Group 1 - The 10-1Y yield spread may face widening pressure due to changes in macroeconomic narratives and the weakening economic cycle since 2023, which has shifted the trading behavior and expectations [6][12][18] - The 30-10Y yield spread is expected to narrow in the short term, but long-term observations are needed to assess whether the fundamentals can continue to improve [18][30][39] - The government bond supply is nearing its end in 2025, but broad fiscal expansion is expected in 2026, which may create supply-demand matching pressures on the long-term yield spreads [39][42] Group 2 - The 10-1Y yield spread may widen under the constraints of bond asset cost-effectiveness, while opportunities for curve trading in the 30-10Y yield spread are worth noting [48][49] - The current 30-10Y yield spread has reached a relatively high level, suggesting potential for flattening curve trades [39][40] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics of government bonds, particularly in the context of fiscal policies and central bank actions [42][39]

2025 年 10 月 26 日 北交所战配资格优化，建议北证主 题公募、险资积极参与 ——北交所策略周报（20251020-20251026） 本周策略观点： 本周市场行情： 北交所新股： 新三板动态： ⚫ 本周新挂牌 15 家，摘牌 6 家，周新增计划融资 0.88 亿元，完成融资 7.99 亿元。 风险提示： ⚫ 个股业绩季度波动过大风险，宏观经济下行的风险。 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 郑菁华 (8621)23297818× zhengjh@swsresearch.com 研 究 专 题 研 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanjing Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Yanjing Beer has shown a continuous improvement in profitability, driven by cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures. The company has achieved a notable increase in net profit and revenue, exceeding market expectations [6] - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.555 billion, 1.885 billion, and 2.170 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 47.3%, 21.3%, and 15.1% [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the U8 product as a core national product and the expansion of regional and specialty products, positioning the company well within the premiumization trend in the beer industry [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 15.532 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.555 billion, with a significant year-on-year increase of 47.3% [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 42.7% in 2025, reflecting an improvement in profitability [5] - The report indicates that the company achieved a gross profit margin of 50.2% in Q3 2025, up 2.16 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21 [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in Q3 performance but remains optimistic about the accelerated release of high-frequency and high-speed resins [1][7] - The company is increasing R&D investments, particularly in high-frequency and high-speed resin products, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand in AI computing [7] - The financial outlook has been slightly adjusted, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 4.00 billion, 5.99 billion, and 7.85 billion respectively [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 3.803 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 283 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [7] - The company expects total revenue to reach 5.110 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 15.56%, with a slight increase year-on-year but a decrease quarter-on-quarter [7] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.39 yuan, with a PE ratio of 48 [6][7] Segment Performance - In the electronic materials segment, high-frequency and high-speed resins saw a sales volume increase of 50% year-on-year, driven by demand from AI applications [7] - The new energy materials segment reported a sales volume of 15,300 tons in Q3 2025, with revenue of 3.35 billion, although prices faced downward pressure [7] - Optical film materials achieved a sales volume of 32,800 tons, with revenue of 3.75 billion, indicating stable growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy [1] Core Insights - Baofeng Energy's Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a total revenue of 35.545 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 8.95 billion yuan, up 97.3% year-on-year [6] - The company's core products, including polyethylene and polypropylene, showed significant sales growth despite a decline in prices, indicating strong operational resilience [6] - The Inner Mongolia Phase I project has reached full production capacity, enhancing cost advantages, while the Ningdong Phase IV project is expected to commence production by the end of 2026 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for Baofeng Energy are as follows: 55.372 billion yuan in 2025, 56.490 billion yuan in 2026, and 59.240 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 67.9%, 2.0%, and 4.9% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 13.523 billion yuan in 2025, 15.052 billion yuan in 2026, and 16.041 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 113.4%, 11.3%, and 6.6% respectively [5] - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 10 for 2025, 9 for 2026, and 8 for 2027, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [5] Operational Highlights - The company has successfully implemented advanced technologies in its Inner Mongolia project, which is the largest coal-to-olefins project globally, enhancing production efficiency