+证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2026-001 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于新建穿梭油轮的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次交易具体实施所涉及的公司境外投资事项，尚需在国家 相关部门备案。 一、交易概述 （一）本次交易的基本情况 上述交易未构成本公司的关联交易。 2 交易事项（可多选） □购买 □置换 其他，具体为： 订造 1 艘 DPST（动力定位穿梭油轮） 以及签署 1 艘 DPST 买方选择权协议 交易标的类型（可多选） 股权资产 非股权资产 交易标的名称 DPST（动力定位穿梭油轮） 是否涉及跨境交易 是 □否 是否属于产业整合 □是 否 2、本次交易的交易要素 1 招商局能源运输股份有限公司（下称"本公司"或"公司"）通 过下属全资子公司海宏轮船（香港）有限公司（下称"海宏 香港"）与大连船舶重工集团有限公司（下称"大连造船"） 于 2025 年 12 月 31 日签署《船舶订造协议》，订造 1+1 艘 DPST（动力定位穿梭油轮）（Suezmax ...

招商轮船公告称，为满足核心客户运力需求，公司拟投资新造船舶。2025年12月31日，其全资子公司海 宏香港与大连造船签署《船舶订造协议》，订造1+1艘DPST（动力定位穿梭油轮）（Suezmax级），协 议价格总额约17.9亿元，一艘为确定船，一艘为买方选择权船。资金拟用自有资金和银行借款，按造船 进度分批支付，交船期为2028年。该交易不构成关联交易和重大资产重组，未达股东会审议标准，境外 投资事项尚需国家相关部门备案。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [12] Core Insights - The geopolitical risks surrounding Venezuela are expected to support oil transportation during the off-peak season, with a recommendation for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [6][21] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is anticipated to benefit the transportation sector, particularly in three key areas: companies with significant dollar-denominated debt will gain from exchange rate benefits, increased purchasing power will boost outbound tourism and consumption, and lower dollar-denominated costs will improve profitability [7][35][42] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Risks and Oil Transportation - The U.S. has implemented significant sanctions against Venezuela, leading to a temporary halt in its oil exports, which are projected to be 700,000 barrels per day in 2024, accounting for 1.8% of global oil exports [6][21] - The sanctions may tighten heavy oil supply for China and the U.S., prompting increased imports from Middle Eastern and Latin American countries, thus raising compliant oil transportation demand [6][21] Renminbi Appreciation and Opportunities in Transportation - As of January 2, 2026, the Renminbi has appreciated by 1.4% against the U.S. dollar since December 2025, with expectations for continued appreciation due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][30][32] - The report categorizes beneficiaries into three tiers: companies with large dollar debts benefiting from exchange rate gains, increased outbound tourism boosting international flight revenues, and reduced costs for aviation fuel leading to improved profitability [7][35][42] Travel Demand and Market Performance - During the New Year holiday, domestic passenger traffic saw a 10% year-on-year increase, while international passenger traffic rose by 9% [8][57] - The average domestic passenger load factor improved by 6.0 percentage points year-on-year, and international load factors increased by 4.8 percentage points [8][63] Logistics and Freight Trends - The volume of express deliveries has shown a slight decline, with a 0.5% year-on-year decrease in the number of packages collected [9] - Despite the decline in express delivery growth, the logistics sector is expected to see a shift towards leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express due to a restructuring of the e-commerce ecosystem [9]

Summary of Conference Call on Venezuelan Oil Market Impact Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the impact of the recent political turmoil in Venezuela on the oil transportation market and the broader implications for the global oil supply chain [2][3][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Venezuelan Oil Supply Chain Changes**: The U.S. military action on January 3, which involved the capture of Venezuelan President Guaido's wife, has significant implications for the oil supply chain, particularly affecting the cruise market [2]. - **Venezuela's Oil Reserves**: Venezuela holds approximately 20% of the world's known oil reserves, despite current production being only about 30% of its historical peak [3][4]. - **Potential for Increased Production**: If sanctions are lifted, international capital and technology could flow into Venezuela, potentially restoring its oil production capacity and significantly increasing global compliant oil supply [3][4]. - **Short-term vs Long-term Effects**: In the short term, the political situation may lead to export disruptions and inventory build-up, pushing demand towards other compliant markets. In the long term, U.S. companies' involvement could enhance Venezuela's oil production, altering the global energy supply landscape [4][6]. - **Impact on Global Oil Prices**: The potential increase in compliant oil supply from Venezuela could lead to an oversupply in the global market, particularly in the Atlantic basin, which may depress short-term oil prices [5][6]. - **Shipping Requirements**: If Venezuela's production returns to 2008 levels, compliant oil exports could rise from 800,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, necessitating 140 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) for transportation, which would represent 20% of global compliant shipping capacity [5][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: The instability in Iran and other geopolitical factors may shift the dynamics of black oil trade, potentially benefiting compliant markets [8]. - **VLCC Freight Rates**: Recent fluctuations in VLCC freight rates have been noted, with a long-term outlook remaining positive as rental rates are expected to stabilize above $60,000 per day [8]. - **Cruise Market Outlook**: The anticipated increase in compliant oil supply from Venezuela could significantly benefit the cruise market, especially in the latter half of 2025, as demand remains high and supply tightens [6][7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Venezuelan oil market and its implications for the global oil transportation industry.