今年双11，一个无法忽视的背景，正是外卖市场备受关注的变局。不仅颠覆了外卖本身，也让即时配送 突破餐饮场景，逐步渗透到品牌零售之中。 闪购为电商打开了庞大的增量空间，也带来了全新的挑战。在八月的阿里财报电话会上，"闪购与电商 的协同效应"被反复提及。对于淘宝来说，日订单量超越美团只能算是阶段性成果，真正的考验是通过 新场景，释放更持久的新增量，而双11无疑是检验闪购与电商生态协同效果的关键一役。 电商已经在极端低价和流量争夺中"卷"了两年，而短短八个月间，闪购市场已经初具规模。有券商预 测，到2030年，中国即时零售市场规模有望突破3万亿，在线上电商中的渗透率将从6%提升至15.7%。 届时，消费者在电商每花6块钱，就会有1块花在即时配送上面。 针对这种变化，阿里在今年6月提出了"大消费"的构想。CEO吴泳铭提到，购物与生活服务融合的大消 费平台，是"两大历史性战略机遇"之一。 10月16日，天猫双11发布会上，阿里巴巴中国电商事业群淘宝平台总裁谌伟业（花名：处端）表 示："今年的双11是淘宝开启大消费平台的第一个双11……随着更多的消费场景打通，更多跨品类的消 费打通，我们拥有了高频连接消费者的机会，这是一 ...

电商已经在极端低价和流量争夺中 "卷"了两年，而短短八个月间，闪购市场已经初具规模。有券商 预测，到 2030年 ，中国即时零售 市场 规模 有望突破 3万亿 ， 在线上电商中的渗透率将从 6% 提升至 15.7% 。 届时，消费者在电商每花 6块钱，就会有1块花在 即时配送 上面。 针对这种变化，阿里在今年 6月提出了"大消费"的构想。 CEO吴泳铭 提到， 购物与生活服务融合 的大消费平 台 ，是 " 两大历史性战略机遇 "之一。 10月16日，天猫双11发布会上， 阿里巴巴中国电商事业群淘宝平台总裁 谌伟业（花名： 处端 ） 表示： " 今年的双 11是淘宝开启大消费平台的第一个双11 ……随着更多的消费场景打通，更多跨 品类的消费打通，我们拥有了高频连接消费者的机会，这是一个巨大的红利。" 电商平台陆续进入双 11节奏。 今年双 11，一个无法忽视的背景，正是 外卖市场 备受关注的 变局。 不仅颠覆了外卖本身，也让 即时配送突破 餐饮 场景 ，逐步渗透到品牌零售之中。 闪购为电商打开了庞大的增量空间 ，也带来了全新的挑战。在八月的阿里财报电话会上， "闪购与 电商的协同效应"被反复提及。对于淘宝来说， ...

每经AI快讯，阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.22%，报154.4港元，成交额134.66亿港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba-W (09988) shares have dropped over 4%, currently at 154.4 HKD with a trading volume of 13.466 billion HKD, amid the launch of the 2025 "Double 11" e-commerce promotion focusing on instant retail [1] Group 1: E-commerce Strategy - The "Double 11" promotion has entered a critical phase, with Taobao/Tmall investing 3 billion CNY in live-streaming red envelopes, allowing users to receive up to 2000 CNY daily [1] - For the first time, Taobao Flash Sale is participating in "Double 11," offering 50% off takeout red envelopes for 88VIP members during the promotional period [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Zheshang Securities forecasts Alibaba's China e-commerce revenue for FY26Q2 to be 126.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year growth of 11.6% [1] - The EBITA Margin is projected to be 6.8%, showing a significant decline due to substantial investments in instant retail during the third quarter [1] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The company aims to enhance user engagement and transaction frequency through high-frequency orders from food delivery, which will improve the fulfillment system [1] - The dual strategy of Ele.me and Gaode in the in-store business presents new growth opportunities for Alibaba's e-commerce segment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has dropped over 4%, currently trading at 154.4 HKD, with a trading volume of 13.466 billion HKD, amid the upcoming 2025 "Double 11" e-commerce promotion focusing on instant retail [1] Group 1: E-commerce Strategy - The "Double 11" event has entered a critical phase, with instant retail becoming a key competitive focus for e-commerce [1] - Taobao/Tmall has launched a 3 billion HKD live streaming deposit red envelope campaign, allowing users to receive up to 2000 HKD daily [1] - For the first time, Taobao Flash Sale is participating in "Double 11," offering 50% off takeout red envelopes for 88VIP members during the event [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Zheshang Securities forecasts Alibaba's Chinese e-commerce revenue for FY26Q2 to be 126.9 billion HKD, representing a year-over-year growth of 11.6% [1] - The EBITA margin is projected to be 6.8%, showing a significant decline due to substantial investments in instant retail during Q3 [1] Group 3: Business Synergies - The company aims to enhance user activity and transaction frequency through high-frequency orders from food delivery, which will synergize with traditional e-commerce operations [1] - The dual strategy of Ele.me and Gaode in the offline business is expected to create new growth opportunities for Alibaba's e-commerce segment [1]

