地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/11 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 美债收益率集体下跌，2 年期美债收益率跌 7.24 个基点报 3.538%，3 年期美 债收益率跌 6.39 个基点报 3.589%，5 年期美债收益率跌 5.59 个基点报 3.731%， 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.51 个基点报 4.149% ...

格隆汇12月11日｜深交所公告，"21万科06"(149568)盘中成交价较前收盘价首次下跌达到或超过20%， 根据《深圳证券交易所债券交易规则》和《关于对债券匹配成交实施盘中临时停牌有关事项的通知》等 有关规定，本所自今日10时38分19秒起对该债券实施临时停牌，于11时08分20秒复牌。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储如期降息25基点，启动"技术性扩表" 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明 ...

12月10日A股收盘，主要指数呈现分化态势，上证指数跌0.23%报3900.5点，深证成指涨0.29%报13316.42点，创 业板指微跌0.02%；沪深两市合计成交额1.78万亿元，较前一交易日缩量约1254亿元；个股方面2341股上涨、 2658股下跌，下跌个股略占多数；题材方面部分板块涨幅居前。 今日，A股十大人气热股如下：永辉超市、万科A、海马汽车、龙洲股份、航天发展、天通股份、中科曙光、海 南发展、东百集团、特发信息。 | 热度排名 | 人气个股 | 热度值 | 所属概念 | 热度标签 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | l | 永辉超市 | 9.75 | 预制菜, 冷链物流 | 3天3板 | | 2 | 万 科A | 9 | 租售同权, 物业管理 | 首板涨停 | | 3 | 海马汽车 | 8 | 海南自贸区,自由贸易港 | 首板涨停 | | 4 | 龙州股份 | 7.75 | 海峡两岸, 网 约车 | 6大6极 | | 5 | 航天发展 | 7.5 | 福建自贸区, 军工信息化 | 持续上榜 | | 6 | 天通股份 | 7.25 | PCB概念, 锂电池概念 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economy shows resilience, with the IMF predicting growth rates of 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, up 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [2][16] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%, and will start a monthly short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion from December 12 [3][14] - The Asian Development Bank raised the regional economic growth forecast for 2025 to 5.1% and slightly increased the 2026 forecast to 4.6% [17] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, social financing scale increment was 816.1 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but up from 1412 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month; PPI fell 2.2% year - on - year, down from a 2.1% decline in the previous month [1][2] Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's November CPI was in line with expectations, and the increase was mainly driven by the change of food prices from decline to rise. PPI was slightly lower than expected, with a 0.1% month - on - month increase [2] - The Fed cut interest rates and will start a short - term Treasury purchase plan. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the margin and price limit for silver futures contracts [2][3] - The container shipping index (European route) futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange mostly rose, with the February contract leading the gain [3] Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose due to the Fed's interest rate cut. Indonesia may impose export tariffs on gold. Copper production at some Chilean mines changed in October [5] - As of December 10, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF decreased. The inventory of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed significantly on December 9 [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - Argentina approved a copper mining project, and the copper production of Escondida Mine in Chile increased in October [8] Energy and Chemicals - The seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker by the US increased short - term supply risks, and the Fed's interest rate cut pushed up oil prices, but global oversupply limited the increase [9] - EIA adjusted its forecast for US crude oil production in 2025 and 2026. US natural gas inventory decreased last week [9] - Saudi companies will develop oil and gas fields in Syria, and an Iraqi oil field resumed production [10] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will launch a consumption promotion activity for agricultural products. US soybean crushing volume in October and Malaysia's palm oil situation were reported [11][12] Financial News Compilation Open Market - On December 10, the central bank conducted 189.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan [13] Key News - The Fed cut interest rates, started a short - term Treasury purchase plan, and the dot - plot predicted further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [14][15] - China's November CPI rose and PPI fell. The IMF and ADB raised their economic growth forecasts for China and Asia respectively [16][17] - The Ministry of Finance will renew 750 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds and issued 7 billion yuan of RMB Treasury bonds in Hong Kong [17][18] - Some banks' business operations and market - related events such as the launch of green foreign debt business in Shenzhen and the release of a new CDS index were reported [19][20] Bond Market Review - China's bond market continued to be warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and Treasury bond futures rising. Money market rates mostly declined [23][24][25] - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields fell [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [29] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB's recent appreciation is due to internal economic fundamentals and external factors, which will have an impact on exports and imports [30] - Huatai Securities believes that the global central bank's policy stance may diverge in the next two weeks, and the global manufacturing cycle is expected to recover [30] Today's Reminder - On December 11, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, have payments made, and have principal and interest repaid [31][32] Stock Market Key News - A - shares recovered after hitting the bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose. Real estate stocks rose in the afternoon [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose, with property stocks performing strongly. Southbound funds had a net outflow [33]

