Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline on September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.18% to 3846.33 points, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector closed at 2244.21 points, down 0.19%, with the stock of JiuGuiJiu leading the decline at 1.87% [1] - Major liquor companies saw the following closing prices and percentage changes: - Kweichow Moutai: 1434.79 CNY, down 0.29% - Wuliangye: 120.29 CNY, down 1.01% - Shanxi Fenjiu: 189.82 CNY, down 1.34% - Luzhou Laojiao: 127.04 CNY, down 1.87% - Yanghe Brewery: 67.94 CNY, down 0.60% [1] Research Insights - Huachuang Food and Beverage's report indicates that the liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical bottoming process in three phases: supply clearance, supply-demand rebalancing, and demand improvement [1] - The upcoming third-quarter reports may signal the first turning point in supply and demand, with expectations of "accelerated pressure relief in reports and marginal demand improvement," marking a potential first layout opportunity for the sector [1] - The focus for the next year will be on continuously sensing forward-looking signals and gradually confirming a positive cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of instant retail in China's liquor market is expected to maintain double-digit growth in the coming years, driven by the competitive landscape of food delivery services by 2025 [1][3] Group 1: Instant Retail Growth - China's retail industry has evolved through traditional retail, e-commerce, and new retail, with instant retail significantly shortening delivery times and enhancing consumer choices [1][2] - The liquor instant retail market has seen a surge since its inception on platforms like 1919 and Jiuxiaoer, with four main channel models emerging: vertical, platform-based, warehouse-store integrated, and front warehouse models [1][2] Group 2: Drivers of Instant Retail - The rise of instant retail in liquor is attributed to changing consumer habits, with a growing demand for convenience and quick fulfillment of spontaneous needs [2] - Cost efficiency is achieved by reducing distribution layers and operational costs, coupled with subsidies from some platforms, leading to significant price advantages [2] - Supply-side drivers include channel partners seeking to capture new growth and brand owners willing to collaborate with channels for new product launches and promotions [2] Group 3: Impact on the Liquor Industry - Instant retail presents both opportunities and challenges for the liquor industry, offering efficient fulfillment and better reach to younger consumers, while potentially impacting brand image and pricing structures [3] - Historical trends indicate that changes in the liquor cycle often coincide with channel transformations, and the current deep adjustment in the industry necessitates adaptation to instant retail [3] - The instant retail market for liquor in China is projected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate approaching the mid-double digits, benefiting core categories like baijiu and beer [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The liquor retail channel is undergoing structural growth, with instant retail emerging as a highlight; recommended stocks include leading national brands and regional players with strong channel development capabilities [4] - Specific recommendations for baijiu include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jiansiyuan, and Guqingongjiu, while short-term elastic stocks include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [4] - For beer, which is the second-largest category in liquor, recommended stocks include Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and China Resources Beer, reflecting high participation in instant retail [4]

Core Insights - The demand for high-end liquor has been declining, leading to a significant drop in sales for many liquor retailers, particularly during the second quarter of the year [1][2] - Despite a recent uptick in inquiries and orders, the overall sales volume and prices of high-end liquor remain lower than in previous years, with many retailers reporting a double-digit decline in orders for the upcoming holidays [1][9] - Marketing strategies among liquor brands are diversifying, with a focus on mid-range products and promotional activities to stimulate sales during the holiday season [4][7] Group 1: Market Trends - Retailers have observed a noticeable increase in inquiries and orders for high-end liquor in the last two weeks, particularly for brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, primarily for gifting and gatherings [2][3] - The overall sales of high-end and mid-range liquor are still below last year's levels, with many retailers relying on lower-priced products to maintain revenue [1][5] - The price of Moutai has seen slight fluctuations, with retail prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan, but overall, prices have not significantly rebounded from earlier declines [5][6] Group 2: Brand Strategies - Major liquor brands are intensifying their marketing efforts for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with companies like Wuliangye and Moutai launching various promotional campaigns [4][7] - There is a notable price stabilization for certain high-end products, such as Guojiao 1573, which has maintained a consistent wholesale price, contrasting with the fluctuating prices of other brands [7][8] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 experiencing different pricing strategies, reflecting their unique market positioning and sales focus [7][8] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The majority of recent purchases are for gatherings or banquets, with many consumers opting for smaller quantities rather than bulk purchases, indicating a cautious approach to spending [5][9] - Retailers report that customers are increasingly price-sensitive, with many opting for promotions and discounts available through online platforms [6][10] - The overall sentiment among retailers is one of caution, with expectations that this year's holiday sales will not match the previous year's performance [9]

