兆易创新 603986.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 2.47、3.96、5.00 元（原 25-26 年预测为 2.38、3.04 元），主要调整了营业收入与费用率。根据可比公司 26 年平均 65 倍 PE 估值，给予 257.40 元目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 需求复苏不及预期、价格上涨不及预期、新产品进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,761 | 7,356 | 9,452 | 12,461 | 15,871 | | 同比增长 (%) | -29.1% | 27.7% | 28.5% | 31.8% | 27.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 120 | 1,117 | 1,678 | 2,751 | 3,585 | | 同比增长 (%) | -94.6% | 832.8% | 50.2% | 63.9% | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The continuation of national subsidies is expected to stimulate consumption potential on both supply and demand sides, with stable white goods production planned for Q1 2026 [2][3] - The "Two New" policy is optimized and extended, which is anticipated to activate greater consumption potential in the home appliance sector [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Sales Outlook - The effect of national subsidies is expected to improve domestic sales conditions in Q1 2026 after the arrival of subsidy funds, despite a marginal slowdown in the subsidy effect [3][6] - January 2026 white goods production data shows a total of 34.53 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year, with variations in production across different product categories [6] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading companies with higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, which are seen as stable choices for investment [3] - Key stocks to consider include Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, not rated), and Hisense Visual (600060, increase holding) [3] - The long-term focus on overseas expansion is highlighted, with expectations for a valuation switch in 2026, particularly for Stone Technology (688169, not rated) [3] - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for a second growth curve, such as Anfu Technology (603031, not rated), are also recommended [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has officially released guidelines for commercial rocket companies to apply for the fifth set of listing standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which supports high-quality commercial rocket enterprises that have not yet formed a certain revenue scale to go public [2][7] - The commercial rocket industry is expected to experience rapid growth due to continuous policy support, accelerated technological iteration, and the release of rocket production capacity, leading to a significant increase in the number of rockets and launch frequency in China [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The guidelines emphasize that companies must have key core technologies and significant technological advantages or breakthroughs, focusing on the self-research capabilities of core components and key indicators such as payload capacity and multi-satellite launch capabilities [7] - The guidelines also require that commercial rocket companies achieve a milestone of successfully launching a medium to large reusable rocket payload into orbit [7] Market Dynamics - The commercial rocket sector is currently a bottleneck in the commercial aerospace industry, and with the release of production capacity, improvement in launch capabilities, and breakthroughs in reusable technology, the progress of satellite networking is expected to experience a leap forward [7] - The report identifies that the future of China's rocket sector will see a threefold resonance of capacity release, enhanced launch capabilities, and breakthroughs in reusable technology, which will accelerate the resolution of launch bottlenecks [7] Investment Targets - Recommended investment targets in the satellite sector include Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy), Zhenlei Technology (688270, Not Rated), and others [7] - Recommended investment targets in the rocket sector include Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated), Zhonghang Heavy Industry (600765, Buy), and others [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [6] Core Insights - The demand for Google's TPU is expected to grow significantly, leading to a rapid increase in the liquid cooling market for Google servers. The shift in Google's supplier model will provide greater opportunities for domestic suppliers, making liquid cooling a second growth curve for them [3][59] Summary by Sections 1. Google's TPU v7 Servers to Fully Transition to Liquid Cooling - Google has initiated its self-developed ASIC project in 2014, officially launching the TPU in 2016, which has significantly optimized energy consumption and cost-effectiveness in neural network inference. The latest TPU v7, named Ironwood, has shown substantial performance improvements [12][19] 2. Rapid Growth of Google's Liquid Cooling Market - The market size for Google's liquid cooling servers is projected to reach approximately 18 billion RMB (around 2.57 billion USD) in 2026, a significant increase from 2025. This growth is driven by the expected shipment of 2.8 million TPU v7 chips in 2026 [26][29] 3. Breakthrough in Google's Liquid Cooling Supplier Model - Google's supplier model differs from NVIDIA's, as Google aims to ensure the safety, stability, and reliability of its data centers by directly engaging with liquid cooling system and component suppliers. This model is expected to provide more opportunities for domestic suppliers [34][38] 4. Major Investment Strategies: Domestic Liquid Cooling Suppliers to See Significant Opportunities - With the anticipated growth in TPU demand and the transition to liquid cooling, domestic suppliers are expected to benefit from increased market space. Key