半导体行业 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2025/04/11-2025/04/24） 行 业 半导体板块 Q1 业绩有望实现同比增长 投资要点： 风险提示：终端需求不及预期、国产替代不及预期、价格竞争加剧等。 2025 年 4 月 25 日 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 行 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind | 1.半导体行业行情回顾 | | 3 | 2.半导体产业新闻 | | 4 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.公司公告与动态 | | 5 | 4.半导体产业数据更新 | | 8 | | | | 4.1 | 智能手 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 50.76% in Q1 2025, reaching 2.4 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 75.33%, amounting to 506 million yuan [4][5]. - The company's contract liabilities surged to 3.237 billion yuan by the end of March 2025, up from 903 million yuan at the end of 2024, reflecting strong order demand [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 61.19%, a slight decrease of 1.68 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin improved to 29.74%, an increase of 4.97 percentage points [5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 14.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 59.8% [10]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 3.686 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 90.9% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.59 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 93.95 for 2025, 64.57 for 2026, and 47.64 for 2027 [10][12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned to benefit from the accelerated domestic replacement of CPU and AI chips, with its main CPU product, Haiguang No. 3, leading in performance within the domestic market [6]. - The latest AI chip product, DCU, is expected to rank among the top domestic AI chips, with strong compatibility with the CUDA ecosystem, enhancing its market potential [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [7][12]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.76%, and net profit of 506 million yuan, up 75.33% year-on-year [1][2]. - A significant increase in contract liabilities, which reached 3.237 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, compared to 903 million yuan at the end of 2024, suggests a strong demand outlook [2][3]. - The company has established a robust ecosystem by collaborating with nearly 5,000 enterprises, universities, and research institutions, enhancing its technological capabilities and product offerings [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operations of 2.522 billion yuan, a substantial improvement from a negative cash flow of 68 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The company’s inventory stood at approximately 5.8 billion yuan, with prepaid accounts increasing by 31% to 1.62 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Technological Leadership - The company focuses on continuous R&D, with 90.18% of its technical staff holding master's degrees or higher, ensuring its technological edge in the market [4]. - The DCU (Data Center Unit) developed by the company supports various precision computing capabilities, making it suitable for scientific and AI applications [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in its CPU business and enhance its DCU business, with projected net profits of 3.076 billion yuan, 4.441 billion yuan, and 6.144 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6]. - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 113, 78, and 56, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.76%, and net profit of 506 million yuan, up 75.33% year-on-year [1][2]. - A significant increase in contract liabilities indicates sustained demand, with contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 reaching 3.237 billion yuan, up from 903 million yuan at the end of 2024, reflecting a strong market demand [2][3]. - The company has established a robust ecosystem by collaborating with nearly 5,000 enterprises, universities, and research institutions, enhancing its product offerings in general-purpose and AI computing markets [3][4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.076 billion yuan, 4.441 billion yuan, and 6.144 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 113, 78, and 56 [5][6]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth trajectory with expected revenues of 13.868 billion yuan in 2025, 19.588 billion yuan in 2026, and 26.859 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 51.4%, 41.3%, and 37.1% respectively [6][10]. - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with 90.18% of its technical staff holding master's degrees or higher, ensuring its technological leadership in the industry [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 506 million yuan, up 75.33% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company's gross margin stood at 61.19%, with a net profit margin of 29.74%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.97 percentage points [7]. - The increase in contract liabilities and inventory to 3.2 billion yuan and 5.8 billion yuan respectively supports future performance growth [8]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 2.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 506 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 442 million yuan, showing growth rates of 50.76%, 75.33%, and 62.63% respectively [7]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, with net operating cash flow of 2.522 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [8]. - The company’s total assets and liabilities are projected to grow, with revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 13.767 billion, 18.543 billion, and 25.266 billion yuan respectively [12][13]. Market Position and Product Development - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic DCU and CPU market, with products that have broad applicability across various sectors including telecommunications, finance, and education [11]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are expected to accelerate the domestic chip industry's development, enhancing the company's competitive edge [9][10]. - The company’s products are noted for their versatility and ecosystem advantages, which are crucial for maintaining market leadership [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with the rating maintained [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with a year-over-year revenue increase of 50.76% and a net profit increase of 75.33% [6] - The demand in the downstream market for AI and trusted computing continues to be strong, validating the company's product competitiveness [6] - The company is expected to achieve rapid growth driven by its leadership in high-end CPU and DPU processors, with projected revenues of 142.09 billion, 203.34 billion, and 271.69 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.00 billion and a net profit of 5.06 billion, with a gross margin of 61.19% and a net margin of 29.74% [6] - The company's contract liabilities increased significantly to 32.37 billion by the end of Q1 2025, compared to 9.03 billion at the end of 2024, indicating strong demand and prepayments from customers [6] - The company’s inventory also rose to 57.94 billion, reflecting proactive stockpiling in response to market demand [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 29.79 billion in 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 54.25%, and an EPS of 1.28 [5][6] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 282.86 in 2023 to 119.95 in 2025, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [5][8] Market Comparison - The company is positioned as a leader in the semiconductor industry, with a significant market capitalization of approximately 357.30 billion [1][7] - Comparatively, the average P/S ratio for similar companies is around 53.51 for 2025, suggesting the company is competitively valued [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 506 million yuan, up 75.33% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 61.19% [1] - The company has a strong R&D capability, with 2,157 R&D personnel accounting for 90.18% of the workforce, and R&D expenses of 2.91 billion yuan in 2024 and 706 million yuan in Q1 2025 [1] CPU Business - The CPU business is expected to benefit significantly from the trend of domestic substitution, leveraging the X86 architecture and its performance and ecosystem compatibility advantages [2] - According to IDC, the shipment volume of China's server market is projected to grow by 16.