12月10日建材ETF（159745）涨幅居前。 | 建材ETF(159745.SZ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 闭市 12-10 15:00:06 | | | | | | 0.646 0.656 | 昨日 | 流通常 | | 12.74亿 | | 0.646 +0.010 +1.55% | 开盘 | 流通值 | | 8.4亿 | | 最高 0.657 57.8 万 | 成交量 | 换手率 | | 4.54% | | 最低 0.644 3763万 | 成交题 | 均价 | | 0.651 | | IOPV 0.6551 0.14% | 澄折率 | 贴水率 | | 1.36% | | 净值走势 国泰中证全指建筑材料ETF(159745.OF) 0.6472 -1.78% | | | | | | से स्थ 間K 五日 | 日K | 目K | 电子 | (0) | | 鹽加:IOPV | | 均价:0.657 | 盘口 | 成交 | | 0.657 | | WIT TAL | | 卖5 0.6601.40万 | | | | | 524 | 0.659 ...

一，今日要点 今天一早，A股看上去岌岌可危，又是暴雷，又是重组失败，加上政策不及预期，可以说是三座大山压身，结果午后上演了大奇迹日，那么午后的消息是否 属实，还是说我们再一次被人利用了呢？ 二，炉边漫谈 今天市场同时被三件大事刷屏：美联储降息悬念揭晓、万科股债异动涨停、千亿级芯片合并告吹。表面看是政策、房企、科技三个完全不同的剧本，但拨开 迷雾会发现——所有剧情不过是大资金意图的延伸或障眼法。 先看美联储的「刀尖跳舞」 今晚美联储降息25个基点几乎无悬念（概率87.6%），但华尔街早就不关心「降不降」，而是紧盯鲍威尔会不会说一个关键词——「处于良好位置」。若他 说了，暗示1月可能暂停降息；若不说，明年继续降息的大门就敞开着。 更有意思的是，美联储内部已分裂成两派：一半怕降息引发股市泡沫，另一半怕不降息导致经济衰退。这种分歧让资金有了博弈空间——不管鲍威尔怎么 说，市场都会找到解读角度：若偏鹰，资金会流向防御板块；若偏鸽，成长股又可能狂欢。说到底，利率政策只是道具，真正导演市场的是资金对政策的 「预期差交易」。 再看万科的「秃鹫变白鸽」 万科A午后突然直线涨停，境内债集体暴涨超30%，直接诱因是「22万科MTN ...

（来源：价值研学社） 周三，大盘指数继续震荡调整，尾盘被房地产拉了回来：量能较昨日萎缩1254亿，沪深两市共成交1.78 万亿；个股涨跌家数基本持平 。 短线情绪退朝明显，市场热点快速轮动，轮动行情，冲高回落为主，涨停炸板率高达33%，大幅回撤个 股高达9只，亏钱效应明显。 热点方面，今天涨停个股数量最多的板块分别是：大消费，海南自贸，房地产，AI硬件。 接下来，如果缩量行情，无论情绪还是趋势都只能看抱团。 今天凌晨3点，美联储宣布降息25个基点，符合市场预期的"鹰派降息"判断。不过此次会议罕见出现三 张 "反对票"，暴露出美联储的内部分歧。美联储点阵图显示，2026年利率预测中值还是3.375%，这意 味着市场此前预期的"2026年将有更多次降息"的可能性被大大降低。 鲍师傅的讲话温和偏鸽，表示美联储将逐次会议做出决定，货币政策并不存在预定的路径。国债购买规 模或将在未来数月维持高位。 来源：市场资讯 受鲍师傅"鸽派"发言刺激，美股三大指数集体收涨。其中，道指涨1.05%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数 涨0.67%。美国大型科技股多数上涨，中概股多数上涨，黄金白银整体走高，这对大A开盘算是一个小 小的利 ...