Core Insights - This year's Tmall "Double 11" marks a significant transformation, being the first in the era of big consumption and the first fully AI-integrated event, emphasizing the platform's investment in growth [1][6][12] AI Integration - Tmall will distribute 50 billion yuan in consumer vouchers, with some being allocated through the AI "Smart Benefit Engine," which has shown a 15% increase in voucher conversion rates compared to previous years [2][4] - The platform has achieved a 40-fold increase in computing power through AI investments, enhancing product recommendation accuracy and boosting purchase efficiency by 25% [4][5] - Tmall has developed an AIGX technology system that integrates various AI functions for comprehensive e-commerce operations, although experts note that AI is still in a conceptual phase and primarily serves as an auxiliary tool [3][4] Strategic Developments - The current "Double 11" is the first under the leadership of Jiang Fan, who has restructured Alibaba's e-commerce group to enhance resource integration and focus on big consumption [6][10] - Tmall and Taobao Flash Sale will collaborate closely during this event, allowing flagship stores to connect with Flash Sale, thereby integrating online and offline operations [7][9] Market Positioning - The integration of instant retail into "Double 11" is expected to create significant business growth, with experts suggesting that the synergy between online and offline channels will enhance consumer engagement [11][12] - Tmall's deep relationships with brand merchants position it favorably in the competitive landscape, with expectations of substantial growth opportunities as it leverages its advantages [10][12]

Core Insights - The 2023 Double 11 shopping festival has evolved into a two-month commercial event, marking a significant shift in the e-commerce landscape [1][4] - Major platforms like Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu are adopting new strategies to enhance user experience and engagement, focusing on a more straightforward promotional approach [2][8] E-commerce Trends - Tmall's Double 11 pre-sale saw 35 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales within the first hour, with 1,802 brands doubling their sales compared to the previous year [5] - JD.com reported a 47.6% year-on-year increase in active users during the Double 11 period, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and electronics [5] - Xiaohongshu's marketplace saw a 77% increase in the number of buyers and a 73% increase in transaction orders within the first 48 hours of Double 11 [5] AI Integration - This year's Double 11 is characterized as the first "AI-driven" event, with platforms leveraging AI for product recommendations and user engagement [11][12] - Tmall and JD.com are utilizing AI tools to enhance user experience, with JD.com reporting significant growth in sales for AI-related products [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The competition among e-commerce platforms is intensifying, with a shift from price wars to a focus on product quality and user experience [15] - The integration of content platforms into e-commerce is diversifying the competitive landscape, with Douyin and Xiaohongshu leveraging their content ecosystems to attract users [10][14] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shifting from seeking low prices to prioritizing quality, leading to a transformation in the competitive focus of platforms and merchants [15] - The trend towards rational consumption is reshaping the e-commerce competition, emphasizing the importance of user engagement and service quality [2][7]

