Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands, with the average price of the top ten products reaching a new low since December 12, indicating ongoing market pressure [1][6]. Price Trends - The overall retail price of the top ten liquor products on January 6 is reported at 9068 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan from the previous day, marking a downward trend in price levels [1][6]. - The market shows a notable divergence with five products increasing in price and five decreasing, reflecting varying pressures on core products [7]. Price Increases - Key products that saw price increases include: - Qinghua Lang, which rose by 17 yuan per bottle, continuing its strong performance [7]. - Xijiu Junpin, which increased by 12 yuan per bottle, showing significant rebound strength [7]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ with a rise of 6 yuan per bottle [7]. - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun up by 4 yuan per bottle [7]. - Guojiao 1573, which increased by 2 yuan per bottle [7]. Price Decreases - Major products experiencing price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, which saw a dramatic drop of 35 yuan per bottle, significantly impacting the overall market price [7]. - Boutique Moutai down by 9 yuan per bottle [7]. - Qinghua Fen 20 decreased by 6 yuan per bottle [7]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation down by 3 yuan per bottle [7]. - Gujing Gong Gu 20 with a slight decrease of 1 yuan per bottle [7]. Data Collection Methodology - The daily data for the liquor price reference is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [2][7]. iMoutai App Update - Starting January 6, iMoutai allows users to purchase two types of Moutai products via its app, with options for selecting production dates, enhancing consumer access to the products [2][7].

Industry Environment - The liquor industry is undergoing a channel transformation, with traditional inventory strategies failing and instant retail emerging as a new opportunity. Leading companies like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are exploring online channels and new models such as "live streaming + instant fulfillment" [3] - The scattered liquor market is expected to grow from 80 billion yuan in 2024 to over 100 billion yuan in 2025, driven by companies like Gujing Gongjiu and Kuozi Jiao, which are targeting young consumers with experiential and diverse product offerings [5] - The competition in the liquor industry is shifting towards "value deepening," with companies focusing on product reconstruction and cultural resonance to meet the demands of younger and female consumers [6] Market Trends - The trend of low-alcohol liquor is gaining traction, with major brands like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu launching new products to cater to younger consumers' preferences for lower alcohol content. The low-alcohol market is projected to reach 57 billion yuan by 2025 [7] - The white liquor market is experiencing a shift from "face consumption" to "substance consumption," with a focus on quality and experience rather than just brand prestige [9][14] - The scattered liquor market is becoming a new growth area, with brands leveraging community consumption and flexible pricing strategies to attract consumers [20][21] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Companies are increasingly focusing on enhancing bottle opening rates to address high inventory levels and declining consumption. Some brands have reported significant increases in opening rates through targeted marketing strategies [15] - The concept of "user co-creation" is emerging as a key strategy for brands to engage consumers and enhance brand loyalty, with companies like Wuliangye and Fenjiu exploring new ways to connect with their audience [16][17] - The wedding market is seeing a resurgence, with a 30% increase in wedding events in certain regions, although overall liquor consumption at these events is declining due to economic pressures [19] Brand Dynamics - Moutai is facing challenges with declining prices and inventory buildup, prompting the company to optimize its product structure and marketing strategies to attract younger consumers [12][14] - The introduction of new products and collaborations, such as the partnership between Water Well and actor Tony Leung, is aimed at enhancing brand image and connecting with consumers on an emotional level [26][34] - The rise of health-oriented products, particularly in the health liquor segment, is attracting younger female consumers, with brands like Jinjiu successfully tapping into this demographic [36] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on digital transformation and the integration of AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency and consumer engagement [37] - The scattered liquor market is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable and accessible options [20][21] - The industry is likely to see a continued emphasis on quality and value, as brands adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions [22][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for liquor is showing weak recovery, with a year-on-year decline of over 20% during the New Year period, although there is a slight month-on-month improvement from November and December [4]. - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices are under pressure, with a decline of over 10% for high-end products and 5-10% for mid-range products, while the mass consumption segment remains resilient [4]. - The report anticipates a narrowing of the decline in demand for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of a double-digit decline but less severe than during the New Year [4]. - The report emphasizes that the pricing for high-end liquor will remain under pressure, with expectations of continued marginal declines in prices [4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 288.22 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 288.18 billion yuan [1]. - The report provides a comparative performance analysis, indicating absolute performance declines of -6.0% over one month, -1.4% over six months, and -9.9% over twelve months [2]. Company Feedback and Strategies - Moutai is focusing on market-oriented transformation and has introduced a digital platform to stimulate consumer demand [5]. - Wuliangye is emphasizing sales growth and market order maintenance, with a strategy to enhance market share in the 800 yuan price range [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to increase subsidies and rebates to ensure consumer affordability while maintaining its brand position [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on key markets and maintaining growth momentum for its premium products [5]. - Yanghe is adjusting its sales strategies based on terminal orders and distributor inventory, with a focus on maintaining reasonable inventory levels [5]. - Jinsiyuan is experiencing growth in its mass price segment, which is expected to continue contributing to overall growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that pessimistic factors have been priced in, and as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to recover, particularly for Moutai and Gujing [4]. - The report recommends focusing on Moutai for its high certainty and dividend yield, while also highlighting Gujing as a key player in the mass price segment [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in the liquor sector, particularly led by Kweichow Moutai, which saw a 2.87% increase in the sector on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.38% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.24% [1] Group 2 - Kweichow Moutai (stock code: 600519) closed at 1426.00 CNY, up 3.54%, with a trading volume of 70,900 shares and a transaction value of 10.018 billion CNY [1] - Other notable stocks in the liquor sector included Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a 3.08% increase, closing at 176.99 CNY, and Wuliangye (000858) which rose by 1.85% to 107.90 CNY [1] - The liquor sector experienced a net inflow of 1.441 billion CNY from main funds, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 1.07 billion CNY [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggong Liquor's stock price has shown a slight increase of 2.07% recently, but has experienced a decline over the past few weeks, indicating potential volatility in the market [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 5, Gujinggong Liquor's stock price reached 135.35 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 71.546 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a decrease of 5.86% over the last five trading days, 12.38% over the last 20 days, and 13.18% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Gujinggong Liquor reported a revenue of 16.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.960 billion yuan, down 16.57% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of December 19, the number of shareholders for Gujinggong Liquor increased to 48,900, reflecting a growth of 3.44% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 12.612 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.136 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder is the China Securities White Wine Index A, holding 15.9827 million shares, an increase of 2.3527 million shares from the previous period [3]. - The fourth-largest shareholder, E Fund Consumption Industry Stock, reduced its holdings by 191,900 shares, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited increased its holdings by 485,300 shares [3].

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent slight rebound in the retail prices of China's top ten liquor products, indicating a stabilization after a period of decline [1][5]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten liquor products reached 9081 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a potential market recovery [1][5]. - The market exhibited a trend of more price increases than decreases, with notable price rises for several products, including: - Qinghua Lang increased by 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [6]. - Guojiao 1573 rose by 4 yuan per bottle, marking its fifth consecutive day of price increases [6]. - Qinghua Fen 20 and Wuliangye Pu 58th generation both saw increases of 2 yuan per bottle [6]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ experienced a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [6]. - Conversely, some products saw price declines, with: - The price of the premium Moutai dropping by 8 yuan per bottle [6]. - Xijiu Junpin decreased by 5 yuan per bottle [6]. - Feitian Moutai fell by 3 yuan per bottle [6]. Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of market prices [2][6]. Industry News - On January 4, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. issued a warning regarding fraudulent recruitment information circulating online, falsely using the Moutai name and claiming direct sales at 1169 yuan, which the company has not authorized [2][6].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese liquor market, particularly the top ten baijiu products, has shown signs of price stabilization after a period of decline, with a slight rebound in retail prices observed on January 5 [1][5]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten baijiu products reached 9081 yuan, reflecting a minor increase of 3 yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a potential stabilization after hitting new lows [1][5]. - The market is experiencing a recovery pattern with more products increasing in price than decreasing. Notably, Qinghua Lang saw a significant increase of 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [6]. - Other products that increased in price include Guojiao 1573 (+4 yuan), Qinghua Fen 20 (+2 yuan), and Wuliangye Pu 58th generation (+2 yuan). Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a slight increase of 1 yuan [6][8]. - Conversely, the prices of some products have decreased, with the premium Moutai dropping by 8 yuan, Xijiu Junpin down by 5 yuan, and Feitian Moutai down by 3 yuan [6][8]. Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. This aims to provide an objective and traceable representation of the market prices for well-known baijiu [2][6]. Industry News - On January 4, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. issued a warning regarding false recruitment information circulating online, claiming to offer Moutai at 1169 yuan. The company clarified that it has not authorized any such offers and is cooperating with authorities to address the issue [2][6].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese liquor market, particularly the top ten baijiu products, has shown signs of price stabilization after a period of decline, with a slight rebound in retail prices observed on January 5 [1][5]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten baijiu products reached 9081 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from the previous day, indicating a potential stabilization after hitting new lows [1][5]. - The market is experiencing a recovery pattern with more products increasing in price than decreasing. Notably, Qinghua Lang saw a significant increase of 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [6]. - Other products that increased in price include Guojiao 1573 (+4 yuan), Qinghua Fen 20 (+2 yuan), and Wuliangye Pu 58th generation (+2 yuan). Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a minor increase of 1 yuan [6][8]. - Conversely, products that decreased in price include the premium Moutai, which fell by 8 yuan, Xijiu Junpin by 5 yuan, and Flying Moutai by 3 yuan [6][9]. Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The aim is to provide objective and traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu [2][6]. Industry News - On January 4, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. issued a warning regarding false recruitment information circulating online, claiming to offer Moutai at 1169 yuan. The company clarified that it has not authorized any such offers and is cooperating with authorities to address the issue [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese white liquor market has shown signs of stabilization with a slight rebound in retail prices after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products ended a continuous decline on January 5, with a total price of 9081 yuan for a bundled sale, reflecting a 3 yuan increase from the previous day [1]. - The market is experiencing a recovery pattern with more products increasing in price than decreasing, suggesting a structural rebound [1]. Notable Price Changes - Qinghua Lang saw a strong performance with a price increase of 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [1]. - Guojiao 1573 has increased by 4 yuan per bottle, marking its fifth consecutive day of price increases [1]. - Other products with price increases include Qinghua Fen 20 and Wuliangye Pu 58, both up by 2 yuan per bottle, and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ with a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Conversely, the price of the premium Moutai has decreased significantly, with the boutique version down by 8 yuan, and the Flying Moutai down by 3 yuan per bottle [1][3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for major liquor companies to focus on supply-demand matching and price-volume balance, especially in light of the weak demand and inventory reduction strategies being adopted by distributors [8][15][16] - The overall investment recommendation for the liquor sector remains "Buy," with a focus on companies that are expected to achieve a dual bottom in valuation and performance [8][9] Group 1: Industry Overview - The 2026 liquor distributor conference highlighted that major liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are setting more pragmatic growth targets for 2026, with a general trend of lower revenue growth expectations compared to previous years [8][15] - The report notes that the liquor industry is increasingly emphasizing the importance of core products within various price segments, with clearer distinctions between product price bands [16][19] - Companies are prioritizing the interests of distributors, focusing on price order reinforcement and inventory management, while also exploring new sales models such as consignment and instant retail [16][19] Group 2: Company-Specific Strategies - Kweichow Moutai is focusing on market-oriented reforms to ensure consumers can access its products fairly and quickly, while also maintaining a stable supply of its flagship products [19][20] - Wuliangye aims to achieve high-quality sales through a focus on core products and enhancing brand value, with a strategy that includes performance evaluations and a mechanism for eliminating underperforming distributors [22][23] - Shanxi Fenjiu is pursuing a dual strategy of national expansion and targeting younger consumers, while also enhancing its brand collaboration across its product lines [24][25] Group 3: Market Performance and Valuation - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.6% in the week of December 29 to January 2, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points [31][34] - As of January 2, the food and beverage sector's PE-TTM valuation stands at 21.1X, while the liquor sector's PE-TTM is at 18.3X, indicating a relative valuation of 1.49 and 1.29 times compared to the CSI 300 [47][52] - The report tracks the pricing of key liquor products, noting a decrease in the price of Moutai and an increase in the price of Wuliangye, reflecting market dynamics [53]