Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a favorable investment rating due to the rising cost structure and expected increase in coal prices [2][6]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a structural change with a systematic increase in the cost base, driven by factors such as increased mining depth, stricter environmental compliance, and rising safety investments. This has led to a higher price floor for coal, making it unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2015 [8][7]. - The report emphasizes that the rising costs are not a temporary phenomenon but are supported by rigid factors such as labor costs, safety investments, and environmental governance, which are expected to persist in the long term [7][8]. - The anticipated tightening of supply due to production constraints and limited new capacity is expected to support a steady increase in coal prices [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Cost Research Framework - The report outlines the components of coal production costs, including direct and indirect costs, with a focus on production costs as the most significant element [16][17]. 2. Thermal Coal: Cost Support and Price Floor - From 2015 to 2024, the average complete cost of thermal coal for sample enterprises increased from 216 CNY/ton to 306 CNY/ton, with a CAGR of 4%. The production cost rose from 161 CNY/ton to 231 CNY/ton [29][30]. - In 2024, benchmark companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy have complete costs of 251, 294, and 310 CNY/ton respectively [29][30]. 3. Coking Coal: Rising Cost Support - The complete cost of coking coal for sample companies increased from 546 CNY/ton to 1051 CNY/ton from 2015 to 2024, with a CAGR of 7.6%. The production cost rose from 432 CNY/ton to 814 CNY/ton [5][6]. - The report indicates that the cost structure for coking coal is also expected to rise due to increased mining difficulty and regulatory pressures [5][6]. 4. Supply Tightening and Market Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal production has been in negative growth since July, influenced by loss pressures and capacity checks, which are expected to tighten supply further [6][7]. - Import volumes have been declining for eight consecutive months, limiting the ability to supplement domestic supply [6][7]. 5. Key Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to more elastic stocks like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co. [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the overseas pharmaceutical sector, particularly focusing on innovative drugs and industry chain opportunities, with an investment rating of "Overweight" [1][6]. Core Insights - Multiple policies are supporting the development of the innovative drug industry, with domestic innovative drug transactions reaching historical highs in both value and quantity. The sector's valuation has rebounded from a low point, and leading companies are achieving profitability through increased commercial sales and licensing income [6][8]. - Companies like BeiGene are experiencing significant growth, with global sales exceeding $1 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 51% year-on-year increase. The company anticipates a positive GAAP operating profit for the full year 2025, raising its revenue guidance to $5.1-5.3 billion [1][6]. - Innovent Biologics is expanding its pipeline with a dual focus on oncology and non-oncology products, expecting to achieve positive non-IFRS net profit and EBITDA in 2024, with continued growth projected for 2025 [2][6]. - The report highlights the increasing R&D investments by leading pharmaceutical companies, which are enhancing their innovative pipelines and accelerating their transformation towards innovation [3][7]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overseas Pharmaceuticals - The report emphasizes the focus on innovative drugs and the opportunities within the industry chain for 2026, noting the historical highs in transaction amounts and numbers for domestic innovative drugs going overseas [6][8]. - BeiGene's overseas sales are highlighted, with Q3 2025 global sales surpassing $1 billion and a significant year-on-year profit turnaround [1][6]. - Innovent Biologics is noted for its strategic partnerships and expected profitability in the coming years [2][6]. Section 2: Pharma Sector - Leading companies are rapidly increasing their R&D investments, which is expected to strengthen their innovative pipelines and global competitiveness [3][7]. - Companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products are projected to see substantial growth in their innovative product revenues, with significant contributions expected in the coming years [3][7]. Section 3: CXO Sector - The report indicates a recovery in investment and financing for innovative drugs, which is likely to drive early-stage R&D investments and boost demand [8]. - Emerging fields such as peptides and ADCs are expected to open new growth opportunities, with a recommendation to focus on companies like WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics [8].

