Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating strong growth potential and favorable industry conditions [3][41]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a global mining leader over more than 30 years, with significant mining investments in 17 provinces in China and 15 countries abroad. As of the end of 2023, the company holds substantial resources: 74.56 million tons of copper, 2,998 tons of gold, 10.68 million tons of zinc (lead), 14,739 tons of silver, and 1.347 million tons of lithium equivalent [3][32]. - The report highlights a growing demand for copper and gold, with expectations of price increases due to supply constraints and macroeconomic factors. The company is projected to benefit from these trends, with significant increases in production anticipated by 2028 [3][34]. - The company's revenue and profit have shown consistent growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% in revenue and 49% in net profit from 2019 to 2023. The report forecasts revenues of 325.4 billion, 361.7 billion, and 396 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [15][41]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company has developed a unique mining management model and has a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder being the Finance Bureau of Shanghang County [8][9]. - The management team is experienced, with key members having over 20 years of service in the company, contributing to its strategic direction and operational excellence [12][13]. Section 2: Market Dynamics - The report notes that global copper supply is under pressure due to low capital expenditures in the mining sector, leading to a long-term supply shortage. The average copper grade has been declining, which increases operational costs [19][21]. - The demand for copper has been recovering, particularly driven by the growth in the renewable energy sector, with global refined copper consumption expected to reach 26.55 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.78% [23][26]. Section 3: Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, estimating the company's revenues and profits for the next three years, with a focus on the expected growth in copper and gold production. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 1.19, 1.37, and 1.56 yuan, respectively [41][43]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a rise in copper and gold prices could significantly enhance the company's profitability, with estimates showing that a 1,000 yuan increase in copper price could boost profits by approximately 540 million yuan [36][38].

证券代码：601899 股票简称：紫金矿业 编号：临 2024-048 紫金矿业集团股份有限公司 关于贯彻落实"提质增效重回报" 实施2024年半年度利润分配方案的公告 根据公司 2023 年年度股东大会审议通过的《公司未来三年(2023-2025 年度)股东 分红回报规划》，在满足现金分红条件的前提下，公司 2023-2025 年度以现金方式累计 分配的利润原则上不少于三年累计实现可供分配利润总额的 30%。 特此公告。 紫金矿业集团股份有限公司 董 事 会 二〇二四年七月二十日 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2024 年上半年，紫金矿业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）紧紧围绕上市公 司高质量发展首要任务，以"提质、控本、增效"为工作总方针，主要经济指标再创历 史新高，实现矿产铜约 51.8 万吨，矿产金约 35.4 吨，预计半年度实现归属于上市公司 股东的净利润约人民币 145.5-154.5 亿元，同比增加约 41%-50%。 为践行"以投资者为本"的上市公司发展理念，积极响应上海证券交易所《关于开 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 18.48 CNY [1][15]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a historical high in Q2 2024 with a projected net profit of approximately 82.9-91.9 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of about 71%-89% [5][6]. - The company's main products have seen significant growth in both volume and price, contributing to a strong performance in the first half of 2024 [6][7]. - The company has made substantial progress in internal exploration and external acquisitions, enhancing its resource base [7][8]. - Key projects are advancing smoothly, with a strong outlook for growth in both copper and gold production [8][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 293,403 million CNY in 2023, with projections of 376,666 million CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 28% [5][13]. - The net profit for 2023 was 21,119 million CNY, with an expected increase to 31,216 million CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 48% [5][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.79 CNY in 2024 to 1.71 CNY by 2026 [5][13]. Production and Resource Expansion - In H1 2024, the company achieved gold production of approximately 35.4 tons, copper production of about 51.8 million tons, and silver production of around 210.3 tons, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 5.3%, and 1.3% [6][7]. - The average price of gold in H1 2024 was 523.07 CNY per gram, up 20.44% year-on-year, while copper averaged 74,776.41 CNY per ton, an increase of 10.22% [6][7]. - The company has successfully increased its copper metal resources by 1,837.7 million tons through exploration and acquisitions [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% for copper and 15% for gold over the next two years [8][10]. - Significant projects, including the Kamoa Copper Mine and the expansion of existing operations, are expected to enhance production capacity significantly [8][10]. - The lithium projects are also progressing, with potential production capacity of 15,000 tons by 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with estimates ranging from approximately 145.5 to 154.