Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the spot freight rates on European routes continued to decline. However, with shipping companies announcing cancellations during the National Day holiday and price increases for mid - to late - October, the bullish sentiment was boosted to some extent, and the futures market fluctuated widely. The overall cargo volume in the market was low, and shipping companies continued to strengthen their efforts to attract cargo to maintain the loading rate of routes. Freight rates on routes such as Europe and North America continued to decline, while the futures market was supported by optimistic sentiment, so the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed rapidly [2]. - As of the end of September, the three - week average of the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) was 1,271.88 points, a month - on - month decrease of 40.43%. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) for European routes in September was 1,123/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 37.48%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,913.75/TEU, a month - on - month increase of 4.35%. The average value of the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for European routes in September was 718.28/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 38.42%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,091.90/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71% [3]. - The trading strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1,600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - In October, the booking freight rates in the spot market are expected to continue to decline, and the decline is significant. The SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index has continued to decline sharply. Shipping companies have also continuously lowered their quotes for European routes from late September to October. Therefore, the EC2510 futures price has further declined to a lower level. The basis between futures and spot prices continues to narrow, and it is expected that the month - on - month decline of the SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index next week will reach about 8%, while the EC2510 futures price is expected to have a small further downward space at the bottom [3]. - Future contradictions include: whether the price increases announced by shipping companies for mid - to late - October can be implemented under weak demand is still in question; the Middle East situation remains volatile, but its overall impact on the futures market is gradually decreasing [4]. - On the demand side, the overall demand in the eurozone remains weak. The European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates in the eurozone unchanged. The consumer price inflation in the eurozone remained stable in August, indicating that the European Central Bank can postpone further interest rate cuts to later this year if necessary. The year - on - year final value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August was 8.0%, the same as in July, slightly lower than the expected 2.1% increase, indicating that the recent price pressure in the eurozone is moderate, and demand is neither overheating nor in deflation [4]. - On the supply side, the overall supply of capacity on the Asia - Europe route exceeds demand. Although shipping companies have reduced capacity during and around the holiday according to previous years' practices, the overall market capacity scale is still significantly higher than the same period last year. Therefore, although the market will experience a short - term shortage of capacity after the holiday, it is expected to remain in a loose state overall [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In early September, the futures market rose rapidly, possibly affected by some shipping companies' announcements of cancellations during the National Day holiday and the renewed tension in the Middle East situation. In the middle of the month, as shipping companies continuously lowered spot freight rates and relevant indices continued to decline significantly, the futures market quickly fell. In the late month, although the SCFIS and other relevant indices continued to decline, the futures market rebounded slightly and then fluctuated after the China - US economic and trade talks and shipping companies' announcements of price increases for mid - to late - October [6]. Supply - Demand Analysis of Container Shipping Supply Side - **Capacity Situation**: Recently, although shipping companies on the Asia - Europe route have tried to control capacity through blank sailings, the overall scale of cancellations is lower than in previous years, and the actual capacity supply remains sufficient. Shipping companies are actively attracting cargo to improve the loading rate. However, the global container ship order volume has reached 10.4 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the existing capacity, and the scrapping volume is at a low level, indicating significant pressure from the continuous release of new capacity. The supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, the over - capacity situation has not been effectively alleviated, and market freight rates are still under pressure [12]. - **Port Situation**: The operating conditions of major ports in China have shown signs of improvement compared with last month. Although the throughput of Shanghai Port has continued to decline slightly, the throughput of Ningbo Port has increased rapidly. The port congestion situation has not improved, and the global on - time performance rate has continued to decline [19]. Demand Side - **China's Foreign Trade**: As of July 2025, China's cumulative export volume reached 2.130363 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.10%, and the cumulative import volume reached 1.446849 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. Among them, the cumulative export to the EU was 317.418 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the EU was 149.191 billion yuan. The cumulative export to the US was 251.372 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the US was 85.851 billion yuan. In July, among China's "new three" exports, except for the increase in the growth rate of electric vehicles compared with the same period in 2024, the others still decreased. Compared with the same period in 2024, China's exports to the EU have increased steadily, while imports have decreased year - on - year. China's trade with the US has been mainly affected by continuous US tariffs, and both imports and exports have continued to decline compared with the same period [29]. - **Foreign Trade in Europe and the US**: The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line again, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations of 50.5. The preliminary value of the eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [31]. - The online quotes of ONE for the first ten - day period of October have been further adjusted downward to $1,235/FEU, and other shipping companies have also maintained a low level of $1,400/FEU. However, shipping companies have announced price increase plans for after mid - October, and it is currently announced that the price will rise to around $2,000/FEU. Whether the price increase can be implemented depends on the post - holiday loading situation. At the same time, the price increase situation will also affect the medium - to long - term freight rate level, and there is still uncertainty in the market [33]. Summary No relevant content provided other than the above - mentioned information in the summary section.