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to operate smoothly in 2025, with convergence between the US and non-US economies, while asset bubbles and differentiation coexist [8] - The AI sector is anticipated to drive a "rigid bubble" narrative, reflecting strong expectations against weak realities, with risk assets and safe-haven assets moving upward together [8][9] - The macroeconomic foundation for the AI bubble includes stable global economic conditions, a low probability of a hard landing for the US economy, and a favorable liquidity environment due to ongoing interest rate cuts [8][11] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Strategy - The Hang Seng Index has seen a 29.15% increase in the first ten months of the year, indicating a bull market driven by valuation expansion and upward revisions in earnings expectations [12] - The potential return for the Hang Seng Index in a neutral scenario is approximately 22.92%, with an optimistic scenario reaching 33.83% [12][13] - The structural changes in the Hong Kong market, including the increasing representation of technology and new economy sectors, suggest a systemic elevation in valuations [12] Group 3: Transportation Sector Investment Strategy - The investment focus for the transportation sector in 2026 will center on four main lines: long-cycle shipping and aviation, resource products in conjunction with the Belt and Road Initiative, technology-enabled new tracks, and high-dividend asset value reassessment [14][15] - The shipping sector is expected to experience a long-term upward cycle driven by supply constraints and inflation elasticity, with key stocks identified for investment [15][18] - The aviation sector is also projected to improve due to supply-side constraints and increased demand, with specific airlines highlighted as investment opportunities [15][18]

证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 非银会融/ 证券■ 时玩人分析 2025 年 11 月 20 日 相关研究 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 重申看好并购重组投资主线! ――中金公司拟换股吸收（中金公司 A 股）合并东兴证 券、信达证券点评 事件: 11 月 19 日，中金公司发布关于筹划重大资产重组的停牌公告，中金公司拟换股吸收（中金公司 A 股）合并东兴证券、信达证券，预计停牌时间不超过 25 个交易日。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申万宏源研究微信服务号 童申看好 2026 年并购重组行业投资主线。我们 2026 年度策略提示 "并购重组仍是中期主线"之 o 一，总结 4 种投资思路：1）同一实际控制人旗下券商整合、2) 解决一参一控同业竞争、3) 区域 特色券商做大做强诉求、4）国资整合民营券商。本次中金公司拟整合信达证券、东兴证券可归属 于第 1 种思路。后续建议持续关注同一实控人下券商 ...

行 业 及 产 业 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 非银金融/ 证券Ⅱ 2025 年 11 月 20 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 重申看好并购重组投资主线！ 看好 ——中金公司拟换股吸收（中金公司 A 股）合并东兴证 券、信达证券点评 事件：11 月 19 日，中金公司发布关于筹划重大资产重组的停牌公告，中金公司拟换股吸收（中金公司 A 股）合并东兴证券、信达证券，预计停牌时间不超过 25 个交易日。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 ⚫ 重申看好 2026 年并购重组行业投资主线。我们 2026 年度策略提示"并购重组仍是中期主线"之 一，总结 4 种投资思路：1）同一实际控制人旗下券商整合、2）解决一参一控同业竞争、3）区域 特色券商做大做强诉求、4）国资整合民营券商。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 敢突破，赢非凡 2026年可转债市场展望 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 王明路 A0230525060003 徐亚 A0230524060002 2025.11.20 2026年转债市场有确定性+弹性空间，仓位分歧下降，更加需要关注个券超额 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 2025年回顾：三种定价思维的变化。2025年6月之前，可转债的定价思维依旧是周期思维，转债是典型的"上有顶下 有底"的资产，全市场的中位数价格处在130元之下，具有配置价值。2025年6月~9月，可转债的定价思维转变为权益 定价思维，转债的弹性被正股弹性放大；此时，不强赎的个券、上市半年内的个券一旦其正股具有较大的弹性，转债的 价格就会上行，转股溢价率也会很高。2025年10月之后，固收+市场中的负债主要流向了转债的交易盘，这与2025Q2 负债主要流向配置盘不同，与此同时，从对转债的持有规模来看，配置盘配置转债的规模远远小于交易盘，配置盘负债 规模以及负债的边际增量不及交易盘，这就意味着转债市场的定价思维，走向了负债驱动思维。整体来看，2025年全 年转债市场的定 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3947 | 0.18 | 2.79 | -1.33 | | 深证综指 | 2473 | -0.5 | 3.19 | -1.38 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.47 | 1.62 | 18.44 | | 中盘指数 | -0.23 | 1.21 | 25.86 | | 小盘指数 | -0.65 | 3.59 | 22.81 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 渔业 | 12.77 | 36.28 | 40.33 | | 贵金属 | 6.19 | -8.7 | 33.26 | | 航海装备Ⅱ | 4.22 | 3.11 | 11.04 | | 地面兵装Ⅱ | 3.33 | 3.69 | 44.5 | | 能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6] Core Insights - The company reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with a revenue of RMB 7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing the previous guidance of 2%-6% [5] - The company continues to expand its mid-to-high-end brand strategy, launching a new brand "Quanjidaguang" [5] - The light-asset model is driving rapid expansion