Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts are expected to provide strong support for pig prices in Q3 2025. The average selling price of pigs on July 4 was 15.37 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg and a 4.84% rise [12][13] - The central economic committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote high-quality development of the marine economy, which is expected to benefit the aquaculture sector [21][36] - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.14 percentage points during the week of June 27 to July 4, with the agricultural index rising by 2.55% compared to a 1.40% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [32][34] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily slaughter volume of pigs was 133,800 heads, a decrease of 7,300 heads from the previous week, indicating a seasonal decline in demand due to rising temperatures [12] - The supply side continues to contract due to previous over-culling and losses from piglets after the Spring Festival, which is expected to support prices [12] Price Trends - The average price of pigs increased to 15.35 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week rise of 0.63 yuan/kg. The price of piglets decreased to 31.33 yuan/kg, down by 0.27 yuan/kg [6][39] - The price of corn increased to 2,511 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices decreased to 2,926 yuan/ton, down by 27 yuan/ton [4][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the improving investment logic in the pig sector [27] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope are recommended due to domestic market benefits and strong overseas demand [27] Market Performance - The aquaculture sector led the market gains, with stocks like Guolian Aquatic Products rising by 12.22%, Shennong Technology by 7.31%, and Dongrui Co. by 6.92% during the week [32][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to combat "involutionary" competition and optimize pig production capacity, as highlighted in the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee [1][17] - The overall pig farming industry is currently profitable, with self-breeding and self-raising models showing increased profits [18][23] - The poultry sector is experiencing price declines, particularly in broiler chickens and chicken seedlings, indicating a potential for price recovery in the future [19][36] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The national average price for lean meat pigs is 14.82 CNY/kg, up 3.9% from last week, while the average wholesale price for pork is 20.58 CNY/kg, up 1.7% [21][22] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased to 90.05 kg, down 0.6% week-on-week [26] - The price of 15 kg piglets has decreased to 36.77 CNY/kg, down 1% from last week [29] Pig Farming - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is 119.72 CNY/head, an increase of 69.48 CNY/head from last week, while the profit for purchased piglets is -26.26 CNY/head, an increase of 105.45 CNY/head [23][24] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of recent policy changes on pig prices and inventory behavior [18] Poultry Farming - The average price for broiler chickens is 6.75 CNY/kg, down 3.7% from last week, and the average price for chicken products is 8.45 CNY/kg, down 1.2% [36] - The price for broiler chicks has dropped to 1.36 CNY/chick, down 20% from last week [31] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth opportunities for industry companies [19] Livestock Support - The report notes increased price volatility in agricultural products, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [19]

Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Overweight" due to expected overall profit improvement in the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of pig farming is expected to improve, with a stable pig price and a significant increase in average profit per head for self-bred pigs [4]. - Poultry farming shows a mixed outlook, with white chicken prices bottoming out and yellow chicken profitability declining, while egg-laying chicks continue to experience high demand [4]. - The pet food sector is projected to maintain high growth, with leading companies showing strong online sales growth, despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs [4]. - Animal health is recovering, with increased demand for vaccines and improved sales of veterinary preparations [4]. - The seed industry faces challenges with declining corn prices and increased competition, leading to pressure on the performance of leading seed companies [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in H1 2025 is expected to be 14.80 CNY/kg, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, while the average profit for self-bred pigs is projected at 69.04 CNY/head, recovering from a loss of 24.82 CNY/head in H1 2024 [4]. Poultry Farming - White chicken prices are under pressure due to oversupply, with the average price for commodity broiler chicks at 2.4 CNY/bird, down 21% year-on-year. Yellow chicken prices are also declining, with the average price for Qingjiao chicken at 8.9 CNY/kg, down 19% year-on-year [4]. Pet Food - The domestic pet food market is experiencing a growth rate of 17% in online GMV for the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% in the same period of 2024. Leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. show growth rates of 51% and 26%, respectively [4]. Animal Health - The demand for veterinary vaccines has increased, with a 15.8% year-on-year rise in vaccine approvals in the first five months of 2025. Prices for veterinary preparations like Tylosin and Tiamulin have increased by 39.8% and 9.3%, respectively [4]. Seed Industry - The corn seed market is under pressure due to falling corn prices and high competition, leading to a decline in seed prices and performance expectations for leading seed companies [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig price is expected to maintain a central level above 15 yuan/kg in 2025 due to limited supply growth and cautious breeding practices [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a supply gap, with a notable increase in piglet losses due to a virus mutation, which is expected to drive up pig prices in Q3 2025 [1] - Recent government policies aim to regulate the pig industry, including measures to curb low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The pig price is under significant downward pressure in H2 2025, but multiple government policies