Industry Dynamics - The first batch of China's consumer brand list was released, including well-known liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, which is expected to invigorate the liquor industry and enhance its overall influence [2] - In the national light industry recognition event, 15 liquor companies including Moutai and Yanghe were named advanced collectives, and 17 individuals received labor model awards [3] - In March, the retail sales of tobacco and liquor reached 51.5 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, while the total for the first three months was 187.9 billion yuan, up 6.3% [6] - A new standard for liquor transportation vehicles was approved, aimed at improving logistics efficiency and safety in the liquor industry [6] - A meeting in Guizhou focused on promoting high-quality development in the liquor industry, emphasizing quality safety, risk prevention, and intellectual property protection [8] Company Dynamics - Kweichow Moutai is recruiting operators for its products on platforms like Meituan, Ele.me, and Douyin, aiming to connect with younger consumers and enhance brand competitiveness [8] - Moutai, Wuliangye, and Gujing Gongjiu showcased their brands at the Osaka World Expo, with Moutai hosting a themed event in the China Pavilion [9] - Jinhui Liquor reported a revenue of 1.108 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [9] - The Fenyang liquor industry achieved a total revenue of 37.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [9]

十年相思情，寻香四月天。4月11日-13日，由泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院主办的中欧国际工商学院飞鸿班毕业10周年活动走进泸州老窖。中欧国际工商学 院教授、复旦大学教授、国际问题研究院前常务副院长、上海美国学会前副会长沈丁立以及来自中欧国际工商学院2013年深圳1班的30余位师生嘉宾一行 走进泸州老窖，探秘浓香圣地，再话同窗情谊，共同探寻浓香鼻祖泸州老窖的企业发展之道。 中欧国际工商学院飞鸿班嘉宾一行先后走进1573国宝窖池群、泸州老窖博物馆、泸州老窖三大天然藏酒洞之纯阳洞、乾坤酒堡，全方位沉浸式体验泸州老 窖"浓香鼻祖""浓香正宗"的文化魅力和白酒行业"活态双国宝"——泸州老窖酒传统酿制技艺和1573国宝窖池群的历史底蕴。 在1573国宝窖池群，嘉宾们近距离感受老窖池历经数百年的岁月沉淀，现场品味新酿出的浓香佳酿。泸州老窖博物馆内的丰富展品与详实史料，生动讲述 了泸州老窖从历史走来、迈向现代创新发展的故事，让嘉宾对泸州老窖的品牌内涵有了更深刻的认知。纯阳洞与乾坤酒堡中，弥漫在空气中的醇厚酒香及 亲手参与调制专属佳酿，更让嘉宾们沉浸式感受到泸州老窖洞藏陈酿与定制文化的独特魅力。 泸州老窖作为在明清36家酿酒作 ...

Group 1: Company Actions - Kweichow Moutai plans to complete the remaining share repurchase of approximately 4.05 billion yuan and is drafting a new repurchase plan [1] - Wuliangye's major shareholder intends to increase their stake in the company by 500 million to 1 billion yuan over the next six months [1] - Luzhou Laojiao announced that its controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake by 150 million to 300 million yuan within six months through a special loan and self-owned funds [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The actions of share repurchase and stake increases are expected to instill confidence among retail investors in the secondary market, potentially reducing selling pressure and stabilizing stock prices [1] Group 3: Valuation Perspective - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is currently below 20 times [1] - Historical data shows that Kweichow Moutai's stock price performance is not always positively correlated with its earnings growth, indicating that stock prices are more influenced by valuation [4] Group 4: Macro Environment - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by weak demand, high inventory levels, and declining prices, which contrasts with the previous trade war period where monetary and fiscal policies were more supportive [2] - Despite the high valuation safety, the unfavorable macroeconomic fundamentals create a contradictory situation for the sector [3] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The liquor sector index has underperformed compared to the food and beverage sector index, suggesting potential for a rebound in the liquor sector amidst market rotation [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the white wine sector as it is expected to clear and stabilize, with gradual improvements in the mass market [1]. Core Insights - The white wine sector is currently in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for marginal improvement in the second half of the year. The industry has seen risks transition from off-balance sheet channels to on-balance sheet for most listed companies, leading to a slight slowdown in payment and delivery progress in Q1. However, leading companies have largely completed their initial targets for the year [4][9]. - In the mass market, beer shows signs of marginal improvement, with standout performance in the snack category, particularly for konjac products. The dairy sector is expected to rebound in Q2 after a period of adjustment [19][25]. Summary by Sections White Wine Sector - The white wine sector is in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year. Q1 saw a slowdown in payment and delivery, but leading companies have met their initial targets [4][9]. - High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see revenue and profit growth of approximately 9% and 10%, and 4% and 3% respectively in Q1 [10][12]. - The mid-range segment is experiencing varied performance, with brands like Fenjiu and Gujing showing growth, while others like Yanghe are facing challenges [10][12]. Mass Market - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading brands like Qingdao and Yanjing achieving revenue growth of 4% and 6% respectively in Q1 [26][29]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, is performing well, with brands like Salted and Wei Long seeing significant growth [19][25]. - The dairy sector is expected to improve as inventory levels stabilize, with companies like Yili and Mengniu showing