近期消费系列重要政策解读专题电话会议 20251221 摘要 扩大内需是应对挑战的关键，措施包括提高中等收入群体就业、社保和 收入，以及完善职业技能教育体系。供给端则注重质量与效率，创新消 费业态与模式，服务消费成为新增长点。 消费行业负贝塔效应减弱，CPI 数据转正，餐饮和社会零售数据改善。 政策预期商品消费向服务消费倾斜，市场期待业绩估值双重弹性，2026 年或是业绩兑现窗口期。 海南自贸港封关遵循一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由原则。免税商品种 类大幅增加，离岛免税新政包括即购即提、新增国产品类及扩展适用人 群，利好中免公司。 中免公司销售数据持续改善，12 月封关首日销售额同比增长超 90%， 得益于旅游宣传和消费券发放。尽管毛利率较低，但连续增长的数据对 业绩有积极作用，值得关注。 家电板块受益于刺激消费政策，包括延续国补和以旧换新，并可能扩大 规模。政策推动绿色智能家电转型，提升能效标准，优化产业环境，利 好美的集团、海尔智家等企业。 Q&A 康养经济与服务消费成为经济新增长点，企业通过 IP 打造附加值，跨行 业融合。泰迪威尼授权业务表现出色，今年实收已达 10 亿元，预计明 年继续保持增长。 生猪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dehumidifier market in China is experiencing significant growth due to increasing awareness of indoor environmental quality, technological advancements, and expanding applications in various sectors such as biomedicine, data centers, and new energy battery production [1][6]. Industry Definition and Classification - Dehumidifiers, also known as moisture removers, consist of components such as compressors, heat exchangers, air duct systems, water tanks, controllers, and casings [2][4]. - They can be categorized based on usage scenarios (household, commercial, industrial), dehumidification methods (refrigeration, wheel, solution), and functionalities (standard, cooling, temperature control, multifunctional) [3][4]. Market Demand and Supply - In 2024, China's dehumidifier production is projected to reach 12.95 million units, with a demand of 1.83 million units and a market size of 2.566 billion yuan; by 2025, production is expected to be 12.09 million units, demand 1.75 million units, and market size 2.407 billion yuan [6][8]. - The household dehumidifier segment dominates the market, accounting for approximately 63.91% in 2024, with commercial and industrial dehumidifiers making up 18.36% and 17.73%, respectively [8]. Industry Development Environment - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to encourage the development of the dehumidifier industry, including measures to promote green and intelligent home appliance consumption [4][5]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the dehumidifier industry includes key raw materials and components such as compressors, fans, heat exchangers, water tanks, and controllers, while the midstream involves manufacturing, and the downstream applications span households, commercial, and industrial sectors [10][11]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic dehumidifier market features a mix of major home appliance companies (e.g., Midea, Gree, Haier) and specialized brands (e.g., Deye, Oujing) [14][15]. - The market is characterized by a "domestic-led + imported high-end coexistence" structure, with domestic brands focusing on mid-to-high-end markets and imported brands targeting high-end segments [14][15]. Key Companies - Deye Technology Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the dehumidifier market, focusing on innovation and high-end industrial dehumidifiers, with a projected total cost of 635 million yuan for its products in 2024 [12][17]. - Oulun Electric Co., Ltd. has established a comprehensive product system covering household, commercial, and industrial dehumidifiers, with dehumidifier revenue accounting for approximately 55.15% of its total revenue in 2024 [19]. Industry Trends - The dehumidifier industry is moving towards smart, energy-efficient, and environmentally friendly solutions, with a focus on enhancing user experience and expanding market demand [20][21]. - There is a trend towards customized products for specific scenarios and the integration of multiple functions, such as dehumidification combined with air purification and temperature control [21][22]. - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with leading companies leveraging technology and scale to maintain competitive advantages, while niche players may find opportunities in specialized markets [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing pressure in both domestic and international sales, with iRobot announcing bankruptcy restructuring, which will be acquired by Chinese manufacturer Shanjun Robotics [2][5] - In November, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment reached 100 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.4%, while the cumulative annual sales reached 1,074.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [5] - The production and sales data for home air conditioners in November showed a production of 10.577 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7%, and sales of 10.492 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8% [5] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Key drivers for investment include overseas expansion and smart home technology, recommending leading companies in the robotic vacuum sector: Roborock (21.1X 2025 PE) and Ecovacs (21.5X) [5] - Companies with stable performance and upward potential include Ninebot (20.6X), Anfu Technology (41.7X), Hailong Cold Chain (14.6X), and Beiding Co. (30.4X) [5] - For companies with robust operations and high dividends, recommendations include TCL Electronics (12.2X), Hisense Visual (12.9X), Midea Group (13.5X), and Haier Smart Home (12.2X) [5] - Companies diversifying into new sectors include Rongtai Health (18.7X) and Wanlong Magnetic Plastic (18.9X) [5] Market Performance - The retail sales growth rate further narrowed in November, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 43,898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [5] - The domestic market faces pressure from the decline in national subsidies and high base effects, while the export market is constrained by high base effects and inventory reduction in some overseas markets [5] Company Developments - iRobot has announced its bankruptcy and will be acquired by Shanjun Robotics, with the restructuring process expected to be completed by February 2026 [5] - The founder