证券研究报告 | 2024年03月21日 李宁（02331.HK） 买入 2023 年收入增长 7%，年底库销比 3.6 个月 核心观点 公司研究·海外公司财报点评 2023年收入增长7%，毛利率持平，派息率45%。1）2023年收入增长7.0% 纺织服饰·服装家纺 至276.0亿元，归母净利润减少21.6%至31.9亿元，批发/直营/电商收入分 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：关竣尹 别增长0.6%/29.6%/0.9%。毛利率同比持平在48.4%，销售费用率提升4.6 0755-81981391 0755-81982834 dingshijie@guosen.com.cnguanjunyin@guosen.com.cn 百分点，主要由于收入不达年初预期、固定费用比率上升，以及下半年计提 S0980520040004 S0980523110002 门店相关减值，其他收入比率下降1.5百分点至1.2%，净利率下降4.2百分 基础数据 点至11.5%。经营现金净流入上升19.8%至46.9亿元，全年派息率45%。2） 投资评级 买入(维持) 2023下半年，公司减少批发发货，收入增长1.4%至135.8亿元，净 ...

业绩简评 李宁3.20 发布2023 全年业绩，营收同比增长7%至 275.98 亿元， 归母净利润同比增长11.5%至 31.87 亿元，表现符合预期。 公司董事会建议派发末期股息 18.54 分/股（人民币），全年派息 合计57.74 分/股，派息率较22年提升 15pct 至45%。 经营分析 直营驱动增长，批发流水显著好于收入。公司 23年直营收入同增 29%，主要由开店（净增68 家）、同店（增长 10%-20%低段）贡献。 港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 大货批发端收入同增 1%，主要受到公司主动减少发货、关店（净 71.00 4,000 关 123 家）等因素影响，流水仍呈现 10%-20%低段增长，预计 24 63.00 3,500 55.00 3,000 年批发收入与流水的差距将显著缩小。电商渠道受竞争环境加剧 2,500 47.00 2,000 影响收入同增1%，流水低双位数增长。其中 4Q23 全渠道流水实现 39.00 1,500 20%-30%低段增长，线下/电商分别20%-30%高段/中单位数增长。 31.00 1,000 23.00 500 库销比、折扣改善。截至 23年末渠道库 ...

纺织服饰/服装家纺 公 司 2023 年批发及电商短暂调整，期待 2024 年货通价顺 研 李宁（02331.HK） 究 ——港股公司信息更新报告 2024年03月21日 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（联系人） 投资评级：买入（维持） lvming@kysec.cn zhoujiale@kysec.cn zhangshuangning@kysec.cn 证 书编号：S0790520030002 证书编号：S0790522030002 证书编号：S0790122070037  2023年批发及电商短暂调整，期待2024年货通价顺，维持“买入”评级 日期 2024/3/20 2023 年公司实现营收 275.98 亿元(同比+7%，下同)，归母净利润 31.87 亿元 港 当前股价(港元) 21.450 (-21.6%)，扣非归母净利润30.46亿元（-25%），净利率11.5%（-4.2pct），派息率 股 一年最高最低(港元) 65.000/14.940 提至 45%。考虑 2023 年控货致电商及批发收入不及预期，我们下调 2024-2025 公 司 总市值(亿港元) 554.37 年并新增2 ...

M N 21 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Ning (2331 HK) Expectations reset with positive initiatives Target Price HK$24.86 We do find Li Ning’s FY23 results and FY24E guidance are inline, even though the views from the market are quite mixed. Anyhow, we do appreciate (Previous TP HK$32.93) management’s efforts to fix the bugsell and the branding power issues, as well Up/Downside 15.9% as resetting investors’ expectation with a prudent guidance. With all the prog ...

