Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328) [8] Core Views - The report suggests that short-term personnel changes will not affect the long-term operational stability of the company, with a positive outlook on the clear strategic planning for both auto and non-auto insurance, which is expected to drive continuous improvement in underwriting profitability [3][12] - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 2.14, 2.40, and 2.55 RMB respectively, with a target price of 22.82 HKD for 2025 [12] Financial Summary - **Insurance Service Revenue (Million RMB)**: - 2023A: 457,203 - 2024A: 485,223 (+6%) - 2025E: 507,552 (+5%) - 2026E: 532,082 (+5%) - 2027E: 559,006 (+5%) [6] - **Net Profit (Attributable to Parent) (Million RMB)**: - 2023A: 24,585 - 2024A: 32,173 (+30.9%) - 2025E: 47,582 (+47.9%) - 2026E: 53,294 (+12.0%) - 2027E: 56,609 (+6.2%) [6] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2023A: 13.97 - 2024A: 10.67 - 2025E: 7.22 - 2026E: 6.44 - 2027E: 6.07 [6] - **Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio**: - 2023A: 1.48 - 2024A: 1.33 - 2025E: 1.19 - 2026E: 1.05 - 2027E: 0.94 [6] Strategic Insights - The company is expected to maintain stable operations in its core business despite recent personnel changes, with the appointment of Zhang Daoming as the interim head, who has 27 years of management experience in the insurance industry [12] - The report highlights a clear strategic plan that is expected to enhance both premium income and profitability in the long term, particularly through the optimization of the auto insurance cost structure and the governance of non-auto insurance [12] - The company is actively responding to national policies to develop overseas business models, focusing on serving "Chinese enterprises" and "Chinese products," with significant progress in underwriting key projects along the Belt and Road Initiative [12]

宏 观 研 究 美联储如期降息，开启技术性扩表 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——2025 年 12 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 2025 年 12 月美联储降息 25BP，基本符合预期，但是内部分歧加大，表态上后续降 息更为谨慎，同时开启准备金管理购买的技术性扩表。在劳动力市场结构性变化和 美联储主席换届的背景下，我们预计 2026 年可能还有 2-3 次降息，美债利率先下后 上，美股仍有进一步支撑。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.11 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 通胀能否回升 2025.12.01 外需修复，推升供给 2025.11.30 同比转负，有待需求提振 2025.11.27 弱就业、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1][5]. Core Insights - The medical device procurement scale continues to grow, driven by ongoing equipment update policies, which are expected to lead to a long-term increase in procurement levels. The report recommends medical device companies that are likely to benefit from these policies, including Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Kaili Medical, and Aohua Endoscopy [3][5]. - In November 2025, the new equipment procurement scale showed significant year-on-year growth: MRI increased by 11.1%, CT by 26.4%, DR by 47.2%, ultrasound by 17.0%, while endoscopes declined by 4.9%, and surgical robots grew by 8.6%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, MRI grew by 50.4%, CT by 72.7%, DR by 74.0%, ultrasound by 56.1%, endoscopes by 19.7%, and surgical robots by 32.8% [5]. - The equipment update policy is expected to drive procurement levels significantly, with a target of over 25% growth in medical equipment investment by 2027 compared to 2023. This policy is expected to enhance the configuration of high-end equipment to levels comparable to middle-income countries [5]. - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in procurement demand from medical institutions, reflecting a positive trend in the medical equipment industry. For instance, United Imaging reported a revenue of 6.866 billion yuan in the domestic market for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.7% [5]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating and recommends companies likely to benefit from the equipment update policies [5]. - **Market Trends**: The report highlights the growth in procurement scale for various medical devices, indicating a robust market environment [5]. - **Policy Impact**: The ongoing implementation of equipment update policies is expected to significantly enhance procurement levels in the medical sector [5].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.10 11 月乘用车市场优惠力度持续减弱 [Table_Industry] 汽车 ——汽车行业跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张觉尹(分析师) | 021-23185705 | zhangjueyin@gtht.com | S0880525040057 | | 潘若婵(分析师) | 021-23154145 | panruochan@gtht.com | S0880525110006 | 本报告导读： 11 月市场优惠力度持续减弱，行业内部结构性分化加剧。我们维持行业"增持"评 级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《优必选与卓世科技达成战略合作，众擎发 布 T800》2025.12.08 汽车《线控转向相关国标发布，产业迎来重要助 推》2025.12.07 汽车《零跑 Lafa 5 上市，海 ...

