Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities predicts that 2026 will be a "Red Horse Year" for the Chinese base metals market, driven by favorable conditions for electrification and AI power infrastructure in 2023 due to factors such as a weak dollar and the US interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The supply of copper and aluminum remains tight [1] - Demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery production, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - The anti-involution policy is becoming more balanced, although recent enforcement has been weak [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Preferred stocks include aluminum companies as alternative investments for AI power supply, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio between 8 to 10 times [1] - Positive outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks; neutral view on coal; bearish on solar energy and construction materials (like steel) due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 3: Specific Stock Picks - Key stock picks include China Aluminum (601600) (02600), Zijin Mining (601899) (02899), China Hongqiao (01378), Shandong Gold (600547) (01787), and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) (01772) [1] - Underperforming stocks identified include Tongwei Co. (600438) (600438.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), Ansteel (000898) (00347), and China Resources Cement (01313) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to several key factors, including a weak US dollar and a US interest rate cut cycle benefiting metals [1] - Key demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery demand, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - Supply constraints for copper and aluminum are expected to continue, contributing to the overall market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The preferred investment stocks include aluminum companies, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio between 8 to 10 times, and a "buy" outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - The company holds a neutral view on coal and a bearish outlook on solar energy and construction materials (such as steel) due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] - Key stocks that are expected to underperform the market include Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), Ansteel Group (00347), and China Resources Cement Technology (01313) [1]

Summary of Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - **Stock Code**: 2600.HK Key Industry Insights - **Alumina and Aluminum Prices**: - Alumina prices have been weak since Q4 2025 due to surplus supply and increased bauxite supply [2][4] - Aluminum prices have remained strong since Q4 2025, benefiting from China's capacity cap policy and rising demand [2][5] Core Business Strategies - **Focus on Aluminum Business**: - In 2026, Chalco will concentrate on its aluminum business, aiming for a 100% utilization ratio [3] - The output of metallurgical alumina is expected to align closely with aluminum consumption, with profitable sales of chemical alumina anticipated [3] - **Bauxite Production**: - Chalco plans to increase its bauxite output from Guinea year-over-year in 2026 [3] Financial Performance and Projections - **Cost Management**: - Imported bauxite prices decreased quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, while domestic prices remained stable [4] - Labor costs increased in Q4 2025 due to salary and bonus recognition [4] - **Profitability Outlook**: - The profit from the alumina segment is expected to be lower quarter-over-quarter, while the aluminum segment is projected to be higher in Q4 2025E [2] - Chalco's expected net profit for Q4 2025 is estimated at RMB 2.9 billion, with an impairment loss of approximately RMB 2 billion anticipated [8] Market Valuation - **Target Price**: - The target price for Chalco's H-share is set at HK$15.94, based on a price-to-book ratio of 2.81x for 2026E, reflecting stronger-than-historical-average return on equity [9] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: - Potential risks include lower-than-expected aluminum and alumina prices, higher-than-expected costs, and increased impairment losses [10] Investment Recommendation - **Rating**: - Maintain a "Buy" rating, with Chalco identified as a top pick in the coverage [1][6] Additional Information - **Market Capitalization**: - Approximately HK$256.03 billion (US$32.83 billion) [6] - **Expected Total Return**: - 23.1%, with an expected dividend yield of 4.6% [6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the 2026 Business Outlook Call for Aluminum Corporation of China, highlighting the company's strategic focus, financial outlook, and market positioning.

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant inflows into related ETFs, indicating robust investor interest and potential for continued growth [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The popular non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), saw an intraday increase of 2.2%, currently up 1.41%, reaching a new high since its listing [1][12]. - As of January 15, the latest scale of Huabao ETF reached 1.453 billion, marking a historical peak and ranking first among three ETFs tracking the China Nonferrous Metals Index [1][12]. - The ETF has attracted a net subscription of 50.4 million units, with a total net inflow of 473 million over the past ten days [1][12]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Leading stocks in the sector include Hunan Silver, which surged over 6%, along with Chihong Zn & Ge, Jiangxi Copper, and Jinchuan Group, all rising more than 5% [4][15]. - Other notable performers include Western Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan, both showing positive gains [4][15]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to thrive due to multiple factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macro expectations [5][16]. - The sector is expected to enter a bull market by 2026, driven by a confluence of monetary, demand, and supply factors [5][16]. - The demand for strategic metals is anticipated to rise significantly, influenced by new technologies and geopolitical factors, with a focus on metals used in military applications [3][16]. Group 4: Copper Market Insights - China Galaxy Securities suggests that copper prices have substantial upward potential, as historical analysis shows that current prices, adjusted for inflation, have not reached previous supercycle highs [3][14]. - The ongoing reshaping of the international monetary order and the low copper-to-gold ratio indicate a favorable environment for copper investments [3][14]. - The convergence of the AI technology revolution and global order restructuring is expected to create a new supercycle for copper [3][14].

Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley projects that the MSCI China Materials Index will outperform the MSCI China Index by 65 percentage points in 2025, driven by supply dynamics [1] - The firm expects continued outperformance in 2026 due to supply disruptions and further M&A activities [1] - The demand growth for basic metals in China is anticipated to slow and stabilize, with copper and aluminum demand growth rates expected to be 2.5% and 1.5% respectively [2] Company Ratings and Forecasts - China Hongqiao's rating is maintained at "Overweight," with the target price raised from HKD 34 to HKD 40, citing its integrated model as a cost advantage [1][3] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a top pick for 2026 due to its exposure to copper and gold [3] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Neutral," despite a recent stock price increase of over 40% [3] - Baosteel's rating is downgraded to "Neutral," while Angang Steel's rating is downgraded to "Underweight" due to expected declines in steel profit margins [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with South32 scheduled maintenance at the Mozal aluminum smelter in March 2026 and a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine expected to reduce copper supply by 77,000 tons [1][2] - Zijin Mining has issued a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit of RMB 51-52 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59-62% [1] M&A Activities - Industry consolidation is advancing, with notable acquisitions such as Luoyang Molybdenum's purchase of Brazilian gold assets and Jiangxi Copper's acquisition of SolGold [1]

Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley projects that the MSCI China Materials Index will outperform the MSCI China Index by 65 percentage points in 2025, driven by supply dynamics [1] - The index is expected to continue its outperformance in 2026 due to supply disruptions and increased merger activities [1] - The preference order for the Chinese basic materials industry in 2026 is copper/gold, aluminum, lithium, coal, and steel [3] Company Performance - China Hongqiao's rating is maintained at "Overweight," with the target price raised from HKD 34 to HKD 40, citing its integrated model as a cost advantage [1][4] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a top pick for 2026 due to its exposure to copper and gold [4] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Neutral," despite a recent stock price increase of over 40% [4] - Baosteel's rating is downgraded to "Neutral," while Angang Steel's rating is downgraded to "Underweight" due to expected declines in steel profit margins [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Ongoing supply disruptions include maintenance at South32's Mozal aluminum smelter and a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine, which is expected to reduce copper supply by 77,000 tons [2] - The lithium market is anticipated to tighten due to strong energy storage demand, with more supply expected to come online in the second half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876), hitting a new historical high and attracting substantial capital inflow [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) saw an increase of 3.23% and 2.69%, marking five consecutive days of gains and setting a new historical high [1][9]. - As of the report, the ETF received a net subscription of 38.4 million units, accumulating a total of 440 million yuan in the past ten days [1][9]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - In the gold sector, Xian Financial Securities suggests that the U.S. faces recession pressures, high sovereign debt, and trade deficits, which weaken the dollar's credibility, leading to increased focus on gold as a global asset [2][10]. - For copper, China Galaxy Securities indicates that there is still significant upward potential for copper prices, as historical data shows that current prices, adjusted for inflation, have not reached previous supercycle highs [3][11]. - Strategic metals like tungsten, molybdenum, titanium, and rare earths are expected to see increased demand due to technological revolutions and supply chain security concerns, as noted by CITIC Securities [3][11]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector include Huaxi Non-ferrous, Hunan Silver, and Huayou Cobalt, all of which have surged over 7% [4][12]. - Other notable performers include Ganfeng Lithium, which rose over 6%, and several other stocks that experienced significant gains [4][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a supercycle driven by the convergence of AI advancements and global order restructuring, with historical parallels drawn to significant macroeconomic events [5][13]. - Institutions predict a bullish market for non-ferrous metals, with expectations of a synchronized upward trend in currency, demand, and supply by 2026 [5][13].

Group 1 - The U.S. government, through the Department of Defense, has invested $150 million in preferred stock in Atlantic Aluminum Company, aiming to establish the first large-scale gallium producer in the U.S. This move is seen as a response to China's dominance in the gallium market, where it controls 95% of global production [1] - The plan involves increasing Atlantic Aluminum's alumina production to 1 million tons per year, which could theoretically yield 50 tons of gallium annually, meeting the basic needs of the U.S. military, satellite, and semiconductor industries [3] - China's dominance in the gallium market is attributed to its ability to recycle gallium from alumina production, achieving a recovery rate of 85%, significantly higher than the global average of 72% [3] Group 2 - Japan's dependence on gallium is driven by military expansion and industrial challenges, with over 60% of small and medium-sized enterprises halting operations due to a lack of gallium following China's export controls [7] - The U.S. has not relaxed its controls on gallium, and Japan may need to invest more and accept U.S. technology control to gain access to gallium, reflecting its strategic vulnerability in resource security [7] - China's control over gallium is not just an economic strategy but also a means of shaping market rules, creating a tiered market based on purity standards that limits U.S. and Japanese technological advancements [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a general increase in non-ferrous metals, with significant price movements observed in various metals such as tin, nickel, and silver [1] - The LME copper price rose by $24, reaching $13,188 per ton, while LME aluminum fell by $12 to $3,186 per ton [1] - The international geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven investments and central bank allocations towards gold, reinforcing a bullish trend in precious metals [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) saw a strong increase of 1.55%, with notable gains in stocks such as Huayou Cobalt, which rose by 7.20%, and Yunnan Tin, which increased by 5.32% [1] - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 51.65% of the total, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Northern Rare Earth [2]

Group 1 - The global interest rate cut cycle is entering its second half in 2026, characterized by "internal and external easing resonance" and a shift from "extraordinary to normal" [3][4][5] - The macro liquidity environment remains favorable, with the People's Bank of China expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery [7][59] - The depreciation of the US dollar is anticipated due to continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and worsening fiscal conditions, which will support the appreciation of the RMB and strengthen the A-share market [8][62][63] Group 2 - The long-term low interest rate environment is reshaping the stock-bond allocation logic, with a shift towards equity markets as the attractiveness of fixed income products continues to rise [13][16][44] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is expected to further support the A-share market, as funds flow into equities amid a low interest rate environment [14][17][44] - The demand for "deposit migration" from residents is projected to become the largest marginal increment for the market, as a significant amount of fixed-term deposits mature in 2026 [19][20][44] Group 3 - The capital market's status is significantly upgraded in the post-real estate era, becoming a core hub for economic development and resource allocation [22][47] - Policies are being implemented to enhance shareholder returns, with a focus on increasing dividend payouts and improving profit quality, which is becoming a trend in the market [32][33][56] - The overall funding ecology is improving, with a transition from a "financing-oriented" approach to a "balanced investment and financing" model, enhancing market attractiveness and stability [32][47][56]