保利发展控股股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 公司代码：600048 公司简称：保利发展 发布日期：2024年4月29日 □机构调研 □个人投资者调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 投资者关系活动 √业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 类别 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） 参与单位名称及 投资者 人员姓名 时间 2024年4月25日 地点 上海证券交易所上证路演中心 上市公司接待人 公司管理层、独立董事 员姓名 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 12.8 CNY [2][3] Core Views - The company's profitability, although declining year-over-year, has shown signs of recovery compared to 2023 [2] - Q1 2024 land investment was cautious, with a land acquisition ratio maintained above 90% [2] - The overall construction pace has accelerated in 2024, with asset turnover improving [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue reached 49.75 billion CNY, a 24.5% year-over-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.3% to 2.22 billion CNY [2] - Gross margin in Q1 2024 declined by 3.2 percentage points year-over-year but increased by 2.6 percentage points compared to 2023, reaching 18.6% [2] - Net profit margin attributable to shareholders in Q1 2024 decreased by 2.3 percentage points year-over-year but rose by 1.0 percentage point compared to 2023, reaching 4.5% [2] Land Acquisition and Development - In Q1 2024, the company acquired 4 projects in Tianjin, Xi'an, and Taiyuan, with a total investment of 5 billion CNY, a 73% year-over-year decrease [2] - Land acquisition area in Q1 2024 was 590,000 square meters, a 35% year-over-year decrease [2] - Land investment intensity dropped from 16% in Q1 2023 to 8% in Q1 2024 [2] Construction and Development Plans - New construction in Q1 2024 reached 2.83 million square meters, accounting for 16% of the annual plan (10% in Q1 2023) [2] - Completed construction in Q1 2024 was 5.42 million square meters, accounting for 16% of the annual plan (12% in Q1 2023) [2] - The annual completion plan for 2024 has been reduced by 16%, while the new construction plan has increased by 21% [2] Financial Forecasts - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 0.95, 1.01, and 1.10 CNY, respectively [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 323.551 billion, 323.406 billion, and 333.560 billion CNY, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11.330 billion, 12.131 billion, and 13.140 billion CNY, respectively [5] Valuation Metrics - Current price: 9.28 CNY [3] - 52-week price range: 7.90-14.76 CNY [4] - Market capitalization: 111.086 billion CNY [4] - P/E ratio for 2024E: 9.80 [5] - P/B ratio for 2024E: 0.54 [5] - Dividend yield for 2024E: 4.2% [5] Industry and Company Overview - The company operates in the real estate and financial sectors [3] - It is a large enterprise group focused on real estate development and sales, with a national first-class real estate development qualification [6] - The company has a strategic layout covering 60 major cities across China, including the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Bohai Rim regions [6]

房地产 公 2024年04月29日 司 报 保利发展(600048.SH) 告 紧抓销售回笼，投资持续聚焦 推荐 ( 维持 ) 事项： 公司公布2024年一季报，一季度实现营业收入497.5亿元，同比增长24.5%， 股价:9.28元 归母净利润22.2亿元，同比下降18.3%。 公 主要数据 平安观点： 行业 房地产 司 公司网址 www.polycn.com ...

事件 2024年 4月 29 日，公司发布2024 年一季报：实现营收 497.48亿 元，同比+24.51%；实现归母净利润22.24 亿元，同比-18.28%。 点评 当期营收上升，归母净利下滑。2024 年第一季度公司在竣工端持 续投入，因而竣工结转量的上升带动收入增长。而归母净利润同比 出现下滑，主要由于：①项目结转毛利率下降；②项目结转权益比 例下降。 销售规模稳居行业第一，加快资金回笼。受市场大势及公司推货 节奏影响，2024 年第一季度公司签约销售金额 629.84 亿元，同比 -44.87%，签约面积 366.87 万平方米，同比-41.84%。根据克而瑞， 公司全口径销售额继续维持行业第一的龙头地位。同时公司紧抓 回款，一季度实现销售回笼资金576.51 亿元，综合销售回笼率达 91.53%。 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 投资聚焦核心38 城。2024年 1-3月公司新拓展项目4个，其中西 17.00 3,500 安 2个，天津1 个，太原 1个，均在公司聚焦的38 个核心城市范 3,000 15.00 2,500 围内。一季度公司拿地总地价 50.3 亿元，权益地价 46.7 亿元， ...

