美元的贬值已在重塑全球货币流动格局。随着投资者纷纷寻求避险，欧元、日元和瑞士法郎等避险资产 正受到青睐。由梅拉・钱丹(Meera Chandan)领导的摩根大通策略师5月向投资者表示，维持对美元的看 跌立场，转而建议增持日元、欧元和澳元。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利对美元前景发出警示，预测随着美联储降息举措生效，美元在未来一年 将大幅贬值。该银行预计，美元指数可能暴跌9%，甚至可能跌至自疫情初期低点以来未见的水平。 随着交易员和分析师对美国总统唐纳德・特朗普具颠覆性的贸易政策展开评估，摩根士丹利的报告加入 了质疑美元前景的行列。 该行董事总经理马修・霍恩巴赫(Matthew Hornbach)等策略师在近日报告中指出，美元指数将下跌约 9%，2026年同期将跌至91点左右。这一预测意味着美元跌势将进一步加剧，而贸易动荡正持续对美元 形成压力。 不过，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示，当前看跌情绪尚未达到历史极端水平，这暗示美 元未来可能进一步走弱。 策略师指出，这一变化是由美联储激进的宽松路径推动的，市场预计到2025年年中，美联储将累计降息 175个基点，这一降息周期始于2024年9月的意外 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a potential growth estimate for Korea below 2.0% from 2026 onwards, highlighting the urgency for structural reforms [5][26]. Core Insights - Korea is facing significant demographic challenges, with a fertility rate that fell to 0.75 in 2024, the lowest in the world, and a projected halving of the workforce by 2065 [7][9]. - The new government's commitment to structural reform is emphasized, with a focus on long-term solutions rather than short-term fixes [7][26]. - The pension reform legislated for the first time in 18 years aims to improve the financial sustainability of the pension fund in response to a rapidly aging population [26][32]. Summary by Sections Demographic Trends - Korea's total population began to decline in 2025 due to the fastest dropping fertility rate globally [9]. - The fertility rate has shown a slight rebound in 2024, providing a window of opportunity to support critical age groups [15][16]. Economic Reforms - The new government under President JM Lee is prioritizing economic recovery and addressing low birth rates as key agenda items [59]. - Labor market reforms are necessary to address dualism, gender wage gaps, and strict working hour regulations [71]. Pension and Consumption - The income replacement ratio is forecasted to fall to 40% by 2028, which is below the OECD recommended level [32][34]. - As aging accelerates, the number of pension recipients is expected to outpace contributors by 2047, impacting household consumption [44][45]. Capital Market Reforms - The government plans to mitigate the "Korea discount" through capital market and governance reforms, including changes to corporate transactional rules [72][74]. - The Commercial Code amendment bill is on a fast track for approval, aiming to enhance corporate governance and shareholder returns [78][79].

May 18, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea The Détente – What It Does and Doesn't Mean Following Monday's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, the response in risk markets has been resoundingly positive through the first four trading days. The S&P 500 is up 4.5% from last Friday's close, and year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April. Credit markets have also rallied notably, ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is rapidly increasing oil production quotas to reclaim market share lost to North American shale oil producers, but actual production increases have not yet materialized significantly, keeping Brent crude prices stable around $65-66 per barrel [1][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production quotas by approximately 1 million barrels per day from March to June, but actual production growth remains challenging [1][3] - Despite the increase in quotas, Saudi Arabia's oil production has not shown significant improvement post-announcement [1][3] - Investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, believe this shift aims to regain market share from North American competitors and penalize OPEC+ members who consistently exceed production quotas [3] Group 2: Market Outlook and Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley forecasts that OPEC+ core members' oil supply will increase by about 420,000 barrels per day from June to September, with half of this increase expected from Saudi Arabia [3] - The firm maintains a bearish outlook on overall oil supply, predicting an increase of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day from non-OPEC+ sources, exceeding the anticipated global demand increase of 800,000 barrels per day [3] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its oil price forecasts, predicting a supply surplus that could lead to lower peak production levels for U.S. shale oil [4][5] Group 3: Price Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to average $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026, down from previous estimates [5] - The firm also predicts WTI crude prices to average $56 per barrel in 2025 and $51 per barrel in 2026, reflecting a downward revision from earlier forecasts [5]