新世纪期货铁矿月报 商品研究|铁矿月报 黑色产业链组 电话：0571-85103057 邮编：310000 地址：杭州市拱墅区万寿亭 13 号 网址 http://www.zjncf.com.cn 铁矿 2025.6 月月报——铁矿 石价格的"短多长空"：需求 淡季的市场逻辑 强运行 铁矿 2025.8 月月报——重要 10 月铁矿月报—— 供应端干扰，铁矿或先扬后抑 观点摘要： 库存： 目前钢厂利润收缩，高产量承压。铁矿石供应仍维持高位，需 求在钢材库存持续增加情况下有转弱预期，节前没有超额补库，关 注国庆节后成材库存去化情况。 铁矿 2025.7 月月报——"反 内卷"吹响号角，短期矿价偏 总结： 部分自媒体报道称因铁矿石定价争议升级，对禁止进口 BHP 等 矿山矿石的消息产生新的担忧，但中国钢厂并没有收到相关通知， 另外西芒杜事故也影响了市场情绪，后续关注供应端的实际影响情 况。钢厂盈利面有所走低，但依旧处于近年偏高水平，日均铁水产 量也维持在高位，短期很难看到负反馈，节后核心仍在钢材需求， 若十月钢材需求不及预期，从而钢材库存持续累积，钢价下跌带动 利润走低，导致钢厂减产进而形成负反馈。目前铁矿石交易 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to add positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Content Shipping Index Data - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 876.82 points, down 4.8% from the previous period. On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing boom level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities has accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's September composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's September Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. Market and Policy - Sino - US tariffs are extended, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, down 1.81%, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the situation in the India - Pakistan - Israel region signaled a relaxation. The market was affected, with strong bearish sentiment and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli troop withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes it will pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the illegal Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the early morning of October 9, the Israeli Defense Forces stated that they had evaluated the latest situation overnight. The IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and said that the army's deployment would be implemented according to political - level instructions and the requirements of relevant stages of the agreement [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and screw steel: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 300 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong - side volatile [4] - Silver: Strong - side volatile [4] - Logs: Range - bound volatile [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range volatile [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [8] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Views - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, and there is still support under short - term supply disruptions. The core of the post - holiday market lies in steel demand. If steel demand in October falls short of expectations, a negative feedback loop may form [2]. - In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to run steadily, with production lower than last year. Coke demand is strong, but the second - round price increase has basically failed. Coke prices follow coking coal, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - The static valuation of rebar is low, with supply pressure. Attention should be paid to demand recovery in October. The market may have a short - term replenishment rally, but the demand in the north will weaken. The RB2601 contract has support around 3000 yuan/ton [2]. - The glass market is boosted by news, with prices rising. Supply is stable, and there is short - term replenishment demand. In the long run, the real estate industry suppresses demand. The supply - demand relationship will improve if policies affect production [2]. - Stock index futures are generally optimistic, and long positions should be maintained. Treasury bonds are trending upward, and long positions should be held. Gold is expected to be strong - side volatile due to various factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [4]. - Logs are expected to trade in a range, with supply tightening and cost support. Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom due to cost support and weak demand. Double - offset paper prices are expected to be volatile, with stable supply and improving demand [6]. - Edible oils are in a wide - range volatile pattern, with different performances among varieties. Meal prices are expected to be volatile and bearish due to seasonal supply pressure and potential for Brazilian production increases. Live pig prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak demand [6][8]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile, with supply affected by weather and demand improving slightly. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF prices are affected by various factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, and their trends vary [10]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Post - holiday rebound is supported by supply - side news. Steel mill profitability is high, and daily hot - metal output is around 241 - 242 tons. The key lies in steel demand in October [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Domestic coking coal supply in October is stable but lower than last year. Coke demand is strong, the first - round price increase has been implemented, and the second - round increase has failed. Coke prices follow coking coal [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Screw Steel**: The static valuation of rebar is low, supply pressure is high, and attention should be paid to demand recovery in October. There may be a short - term replenishment rally, but northern demand will weaken [2]. - **Glass**: The market is boosted by news, supply is stable, there is short - term replenishment demand, and long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate industry [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Information not explicitly summarized separately, but related to the glass industry and market conditions [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is optimistic, with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices showing upward trends. Attention should be paid to policies such as price governance and rare - earth export controls [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is falling, and the market is trending upward. Long positions should be held [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to be strong - side volatile due to central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and other factors. Silver follows a similar trend [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply is tightening, cost support is increasing, and prices are expected to trade in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Cost supports prices, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: Supply is stable, demand is expected to improve, and prices are expected to be volatile [6] Agricultural Products and Oils - **Edible Oils**: Different varieties show different performances, with a wide - range volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean planting and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - **Meals**: Seasonal supply pressure and potential for Brazilian production increases make prices volatile and bearish [6][8]. - **Live Pigs**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to be volatile [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Prices are affected by oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, with different trends [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core View of the Report - The stock - bond market is optimistic about the upward trend. Maintain the current position for stock index long positions, and hold treasury bond long positions lightly as the treasury bond trend weakens due to market interest rate fluctuations [3] - The steel market runs steadily during the long - holiday. There may be a short - term price boost after the holiday, but demand improvement is limited [4] - The market expects a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October. Gold is expected to oscillate strongly due to risk - aversion sentiment [5] - The log spot market is strong. With expected weekly increase in arrivals and rising daily shipments, logs are expected to oscillate within a range [6] - Rubber prices are restricted by increased supply expectations and weakened cost support. Natural rubber will continue to oscillate weakly [7] - With large imports and high inventory of soybeans in October, the market for soybeans and soybean meal is expected to oscillate bearishly [8] - Oil prices are supported by supply risks. PX and PTA follow crude oil fluctuations, and MEG will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term with some fundamental support [9] Summary by Related Catalogs No relevant content

