高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，市场普遍预期美联储将于今年十二月实施降息，但后续政策路径，尤其是二零二六年的前景，则显得迷雾重重。报告认为， 尽管十二月降息二十五个基点的可能性极高，然而明年美国经济可能出现的增长加速与通胀降温，或将促使美联储调整其宽松节奏。 通胀走势是支持这一预测的重要支柱。报告分析指出，美国核心通胀压力已有所缓解，潜在通胀率已降至约百分之二。随着此前加征关税带来的价格传导效 应在明年中期逐渐消退，实际通胀率有望进一步回落。这一判断的前提是贸易政策环境保持相对稳定且金融市场不出现剧烈波动。 与相对乐观的增长和通胀展望形成对比的，是报告对美国劳动力市场更深层的担忧。尽管官方数据表现尚可，但高盛自身构建的指标显示就业增长动力可能 弱于表象。尤其值得关注的是，美国大学毕业生的就业市场出现显著降温，年轻毕业生的失业率从近期低点攀升了约百分之七十。报告提示，这种结构性疲 软可能反映了技术变革带来的效率提升等因素的影响，若持续恶化，可能对消费者支出构成压力，并增加未来货币政策进一步宽松的理由。 综合来看，高盛的报告描绘了一幅短期政策明确、中长期路径充满不确定性的图景。十二月的降息似乎已是共识下的最后一环，而 ...

与市场的乐观情绪相悖，高盛集团试图抑制对铜价破纪录涨势的热情，称铜价突破每吨1.1万美元的涨 势不太可能持续，因为全球供应依然充足。 在本周对客户的报告中，以Aurelia Waltham为首的高盛分析师们认为，近期铜价上涨的核心原因是"对 未来市场供应紧张的预期，而非当前基本面因素"，并补充称他们预计当前价格水平难以持续。 展望未来，高盛表示，预计至少到2029年以前不会出现全球性铜短缺，因为预计今年需求仍将比供应少 约50万吨。 "需求不佳，供应过剩——但价格却在上涨。这是一种特殊动态，"他表示，甚至预测非美国市场可 能"没有阴极铜。" **消除短缺担忧** 然而，高盛的分析师则持有不同的观点。虽然他们承认正在发生的供应短缺，导致明年上半年铜价预测 走高，但美国以外的"极低"库存可以通过提高地区溢价和收紧LME价差来避免。 "虽然2026年16万吨的小幅度过剩使得市场更趋于平衡，但这意味着我们预计全球铜市场不会很快进入 短缺状态，"他们写道，并补充说，价格明年将"局限于"每吨10,000-11,000美元区间。 铜价长期被看涨的预测最终都未能应验。尽管到2025年之前主要矿场的中断收紧了供应，但尽管清洁能 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations in early trading on December 5, rebounding in the afternoon to surpass the $4,250 mark, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4,257 per ounce at the close of A-shares [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 0.81%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 2.25%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) gained 2.21% [1] - Recent labor market data has shown mixed signals, with initial jobless claims dropping to a three-year low, but the ADP report indicated a decrease in private sector employment [1] Group 2 - Market focus has shifted to the upcoming release of the U.S. September PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, noted signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market, suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is likely [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that rising inflation rates in the U.S. are unlikely to disrupt their forecast for the federal funds rate, with potential inflation rates having dropped to around 2% [1]

4 December 2025 | 9:17PM HKT Economics Research ASIA IN FOCUS Higher Gold Prices Mask Softer Underlying Inflation Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Santanu Sengupta +91(22)6616-9042 | santanu.sengupta@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Arjun Varma +91(22)6616-9043 | arjun.varma@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Xinquan Chen ...

