Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has raised its gold production target for 2026-2028 to 130-140 tons, aiming to rank among the top three globally in gold production by 2028, up from the previous target of 100-110 tons, with a potential to achieve the 100-ton mark by 2026 due to recent acquisitions [1][2]. Production Planning - The company plans to increase its gold production by 40-50 tons over the next three years, representing a 50% growth compared to the 2025 baseline [1]. - The growth rate for gold production is significantly higher than that of other industrial metals like copper, lead, and zinc [1][9]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue grew by approximately 28%, while its total profit surged by around 167%, indicating that the gold segment has been a major driver of profitability [4]. - In 2022, the company's copper production was 910,000 tons, projected to grow to 1,090,000 tons by 2025, a 20% increase, while gold production is expected to rise from 56 tons to 90 tons, a 61% increase [5]. Market Position - As of 2025, Zijin Mining's gold production is expected to be significantly higher than its closest competitor, Shandong Gold, and it has moved up in global rankings from 9th to 5th in gold production [7]. - The company aims to enhance its market position further, with a focus on gold and copper, which are expected to enter the top three globally by 2028 [10]. Strategic Focus - Zijin Mining's strategic focus has shifted towards its gold segment, which has become a core growth driver, as evidenced by its increased production targets and the prioritization of gold over copper in its production planning [4][9]. - The company has announced significant acquisitions, including a recent deal worth 28 billion yuan for gold assets in Africa, which is expected to contribute approximately 12 tons of gold production by 2025 [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 2.06% at 2.233 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (2.14%), Northern Rare Earth (2.97%), and Huayou Cobalt (1.49%) [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 118.94% since its inception on March 8, 2021, and a 5.03% return over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining (601899) has raised its gold production target for the next three years, aiming to increase its gold output to 130-140 tons by 2028, positioning itself among the top three globally in gold production [1][3]. Production Targets - The original target for gold production in 2028 was set at 100-110 tons, but due to recent acquisitions of gold mining assets, the company is likely to achieve an annual output of 100 tons two years ahead of schedule, by 2026 [2][3]. - The new target of 130-140 tons represents an increase of 40-50 tons over the next three years, which is a 50% growth compared to the 2025 baseline [3][16]. Comparison with Competitors - Currently, the largest gold producer globally is Newmont Corporation, with a projected output exceeding 180 tons by 2025. Zijin Mining still has at least 50% room for improvement to match Newmont's production levels [6][19]. - While Zijin Mining aims to enter the "global top three" in gold production, it faces a significant gap compared to Newmont but has a feasible chance to surpass the second and third-ranked companies, Agnico Eagle and Barrick Gold [7][21]. Strategic Focus on Gold - The company has significantly increased its focus on gold in its business portfolio, which has led to improvements in profits, market capitalization, and industry standing. The revenue from gold production has grown substantially, with a 167% increase in profit compared to a 28% increase in overall revenue [8][12]. - In the 2023-2025 production plan, copper was prioritized over gold, but in the 2026-2028 plan, gold has taken precedence, indicating its growing importance within the company's strategy [8]. Future Growth and Projects - Zijin Mining plans to continue focusing on its gold segment, with a projected increase in gold production that outpaces other metals like copper, lead, and zinc [16][17]. - The company is set to enhance its production capabilities through various projects, including the Norton Gold Mine in Australia and the Buriticá Gold Mine in Colombia, as well as new acquisitions in Africa [21][22].

Group 1: Real Estate Market - The preliminary clearance rate for property auctions in Australia reached 73.7%, the highest level since last year's spring selling season, up from 69.7% the previous week [1] - Sydney's clearance rate was 79.6%, the highest since August of last year, with 602 properties auctioned, a 31% increase from the previous week [1] - Melbourne's clearance rate was lower at 67.9%, with 638 properties auctioned [1] - Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, and Perth also showed strong clearance rates, with Brisbane at 69%, Adelaide at 83.6%, Canberra at 69.7%, and Perth at 75%, all higher than the same period last year [1] Group 2: Superannuation Industry - Major industry funds like AustralianSuper, Australian Retirement Trust, and Aware Super experienced significant member outflows in FY2025, with AustralianSuper facing a net redemption of over AUD 250 million [3][4] - Aware Super and Australian Retirement Trust lost AUD 400 million and AUD 1.3 billion respectively due to member exits [4] - Retail wealth platforms like HUB24 and Netwealth attracted substantial inflows, with HUB24 gaining AUD 7.5 billion and Netwealth AUD 4 billion during FY2025 [6] Group 3: Education Sector - Tuition fees for Sydney's top 10 private schools have risen significantly, with an average increase of 6.7% last year, yet most schools saw a decline in academic performance [10] - The Scots College remains the most expensive private school in New South Wales, with fees reaching AUD 52,770 for Year 12 in 2026, a 6.5% increase [10] - Several schools, including Kambala and Wenona, reported their worst rankings in a decade, despite fee increases [10] Group 4: Wine Industry - UBS downgraded Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) to "sell," citing deteriorating risk-reward dynamics amid industry headwinds [12][13] - TWE's stock fell 7.97% to AUD 5.08 following the downgrade, with the company facing challenges in its Penfolds and Americas businesses [14] - UBS lowered TWE's earnings forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027, predicting no dividends due to debt ratio concerns [13][15] Group 5: Mining and Resources - The Resourcing Tomorrow Hong Kong 2026 event