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the value of oil transportation is becoming prominent against the backdrop of the US-Venezuela conflict. Short-term impacts on oil trade flows are expected to be limited, but long-term prospects may lead to increased production from Venezuela as the country could potentially re-enter compliant markets [6]. - The report suggests that the core logic of Venezuelan oil exports will shift from evading sanctions to compliance, which may increase short-distance transportation demand as US refineries are designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude oil [6]. - The supply side of the oil tanker market remains constrained, with limited growth expected in the coming years due to a low proportion of new ship orders and an aging fleet. The report notes that as of January 2026, the total order backlog represents only 17.62% of the existing fleet, with VLCC orders at 17.19% [6]. - Investment recommendations include maintaining a bullish stance on leading oil transportation companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping Company and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, as their performance is expected to continue to rise amid increasing oil transportation rates [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the geopolitical context of the US-Venezuela conflict and its implications for oil transportation, emphasizing the potential for increased production and compliance in the Venezuelan oil market [6]. Supply Constraints - The report identifies several factors contributing to supply constraints in the oil tanker market, including a historically low percentage of new ship orders, an aging fleet, and regulatory pressures that may increase operational costs for older vessels [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the oil transportation sector, particularly for leading companies, due to anticipated increases in oil transportation rates driven by geopolitical tensions [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly in light of recent developments in Venezuela and the increase in new ship prices [1][2]. Core Insights - Venezuela's political changes are expected to benefit compliant tanker markets, with a potential increase in oil exports leading to higher demand for Aframax tankers and VLCCs [3][4]. - New ship prices have shown an upward trend, with a 0.5% increase reported, particularly in gas carriers which rose by 1% [3]. - The report highlights a significant drop in VLCC freight rates, which fell by 36% week-on-week, while the Atlantic market remains relatively stable [3][4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - The report notes that the recent escalation in Venezuela's situation could lead to a 1.4% increase in compliant VLCC oil transport demand and a 4.0% increase for Aframax tankers [3][4]. - The average VLCC freight rate was reported at $43,895 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping to $38,690 per day, a decrease of 45% from the previous week [3][4]. New Ship Prices - New ship prices have increased by 0.5% to 185.59 points, although they are down 1.85% compared to the beginning of 2025 [3][4]. Oil and Product Transport - The LR2-TC1 freight rate increased by 5% to $42,671 per day, supported by tight capacity in previous weeks [3]. - The report indicates a decline in MR average freight rates by 5% to $23,103 per day, with the Atlantic market remaining stable despite the holiday season [3][4]. Air Transport - The report anticipates significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes, recommending several airlines for investment [3][4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future performance [3][4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with recent data showing a slight decrease in volumes [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil transportation sectors, indicating a positive outlook for both industries [35]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see robust demand growth, driven by increased travel during the New Year holiday, with significant year-on-year increases in both passenger volume and ticket prices. The report suggests a strategic investment during the off-peak season, anticipating a long-term super cycle [3][4]. - In the oil transportation sector, while seasonal price declines are noted, the report emphasizes the potential for future price increases due to ongoing global oil production growth and limited capacity expansion. It recommends a contrarian investment approach during the off-peak period [3][4]. Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The report highlights a strong increase in travel demand during the New Year holiday, with a 19% year-on-year increase in overall passenger movement from December 31, 2025, to January 2, 2026. Specifically, civil aviation saw a 13% increase [3][4]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to rise by over 10% year-on-year during the holiday period, despite a projected short-term dip in passenger flow post-holiday [3][4]. - The aviation industry is experiencing high load factors while ticket prices remain at historical lows, suggesting a favorable environment for profitability growth driven by demand recovery and market pricing dynamics [3][4]. Oil Transportation Sector - The report notes that the average daily earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) reached $51,000 in 2025, significantly higher than the $36,000 in 2023-2024, driven by improved capacity utilization and increased oil production from the Middle East and South America [3][4]. - Despite a recent decline in freight rates during the traditional off-peak season, the report maintains a positive outlook for future price increases, supported by ongoing global oil production growth and limited fleet expansion [3][4]. - The report suggests monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly in Venezuela, and recommends increasing positions in companies like COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Shipbuilding Leasing [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the recent performance of the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index and the impact of geopolitical tensions in Venezuela on the oil market, with expectations of a price range for Brent crude oil in early 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) increased by 0.01%, with notable gains from stocks such as Haimer Technology (300084) up 4.26%, Yutong Co. (603036) up 3.10%, and China Petroleum (601857) up 1.56% [1]. - The oil and gas ETF (159697) was quoted at 1.19 yuan, with a net subscription of 4 million units during the trading session [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the regional situation in Venezuela is causing disturbances in the crude oil market, adding uncertainty to supply and demand forecasts [1]. - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a significant accumulation of supply in the near term, projecting Brent crude oil prices to range between $55 and $63 per barrel in January 2026, with potential downward pressure [1]. Group 3: Index Composition - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index include China Petroleum (601857), China Petrochemical (600028), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), collectively accounting for 65.78% of the index [2]. - The oil and gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1].