Group 1 - FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 Index, FTSE China A50 Index, FTSE China A150 Index, FTSE China A200 Index, and FTSE China A400 Index, effective after the market close on December 19, 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that the changes to the FTSE China 50 Index and FTSE China A50 Index could trigger over $850 million in capital flows, with significant passive investment expected in sectors such as metal producers and healthcare [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Goldman Sachs research team, led by Jan Hatzius, indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of cooling, strongly suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month [1] Labor Market Analysis - U.S. job growth in September plummeted to 39,000, significantly below market expectations [1] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 surged to 8.5%, highlighting structural impacts from AI technology applications and productivity improvements [1] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the U.S. economy will rebound to a growth rate of 2% to 2.5% by 2026, driven by easing tariff policies, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1] - The firm anticipates that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in January 2026, followed by further easing in March and June, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [1]

Group 1 - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, with traders betting on a 25 basis point cut in December due to weak employment data [2][3] - Goldman Sachs reports that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has risen to 87%, with discussions about the next Federal Reserve chair ongoing [4][6] - Kevin Hassett, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, may struggle to implement rapid rate cuts desired by President Trump due to a lack of authority within the Federal Reserve [4][9] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, indicates that while a December rate cut is likely, the monetary policy outlook for 2026 is uncertain, predicting a slowdown in easing measures [6][7] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with only 39,000 jobs added in September and rising unemployment rates among college graduates [8] - Concerns about Hassett's potential appointment have led to investor worries regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with some viewing him as a puppet of Trump [9][10]