Group 1 - Major overseas financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC, are optimistic about Chinese assets, highlighting their attractive valuation and potential for continued capital inflow [1][7] - The valuation advantage of Chinese assets is evident, with the A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio significantly lower than that of U.S. stocks, making it a "valuation pit" for global investors [2][4] - The overall return rate from investing in Chinese assets has outperformed that of U.S. dollar assets, with a reported cumulative return of +11.3% for the MSCI China Index compared to a -3.3% decline for a weighted U.S. stock and bond portfolio [4] Group 2 - The stability of the Renminbi is bolstered by the Chinese central bank's measures against capital outflow, which enhances the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [5][6] - A stable Renminbi exchange rate positively impacts corporate profitability and valuation, particularly for export-dependent companies, thereby boosting investor confidence and attracting foreign capital [6] - The Chinese stock market is expected to benefit from a stronger Renminbi and a weaker U.S. dollar, leading to increased capital inflow [7] Group 3 - The revaluation of Chinese assets is underway, with significant earnings growth in the technology sector, indicating potential for further valuation adjustments [8] - The China A500 Index ETF (563880) is highlighted as a strategic investment opportunity, reflecting economic trends and structural changes in the industry [9] - The China A500 Index ETF offers low management fees and a predictable income distribution mechanism, enhancing its appeal to investors [9]

Group 1 - Major foreign institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts and stock index targets for China, indicating optimism towards the Chinese economy and assets [1] - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its target for Chinese stock indices, citing improved return on equity, rising valuations, and support for the private sector as key reasons for its positive outlook [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight position on Chinese stocks, noting that a stronger RMB against the USD historically correlates with better performance in the Chinese stock market [1] Group 2 - The continuous opening of China's capital markets creates favorable conditions for foreign institutions to invest in Chinese assets, with the CSRC emphasizing the importance of top-level institutional design for further opening [2] - Experts from foreign institutions agree that the ongoing benefits from China's capital market opening policies will enhance cross-border trade and investment facilitation [2] - Deutsche Bank has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.7%, attributing this to monetary easing and fiscal spending [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley has revised its economic growth forecasts for China, increasing the predictions for the next two years from 4.2% and 4.0% to 4.5% and 4.2% respectively [3] - Nomura has also raised its GDP growth forecast for China, increasing the second quarter year-on-year growth prediction from 3.7% to 4.8% and the full-year forecast from 4.0% to 4.5% [3]

Economic Growth Outlook - Several international investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in the second half of the year, anticipating a long-term strengthening of the RMB exchange rate [1][3] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China, Xu Yi, noted that the combination of loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal policy is expected to support the economy, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in the 2025 economic growth forecast [3] - Morgan Stanley also revised its growth expectations for the next two years, citing reduced urgency for new policies due to easing external shocks, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and emphasizing technological innovation [3] Currency Exchange Rate Predictions - The RMB has appreciated by 2% against the USD this year, but has depreciated by approximately 5% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies [4] - Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB/USD exchange rate will rise to 7.0 by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026, supported by long-term trade competitiveness [4] - Morgan Stanley expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB against the USD, attributing this to a weakening of the dollar's safe-haven status and increased demand for hedging against currency risk [4] Monetary Policy Insights - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the People's Bank of China will reduce the frequency of interest rate cuts, opting instead for liquidity support through reserve requirement ratio cuts and loan facilities, projecting a policy rate of 1.3% by the end of 2025 [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the decision-makers will utilize existing policy space and quasi-fiscal tools to stimulate the economy, potentially introducing fiscal stimulus of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB, along with further interest rate cuts of 15-20 basis points and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut [4]