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of about 41% to 50% [2] - The production of gold, copper, and silver has increased, contributing to a substantial rise in profitability, with Q2 2024 net profit estimates showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 70.5% to 89.1% [3] - The company has announced a new five-year plan aiming to position its copper production among the top three globally by 2028 [4] - Significant breakthroughs in resource exploration have been achieved, with new copper metal resources amounting to 1,837.7 million tons, which is about 14.2% of China's copper reserves as of the end of 2022 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company expects gold, copper, and silver production to be approximately 35.4 tons, 518,000 tons, and 210.3 tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 5.3%, and 1.3% [3] - The average prices for copper, gold, and silver in H1 2024 increased by 10.3%, 20.5%, and 28.0% year-on-year [3] - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 are 315.37 billion yuan, 382.38 billion yuan, and 443.55 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.19, 1.44, and 1.67 yuan [6] Production and Pricing - The company reported a significant increase in production and sales prices for its main mineral products, leading to a substantial rise in profitability [3] - The average prices for Q2 2024 showed year-on-year increases of 19.3% for copper, 23.8% for gold, and 36.5% for silver [3] Strategic Planning - The five-year plan includes production targets of 1.22 million tons of copper by 2025 and 1.5 to 1.6 million tons by 2028, with gold production targets of 85 tons and 100 to 110 tons, respectively [4] - The company aims to enhance its position in the global market for copper, gold, and zinc, with projections indicating it could rank third in copper and zinc production by 2028 [4] Resource Development - The company has made significant progress in resource exploration, with new copper metal reserves that significantly contribute to its competitive advantage [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining (601899) is "Recommended" (maintained) [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 145.5-154.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 41%-50% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 35%-43% [2]. - The significant profit growth is driven by an increase in both volume and price of mineral products, with copper production up 5.3% to 518,000 tons, gold production up 9.6% to 35.4 tons, and silver production up 1.3% to 210.3 tons in the first half of 2024 [2]. - The average price of electrolytic copper increased by 10% year-on-year to 74,640 yuan/ton, gold by 20% to 521 yuan/gram, and silver by 28% to 6,790 yuan/kilogram in the first half of 2024 [2]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in exploration and resource addition, with a total of 5.777 million tons of new copper metal resources added, accounting for approximately 14.2% of China's copper reserves as of the end of 2022 [2]. - The company’s self-exploration capabilities are strong, with over 50% of copper and gold resources and over 90% of zinc (lead) resources obtained through self-exploration, resulting in significantly lower exploration costs compared to global peers [2]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for copper, gold, zinc (lead), silver, lithium, and molybdenum production from 2023 to 2028 is 9%, 9%, 4%, 10%, 147%, and 30%, respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is 343.26 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of 16.99% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 318.33 billion yuan for 2024, with a profit growth rate of 50.73% [6]. - The diluted EPS for 2024 is expected to be 1.20 yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 15.35 [6]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be 18.44% in 2024 [6]. - The total assets are expected to reach 3,805.45 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 52.49% [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its performance for the first half of 2024, with projected net profit ranging from approximately 145.5 to 154.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 41% to 50% [2] - The increase in performance is primarily attributed to the growth in production of key mineral products and the rise in sales prices of gold, copper, and silver [2] - The company has set ambitious production targets for 2030, aiming to rank among the top 3 to 5 globally in copper and gold production, and top 10 in lithium production [2] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - For Q2 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of approximately 82.89 to 91.89 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 32.40% to 46.77% and a year-on-year growth of approximately 70.55% to 89.06% [2] - The production figures for H1 2024 are expected to show a year-on-year increase: gold production at about 35.4 tons (+9.6%), copper production at approximately 518,000 tons (+5.3%), and silver production at around 210.3 tons (+1.3%) [2] Price Trends - In Q2 2024, the average prices for gold, silver, and copper have increased: gold at 2338.26 USD/oz (+12.71% QoQ, +18.21% YoY), silver at 28.86 USD/oz (+23.44% QoQ, +19.26% YoY), and copper at 9873.01 USD/ton (+15.61% QoQ, +16.49% YoY) [2] Resource Expansion - The company has made significant breakthroughs in resource exploration, with the addition of 18.377 million tons of copper metal resources from its projects, accounting for approximately 14.2% of China's copper reserves as of the end of 2022 [3] - The company’s geological exploration has a competitive advantage, with exploration costs significantly lower than the global industry average [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 3411.86 billion yuan, 3698.85 billion yuan, and 3924.63 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +16.29%, +8.41%, and +6.10% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 315.90 billion yuan, 384.77 billion yuan, and 448.75 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +49.58%, +21.80%, and +16.63% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.19 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.69 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is "Buy" (maintained) [2][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in profits for the first half of 2024, with a projected net profit increase of 41%-50% year-on-year, amounting to approximately 145.5-154.5 billion yuan [3][4]. - The rise in copper and gold prices, along with increased production, is driving the positive outlook for the company's earnings [3][4]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 319.7 billion yuan, 367.7 billion yuan, and 414.0 billion yuan respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024H1, the company anticipates a net profit of approximately 145.5-154.