房地产/房地产开发 公 司 研 保利发展（600048.SH） 营收增长结转权益比下降，一季度拿地强度偏低 究 2024年04月29日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（联系人） qidong@kysec.cn huyaowen@kysec.cn 日期 2024/4/29 证 书编号：S0790522010002 证书编号：S0790122080101  经营管理能力优秀的龙头央企，维持“买入”评级 当前股价(元) 9.28 公 一年最高最低(元) 15.20/7.74 保利发展发布 2024年一季报。公司行业龙头地位稳固，土储结构持续优化，融 司 资渠道畅通，资金成本优势明显，将持续受益于宽松地产政策及行业格局优化。 信 总市值(亿元) 1,110.86 我们维持盈利预测，预计2024-2026年公司归母净利润分别为131.9、142.5、151.6 息 流通市值(亿元) 1,110.86 更 亿元，EPS分别为1.10、1.19、1.27元，当前股价对应PE估值分别为8.4、7.8、 总股本(亿股) 119.70 新 7.3倍，公司销售排名榜首，看好市占率持续提升，维 ...

Revenue and Profit Performance - Revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was RMB 4,974.85 million, a year-on-year increase of 24.51%[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 222.36 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18.28%[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 211.61 million, a year-on-year decrease of 20.34%[4] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.19, a year-on-year decrease of 17.91%[4] - Company's revenue increased by 24.51% YoY to 49.748 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.28% YoY to 2.224 billion yuan in Q1 2024[10] - Total revenue for Q1 2024 reached 49.75 billion RMB, a 24.4% increase compared to 39.99 billion RMB in Q1 2023[15] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was 2.22 billion RMB, a decrease of 18.3% from 2.72 billion RMB in Q1 2023[18] - Operating income for Q1 2024 was 99.74 million yuan, up from 46.48 million yuan in Q1 2023[26] - Net profit loss for Q1 2024 was 716.75 million yuan, an improvement from 873.99 million yuan loss in Q1 2023[27] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 142,435.58 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.87%[4] - Equity attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 20,003.04 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.75%[4] - Company's total assets decreased by 0.87% to 1.424356 trillion yuan, and shareholders' equity increased by 0.75% to 200.03 billion yuan as of Q1 2024[10] - Total liabilities decreased to 1.08 trillion RMB in Q1 2024 from 1.10 trillion RMB in Q1 2023[14] - Total equity increased to 343.55 billion RMB in Q1 2024 from 337.03 billion RMB in Q1 2023[14] - Company's total liabilities decreased by 0.66 percentage points to 75.88% as of Q1 2024[10] - Total assets at the end of the period were 340,159,539,719.12 RMB, up from 327,586,476,397.47 RMB at the beginning of the period[24] - Total liabilities at the end of the period were 198,395,551,007.80 RMB, slightly up from 197,884,051,576.31 RMB at the beginning of the period[24] - Total liabilities increased to 290.17 billion yuan, up from 276.07 billion yuan in the previous period[25] - Long-term borrowings rose to 21.30 billion yuan, compared to 18.09 billion yuan in the previous period[25] - Total owner's equity decreased to 49.99 billion yuan from 51.51 billion yuan[25] Cash Flow and Financial Activities - Company's monetary funds balance was 129.554 billion yuan, with a comprehensive collection rate of 91.53% in Q1 2024[10] - Sales of goods and services received cash of 53,031,179,820.36 RMB, a decrease from 76,442,367,292.71 RMB in the previous period[20] - Net cash flow from operating activities was -33,305,867,568.54 RMB, compared to -14,162,412,369.44 RMB in the previous period[20] - Net cash flow from investing activities was -1,028,820,696.45 RMB, compared to -868,772,213.02 RMB in the previous period[21] - Net cash flow from financing activities was 15,899,237,660.91 RMB, compared to -9,506,755,561.35 RMB in the previous period[21] - Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were 128,145,836,030.11 RMB, down from 150,839,767,174.79 RMB at the beginning of the period[21] - Cash flow from operating activities showed a net outflow of 21.73 billion yuan, compared to 11.45 billion yuan outflow in Q1 2023[29] - Cash received from sales