Report Information - The report is from Fubon Securities (Asia) and focuses on bond market information, with the date of December 2, 2025 [1] Key Information of Top 20 Active Bonds Oracle Corporation - Two bonds with coupon rates of 5.2% and 6.25%, issuance dates of September 24, 2025, and November 7, 2022, respectively, and maturities in 2035 and 2032. Another bond with a 3.25% coupon was issued on November 7, 2017, and matures in 2027. Market prices range from 97.494 - 98.096, 105.539 - 106.123, and 97.641 - 98.203. YTMs are 5.45%, 5.19%, and 4.22%, respectively. Issuance volumes are 4 billion, 2.25 billion, and 2.75 billion USD [4] Raytheon Technologies Corporation - A bond with a 5.75% coupon, issued on November 6, 2023, matures on November 8, 2026. Market price is 101.196 - 101.748, YTM is 3.82%, and issuance volume is 1.25 billion USD [4] Standard Chartered Group Limited - A perpetual bond with a 7% coupon, issued on November 4, 2025, with the next call date on November 14, 2035. Market price is 101.888 - 102.821, YTM is 7.33%, and issuance volume is 1 billion USD [4] Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited/Hong Kong - Two bonds with coupon rates of 5.082% and 4.507%, issued on November 19, 2025, maturing in 2035 and 2030. Market prices are 99.79 - 100.358 and 99.915 - 100.473. YTMs are 5.04% and 4.4%, respectively. Issuance volumes are 600 million and 500 million USD [4] HSBC Holdings plc - A bond with a 5.133% coupon, issued on October 30, 2025, matures on November 6, 2036. Market price is 100.138 - 100.704, YTM is 5.1%, and issuance volume is 2.25 billion USD [4] Amazon.com, Inc. - Two bonds with coupon rates of 4.65% and 4.35%, issued on November 17, 2025, maturing in 2035 and 2033. Market prices are 100.202 - 100.768 and 100.025 - 100.581. YTMs are 4.55% and 4.26%, respectively. Issuance volumes are 3.5 billion and 1.5 billion USD [4] Meta Platforms, Inc. - Two bonds with coupon rates of 4.6% and 4.875%, issued on October 30, 2025, maturing in 2032 and 2035. Market prices are 100.832 - 101.384 and 100.384 - 100.959. YTMs are 4.37% and 4.75%, respectively. Issuance volumes are 4 billion and 6.5 billion USD [4] Alphabet Inc. - A bond with a 4.7% coupon, issued on November 3, 2025, matures on November 15, 2035. Market price is 100.904 - 101.483, YTM is 4.51%, and issuance volume is 3.5 billion USD [4] Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - A bond with a 3.5% coupon, issued on November 10, 2016, matures on November 16, 2026. Market price is 99.243 - 99.831, YTM is 3.68%, and issuance volume is 2.75 billion USD [4] Visa Inc. - A bond with a 4.15% coupon, issued on December 9, 2015, matures on December 14, 2035. Market price is 96.842 - 97.443, YTM is 4.47%, and issuance volume is 1.5 billion USD [4] Lloyds Banking Group plc - A perpetual bond with a 6.625% coupon, issued on October 27, 2025, with the next call date on September 27, 2035. Market price is 98.952 - 99.822, YTM is 7.35%, and issuance volume is 1 billion USD [4] Sumitomo Mitsui Aviation Capital Finance - A bond with a 5.25% coupon, issued on November 19, 2025, matures on November 26, 2035. Market price is 99.741 - 100.333, YTM is 5.21%, and issuance volume is 750 million USD [4] First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC - A perpetual bond with a 5.875% coupon, issued on November 20, 2025, with the next call date on May 28, 2031. Market price is 100.494 - 101.237, YTM is 6.67%, and issuance volume is 1 billion USD [4] Vale Overseas Limited - A bond with a 6% coupon, issued on November 18, 2025, matures in 2056. Market price is 99.329 - 99.999, YTM is 7.15%, and issuance volume is 750 million USD [4] SoftBank Group Corp. - A perpetual bond with a 6.875% coupon, issued on July 12, 2017, with the next call date on July 19, 2027. Market price is 97.411 - 98.393, YTM is 9.09%, and issuance volume is 1.75 billion USD [4]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, with a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December due to weak employment data [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Traders are betting on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Goldman Sachs indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. - As of December 5, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has risen to 87%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 13% [3][5]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate cuts in January 2026, with potential further cuts in March and June, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [6]. Group 2: Employment Market Insights - Goldman Sachs reports a significant cooling in the U.S. labor market, with only 39,000 jobs added in September and new layoffs occurring in October [8]. - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 has risen to 8.5%, a 70% increase from the lowest point in 2022, indicating a deteriorating job market for this demographic [8]. - The adverse employment conditions may negatively impact consumer spending, potentially leading to further rate cuts in the future [8]. Group 3: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Leadership - There are concerns regarding the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, with analysts doubting his ability to implement rapid rate cuts desired by President Trump [3][9]. - Market participants express worries that Hassett's leadership could compromise the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is a significant concern for investors [9][10]. - Discussions among Wall Street investors indicate skepticism about Hassett's capability to gain consensus within the currently divided Federal Reserve Board [10].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity price surge is expected to end, with a supply surplus storm projected to impact most industrial metals by 2026 [1][11]. Group 1: Copper - Goldman Sachs predicts a short-term oversupply of copper, with a forecasted surplus of 500,000 tons in 2025, leading to price difficulties in maintaining above $11,000 per ton [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for copper remains positive, with structural supply constraints and strong demand from sectors like energy transition and AI, supporting a price floor at $10,000 per ton [5][6]. - The average LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 has been raised from $10,415 to $10,710, with expectations of a slight price correction in the second half post-tariff implementation [5][6]. Group 2: Aluminum - Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on aluminum, predicting LME aluminum prices will drop to $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026 due to a significant supply surplus of 1.1 million tons [7][8]. - The anticipated supply surge is driven by new capacities from Indonesia and India, alongside increased production from Chinese overseas investments [7][8]. Group 3: Lithium - Despite a recent rebound in lithium prices, Goldman Sachs views this as a temporary phenomenon, forecasting a 23% decline to around $9,500 per ton by the end of 2026 due to increased supply from Africa and Australia [9][10]. - The short-term tightness in lithium supply is attributed to higher-than-expected demand for energy storage systems and operational pauses in some Chinese lithium mines [9]. Group 4: Iron Ore - The outlook for iron ore is bleak, with a projected increase in Chinese port inventories by 51 million tons in 2026, alongside a 1% decline in global seaborne demand [10]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that iron ore prices will fall to $88 per ton by the end of 2026, driven by the need to eliminate high-cost supply from the market [10]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the current rise in industrial metal prices is based on macroeconomic sentiment rather than solid fundamentals, indicating a potential market correction in 2026 [11][12]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a period of market differentiation, where only metals like copper, with genuine supply-demand tension, will remain resilient [12].