resilience [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests bottom-fishing in the white wine sector, with a focus on brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, while also recommending attention to the mass market for potential turning points in beer and dairy [5][19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][34] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, highlighting that leading companies are reinforcing market confidence through share buybacks and strategic investments [6][7] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show resilience against external risks, with a focus on consumer recovery and investment opportunities in the snack and dining chains [6][9] Summary by Sections Alcohol Industry - The report indicates that the high-end liquor segment remains strong, with recommendations for companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [6][7] - The report notes that the overall liquor index has shown a slight decline of -0.40%, with specific stocks like Shede Liquor and Shanxi Fenjiu performing positively [6][8] Food Industry - The food index has increased by +0.80%, with top performers including Pinwo Food and Yike Food [6][9] - The report suggests that consumer staples are less affected by external risks, and there is potential for growth in the snack and dining sectors as consumer confidence improves [6][9] Key Company Insights - Kweichow Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue of 170.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [7] - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, reinforcing shareholder confidence [7] - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to see growth driven by its strong brand foundation and strategic market expansion [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 11.4% in Q3 2024, indicating robust growth potential [8] Food Company Performance - Anjiu Foods reported a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.84% [9] - Dongpeng Beverage achieved a revenue of 125.58 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 45.34% [9] - Haitian Flavoring's revenue from soy sauce reached 137.58 billion yuan, with a growth of 8.87% [9] - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 128.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.47% [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][34]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a strong focus on domestic demand, highlighting the resilience of leading companies in the food and beverage sector amidst external uncertainties such as fluctuating tariffs [6][7]. - The report identifies three main investment lines: high-end liquor with robust demand, national expansion of mid-to-high-end liquor, and real estate liquor products positioned for price expansion [6][7]. - The food index showed a positive trend with a cumulative increase of 0.80%, indicating strong performance in the consumer goods sector despite external risks [6][12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index experienced a slight decline of 0.40%, with notable performers including Shede Liquor (+1.51%) and Shanxi Fenjiu (+1.30%) [6]. - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as mid-range brands like Shanxi Fenjiu [6][7]. - Kweichow Moutai aims for a revenue of 170.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 15.9% year-on-year growth [7]. Food Industry - The food sector is characterized by a strong recovery in consumer demand, with a focus on snack foods and the restaurant industry [6][9]. - The report suggests that the snack food sector continues to benefit from channel and product innovations, with companies like Three Squirrels recommended for investment [6][9]. - The restaurant industry is expected to stabilize and show slight recovery, with related sectors such as beer and condiments also recommended for attention [6][9]. Key Company Insights - Kweichow Moutai's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 170.6 billion yuan, with a focus on high-quality development [7]. - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, reinforcing market confidence [7]. - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 128.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.47% [9][10]. Market Trends - The overall food and beverage industry saw a cumulative increase of 0.20% this week, with top gainers including Beiyinmei (+41.43%) and Pinwo Food (+35.23%) [12][15]. - The report notes that the macroeconomic environment remains a concern, but the food and beverage sector is expected to show resilience due to diversified import sources and ongoing consumer recovery policies [6][9].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the focus on domestic demand due to tariff events, with food and beverage companies primarily targeting the domestic market, leading to better stock performance. It outlines four main investment themes centered on domestic circulation, highlighting short-term catalysts for stock prices, medium to long-term growth prospects, and high dividend yield assets [3][4][19] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the food and beverage sector is 18005.21, with a 52-week high of 20128.95 and a low of 14118.56 [1] Investment Highlights - Short-term catalysts include the gradual digestion of pressure from snack quarterly reports and the arrival of buying opportunities, with beer entering its peak season and cost improvements continuing. Companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Chengde Lulux are highlighted for their strong performance