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Range oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Bean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, with short - term support under supply - side interference. The follow - up focus is on the actual impact on the supply side and October steel demand [2]. - In October, the supply of coking coal in China is expected to run stably, with limited increase. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and its trend follows coking coal. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - For rebar, the futures price has a low static valuation. The supply side may shrink, and the focus is on the demand recovery in October. The price needs to see rapid post - festival inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - The glass market has short - term support from the replenishment market, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The supply - demand is basically balanced, and the follow - up should pay attention to production and policy changes [2]. - The stock index market is volatile, with an optimistic upward outlook. Stock index long positions should maintain the current position, while Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - The logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. It is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. - Logs are expected to oscillate in a range, with supply - side pressure not significant and an increase in daily outbound volume [6]. - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom, affected by cost support and demand factors [6]. - The oil and fat market continues the range - oscillation pattern, with significant differentiation among varieties. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Bean meal prices are expected to move downward in the short term, affected by supply and demand factors such as new soybean listings and changes in Chinese demand [6][7]. - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [7]. - Natural rubber prices may show wide - range oscillation, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [9]. - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with different trends [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swaps rose slightly. There are new concerns about supply, and the short - term supply - side interference provides support. The follow - up core is steel demand in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, with production lower than last year. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, and the second - round basically failed. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it follows coking coal [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: During the long holiday, Tangshan billet prices were stable. Rebar futures have a low valuation, and the supply side may shrink. The focus is on demand recovery in October, and the price needs rapid post - festival de - stocking [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment was boosted by news, and prices rose. Supply was stable last week, and there was short - term support from replenishment. However, long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate adjustment [2]. - **Soda ash**: Although the report mentions it in the context, there is no specific in - depth analysis other than the overall "oscillation" rating [2]. Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is volatile. The overall upward outlook is optimistic, and stock index long positions should maintain the current position [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are volatile, and Treasury bond trends are weak. Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. The logic for the rise has not reversed, and it is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Port daily shipment volume increased, and supply is expected to be tight. The cost support is enhanced, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices fluctuated. Cost support is enhanced, but demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, and demand is expected to improve, but prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. There are differences among varieties, affected by factors such as Argentine exports, biodiesel, and seasonal production [6]. - **Bean meal, Rapeseed meal**: Although there is some support from US domestic demand, new soybean listings and Brazilian production potential bring supply pressure. Prices are expected to move downward [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is declining, and supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: Supply - side pressure in Yunnan has decreased, while Hainan's output is lower than expected. Demand has improved slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Prices may show wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. Their prices show different trends such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has been declining significantly, and with capital outflows, the market has been fluctuating widely. It is recommended to stay out of the market during the holiday to control risks and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2]. - The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to try going long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions [2]. - In the context of international instability, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for arbitrage strategies [2]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then make further judgments [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On September 29, SCFIS (European route) was 1120.49 points, down 10.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 921.25 points, down 22.8% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, NCFI (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, SCFI was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [2]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value 54.6) [2]. c. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and there has been no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has decreased slightly. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [2]. d. Contract Information - On September 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1115.0, with a decline of 3.11%, a trading volume of 1.67 million lots, and an open interest of 2.93 million lots, a decrease of 3117 lots from the previous day [2]. - The price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