investment targets include companies like Invec, Silver Wheel, and Flying Dragon [3][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore prices continued their weak and volatile trend this week. Affected by the seasonal decline in hot metal production and cautious steel mill procurement, the demand side weakened marginally. The supply side maintained stable shipments, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Coupled with the high valuation, the upward momentum of prices was suppressed. Although there was some order resilience in the finished product market, the clear characteristics of the terminal seasonal off - season made it difficult to provide effective support. In the short term, the pattern of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The market focus shifted to the extent of hot metal production cuts in January and policy expectations. It was expected that prices would continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to cost support and restocking rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28 million tons (-3.56%); Australian shipments were 19.506 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons (-4.97%); Brazilian shipments were 8.641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.488 million tons (-5.35%); the combined shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.147 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.508 million tons (-5.09%) [3][38]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data of four major mines through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [46][47]. - **Ocean Freight**: The ocean freight from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45 per ton (-13.99%); the ocean freight from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68 per ton (-2.80%) [53]. - **Domestic Port Arrival Volume**: This week, the iron ore arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 26.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.767 million tons (-2.82%) [55]. - **Domestic Mine Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% (-1.61%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37,100 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons per day (-1.62%) [57]. 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.94%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01% (+0.01%); the daily average hot metal output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons (+0.01%); the profit ratio was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% (+3.62%) [63]. - **Sintered Powder Consumption**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons (-0.38%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 610,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,500 tons (+9.01%) [65]. - **Global Steel Production**: The report presents data on global blast furnace pig iron production, Chinese blast furnace pig iron production, and global crude steel production through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [71][75][76]. - **Port Dispatching Situation**: The report presents data on the seasonal dispatching volume of 45 ports and the daily average dispatching volume of Qingdao Port through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [83][84]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons (+2.23%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons (+2.43%) [87]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons (+1.56%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 12.0626 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,700 tons (+2.18%) [95]. 3.4 Futures Market - **Main Contract Situation and Basis**: The settlement price of the main contract was 776.50 yuan per ton, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.50 yuan per ton (-0.06%); the basis was 30.02 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 4.29 yuan per ton (-12.50%); the Platts iron ore price index was 107.90 US dollars per dry ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.20 US dollars per dry ton (+0.19%); the screw - to - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.003 [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread on the Futures Market**: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.50 yuan per ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.50 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan per ton. The spreads between the domestic and foreign markets and between different varieties maintained narrow - range fluctuations, and there was no obvious structural differentiation [3]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The report presents data on iron ore futures positions, trading volume, and exchange - registered warrants through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [11][12][16]. 3.5 Spot Market - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: The report presents data on the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder price through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [17][19][22]. - **Lump - to - Powder Ore Price Spread**: The report presents data on the blending ore price spread, lump - to - powder ore price spread, and price spreads between different grades through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [23][26][29]. 3.6 Market Viewpoint Summary - **Overall Market Viewpoint Summary**: The market was in a state of loose supply and demand but with improved expectations. With high inventories, prices fluctuated strongly, and macro - sentiment supported prices. - **This Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 5 institutions were bullish, 7 were neutral, and 1 was bearish. - **Last Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 3 institutions were bullish, 12 were neutral, and 3 were bearish. - **Points of Disagreement and Expected Differences**: The game between the expected marginal improvement in supply and demand and high inventories and weak demand dominated the short - term divergence in the iron ore market [6]. 