Core Insights - This year's Tmall "Double 11" marks the 17th edition and is characterized as the first "Double 11" in the era of big consumption and AI integration, with significant investments in AI to enhance product capabilities and user engagement [1][2] Group 1: AI Integration and Consumer Engagement - Tmall is leveraging AI to improve product recommendations, resulting in a 25% increase in purchasing efficiency due to enhanced algorithm capabilities [1] - The platform's computational power has increased by 40 times, allowing for a deeper understanding of user behavior over a 10-year period [1] - Tmall will distribute 50 billion yuan in consumer vouchers, with AI "Smart Benefit Engine" improving the conversion rate of voucher distribution by 15% [2] Group 2: Brand Support and Operational Efficiency - Tmall is facilitating a fully AI-driven operational model for brands, covering aspects from business analysis to consumer engagement, which is expected to save brands hundreds of billions in costs [2] - The Tmall flagship store has been upgraded to a 3.0 "smart state," integrating various centers to better meet user demands through real-time AI insights [2] - AI applications for merchants include generating 2 million images and 500,000 videos monthly, leading to a 10% increase in product click-through rates [3] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Performance - In the first hour of the pre-sale, 35 brands achieved over 100 million yuan in sales, and 1,802 brands saw their sales double compared to the previous year [1] - The overall investment for this year's "Double 11" is the largest in history, with significant consumer incentives and AI-driven marketing strategies [3]

Core Insights - This year's Tmall "Double 11" marks the 17th edition and is characterized as the first "Double 11" in the era of big consumption, the first fully AI-integrated event, and the first to include Taobao Flash Sales [1][3] Group 1: AI and Big Consumption - Tmall is leveraging the intersection of AI and big consumption, investing in AI to enhance product capabilities and improve user engagement, aiming to create a golden era of efficient brand growth [3] - The pre-sale data indicates that in the first hour, 35 brands achieved over 100 million in sales, and 1,802 brands saw their sales double compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2: Consumer Incentives - Tmall will distribute 50 billion yuan in consumer vouchers throughout the "Double 11" period, with some vouchers being allocated through the AI "Smart Benefit Engine," which has shown a 15% increase in conversion rates compared to previous methods [4][7] - The platform aims to enhance the shopping experience by providing personalized services and improving operational efficiency for brands through AI [4] Group 3: AI Applications and Efficiency - Tmall is introducing six AI-driven shopping applications for consumers, including AI Universal Search and AI Outfit Try-On, while also forming AI operational teams for merchants to reduce costs and increase efficiency [6] - AI tools have generated 2 billion images and 5 million videos monthly, leading to a 10% increase in product click-through rates, and AI customer service has helped merchants save 20 million yuan daily [6] Group 4: Overall Investment and Strategy - This year's investment in the "Double 11" event is the largest to date, with a total of 50 billion yuan in consumer vouchers available for both Tmall and Taobao Flash Sale products [7]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： KAIZEN投资之道 来源：雪球 当前市场环境下 ， 恒生科技股 （ 如腾讯 、 阿里巴巴 ） 与 " 老登股 " （ 如中国神华 、 美的集团 ） 的分化趋势愈发显著 。 科技股受益于AI 商业化加速 、 估值修复预期及全球流动性宽松 ， 而 " 老登股 " 则依托低估值 、 稳定现金流和防御性特征 ， 在传统行业中维持基本盘 。 从核心竞争力 、 护城河到未来增长逻辑 ， 两者代表了不同经济周期下的投资逻辑 ： 科技股聚焦技术驱动与长期景气度提升 ， 传统股则依赖资 源禀赋与行业稳定性 。 以下将从多维度对比分析其投资价值与后市潜力 。 一 、 恒生科技股 （ 腾讯 、 阿里巴巴 ） 核心竞争力与护城河 ： 1. 腾讯 ： （ 1 ） 社交生态垄断 ： 微信月活超13亿 ， 形成 " 支付-内容-小程序-游戏 " 闭环 ， 叠加视频号广告加载率提升至6% ， 商业化变现能力持 续增强 。 （ 2 ） AI技术落地 ： 混元大模型3.0精度提升3倍 ， 适配国产芯片降低算力成本 ...