1、 今日凌晨，美联储货币政策委员会（ FOMC ）会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10 月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。 会议投票为9票赞成、3票反对，部分委员主张维持利率不变或更大降幅。会议声明指出经济温和 扩张，就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动性充足，自12月12日起启动每月约400亿 美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储点阵图预测显示在2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。 2、 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径，将逐次会议依据数据决策。 通胀仍偏高，但非关税驱动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无 新关税，商品通胀预计2026年第一季度见顶。利率已处于中性区间上端，政策正从限制性向中性过渡。为缓解市场压力，短期国债购买规模将在未来数月 维持高位，预计2026年4月15日前完成。经济前景稳健，政府停摆结束支撑2026年增长预期。 美国总统特朗普重申对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评。特朗普表 示，降息幅度太小，本可以更大一些；美联储降息幅度本可以加 ...

Key Points - SpaceX plans to go public in mid-2026 with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion, aiming to raise over $30 billion, which would be the largest IPO in history. The funds will be used for developing space data centers and purchasing necessary chips, driven by the growth of Starlink satellite internet services and advancements in Starship rocket development [2] - Oracle's Q2 adjusted revenue was $16.06 billion, slightly below analyst expectations of $16.21 billion, with cloud revenue at $8 billion, also missing the forecast of $8.04 billion [2] - Amazon intends to invest over $35 billion in India by 2030 for business expansion, AI-driven digitalization, export growth, and job creation, aiming for a cumulative e-commerce export of $80 billion from India [2] - Meta is shifting focus to closed-source models, with a new model named Avocado expected to launch in spring 2026, as Zuckerberg becomes more involved in daily R&D to drive the company's strategy towards directly monetizable AI models [2] - CATL plans to issue bonds not exceeding 10 billion RMB, with proceeds aimed at supplementing working capital, repaying debts, and supporting capacity expansion and technology R&D to meet the growing demand in the new energy battery market [2] Greater China Company News - Lens Technology intends to acquire 100% of Peimei Gao International to enhance its core competitiveness in AI computing hardware solutions, expanding its business in smart terminals and new energy [4] - Wuliangye will implement a 10 billion RMB interim dividend next week, reflecting the strong profitability and return capabilities of leading companies in the liquor industry [4] - Century Huatong announced that its subsidiary holds a 7.3121% stake in Guosheng Capital, which owns 19.58869 million shares of Moer Thread, potentially impacting the company's net profit by 640 million RMB in Q4 2025 [4] - JD Industrial's Hong Kong public offering was oversubscribed by 60.5 times, with a final issue price set at HKD 14.10 per share, raising approximately HKD 2.827 billion [4] Americas Company News - Microsoft announced a $17.5 billion investment in India over the next four years for AI and cloud infrastructure, and established an AI safety foundation with partners like Anthropic and OpenAI [7] - NVIDIA received U.S. government approval to sell H200 AI chips to China, subject to security reviews and a 25% sales share [7] - Amazon reached an agreement with Italian tax authorities to pay €723 million in taxes, criticizing the unpredictable regulatory environment in Italy [7] - Brookfield and a Qatari AI company formed a $20 billion AI joint venture to develop AI infrastructure in Qatar and selected international markets [8] Asia-Pacific Company News - Samsung SDI signed a $1.36 billion order for energy storage systems, planning to manufacture lithium iron phosphate batteries in the U.S. to expand its North American market [10] - SK Hynix plans to list on the U.S. stock market to narrow the gap with Micron and enhance its valuation, driven by surging demand for AI storage chips [10] Europe and Oceania Company News - BMW Group's supervisory board appointed Milan Nedeljkovic as the new chairman, effective May 2026, to lead the production of new generation models [13] - Stellantis Group partnered with Bolt to accelerate the deployment of autonomous driving services in Europe, with plans to start testing vehicles in 2026 [13] - Lingbao Gold intends to acquire a 50%+1 share stake in an Australian gold mining company for AUD 370 million, focusing on gold mining and exploration [13]