relations, the market is expected to be in an oscillatory state, and different products have different influencing factors [7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply - side support is strong, the downstream demand increases, and the price is expected to continue rising [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by supply - side weather conditions and demand - side capacity utilization, the inventory shows different trends, and the price is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend [9]. Polyester Products - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: Different products have different supply - demand situations. Some follow cost fluctuations, some face supply - demand weakening, and some are affected by downstream inventory and raw material prices, with corresponding trading suggestions [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: July 7, 2025 [1] - Report type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research group: Shipping Research Group Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts, the market has high complexity and uncertainty, with multiple long - and short - term factors intertwined, making it difficult to predict. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - The short - term market may rebound, and it is advised to stop losses on short positions. Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 with stop - loss and take - profit set [5] - In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [5] - For long - term strategies, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction [5] Group 4: Market Information Freight Index - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [3] - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.5 points, unchanged from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.3% from the previous period [3] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% from the previous period [3] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [3] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May and the same as April, back above the critical point [3] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [3] Market News - The US claims that new tariffs will be imposed starting in August, and the Houthi rebels attacked merchant ships again [2] - Hamas is consulting on a cease - fire proposal for the Gaza Strip, and the US and Israel had a long - term discussion on the Gaza situation, with Israel agreeing to the necessary conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire agreement [6] - US trade data in May showed that imports and exports both shrank, and the trade deficit widened further. The import of consumer goods decreased by $4 billion, and the export of industrial supplies and raw materials declined significantly, with overall exports down 4% [6] Group 5: Contract Information - On July 4, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1849.9, down 1.71%, with a trading volume of 47,800 lots and an open interest of 36,400 lots, an increase of 431 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, the difficulty of trading is high. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has been passed, and attention should be paid to whether US terminal consumption is boosted. With large fluctuations in commodities recently, the European line has strong macro - attributes, and the difficulty of trading is high. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price support. The Trump administration does not plan to extend the tariff negotiation period, and the spot market price range is set, with small price increases to test the market and a small rebound in the futures market. The Middle East situation shows signs of easing, the spot freight rate changes slightly, and the market is full of mixed long - and short - term information, with intense trading and wide - range fluctuations in the futures market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period. On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In June, the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous value 49.4), the added value of the service - industry PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7), the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous value 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous value - 8.1) [2]. - **China**: The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - **US**: In June, the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February); the preliminary value of the service - industry PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. 3.3 Futures Market - **July 3, 2508 Contract**: The closing price was 1896.9, with a gain of 0.11%, the trading volume was 28,500 lots, and the open interest was 35,900 lots, a decrease of 388 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term futures market is expected to rebound. It is recommended to lightly short the 2508 contract when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points), and consider taking profits on short positions. For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly go long on the 2510 contract below 1300, and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. - **Circuit Breaker and Margin Adjustment**: The circuit breaker for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, and the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Rebound [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Composite 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Palm Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [8] - Rubber: Rebound [10] - PX: Wait - and - See [10] - PTA: Try Shorting at Highs [10] - MEG: Try Shorting at Highs [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a pattern of gradually increasing supply, relatively low demand, and an entry into the inventory accumulation stage. In the short term, due to emotional disturbances, it's recommended to exit previous short positions and wait and see. For coking coal and coke, with potential supply increases and uncertain demand, attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply. The steel products market has a complex supply - demand situation, with short - term rebounds affected by policies and seasonal factors. The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, and its demand is difficult to recover significantly. The financial market is affected by factors such as policy support for infrastructure projects, economic data, and interest rate policies, with different trends for various stock indices and bonds. The precious metals market, especially gold, is influenced by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, maintaining a high - level oscillation. The light industry and agricultural products markets have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, such as the pulp market being in a situation of weak supply and demand, the live pig market expected to rise, and the rubber market having a wide - range oscillation [2][4][6][8][10]. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recently, the iron ore futures price has risen due to emotional factors. Although the global shipping volume and arrival volume have both declined this period, they are still at relatively high levels in recent years. There is an expectation of increased shipping volume later, and the arrival pressure may increase. During the industrial off - season, the output of five major steel products has increased, and the hot metal output is strong. The port inventory is still decreasing. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It's recommended to exit previous short positions and wait and see [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, the prices of black products have risen, and raw materials have followed. There are rumors of some coke enterprises and coal mines resuming production, and the supply is expected to increase. The steel mills are suppressing coke prices, the profit of coke enterprises has shrunk, and the inventory pressure has increased. Attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Due to rumors of production reduction policies in Tangshan and supply - side reform news, the futures price has rebounded. In the off - season, the building materials demand has slightly increased, the output of five major steel products has continued to rise, and the total steel inventory is flat. However, the total demand is difficult to show an inverse - seasonal performance [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial positive factor in the glass fundamentals. The speculative sentiment in the Shahe area has been reignited. To achieve seasonal inventory reduction, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced below 154,000 tons. With the arrival of the rainy season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level in the past two years. In the long - term, the glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.62%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose by 0.07%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.53%. Funds flowed into the electronic components and pharmaceutical sectors and out of the coal and energy equipment sectors. With policy support for infrastructure projects and the issuance of special bonds, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate. It's recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, and there was a large - scale net withdrawal of funds on that day. The market interest rate was consolidating, and the bond prices rebounded slightly. It's recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: In the context of high - interest rates and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. Central bank purchases are the key factor, and gold's various attributes are affected by different factors such as debt problems, interest rates, and geopolitical risks. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price has decreased, and the support for pulp prices has weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off - season. The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, and the futures first - delivery has boosted market activity. The supply pressure is expected to increase with the increase in arrival volume, but the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of the first - delivery on prices [6]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia has increased for three consecutive months. With the reduction of export tariffs, the export momentum is expected to continue. The demand for soybean oil and its upstream raw materials is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand, the prices of three major oils are expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - **Meal Products**: The soybean planting area in the US has decreased slightly, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has improved. With the high - yield of South American soybeans and large - scale imports in China, the soybean meal market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply side shows strong price - holding sentiment in the northern region, and the pig price is expected to continue rising. In the southern region, the supply is expected to be tight in July. The average trading weight of live pigs has decreased, and the slaughter enterprise's purchase strategy has changed. The pig price is expected to continue rising [8]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: On the supply side, the raw material supply is tight due to rainfall in major rubber - producing areas. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of the tire industry has a structural rise. The inventory situation is complex, and the rubber price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX prices follow oil prices, with a short - term tight supply - demand pattern. PTA's supply - demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term, and its price follows cost fluctuations. MEG's supply - demand is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. PR and PF markets have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, with different trading outlooks [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - With geopolitical conflicts, the game in the shipping market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [2][3]. - In the short - term, without an obvious turn in the fundamentals, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies; for the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction to determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summary by Content Market News - The US - Vietnam trade agreement may impose a 20% tariff on re - export trade, and all short positions have been recommended to stop losses [2]. - As the July 9 deadline for EU - US trade negotiations approaches, EU member states' negotiation stance towards the US has hardened, demanding the US to cancel or significantly reduce tariffs [5]. - Egypt's foreign minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with relevant parties [6]. Freight Indexes - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% [2]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on June 27 showed that the European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on June 27: the composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9%; the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2 [2]. - The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in the Eurozone in June was 0.2 [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May [2]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [2]. Market Conditions - On July 2, the main contract 2508 closed at 1883.5, up 1.67%, with a trading volume of 44,200 lots and an open interest of 36,300 lots, a decrease of 4141 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious turn in the fundamentals, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies. For the 2508 contract, short positions can be considered for profit - taking when it rebounds above 2000. Risk - takers can try going long on the 2510 contract below 1300, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction to determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4].

交易提示 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-3） | 铁矿：近期铁矿石现货价格偏弱，盘面受情绪影响拉涨，基差继续收窄。 | 本期全球铁矿石发运总量、到港量双双下滑，但整体处于近年来同期高位 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水平，后期铁矿发运有冲量预期，到港压力或增大。产业端淡季，五大钢 | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，240 | 以上的高铁水 | | | | | | | | | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山 | 限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中长期看，铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步 | | | | | | | | | | | | 回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，铁矿供需过剩格局 | 不变，介于短期情绪扰动，建议前期空单离场观望。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | 煤焦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Due to port congestion and shipping companies' intention to raise price centers in late July, short positions can consider full profit - taking. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][3]. - The overall supply - demand situation has not changed significantly, but the SCFIS has continued to rise. The market should pay attention to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May and higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7 and higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53 and higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Strategy - On July 1, the main contract 2508 closed at 1904.9, up 7.80%, with a trading volume of 68,800 lots and an open interest of 40,500 lots, an increase of 1248 lots from the previous day [3]. - Short - term strategy: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points). Short positions can consider taking profits. For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to try long positions lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 and set stop - losses and take - profits [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%; the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%; the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. 