of Chasing Technology, Yu Hao, plans to acquire 54.90% of Jiamei Packaging, with a total transaction value of approximately 2.282 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for companies focusing on overseas markets, particularly in the Americas and emerging markets, despite challenges in domestic sales [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "going abroad" as a key strategy for growth, with expectations for better investment returns from overseas-focused companies in 2026, especially as domestic demand faces pressures from policy and market conditions [4][5]. - It identifies three main factors suppressing domestic sales of durable goods: the depletion of government subsidies, high base effects, and weak housing transaction demand [5][6]. - The report suggests that companies with strong operational performance and low valuations, as well as those benefiting from policy or technological catalysts, are potential investment opportunities [5][6]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The report notes that the home appliance and light industry sectors have underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, primarily due to weakening domestic demand and external tariff disruptions [9][11]. - It highlights that the home appliance sector has faced challenges from declining government subsidies and ongoing tariff issues, leading to a significant drop in export performance [9][10]. 2026 Outlook - The report anticipates that domestic housing demand will continue to decline, with new housing starts and sales expected to drop by 4.8% in 2026 [36][39]. - It predicts that the overseas sales performance of home appliance and furniture companies may improve in the second quarter of 2026, driven by base effects and potential recovery in the U.S. housing market [78][80]. - The report emphasizes that companies with significant exposure to the U.S. and emerging markets are likely to benefit from improving demand conditions [80][81]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends furniture companies with a presence in the U.S., Latin America, and Europe, such as Kuka Home, which are expected to benefit from a recovery in U.S. housing transactions [7]. - It also suggests consumer electronics and home appliance companies with operations in Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia, including Anker Innovations and Haier Smart Home, ranked by their exposure to these markets [7]. - Lastly, it highlights export-oriented companies in Europe, such as Ecovacs and Roborock, noting that while growth potential is strong, profitability may be pressured by increased competition [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the home appliance industry, indicating a potential for stable growth among leading brands due to their integrated advantages and strong pricing power [5]. Core Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 showed a total value of 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, reflecting a slowdown compared to October's 2.9% growth [11]. - The home appliance retail sales in November 2025 were approximately 100 billion yuan, down 19.4% year-on-year, marking a further decline from October's 14.6% drop [14]. - The air conditioning production for January 2026 is expected to rebound due to the holiday scheduling impact, with domestic production planned at 8.84 million units, up 32.0% year-on-year, while exports are projected at 11.13 million units, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The overall retail sales growth has been declining month by month since June 2025, with November showing a significant drop in home appliance sales due to high base effects from previous government subsidies and a decrease in subsidy intensity [11][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28%, while the home appliance index increased by 0.16% during the week [21]. - Raw material prices showed a mixed trend, with copper prices up 2.04% and aluminum prices down 0.29% [3]. - The exchange rate for USD to RMB was reported at 7.06, with a slight decrease of 0.01% for the week [33]. 3. Real Estate Data - In October 2025, new residential construction area decreased by 19.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing adjustments in real estate investment and sales, which may suppress long-term demand for home appliances [40]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Leading brands are expected to achieve stable growth in domestic sales, while external sales may benefit from the US entering a rate-cutting cycle and a gradual recovery in European consumption [5][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6] Core Insights - The acquisition of iRobot is beneficial for leading domestic brands, while the white goods domestic sales are under pressure due to high base effects [3][4] - Major home appliance categories have seen a decline in domestic sales due to the high base from last year's national subsidies and previous consumption pull-forward [3][11] - In November, the sales revenue for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by -34.5%, -34.4%, and -19.2% year-on-year, respectively [3][11] - The sales volume for these categories also dropped significantly, with air conditioners and refrigerators down by -30.65% and -30.79% year-on-year [3][11] - The acquisition of iRobot, which has filed for bankruptcy, may allow brands like Roborock and Ecovacs to capture more market share in North America [4][18] Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - Domestic sales of major home appliance categories are declining due to high base effects from last year's national subsidies [3][11] - November data shows significant year-on-year declines in sales revenue and volume across key categories [3][11] Brand Performance - In November, the market shares for Gree, Midea, and Haier in domestic sales were 32.1%, 29.6%, and 19.7%, respectively, with