Market Overview - Overall asset performance shows commodities outperforming equities, with the Korean stock market leading gains[4] - MSCI global index increased by 0.6%, but growth momentum has significantly slowed compared to previous weeks[5] - The yield curve for Chinese bonds is steepening, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, while U.S. bonds are experiencing a "bull steepening" trend[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - 10 out of 13 major commodities recorded price increases, with COMEX silver rising by 101.9% year-to-date[7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, with the euro and pound appreciating by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively; the dollar has depreciated by 8.8% since the beginning of the year[7] Consumer and Industrial Insights - Service consumption has improved year-on-year, with Shanghai Disneyland's visitor index up by 75% compared to last year[10] - Real estate transactions in major cities have seen significant declines, with new home sales down by 32.5% year-on-year[30] Financial Sector Developments - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36 trillion yuan, with equity funds increasing by 1.55%[24] - The performance evaluation of the investment banking sector is shifting towards enhancing investor experience[23] Company-Specific Highlights - Traffic Bank's net profit growth is projected at 2.3% for 2025, with a target price adjustment to 8.58 yuan based on a 0.72x PB valuation[34] - Didi's EBITA is expected to be 46.0 billion yuan in 2025, with a target market value of 234.7 billion yuan[39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stabilization fund plays a crucial role in guiding long - term funds such as social security and insurance into the market and is an important support for the stability of the capital market. China can improve its stabilization fund from four aspects by referring to overseas experiences [1]. - China's quasi - stabilization fund has a system centered around Huijin, but there are still deficiencies in exit mechanisms, market boundaries, and linkage with fundamental repair. It is recommended to optimize its operation mode from four levels: mechanism design, scale control, policy coordination, and supervision and evaluation [4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Overview and Operation Mode of China's Quasi - "Stabilization Fund" - **Overview of Quasi - "Stabilization Fund"**: A stabilization fund is an official rescue fund used to stabilize the market and stop the decline when the financial market faces a major crisis or extreme abnormal fluctuations. China's "national team" that plays the role of a quasi - stabilization fund includes entities such as Central Huijin, China Securities Finance, and the National Council for Social Security Fund. Central Huijin has a clear positioning as a quasi - stabilization fund, with a stable source of funds, and has a significant impact on the market. As of the end of September 2025, Central Huijin's holding market value exceeded 3 trillion yuan, accounting for 72% of the total market value of the "national team" holdings [4][7][9]. - **Stable Source of Funds for Central Huijin**: Central Huijin has a strong asset base, sufficient and stable cash flow, and smooth and efficient financing channels. The People's Bank of China will provide re - loans to Central Huijin when necessary [31][32]. - **Investment Portfolio of Huijin System**: The Huijin System mainly holds value stocks represented by the financial sector and broad - based ETFs. Central Huijin Asset Management has the largest number of securities holdings and market value. The ETFs held by the Huijin System are mainly broad - based, with a high proportion of holdings, and the total ETF market value accounts for 24.4% of the entire ETF market [33][34]. - **Shift to ETFs after 2023**: Before 2023, Central Huijin mainly operated stocks. After 2023, it shifted to ETF operations to stabilize the market, and the scale of ETF holdings increased explosively [40][42]. - **Effect of Huijin's Operations**: Central Huijin can play a short - term bottom - supporting role in the capital market, but the medium - and long - term effects still depend on the economic fundamentals and policy coordination [53]. 2. Overseas "Stabilization Fund" Operation Practices - **Japan**: Japan's (quasi -) stabilization funds can play a short - term counter - cyclical adjustment function, but the long - term boosting effect is not ideal. The large - scale purchase of ETFs by the Bank of Japan may lead to problems such as limited policy flexibility, loss of neutrality, and reduced market efficiency [59][60][61]. - **United States**: The US foreign exchange stabilization fund (ESF) and the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) have achieved significant results. ESF has changed its purpose after 2008 to stabilize the financial market. TARP effectively stabilized the financial system and the economy during the 2008 financial crisis and has a clear exit strategy [67][68][70]. - **South Korea**: South Korea's stock market stabilization funds are temporary operations with poor effects. They cannot fundamentally improve the economic situation and are only likely to cause short - term price bubbles [77][81]. 3. Suggestions for Improving China's "Stabilization Fund" Operation Mode - **Summary of Overseas Experiences**: Successful experiences include targeted intervention, clear exit mechanisms, and effective short - term counter - cyclical adjustment. Failure experiences include long - term large - scale market intervention reducing market efficiency and poor long - term rescue effects driven by economic fundamentals [83][86][87]. - **Current Deficiencies in China's Stabilization Fund**: There are deficiencies in the systematic and flexible exit mechanism, unclear long - term market boundaries, and insufficient linkage with fundamental repair [88]. - **Suggestions for Improvement**: It is recommended to optimize China's quasi - stabilization fund operation mode from four levels: mechanism design, scale control, policy coordination, and supervision and evaluation. This includes clarifying position boundaries, constructing a trigger - based exit mechanism, strengthening coordination with macro - economic policies, and establishing a regular evaluation and information disclosure mechanism [89].