Economic Growth Forecasts - Major international financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have raised their 2025 economic growth forecasts for China by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points, citing positive effects from a series of incremental policies implemented since September 2024 [1][2] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The easing of monetary policy by the People's Bank of China from September to December 2024 is highlighted as a key driver for economic support, with a projected fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% for the first time during the upcoming Two Sessions [2] Foreign Investment and Market Dynamics - China's continuous policy openness and improvements in the business environment have led to a 12.1% year-on-year increase in newly established foreign-invested enterprises, totaling 18,832 in the first four months [3] - The Hong Kong IPO market has raised a total of $9 billion since 2025, reflecting a 320% year-on-year increase, indicating strong interest from international investors [4] Resilience and Confidence in the Economy - Many foreign financial institutions emphasize the "resilience" of the Chinese economy, noting that despite external challenges, domestic growth remains robust [5] - The strong technological innovation capabilities of Chinese enterprises are viewed as a critical factor for continued foreign investment confidence [8] Focus on Technology and Consumption - The technology and consumption sectors are identified as major growth areas, attracting global capital and showcasing significant potential [9] - Changes in consumer behavior, including the rise of domestic brands and innovative consumption patterns, are emerging as new highlights in the consumption sector [14][17]

Core Viewpoint - Several international investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, anticipating that trade competitiveness will support a stronger RMB in the long term [1][2]. Economic Growth Forecasts - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China, Xu Yi, has raised the 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points, citing resilient service sector output and retail performance, along with a more proactive policy stance to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [2][3]. - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its economic growth forecasts for China, increasing the growth estimates for the next two years by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, due to reduced urgency for new policies following external shocks [3][4]. - Nomura has raised its GDP growth forecast for China's second quarter from 3.7% to 4.8% and increased the annual GDP growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points, reflecting positive developments in US-China trade talks [3]. Currency Outlook - Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB will strengthen against the USD, forecasting an exchange rate of 7.0 by the end of 2025 and 6.7 by the end of 2026, supported by improved trade competitiveness [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley also expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB, noting that the RMB depreciated by 11.5% during the 2018-2019 US-China tariff increases, which partially offset the tariff impacts [5][6]. Monetary Policy Expectations - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the People's Bank of China will reduce the frequency of interest rate cuts, focusing instead on reserve requirement ratio cuts and liquidity support [7]. - Morgan Stanley expects the government to potentially introduce an additional fiscal stimulus of 500 to 1,000 billion RMB to support infrastructure investments, alongside further interest rate cuts [7].

Group 1: Economic Growth Forecasts - Deutsche Bank raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China by 0.2 percentage points to 4.7%, expecting long-term support for the RMB due to trade competitiveness [1] - Morgan Stanley increased its economic growth forecasts for China for this year and next to 4.5% and 4.2% respectively, citing reduced urgency for new policies due to easing external shocks [1] Group 2: Economic Activity and Consumer Behavior - Deutsche Bank noted that while economic activity in China has slowed due to trade tensions, the extent was less than expected, with strong industrial production and resilient service sector output [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a moderate recovery in domestic demand, projecting household consumption growth rates of 4.9% and 4.6% for this year and next, driven by policies like trade-in programs and targeted subsidies [1][2] Group 3: Policy Measures and Financial Support - The Chinese government is expected to continue monetary easing and accelerate fiscal spending, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to boost credit and domestic demand [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the decision-makers will utilize existing policy space and quasi-fiscal tools to stimulate the economy in the second and third quarters of this year [2] Group 4: Stock Market and Investment Sentiment - Morgan Stanley observed a structural improvement in the Chinese stock market since the second half of 2024, particularly for offshore Chinese stocks, with a sustainable improvement in return on equity and valuation mechanisms [2] - The Chinese stock market has outperformed other major markets year-to-date, indicating a shift in investor expectations following a prolonged earnings downgrade cycle [2] Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Outlook - The RMB has appreciated by 2% against the USD since the beginning of the year, with Morgan Stanley forecasting continued mild appreciation due to reduced demand for USD assets and a slowdown in the US economy [3] - Factors such as easing trade tensions and stabilization in corporate earnings in China are expected to provide upward momentum for stock valuations and the RMB [3]