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 7.0% to RMB 27.598 billion, with a gross margin maintained at 48.4%[2] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 3.187 billion, with a net profit margin of 11.5%[2] - The company reported a diluted earnings per share of RMB 123.21, down from RMB 155.38 in the previous year[6] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 27,598,491,000, an increase from RMB 25,803,383,000 in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 6.95%[17] - The profit attributable to equity holders for 2023 was RMB 3,186,910,000, a decrease from RMB 4,063,834,000 in 2022[37] - Basic earnings per share decreased to 123.21 RMB in 2023 from 155.38 RMB in 2022, a decline of 20.7%[35] - The company's gross margin remained stable at 48.4%, while the operating margin decreased to 12.9% from 18.9%[50] Cash Flow and Dividends - Operating cash inflow rose by 19.8% to RMB 4.688 billion[2] - The company proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.1854 per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of RMB 0.5474 per share, with a payout ratio of 45%[2] - The total dividend proposed for 2023 is RMB 1,434,109,000, which represents 45% of the profit attributable to equity holders, compared to 30% in 2022[38] - The interim dividend for the first half of 2023 was RMB 36.20 per share, while there was no interim dividend in 2022[42] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets amounted to RMB 34.208 billion, compared to RMB 33.647 billion in the previous year[5] - Total equity attributable to equity holders was RMB 24.407 billion, slightly up from RMB 24.332 billion in the previous year[5] - The company's contract liabilities increased to RMB 552,537,000 in 2023 from RMB 252,090,000 in 2022, reflecting a growth of approximately 118%[19] - The total accounts payable increased to 1,789,796 thousand RMB in 2023 from 1,584,424 thousand RMB in 2022, reflecting an increase of 12.9%[28] Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from footwear was RMB 13,389,080,000, while apparel revenue increased to RMB 12,410,785,000, up from RMB 10,708,594,000 in 2022, indicating a significant growth in apparel sales of approximately 15.87%[17] - Direct sales revenue increased to RMB 6,907,451,000 in 2023 from 5,330,434,000 in 2022, marking a growth of approximately 29.63%[18] - E-commerce sales reached RMB 7,531,410,000, slightly up from RMB 7,465,297,000 in 2022, reflecting a growth of approximately 0.89%[18] - Overall retail sales (including online and offline) recorded low single-digit growth in the range of 10%-20%[2] - New product line retail sales achieved low single-digit growth in the range of 10%-20%[2] Expenses and Costs - Inventory costs recognized as expenses for the year amounted to RMB 13,856,610,000, compared to RMB 12,979,293,000 in 2022, showing an increase of approximately 6.76%[21] - Total sales and distribution expenses rose by 24.1% year-on-year to RMB 9,080,121,000, accounting for 32.9% of total revenue, up 4.6 percentage points from 2022[56] - Administrative expenses increased to RMB 1,256,152,000, representing 4.6% of total revenue, a rise of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year[57] - The overall sales cost for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 14,246,436,000, an increase from RMB 13,318,590,000 in 2022, with a stable gross margin of 48.4%[55] Research and Development - Research and product development expenses rose to 618,183 thousand RMB in 2023 from 534,156 thousand RMB in 2022, marking an increase of 15.7%[29] - The group plans to enhance R&D investment to drive innovation and improve product functionality, aiming to increase the proportion of professional products[96] Market and Product Development - The company focused on product innovation and brand image enhancement to attract young consumers, utilizing cross-industry collaborations and entertainment resources[74] - The company launched the "BADFIVE" series, which integrates street basketball characteristics and professional performance, successfully appealing to young consumers[80] - The company has committed to sustainable development by promoting eco-friendly products and optimizing its supply chain and logistics systems[74] - The launch of new badminton rackets "Thunder 100" and "Warrior 9000" has enhanced the competitiveness of Li Ning's badminton product line, with "Thunder 100" featuring the industry's thinnest 6.0mm shaft[81] Employee and Corporate Governance - As of December 31, 2023, the group employed 4,845 employees, an increase from 4,610 employees on December 31, 2022[95] - The company has adhered to the corporate governance code as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rules for the year ending December 31, 2023, with some deviations explained[101] - The audit committee, consisting of independent non-executive directors, reviewed the accounting principles and practices adopted by the group for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023[102] Future Outlook and Strategy - The group anticipates continued economic recovery in China, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing consumption[96] - The company plans to utilize approximately 40% of the net proceeds from the previous share placement for business investments, including international expansion, amounting to 2,630,853,000 RMB[69] - The company is focusing on building a sustainable supply chain, transitioning from "passive production" to "active production" to enhance efficiency and reduce waste[92]