and cost-effectiveness [6] - The Xinjiang project has received necessary environmental and safety approvals, further expanding the company's growth potential in the long term [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning [3][9] Core Insights - Li Ning's Q3 2025 revenue showed a marginal decline, with e-commerce and children's apparel performing relatively better. The overall revenue decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, while online sales grew in the high single digits, and offline sales declined in the high single digits [9] - The company anticipates maintaining its performance guidance for 2025, aiming for flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin despite facing some pressures. Upcoming marketing initiatives related to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics and technology releases are expected to enhance brand competitiveness [9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 27.6 - 2024: 28.7 - 2025E: 28.8 - 2026E: 30.1 - 2027E: 31.2 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 7% - 2024: 4% - 2025: 0% - 2026: 4% - 2027: 4% [8] - Net profit projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 3.19 - 2024: 3.01 - 2025E: 2.48 - 2026E: 2.64 - 2027E: 2.78 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2023: -22% - 2024: -5% - 2025: -18% - 2026: 6% - 2027: 5% [8] Operational Insights - The discount rate has deepened slightly due to increased inventory turnover, with expectations to return to a 4-5 month inventory turnover by year-end. The overall inventory turnover ratio is currently at 5-6 months [9] - The number of sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) increased to 6,132, with a net addition of 33 points in the current year. The company plans to close 10-20 direct stores while increasing wholesale points by 50 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Bosideng, Yanjiang, and others in the non-woven fabric industry, highlighting strong growth potential and market opportunities [15][21][28]. Core Views - The textile and apparel sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with the SW textile and apparel index increasing by 0.4%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 3.1 percentage points [3]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of Nike's performance, predicting significant improvements in 2026, and suggests investment opportunities in the Nike supply chain [9]. - The report identifies a trend of increasing orders in the non-woven fabric sector, with companies like Yanjiang and Jeya showing strong revenue and profit growth [9][18]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile sector is witnessing a recovery in Q3 orders, with a focus on investment opportunities in the non-woven fabric supply chain, particularly for companies like Yanjiang and Nobon [9][21]. - Recent data indicates that from January to September, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 1,061.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [42]. - Cotton prices have seen a slight increase, with the national cotton price B index reported at 14,753 yuan per ton, up 0.5% [49]. Apparel Sector - The performance of sports brands in the Hong Kong market has shown increasing divergence, with Bosideng recommended due to favorable conditions for winter clothing sales [10][12]. - The report notes that the recent drop in temperatures is expected to boost sales for winter apparel, particularly for Bosideng, which has maintained a high dividend payout ratio [12][15]. - The report highlights the importance of high-quality domestic brands in reversing market challenges, with a focus on companies like Anta and Li Ning [10]. Company Highlights - Bosideng's sales are expected to benefit from the extended sales window due to the later Chinese New Year in 2026, which is projected to enhance sales potential [12]. - Yanjiang's Q3 performance showed a revenue increase of 17% year-on-year, with a significant profit growth of 209%, confirming the trend of increasing orders [18]. - Tabo's mid-year report indicated a revenue decline of 6%, but the company continues to emphasize shareholder returns with a high dividend payout [23][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][28]. Core Views - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a resurgence in leading companies and opening new development avenues with "new products, new pricing, and new models" [3][28]. - The current monetary easing cycle highlights the advantages of commercial real estate, with a reassessment of the value of quality commercial properties already beginning to manifest [3][28]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of October 18-24, 2025, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.566 million square meters, a decrease of 1.9% week-on-week [4][6]. - Year-on-year, October transactions in these cities fell by 23%, with first and second-tier cities down 20.7% and third and fourth-tier cities down 42.6% [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.155 million square meters, down 6.1% week-on-week [12]. - Cumulatively, October transactions were down 20.1% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 38.4% compared to September [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of October 18-24, 2025, 15 cities launched 710,000 square meters of new supply, with total transactions of 1.05 million