德赛西威（002920） 外延内生并驱，走向 AI 时代 2025 年 04 月 29 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 21,908 | 27,618 | 36,938 | 46,173 | 56,469 | | 同比（%） | 46.71 | 26.06 | 33.75 | 25.00 | 22.30 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,547 | 2,005 | 2,756 | 3,670 | 4,710 | | 同比（%） | 30.57 | 29.62 | 37.45 | 33.19 | 28.32 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.79 | 3.61 | 4.97 | 6.61 | 8.49 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 37.83 | 29.19 | 21.24 | 15.94 | 12.42 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs recently engaged with Chinese software supply chain companies to discuss customer software budgets, advancements in generative AI, and growth and profitability prospects for the second half of 2025. It is anticipated that the average revenue growth for Chinese software companies covered by Goldman Sachs will be 26% year-on-year in 2025, with sequential revenue growth expected across all four quarters [1]. Group 1: Generative AI Impact - The emergence of enhanced local foundational models, such as deep search models, has shifted customer software budgets from functional tools to generative AI software, leading to increased average revenue per user and attracting new paying customers [1]. - As demand rises and profitable business models for enterprise (B-end) and consumer (C-end) users become clearer, more software companies are investing in the development of application software based on foundational models [1]. - Generative AI is enabling enterprises to reduce operational costs, such as recruitment tools, with revenue from generative AI for covered Chinese software companies expected to rise from 0%-10% in 2025 to 10%-50% by 2028 [1]. Group 2: Revenue Contributions and Projections - The contribution of generative AI revenue to various companies is projected to increase significantly by 2028, with specific companies like Kingsoft Office and iFlytek expected to see substantial growth in their generative AI revenue contributions [2]. - The revenue growth for different segments, including electronic design automation, marketing, CAD/BIM, and automotive software, is expected to be robust in 2025, with generative AI applications playing a key role [10][29]. Group 3: Software Company Strategies - Companies are shifting their business models to subscription-based services, which provide predictable revenue streams and better operational leverage, particularly in the context of generative AI applications [7]. - Software companies are focusing on providing customized solutions for large clients while also developing standardized solutions for small and medium enterprises [24][25]. - The monetization of generative AI is occurring in both B-end and C-end markets, with existing clients paying more for upgraded versions with AI features and new clients converting from free to paid status more rapidly [26]. Group 4: Growth and Profitability Outlook - Companies like Kingsoft Office and Yonyou are expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with Kingsoft focusing on expanding its AI user base and Yonyou optimizing its product mix to improve gross margins [31]. - The automotive software sector is witnessing increased demand due to the push for intelligent vehicle strategies, benefiting the entire automotive technology supply chain [29]. - Cybersecurity companies are adapting to market demands by integrating multiple point solutions into platform offerings, driven by the increasing need for security solutions in the context of generative AI [30].

01 事件概述 公司发布2025 年一季度报告，2025Q1 营收67.92亿元，同比+20.26%，环比-21.42%；归母净利 5.82 亿元，同比+51.32%，环 比-2.65%；扣非后归母净利 4.97 亿元，同比+34.08%，环比-0.09%。 02 分析判断 ► 收入利润同比增长显著 毛利率同环比提升 收入端： 2025Q1 营收 67.92 亿元，同比 +20.26% ，环比 -21.42% 。 2025Q1 ，公司主要客户中，理想销量同比 +15.50% ，环比 -41.48% ，奇瑞销量同比 +1.98% ，环比 -29.27% ，吉利销量同比 +49.50% ，环比 +1.46% ，驱动公司收入实现同比高速增长； 利润端： 2025Q1 归母净利 5.82 亿元，同比 +51.32% ，环比 -2.65% ；扣非后归母净利 4.97 亿元，同比 +34.08% ，环比 -0.09% 。 2025Q1 毛利率达 20.52% ，同比 +1.61pct ，环比 +2.12pct ；归母净利率达 8.57% ，同比 +1.76pct ，环比 +1.65pct 。利润端归母净 利和扣非后归母净 ...