and attractive valuations [3] - Medium to long-term prospects are positive for companies like Angel Yeast, which is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand and cost improvements, and dairy companies like Yili and New Dairy, which are anticipated to recover profitability due to improved milk prices and demand from birth subsidy policies [3] - High dividend yield assets include brands like Master Kong (5.73%), Uni-President (5.56%), and Chengde Lulux (4.92%) [3] Weekly Performance Review - The food and beverage sector performed well, with the industry index showing a weekly increase of +0.20%, ranking 4th among 30 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.07%. The current dynamic PE ratio is 22.15, which is considered low historically [7][32] Company-Specific Forecasts - Guizhou Moutai is expected to see a revenue growth of 7% and a net profit growth of 8% in Q1 2025, with a focus on maintaining price stability [20] - Yili's revenue is projected to remain flat with a significant drop in net profit due to previous asset transfers, while New Dairy is expected to see a profit increase of 18-20% [22][30] - Dongpeng Beverage is forecasted to achieve a revenue growth of 30% and a net profit growth of 36% in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for its products [23][30] Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards rational growth in the liquor sector, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining competitive valuations and dividend yields, indicating resilience and risk management capabilities [19][30]

Group 1 - The report highlights that in 2024, the total demand in the food and beverage industry is under pressure, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in social retail consumption, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to previous years [3][12] - The report anticipates that the food and beverage sector will see steady progress in 2025, supported by three main factors: increased consumer subsidies, potential valuation recovery, and accelerated industry innovation [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from a combination of internal and external factors, leading to a more resilient market outlook [3][36] Group 2 - The report identifies that the performance of the food and beverage sector has been mixed, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending remains volatile [12][30] - It notes that the liquor segment may see a strategic shift, with a focus on demand cultivation as the key to future growth [4][31] - The report suggests that the condiment sector could benefit from the recovery of the restaurant industry and the acceleration of chain operations, leading to increased market concentration [4][31] Group 3 - The report indicates that the dairy sector is poised for growth driven by strong domestic demand and a focus on product upgrades, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements and demand expansion [4][31] - It highlights that the snack food market remains fragmented, with supply chain advantages becoming more pronounced, and emphasizes the importance of revenue growth following scale expansion [4][31] - The beer segment is noted for its stable production but faces pressure on sales volume and pricing, with a focus on innovation and structural upgrades [4][31] Group 4 - The report discusses the overall market performance, indicating that the food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 8% in 2024, ranking it among the lowest in the industry [23][30] - It mentions that the food and beverage sector's revenue growth has been primarily driven by supply-side optimization, with demand remaining weak [30][31] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, with soft drinks and snacks showing double-digit growth, while liquor and processed foods faced declines [30][31]

4月10日，由中国酒业协会主办、江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司承办，以"强基 重构 立新"为主题的第十四 届中国白酒T9峰会在南京召开。茅台、五粮液、洋河、汾酒、泸州老窖、古井贡酒、习酒、郎酒、剑 南春等头部白酒企业齐聚，共同探讨全球经济变局下中国白酒产业的结构性变化及产业发展未来趋势与 挑战，共同推动"行业共创、生态共建、价值共赢"发展，携手开启中国白酒新征程。 峰会期间，T9企业领导围绕峰会主题，分享对产业趋势的研判与实践经验。泸州老窖集团(股份)公司党 委书记、董事长刘淼以《新周期 新机遇 新路径 "五大主义"引领中国白酒高质量发展》为题发表主题演 讲。 刘淼指出，当下要以"五大主义"引领中国白酒高质量发展。一是要保持"乐观主义"，坚定发展信心。当 前白酒产业进入新一轮调整转型期，既要看到内外部环境变化带来的不确定性和风险挑战，更要坚定看 到中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜力大，依旧保持着长期向好的态势。一是党和政府坚持发展经 济、深化改革的决心没有变；二是中国经济发展坚实基础没有变；三是中国拥有超大规模市场没有变。 二是要坚持"长期主义"，穿越发展周期。中国白酒经历了数千年的技术发展与文化积淀，未来依旧具 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.93% to 3216.41 points, with the liquor sector closing at 2107.87 points, up 1.42% [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao experienced slight declines, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1537.84 CNY per share, down 0.21% [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities predicts that as the overall scale of index funds continues to expand, the liquor sector will receive support for capital allocation due to its status as a weighty sector [2] - The allocation of active funds to the liquor sector is on a downward trend, with the market value proportion expected to drop to 4.11% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the historical peak of 10.12% at the end of 2020 [2] - The current PE-TTM for the liquor sector is at 20 times, which is close to the average historical level minus one standard deviation since 2010, indicating a relatively low valuation [2] - Compared to leading overseas liquor companies, Chinese liquor firms exhibit better growth potential, suggesting a valuation premium for domestic companies [2]