- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]

有色ETF银华（159871）业绩比较基准为中证有色金属指数收益率，管理人为银华基金管理股份有限公 司，基金经理为谭跃峰，成立（2021-03-10）以来回报为126.71%，近一个月回报为16.79%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月4日，有色ETF银华（159871）开盘涨1.72%，报2.301元。有色ETF银华（159871）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨1.78%，洛阳钼业涨3.98%，北方稀土涨0.35%，华友钴业涨1.70%，中国铝业涨1.75%，赣 锋锂业跌0.29%，山东黄金涨0.39%，云铝股份涨1.17%，中金黄金涨0.18%，中矿资源涨1.14%。 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月4日，有色ETF华宝（159876）开盘涨2.15%，报1.188元。有色ETF华宝（159876）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨1.78%，洛阳钼业涨3.98%，北方稀土涨0.35%，华友钴业涨1.70%，中国铝业涨1.75%，赣 锋锂业跌0.29%，山东黄金涨0.39%，云铝股份涨1.17%，中金黄金涨0.18%，江西铜业涨3.00%。 有色ETF华宝（159876）业绩比较基准为中证有色金属指数收益率，管理人为华宝基金管理有限公司， 基金经理为陈建华，成立（2021-03-12）以来回报为132.74%，近一个月回报为16.91%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Market Overview - On February 4, the A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative and the ChiNext Index dropping over 2%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [1]. Sector Performance - The space photovoltaic concept showed strong performance, with Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit and Guosheng Technology achieving two consecutive limits. The airport and shipping sectors also performed well, with China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines reaching their daily limits. The real estate sector was active, with Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development hitting their daily limits. The hydrogen energy concept surged, with Jingcheng Co. and Zhiyuan New Energy reaching their daily limits [4]. - The coal sector experienced a significant surge, with major coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Coal Energy both hitting their daily limits. Other stocks such as Shaanxi Black Cat and Meijin Energy also reached their daily limits, while Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, Shanxi Coal International, Xinji Energy, and China Shenhua followed suit [4]. Coal Supply Impact - Reports indicate that the Indonesian government has proposed a significant production cut, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners. China is the largest importer of Indonesian coal, with an expected import of 242 million tons in 2024, accounting for 42.73% of Indonesia's total exports. This suspension is projected to impact China's thermal coal supply by 5.3%, increasing inventory pressure on power plants in Southeast China. Additionally, there are reports of rising coal prices domestically [6]. Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector opened with a rebound but later turned negative, with companies like Zijin Mining and Hunan Gold experiencing declines. The National Investment Silver LOF resumed trading and hit the daily limit down, with a latest premium rate of 64.6%. After significant drops on January 30 and February 2, spot gold prices rebounded to over $5000, while spot silver reached $88 per ounce [7]. - Market sentiment remains volatile, with speculative funds showing significant movement. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to pose risks. Overall, the precious metals market is influenced heavily by market emotions, with short-term volatility risks to be monitored, while long-term trends remain optimistic [7]. Individual Stock Highlights - Guizhou Moutai's stock rose over 2%, reaching a price above 1500 yuan for the first time since September 15, 2025 [8]. Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2%, with many tech stocks in Hong Kong experiencing declines. Notable drops included Bilibili down over 4%, Tencent Holdings down over 3%, and other companies like Baidu, Lenovo, NetEase, Meituan, and Xiaomi all falling over 2% [9]. Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective downturn, with Bitcoin experiencing a high-level correction of nearly 40% [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the HuShen 300 Growth ETF managed by Huaxia Fund Management, which has seen a return of 28.50% since its inception on September 5, 2023, and a return of 3.61% over the past month [1][1][1] - As of the midday close on February 4, the HuShen 300 Growth ETF (159523) decreased by 0.31%, with a trading volume of 2.2597 million yuan [1][1][1] - The top holdings of the ETF include companies such as CATL, which rose by 1.58%, Kweichow Moutai, which increased by 2.01%, and Zijin Mining, which saw a slight increase of 0.05% [1][1][1] Group 2 - Other notable stock performances within the ETF include Sunlight Power, which fell by 0.27%, Haiguang Information, which dropped by 3.51%, and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, which decreased by 2.14% [1][1][1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Select 300 Growth Innovation Strategy Index return rate [1][1][1] - The fund manager is Zhao Zongting, indicating a specific leadership in the management of the ETF [1][1][1]