and improving profitability, with a significant increase in revenue from management franchise and licensing, which grew by 27.2% year-on-year to RMB 3.3 billion [5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 21,882 million - 2024: RMB 23,891 million - 2025E: RMB 25,378 million - 2026E: RMB 26,562 million - 2027E: RMB 28,011 million - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023: RMB 4,085 million - 2024: RMB 3,048 million - 2025E: RMB 4,740 million - 2026E: RMB 5,742 million - 2027E: RMB 6,259 million [5][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 34% in 2023 to 41% by 2027 [5][6] Market Data - The company's closing price is USD 45.22, with a market capitalization of USD 1.38 billion [3] - The company has a total of 12,702 hotels in operation globally, with 124.6 million rooms [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upcoming implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality Development of Public Funds" will bring opportunities for quantitative public funds. Active quantitative index - like enhanced products are expected to have better growth space, and attention should also be paid to the layout of quantitative fixed - income + products [44]. - In the public quantitative industry, the scale of index - enhanced products has increased, and there are differences in the scale and performance of different types of funds and products [6][14][19]. - For the layout of active quantitative index - like enhanced products, it can be considered in traditional broad - based and mainstream active equity benchmark tracks, and attention should also be paid to challenges and opportunities in different directions such as value style, industry quantification, and unique strategies [47][68][77]. - In the field of quantitative fixed - income +, there is still much market space to expand. Different management teams have different strategies, and various strategies such as low - wave strategies, position strategies, and multi - strategy combinations can be used to create products [28][93][98]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Public Quantitative Industry Status - **Top Fund Companies in Equity Quantitative Management Scale**: The top three fund companies in equity quantitative management scale are Bodao Fund, Huaxia Fund, and Fuguo Fund, and the scale of the top five fund companies exceeds 20 billion yuan [6]. - **Top 10 Quantitative Products with the Largest Scale Growth in 2025**: As of Q3, all the top 10 quantitative products with the largest scale growth in 2025 are active quantitative funds. The index - enhanced products with the largest scale growth are Harvest Semiconductor Enhancement Fund and Penghua CSI 1000 Index Enhancement [11][14]. - **Index - Enhanced Scale Changes**: From 2022 to Q3 2025, the scale of index - enhanced products increased from less than 150 billion yuan to nearly 200 billion yuan, a growth of 33%. The proportion of the three major broad - based indexes has decreased, and the proportion of other index - enhanced products has slowly increased [19]. - **Quantitative Fixed - Income + Market Share**: The market share of quantitative fixed - income + is about 6.0572 billion yuan, and there is still much market space to expand. Successful operation teams include Fuguo and China Merchants [28]. 3.2 Focus on Active Quantitative Index - like Enhanced Product Layout - **Advantages of Active Quantitative Index - like Enhanced Products**: After the implementation of the "Action Plan", the cost of investor education for index - like enhanced products will decrease. Compared with strict index - enhanced products, active quantitative index - like enhanced products have looser constraints and can achieve better excess returns in the long run [44]. - **Layout in Mainstream Benchmark Tracks**: In addition to traditional broad - based tracks, attention should also be paid to the layout of index - like enhanced products in mainstream active equity benchmark tracks, which may establish a unique market reputation in terms of information ratio and excess return stability [47]. - **Transition to Floating Management Fee Products**: Quantitative models are ideal for managing floating management fee products because they can ensure relatively stable excess returns