纺织服饰 李宁（ ） 买入 维持 02331.HK -A( ) 渠道库存回归健康状态，2023年跑步品类流水表现靓丽 2024年3月20日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述  3月20日，公司披露2023年年度业绩，2023年，公司实现营收275.98亿元，同 比增长7.0%，实现归母净利润31.87亿元，同比下降21.6%。董事会建议派发2023年 末期股息18.54分/股，结合中期股息36.20分/股，全年派息54.74分/股，全年派息率 45%。 事件点评 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所  2023年公司减少批发渠道发货，营业收入增速弱于零售流水。营收端，2023年， 公司实现营收275.98亿元，同比增长7.0%，从渠道角度看，公司收入增长主要为直营 市场数据：2024年3月20日 渠道带动。其中23H1、23H2营收分别实现140.19、135.79亿元，同比增长12.97%、 收盘价（港元）： 21.450 1.38%。从流水角度看，2023年公司整体流水增长10%-20%低段，其中电商渠道流水 年内最高/最低（港元）： 65.000/14.940 增长低单位数，线下渠道流水增 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年03月20日 李宁（02331.HK） 营运改善显著，期待长期健康增长 公司2023年营收增长7%，归母净利润下滑22%。2023公司营收同 买入（维持） 比增长7%至275.98亿元，其中批发/直营/电商增速分别 股票信息 +0.6%/+30%/+0.9%，期内由于客流波动电商业务表现较弱，同时为 行业 服装 了管控渠道库存，公司对加盟商发货进行控制，毛利率同比持平为 前次评级 买入 48.4%，销售费用率/管理费用率同比提升4.6/0.2pcts至 32.9%/4.6%，综上公司全年归母净利润同比下滑21.6%至32亿元，净 3月20日收盘价(港元) 21.45 利率同比降低4.2pcts至11.5%，全年分红比例为45%（2022年为 总市值(百万港元) 55,437.08 30%），2023年公司业务整体处于优化阶段。 总股本(百万股) 2,584.48 其中自由流通股(%) 100.00 李宁成人装：多举措合力，期待2024年健康增长。2023年在消费环境 30日日均成交量(百万股) 29.65 波动下成人装流水同比增长低双位数，受渠道控货影响，我们预计成人 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's stock has experienced a decline following a downgrade from Goldman Sachs, which has reduced its investment rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and lowered the target price from HKD 33 to HKD 22 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Li Ning's stock price fell over 4% during trading, with a current price of HKD 19.9, reflecting a decline of 3.4% [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 145 million [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs noted that Li Ning's stock has risen approximately 30% since hitting a low in January, but faces potential risks to profit margins due to increased marketing expenses and operational deleveraging [1] - The firm indicated that Li Ning's sales growth outlook may be impacted by ongoing management and control over its agents [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast Adjustments - In light of a weak consumer environment, Goldman Sachs has adjusted Li Ning's earnings forecasts for fiscal years 2024 to 2026 downward by 6% to 11% [1] - This adjustment reflects a slowdown in sales growth prospects and increased costs associated with the Olympic year and brand-related investments [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 27.8 HKD per share based on a 18x PE for 2024 [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a healthy inventory turnover ratio by Q4 2023, with inventory issues being addressed through management strategies and upcoming sales events [2]. - Continuous share buybacks have been noted, with a total amount of approximately 961 million HKD since September 2023, indicating management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects [2]. - The company is projected to experience healthy revenue growth in the medium to long term, despite short-term pressures on revenue and profit margins due to inventory management [2]. Summary by Sections Inventory Management - The company aims to control inventory age structure and turnover rates, with expectations for the inventory-sales ratio to decrease further by Q4 2023 [2]. - The resolution of inventory issues is anticipated by mid-2024, which may lead to improved discounting and gross margins [2]. Share Buybacks - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with plans to utilize up to 3 billion HKD for further buybacks, which is expected to bolster market confidence [2]. Financial Projections - The forecasted net profit for the company is 3.16 billion CNY for 2023, with expected growth to 3.71 billion CNY in 2024 and 4.34 billion CNY in 2025 [3]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 27.37 billion CNY in 2023 to 30.58 billion CNY in 2024, and further to 34.62 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][11]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the overall health of the sports footwear and apparel industry in China, with the company focusing on professional sports categories, suggesting potential for upward profitability [2].

智通财经APP获悉，体育用品股普涨，截至发稿，李宁(02331)涨6.39%，报17.66港元；裕元集团(00551)涨4.9%，报7.7港元；滔搏(06110)涨3.56%，报5.23港元；361度(01361)涨0.87%，报3.47港元。 国信证券指出，1月FILA、阿迪百度搜索热度大幅增长，主要基于新产品线或龙年新春新品的推出。同时在运动社区上，国货品牌李宁和安踏也在围绕球星和赛事方面有较高的讨论热度，李宁畅销款销量在本土品牌中第一，多数品牌畅销款平均折扣收窄。建议把握低估值景气赛道品牌的配置良机。 中银国际此前表示，整体来看，体育服饰公司Q4零售流水在内需波动背景下保持稳健增长，随着各大公司去库存战略推进下库存压力减轻，看好2024年各大体育服饰公司轻装上阵，发力产品与营销，并有望在奥运年的催化下保持快速增长。 ...