3.4 Geopolitical Events - According to the Associated Press on June 29, US President Trump said he had no intention of extending the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions beyond July 9. Once the negotiation period expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [5]. - On June 30, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the Egyptian Foreign Minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with the Director - General of the International Atomic Energy Agency [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating, with a long - term view of oscillating on the downside [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Rebounding [2] - Glass: Oscillating on the downside [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Uptrending [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Uptrending [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillating [4] - Silver: High - level oscillating [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean Oil: High - level oscillating [6] - Palm Oil: High - level oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Oil: High - level oscillating [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating on the downside [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating on the downside [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating on the downside [6][8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating on the downside [6] - Live Pigs: Rebounding [8] - Rubber: Rebounding [11] - PX: On the sidelines [11] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [11] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The overall iron ore market shows a pattern of gradually increasing supply, relatively low demand, and port inventories entering the accumulation phase, remaining in an oversupplied situation [2] - The coking coal and coke market may experience a weak adjustment, with attention paid to the trends of hot metal and the supply side of coking coal and coke [2] - The supply of rolled steel and rebar is expected to contract, and the overall demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance, with a pattern of high in the front and low in the back [2] - The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, and the price is under pressure due to weak reality [2] - The stock index market shows different trends, and with the improvement of economic data, it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - The bond market is in a state of narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4] - The gold market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to cost and demand factors [6] - The log market has relatively balanced supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate on the downside, and attention should be paid to North American weather, soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [6] - The live pig market is expected to continue to rise, with the southern market potentially leading the next round of price increases [8] - The rubber market is in a state of supply - demand adjustment, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [11] - The polyester market shows different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [11] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recently, the spot trading of iron ore has been weak, and the basis has continued to narrow. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have both declined but are still at a high level in recent years. There is an expectation of an increase in shipments later, and the arrival pressure may increase. During the off - season in the industry, the production of five major steel products has increased, and the hot metal production has remained high. The port inventory of iron ore is still being depleted, but under the speculation of production - reduction policies, the demand for iron ore is expected to decrease. In the long term, the supply of iron ore is gradually increasing, the demand is relatively low, and the port inventory is entering the accumulation phase [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are rumors that some coking enterprises and coal mines may resume production, and the coking coal and coke market may experience a weak adjustment. The steel mills have suppressed the price of coke, and the fourth round of price cuts has been implemented. The downstream demand has weakened, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased. Under the speculation of production - reduction policies, the demand for hot metal is expected to decrease [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Under the speculation of production - reduction policies, the supply of finished steel is expected to contract, and the market has rebounded. In the off - season, the demand for building materials has weakened, the production of five major steel products has continued to rise, the total steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise, and the apparent demand has slightly declined. The overall demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance [2] - **Glass**: There is no substantial positive factor in the glass market, and the speculative sentiment in the Shahe area has been reignited. The production line has both ignition and water - release situations. To meet the seasonal inventory depletion of glass, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to below 154,000 tons. During the rainy season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years. In the long term, the demand for glass is difficult to increase significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day showed different trends for different stock indices. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors were different. The central government emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June rebounded, indicating the resilience of the economy, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds remained flat, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The market interest rate was in a state of consolidation, and the bond market showed a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4] - **Precious Metals**: The gold market is affected by multiple factors such as the central bank's gold - buying behavior, interest rate policies, tariff policies, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation. The silver market is also affected by similar factors, and attention should be paid to the release of inflation data [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has continued to be weak, and the cost support has weakened. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the pulp price will oscillate weakly [6] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs at the port has increased, and the first log futures delivery has driven the activity of the spot market. The arrival volume is expected to increase, and the supply pressure has rebounded. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery on the price [6] Oil, Fat, and Feed Industry - **Oils and Fats**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil in May were higher than expected, and the inventory has increased for three consecutive months. The export of palm oil is expected to remain strong, and the demand for soybean oil and its upstream raw materials is expected to increase. However, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the oil and fat market will oscillate at a high level [6] - **Meals**: The soybean planting area in the United States in 2025 is slightly lower than the intention in March, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has improved. The South American soybean harvest is abundant, and the domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be high. It is expected that the meal market will oscillate on the downside [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Currently, the pig - raising end has a strong sentiment of holding back prices, and the pig price in the north is expected to continue to rise. The southern market is expected to experience a supply shortage in July and may lead the next round of price increases. The average trading weight of live pigs has decreased, and the slaughter volume has increased. It is expected that the pig price will continue to rise [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: On the supply side, the natural rubber production areas are affected by rainfall, and the raw material supply is tight. On the demand side, the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has shown a structural rebound, but it is still restricted by market demand. The inventory situation is complex, and it is expected that the rubber price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [11] - **Polyester Products**: Different polyester products have different trends. PX is expected to follow the oil price, PTA is recommended to try shorting on rallies, MEG is also recommended to try shorting on rallies, PR may oscillate weakly, and PF is expected to oscillate and consolidate [11]