Group 1 - The report highlights that in 2024, the total demand in the food and beverage industry is under pressure, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in social retail consumption, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to previous years [3][12] - The report anticipates that the food and beverage sector will see steady progress in 2025, supported by three main factors: increased consumer subsidies, potential valuation recovery, and accelerated industry innovation [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from a combination of internal and external factors, leading to a more resilient market outlook [3][36] Group 2 - The report identifies that the performance of the food and beverage sector has been mixed, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending remains volatile [12][30] - It notes that the liquor segment may see a strategic shift, with a focus on demand cultivation as the key to future growth [4][31] - The report suggests that the condiment sector could benefit from the recovery of the restaurant industry and the acceleration of chain operations, leading to increased market concentration [4][31] Group 3 - The report indicates that the dairy sector is poised for growth driven by strong domestic demand and a focus on product upgrades, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements and demand expansion [4][31] - It highlights that the snack food market remains fragmented, with supply chain advantages becoming more pronounced, and emphasizes the importance of revenue growth following scale expansion [4][31] - The beer segment is noted for its stable production but faces pressure on sales volume and pricing, with a focus on innovation and structural upgrades [4][31] Group 4 - The report discusses the overall market performance, indicating that the food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 8% in 2024, ranking it among the lowest in the industry [23][30] - It mentions that the food and beverage sector's revenue growth has been primarily driven by supply-side optimization, with demand remaining weak [30][31] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, with soft drinks and snacks showing double-digit growth, while liquor and processed foods faced declines [30][31]

五粮液：五粮液计划6个月内增持5-10亿元。集团公司计划自公告之日起6个月内通过深圳证券交易所交 易系统增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于5亿元，不超过10亿元。截至公告日，五粮液集团公司持有公 司股份7.95亿股，占公司总股本的20.49%。在本次公告前的12个月内，五粮液集团公司累计增持公司股 份340.67万股，占公司总股本的0.09%，增持金额为人民币5亿元。 投资建议 招商证券发布研报称，本周受贸易摩擦影响板块震荡。从Q1情况来看，高端白酒需求相对稳定，次高 端酒企表现分化，整体边际改善。食品板块需求企稳，调味品、乳制品、啤酒等板块轻装上阵全年业绩 改善确定性更高，而零食、饮料赛道仍然延续高景气。当前茅台、五粮液（000858）纷纷出台回购方 案，龙头底线价值清晰，白酒位置进可攻退可守，食品把握趋势向上及高景气赛道。内需有望发力背景 下，该行重申板块配置价值。 招商证券主要观点如下： 核心公司跟踪：重啤维持高位分红，中炬全年稳健收官 重庆啤酒（600132）：分红维持高位，结构表现依旧承压。公司24年高档酒结构表现仍然承压，带动吨 价同比下滑，税收政策及诉讼费用影响盈利，收入/归母净利润同比-1.2%/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong expectation for domestic demand, suggesting that the food and beverage sector is showing resilience in its fundamentals [1][2]. - The white liquor segment is expected to benefit from improved performance and valuation recovery, drawing parallels to the 2018 US-China trade tensions, where the sector demonstrated strong anti-drawdown characteristics [2]. - The beverage sector, particularly Yanjing Beer, is projected to continue its high growth momentum, with significant increases in revenue and profit expected in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The white liquor sector is anticipated to achieve both performance and valuation recovery due to strong domestic demand and improved supply dynamics. Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu are expected to report solid earnings growth, with Moutai's 2024 total revenue and net profit projected to increase by 15.7% and 15.4% respectively [2]. - Gujing Gongjiu's 2024 revenue and net profit are expected to grow by 16.4% and 20.2% respectively, indicating a robust outlook for leading brands in the sector [2]. Beer and Beverage - Yanjing Beer reported a total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with net profit soaring by 63.74% to 1.056 billion yuan [3]. - The U8 product line from Yanjing Beer is expected to maintain a growth rate exceeding 30% in 2025, driven by internal reforms and product upgrades [3]. - The beverage sector is also seeing significant developments, with the coconut water brand IF planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong market positioning and growth potential [3][7]. Consumer Goods - The report emphasizes the resilience of consumer goods, with companies like Three Squirrels and H&H International showing promising growth trajectories. H&H's revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to increase by 10.4%, driven by strong performance in its infant formula segment [7]. - Three Squirrels is actively participating in channel transformation through strategic acquisitions, which may enhance its market presence and growth potential [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index reported at 24,673.68 points [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index has increased by 2.84% over the past month, 7.60% over the past three months, and 1.18% year-to-date [2] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies within the CSI 300, categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries [2] Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index are: Kweichow Moutai (50.1%), Wuliangye (13.31%), Yili (9.73%), Shanxi Fenjiu (5.58%), Luzhou Laojiao (5.03%), Haitian Flavoring (3.63%), Dongpeng Beverage (2.75%), Yanghe (2.34%), Jinshiyuan (2.07%), and Gujing Gongjiu (1.51%) [2] - The market share of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index is composed of 75.32% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 24.68% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index includes: Baijiu (79.94%), Dairy Products (9.73%), Condiments and Cooking Oils (4.63%), Soft Drinks (2.75%), Beer (1.47%), and Meat Products (1.47%) [3] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.93% to 3216.41 points, with the liquor sector closing at 2107.87 points, up 1.42% [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao experienced slight declines, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1537.84 CNY per share, down 0.21% [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities predicts that as the overall scale of index funds continues to expand, the liquor sector will receive support for capital allocation due to its status as a weighty sector [2] - The allocation of active funds to the liquor sector is on a downward trend, with the market value proportion expected to drop to 4.11% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the historical peak of 10.12% at the end of 2020 [2] - The current PE-TTM for the liquor sector is at 20 times, which is close to the average historical level minus one standard deviation since 2010, indicating a relatively low valuation [2] - Compared to leading overseas liquor companies, Chinese liquor firms exhibit better growth potential, suggesting a valuation premium for domestic companies [2]

