长按即可免费加入哦 按曾发生的客观参数选择题：如果能坐时光穿梭机回到2017年9月末，你愿意用23倍市盈率的价 格，买入当年赚61亿利润，后面几年利润增长到100亿的成长通道中的洋河股份？还是更愿意同个 时间买入14PE倍市盈率的价格买赚当年赚511亿利润后面几年利润几乎平滑差不多而且经历负油 价的中石化A ？思考想出你直觉的答案再往下看。 2017年9月末，洋河股份的收盘101.5元，股本15.07亿，市值=101.5X15.07=1530亿元，2017年洋 河的利润66.27亿，101.5元的股价对应市盈率=1530/66.27=23.08倍。 2025年3月20日洋河股份股价收盘77.63元，2007年9月至今洋河股份的每股股息累积22.9元，持有 至今不动的每股净值77.63+22.9=100.53元，即使不计算原始本金的时间成本，23PE买入的洋河股 份持有7.5年依然是亏损-1%。 2017年9月末，中国石化A的收盘5.90元，股本1211亿，市值=1211X5.9=7145亿元，2017年中石化 利润511亿，5.90元的中石化股价对应市盈率=7145/511=14.0倍。2025年3月20日中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating that the overall upward risk outweighs the downward risk, especially with the current low positioning of the sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a "corporate agony period," with signs of a bottom reversal established. The report suggests that while performance may be under pressure in the next two quarters, stock prices are expected to rebound [1][7][27]. - High-end liquor and strong regional brands are anticipated to lead the market recovery, with a particular focus on the evolution of Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu [1][7][42]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Historical Review of the Industry - The previous adjustment period from 2012 to 2015 saw stock prices decline ahead of performance, with a notable drop of 61% in the index from its peak [11][16]. - The report outlines two phases during the last cycle: the "channel agony period" and the "corporate agony period," highlighting how stock prices often lead performance by 2-3 quarters [11][20]. Section 2: Current Cycle Analysis - The current cycle has transitioned from a "channel agony period" starting in 2022 to a "corporate agony period," with inventory levels decreasing and market conditions improving [7][27]. - The report notes that the current adjustment has been less severe than the previous one, with the index experiencing a 45% decline from its peak, compared to a more rapid decline in the earlier cycle [27][30]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong market dynamics and improved strategic capabilities, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to outperform due to their robust distribution networks and mature pricing strategies [1][7][42]. - It also highlights the potential for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye to benefit from the recovery, as they have historically led rebounds in previous cycles [1][42]. Section 4: Market Performance Metrics - The report provides data on the industry scale, noting 143 listed companies with a total market value of 5,313 billion [3]. - It also includes performance metrics, indicating a 6.3% absolute performance over one month and a 37.6% performance over six months [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the liquor industry, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiangsu Yanghe, and others, indicating a positive outlook for long-term investment [4][44]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment phase post-Spring Festival, with no significant improvement in fundamentals observed. The second quarter is critical for verifying these fundamentals [4][5]. - Sales performance is generally flat, with differentiation among brands and consumption scenarios. High-end liquor consumption is decreasing, while mid-range and budget segments maintain some sales [4][5]. - Price stability is noted across various price segments, with key products like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining stable prices of 2200 RMB and 930-940 RMB respectively [4][5]. - Channel inventory levels have not significantly decreased, with some brands actively managing inventory through reduced shipments. Moutai's inventory remains healthy, while other brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu show slight increases compared to last year [4][5]. - Payment collection rates vary, with some brands experiencing slower collection compared to last year. Moutai and Fenjiu are close to last year's collection rates, while others like Wuliangye and Yanghe are lagging [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The liquor industry is entering a seasonal lull post-Spring Festival, with a need for patience in verifying fundamental improvements. Sales are flat, with a recovery in banquet scenarios but no revival in business