3.7 Key News and Industrial Chain Dynamics - **Steel Mill Dynamics**: On December 23, 2025, MagIron, a US steel raw material developer, planned to acquire the local Reynolds pellet plant; on December 24, 2025, Morocco's Somasteel company invested tens of millions of dollars to build a new steel mill; on December 26, 2025, the No. 2 blast furnace of ArcelorMittal's Fos - sur - Mer steel mill in France fully resumed production after a fire [4]. - **Mine Dynamics**: On December 22, 2025, Canadian mining company Champion Iron planned to acquire Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber for $289 million; on December 26, 2025, the Guinea iron ore project of US mining company Ivanhoe successfully obtained the railway and port use agreement; on December 26, 2025, Australian exploration company Pear Gull completed the sale of its Parrot Island iron ore project [4]. - **Macro - news**: On December 22, 2025, the Premier of the State Council proposed to plan a number of major projects that could drive the overall situation; on December 22, 2025, the December LPR remained unchanged; on December 23, 2025, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation with increased trading volume; on December 23, 2025, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed to promote the spot - house sales system; on December 24, 2025, the initial value of the annualized growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%; on December 25, 2025, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000; on December 26, 2025, the renovation of old residential communities that started construction in the first 11 months had completed the annual plan; on December 26, 2025, China responded to the US tariff policy on China's semiconductor 301 investigation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - Consensus is beginning to form, marking a historical moment. The non-ferrous sector saw significant gains, particularly a 3.69% increase on a single day. The previously noted lagging performance of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities is gaining market recognition. Looking ahead, the report anticipates that commodity prices may continue to reach historical highs in 2026, suggesting active monitoring of investment opportunities in related sectors [9][13]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with soaring physical prices reflecting a fundamental reaction to the erosion of trust in fiat currency systems. On December 26, silver prices surged by 10.47% in London and 11.15% on COMEX, indicating a systemic re-evaluation of asset values. The report forecasts continued record-breaking prices for precious metals in 2026, recommending a focus on investment opportunities in this sector [14]. - Copper: Labor disputes may exacerbate supply shortages, with expectations for rising copper prices and smelting fees. A potential strike at the Mantoverde copper mine could impact production, with an estimated output of around 30,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2025. The report also notes that the National Development and Reform Commission is encouraging consolidation in the copper smelting industry, which may improve smelting fees. The outlook remains positive for copper prices and smelting fees in 2026 [15]. - Aluminum: The National Development and Reform Commission may promote mergers and acquisitions among alumina producers, with aluminum prices expected to reach new highs due to the copper-aluminum price ratio effect. The report highlights the potential for steady profit growth in electrolytic aluminum enterprises and the acceleration of aluminum substitution for copper in air conditioning applications [16]. Steel Industry - Supply and Demand: The report indicates a slight increase in pig iron production, while steel demand is showing marginal weakness. The weekly consumption of rebar was reported at 2.03 million tons, reflecting a significant decrease of 2.86% week-on-week and 7.70% year-on-year [17][19]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have decreased overall, with a slight accumulation in medium and heavy plates. Total inventory was reported at 8.73 million tons, down 3.74% week-on-week [22]. - Profitability: Cost differentiation is noted, with a recovery in steel profitability. The report states that the cost of long-process rebar has slightly decreased by 0.43%, while short-process costs have decreased by 0.13%. The profitability for long-process rebar has increased by 16 CNY per ton [29][32]. - Steel Prices: Overall steel prices have seen a slight decline, with the general steel price index decreasing by 0.28%. The report highlights that the price of cold-rolled steel has decreased by 0.58% week-on-week [36]. New Energy Metals - Supply: In November 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 84.78% year-on-year, reaching 82,300 tons. The report also notes a slight increase in hydroxide lithium production [40]. - Demand: The production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in November 2025 maintained significant year-on-year growth, with production at 1.771 million units, up 17.89% year-on-year [44]. - Prices: Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have all increased. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 120,400 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 16.89% [49].