4月8日，据吕梁日报微信公众号消息，汾酒2030技改原酒产储能扩建项目快速推进，该项目总投资约91 亿元，规划占地面积1856亩。目前，项目已完成投资41.85亿元，进入全面建设阶段，预计投产后，将 实现年产原酒5.1万吨、储能13.44万吨的规模化目标，进一步巩固汾酒在国内白酒行业的领先地位。 点评：汾酒2030技改原酒产储能扩建项目的大手笔投资，彰显了公司深耕白酒行业的决心与信心。该项 目一旦投产，将显著提升汾酒的原酒产能与储能，为其后续市场扩张提供坚实保障。同时这一项目有望 进一步强化汾酒的行业地位，吸引更多投资者关注。此外，项目的推进也将带动相关产业链的发展，为 地方经济注入新活力。 NO.2 金枫酒业：核心市场仍在上海，未来将打造华东板块化市场 4月9日中午，金枫酒业举行2024年度业绩说明会。数据显示，公司去年"江浙沪"之外的地区收入占比为 5%，针对全国市场布局，董事长祝勇回应《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者称，公司目前核心市场还是在 上海大本营。未来会依托上海基地市场、江苏重点市场，逐渐向皖南、苏北、江浙布局，打造华东板块 化市场。 每经记者 温梦华 每经编辑 肖芮冬 丨2025年4月10日星期四 ...