Core Insights - The demand for high-end liquor has been declining, leading to a significant drop in sales for many liquor retailers, particularly in the context of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1][3][6] - Recent weeks have shown a slight recovery in liquor sales, but overall prices for high-end and mid-range liquors remain lower than in previous years, with some retailers reporting a double-digit decline in orders compared to last year [1][3][6][14] Sales Trends - Liquor sales have seen a noticeable increase in the last two weeks, particularly for well-known brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, driven by gift-giving and social gatherings [1][3][4] - Despite the uptick in sales, the prices of high-end liquors have not significantly rebounded, with many products still priced lower than during the same period last year [1][3][6][14] Marketing Strategies - Liquor companies are focusing more on marketing for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with various promotional activities being launched both online and offline [6][7] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Moutai are collaborating with media events to enhance visibility and drive sales during the festive season [6][7] Pricing Dynamics - The pricing strategies among different brands have diverged, with some brands maintaining stable prices while others are offering discounts to stimulate sales [10][12] - The price gap between major brands has narrowed, particularly between Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, indicating a shift in market dynamics [10][12] Inventory Management - Retailers are cautious about stocking high-end liquors due to fluctuating prices and uncertain demand, often limiting their inventory to a few cases [9][14] - The trend of purchasing smaller quantities has become prevalent, with customers opting to buy only what they need for immediate consumption rather than stocking up [9][14] Market Outlook - Despite recent improvements in sales, the overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with expectations that this year's festive sales will not match last year's performance [14] - Increased competition from online platforms and promotional activities is further complicating the market landscape for traditional liquor retailers [14]

Core Insights - The liquor market is experiencing a seasonal recovery, particularly in the lead-up to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but overall sales remain below last year's levels [1][12] - High-end liquor prices are generally lower than in previous years, with significant price sensitivity among consumers [2][9] - There is a noticeable shift in consumer purchasing behavior, with customers buying smaller quantities and focusing on well-known brands for gifting and gatherings [1][7] Market Trends - Business demand for high-end liquor has declined, leading companies to emphasize marketing for festive gatherings and family reunions [2][5] - Sales of premium brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have seen some recovery, but overall sales volume and prices are still lower than in previous years [3][4][10] - The price of Moutai has fluctuated between 1900 to 2000 yuan per bottle, with minimal significant increases observed recently [7][10] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly cautious, purchasing only a few bottles at a time rather than bulk buying as in previous years [1][12] - The majority of recent purchases are for gatherings, with many stores reporting that leftover liquor can be returned [7][12] - There is a growing trend of promotional activities from online platforms, which adds competitive pressure on traditional liquor retailers [12] Brand Strategies - Different brands are adopting varied strategies in response to market conditions, with some focusing on maintaining stable prices while others prioritize sales volume [9][11] - The price gap between major brands is widening, with Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining their market positions while other brands struggle to keep up [10][11] - Promotions and collaborations with events like the CCTV Mid-Autumn Festival Gala are being utilized by brands to boost visibility and sales [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for high-end liquor has declined significantly, leading to a cautious market environment where brands are adjusting their strategies to cope with lower sales and price sensitivity [4][10][14]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent months have seen a noticeable decline in the demand for high-end liquor, with many retailers relying on lower-priced options to maintain sales [4][10]. - As the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, there has been a slight recovery in liquor sales, but overall sales remain below last year's levels, with some retailers reporting a double-digit percentage drop in orders [6][12][14]. - The prices of high-end liquor are generally lower than in previous years, with many brands experiencing only slight price increases recently [5][10][14]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The majority of recent liquor purchases are for gatherings or banquets, with customers typically buying only a few bottles at a time rather than bulk orders [10][12]. - Retailers have noted that customers are increasingly price-sensitive, leading to a cautious approach in inventory management, with many stores limiting their stock of high-end liquor [12][14]. Group 3: Brand Strategies - Major liquor brands are focusing on marketing strategies for the upcoming holidays, with companies like Moutai and Wuliangye launching promotional campaigns [8][9]. - There is a noticeable divergence in pricing strategies among brands, with some maintaining stable prices while others are more aggressive in discounting to stimulate sales [11][14]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with online platforms frequently offering promotions that challenge traditional retail sales [15].