and help fund companies collect management fees [50]. - **Challenges of Partial - Stock Fund Index - Enhanced Products**: After the implementation of the "Action Plan", products benchmarked against 885001 will face challenges, but products that can continuously outperform the entire market of active equity still have unique value [53]. - **Growth Style Strategy**: The growth style strategy based on analyst expectations can stably outperform 885001, which provides an alternative idea [58]. - **Factor Resonance Strategy**: The 885001 enhancement strategy can be upgraded to identify over - heated styles, which provides feasibility for the development of multi - strategy or factor - rotation products [63]. - **Value Style Direction**: The value - style index - like enhanced products are suitable for layout because the competition in the value style of active equity funds is less intense, and quantitative methods have advantages in value style [68]. - **Industry Quantification**: Industry quantification has not been very successful in the past, but in policy - encouraged technology directions, quantitative methods may gain long - term performance recognition [69]. - **Unique Strategies**: Unique strategies such as industry rotation, factor rotation, multi - strategy combinations, and volatility - control strategies have unique configuration values and can be considered for productization [77][82][86]. 3.3 Focus on Quantitative Fixed - Income + Layout - **Quantitative Advantages in Low - Wave Strategies**: Quantitative methods can play advantages in volatility control and portfolio exposure control in fixed - income + products. Different low - wave stock combinations can be tried, such as dividend combinations [93]. - **High - Wave Fixed - Income + Products**: In 2025, high - wave fixed - income + products emerged. Quantitative methods can provide different high - wave index - based index - enhanced fixed - income + products, but investor adaptation work is important [96]. - **Position and Asset Allocation Strategies**: Quantitative strategies such as low - wave strategies and risk - budget strategies can be used for position management in fixed - income + products, and asset allocation strategies such as risk parity and all - weather strategies can also be practiced [98]. - **Multi - Strategy Fixed - Income + Products**: Using quantitative means to create different style stock combinations and then rotating them in the fixed - income + base can provide multi - strategy fixed - income + products, and different combination methods can further enrich the risk characteristics of products [102].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huazhu (HTHT) [2][5] Core Insights - Huazhu's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing previous guidance of 2%-6% [5] - The company continues to expand its light-asset model, with a significant increase in revenue from management and franchise operations, which grew by 27.2% to RMB 3.3 billion [5] - The introduction of the new mid-to-high-end brand "Quanjing Daguan" aims to enhance the company's brand portfolio [5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Huazhu are as follows: - 2023: RMB 21,882 million - 2024: RMB 23,891 million - 2025E: RMB 25,378 million - 2026E: RMB 26,562 million - 2027E: RMB 28,011 million - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 4,085 million - 2024: RMB 3,048 million - 2025E: RMB 4,740 million - 2026E: RMB 5,742 million - 2027E: RMB 6,259 million - The gross margin is expected to improve from 34% in 2023 to 41% by 2027 [4][6] Operational Highlights - As of the end of Q3 2025, Huazhu operates 12,702 hotels globally, with a total of 1.246 million rooms [5] - The company opened 749 new hotels in Q3 2025, aiming for a total of 2,300 new openings for the year [5] - The domestic RevPAR for Q3 2025 was RMB 256, showing a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, while the overseas RevPAR improved by 6.1% to €87 [5] Strategic Developments - The company is focused on enhancing its mid-to-high-end offerings and has launched the "Quanjing Daguan" brand to diversify its product line [5] - A dividend payment of approximately RMB 1.8 billion in Q3 reflects the company's confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns [5]