即时零售将成为品牌导流的重要入口，或将持续压减传统渠道商、终端门店生存空间，集中度提速 (1)品牌产品、区域成熟度已然较高，持续的场景需求收缩环境下，以控盘分利、控价分利、固化利润 等措施维持现有规模体量的渠道主体合理稳定利润分配将受到挑战; (2)逐步年轻化的消费者结构，在美团、叮咚、朴朴超市等本地生活的及时配送的便利性培育下，即时 配送的消费习惯已养成，达成酒类下单并无实质性障碍; 总的来看，第一，无场景不消费，白酒是个典型的场景性消费品，不需要去过多讨论白酒年轻化问题， 供给创新被提上日程;第二，白酒行业经销商和终端门店的重要性不言而喻，但未来的数量或将被持续 压减。第三，2025年行业以来供给相对克制，需求场景逐步触底，渠道维持低毛利，追求高周转。3月 25-27日第112届成都糖酒会展示新品、招商交易功能继续弱化，趋势论坛与新类目商品展示继续强化。 观察1 (3)即时零售解决了传统电商的两个难点，一是即时性销售配送，过往企业O2O尝试多受制于单一品牌 流量;二是企业电商部门与线下销售区域间的分利冲突，从对抗变为赋能导流。(京东、猫超等传统官旗 店线上价格标杆多高于线下，独立的电商部门对销区多有业绩分 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector, particularly highlighting the defensive nature of mass consumer goods and the cyclical elasticity of the liquor sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a pattern of performance during systemic events, with significant downturns in 2018 and substantial recoveries in 2020, indicating resilience and potential for future growth [3][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the sector have become attractive for mid-term allocation after adjustments, with mass consumer goods showing stronger defensive characteristics and liquor companies exhibiting greater cyclical elasticity [3][4]. - Recommendations include increasing allocations to key liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as mass consumer brands such as Yili and Qingdao Beer, due to their favorable valuations and growth potential [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Event Overview - The report discusses the importance of domestic consumption and the government's focus on boosting consumer demand, especially in light of recent economic challenges [6]. 2. 2018 Review 2.1 Sector Performance - In 2018, the food and beverage sector declined by 21.95%, with a relative excess return of 8.04%, ranking third among sub-industries [17]. - The first half of 2018 saw better performance due to market consumption upgrades, while the second half was affected by trade war concerns [17]. 2.2 Changes in Performance and Valuation - Most companies in the food and beverage sector did not see significant adjustments in profit forecasts, but liquor companies experienced some upward revisions [28]. - By the end of 2018, the dynamic PE ratios for liquor companies ranged from 15-20x, while mass consumer goods were at 20-30x [29]. 3. 2020 Review 3.1 Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector surged by 84.97% in 2020, with a relative excess return of 59.07%, again ranking third among sub-industries [41]. - The sector initially lagged due to pandemic impacts but rebounded strongly as consumption patterns shifted back to normal [41]. 3.3 Changes in Performance and Valuation - By the end of 2020, many food and beverage companies saw downward adjustments in earnings forecasts, while some, like Shanxi Fenjiu and JiuGuiJiu, experienced upward revisions due to improved management and product launches [48]. - Liquor companies saw significant valuation expansions, with some exceeding 50x dynamic PE ratios by year-end [48].

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the food and beverage industry is positive, with expectations of returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [29] Core Views - The food and beverage sector demonstrates resilience amid increasing export uncertainties and expectations for domestic demand policies to be strengthened [5][15] - The SW food and beverage index rose by 0.20%, ranking 11th among 31 sub-industries, with snacks, soft drinks, and beer leading the gains [5][15] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and strong performance amid the current market conditions [10][18] Sub-industry Summary Alcoholic Beverages - The white wine sector shows significant configuration value under domestic demand policy expectations, with a focus on companies with stable fundamentals and strong earnings certainty [6][18] - The SW white wine index decreased by 0.71%, with external risks heightened due to unexpected tariffs [6][20] - Recommended companies include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiansiyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu, all rated as "Buy" [3][27] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is expected to see strong performance in Q1, with a focus on high-growth categories and channels [22] - The SW snacks, soft drinks, and beer sub-sectors led the gains, with respective increases of 8.12%, 6.85%, and 3.64% [5][22] - Companies such as Youyou Foods, Zhujiang Beer, and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted as key performers to watch in the upcoming earnings reports [22] Snacks - The snacks segment is under continuous observation for category explosions and new channel opportunities [8][23] - There is a growing consumer demand for health-conscious and innovative products, with companies like Weilong and Yuyou Foods positioned to benefit from new product introductions [8][24]

按2025年4月7日收盘价涨跌 | 企业名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年度涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元) | (按涨幅排序) | 2025年初至4月7日 | | 山西汾酒 | 216.5 | -0.76% | 19.12% | | 今世象 | 51.31 | -2.30% | 13.44% | | 一得酒业 | 56.84 | -3.37% | -13.79% | | 五粮液 | 126.78 | -3.95% | -7.77% | | #酒屋热 | 73.4 | -4.36% | -9.61% | | 贵州茅台 | 1500 | -4.39% | -1.57% | | 美盛花 | 18.42 | -4.76% | -6.02% | | 沪南老窖 | 125.56 | -5.29% | 1.39% | | 迎驾贡酒 | 51.22 | -5.60% | -5.04% | | 古井贡酒 | 164.1 | -5.94% | -4.76% | | 口子箸 | 33.86 | -7.76% | -13.71% | | 水井坊 | 45.15 | -8.32% | - ...