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year remains high at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[7] - In November, the overall CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, supported by food prices and consumption subsidies[7] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 7.2% due to weather factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[18] - The decline in PPI is influenced by falling international oil prices, while upstream prices for coal and non-ferrous metals have risen[18] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to impact industrial prices, with coal mining prices increasing by 4.1% month-on-month[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recovery of service CPI is expected to be a key variable for price stabilization in 2026, shifting focus from physical consumption[17] - The ongoing emphasis on service consumption in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and central economic work conference highlights the need for policy support[17] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and potential inadequacies in policy measures[24]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the macro factor-based asset allocation strategy achieved a return of 4.25% in 2025, with a monthly return of 0.02% in November [1][46] - The performance of various domestic asset allocation strategies includes: - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 1: 4.04% YTD, 0.09% in November - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 2: 3.82% YTD, 0.13% in November - Domestic Asset Risk Parity Strategy: 3.68% YTD, -0.01% in November - Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Strategy: 4.25% YTD, 0.02% in November [1][19] Group 2 - In November 2025, the performance of major asset classes showed that gold and commodities increased, while equity assets experienced slight declines. Specifically, SHFE gold rose by 3.15%, the Nanhua Commodity Index by 0.53%, and the total wealth index of corporate bonds by 0.11%. Conversely, the CSI 300, CSI 1000, convertible bonds, Hang Seng Index, and the total wealth index of government bonds fell by 2.46%, 2.3%, 0.69%, 0.44%, and 0.34% respectively [8][9] - The correlation between major asset classes indicates that the CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds had a correlation of -35.63%, while the total wealth index of government bonds and the Nanhua Commodity Index had a correlation of 41.79% [12][14] Group 3 - The macroeconomic outlook as of the end of November 2025 suggests a weak recovery in the economy, with the manufacturing PMI slightly rising to 49.2%, but still below the expansion threshold. The service PMI fell to 49.5%, indicating weakened domestic demand recovery [43] - Inflation data shows that the CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, primarily driven by seasonal increases in food prices, while the core CPI only slightly increased to 1.2%, indicating weak terminal demand [43][45]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.10 电子布：紧缺预期下的"抢单季"躁动 其他非金属矿物制品 [Table_Industry] ——玻璃纤维行业更新 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | baoyanxin@gtht.com | S0880513070005 | | 花健祎(分析师) | 0755-23976858 | huajianyi@gtht.com | S0880521010001 | | 杨冬庭(分析师) | 0755-23976166 | yangdongting@gtht.com | S0880522080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 其他非金属矿物制品《石英资源应用高端化，新 材料国产化加速》2024.01.17 本报告导读： 覆铜板龙头集体布局 26 年高端份额的争取，带动近期特种电子布采购框架上修。同 时，传统电子布在织布机转产影响下继续提价的确定性较高。 投资要点： 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 跟 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the paper industry Core Insights - In November, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while white cardboard continued to see price hikes, cultural paper prices stabilized, and black paper prices continued to rise. Profitability is slightly under pressure, with expectations for continued price increases in December for pulp and gradual transmission of price increases for white paper, while black paper prices are expected to maintain their upward trend [2] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Price: Strong willingness from paper mills to raise prices, stabilizing terminal prices. As of November 26, the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper was 4731 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 3 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 7.78% [8][22] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap narrowed in November due to the initiation of new publishing tenders and improved order conditions for paper mills, with expectations for higher demand than supply in December [11][12] - Profitability: Rising costs and falling prices led to a decrease in profitability, with the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper at -7.78% as of November 26 [22] White Cardboard - Price: Continued price increases driven by price notifications from paper mills. As of November 26, the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard was 4194 CNY/ton, up 3.30% from October [25] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap is expected to widen due to increased production and slightly declining demand, impacting the potential for price increases [28][30] - Profitability: The gross margin for white cardboard improved due to price increases outpacing cost increases, with a margin increase of 2.72 percentage points compared to October [39] Boxboard - Price: Continuous price increases with an average market price of 3843 CNY/ton as of November 26, reflecting a 3.86% increase from October [40] - Supply and Demand: Industry demand is expected to decrease, leading to increased supply pressure. The supply-demand gap narrowed in November due to reduced supply from paper mills [43][46] - Profitability: Profitability remains under pressure as price increases do not fully offset rising costs [40] Waste Paper - Price: Continued price increases due to tight supply conditions, with overall supply decreasing [4][48] - Supply and Demand: Supply remains tight, with improved willingness to sell from packing stations [4][48] Wood Pulp - Price: Continued price increases for imported hardwood pulp, with domestic prices showing signs of slowing growth [6][15] - Supply and Demand: Demand is expected to remain stable in December, with an anticipated increase in domestic production [6][17]