scenarios [4][5]. - The price system remains stable, with key products maintaining their prices. Moutai's price has slightly increased during the spring season [4][5]. - Inventory levels are stable, with some brands managing stock through reduced shipments. Moutai's inventory is in good condition, while others have seen slight increases [4][5]. Brand-Specific Insights - Moutai: Payment collection at 40%, stable pricing, and healthy inventory levels. Moutai 1935's price has slightly increased [5]. - Wuliangye: Payment collection at 40-50%, with inventory around one month. Price remains stable at 930-940 RMB [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu: Payment collection at 40-50%, with slight price decreases. Inventory levels are higher than last year but manageable [5]. - Jiangsu Yanghe: Payment collection below 40%, with inventory levels around three months. Sales have decreased [5]. - Other brands like Jianzhu and Water Well have varying performance, with some showing stable sales while others face challenges [5][8]. Regional Insights - Different regions show varied performance, with some areas like Henan and Jiangsu maintaining stable growth for brands like Moutai and Guojing. However, overall demand remains weak due to economic conditions [8][12][30].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the liquor industry, consistent with the previous rating [4][8]. Core Viewpoints - The essence of the 2025 liquor strategy is to focus on market share logic, indicating a shift from price concentration to volume concentration, with individual stock excess returns stemming from the ability to gain market share [2][10]. - Short-term stock price movements have largely reflected market pessimism, and with a recovery in policy expectations, the valuation of the liquor sector is expected to continue to recover [6][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests an "Overweight" position, highlighting companies that have demonstrated strong market share logic, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiuziyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu. It also identifies leading companies with potential for market share growth, including Wuliangye, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu, among others [6][8]. Individual Stock Performance - The excess returns of liquor stocks are fundamentally driven by market share logic, with companies achieving sustained share increases in their respective regions and price segments [10][12]. - Specific observations include: - Su liquor brands like Jiuziyuan have shown significant market share increases in regions such as Jiangsu and Anhui [11]. - Anhui liquor brands like Yingjia and Gujing are entering a phase of market share competition, with notable performance in key markets [12]. - Shanxi Fenjiu has demonstrated significant national market share growth, particularly in the Shandong and Henan markets [12]. Market Share Logic - Companies that exhibit strong market share logic typically share common traits, such as having products in the early stages of their lifecycle and benefiting from scale effects [13]. - The differences in market share logic among individual stocks are influenced by channel dynamics and brand strength, with some brands still in the process of channel development [13][14]. Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry is currently transitioning through three phases: total expansion, structural growth, and now a focus on volume concentration following a period of inventory adjustment [14]. - The report emphasizes that leading companies can achieve higher performance certainty through increased concentration, as evidenced by Moutai's successful strategy of trading price for volume [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].

