计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 DeepSeek 持续火爆，中立云厂商及国产算 力有望受益 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为，DeepSeek 的卓越的性能和超高性价比有望催化 AI 应用的百花齐放，在这个 过程中，推理算力需求有望持续上涨，而布局推理云的公司以及国产 AI 芯片厂商有望持 续受益。 ⚫ 推理云：建议关注优刻得、首都在线、深桑达、润建股份、青云科技、铜牛信息、 中科曙光、品高股份等 ⚫ 国产算力链：建议关注海光信息、华丰科技、寒武纪、云天励飞、浪潮信息、紫光 股份、拓维信息、四川长虹、神州数码、景嘉微、中国长城、安博通、恒为科技等 计算机行业动态跟踪 —— DeepSeek持续火爆，中立云厂商及国产算力有望受益 目 录 | 一、 DeepSeek 日活全球第二，推理算力需求有望持续上涨 4 | | --- | | 二、 多家云厂适配 DeepSeek，第三方云厂有望受益 5 | | 三、DeepSeek 将给国产算力带来新发展机遇 7 | | 3.1 国产 AI 芯片纷纷适配 DeepSeek 7 | | 3.2 国产算力有望受益于推理算力需求增长 8 | | 投资建议 10 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, with a target price of 16.59 CNY, based on a valuation of 468 billion CNY [3][4]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer is expected to see a steady improvement in profitability, driven by the strong growth of its U8 product line and structural upgrades in its product matrix, leading to a slight increase in market share [2][13]. - The overall beer market in China is projected to experience a controlled decline, with Yanjing Beer expected to maintain a stable market share due to its strong brand positioning and product offerings [7][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for Yanjing Beer is forecasted to be 0.37, 0.53, and 0.64 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [3]. - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are adjusted to 14,957 million CNY, 15,884 million CNY, and 16,657 million CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 4.9% [3]. Market Position and Product Development - Yanjing Beer has successfully developed the U8 product as a national mid-to-high-end growth item, contributing to a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5% in total sales from 2023 to 2027 [21]. - The U8 product is expected to account for approximately 32% of total sales by 2028, driven by its competitive pricing and strong market acceptance [34][35]. Competitive Landscape and Industry Trends - The report highlights that Yanjing Beer has increased its market share from 10.1% in 2021 to 10.8% in 2023, outperforming competitors like Chongqing Beer and Zhujiang Beer during the same period [13][20]. - The overall beer market in China is anticipated to decline at a compound rate of -1.7% from 2023 to 2035, with Yanjing Beer expected to navigate this decline effectively due to its strategic positioning and product offerings [16][19]. Profitability Improvement Measures - Key reforms initiated by Yanjing Beer include focusing on the U8 product, optimizing production lines, and reducing costs, which are expected to enhance the company's profitability compared to its peers [38][39]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve significantly, benefiting from the increased share of U8 and cost reductions in raw materials [7][38].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 3.08 based on a 2026 P/E ratio of 7.5x [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from an improvement in cash flow and a reversal in the raw milk cycle, positioning it as a direct beneficiary in the industry [1][6]. - The company has a strong market position as the largest raw milk supplier in China, with significant collaboration with its core customer, Yili [6][13]. - The report anticipates a potential acceleration in the clearing of dairy farms, leading to a balance in raw milk supply and demand [6][54]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Earnings per share are projected to be -0.05, 0.17, and 0.38 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 20.12 billion in 2024 to CNY 22.02 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.4% [3]. - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve, with raw milk business gross margin reaching 32% in 2024H1 [25]. Company Overview - The company has expanded its scale through mergers and acquisitions, increasing its number of farms from 38 in 2018 to 96 by 2024H1, with raw milk production rising from 590,000 tons to 3.02 million tons during the same period [17][19]. - Yili has been a major customer, with over 90% of raw milk sales directed to Yili since 2018, ensuring a high sales rate close to 100% [21][6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the decline in raw milk prices has led to increased pressure on dairy farms, with expectations of a reduction in dairy cow inventory by 300,000 to 400,000 heads in 2024 [54][56]. - The average price of fresh milk has decreased from CNY 4.4/kg in August 2021 to CNY 3.1/kg currently, indicating a significant market shift [37][49]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company’s profitability is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 28.3% in 2024H1, benefiting from lower feed costs [25][31]. - The financial burden from biological asset impairments has impacted profits, with a net loss of CNY 470 million in 2024H1 [31][54]. Supply and Demand Balance - The report estimates that achieving a balance in raw milk supply and demand will require a reduction in dairy cow inventory to approximately 5.99 million heads by 2025 [56][58]. - The analysis indicates that if fresh milk demand increases by 3% in 2025, supply-demand balance could be reached by Q3 2025 [56][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the new energy vehicle industry [5] Core Insights - The terminal sales performance is strong, with a projected increase in demand. In 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 12.865 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%, while the installed capacity of power batteries is projected to be 548.4 GWh, up 41% year-on-year. The demand for lithium batteries is anticipated to maintain strong growth momentum through 2025 [11][12] - The overall profitability trend is stabilizing and slightly improving. Both upstream lithium resources and downstream batteries have shown significant recovery. However, the midstream materials, including ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes, are still affected by the impairment of lithium carbonate [11][12] - The upward trend in profitability remains unchanged, with many companies in the industry expected to have a PE valuation below 20 times for 2025, indicating investment value [12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Terminal sales performance is strong, with a year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales and power battery installation [11] - The profitability trend is stabilizing, with upstream and downstream sectors recovering, while midstream materials face challenges [11][12] Industry News - Tesla's Shanghai energy storage factory is set to commence production, with a planned annual output of 10,000 Megapack units, contributing to global supply [14] - SK On has completed a merger to enhance its raw material procurement capabilities and financial stability [15] Important Announcements - EVE Energy (300014.SZ) has signed a strategic procurement agreement for energy storage cells, indicating recognition of its product performance and supply capabilities [21][22] Price Tracking of Battery-Related Products - Lithium carbonate price is at 77,000 CNY/ton, down 0.77% from the previous week, and down 20.23% since the beginning of 2025 [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.08 CNY based on a projected EPS of 0.51 CNY for 2024 and 0.63 CNY for 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is advancing its globalization strategy in the industrial crane sector, with nearly 40% of new orders in the first half of 2024 coming from overseas, marking a record high for overseas order proportion [8]. - The company is focusing on deepening its presence in the downstream industry chain, particularly in the shipbuilding sector, to leverage the growing demand for material handling solutions [8]. - Despite a slight decline in revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, the company is expected to recover with a projected revenue increase of 23.7% in 2025 and 27.9% in 2026 [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 1,870 million CNY, with a growth of 17.7%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,088 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 4.8% [3][11]. - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve to 27.8% by 2024, up from 24.0% in 2023 [3][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 182 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the real estate industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is expected to reach a bottom by 2026 due to the accumulation of various positive factors driving overall economic improvement. The current economic recession is attributed to the downturn in the real estate sector, but the recovery of the overall economy will not solely depend on real estate [2][3] - Key factors influencing the economic situation include the transmission of real estate debt issues, fiscal and monetary policies, increased consumer spending, stock market performance, and exchange rates. The report emphasizes the potential for further easing of monetary policy, with the central economic work conference in December 2024 signaling a return to "moderately loose monetary policy" [3][41] - The report highlights two effective methods observed for stabilizing first-hand housing sales: "adjusting regulations" and "land exchange." Adjustments in building regulations and land planning have led to a surge in sales in cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, indicating that there are still ways to shift sales from second-hand to first-hand properties [3][41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the sixth week of 2025, the real estate sector index outperformed the CSI 300 index with a relative return of 0.6%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3892.70 with a weekly increase of 2.0%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2265.87 with a weekly increase of 2.6% [11][14] Sales Data - New home sales in 44 major cities increased by 7.8% compared to the previous week, totaling 0.52 million units. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities surged by 103.0%, reaching 0.67 million units [15][22] Policy Developments - National policies include ongoing support from the China Development Bank for affordable housing construction and supply. Local policies have seen changes such as new regulations in Ningbo regarding balcony calculations and adjustments in property tax policies in Chongqing [13][19] Land Market Activity - The land market activity decreased in the sixth week, with a total land transaction value of 4.88 billion yuan, down by 90.63 billion yuan from the previous week. The average premium rate for land transactions in 36 major cities was 0.0%, indicating a significant drop [26][34] Company Announcements - Several companies, including Vanke A and Rongsheng Development, have made significant announcements regarding asset purchases, share repurchases, and other corporate actions, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the sector [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is expected to reach a bottom by 2026 due to the accumulation of various positive factors driving overall economic improvement. The current economic recession is attributed to the downturn in the real estate sector, but recovery will not solely depend on this industry. Multiple factors, including real estate debt issues, fiscal and monetary policies, and government efforts to boost consumption, will influence the overall economic situation [3][41] - The report highlights the potential for further monetary policy easing, with the central economic work conference in December 2024 signaling a return to "moderately loose monetary policy," reminiscent of the measures taken during the 2008-2010 financial crisis. The LPR has seen cumulative declines of 105 basis points over three years, with significant reductions in interest expenses for existing mortgage holders [3][41] - Two effective methods observed to stabilize first-hand housing sales are "adjusting regulations" and "land exchange." Adjustments in building regulations and land planning have led to high sales in new properties, while land exchange can accelerate inventory reduction and improve liquidity for local governments and real estate companies [3][41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the sixth week of 2025, the real estate sector index outperformed the CSI 300 index with a relative return of 0.6%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3892.70 with a weekly increase of 2.0%, while the real estate index closed at 2265.87 with a weekly increase of 2.6% [11][14] Sales Data - New home sales in 44 major cities increased by 7.8% compared to the previous week, totaling 0.52 million units. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities surged by 103.0%, reaching 0.67 million units [15][22] Policy Developments - National policies include ongoing support from the China Development Bank for affordable housing construction. Local policies have seen changes such as new regulations in Ningbo regarding balcony measurements and adjustments in property tax policies in Chongqing [13][20] Company Announcements - Several companies have made significant announcements, including Vanke A regarding guarantee progress and Rongsheng Development about asset acquisition and fundraising [39][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.48 CNY based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to the impact of centralized procurement on certain insulin products, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [2][6]. - The company is actively advancing its R&D projects, particularly in the GLP-1 and gout treatment areas, with several clinical trials progressing well [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 2,778 million CNY, with a projected decline to 2,177 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,903 million CNY in 2025 and 3,489 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a -15.0% growth in 2022 and a -29.2% decline in 2024 [3][10]. - Operating profit is expected to drop significantly from 1,829 million CNY in 2022 to just 50 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 1,001 million CNY in 2025 and 1,320 million CNY in 2026 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 1,582 million CNY in 2022 to 41 million CNY in 2024, with a recovery to 854 million CNY in 2025 and 1,128 million CNY in 2026 [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to fall from 0.81 CNY in 2022 to 0.02 CNY in 2024, then rise to 0.44 CNY in 2025 and 0.58 CNY in 2026 [3][10]. R&D and Market Expansion - The company is seeing robust growth in its insulin products, particularly in the second half of 2024, with a projected sales increase of over 300% for its Aspart insulin series due to new hospital admissions [6][7]. - The overseas business is expected to achieve over 100 million CNY in revenue in 2024, nearly doubling year-on-year [6][7]. - Ongoing clinical trials for innovative drugs, including GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonists and gout treatments, are progressing well, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry [4] Core Insights - The introduction of AI large models is expected to significantly enhance user experience in smart TVs, marking a new era for the industry [6][12] - Global TV shipments are recovering, with a projected increase in AI TV penetration, potentially reaching 60-80 million units if penetration rates hit 30-40% by 2025 [6][49] - The demand recovery, coupled with rising hardware performance requirements, suggests that the entire TV industry chain will benefit from the AI trend [6][53] Summary by Sections AI Large Models Enhancing TV Experience - Major tech companies like Google and Microsoft are collaborating with TV manufacturers to integrate AI large models into their products, enhancing interactivity and user engagement [12][16] - AI large models are expected to improve personalized interactions, making TVs a central hub for smart home control [30][35] Global TV Shipment Recovery - The global TV shipment volume showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% in Q3 2024, marking the largest quarterly growth in nearly three years [49][52] - The Chinese TV retail market is rebounding due to government subsidies, contributing to global shipment growth [52] Industry Chain Benefits from AI Trends - The AI TV trend is anticipated to elevate the demand for SoC chips, benefiting companies like Amlogic, which has deep collaborations with major TV ecosystems [56] - The performance requirements for TCON and picture quality chips are expected to rise, with companies like Hisense and TCL leading in high-end Mini-LED TVs [59] - The main control board manufacturers, such as Vision, are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-performance display devices [62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.19%, underperforming the market by 4.64 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector rose by 4.17%, also underperforming the market by 1.66 percentage points [2][13] - Recent price increases in wood pulp, with a notable rise of $20 per ton for Chilean hardwood pulp, indicate a potential recovery in prices for cultural paper and white cardboard [4][18] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.19%, while the paper sub-sector increased by 4.17%, ranking 22nd among 28 first-level industries [2][13] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by growth, are paper, furniture, packaging and printing, and entertainment products, with paper and furniture sectors showing increases of 4.17% and 2.29% respectively [2][13] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The report highlights a decrease in domestic waste paper prices by 13 CNY/ton, while U.S. waste paper prices increased by $5/ton [22] - Chilean hardwood and softwood pulp prices both rose by $20/ton, with domestic hardwood pulp prices increasing by 162 CNY/ton and softwood pulp by 122 CNY/ton [23][30] - The total inventory of wood pulp at two major Chinese ports reached 1.62 million tons, reflecting a 7.1% increase [24][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and specialty paper leaders like Xianhe Co. (603733, Buy) [4] - It also suggests investing in high-end decorative paper leader Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) and food packaging paper leader Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Accumulate) [4] - For waste paper products, it recommends Jiu Long Paper (02689, Buy) and Shanying International (600567, Accumulate) due to expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics [4]