国内外双轮驱动，创新管线有序推进 ——甘李药业 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们维持盈利预期，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 1.91、2.40、2.84 元， 参考可比公司平均市盈率，我们给予公司 2025 年 31 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 59.21 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 出海进度不达预期风险；新品上市不达预期风险；行业政策变动风险；新兴疗法冲 击风险；地缘政治变化风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,608 | 3,045 | 4,202 | 5,181 | 6,115 | | 同比增长 (%) | 52.3% | 16.8% | 38.0% | 23.3% | 18.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 315 | 632 | 1,362 | 1,708 | 2,020 | | 同比增长 (%) | 155.4% | 100.3% | 1 ...

国内外双轮驱动，创新管线有序推进 ——甘李药业 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们维持盈利预期，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 1.91、2.40、2.84 元， 参考可比公司平均市盈率，我们给予公司 2025 年 31 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 59.21 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 出海进度不达预期风险；新品上市不达预期风险；行业政策变动风险；新兴疗法冲 击风险；地缘政治变化风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,608 | 3,045 | 4,202 | 5,181 | 6,115 | | 同比增长 (%) | 52.3% | 16.8% | 38.0% | 23.3% | 18.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 315 | 632 | 1,362 | 1,708 | 2,020 | | 同比增长 (%) | 155.4% | 100.3% | 1 ...

星源材质 300568.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 隔膜产销同比高增，全球布局开花结果 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于隔膜价格下跌，我们下调公司 2025-2026 年每股收益预测值至 0.34、0.54 元 （原预测值为 0.83、0.99 元），并新增 2027 年预测值 0.80 元。结合可比公司估值 水平，给予公司 2025 年 34 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 11.56 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 锂电池需求不及预期；动力电池技术路线变革；行业竞争加剧导致产品价格下降； 假设条件变化影响测算结果；公司海外项目推进不及预期等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,013 | 3,541 | 4,636 | 5,929 | 7,720 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4.6% | 17.5% | 30.9% | 27.9% | 30.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 824 | 407 | ...

主业稳健，AI 赋能+出海增量可期 ——值得买 24 年年报及 25 年一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据最新财报，我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润 1.3/1.5/1.8 亿元（原预测 25-26 年 归母净利润 1.4/1.7 亿元，根据最新财报下调收入预测和毛利率，AIGC 业务赋能下 调费用率），参考可比公司给予 25 年 60xPE（调整后均值），对应目标价 38.40 元/ 股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧，流量增长放缓，AIGC 进展不及预期对公司估值有所影响。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,452 | 1,518 | 1,704 | 1,925 | 2,322 | | 同比增长 (%) | 18.2% | 4.5% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 20.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 83 | 83 | 159 | 183 | 228 | | 同比增长 (%) | - ...

星源材质 300568.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 隔膜产销同比高增，全球布局开花结果 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于隔膜价格下跌，我们下调公司 2025-2026 年每股收益预测值至 0.34、0.54 元 （原预测值为 0.83、0.99 元），并新增 2027 年预测值 0.80 元。结合可比公司估值 水平，给予公司 2025 年 34 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 11.56 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 锂电池需求不及预期；动力电池技术路线变革；行业竞争加剧导致产品价格下降； 假设条件变化影响测算结果；公司海外项目推进不及预期等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,013 | 3,541 | 4,636 | 5,929 | 7,720 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4.6% | 17.5% | 30.9% | 27.9% | 30.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 824 | 407 | ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 14 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 政治局会议部署加快落地，一揽子金融政 | 2025-05-07 | | --- | --- | | 策稳定预期 | | | 区域的视角系列（5）：如何看待北京消费 | 2025-05-07 | | 数据？ | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.5 CNY based on a 17x PE valuation for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in its Q1 performance, with a revenue of 20,957 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a 2.7% year-on-year decline, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 26.9% to 2,159 million CNY [8]. - The company is focusing on new business growth points, particularly in the sports sector, and has made strategic investments to enhance its market presence [8]. - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate an expected EPS of 0.50, 0.56, and 0.63 CNY respectively, with revenue growth projected at 7.3%, 9.0%, and 8.8% [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 21,528 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 16.0%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20,957 million CNY, 22,496 million CNY, 24,511 million CNY, and 26,671 million CNY respectively [2][12]. - The operating profit for 2023 was 3,611 million CNY, with a growth of 28.7%. The expected operating profits for the next few years are 2,780 million CNY, 3,039 million CNY, 3,360 million CNY, and 3,790 million CNY [2][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,952 million CNY, with a growth of 37.0%. The forecasts for the following years are 2,159 million CNY, 2,417 million CNY, 2,667 million CNY, and 3,003 million CNY [2][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its online and offline channels, with online revenue growth of 35.6% in 2024, while offline channels grew by 10% [8]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its presence in the overseas market, achieving a revenue of 355 million CNY from international operations, which is a 30.75% increase year-on-year [8]. - The strategic acquisition of stakes in sports brands and the expansion of the JD Outlet stores are part of the company's efforts to diversify and strengthen its market position [8].

中美谈判延长风险缓释期 ——海外札记 20250512 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。 政策不确定性。 宏观经济 | 专题报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 13 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | "特朗普看跌期权"和它的行权价：—— | 2025-03-27 | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.5 CNY for 2025, based on a 17x PE valuation [2][3][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a resilient performance in Q1, with revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth of 0.2% and 5.5% respectively, despite a challenging environment in 2024 [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding into new business areas, particularly in the sports sector, and is deepening its presence in urban outlet markets [7]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 0.5, 0.56, and 0.63 CNY respectively [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company achieved a revenue of 21,528 million CNY in 2023, with a projected decline to 20,957 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 22,496 million CNY in 2025, representing a 7.3% growth [2][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 2,952 million CNY in 2023 to 2,159 million CNY in 2024, before increasing to 2,417 million CNY in 2025 [2][11]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 44.5% in 2023 to 45.3% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 13.7% in 2023 to 11.3% in 2027 [2][11]. Brand and Channel Performance - **Brand Performance**: The "Hailan Home" series is expected to see a revenue decline of 7.2% in 2024, with a net reduction of 143 stores [7]. - **Channel Performance**: Online revenue is projected to grow by 35.6% in 2024, while offline revenue is expected to decline by 10% [7]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 38,470 million CNY, with a current share price of 8.01 CNY [3]. - The company is positioned within the textile and apparel industry, with a focus on expanding its market share through strategic investments and new business initiatives [3][7].

风险提示 ⚫ 可穿戴设备需求不及预期，客户验证进展不及预期，公司研发效果不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 25Q1 业绩持续高增，强化智能可穿戴芯片 战略布局 核心观点 公司发布 24 年年报和 25 年一季报。2024 年公司营业收入同比增长 50%到 326 亿 元，归母净利润同比增长 272%到 4.6 亿元。25Q1 公司实现营收 99 亿元，同比增 长 523%，归母净利润 191 亿元，同比增长 590%。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 20252027 年每股收益分别为 6.97、10.40、15.23 元，（原 2526 年 预测为 3.38、4.83 元，主要调整了营业收入和费用率），根据可比公司 26 年平均 43 倍 PE 估值水平，对应目标价 44720 元，维持买入评级。 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入百万元 | 2,176 | 3,263 | 4,712 | 6,044 | 7,755 | | 同比增长 (%) | 47% | 50% ...