will take place in April 2026, focusing on the evolving landscape of the mining and resources sector [18][19] - The event aims to address the changing dynamics of resource investment, emphasizing project feasibility and supply chain security [19][20] - Over 250 high-level participants, including representatives from major mining companies and financial institutions, are expected to attend [21][24] Group 6: Office Market - Australia's office vacancy rate has reached its highest level since 1996, climbing from 15.2% in August 2025 to 15.9% in January 2026 [36][37] - Major cities like Sydney and Melbourne are experiencing significant increases in vacancy rates, with Melbourne's rate rising to 19% [37] - Despite current challenges, there are signs of recovery in demand for high-quality office spaces, with expectations of reduced supply supporting market recovery [38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened with a gain of 2.07% at 1.135 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., with a return of 122.52% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, and a recent one-month return of 4.76% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi's report indicates that Zijin Mining (02899) is expected to achieve steady production growth in the coming years through existing mine expansion plans and acquisitions, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 39 [1] Production Guidance - Zijin Mining's production guidance for 2026 includes copper at 1.2 million tons, gold at 105 tons, lithium at 120,000 tons, zinc at 400,000 tons, silver at 520,000 tons, and molybdenum at 15,000 tons, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 17%, 380%, flat, 19%, and 36% respectively [1] - The production targets for 2028 are set at copper between 1.5 to 1.6 million tons, gold between 130 to 140 tons, lithium between 270,000 to 320,000 tons, zinc between 400,000 to 450,000 tons, silver between 600 to 700 tons, and molybdenum between 25,000 to 35,000 tons, with changes compared to previous guidance showing flat growth for copper and zinc, an increase of 30 tons for gold, an increase of 20,000 tons for lithium, and flat for silver and molybdenum [1] Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) - The compound annual growth rates from 2025 to 2028 for gold and copper are projected to be between 13% to 16% and 11% to 14% respectively, while lithium is expected to have a CAGR of 121% to 134% [1]

紫金公布其2026年至2028三年生产计划及至2035年的目标概要。2026年的生产指引为矿产铜120万吨、 金105吨、锂12万吨、锌40万吨、银52吨及钼1.5万吨，同比增长分别为10%、17%、380%、持平、19% 及36%。2028年的生产目标为矿产铜1.5至1.6百万吨、金130吨至140吨、锂27至32万吨、锌40至45万 吨、银600至700吨及钼2.5至3.5万吨，与此前指引相比，分别为持平、增加30吨、增加2万吨、减少15万 吨、持平及持平。意味着2025年至2028年间，矿产金和铜的年复合增长率分别为13%至16%及11%至 14%，而锂的年复合增长率预计为121%至134%。 花旗发布研报称，相信通过现有矿山的扩张计划及并购，紫金矿业（601899）(02899)的产量在未来几 年将持续稳健增长，维持首选推荐，目标价为39港元，评级"买入"。 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 02 月 09 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不改 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万）指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has announced its three-year production plan for major mineral products from 2026 to 2028, aiming to enhance its resource reserves and production capacity, with gold and copper output expected to rank among the top three globally by 2028 [1][3] Group 1: Production Plans and Goals - The company plans to produce 105 tons of gold, 120,000 tons of copper, 520 tons of silver, 400,000 tons of zinc/lead, 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, and 15,000 tons of molybdenum by 2026 [1] - By 2028, Zijin Mining aims to further improve its rankings in resource reserves, production output, sales revenue, asset scale, and profit [1] Group 2: Performance and Capacity Expansion - Zijin Mining is focused on maximizing the production capacity of its key mineral products, particularly in the lithium sector, and is set to launch several major construction projects [3] - The company is accelerating production at several gold mines, including those in Papua New Guinea, Australia, Colombia, Guyana, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, while also enhancing domestic production capabilities [3] - In the copper sector, Zijin Mining is expediting the production capacity of its three major copper mines, including the Jilong Copper Mine and the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Forecast - Zijin Mining expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [5] - The company anticipates an increase in the production of major mineral products in 2025, including approximately 90 tons of gold and 1.09 million tons of copper [5] Group 4: Recent Acquisitions and Developments - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, has signed an agreement to acquire Allied Gold Corporation for approximately 5.5 billion Canadian dollars (about 28 billion yuan), which includes several gold mining assets [6] - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine has been completed, increasing its production capacity to 350,000 tons per day, with significant increases in annual copper and molybdenum production expected [7]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.34%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.76% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF from Yinhua (159318) gained 1.64%, and the Technology ETF from Penghua (159751) increased by 1.79% [1] Sector Performance - The insurance and communication equipment sectors showed the highest gains, while the energy equipment and services sector experienced the largest declines [1] Individual Stock Movements - Lanke Technology surged over 63%, followed by Zhipu with a 36.22% increase, and MINIMAX-WP rising by 11.71% [1] - Notable gainers also included: - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) up 11.43% - China Duty Free (601888) up 8.31% - Innovent Biologics up 7.42% - SANY Heavy Industry (600031) up 7.12% [1] - Other significant increases were seen in: - Laopu Gold up 6.35% - Fast Retailing up 6.26% - Pop Mart up 5.76% - Zijin Mining (601899) up 5.58% - Weichai Power (000338) up 5.23% - Minmetals Resources up 5.0% - Ping An Insurance up 4.88% - Swire Properties up 4.71% - Zhaojin Mining up 4.21% - China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951) up 4.17% - SMIC up 4.07% [1] - On the downside, Xixiangfeng Group fell by 5.88%, and Weilu Group dropped by 15.47% [1] - Noteworthy gainers included Changfei Optical Fiber (601869) with a 15.31% increase and Dongfang Electric (600875) up 14.34% [1]