Core Insights - The Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has seen its GDP grow from less than 6.3 trillion yuan in 2019 to 8.7 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a significant increase in its contribution to the national economy from 6.3% to 6.5% [1][2] Company Insights - Wuliangye tops the brand value rankings in the Chengdu-Chongqing region with a brand value of 305.96 billion yuan, followed by Luzhou Laojiao at 107.67 billion yuan, and Changan Automobile at 84.56 billion yuan [2][3] - The top ten companies in the Chengdu-Chongqing region have shown a significant increase in brand value, with the beverage industry leading the way [6][8] Industry Insights - The beverage industry has seen a brand value increase of 117.02 billion yuan over the past four years, while the automotive industry has surpassed 100 billion yuan in brand value, reaching 123.15 billion yuan in 2025 [6][8] - The equipment industry has doubled its number of listed companies over the past four years, indicating a shift towards high-tech upgrades and successful industry transfers from the eastern regions [12]

Core Insights - The Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has seen its GDP grow from less than 6.3 trillion yuan in 2019 to 8.7 trillion yuan in 2024, marking an increase in its share of the national economy from 6.3% to 6.5% [1] - The brand value of listed companies in the Chengdu-Chongqing region has significantly increased, with Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao leading the rankings [2][3] Company Insights - Wuliangye (000858.SZ) ranks first with a brand value of 305.96 billion yuan, followed by Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) at 107.67 billion yuan, and Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) at 84.56 billion yuan [2][3] - The beverage industry in the Chengdu-Chongqing region has seen a brand value increase of 117.02 billion yuan over the past four years, making it the highest among all industries [6][8] Industry Insights - The automotive industry in the region has surpassed a brand value of 100 billion yuan, reaching 123.15 billion yuan in 2025 [6][8] - The equipment industry has doubled the number of listed companies over the past four years, indicating a significant growth in this sector [8][10] - The agricultural sector has experienced a decline in brand value, primarily due to the shift of Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) from agriculture to the equipment sector [6][8] Regional Insights - Chengdu has the highest increase in both the total brand value of listed companies and the number of companies listed over the past four years [4][5] - The Chengdu-Chongqing region serves as a strategic support for the Yangtze River Economic Belt and is a key demonstration area for the country's new urbanization efforts [2]

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.58% on September 25, with Yingjia Gongjiu leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed varied performance, with Guizhou Moutai at 1439.00, down 0.21%, and Wuliangye at 121.52, down 0.69% [1] - Yingjia Gongjiu closed at 40.72, down 1.97%, with a trading volume of 65,800 shares and a transaction value of 270 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 1.539 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 897 million [2] - The capital flow data indicates that major stocks like Shuijingfang and Laobaigan experienced significant net outflows from institutional investors [3] Detailed Stock Capital Flow - Shuijingfang had a net outflow of 19.34 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 14.63 million [3] - Laobaigan saw a net outflow of 19.42 million from institutional investors, with a retail net inflow of 15.57 million [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) is experiencing active trading and has seen significant net inflows, indicating strong investor interest in the food and beverage sector amid positive market signals and upcoming consumption events [1][2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of September 25, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) showed a slight decline of 0.55% with a trading volume exceeding 24 million yuan and a premium/discount rate of 0.18% [1]. - The ETF has recorded a net subscription of 18 million units, reflecting strong demand from investors [2]. - The ETF has seen a continuous net inflow of funds for seven consecutive trading days, accumulating over 150 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Composition and Holdings - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which includes stocks from the beverage, packaged food, and meat industries [3]. - Major holdings in the ETF include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Yili Group, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Haitian Flavoring & Food [3]. Group 3: Market and Consumption Trends - Recent reports indicate a positive outlook for the liquor market, with Moutai's management noting a significant recovery in terminal sales as the traditional double festival approaches [4]. - Various promotional activities are being launched to stimulate consumption, including a 10 million yuan tourism consumption voucher initiative in Haikou [3].