Group 1: Black Industry - Investment Rating: Adjustment - Core View: After the National Day, the trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The supply - demand patterns of iron ore, coal - coke, and steel products face challenges, while glass has short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations and long - term industry adjustment pressures [2] - Directory Summary: - Iron Ore: Overseas supply is rising, and although demand is currently okay, the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The main iron ore futures price has declined from its high. The 2601 contract is in high - level adjustment [2] - Coal - Coke: Coal supply is abundant, and the difficulty of price support for coking coal will increase. Coke price hikes are expected to be implemented, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The coke market follows coking coal, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is average, with weak downstream performance. The steel price is under pressure again. To reach the normal seasonal inventory level, production needs to decline by about 10000 tons. The 2601 contract is in weak shock operation [2] - Glass: The industry was called to raise prices, which may stimulate pre - holiday restocking. In the long run, the real estate industry is in adjustment. Attention should be paid to production and policy changes during the holiday [2] Group 2: Financial Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, rebound, etc.) - Core View: The market is affected by policies and economic data. The stock index market has different trends, and the bond market is under pressure. Gold shows a relatively strong shock trend [3][4] - Directory Summary: - Stock Index Futures/Options: The stock index market has different trends. The Politburo meeting emphasized high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The new policy financial tools may boost investment. It is recommended to control risk preferences [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has risen, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. Treasury bond bulls should hold lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. Factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks support the price. It is expected to be in a relatively strong shock [4] Group 3: Light Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including range shock, consolidation, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of different products in the light industry are different, and the price trends are also diverse [5] - Directory Summary: - Logs: The supply is tightening, the cost support is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in range shock [5] - Pulp: The cost support is increasing, but the demand is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom - level consolidation [5] - Offset Paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. It is expected to be in shock [5] Group 4: Oil and Fat Industry - Investment Rating: Wide - range shock, shock - bearish - Core View: The supply - demand relationships of oils and fats are complex, affected by factors such as production, policy, and inventory. The supply of meal products is relatively loose [5] - Directory Summary: - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil is increasing, but there are also factors such as production reduction and policy changes. The supply of domestic soybean oil is abundant. It is expected that oils will be in wide - range shock [5] - Meal Products: The supply of domestic soybean meal is loose, and the export of US soybeans is weak. It is expected that meal products will be in shock - bearish trend [5] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Shock - strong, shock - weak - Core View: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand has short - term fluctuations. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] - Directory Summary: - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, but the sales pressure is also rising. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] Group 6: Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, wait - and - see, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of soft commodities and polyester products are complex, and the price trends are different [7][8] - Directory Summary: - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in wide - range shock [8] - PX: There are potential supply risks, and the supply - demand is decreasing. The price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support may weaken, and the supply - demand is marginally weakening. The price follows cost fluctuations [8] - MEG: The supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term price is affected by cost fluctuations [8] - PR: The market trading is expected to be dull, and the price is expected to be stable [8] - PF: The cost support may weaken, and the market may have narrow - range consolidation [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining significantly, and with capital outflows, the market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to stay out of the market during the holiday to control risks and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On September 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1120.49 points, down 10.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 921.25 points, down 22.8% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value was 54.6) [2]. c. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [2]. d. Market Conditions and Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to try to go long at around 1600 for the 12 and 02 contracts. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold positions stubbornly. Set stop - losses [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [2]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation [2]. e. Contract - related Information - On September 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1115.0, down 3.11%, with a trading volume of 1.67 million lots and an open interest of 2.93 million lots, a decrease of 3117 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit and circuit - breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - The market continues to rebound, in line with the report's bottoming - out prediction, with far - month contracts stronger. It is recommended to control risks by holding an empty position during the holiday and setting stop - losses [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4] - Although liner companies have announced a freight rate increase for late October, there are doubts about the implementation, and the market fluctuates widely and moves downward under the long - short game. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On September 22, SCFIS (European route) was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [3] - On September 26, NCFI (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 614.14 points, down 8.83%; NCFI (US West route) was 868.22 points, down 8.11% [3] - On September 26, SCFI was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; SCFI (European route) was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70%; SCFI (US West route) was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% [3] - On September 26, CCFI (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1401.91 points, down 4.7%; CCFI (US West route) was 824.92 points, up 2.4% [3] Economic Data - Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3] - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4] - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value was 54.6) [4] Contract Information - On September 26, the main contract 2510 closed at 1139.0, down 1.86%, with a trading volume of 22,000 lots and an open interest of 32,400 lots, a decrease of 3095 lots from the previous day [4] Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and far - month contracts are stronger, in line with the bottoming - out prediction. Risk - takers are recommended to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] Other Information - The circuit - breaker limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5] - On September 27, local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) was reported to agree to the US - proposed Gaza cease - fire plan, but Hamas has not yet commented. On September 26, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defended Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip and multiple Middle Eastern countries at the UN General Assembly, and his speech was protested by many parties [6]