of goods and services was 77.23 million yuan, up from 19.74 million yuan in Q1 2023[29] - Cash paid for goods and services was 12.47 million yuan, down from 14.93 million yuan in Q1 2023[29] - Cash paid to employees decreased to 47.05 million yuan from 51.64 million yuan in Q1 2023[29] - Investment activities cash outflow totaled 189,374.33 thousand and 185,846.40 thousand respectively[30] - Net cash flow from investment activities was 58,055,833.28 thousand and 57,299,153.60 thousand respectively[30] - Cash inflow from financing activities was 19,200,000,000.00 thousand and 7,000,000,000.00 thousand respectively[30] - Cash outflow for debt repayment was 5,533,700,000.00 thousand and 4,097,000,000.00 thousand respectively[30] - Cash outflow for dividends, profits, or interest payments was 747,933,011.32 thousand and 862,239,072.74 thousand respectively[30] - Net cash flow from financing activities was 12,029,203,335.62 thousand and 1,023,330,744.37 thousand respectively[30] - Net increase in cash and cash equivalents was -9,647,157,979.90 thousand and -10,373,356,402.42 thousand respectively[30] - Ending balance of cash and cash equivalents was 1,923,791,061.84 thousand and 19,776,672,382.77 thousand respectively[30] Shareholder Information - The largest shareholder, Poly Southern Group Co., Ltd., holds 37.69% of the shares[6] - The second largest shareholder, Taikang Life Insurance Co., Ltd., holds 3.70% of the shares[6] - The third largest shareholder, China Poly Group Corporation, holds 3.02% of the shares[6] Market and Sales Performance - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 19.4% YoY to 227 million square meters, and sales amount decreased by 27.6% YoY to 2.14 trillion yuan in Q1 2024[10] - Company's contracted sales amount decreased by 44.81% YoY to 62.984 billion yuan, and contracted sales area decreased by 41.84% YoY to 3.6687 million square meters in Q1 2024[10] - Company's new construction area increased by 42.9% YoY to 2.83 million square meters, and completed area increased by 5.0% YoY to 5.42 million square meters in Q1 2024[10] - Company's inventory remained stable at 871.897 billion yuan as of Q1 2024[12] - Inventory increased to 1,996,601,839.72 RMB from 1,926,646,086.40 RMB at the beginning of the period[22] Operating and Investment Activities - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was 5.34 billion RMB, slightly higher than 5.32 billion RMB in Q1 2023[17] - R&D expenses decreased to 9.07 million RMB in Q1 2024 from 15.62 million RMB in Q1 2023[17] - Investment income for Q1 2024 was 399.99 million RMB, a significant improvement from a loss of 104.01 million RMB in Q1 2023[17] - Total comprehensive income for Q1 2024 was 4.05 billion RMB, up from 3.91 billion RMB in Q1 2023[18] - Minority interest in net profit increased to 1.76 billion RMB in Q1 2024 from 1.24 billion RMB in Q1 2023[18] - Long-term equity investments were 29,085,193,944.96 RMB, slightly down from 29,097,495,700.70 RMB at the beginning of the period[24] - Cash received from interest and commissions was 31,955,540.09 RMB[20] - Operating costs for Q1 2024 were 36.05 million yuan, compared to 30.14 million yuan in Q1 2023[27] Non-Recurring Items - Non-recurring gains and losses for the period amounted to RMB 107.50 million[5]

业绩暂时承压，销售行业领先 保利发展（600048.SH）/房地 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月28日 产行业 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：8.64元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 281,017 346,828 362,435 377,295 389,180 分析师：由子沛 增长率yoy% -1% 23% 5% 4% 3% 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 净利润（百万元） 18,347 12,067 13,563 14,477 15,253 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -33% -34% 12% 7% 5% 每股收益（元） 1.53 1.01 1.13 1.21 1.27 每股现金流量 0.62 1.16 2.82 -3.47 -3.38 分析师：侯希得 净资产收益率 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 P/E 5.6 8.6 7.6 7.1 6 ...

