Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an overall increase of 16.36% from January to November 2025, surpassing the index by approximately 3.18 percentage points [12][13][14] - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns, with significant increases in animal health (36.27%), fishery (35.22%), agricultural product processing (21.88%), feed (12.48%), breeding (11.53%), and planting (8.49%) [13] - Approximately 83% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with around 5% of stocks increasing by over 100%, and 17% recording negative returns [14][17] Group 2 - The breeding industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in the number of breeding sows, with a current stock of 40.35 million heads, which is 1.1% lower than the previous year [23][24] - The price of live pigs has shown a downward trend in 2025, with an average price of 11.65 yuan/kg as of November 24, down 26% from the beginning of the year, but is expected to gradually recover in 2026 [26] - The profitability of pig farming has turned negative, with self-breeding losses at 135.9 yuan per head and external piglet purchases at 234.63 yuan per head, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 [31] Group 3 - The meat chicken breeding sector faced challenges in profitability during 2025, with the average price of broiler chicks fluctuating and a significant decline in profitability [33][35] - The supply of yellow feathered chickens is expected to remain relatively abundant in 2026, with a high stock of breeding chickens [45][47] - The overall feed production in China is projected to continue its recovery, with a total production of 15.85 million tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [50] Group 4 - The prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have shown fluctuations, with corn prices recovering from a low of 2115.59 yuan/ton to around 2300.88 yuan/ton by late November 2025 [52][53] - The global supply of corn is expected to remain ample, with a projected production of 128.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, indicating limited price recovery potential [55] - The overall market for pet food in China is anticipated to grow, with an increase in exports and a rising domestic market [38][40]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the need to focus on capacity reduction in the pig farming industry due to ongoing losses and low prices [1][2]. Core Insights - The agricultural index fell by 3.4% this week, with significant individual stock movements, including a notable increase in companies like Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%) and Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing losses in pig farming due to low prices, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, which may present left-side investment opportunities [1][2]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, indicating growth potential for leading companies in this space [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week [1]. - Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises have increased, with losses reported at 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [1]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on pig supply through Q4 2025 and into H1 2026, with prices likely to remain low [1]. Pet Food - October data shows a decline in China's pet food exports, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), down 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term challenges due to trade friction, the domestic pet food market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on leading brands [1][2]. Chicken Farming - The report highlights stable prices for white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat, with the average price for chicks at 3.35 yuan each and for chicken meat at 3.50 yuan/kg [1]. - The supply of broilers is expected to remain ample, but improvements in demand due to economic recovery could lead to a rebound in industry profitability [1].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig farming and pet food industries, highlighting potential growth opportunities and ongoing challenges in supply and pricing [2][4][6]. Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 11.60 CNY/kg as of November 20, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.11% [29][30]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased, with a reported month-on-month decline of 0.77% in October, indicating ongoing supply pressures [20][6]. - Profitability remains a concern, with losses reported at -135.90 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -234.63 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 21 [33][38]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.15 CNY/kg as of November 21, up 0.42% week-on-week [39][36]. - The outbreak of avian influenza in overseas markets is creating uncertainty in the supply chain, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry in the long term [36][37]. Animal Health - The animal health industry is expected to rebound as demand for biological products increases, driven by a recovery in livestock profitability and inventory levels [44]. - Recent developments in vaccine research, particularly for African swine fever, are anticipated to stimulate interest in the sector [44]. Seed Industry - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and corn have shown slight increases, with wheat averaging 2505 CNY/ton and corn at 2280 CNY/ton as of November 21 [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing food security and promoting the adoption of biotechnology in the seed industry [47]. Pet Industry - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth in domestic sales, with e-commerce sales up 19% year-on-year in October [55]. - Notable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival indicates a strong market presence for domestic brands, with significant sales increases reported for several companies [56]. - Export figures for pet food show a decline, with October exports at 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year, but the impact of tariff disruptions is expected to be limited [54][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pig prices leading to increased losses in breeding, with a focus on accelerated capacity reduction. The supply pressure for fat pigs remains significant, and the seasonal price increase is not materializing, which may further accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with growth certainty. The core brands of listed companies performed well during the promotional period, and the logic of increasing market share continues to be validated [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig breeding industry, suggesting that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026. The report also notes that the pet economy remains a core growth area, with expectations for continued market share growth among leading companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.4%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.8%. The top five gainers included Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%), Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%), and Guolian Aquatic Products (22.5%) [3][10]. Pig Breeding - The report indicates a decline in breeding enthusiasm due to rising costs and high utilization rates of existing facilities. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 11.61 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week. Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises reached 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [2][3][11]. Pet Food - October data showed a decline in both the export value and volume of pet food from China, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. Despite this, the domestic pet food market is viewed as a high-certainty growth area, with strong sales during the "Double Eleven" event [2][3]. Chicken Breeding - The report notes that the prices of white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat have remained stable, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.35 yuan per chick. The supply of white feather chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with potential demand recovery in 2026 [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

中宠股份今年以来股价涨58.59%，近5个交易日跌2.45%，近20日涨3.13%，近60日跌8.67%。 今年以来中宠股份已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为6月6日，当日龙虎榜净买入-2673.30万 元；买入总计2.51亿元 ，占总成交额比23.81%；卖出总计2.78亿元 ，占总成交额比26.34%。 11月21日，中宠股份盘中下跌2.01%，截至10:23，报56.06元/股，成交5534.05万元，换手率0.32%，总 市值170.63亿元。 分红方面，中宠股份A股上市后累计派现3.22亿元。近三年，累计派现2.64亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出134.05万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出107.16万元，占比 1.94%；大单买入443.76万元，占比8.02%，卖出470.65万元，占比8.50%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，中宠股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股1432.28万股，相比上期减少700.92万股。东方红产业升级混合（000619）位居第九大流通 股东，持股179.29万股，为新进股东。申万菱信新动力混合A（ ...

Core Insights - The Chinese pet industry has experienced unprecedented growth since the 21st century, transitioning from viewing pets as mere tools for guarding to recognizing them as essential emotional companions and family members [1][9] - The pet service sector has diversified significantly, encompassing medical, grooming, boarding, and training services to meet the evolving needs of pet owners [1][9] - The market for pet services in China is projected to grow from 34.034 billion yuan in 2015 to 104.47 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% [1][10] Pet Service Industry Overview - The pet industry includes all activities related to pets, such as breeding, trading, and providing goods and services like pet food, supplies, and services [3] - Pet services are defined as non-physical consumption services for pets and their owners, covering a wide range of offerings from grooming and medical care to training and insurance [3] Market Growth and Trends - The number of urban pets in China is expected to rise from 87.46 million in 2017 to 124.11 million by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.13% [5] - The pet consumption market in China is anticipated to expand from 97.8 billion yuan in 2015 to 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 13.27% [8] - In 2024, pet food is projected to account for 52.8% of the market, while pet services will represent 34.8% [8] Industry Development History - The establishment of the China Small Animal Protection Association in 1992 marked the beginning of the pet industry in China, promoting the concept of pets as companions [5] - Over the past thirty years, the pet service industry has evolved from basic breeding and trading to a comprehensive service model covering the entire lifecycle of pets [5][6] Industry Structure and Key Players - The pet service industry features a diverse competitive landscape, with key players in medical services including New Ruipeng and Ruipai, while grooming and boarding services are dominated by regional brands like Baozaiwu and Paiduo [10] - The market remains fragmented, with opportunities for growth through service extension, technological empowerment, and brand building [10] Future Trends in Pet Services - The industry is expected to embrace intelligent technology, integrating smart wearables and online platforms for enhanced pet health management and service efficiency [12] - Services will increasingly focus on emotional value and personalized experiences, such as customized training and memorial services for pets [13] - The service model will diversify, combining online and offline experiences, with O2O platforms and community-based services enhancing user engagement [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Group 1 - The pet food industry continues to show strong growth, with online sales increasing by 28% to 4.7 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [1] - Domestic brands are experiencing a clear differentiation in rankings, with brands like Guobao, Xianlang, and Jingu leading, while brands like Blue and Honest One are declining [1] - The market share of top brands is accelerating, with the online CR3 and CR5 for pet food at 12.1% and 16.2% respectively, up by 2.2 and 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 2 - Guobao is rapidly growing despite a high base, with its own brand sales reaching nearly 1.1 billion yuan, up 44%, and high-end product series accounting for 47% of total sales during Double Eleven [2] - Zhongchong's mid-to-high-end brand series is successfully incubating, with sales exceeding 100 million yuan during Double Eleven, a year-on-year increase of over 100% [2] Group 3 - The focus of leading domestic brands is on increasing market share, with a potential rise in marketing expenses in the short term, but long-term profit margins are expected to recover as competition stabilizes [3] - The industry is currently in a mid-stage of competition, with brands prioritizing revenue and market share growth, which may lead to an increase in overall marketing expense ratios [3]