Haier showing significant growth [4][16] - Midea's export share increased to 40.4%, while Gree's share slightly decreased [4][16] Market Trends - The overall home appliance sector saw a slight increase of +0.2% this week, with white goods and small appliances showing mixed performance [5][19] - The report highlights the impact of raw material prices, with LME copper and aluminum showing fluctuations [5][19] Industry News - The report discusses the implications of iRobot's bankruptcy and acquisition on the competitive landscape in North America [4][18] - It also notes the ongoing trends in ESG ratings among leading home appliance companies, emphasizing their focus on green transformation [39]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 940.49 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 1,048.92 billion [2] - The top traded stocks on the Shanghai Stock Connect included Zhaoyi Innovation with 23.86 billion, followed by Sanfang Qianhe and Luoyang Copper with 16.87 billion and 15.55 billion respectively [3] - On the Shenzhen Stock Connect, the leading stock was Zhongji Xuchuang with 26.44 billion, followed by Sunshine Power and New Yisheng with 26.09 billion and 25.89 billion respectively [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Sectors such as Hainan, dairy, and retail showed significant gains, while precious metals and semiconductors experienced declines [4] - The mechanical equipment sector led in net inflow of funds with 38.67 billion, followed by non-ferrous metals and transportation equipment with 35.32 billion and 31.28 billion respectively [5] - The electronic sector had the highest net outflow of funds at -57.70 billion, followed by semiconductors and pharmaceuticals with -30.20 billion and -17.73 billion respectively [6] Group 3: Individual Stock Activity - The top stocks with net inflow included Xue Ren Group with 13.84 billion, followed by N Youxun and Shanzi Gaoke with 13.69 billion and 10.55 billion respectively [7] - The stocks with the highest net outflow were Meinian Health at -9.05 billion, followed by Shenwei Electronics and C Muxi-U with -6.98 billion and -6.81 billion respectively [8] Group 4: ETF Trading - The top ETFs by trading amount included A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan with 133.655 billion, and Hong Kong Securities ETF with 104.353 billion, showing increases of 7.50% and 18.61% respectively [9] - The ETFs with the highest growth in trading amount compared to the previous trading day included Hengsheng Dividend Low Volatility ETF with 183.92% increase and Industrial Nonferrous ETF with 140.82% increase [10] Group 5: Futures Market - In the futures market, all four major index contracts (IH, IF, IC, IM) saw both long and short positions increase, with IF and IM contracts showing a higher number of short position increases [11] Group 6: Institutional and Retail Activity - Institutional activity showed a decrease compared to the previous day, with notable purchases in Aerospace Intelligence and Shanzi Gaoke, while significant sales were observed in Meinian Health and Xue Ren Group [12][13] - Retail investors were active, with significant buying in Xue Ren Group and Shanzi Gaoke, while selling was noted in Huaren Health and other stocks [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Positive" for investment, marking it as the first recommendation for 2026 [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that leading companies with strong product capabilities, channel efficiency, cost control, and brand premium are positioned to gain market share during a challenging domestic demand environment. The industry is shifting from "incremental competition" to "stock integration" [4]. - It highlights that while short-term revenue growth may be difficult to expect, leading companies are likely to maintain profit growth due to improved efficiency and cost reduction. A stabilization in demand could lead to a new golden era for these companies [4]. - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: companies benefiting from domestic market consolidation, those redefining products for overseas markets, and quality dividend stocks with low valuations [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance and Fundamentals - The home appliance sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.7%, lagging behind the index by 7.8 percentage points, primarily due to external tariffs and domestic policy fluctuations [9]. - The report notes that the home appliance sector's valuation remains low compared to other consumer sectors, with a PE ratio of 14.7X as of November 30, 2025, reflecting the industry's mature phase and pressures from declining domestic real estate demand [19][20]. 2. Main Line One: Opportunities in Market Consolidation - The report identifies opportunities in the smart projection market, where domestic consolidation is occurring, and leading companies are gaining market share. The market is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [61]. - In the kitchen appliance sector, leading companies are showing resilience in performance despite weak demand, with market shares increasing as smaller competitors exit the market [76]. 3. Main Line Two: Redefining Products for Export Markets - The report discusses the growth potential in the robotic vacuum cleaner market, which is expected to see double-digit growth in the overseas market from 2024 to 2029, driven by product innovation [86]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in the lawn mower robot market, particularly in Europe, where the penetration rate is expected to rise significantly [104]. 4. Main Line Three: Quality Dividend Stocks - The report suggests that companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home are positioned well due to their stable cash flows and increasing dividend payouts, making them attractive for long-term investment [85].