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a stable upward trend, with a potential for a red closing in the upcoming trading days despite minor fluctuations [3][10][15] Industry Comparison - The market has shown a consistent expectation for a rally in technology and dividend stocks since March 2023, indicating that the investment opportunities are shifting towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks after a four-year lull [4][16] Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks across three main lines: 1) The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation due to technological empowerment and supply constraints, with a focus on new materials, chemicals, metals, and agricultural products [5][17] 2) The consumer sector, which has been stagnant for years, is at a turning point with generally undervalued stocks and supply contraction, suggesting potential price increases [5][17] 3) The manufacturing sector is transitioning from mere "story speculation" to validating "orders and revenues," with attention on communication, electronics, power equipment, and machinery that show performance verification expectations [5][17] Thematic Investments - Key areas of focus include: - Aerospace satellites, which are becoming a short-term market focal point, with potential for increased volatility and significant IPO progress in satellite networks and commercial rockets [6][18] - Price increases in upstream sectors, driven by supply contraction and structural demand growth, particularly in non-ferrous metals and new energy industries [6][18] - Artificial intelligence, which has shown rotation across various segments but with lower-than-expected intensity, suggesting a need for continued monitoring [6][18] - Nuclear fusion, which is moving from theoretical research to engineering practice, indicating a potential for significant investment demand as commercialization progresses [6][18] Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution - Domestic wafer fabs are expected to expand production next year, and the capitalization processes of major domestic memory chip manufacturers are advancing, highlighting opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers and semiconductor materials [7][19] Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector has seen prolonged adjustments, but potential industry catalysts may emerge in the first quarter, warranting attention on the solid-state battery supply chain [7][19]

年末煤炭供应显著收缩，动力煤短期有望 止跌 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251222-20251228） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）在港口逐步去库的背景下，动力煤价格有望止跌，焦煤价格短期在季节 性补库的背景下走势偏强；（2）近期煤炭板块持续回调，市场对煤价预期较为悲观，短 期煤价止跌有望带来板块情绪的回暖，建议关注板块止跌反弹的机会。 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 焦煤价格如期反弹，动力煤关注港口库存 | 2025-12-21 | | --- | -- ...

Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a focus on precise timing to capture excess returns within the established range around 3900 points [2][4] - The strategy emphasizes selecting mid-cap blue-chip stocks that show marginal improvements in performance, particularly in sectors with moderate valuations and low institutional allocations [2][4] Industry Strategy - The public utility sector is anticipated to benefit from the pricing of electricity commodities, which is expected to enhance the industry's valuation [2][4] - The report highlights the need for further reforms in electricity market pricing to support the increasingly complex new energy system in China, allowing for better pricing of various attributes of electricity commodities [2][4] Thematic Strategy - The smart driving industry is experiencing positive developments, with the approval of L3 autonomous driving vehicles by regulatory bodies, which is expected to accelerate the industrialization of L3 autonomous driving by 2026 [3][4] - Companies involved in smart driving hardware and software are likely to benefit from the growing market demand and supportive regulatory environment [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - Electricity consumption growth remains high, but there are signs of pressure on long-term contract electricity prices due to falling coal prices and high inventory levels [7] - The utility sector is viewed as a defensive asset, with low-priced utility assets worth attention [7] - The report suggests that the electricity market will gradually allow for better pricing of electricity attributes to support the complex new power system [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In November 2025, total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, a recovery from October's 4.2 percentage point decline, with a cumulative growth of 1.0% for January to November 2025 [10] - The growth rates for different sectors in November 2025 were: primary industry +7.9%, secondary industry +4.4%, tertiary industry +10.3%, and residential consumption +9.8% [10] - The report anticipates that December 2025 will see electricity consumption growth maintain around 5-6% due to ongoing growth in sectors like charging services and information technology [10] Electricity Prices - From December 19 to December 26, 2025, the average clearing price in Guangdong's electricity market was 308 RMB/MWh, up by 3.9% year-on-year [21] - In contrast, Shanxi's average market price dropped to 179 RMB/MWh, down 54.9% year-on-year [21] Coal Prices - Port coal prices continue to decline, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 672 RMB/ton, down 4.4% week-on-week [24] - The report notes a divergence in pit coal prices, with Shanxi's Q5500 coal price stable at 550 RMB/ton, while Inner Mongolia's price fell by 1.7% [24] Hydrology - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level was 171 meters, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 meters, while inflow rates decreased by 13.7% year-on-year [31] Market Performance - The utility sector index rose by 0.8% but underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.9% [40] - Among sub-sectors, gas showed the highest weekly increase at +2.6%, while hydropower decreased by 0.8% [42] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on utility stocks, particularly in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, citing improved business models and growth potential [7]