square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 1.48 [20]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.75 million square meters, a decrease of 0.4% week-on-week [20]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized the need to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector [28][31]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 13.9% year-on-year decline in real estate investment for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 6.7706 trillion yuan [28][29]. Company Dynamics - China Overseas Development reported a 14% decline in sales revenue for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 170.5 billion yuan [35]. - Poly Development issued new bonds totaling 5 billion yuan with a 2% interest rate and 25 billion yuan with a 2.21% interest rate [35][36]. Market Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 1.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 3.24%, resulting in a relative return of -1.73% [38]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for mainstream AH-listed real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 is projected at 19.7 and 17.5 times, respectively [38][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the internet media industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [10]. Core Insights - The AI value reassessment is ongoing, with significant emphasis on self-reliance in core technologies such as models and chips in China, and the upcoming earnings reports from major US tech companies are crucial for global AI investment narratives [2][10]. - The competition for entry points in the AI application market is intensifying, which is seen as key for monetizing AI applications at scale [2]. - The gaming sector has adjusted to previously high expectations, with notable valuation opportunities emerging, particularly for companies like Huatuo and Bilibili [2]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - The report highlights the strategic moves by companies like OpenAI and ByteDance in expanding their AI capabilities into e-commerce and video platforms, indicating a trend towards monetization through quality data accumulation [2]. - Key recommendations include Tencent (AI advertising, WeChat agent, AI gaming), Alibaba (cloud computing, e-commerce), Baidu (cloud services, autonomous driving), Kuaishou (AI advertising), Bilibili (AI advertising, video podcasting), and Meitu (AI design) [2]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is noted for its resilience, with Huatuo's games showing strong performance in the mobile gaming rankings, and the company is well-positioned for future growth with ample cash flow [2]. - Bilibili is highlighted for its potential in AI video and gaming, with recent game releases performing well [2]. Other Key Companies - The report discusses the fluctuating stock price of Pop Mart, indicating differing views on the lifecycle of its IP, while also noting the potential for sales growth in North America [2]. - Mango TV is in a bottoming phase but is expected to see operational improvements driven by content supply and advertising revenue [2]. - Other recommended companies include NetEase Cloud Music, Damai Entertainment, and Shanghai Film, with a focus on high-dividend stocks like Focus Media and Yangtze Media [2]. Valuation Table - A detailed valuation table is provided, showing market capitalizations and revenue projections for key companies, with Tencent Holdings valued at 53.258 billion RMB and projected revenues increasing from 6.603 billion RMB in 2024 to 8.280 billion RMB in 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, particularly highlighting the rebound opportunities in the brokerage segment [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong performance of major brokerages such as CITIC Securities and Dongfang Wealth, with significant profit growth in Q3 2025, indicating a robust recovery in the brokerage sector [3]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on high-quality development and risk management [3]. - The report identifies three main investment themes in the brokerage sector: strong head institutions benefiting from competitive landscape optimization, brokerages with high earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,660.68 with a weekly change of +3.24%, while the non-bank index closed at 2,017.91 with a change of +2.02% [6]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported changes of +2.05%, +1.85%, and +2.46% respectively [6]. Non-Bank Financial Data - As of October 24, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 20,966.76 billion, reflecting a decrease of 29.04% compared to the previous month [15][50]. - The margin trading balance reached 24,510.45 billion, an increase of 31.5% from the end of 2024 [15][47]. Key Company Announcements - China Life Insurance expects a net profit increase of approximately 50% to 70% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by effective investment strategies and market recovery [37][38]. - Dongfang Wealth reported a net profit of 9.1 billion for the first nine months of 2025, marking a 51% year-on-year increase [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading brokerages such as Guangfa Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities, as well as insurance companies like China Life and China Pacific Insurance, due to their strong fundamentals and market positioning [3].