Core Viewpoint - Midea Group has announced the establishment of a "New Energy Division" as part of its organizational restructuring, indicating a strategic upgrade in its new energy business layout [1]. Group 1: Organizational Changes - The New Energy Division will integrate the original New Energy Product Company and Energy Technology Company under the Industrial Technology Division, with Wang Jianguo, the Executive President of Midea Group, appointed as the President of the New Energy Division [1]. - This restructuring reflects Midea Group's long-term commitment to the new energy sector, particularly in photovoltaic and energy storage fields [1]. Group 2: Business Development - Midea Group has been actively involved in the new energy industry, acquiring Beijing Hekang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. for 740 million yuan in March 2020, focusing on components for new energy vehicles, including charging piles and grid operations [1]. - In May 2022, Midea Group announced plans to acquire a 29.96% stake in the listed energy storage company Kelu Electronics for 837 million yuan, successfully completing the share transfer in June 2023, thus becoming the controlling shareholder [1]. - The company aims to develop Kelu Electronics into a key platform for energy management business [1]. Group 3: Industrial Technology Division - Midea Group's Industrial Technology Division focuses on new energy, HVAC, new energy vehicles, and core components for robotics, with brands such as GMCC, Welling, MR, HICONICS, CLOU, and Servotronix under its umbrella [2]. - The division operates 29 smart factories globally and has established 33 R&D testing centers in countries including China, Japan, Turkey, and the United States, covering products like compressors, motors, chips, valves/pumps, new energy vehicle components, and energy storage [2]. Group 4: Energy Operations - Midea Energy, a subsidiary of Midea Group, serves as an operational platform for the development, application, and trading of various renewable energy sources, including photovoltaic and wind energy [2]. - The company is involved in household solar storage, commercial energy solutions, and is constructing a virtual power plant operation platform [2]. - Midea's Building Technology Company, previously focused on HVAC, has expanded into solar storage and energy management services for users in recent years [2].

Market Overview - The white goods sector experienced a slight decline of 0.05% on December 19, with Midea Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890.45, up 0.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13140.22, up 0.66% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the white goods sector included: - Xueqi Electric (14.31, +2.51%, 41,600 shares, 59.01 million CNY) - TCL Smart Home (10.84, +2.07%, 124,500 shares, 133 million CNY) - Changhong Meiling (6.60, +1.54%, 78,400 shares, 51.44 million CNY) [1] - Midea Group's stock closed at 79.45, down 0.48%, with a trading volume of 278,000 shares and a transaction value of 2.205 billion CNY [1] Capital Flow - The white goods sector saw a net outflow of 78.22 million CNY from institutional investors and 78.94 million CNY from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 157 million CNY [1] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Gree Electric: -24.78 million CNY from institutional investors, -21.92 million CNY from retail investors, and -2.87 million CNY from individual investors [2] - TCL Smart Home: +15.61 million CNY from institutional investors, -12.50 million CNY from retail investors, and -3.10 million CNY from individual investors [2] - Midea Group: -69.72 million CNY from institutional investors, -53.02 million CNY from retail investors, and +123 million CNY from individual investors [2]