2024年4月26日 公司研究 销售规模稳居行业第一，经营性净现金流连续六年为正 ——保利发展（600048.SH）2023 年年报点评 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：8.00元 事件：公司发布23年年报。2023年，公司实现营业收入3468亿元，同比增长 23.4%；归母净利润121亿元，同比下降34.1%。 点评：经营性净现金流连续六年为正，23年减值计提充分，优质土储充裕。 作者 分析师：何缅南 23年表内结算量价齐升，积极计提存货减值：2023年，公司实现营业收入3468 执业证书编号：S0930518060006 亿元，同比增长23.4%，其中房地产销售业务营收3225亿元，同比增长25.7%， 021-52523801 收入高增长主要因23年房地产结算量价齐升，结算面积同比增长21.4%，结算 hemiannan@ebscn.com 均价同比增长3.5%；同时，华东片区营收结算规模正式超越华南片区位居公司 联系人：庄晓波 营收贡献第一的片区；公司综合毛利率为16.0%，同比降低6.0pct，其中房地 021-52523416 产销售毛利率为16.3%，同比降低5.5pct，低毛利项目结算占比仍较高 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年04月27日 保利发展（600048.SH） 2023 年业绩承压，分红比例提升 毛利率下滑和计提减值致业绩承压，分红比例显著提升。2023 年公司营 买入（维持） 业收入3468.3亿元，同比增长23.4%；归母净利润120.7亿元，同比下 股票信息 降34.1%；扣非后归母净利润117.9亿元，同比下降34.3%。公司利润下 滑主要由于：（1）低毛利项目结转导致公司2023年毛利率同比下降6pct 行业 房地产开发 至16%，税后毛利率同比下滑4.3pct至13.1%；（2）投资净收益同比减 前次评级 买入 少47.3%至22.12亿元；（3）计提资产减值损失50.5亿元，包括存货跌 4月25日收盘价(元) 8.00 价准备43.6亿（厦门、贵阳、杭州、天津、成都、九江、宁波等项目）和 总市值(百万元) 95,763.55 长期股权投资减值准备6.8亿元。2023年公司现金分红金额48.6亿元， 总股本(百万股) 11,970.44 分红率40.3%，同比提升11pct，截至2024/4/22收盘，股息率5%。 其中自由流通股(%) 100.00 30日日均成交量 ...

买入 [2T0a2b4l年e_0S4t月oc2k5In日fo ] （维持） 证券研究报告•2023年年报点评 当前价： 8.00元 保利发展（600048） 房地产 目标价： 9.69元（6个月） 聚焦核心城市，土储结构持续优化 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T a利ble润_S短u期mm承a压ry，] 高分红彰显信心。2023年公司实现营业收入 3468亿元，同比 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au池th天or惠] 增长 23.4%；实现归母净利润 121亿元，同比下降 34.1%。年内公司结转毛利 执业证号：S1250522100001 率为 16.0%，同比下降6.0pp；对存货和长期股权投资计提减值合计约50亿元。 电话：13003109597 公司拟每10股派发现金股利4.10元（含税），分红比例42.4%。 邮箱：cth@swsc.com.cn  聚焦核心城市，市占率持续提升。2023年公司实现销售金额 4222亿元，位居 分析师：刘洋 行业第一，销售面积 2386万平方米。公司坚持核心城市深耕，重点布局的 38 执业证号：S1250523070005 个核心城市销售贡献近 90%，同比提升 2p ...