消息面上，在经历了1月30日、2月2日两个交易日的暴跌之后，现货黄金价格连续第二天反弹，重新站上5000美元大关。2月4日早盘交易中，现货黄金一度 涨超2%，前一交易日涨幅超过6%。 2月4日，A股贵金属板块开盘全线反弹后重挫翻绿，随后呈低位震荡走势。个股方面，截至10:14，盛达资源涨超2%，恒邦股份、紫金矿业、贵研铂业、湖 南黄金等多只贵金属概念股跟涨，昨日"一字"跌停的湖南白银也有反弹迹象。 对于本轮黄金反弹原因，中信建投期货在最新研报中表示，贵金属在经历了前期的快速下跌后，市场对沃什"鹰派"疑虑有所缓解，市场风险有所释放，再度 开启交易去美元化、地缘秩序变革等长线利多因素。 值得注意的是，中信建投警告投资者，贵金属日内波动仍然剧烈，投机资金进出仍然明显，市场风险依然存在。消息面，美伊谈判艰难，目前双方就谈判地 点仍未达成共识，地缘不确定性仍存。总体来看，当下贵金属行情受市场情绪影响较强，需关注短期波动风险，长期走势仍趋于乐观。 国信期货亦提示贵金属波动风险。短期内，在避险情绪与政策预期双重作用下，金银预计将维持高波动、宽幅震荡的格局。 策略方面，国信期货建议将风险控制置于绝对优先地位。已有黄金多单可继 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29% to close at 4067.74 points, with a daily high of 4069.42 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.19% to close at 14127.11 points, reaching a peak of 14129.6 points [2] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.86%, closing at 3324.89 points, with a maximum of 3332.48 points [2] Margin Trading and Securities Lending - The total margin trading and securities lending balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26,977.76 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 26,810.52 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 167.24 billion yuan [3] - The margin trading and securities lending balance decreased by 25.79 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] - The Shanghai market's margin trading balance was 13,685.83 billion yuan, down by 42.8 billion yuan from the previous day, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 13,291.92 billion yuan, up by 17.01 billion yuan [3] Top Margin Buying Stocks - The top three stocks by margin buying amount were: - Xinyi Technology (300502.SZ) with 4.719 billion yuan - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) with 3.37 billion yuan - Xinwei Communication (300136.SZ) with 2.499 billion yuan [4] Fund Issuance - Three new funds were issued yesterday: - Nuoan Zhiying Preferred Three-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF) C - Nuoan Zhiying Preferred Three-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF) A - Bodao Xinghang Mixed Fund [5] Top Net Buying by Brokerage Firms - The top ten net buying amounts by brokerage firms were: - Aerospace Development (000547.SZ) with 1,294.43 million yuan - Tongyu Communication (002792.SZ) with 607.89 million yuan - Hailanxin (300065.SZ) with 522.07 million yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in metal prices, particularly precious metals like gold and silver, has significantly benefited upstream mining companies, while downstream processing industries are facing cost pressures due to rising raw material prices [2][3][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices have rebounded, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 1% [1]. - Silver prices have also seen substantial increases, with the London spot silver price rising from under $29 per ounce to over $121 per ounce, marking a maximum increase of 330% [2]. Group 2: Mining Companies' Profitability - Major mining companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to report significant net profits, with Zijin Mining's projected net profit reaching 52 billion yuan, a 59% year-on-year increase, and Luoyang Molybdenum's projected net profit at 20.8 billion yuan, a 47.8% to 53.71% increase [3][4]. - Other mining companies are also experiencing substantial profit growth, with Shenghe Resources' net profit expected to increase by up to 339% and Huayu Mining by up to 255% [3]. Group 3: Downstream Industry Challenges - The downstream processing sector is facing significant cost pressures due to rising prices of raw materials, which are not being fully passed down the supply chain [5]. - Companies like Loping Zinc Electric are reporting losses due to increased procurement costs for zinc concentrate, highlighting the challenges faced by the downstream industry [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown strong performance, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, and a further increase to 50.81% in the third quarter [7][8]. - The non-ferrous mining index has demonstrated a ten-year annualized growth rate of nearly 15%, indicating strong long-term performance potential [6][10]. - Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for precious metals, citing ongoing demand and macroeconomic factors that support price stability [11].

截至2026年2月4日 09:56，中证细分有色金属产业主题指数(000811)下跌0.32%。成分股方面涨跌互现，神火股份领涨1.73%，中国铝业上涨1.60%，洛阳钼业 上涨1.51%；西部黄金领跌6.55%，华峰铝业下跌5.00%，赤峰黄金下跌4.80%。有色ETF汇添富(159652)上涨0.05%，最新价报1.95元。拉长时间看，截至 2026年2月3日，有色ETF汇添富近2周累计上涨2.59%，涨幅排名可比基金1/2。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 流动性方面，有色ETF汇添富盘中换手2.21%，成交1.43亿元。拉长时间看，截至2月3日，有色ETF汇添富近1周日均成交8.87亿元。 值得一提的是，有色ETF汇添富(159652)盘中净申购已达1200万份，按盘中成交均价估算，净申购金额已超2350万元。 规模方面，有色ETF汇添富最新规模达64.03亿元。（数据来源：Wind） 资金流入方面，有色ETF汇添富最新资金净流入5156.28万元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"9656.93万元，日均净流入达 1931.39万元。（数据来源：Wind） 消息面 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.80% [3][4] - The Hong Kong market also opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.14% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.87% [5][6] Sector Performance - The storage chip sector experienced significant declines, with companies like Deep Kangjia A hitting the daily limit down, and others such as Puran, Lanke Technology, Baiwei Storage, and Shannon Chip also opening lower [2] - The AI computing power industry chain saw a downturn, particularly in the storage and CPO sectors, while semiconductor and consumer electronics themes were among the hardest hit [4] - Conversely, gold, basic metals, and oil and gas sectors showed signs of rebound [4]