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with the X86 server market expected to reach 4.6 million units and a market size of 62 billion USD by 2028 [2] - The Haiguang CPU series, including 7000, 5000, and 3000, is positioned to be widely used across various industries such as telecommunications, finance, internet, education, transportation, industrial design, and graphics processing [2] DCU Business - The DCU business is poised to benefit from the AI industry wave, utilizing GPGPU architecture with advantages in high performance and full precision capabilities [3] - The CAGR for China's AI chip market from 2019 to 2024 is projected at 64.8% according to Zhongshan Industrial Research Institute [3] - Haiguang's DCU, with its GPGPU architecture and proprietary DTK software stack, is expected to find applications in deep learning training, inference scenarios, and large model scenarios [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a dual-driven strategy of "CPU + DCU," leveraging the X86 instruction framework and "CUDA-like" ecosystem advantages [4] - Revenue projections for the company are 13.743 billion yuan, 19.241 billion yuan, and 25.013 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 3.521 billion yuan, 4.911 billion yuan, and 6.341 billion yuan respectively [4] - Given the high demand for AI computing power, the company is assigned a target price of 177.4 yuan based on a 30x PS for 2025, maintaining an "Accumulate-A" investment rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 177 yuan [2][10]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated continuous high growth, with total revenue reaching 9.162 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.40%, and a net profit of 1.931 billion yuan, up 52.87% [2][10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 50.76% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 506 million yuan, which is a 75.33% increase [2][10]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with 3.446 billion yuan invested in 2024, accounting for 37.61% of total revenue, and a 22.63% increase compared to the previous year [10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI inference, with expectations of sustained high growth in performance due to the launch of its new product, ShenSan 3 [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue of 9.162 billion yuan, net profit of 1.931 billion yuan, and a net profit margin of 29.7% [5][10]. - **2025 Projections**: Expected revenue of 13.738 billion yuan and net profit of 2.902 billion yuan, with growth rates of 49.9% and 50.3% respectively [5][10]. - **2026-2027 Forecasts**: Revenue is projected to reach 19.503 billion yuan in 2026 and 26.327 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits of 4.219 billion yuan and 5.724 billion yuan respectively [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive ecosystem involving nearly 5,000 partners across the supply chain, enhancing its capabilities in chip design and industry applications [10]. - The domestic market for its products is expanding, driven by increasing demand for localized solutions in critical sectors such as finance, telecommunications, and transportation [10]. - The company’s CPU and DCU products are increasingly being adopted in data centers and computing platforms, supporting the integration of intelligent and numerical computing [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 510 million yuan, up 75.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [6] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, with Q1 2025 R&D expenses reaching 760 million yuan, a 16.3% increase year-on-year, accounting for 31.8% of revenue [6] - Strong downstream order demand is reflected in the significant increase in contract liabilities, which reached 3.24 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 258.3% from the previous year [6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic GPU chip replacement trend due to increased restrictions on high-end GPU exports to China [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.01 billion yuan (+52.9%), 19.18 billion yuan (+36.9%), and 24.59 billion yuan (+28.2%) respectively [7] - Net profit projections for the same period are 2.96 billion yuan (+53.5%), 3.69 billion yuan (+24.6%), and 4.17 billion yuan (+12.9%) respectively [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.28 yuan, 1.59 yuan, and 1.79 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 119, 96, and 85 for the same years [7] Business Segmentation - The high-end processor segment is expected to generate revenues of 13.98 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 52.5% and a gross margin of 63.2% [7] - The technology services segment is projected to see revenues of 33.4 million yuan in 2025, with an extraordinary growth rate of 14,660% and a stable gross margin of 71% [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, Haiguang Information, reported a significant revenue increase of 50.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 2.4 billion yuan, and a net profit of 510 million yuan, up 75.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [6] - The company is experiencing strong demand for its products, with a notable increase in contract liabilities, indicating robust downstream order demand [6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic GPU chip replacement trend due to increased restrictions on high-end GPU exports to China [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.01 billion yuan (+52.9%), 19.18 billion yuan (+36.9%), and 24.59 billion yuan (+28.2%) respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.96 billion yuan (+53.5%), 3.69 billion yuan (+24.6%), and 4.17 billion yuan (+12.9%) respectively [7] - The company’s EPS is expected to grow from 1.28 yuan in 2025 to 1.79 yuan in 2027 [7] - The company’s ROE is projected to increase from 15.78% in 2025 to 16.22% in 2027 [2] Business Segmentation - The high-end processor segment is expected to generate revenues of 13.98 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 52.5% and a gross margin of 63.2% [7] - The technology services segment is projected to see a dramatic revenue increase of 14,660% in 2025, with a stable gross margin of 71% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-intensity R&D investments in the computer and AI markets, with R&D expenses reaching 760 million yuan in Q1 2025, accounting for 31.8% of revenue [6] - The company’s CPU products are compatible with the x86 instruction set and widely used across critical industries, while its DCU products are based on GPGPU architecture, catering to big data processing and AI applications [6]