证券代码：002304 证券简称：洋河股份 公告编号：2025-005 根据公司《第一期核心骨干持股计划》和《第一期核心骨干持股计 划管理办法》的相关规定，本持股计划所获标的股票的锁定期为 24 个月， 1 自本持股计划草案经公司股东大会审议通过且公司公告最后一笔标的股 票过户至本持股计划名下之日起计算。公司于 2021 年 9 月 11 日披露了 《关于第一期核心骨干持股计划非交易过户完成的公告》（公告编号： 2021-036），公司于 2021 年 9 月 10 日收到中国证券登记结算有限责任 公司深圳分公司出具的《证券过户登记确认书》。本持股计划的锁定期 于 2023 年 9 月 10 日届满，本持股计划所持有的股份全部解锁，具体详 见《关于第一期核心骨干持股计划锁定期届满暨解锁条件成就的公告》 （公告编号：2023-022）。 公司于 2024 年 8 月 9 日召开第八届董事会第四次会议，审议通过了 《关于公司第一期核心骨干持股计划存续期展期的议案》，同意将本持 股计划存续期展期 12 个月，即存续期展期至 2025 年 9 月 10 日，具体详 见公司《关于第一期核心骨干持股计划存续期展期的公告》 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio in the food and beverage sector has decreased, while the overweight ratio has slightly increased. As of Q4 2024, the total market value of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector is 309.25 billion, down by 41.40 billion from the previous quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 4.56%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [1][12][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a significant decline in heavy holding ratios, while the majority of the consumer goods sector has increased. The heavy holding ratio for the white liquor sector is 3.95%, down by 0.65 percentage points, while other sub-sectors like beverage and dairy have shown increases [1][15][17] Summary by Sections Heavy Holding Ratios - In Q4 2024, the food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio ranks third among 31 primary industries, below the five-year average of 7.27%, indicating potential for growth [1][12] - The heavy holding market value in the food and beverage sector accounts for 11.73% of the total heavy holdings, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points [14] Sub-sector Performance - The white liquor sector's heavy holding ratio has decreased significantly, while the majority of consumer goods sub-sectors have increased. The beverage and dairy sub-sector's heavy holding ratio rose to 0.28%, while non-white liquor and snack food sectors also saw slight increases [15][17][18] - The heavy holding ratio for the food processing sub-sector has continued to decline, now at 1.30%, the lowest among all sub-sectors [18] Individual Stock Analysis - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by white liquor stocks, with seven out of ten positions held by white liquor companies. The overall heavy holding ratio for these top ten stocks is 4.22%, down by 0.44 percentage points [2][28] - The leading companies in heavy holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Kweichow Moutai maintaining the highest heavy holding ratio at 2.05% [28][30] Investment Recommendations - Despite the overall weak recovery in consumption, it is anticipated that policies to boost consumption will be strengthened in 2025, presenting opportunities in the food and beverage sector. Key areas to focus on include: - White liquor: Expecting demand recovery to alleviate inventory pressure, particularly in mid-range and mass-market segments [3] - Beer: Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with a recovery in demand for mid-to-high-end beers [3] - Seasoning products: Continued cost advantages and health-oriented demand are seen as growth drivers [3] - Dairy products: Approaching a cost inflection point, with price wars expected to ease [3]

证券代码：002304 证券简称：洋河股份 公告编号：2025-004 江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司 二、变更后签字注册会计师基本情况 1、基本信息 项目合伙人、签字注册会计师：龚召平，2004 年成为注册会计师， 先后从事过上市公司、IPO 申报、政府投融资平台、央企及大型国企等审 计业务，具备专业胜任能力，无兼职。2010 年开始从事上市公司审计， 2024 年开始在该所执业，近三年签署上市公司审计报告 3 家，挂牌公司 审计报告 2 家，将为公司提供 2024 年度财务报告审计和内部控制审计服 务。 签字注册会计师：王文娟，2019 年成为注册会计师，为上市公司提 供过年报审计、内部控制审计等证券服务，具备专业胜任能力，无兼职。 2014 年开始从事上市公司审计，2024 年开始在该所执业，近三年签署上 市公司审计报告 1 家，将为公司提供 2024 年度财务报告审计和内部控制 审计服务。 2、诚信记录 关于变更签字注册会计师的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"），分别于 2024 年 4 月 2 ...

作者 | RAYYYY 编辑 | 小白 随着公募基金2024年四季报进入密集披露期，顶流基金经理的调仓路径和投资思路也浮出水面。 Choice数据显示，四季报期间，上证指数上涨0.4%，沪深300指数下跌2.1%，创业板指数下跌1.5%， 恒生指数下跌5.1%，恒生中国企业指数下跌2.9%。 在四季度，股市整体呈现抗压态势，多头与空头交锋激烈，振幅较大，以上证指数为例，整体振幅高 达15.6%。 （来源：Choice数据） 因此风云君认为本次四季报中的业绩展示和调仓路径更能展示基金经理们的抗压能力及盈利思路，也 是其综合能力的体现。 接下来将对张坤、傅鹏博、李晓星等顶流基金经理的四季报进行研究。 管理规模继续缩水。 张坤：尝试在新领域中捕获盈利 1月21日，顶流基金经理张坤掌管的易方达蓝筹精选混合（005827.OF）、易方达优质企业三年持有 （009342.OF）、易方达优质精选混合（QDII）（110011.OF）、易方达亚洲精选股票（QDII）（118 001.OF）四只基金披露了2024年四季报。 从基金收益看，张坤掌管的4只基金在2024年四季度没有实现正收益，基金份额净值增长率从-6.6% 到-9 ...

证券代码：002304 证券简称：洋河股份 公告编号：2025-003 江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司 2024年度中期权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）2024 年 度中期权益分派方案，已获 2025 年 1 月 15 日召开的公司 2025 年第一次 临时股东大会审议通过，现将权益分派事宜公告如下： 一、股东大会审议通过权益分派方案情况 1、公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会审议通过的权益分派方案为： 以公司现有总股本 1,506,445,074 股为基数，用未分配利润向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利人民币 23.30 元（含税）。 2、自公司 2024 年度中期权益分派方案披露至实施期间，公司股本 总额未发生变化。 3、本次实施的分配方案与股东大会审议通过的分配方案及其调整原 则一致。如在实施权益分派的股权登记日前公司总股本发生变动，将按 照分配总额不变的原则对分配比例进行调整。 4、本次实施的分配方案距离股东大会审议通过的时间未超过两个月。 三、股权登记日与除权除息日 ...