are expected to support price increases and alleviate CPI pressure [2] - The overall investment logic in the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive outlook for investment [2] - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index reflects the performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and breeding, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 65.27% of the index [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][61]. Core Views - The report highlights that the pig price may experience a turning point due to seasonal factors and policy changes, suggesting a bottoming out phase for the sector [2][12]. - The poultry sector is seeing price declines, but there are signs of marginal improvements in the cycle [3][24]. - The animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery, and there are investment opportunities in the pet medical industry [4][35]. - The planting sector is witnessing a week-on-week rebound in grain prices [5][43]. - The feed sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with a general downward trend [6][46]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength [7][51]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry - The average pig price is currently fluctuating between 14-15 CNY/kg, with a notable increase in average weights compared to previous years [11][12]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with low costs and strong financial health, such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [12][61]. Poultry Industry - The poultry prices are declining, with the white feather chicken price at 3.48 CNY/jin, showing a slight decrease [24][25]. - The report recommends companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Livestock, while suggesting to pay attention to He Feng and Minhe Livestock [25][61]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to recover, supported by the profitability of the pig farming industry [35][36]. - The pet medical market is projected to grow, with a market size of approximately 840 billion CNY, representing 28% of the pet industry [4][35]. Planting Sector - Grain prices are showing a week-on-week increase, with corn priced at 2353 CNY/ton and wheat at 2446 CNY/ton [43][44]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in genetically modified seeds, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-tech [43][61]. Feed Sector - Feed prices are experiencing a downward trend, with pig feed at 3.36 CNY/kg [46][47]. - The report recommends Hai Da Group and suggests paying attention to He Feng [47][61]. Pet Industry - The pet market is expected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [51][52]. - The report recommends companies in the pet food sector like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and in the pet medical sector, it recommends Ruipu Biological [55][61].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [6] Core Views - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.15 percentage points during the week of June 23-27, 2025, with the Shenwan Agricultural Index closing at 2,661.46, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.80% [1][16] - The pig farming sector shows a bullish sentiment with pig prices continuing to rebound, reaching an average price of 14.72 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 3.52% [2] - The poultry sector is facing downward pressure, with broiler prices remaining low due to high inventory levels in the downstream slaughtering sector [2] - Grain prices such as wheat and corn have seen slight increases, while soybean meal prices have decreased due to increased supply from oil mills [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector's weekly performance ranked 25th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, with the fishery sector performing the best with a 4.90% increase [1][18] - The animal health, agricultural product processing, planting, and breeding sectors also saw increases of 3.13%, 2.10%, 1.44%, and 0.28% respectively, while the feed sector declined by 0.32% [1][18] 2. Industry Key Data 2.1 Pig Farming - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 50.25 CNY/head, up 30.84 CNY/head week-on-week, while the profit for purchased piglets is -131.71 CNY/head, an increase of 55.08 CNY/head week-on-week [2][24] 2.2 Poultry - The average price of broiler chicks is 1.70 CNY/chick, down 8.60% week-on-week, and the average price of white feather broilers is 7.01 CNY/kg, down 1.54% week-on-week [2][32] 2.3 Agricultural Products - The average price of wheat is 2,446.39 CNY/ton, up 0.19% week-on-week, and corn is 2,352.86 CNY/ton, up 0.43% week-on-week. Soybean meal prices have decreased to a range of 2,900-3,100 CNY/ton [3][35] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the planting industry chain due to increasing geopolitical tensions affecting food security [4] - For pig farming, companies with strong cost control or clear cost reduction paths are recommended, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - In the poultry sector, attention is drawn to integrated industry leaders like Shengnong Development and Lihua Stock for their stable capacity expansion and cost advantages [4] - The feed sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of livestock inventory, with recommendations for industry leaders like Haida Group and Hefeng Stock [4] - For agricultural products, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang are highlighted for their relevance to food security [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures to regulate breeding sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2025-2026, benefiting the poultry sector and leading feed companies [1][38]. - The report highlights the increasing focus on food security amid frequent extreme weather events and trade tensions, suggesting a strategic shift in the agricultural sector [1]. Group 2: Swine Farming - In the first half of 2025, pig prices remained strong, influenced by slow recovery in breeding sow capacity and proactive market behavior before holidays, leading to a stable price range of 14.0-15.0 yuan/kg [12][15]. - The report anticipates limited growth in pig supply for 2025 due to cautious replenishment by producers, with expectations for pig prices to remain favorable in the second half of 2025 [15][31]. - Key companies recommended for investment in the swine sector include Muyuan Foods and WH Group, noted for their cost advantages and strong performance [38]. Group 3: Poultry Farming - The report is optimistic about the white-feathered chicken breeding sector, expecting a tightening supply of parent stock in the second half of 2025, which will positively impact the market [40][58]. - For yellow-feathered chickens, the report indicates that the current low inventory of parent stock, combined with reduced production costs, sets the stage for potential price recovery and profit expansion [52][58]. - Recommended companies in the poultry sector include Lihua Agricultural and Dekang Agriculture, which are expected to benefit from improving market conditions [58]. Group 4: Feed and Veterinary Services - The report notes a recovery in demand for feed products as the breeding sector improves, with a positive outlook for companies like Haida Group, which is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [6][38]. - The veterinary services sector is also expected to see a recovery in demand, with a focus on leading companies in the animal health space [38]. Group 5: Seed Industry - The report highlights the rising importance of food security, with a focus on the seed industry, particularly in rice and corn, as the sector enters a phase of recovery and growth [38]. - The hybrid rice seed industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, while corn prices are rebounding, encouraging farmer planting enthusiasm [38][58]. - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, which are anticipated to benefit from these trends [38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply contraction has reached a point where the average price of live pigs is expected to rise, with the national average price at 14.74 yuan/kg as of June 29, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.45 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 3.17% [4][13] - The profit of pig farming enterprises is expected to maintain high growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by increased output, heavier average weights, and reduced costs [5][23] - The investment logic for the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive allocation strategy [6][30] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In Q2 2025, the average price of live pigs is projected at 14.55 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 11.22%, while the cost of pig farming has decreased to 13.38 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decline of 2.92% [5][23] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.99 kg/head, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, with a projected year-on-year increase of 34.07% in the total output of 12 major listed pig companies [5][23] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index underperformed the broader market by 1.11 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and the agricultural index increasing by 0.80% [34][36] - The aquaculture sector led the gains, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Biological Shares (+9.83%) and Spring Snow Food (+9.82%) [34][38] Price Tracking - As of June 27, 2025, the national average price for live pigs was 14.72 yuan/kg, up 0.50 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price for piglets was 31.6 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan/kg [41][44] - The feed price ratio for pigs was recorded at 4.38:1, indicating the profitability dynamics in the sector [41] Recommendations - The report recommends actively allocating investments in leading pig companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as well as in the feed sector benefiting from strong overseas demand [6][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing capacity regulation policies in the pig industry, recommending a "platform + ecosystem" model represented by Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [3] - The report highlights the need to shift from a cyclical perspective to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [6][17] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the pig farming sector, particularly in leading companies with cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - In May, the national breeding sow inventory reached 40.42 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a stable capacity within the green regulatory range [6][16] - The average pig price rose to 14.66 CNY/kg, with the complete cost for leading enterprises dropping to around 12 CNY/kg, suggesting a favorable profit outlook [5][16] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong financial performance, such as Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs [6][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent chicken seedlings remains high, with the average price at 47.93 CNY, reflecting a 5.25% increase [7][18] - The report notes a persistent contradiction between high production capacity and weak consumption in the white feather chicken industry, leading to potential market share gains for integrated enterprises [7][18] - Key investment targets include leading companies in imported breeding stock and fully integrated enterprises like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [7][18] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a recovery in aquaculture profitability due to rising fish prices and falling feed prices, with expectations for a rebound in demand for aquaculture feed in 2025 [8][19] - The leading companies are expected to improve their market share and cash flow as the capital expansion phase ends [8][19][21] 4. Pet Industry - The report indicates strong performance from domestic pet brands during the Tmall 618 sales event, with brands like Guibao and Zhongchong showing significant growth [11][22] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a focus on brands that demonstrate continuous high growth and strong overseas performance [11][22] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes a significant reduction in grain imports, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in the first five months of 2025, which may support price recovery [12][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply and the need for price increases to enhance farmers' income [12][29] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report states that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3922 points, reflecting a 1.95% increase, while the agriculture index rose by 0.80% [30][31] - The report highlights the overall stability in the pig market, with average prices showing a slight decline due to seasonal consumption effects [52]