" 从座舱域控到组合辅助驾驶，德赛西威靠软硬一体化稳步推进智 能化布局。 " 作者丨林子川 编辑丨林觉民 提起中国新能源汽车市场，理想、小鹏、蔚来是绕不过的三大明星车企。2020年前后，三家公司先后推出 理想ONE、小鹏P7、蔚来ES6，凭借智能化定位迅速打开市场，成为造车新势力的代表作。 但鲜有人注意到，这三款成名车型背后，都站着同一个供应商——德赛西威。 2019年，理想ONE是国内首款实现四屏交互的量产车型，其座舱大屏和系统集成来源德赛西威；小鹏P7 是国内首批搭载英伟达Xavier芯片的量产车型，而在当时，只有德赛西威拿到了该芯片的合作授权，几乎 以一己之力推动了高算力域控在中国市场的首次量产落地；蔚来ES6上市当年，带动品牌销量同比增长近 五成，其座舱系统和中控大屏，同样出自德赛西威。 然而，近二十年前，德赛西威的主业务几乎只制造车载音响、仪表盘，与其它供应商没有多大区别。 过去十年的汽车行业变革，德赛西威成功抓住了两轮市场红利：2017年，特斯拉引领的新能源汽车座舱大 屏化，德赛西威提前布局，常年稳居座舱大屏市场份额榜首；2020年后，新能源汽车辅助驾驶功能渗透率 增高，其凭借域控制器、雷达、摄像 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on a closing price of 103.16 CNY per share on April 24, 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported significant year-on-year growth in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 6.792 billion CNY, up 20.26% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 582 million CNY, up 51.32% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its internationalization process, with overseas orders exceeding 5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of over 120% [4]. - The company is focusing on three main business segments: smart cockpit, intelligent driving, and connected services, all of which are experiencing strong growth and technological innovation [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 67.92 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 20.52%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net profit margin reached 8.57%, up 1.76 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2]. Business Segment Performance - The smart cockpit segment generated revenue of 18.23 billion CNY in 2024, growing 15.36% year-on-year, with new orders exceeding 16 billion CNY annually [3]. - The intelligent driving segment achieved revenue of 2.074 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 63.06% [3]. - The connected services segment reported revenue of 7.314 billion CNY in 2024, up 27.99% year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 33.431 billion CNY, 40.081 billion CNY, and 47.846 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.728 billion CNY, 3.162 billion CNY, and 3.790 billion CNY for the same years [5][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.92 CNY, 5.70 CNY, and 6.83 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on a closing price of 103.16 CNY per share on April 24, 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported significant year-on-year growth in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 6.792 billion CNY, up 20.26% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 582 million CNY, up 51.32% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its internationalization process, with overseas orders exceeding 5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of over 120% [4]. - The company is focusing on three main business segments: smart cockpits, intelligent driving, and connected services, all of which are experiencing strong growth and technological innovation [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 67.92 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 20.52%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.61 percentage points [2]. - The net profit margin reached 8.57%, up 1.76 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2]. Business Segment Performance - The smart cockpit segment generated revenue of 18.23 billion CNY in 2024, growing 15.36% year-on-year, with new orders exceeding 16 billion CNY annually [3]. - The intelligent driving segment achieved revenue of 2.074 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 63.06% [3]. - The connected services segment reported revenue of 7.314 billion CNY in 2024, up 27.99% year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 33.431 billion CNY in 2025, 40.081 billion CNY in 2026, and 47.846 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.728 billion CNY, 3.162 billion CNY, and 3.790 billion CNY respectively [5][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 4.92 CNY in 2025 to 6.83 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 21 in 2025 to 15 in 2027 [5][9].

惠州市德赛西威汽车电子股份有限公司 惠州市德赛西威汽车电子股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 4 月 15 日召开 的第四届董事会第八次会议，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方案的议案》，同意 公司使用自有资金及回购专项贷款以集中竞价交易方式回购部分公司已发行的人 民币普通股 A 股股份，回购的股份将用于实施股权激励计划或员工持股计划。本 次回购价格上限为 120 元/股，回购资金金额不低于人民币 3 亿元（含本数）且不 超过人民币 6 亿元（含本数）。回购股份期限自公司董事会审议通过回购股份方案 之日起 3 个月内，具体回购股份的数量以回购结束时实际回购的股份数量为准。 具体内容详见公司于 4 月 17 日在《证券日报》、《证券时报》、《上海证券报》、《中 国证券报》和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露的《关于回购公司股份方 案的公告》（公告编号：2025-032）及于 4 月 18 日披露的《关于回购公司股份报告 书》（公告编号：2025-034）。 截至本公告披露之日，公司本次回购股份方案已实施完成。根据《上市公司 股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购股份 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 150.62 CNY [2][5] Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), projected at 4.43 CNY, 5.43 CNY, and 6.67 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [2] - The company has shown a strong performance in Q1, with a revenue of 6.792 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.3%, and a net profit of 582 million CNY, up 51.3% year-on-year [10] - The gross margin improved to 20.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [10] - The company has a robust order backlog, with new project orders expected to generate an annual sales revenue exceeding 27 billion CNY for 2024, including over 5 billion CNY from overseas projects [10] - The company is expanding its production capacity and intelligent computing center, which will support its R&D in smart cockpit and intelligent driving technologies [10] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is 21.908 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 46.7%, and is expected to reach 49.027 billion CNY by 2027 [4] - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 1.537 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.899 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.8% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.547 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.702 billion CNY in 2027, with a consistent growth rate of around 22.6% [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 19.9% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve slightly from 7.1% in 2023 to 7.6% in 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 150.62 CNY [2][5] Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved year-on-year, and it is accelerating the layout of production capacity and intelligent computing centers [1] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 4.43, 5.43, and 6.67 CNY respectively [2] - The automotive industry's intelligentization is driving the company's core business growth, with substantial new project orders expected [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 21,908 million CNY in 2023 to 49,027 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 19.6% [4] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1,537 million CNY in 2023 to 3,899 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,547 million CNY in 2023 to 3,702 million CNY in 2027, with a consistent growth rate [4] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 19.9% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to improve to 7.6% [4] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has secured new project orders with an annual sales value exceeding 27 billion CNY for 2024, indicating strong demand for its products [10] - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with new facilities planned in Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, and North America [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 138.66 RMB [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 revenue reached 6.792 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.26% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 21.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 582 million RMB, up 51.32% year-over-year and down 2.65% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding expectations due to a significant improvement in gross margin [1][2]. - The company is benefiting from the wave of automotive intelligence and is committed to an overseas expansion strategy, which is expected to unlock growth potential. Revenue and profit are projected to maintain rapid growth from 2025 to 2027 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Q1 revenue was 6.792 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 20.26% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 21.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 582 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 51.32% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 20.52%, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.18 percentage points and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.12 percentage points [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds leading market shares in cockpit domain control and intelligent driving domain control, with respective market shares of 16.1% and 26.7%. It is expected to continue benefiting from the automotive intelligence trend [2][4]. - The overseas order scale is projected to exceed 5 billion RMB in 2024, with new facilities established in Germany, France, and Spain to support its "new business + new market" dual-engine strategy [4]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 34.2 billion RMB, 41.2 billion RMB, and 49.6 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 2.6 billion RMB, 3.2 billion RMB, and 4.0 billion RMB for the same years [5][7]. - The estimated PE ratio for 2025 is set at 29.6 times, reflecting a 10% premium due to the company's leading position in automotive intelligence and accelerated globalization [5].