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 41%-50% [3]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is projected at 31.973 billion yuan, reflecting a 51.4% increase compared to 2023 [7]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 270.329 billion yuan in 2022 to 339.064 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 15.6% year-on-year growth [7]. Production and Pricing - In 2024H1, the company expects gold production to reach approximately 35.4 tons, copper production around 51.8 million tons, and silver production about 210.3 tons, with respective year-on-year increases of 9.6%, 5.3%, and 1.3% [4]. - The prices of copper, gold, and silver have shown significant increases, with year-on-year rises of 18.6%, 18.2%, and 18.8% respectively in Q2 2024 [4]. Resource Expansion - The company announced a significant increase in copper metal resources from its Giant Dragon and Copper Mountain mines, adding 1,837.7 million tons of copper resources and 577.7 million tons of copper reserves, which is about 14.2% of China's copper reserves as of the end of 2022 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 22.40 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from significant price increases in copper and gold, alongside production growth and cost reductions, leading to a substantial increase in performance [2]. - The company is gradually building a diversified asset portfolio in copper, gold, lithium, and molybdenum, enhancing its investment value [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be between 145.5 billion CNY and 154.5 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 41% to 50% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 31.575 billion CNY and 37.215 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 49.5% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 1.19 CNY, with further projections of 1.40 CNY for 2025 and 1.58 CNY for 2026 [2][3]. Production and Pricing - The company reported a production increase in gold, copper, and silver for the first half of 2024, with year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 5.3%, and 1.3% respectively [2]. - The average selling prices for copper, gold, and silver increased by 10%, 20%, and 28% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [2]. Cost Management - The average sales cost for gold and copper in Q1 2024 was 223 CNY per gram and 22,400 CNY per ton, showing a decrease of 7% and 10% respectively compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a downward trend in costs in Q2 2024 [2]. Competitive Advantage - The company has a significant cost advantage, with its copper C1 cost and gold AISC cost ranking in the top 20% globally [2]. - The company plans to increase its gold and copper production to 90 tons and 1.17 million tons by 2025, representing a growth of 32% and 16% respectively compared to 2023 [2]. Diversification Strategy - The company currently holds substantial resources in copper and gold, with 75 million tons and 30,000 tons respectively, and is expanding into lithium, molybdenum, and silver [2]. - The diversified asset portfolio is expected to enhance the company's investment value, especially with the anticipated price resonance of copper and gold during the upcoming interest rate cuts [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Zijin Mining, with a target price of 22.75 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price [1][2]. Core Insights - Zijin Mining's performance exceeded expectations, driven by increases in gold, silver, and copper production and prices. The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 145.5-154.5 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 41%-50% [1][2]. - The second quarter is projected to show a net profit of 82.9-91.9 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71%-89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32%-47% [2]. - The report highlights that the prices of gold, silver, and copper have significantly risen due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and economic data from the US and China, which are expected to sustain high profitability in the future [2]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 293.4 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to reach 346.8 billion CNY, reflecting an 18.2% increase [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 21.1 billion CNY for 2023, with a significant increase to 31.8 billion CNY in 2024, representing a growth rate of 50.7% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.79 CNY in 2023 to 1.20 CNY in 2024, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6].

2024 年 7 月 9 日 公司研究 2024Q2 单季度归母扣非净利润中值约 91 亿元,创单季历史新高 ——紫金矿业(601899.SH)公告点评 要点 事件 :紫金矿业于 2024 年 7 月 8 日晚公告 2024 年上半年业绩预告,预计 2024 年半年度实现归母净利润约 145.5-154.5 亿元,同比增加约41%-50%。预计2024 年半年度实现归母扣非净利润约 148.5-157.5 亿元,同比增加约 54%-63%。按 中值计算,2024Q2 实现归母净利润 87.4 亿元,环比增长 39.5%,同比增长 79.8%;归母扣非净利润 90.7 亿元,环比增长 45.8%,同比增长 111.7%。 点评: 量:2024H1 矿产金铜银产量同比增加。2024 年上半年公司预计矿产金产量约 35.4 吨,同比增长 9.6%(上年同期:32.3 吨);矿产铜产量约 51.8 万吨,同 比增长 5.3%(上年同期:49.2 万吨);矿产银产量约 210.3 吨,同比增长 1.3% (上年同期:207.6 吨)。 价:2024Q2 金铜银价格同比、环比上涨明显。2024Q2 COMEX 黄金、LM ...