Investment Strategy Overview - The transportation industry is closely linked to the macroeconomic environment, with a weak overall performance in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Key segments like railways and highways have weakened due to style shifts, while logistics, aviation, and shipping have seen some support in the second half of the year from anti-involution and external demand factors, but still lag behind the market index. Looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand is expected to improve driven by anti-involution and major infrastructure projects, with recommendations to focus on (1) improved domestic express delivery competition and benefiting bulk supply chains from upstream price recovery, (2) growth in business and leisure demand potentially returning aviation airports to profitability, and (3) the high prosperity cycle of oil transportation [5][72]. 2025 Review - The transportation industry index showed a stable performance, with a cumulative increase of 1.55% as of December 29, 2025, but underperformed the CSI 300 index. The performance of sub-sectors varied, with aviation airports, shipping ports, railways, and logistics showing cumulative changes of 9.74%, 6.56%, -12.86%, and 6.34% respectively, all underperforming the CSI 300 index [13][14]. Aviation Sector - The aviation supply-demand landscape continues to improve, with aircraft utilization recovering to high levels. Domestic civil aviation demand has been steadily increasing, with passenger volume reaching new highs in the second half of 2025. The average daily utilization of aircraft in China was 8.7 hours as of November 2025, nearing pre-pandemic levels [18][21]. - The average ticket price has stabilized, with a peak passenger load factor of 87.5% in August 2025. The market supply-demand situation is tight, and further tightening could boost ticket prices [23][24]. - The supply side faces challenges with aircraft manufacturers struggling to restore production capacity, with Boeing and Airbus delivering significantly fewer aircraft than pre-pandemic levels. As of 2024, Boeing delivered 348 commercial aircraft, while Airbus delivered 766, both below their respective 2019 levels [25][26]. - The demand side is supported by policy initiatives that have revitalized business activities, with business line passenger volume increasing year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 [34][36]. - Cost pressures are alleviated by declining oil prices, with WTI futures at $56.74 per barrel as of December 26, 2025, down 54.13% from peak levels. The strengthening of the RMB also reduces dollar-denominated debt burdens for airlines [40][43]. Oil Transportation Sector - The oil transportation industry is currently in a high prosperity cycle, with oil prices influenced by demand fluctuations and unexpected events. The BDTI index has seen an uptick, indicating potential for improved industry conditions [46][47]. - Short-term demand is driven by significant U.S. strategic petroleum reserve replenishment needs, while long-term demand is expected to stabilize globally. The IEA forecasts a growth of 2.5 million barrels per day in global oil demand from 2024 to 2030 [49][51]. - The supply side is characterized by tight compliance capacity, with sanctions on shadow fleets leading to a reduction in compliant shipping capacity. This is expected to gradually elevate oil transportation rates [56][57]. Bulk Supply Chain Sector - The bulk supply chain sector is transitioning from traditional trading and logistics models to integrated service provider models, enhancing resource control and operational efficiency. Leading companies are learning from international experiences to improve their market positions [60][63]. - The sector is currently fragmented, with a low market share for leading firms (CR5 at around 5%). As domestic companies consolidate, there is potential for increased market share and profitability [63][64]. - The anti-involution trend is expected to stabilize the PPI, benefiting bulk supply chains as they recover from price declines. The sector is poised to benefit from price rebounds and improved demand conditions [65][66]. Investment Recommendations - Maintain a market-weight rating for the transportation industry, with a focus on improving domestic demand and sector recovery in 2026. Recommended stocks include China National Aviation (601111), Southern Airlines (600029), and Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) [72][74].

为持续引导投资者树立股东意识，积极行使股东权利，提升上市公司投资者关系管理水平，营造理性投资、价值投资、长期投资的市场氛围，9月17日，东 方证券联合上海证券交易所、上海市证券同业公会联合开展"我是股东"——走进沪市上市公司招商轮船（601872）活动顺利举行。东方证券投资者教育基地 组织高净值个人及机构投资者等30余位，实地参观了轮船招商总局，并与公司高管进行了深度交流。 "我是股东"走进上市公司活动自2013年启动以来，已陪伴投资者走过十余年历程，累计组织投资者走进沪市上市公司超过2000家次，仅2024年就达到450家 次，成为资本市场促进投资者与上市公司双向沟通、增强投资者获得感的重要品牌。 在投资者交流会现场，招商轮船董事会秘书孔康，董事会办公室总经理李漫、董事会办公室副总经理刘宇丰、ESG总监蔡晓华等出席活动。招商轮船董秘孔 康先生在致辞中向投资者重点介绍了公司近期在航运主业和ESG工作中取得的亮眼成绩，并强调公司始终将投资者回报和持股体验放在公司价值创造的核心 位置，让广大股东切实分享公司发展的成果。 据了解，招商轮船作为招商局旗下重点发展远洋运输的航运企业，经营和管理着大中华地区历史最悠久、最 ...