Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously falling, but the freight rate is approaching the break - even line, and the futures market has stopped falling and rebounded. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Freight Rate Index - On September 22, SCFIS (European route) was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, SCFI was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, NCFI (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than expected [3]. - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, service PMI preliminary value was 55.4, and Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, all higher than expected [3]. c. Tariff and Market Strategy - Sino - US tariff negotiations have no substantial progress, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect. The focus is on spot freight rates [4]. - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions, wait for the bottom - building opportunity, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. d. Contract Information - On September 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1093.7, up 2.00%, with a trading volume of 4.49 million lots and an open interest of 4.60 million lots, a decrease of 1685 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously falling, but the freight rate is approaching the break - even line, and the futures market has stopped falling and rebounded. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - For short - term strategies, the main contract remains weak, and it is advisable to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. For arbitrage strategies, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For long - term strategies, it is advisable to take profits when the contract price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back [4]. Summary by Related Contents Freight Rate Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, showing continuous improvement [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of business production and operation activities [3]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4, both higher than expected [3]. Contract Information - On September 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1093.7, with a 2.00% increase, a trading volume of 4.49 million lots, and an open interest of 4.60 million lots, a decrease of 1685 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

Freight Rates and Market Sentiment - Spot freight rates remain low, with a pessimistic market sentiment leading to continued declines, suggesting no further accumulation and the importance of setting stop-loss orders[1] - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes decreased by 8.1% to 1440.24 points, while the index for US West Coast routes increased by 37.7% to 1349.84 points[2] - The overall Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, reflecting an 8.8% decrease in rates for European routes and a 31.0% decrease for US West Coast routes[2] Economic Indicators - Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 50.5, above the expected 49.5, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity[2] - The US manufacturing PMI reached a 39-month high of 53.3, significantly above the forecast of 49.5, suggesting robust manufacturing growth[2] Trade and Tariff Developments - Ongoing delays in US-China tariff negotiations have led to a marginalization of tariff issues, with current focus shifting to spot freight rates[3] - The main contract closed at 1050.5, reflecting a 6.00% decline, with trading volume at 32,100 contracts and an increase in open interest by 542 contracts[3] Strategic Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests maintaining a weak position in main contracts while waiting for bottoming opportunities, advising against holding positions without stop-loss measures[4] - Long-term strategy recommends taking profits on high positions and waiting for stabilization before making further directional judgments[4] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and volatile oil prices are contributing to market instability, necessitating close monitoring of these factors[6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: High-level sideways [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish with sideways bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish with sideways bias [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Sideways [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Sideways [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The iron ore market is supported by increased global shipments and rising demand, while the coal and coke market rebounds due to production cuts and positive expectations. The rebar market faces high supply and low demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The glass market is driven by fuel prices and macro sentiment, but the supply-demand contradiction remains. The financial market is affected by Sino-US relations and economic data, with stock index futures showing mixed trends and treasury bonds trending weakly [2][4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver prices expected to remain high and volatile. The forest products market shows different trends, with logs expected to range-bound, pulp to bottom consolidate, and offset paper to be bearish. The oil and fat market is affected by production, inventory, and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate widely. The agricultural products market shows mixed trends, with live pigs expected to be bullish with sideways bias and soybeans and related products to be bearish with sideways bias. The soft commodities market shows different trends, with rubber expected to be sideways and polyester products to show mixed trends [4][6][7][9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased to 35.731 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising to 29.778 million tons. Demand rebounded as daily pig iron production remained high, and steel mills had pre-holiday restocking expectations. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high, showing a strong trend [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Production cuts at coal mines and increased "anti-involution" expectations drove the double-coke futures to rebound. Supply is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand increased as daily pig iron production remained high. The market is expected to be bullish with sideways bias [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Supply remained high while demand was weak, and inventory pressure increased. The market is expected to be sideways, with the rebar 2601 contract likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Non-ferrous Metals - Glass: The glass futures were driven by rising fuel prices and improved macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction remained, but inventory reduction provided some confidence. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path [2]. - Soda ash: The real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and the decline in housing completion area is significant. Attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures: The market showed mixed trends, with the CSI 1000 Index Futures trending downward. Sino-US relations and economic data affected the market, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond increased, and the market trended weakly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bond futures lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. The current upward trend logic remains, and prices are expected to remain high and volatile [4]. Forest Products - Logs: Port shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Inventory increased to around 3 million cubic meters. Spot prices were stable, and the market is expected to range-bound [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were stable, and cost support increased. However, the paper industry's profitability was low, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to bottom consolidate [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and demand was weak. The industry has overcapacity, and the market is expected to be bearish [6]. Oil and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Palm oil production increased in August, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil inventory was high, but future imports are expected to decrease seasonally. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: US soybean production increased, and domestic supply was abundant. Demand was weak, and prices are expected to be bearish with sideways bias [6][7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight increased, and slaughterhouse开工率 increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and prices may face some pressure [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Demand improved as tire factory capacity utilization increased. Inventory continued to decline, and prices are expected to be sideways [9]. - Polyester products: PX prices followed oil prices, and PTA supply and demand both increased. MEG supply pressure increased, and PR and PF prices are expected to fluctuate [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottoming process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not recommended to hold positions against the market. Set stop - losses well [4]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Spot Freight Rates and Indexes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Tariff and Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1050.5, with a decline of 6.00%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 47,700 lots, an increase of 542 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. - Qatar and Egypt will continue to mediate the Gaza conflict. Hamas disagrees to negotiate under the current situation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot freight rates remain low, the US has restarted the interest - rate cut, and the market is fluctuating at a low level. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route on September 12 was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period [1]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [1]. PMI Data - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than 50.9 in July, improving for three consecutive months and reaching the highest level since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [1]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Tariff and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff issue has been postponed, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiation. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [3]. - On September 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1105.9, down 2.08%, with a trading volume of 1.96 million lots and an open interest of 4.72 million lots, a decrease of 2436 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try going long lightly around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Other Information - Israel's Ministry of Defense announced on September 17 that it had completed the development of the "Iron Beam" laser air - defense system, which can intercept rockets, mortars, and drones at a "low cost" and is expected to be delivered by the end of this year [4]. - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 18, restarting the interest - rate cut since December last year [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Spot freight rates are maintaining a low level, the bulk market is generally weak, the US has cut the benchmark interest rate again, and market pessimism persists. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 903.32 points, down 11.71%; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78%; the NCFI for the US - West route on September 12 was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% [1]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24%; the SCFI US - West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1%; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [1]. Economic Data - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, higher than in July and the highest since May 2024 [1]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4 [2]. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff issue has evolved into a trade negotiation problem between the US and other countries. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [3]. Contract Information - On September 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1105.9, down 2.08%, with a trading volume of 1.96 million lots and an open interest of 4.72 million lots, a decrease of 2436 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Rebounding [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [6] - Meal products: Oscillating with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day holiday, trading focus will gradually shift to the real situation. The short-term sentiment in the iron ore market has been boosted, and the supply of iron ore has returned. The fundamentals of iron ore in the short term have limited contradictions [2]. - The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed [2]. - The rise of glass futures is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the warming of macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [3]. - The supply pressure of logs is generally not large, and the daily average shipment volume has slightly increased. It is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The double-offset paper industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand [6]. - After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Meal products are expected to continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices [7]. - The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply has returned. The daily average pig iron output has slightly rebounded and remained at a high level, driving up the demand for iron ore. The short-term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether the iron ore 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coal and coke**: The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected. The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The short-term rebar 2601 contract will oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance of rebar [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock market has generally declined. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors vary. It is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain high-level oscillations [3]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has slightly increased, and the supply pressure is generally not large. The inventory has rebounded to around the key threshold of 3 million cubic meters. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has mainly declined. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. It is expected that the pulp price will consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double-offset paper**: The spot market price of double-offset paper is running steadily. The industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand. The overall situation is bearish, and opportunities to short on rebounds should be sought [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meal products**: The new crop yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. It is expected that meal products will continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices. It is expected that the price of standard pigs may decline slightly under pressure, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [7]. Soft Commodities - **Natural rubber**: The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs. The inventory of MEG is expected to remain at a low level, and the market of polyester bottle chips is expected to continue oscillating and consolidating [10].

Price Trends - NCFI (Ningbo Export Container Freight Index) dropped to 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period[2] - SCFIS (Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for Europe) decreased to 1440.24 points, down 8.1%[2] - SCFIS (Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for US West Coast) increased to 1349.84 points, up 37.7%[2] Market Sentiment - Main shipping companies significantly reduced spot freight rates, indicating a pessimistic outlook for cargo volumes ahead of the holiday[2] - The sentiment in the market is bearish, with a notable decline in freight rates observed[4] Economic Indicators - Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is at 50.5, above the expected 49.5, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity[2] - US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value reached 53.3, the highest in 39 months, exceeding expectations[3] Strategic Recommendations - It is advised not to increase positions further and to set stop-loss orders due to the current market conditions[2] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a weak position in main contracts while considering light positions in distant contracts[4]